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José Quintana Begins Rehab Assignment

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The Mets announced to reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday, that left-hander José Quintana has been assigned to Low-A St. Lucie to begin a rehab assignment. He started tonight’s game and tossed 26 pitches over a scoreless inning and a third, allowing two hits and a walk.

Quintana, 34, joined the Mets this offseason by signing a two-year, $26MM deal. Unfortunately, he has yet to make his debut as a Met due to requiring bone graft surgery for a benign lesion on one of his ribs. When that procedure was announced in March, it was reported that Quintana wouldn’t be able to return until July at the earliest. He seems to be on track to hit that target as long as the rehab assignment goes well. Pitchers can spend a maximum of 30 days on rehab assignments before they need to either be activated or shut down due to some kind of setback.

The imminent return of Quintana puts the Mets within range of having their planned rotation all together for the first time this season. In addition to Quintana’s ailment, Carlos Carrasco and Justin Verlander each spent some time on the IL, while Max Scherzer missed time due to a 10-game ban for foreign substance usage. All of that has left Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill as the only constants  in the rotation.

Those various hurdles have coincided with a slow start to the season for the club. Despite winning 101 games last year and having a very aggressive offseason where they ran the payroll up to record heights, they currently sport a record of 31-35, nine games behind Atlanta in the National League East. Thankfully for the Mets, a Wild Card position is far closer to their grasp, as they are only three games back in that race. Now that their rotation is nearing full strength, perhaps that gives them the boost they need to make a surge.

Quintana spent many years as a solid rotation member in Chicago, pitching for both the White Sox and the Cubs. He tossed over 200 innings in each season from 2013 to 2016, then tallied at least 170 frames in each of the next three campaigns. His ERA held steady between 3.20 and 4.68 in those years. He then missed most of the 2020 season due to a thumb injury and struggled badly in 2021, but bounced back nicely last year. Between the Pirates and Cardinals, he tossed 165 2/3 innings with a 2.93 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 46.4% ground ball rate.

If everyone stays healthy over the next few weeks, Quintana would likely displace Megill from the rotation, as he still has options and has struggled of late. He had a 3.88 ERA after his start on May 18 but has allowed 16 earned runs in his past 16 2/3 innings, bumping his ERA for the season to 5.14.

Mets Sign Luke Voit To Minor League Deal

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The Mets announced that they have signed first baseman Luke Voit to a minor league deal. He will join Triple-A Syracuse and be active tomorrow.

It’s been a rough season so far for Voit, 32, who got into 22 games with the Brewers but hit just .221/.284/.265 while striking out in 36.5% of his plate appearances. That led to Milwaukee releasing him back to the open market.

Voit’s production has been tailing off for a few years now, but this latest drop was the steepest. In the shortened 2020 season, Voit led the majors by hitting 22 home runs despite the truncated schedule. He slashed .277/.338/.610 on the year for a wRC+ of 153. But in 2021, he made multiple trips to the injured list and hit a diminished .239/.328/.437, wRC+ of 112. The Yankees effectively replaced him with Anthony Rizzo while he was hurt and then flipped Voit to the Padres going into 2022. He only lasted a few months in San Diego before going to the Nationals as part of the Juan Soto deal, finishing the year with a combined .226/.308/.402 line and 102 wRC+. He was non-tendered and joined the Brewers this year but dropped even further, as mentioned above.

Despite that downward trend, it’s not too surprising that the Mets are willing to take a shot. For one thing, they just lost their primary first baseman, as Pete Alonso is going to be sidelined for the next three to four weeks after getting hit by a pitch on his wrist. In the past few days, they’ve used Mark Canha and Mark Vientos to cover the cold corner. Canha is primarily an outfielder who hasn’t played the position regularly since 2015, while Vientos is a rookie who has hit just .167/.233/.256 through his first 86 major league plate appearances.

If Voit can get into a decent groove at Syracuse, he could perhaps force his way back into the picture. Doing so could push Canha back into the outfield or Vientos to the minors, depending on how things play out in the coming weeks. The other appeal for the Mets is the low cost. Since Voit was released, the Brewers remain on the hook for the remainder of his $2MM salary. Even if the Mets call him up to the big leagues, they would only have to pay him the prorated league minimum salary, with that amount subtracted from what the Brewers pay.

Steve Cohen “Frustrated” But Won’t Be “Reactionary” To Mets’ Slow Start

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After snapping a seven-game losing streak on Saturday, the Mets couldn’t remain in the win column today, dropping a 2-1 result to the Pirates.  The loss dropped New York’s record to 31-35, putting them in fourth place in the NL East and 9.5 games behind the first-place Braves.  The crowded NL standings mean that the Mets are only 3.5 games back of a wild card berth, yet obviously the Mets didn’t expect to find themselves in such a middling position after winning 101 games in 2022 and then augmenting their roster with a blockbuster offseason.

