Mets Notes: Cespedes, Bautista, Duda, Bullpen, Colon, d’Arnaud
The Mets are hoping to have some clarity on Yoenis Cespedes‘ intentions by the end of the Winter Meetings next month, general manager Sandy Alderson told reporters at the GM Meetings today (via ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin). “I think realistically, from our standpoint this year, things will probably have to resolve themselves a lot sooner than they did last year,” said Alderson in reference to Cespedes, who didn’t re-sign with the Mets last winter until Jan. 26. “…[C]ertainly, from our standpoint, between now and the winter meetings, and through the end of the winter meetings, would be the right time to get some of these issues resolved.” Alderson added that he’s already met with Cespedes’ representatives once, though no contract offers or financial figures were exchanged. He’ll meet with Cespedes