Since owner Steve Cohen has been so aggressive in his spending to make the Mets into a World Series contender, there has been a lot of speculation over whether or not Cohen’s desire to win could now manifest itself in managerial or front office changes in response to the Mets’ slow start.  However, as Cohen indicated to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, such changes don’t appear to be in the works, nor is he planning to “blow up” just to express public frustration.

“The reality is it’s not going to solve our problems,” Cohen said.  “And I think in some ways it can be demotivating….I think that’s the worst thing you can do is to be overly reactionary.  General fan reaction, it’s usually, ’I can’t believe Steve’s not going nuts, fire somebody.’  My answer to that is, ’OK, let’s say I went nuts.  Let’s say I fired somebody.  Then what?’  What does that accomplish?  Who are you gonna replace them with?  This is the middle of the season.  And then if you actually ask people [who are the replacements], they have no answers, other than they’re just angry, and I get that.  I’m frustrated too.”

While this isn’t exactly a clear vote of confidence in GM Billy Eppler or manager Buck Showalter, Cohen stated that he isn’t letting “recency bias” dictate his decisions, saying “You’re better off trying to manage through these periods and not throw your entire plans out the window.  It’s just not good management, good strategy.”  In one of multiple references Cohen made between the Mets and his hedge fund business, Cohen noted that “there are moments where we’ve drawn down really hard for whatever reasons — whether it’s markets, whether it’s something that we did wrong — it doesn’t mean I completely change or let people go.  I don’t operate that way.  These are challenges.  This is management.  This is the moment where you get to witness how your management deals with problems.”

Cohen made it clear that he isn’t pleased with the season to date, pointing to both a lack of results from the rotation as well as “mental errors” from the team at large.  But, “those are what I would call unforced errors that we can fix and we will because these are good guys who are working hard,” Cohen said, and he feels his pitching staff has too much talent to continue struggling.

“What is the odds this group of pitchers will pitch this way the entire season.  Probably unlikely,” Cohen said.  “That is why there is reason for optimism in a moment where it looks like the wheels have just come off….These are people who have performed in the past, and you’ve got to believe that it’s fixable.  I keep coming back to that: The best indicator of future performance is how they performed in the past.  And they have performed consistently well in the past.  That gives me optimism for the future.”

The Mets entered Sunday’s action ranked 25th of 30 teams in rotation ERA, as both under-performance and health issues have been pitfalls for the team’s starters.  Justin Verlander and Carlos Carrasco each missed significant time on the 15-day injured list, while Max Scherzer has battled some neck soreness and also served a 10-game suspension for use of a foreign substance on his hands while pitching.  Jose Quintana has yet to pitch at all this season due to a stress fracture in his ribs suffered during Spring Training, and isn’t expected back until July.  Beyond this veteran group, Kodai Senga has pitched well in his first MLB season, but Tylor Megill, David Peterson, and Joey Lucchesi have all struggled.

Latest On Mets' Rotation Plans

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  • Mike Puma of the New York Post suggested today that the Mets could look to skip the next start of right-hander Tylor Megill, who has struggled to a 5.14 ERA in 63 innings as a regular member of the club’s rotation this season. Things have gotten particularly difficult for Megill over the past three weeks, and the young right-hander has posted a ghastly 8.64 ERA in his last four starts, walking a whopping twelve batters while striking out just fourteen in 16 2/3 innings of work. As Puma notes, the club won’t require a fifth starter until they face the Astros on June 20, allowing them to either skip Megill’s next start and use him out of the bullpen for a period of time, or perhaps option Megill to Triple-A before giving Joey Lucchesi or David Peterson a look in the rotation. Manager Buck Showalter acknowledged that coming off days provide the club with flexibility, “especially in the bullpen if we wanted to add an arm.”

Mets Designate Tommy Hunter For Assignment

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The Mets have designated right-hander Tommy Hunter for assignment and optioned lefty Zach Muckenhirn to Triple-A, per a team announcement. In their places, the club has recalled right-hander John Curtiss and left-hander Josh Walker to the big league roster.

A first-round pick by the Rangers in the 2007 draft, Hunter is a veteran of sixteen MLB seasons with a career 4.07 ERA in 917 1/3 innings of work. After posting strong numbers for the Mets during the 2021 and 2022 seasons, with a 1.78 ERA in 30 1/3 innings, Hunter has struggled during his age 36 season. In 2023, Hunter has posted a 6.85 ERA in 23 2/3 innings. Some of those struggles have been thanks to an unusually low 56.8% strand rate, though Hunter has allowed far too much hard contact this season, with a 13.6% barrel rate and a HardHit rate of 45.5%. Should Hunter pass through waivers, he’ll have the option to elect free agency or stick with the Mets as bullpen depth at the Triple-A level.

As for Muckenhirn, the left-hander has allowed four runs on eleven hits and two walks in three appearances (six innings) during his limited time in the majors this season. He returns to Triple-A, where he has posted a 1.11 ERA in 24 1/3 innings of work this season, to serve as bullpen depth for the Mets going forward.

Joining the roster in the duo’s place are Curtiss and Walker. Curtiss, 30, has posted a 4.85 ERA in 13 innings of work for the Mets this season after not appearing in the big leagues in 2022 while rehabbing Tommy John surgery. Prior to going under the knife, Curtiss had posted a strong 2.86 ERA in 69 1/3 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season. Walker, meanwhile, made his big league debut for the Mets earlier this year, tossing a scoreless inning in his lone appearance.

Pete Alonso To Miss 3-4 Weeks With Bone Bruise, Sprain Of Left Wrist

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The Mets announced that first baseman Pete Alonso has been diagnosed with a bone bruise and a sprain of his left wrist, with the expected return timeline as three to four weeks. He has been placed on the 10-day injured list as part of a slate of moves that also involves right-hander Stephen Nogosek being designated for assignment. Infielder Luis Guillorme and left-hander Zach Muckenhirn were recalled in corresponding moves.

Additionally, the club announced that catcher Tomás Nido has been outrighted to Triple-A Syracuse and that right-hander Edwin Uceta underwent surgery to address a torn meniscus in his left knee, with an expected return timeline of eight weeks.

Losing Alonso is the biggest development for the Mets, of course. Reports emerged this morning suggesting MLB’s home run leader was headed to the IL. He’ll be out beyond the minimal stay, though the silver lining is that he didn’t suffer a fracture. Alonso’s absence likely opens first base for rookie Mark Vientos, who’s in the lineup at designated hitter tonight against Pittsburgh starter Rich Hill. Outfielder Mark Canha slides over to first base this evening.

Nogosek has logged action for the Mets in four different seasons. He’s worked 57 1/3 innings across 33 career relief outings, posting a 5.02 ERA. The Oregon product has tallied a career-high 25 2/3 frames this season, pitching to a 5.61 ERA with middling peripherals. He’s striking hitters out at a slightly below-average 21.2% rate while walking nearly 12% of opponents. He’s surrendered six home runs, one of which came off the bat of Marcell Ozuna in last night’s disheartening extra-inning loss to the Braves.

The 28-year-old Nogosek has exhausted his minor league option years. The Mets had no choice but to take him off the 40-man roster to remove him from the big league club. They’ll have a week to deal him or look to run him through waivers. If another team rolled the dice on a claim, they’d also have to keep him in the majors or designate him for assignment.

Nido went through the DFA process earlier in the week. The Mets reportedly explored trade scenarios after taking him off the roster but apparently didn’t find sufficient interest. They waived him instead. He’s gone unclaimed, in part on account of a $1.6MM salary this season and a guaranteed $2.1MM next year.

The Mets DFA Nido just before he was set to surpass five years of major league service. That meant that while he can technically decline the minor league assignment in favor of free agency, he’d have to relinquish that guaranteed money to do so. With other clubs apparently unwilling to match that deal, Nido is accepting the assignment to Syracuse, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. He’ll stick in the organization as a defensive depth option but no longer occupies a 40-man roster spot.

As for Uceta, he joined New York at the start of April on a waiver claim from the Pirates. He made one three-inning appearance at the big league level and pitched twice more in Triple-A. He initially landed on the injured list with an ankle sprain but apparently suffered a knee injury while rehabbing. The Mets could move him to the 60-day IL if they need a 40-man roster spot at some point, though the recent DFA’s of Nido and Nogosek have already dropped that tally to 38.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #6: The Cubs’ Fire Sale

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8 and No. 7. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 6…

The 2021 season marked a turning point in Cubs franchise history. Half a decade had elapsed since the team’s curse-breaking 2016 World Series run. The “dynasty” chatter that followed that seven-game victory over Cleveland never really manifested into reality. Chicago was a perennial contender, but that vaunted Cubs core never reached the World Series again and only won one game beyond the National League Division Series before the group was suddenly nearing the end of its time together.

Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks was a sensational group of talent around which to build, but Hendricks was the only one of the bunch to put pen to paper on an extension. The group continued inching closer to free agency, and as Lester and Arrieta declined in their latter years in Chicago, some of the shine wore off. The Cubs were a good team, but year after year, the season ended with now-former president of baseball operations Theo Epstein making similar comments about how the “offense broke” or something else went wrong.

Following a 2020 season that saw the Cubs swept out of a three-game Wild Card series against the Marlins in the expanded playoff format, Epstein stepped down from his role as president and turned baseball autonomy over to Jed Hoyer. It was baptism by fire in every sense of the cliche, as Hoyer faced a series of unenviable decisions, beginning with Schwarber. Fresh off a .188/.308/.393 showing in 244 plate appearances in 2020, Schwarber was non-tendered rather than offered a raise heading into his final year of arbitration. Not four weeks later, Yu Darvish was traded to the Padres in a salary-motivated deal that has to date produced just one prospect of any note (Owen Caissie).

Decision time was only just beginning for Hoyer and his staff. The Cubs would need to determine how to proceed with the trio of Bryant, Rizzo and Baez, each of whom were slated to become free agents following the 2021 season. Prior extension talks had never resulted in a deal — though Baez was reportedly quite close to signing before baseball grinded to a halt with the Covid pandemic in 2020. Chicago made one final effort to extend Rizzo that spring, but he spurned their five-year, $70MM offer (and has since banked three years and $56MM in guaranteed money with the Yankees).

The Cubs could’ve traded any of the bunch that offseason, and Bryant’s name in particular echoed throughout the rumor mill as much as it ever had. Ultimately, all three stayed put, and thus the ensuing narratives that would dominate the 2021 Cubs season were set into motion. Would any of Bryant, Baez or Rizzo stay? Was the core finally breaking up? Was this the team’s last chance?

The lackluster offseason headlined by trading the prior season’s Cy Young runner-up should’ve answered that final question on its own, but the Cubs surprised plenty of onlookers by not only fielding a competitive team but vying for first place in the division for much of the first few months. As late into the season as June 24, the Cubs were eight games over .500 and in a first-place tie for the NL Central lead with the Brewers.

A subsequent 11-game losing streak — the first of two 11-game losing streaks for that year’s Cubs — removed all doubt, however. By July 8, the Cubs were below .500, and the surging Brewers had remained hot. They held a 9.5-game lead over the second-place Reds, with Chicago and St. Louis tied for third in the division. The fire sale was coming, and virtually everyone knew it.

Rizzo was the first to go. A July 29 deal sent him to the Yankees in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Kevin Alcantara and 24-year-old righty Alexander Vizcaino. A day later, Baez was following Rizzo out of Wrigley. Traded alongside right-hander Trevor Williams, Baez went to the Mets in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. For the next 24 hours, there were serious questions about whether a trade for Bryant would ultimately come together, but in a buzzer-beating deal, Bryant was shipped to the Giants in exchange for 21-year-old outfielder Alexander Canario and 24-year-old righty Caleb Kilian.

You can perhaps call the inclusion of Baez cheating a little bit for the purposes of this series, because Williams’ inclusion meant it wasn’t *technically* a rental. The Mets acquired two months of control over Baez and a year-plus of Williams in this swap. That extra year of control over Williams surely factored into the decision to part with Crow-Armstrong to an extent, but this was a trade about acquiring Baez first and foremost. Baez caught fire down the stretch for the Mets, too, posting a huge .299/.371/.515 slash in 186 plate appearances. The Mets still missed postseason, however, and the trade surely stings when looking at what’s become of the player they surrendered.

Fast forward less than two years, and “PCA” is regarded as one of the sport’s top outfield prospects. He’s ranked within the top-30 overall prospects in the sport on the most recent lists Baseball America, MLB.com, FanGraphs and Keith Law of The Athletic. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has the “low” ranking on Crow-Armstrong… at No. 39 in the game. Regarded as plus-plus defender in center field with plus speed, Crow-Armstrong has opened the season with a .278/.345/.513 showing in Double-A (131 wRC+). He’s knocked eight homers, seven doubles and three of triples while going 13-for-17 in steals.

Obviously, the Cubs haven’t yet gotten any big league value out of Crow-Armstrong, but it’s rare for a team to acquire a prospect in exchange for a rental and see him almost immediately ascend to the point that he’s regarded as one of the top 15 to 30 prospects in all of baseball. If the Cubs wanted to do so — they surely don’t, to be clear — they could use Crow-Armstrong as a headline piece to acquire just about any controllable veteran who hits the market this summer or next offseason. The likelier path for PCA is that he’ll be given every opportunity to become a franchise center fielder for a still-retooling Cubs club.

There’s no nitpicking with the other two swaps in this three-for-one entry. Rizzo and Bryant were shipped out as two-month mercenaries in exchange for a quartet of prospects, although Rizzo took to the Bronx quite nicely and is now locked in as a Yankee through the 2024 season. There was plenty for the Yankees to like, as Rizzo hit .249/.340/.428 (113 wRC+) down the stretch, swatting eight homers and seven postseason doubles before tacking on another dinger in that year’s Wild Card loss to the Red Sox. In parts of three seasons as a Yankee, Rizzo is a .245/.344/.468 hitter with 51 home runs.

I doubt the Yankees regret making this swap, but it’s worked out nicely for the Cubs as well. Alcantara, now 20 years old, isn’t as highly regarded as Crow-Armstrong, but he entered the season ranked No. 91 on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect rankings. He’s dropped off that list after a slow start in High-A (.250/.281/.389), but he still sits at No. 75 at FanGraphs and is generally a very well regarded prospect.

It’s worth bearing in mind that those pedestrian High-A numbers have been posted against competition that is, on average, nearly two and a half years older than Alcantara. The towering 6’6″ toolbox is also just a season removed from a much heartier .273/.360/.451 showing in Class-A, where he was nearly two years younger than the league’s average player. He’s a ways off, but like Crow-Armstrong, Alcantara has significantly elevated his stock since that 2021 trade. If the Cubs were so inclined, he too could be a significant piece in any potential deadline trade for controllable big league help. That’s not likely to happen — granted, it’s a bit more plausible with Alcantara than with Crow-Armstrong — but Alcantara has become a reasonably high-profile prospect.

That’s not the case with the now-26-year-old Vizcaino, though the circumstances surrounding his departure from baseball remain unclear. The Cubs placed Vizcaino on the restricted list in 2022  after he failed to report to spring training. He spent the entire year on the restricted list. The Cubs non-tendered him last offseason, and he didn’t sign with another team. Details surrounding Vizcaino’s abrupt departure from the game are basically nonexistent. The obvious hope is that he’s happy and healthy wherever he’s at, but it’s a disappointing outcome for the Cubs.

As for the third and final chapter of this deadline trio, Bryant proved an important pickup for the Giants. True, San Francisco would’ve made the postseason regardless, evidenced by their MLB-best 107 wins that season, but they edged out the division-rival Dodgers for that NL West crown by a margin of just one game. Bryant’s solid .262/.344/.444 slash may not have been in line with his peak form, but he contributed a meaningful presence in the Giants’ lineup down the stretch. They’d go on to fall to those same Dodgers in the National League Division Series, but not through any fault of Bryant’s. He delivered an 8-for-17 performance in the NLDS, adding a homer and a walk with only three strikeouts in 18 total trips to the plate.

Unlike with the other two trades, Cubs fans have at least gotten a look at one element of this return, although the now-26-year-old Kilian’s big league work to date hasn’t been pretty. The 6’4″ righty is still widely regarded as one of the organization’s best pitching prospects, but he’s been tagged for 20 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings through a pair of very limited auditions. He’s pitched 148 Triple-A innings as a starter over the past two seasons, logging a 4.32 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate against an 11.1% walk rate.

Command wasn’t an issue for him prior to reaching Triple-A, but he struggled with walks last year. It’s encouraging that he’s walked just 6.8% of his opponents over his past seven Triple-A starts, pitching to a 3.09 ERA along the way, but Kilian has also plunked six hitters in that time so he’s not out of the woods with his shaky location just yet. He’s in the mix to come up and make some starts this year still, and depending on how he fares, Kilian could be a candidate for a rotation spot either later this season or in 2024.

As for Canario, he finished second among all minor leaguers with 37 home runs in 2022 and hit .252/.343/.556 across High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. He added 23 steals (in 26 tries) and walked at an 11% clip, though his 27.5% strikeout rate was more concerning. Baseball America calls him a potential low-average slugger with plenty of walks, above-average speed and above-average defense in right field. He hasn’t yet gotten a chance to build on last year’s breakout, as he dislocated his shoulder while playing in the Dominican Winter League.

We’re just shy of two years removed from the Cubs’ deadline fire sale, and while it’s still early to grade the overall strength of their return, things are looking promising. To trade three rental players and come away with a pair of top-100 prospects — including one who’s widely ranked in the top 25 — as well as a near-MLB starting pitcher and a strikeout-prone but prodigious slugging outfielder with power, speed and defensive upside is objectively impressive.

On the one hand, it’s a testament to the caliber of the players the Cubs were trading, but not all trades of star players result in this type of return. The Orioles have still barely gotten anything from the Manny Machado trade nearly five years after its completion. The Rangers’ trade of Darvish to the Dodgers netted them one immediate top prospect, but two years after the deal that prospect (Willie Calhoun) was already looking like a questionable big leaguer.

The tail-end of the development phase for the prospects acquired here — particularly Crow-Armstrong — will define this series of trades. But four of the five prospects acquired in this slate of trades have enhanced their stock since joining the Cubs, who now have a handful of near-MLB-ready talent and/or trade chips to show for parting with a trio of popular veterans. The 2021 trade deadline was a dark few days for Cubs fans, but there’s a good chance it’ll wind up leading to some brighter times ahead.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pete Alonso Likely Headed To Injured List

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Mets first baseman Pete Alonso was hit on the wrist by a pitch Wednesday and hasn’t played since. Initial X-rays came back negative and he was diagnosed with a contusion, but the diagnosis seems to be worsening. As the club was in Atlanta yesterday, he left for New York to undergo further testing, including an MRI. This morning, Jon Heyman of The New York Post tweets that there is “real concern” about Alonso hitting the injured list, potentially for weeks. Similarly, Will Sammon of The Athletic tweets that an IL stint seems likely.

An absence from Alonso is the last thing that the club needs at the moment. Having just been swept by their division rivals in Atlanta, they are now in fourth place in the National League East, 8.5 games behind Atlanta for the lead. Despite their 30-33 record, they’re only three games back of a Wild Card spot at the moment, but losing a player like Alonso surely wouldn’t help matters.

The Mets came into this season with their eyes set on competing, to put it mildly, as they ran up the highest payroll in baseball history. Their struggles are due to various players being hurt or falling short of expectations, but Alonso has continued to be remarkably consistent in his fifth major league season. He’s already launched 22 home runs and his .231/.326/.546 batting line translates to a 139 wRC+, indicating he’s been 39% better than league average. His wRC+ has been between 133 and 144 in each full season in which he’s participated.

Subtracting a bat of that caliber would be a blow to any lineup, but it would be especially noteworthy for the scuffling Mets club. With Alonso sitting out yesterday’s game, rookie Mark Vientos took over at first base. He has hit very well in the minors but is slashing .162/.179/.243 in the majors this year amid sporadic playing time. Perhaps a regular gig would help him get into a groove at the plate, but it wouldn’t be fair to expect him to simply jump up to Alonso’s level in short order.

The Mets have some significant games coming up on the schedule, which they may have to navigate without Alonso. They are in Pittsburgh this weekend to play the Pirates, the team currently holding the final playoff spot in the National League. The rest of the month sees them square off against the Yankees, Astros and Phillies, among others.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #10: Mets Get A Bullpen Fixture For Duda

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Yesterday we introduced a new series here at MLBTR where we’ll be running through the top returns teams have extracted when selling rental pieces at the summer trade deadline. It’s not an all-time list, but rather looking at recent history — specifically the 2017-21 deadlines — in an effort to contextualize just what sort of returns fans might be able to expect for their own teams this summer when marketing impending free agents to other clubs. Yesterday’s series intro included three honorable mentions as well as a handful of 2022 deadline swaps to keep an eye on in the coming years. (Broadly speaking, it’s too soon to gauge just which ’22 deals will yield the greatest dividends, hence their omission from the main list and highlighting in the Honorable Mentions portion.)

Kicking things off at No. 10 is a straight-up, one-for-one exchange between the Mets and Rays dating back to the 2017 deadline. On July 27, when this swap was formally announced, the Mets sat at 47-53 — six games below .500 and a hefty 14 games out of the race for the NL East title. The powerhouse NL West looked like a veritable lock to send three teams to the playoffs that year, with the Dodgers (71-31), D-backs (59-43) and Rockies (58-45) all holding commanding postseason odds. There were only two Wild Card spots at that point, leaving second- and third-place teams in other NL divisions with only one path to the playoffs. Given the Mets’ 14-game deficit behind the Nationals, they were clear candidates to sell.

And sell they did. While they made one forward-looking move by acquiring closer AJ Ramos from the Marlins in what ultimately amounted to a salary dump, the Mets traded off a pair of notable veterans and promoted then-top prospect Amed Rosario for his MLB debut. Shortly to follow Rosario would be fellow top prospect Dominic Smith, whose path to the Majors was carved out when the Mets sent slugger Lucas Duda to the Rays in exchange for a near-MLB-ready bullpen arm: right-hander Drew Smith.

After a disappointing and injury-marred 2016 season, Duda was in the midst of a strong 2017 campaign. In very Duda-esque fashion, he’d shown some platoon concerns and hit for a low average while sporting impressive on-base and slugging totals. In 291 trips to the plate, he was sitting on a .246/.347/.532 batting line with 17 home runs, 21 doubles, a 25.1% strikeout rate and a 12.7% walk rate. The Rays ate the remaining $2.6MM or so on Duda’s $7.25MM salary, perhaps hoping to lessen the cost of acquisition in the process.

Things didn’t pan out that way, however — for multiple reasons. First and foremost, the Rays simply didn’t get the production they’d hoped out of Duda. At 31 years old, he seemed to still be in his prime, but the slugger mustered just a .175/.285/.444 slash down the stretch. Duda quite clearly still hit for power (13 homers, .269 ISO), but his strikeout rate soared to 31% with his new club.

Had he been a low-average slugger with plenty of pop and walks that slugged some key postseason homers, the Rays would probably have taken that outcome. But Tampa Bay played sub-.500 ball the rest of the way, finishing out the year at 80-82 and missing the playoffs entirely. Duda wouldn’t have been a likely qualifying offer candidate even if the Rays had been able to make one, but the midseason trade rendered him ineligible for a QO, so the Rays simply let him walk for no compensation following the season. Duda signed with the Royals that offseason. His stint with the Rays lasted all of 200 plate appearances.

As far as the Mets’ return goes, things have played out quite nicely. The hope at the time of the swap was surely that Smith would be a quick-to-the-Majors arm. He’d somewhat surprisingly been traded twice in a span of three months, first going from the Tigers — who’d selected him in the third round of the 2015 draft — to the Rays in exchange for Mikie Mahtook. The trade to the Mets came after Smith had climbed to Triple-A in the Rays’ system.

At the time of the deal, Smith was sporting a 1.60 ERA with a 40-to-9 K/BB ratio in 45 innings split between the High-A, Double-A and Triple-A affiliates between his two prior organizations. Baseball America ranked him 24th among Tigers farmhands entering that season, praising a fastball that could reach 97 mph and an impressive 12-to-6 curveball. With his strong start in ’17, he’d clearly bolstered his stock over the course of the season.

Just as the Mets hoped, Smith was in the Majors by 2018. He debuted in late June, less than a year after being acquired, on the heels of a sub-3.00 ERA in Triple-A, and went on to pitch 28 innings of 3.54 ERA ball out of the bullpen. Smith’s rookie season didn’t feature much swing-and-miss, but he walked just five percent of his opponents, kept the ball in the yard and sat at 96.3 mph with his heater. It was a promising start — at least, until injury struck.

One of the knocks on Smith as a prospect had been some injury concern, and he indeed fell to one of the most common and severe injuries that plague all professional pitchers: a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. Smith missed the entire 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was limited to just seven innings in the shortened 2020 season. His efforts to quickly establish himself as a long-term piece in the Mets’ bullpen were delayed — but ultimately not derailed.

Smith returned in 2021 with a slightly diminished fastball (95.3 mph average) but far more bat-missing abilities. He pitched 41 1/3 innings of 2.40 ERA ball in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, striking out 24.8% of his opponents — a major increase from his rookie season’s mark of 15%. His swinging-strike rate jumped from 9.4% in 2018 to a hearty 13.3% in 2021. Smith’s command wasn’t as sharp (9.7%), but that’s hardly uncommon for a pitcher returning from major elbow surgery and a year-long layoff.

Little has changed in the two years since. Smith remains a fixture in the Mets’ stable of high-leverage options. He’s already picked up seven holds and two saves in 2023, and dating back to Opening Day 2021, he’s pitched 108 innings with an even 3.00 ERA, a 27% strikeout rate and a 9.3% walk rate. This year’s two saves are the first two of his career, and he’s now picked up 21 holds dating back to Opening Day 2022 (after spending much of ’21 in middle relief).

Smith isn’t a superstar by any stretch of the imagination, and he lost nearly two full seasons due to that Tommy John procedure. But he’s a consistent, steady presence in the Mets’ bullpen and is now up to 143 innings in his career, during which time he’s recorded a tidy 3.27 ERA. The Mets are using him in high-leverage spots more often, in part due to closer Edwin Diaz’s knee injury, but regardless of the reason for it, Smith is answering the call nicely.

Smith is already in his second-to-last season of club control, but as it stands, the Mets look as though they’ll end up with about four and a half seasons worth of a quality middle relief/setup arm. Setting aside the 6.43 ERA he yielded in just seven innings during the shortened 2020 season in the immediate aftermath of his Tommy John procedure, Smith has posted a 3.54 ERA or better in all four of his years as a member of the Mets’ bullpen. He’s come largely as advertised, though he’s dropped that aforementioned curveball in favor of a slider as his favored secondary offering. Since being acquired, Smith ranks fifth among Mets relievers in total innings, fifth in RA9-WAR and eighth in ERA.

Getting several years of a quality reliever in exchange for two months of a defensively limited slugger with platoon issues isn’t the type of heist that fans will be talking about for generations to come, but it’s the sort of underappreciated move that has compounding value. Every year that the Mets entrust Smith with a spot in the bullpen is a year they don’t have to go out and pay free-agent prices to sign someone to do the same job. Free-agent middle relievers and setup men can range from $4-10MM in terms of average annual value, and the results are scattershot at best. And, if a veteran struggles after signing the type of two-year deal in the $12-18MM price range that’s common for free-agent relievers, said team may well have to further dip into the farm to solidify the bullpen come deadline season. Then-Mets GM Sandy Alderson and his staff have to be quite pleased with how things have played out, as does the current Billy Eppler-led baseball operations staff.

Big Hype Prospects: Cowser, De La Cruz, Rushing, Vientos, Keith

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Last week’s lead Big Hype Prospect, Andrew Abbott, is already on his way to the Majors. Let’s see if we can pull the trick two weeks in a row.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Colton Cowser, 23, OF, BAL (AAA)
186 PA, 8 HR 5 SB, .347/.484/.590

When he hit the injured list with a quad injury in mid-May, Cowser was playing his way into Major League consideration. Cowser returned to action over the weekend, going a combined 4-for-5 with two walks, a double, and a homer. He’s produced multiple hits in 14 of 39 games this season. Cedric Mullins is currently sidelined with a groin injury. Although replacement center fielder Aaron Hicks has played well in his absence, underlying metrics suggest Hicks is toast. The club also has a partial opening at designated hitter which can be filled on a more permanent basis by Anthony Santander. Cowser has the athletic ability to stick in center field, but he could be a truly plus defender in the outfield corners. There’s concern he’ll struggle against left-handed pitching early in his career. At worst case, he looks like a high-probability strong-side platoon hitter. That’s why he’s creeping towards Top 10 prospect status on many lists.

Elly De La Cruz, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (AAA)
186 PA, 12 HR, 11 SB, .297/.398/.633

My recent fantasy chat included at least a half dozen questions about when De La Cruz will debut. I don’t have any special insight into the Reds thought process. The decision is complex, made even more so due to new service time and draft pick compensation rules. Role playing as the Reds, there is a certain attractiveness to following the Corbin Carroll model. As you’ll recall, Carroll debuted in late-August and performed decently in his debut. He’s now on pace to handily win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. The timing of his initial promotion ensured he would be club-controlled through 2028 (a contract extension has since further extended the Diamondbacks control). A later debut for De La Cruz would ensure he’s under control through at least 2029.

Were it up to me, he would be in the Majors tomorrow. Of all prospects in the minors, he has the least to prove. To my eyes, he’s the most physically impressive prospect since Fernando Tatis Jr. Among his most impressive traits are a 93.4-mph average exit velocity with a 118.8-mph max EV. This season, Matt Olson leads the league with a hardest-hit ball of 118.6-mph.

Dalton Rushing, 22, C, LAD (A+)
188 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .261/.431/.507

Rushing has followed up a wild 2022 debut with an impressive, discipline-forward performance. Defensive reviews of the left-handed hitting catching prospect skew vaguely negative. He’s a high-effort receiver who will need to work hard to polish his game. Since his bat is so advanced, a move to a corner position might be required so he can progress through the minors at a more rapid pace. The Dodgers are blessed with a number of highly regarded catchers. They can certainly afford for Rushing to play elsewhere. It might be advisable to get Rushing’s bat in Double-A before he becomes too accustomed to a 19.7 percent walk rate. Discipline is an excellent trait to possess, but it needs to be coupled with selective aggression within the strike zone.

For clarity the speculation about Rushing moving off catcher is my own based on the Dodgers inventory. I’ve not seen a scout suggest it’s necessary.

Mark Vientos, 23, DH, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 166 PA, 13 HR, .333/.416/.688

Vientos possesses (and gets to) incredibly consistent power in-game. Although he’s only hitting .188/.206/.281 in 34 plate appearances, his exit velocities (96.1-mph average, 112.8-mph max) tell another story. Among hitters with over 30 plate appearances, only Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have tallied higher average exit velocities. While it’s in part a small sample fluke, Vientos did average 94.5-mph in Triple-A. The flaws in his game could limit his ceiling. In particular, he tends to make low-angle, pulled contact. He’s expected to be strikeout prone. He could find himself cast as a second-division starter or limited to facing certain pitcher types.

Colt Keith, 21, 3B, DET (AA)
217 PA, 10 HR, 1 SB, .321/.396/.563

Keith has built upon a breakout 2022 in High-A by doing much the same in Double-A. He’s even trimmed three points from his swinging strike rate. There’s risk he’ll continue to move down the defensive spectrum. He was being trained as a second baseman last season, but he’s made only three starts at the keystone in 2023. His bat is his carrying characteristic, fueled by plus discipline and a willingness to ambush mistakes in the zone. Wherever he winds up defensively, his bat looks like it will play in the Majors.

Three More

Bryan Woo, SEA (23): The Mariners opted to jump Woo straight from Double-A for his debut last Saturday. His performance in Double-A was masterful (44 innings, 2.05 ERA). His first start, not so much (2 IP, 7 H, 6 R). Scouts have long loved the life and shape of his fastball. His slider and changeup remain works in progress.

Chase Hampton, NYY (21): One of the top-performing pitching prospects in the minors, Hampton is beginning to draw attention from scouts. His mid-90s fastball reportedly tunnels well with a plus slider and curve. As with many young power pitchers, his changeup lags behind his other offerings. Hampton has an 18.8 percent swinging strike rate in High-A.

Luken Baker, STL (26): A former second-round draft pick, Baker experienced a breakthrough in Triple-A this season, bashing 18 home runs in 244 plate appearances. He produced a 92.8-mph average and 113.5-mph max EV. Baker made his debut as the designated hitter on Sunday.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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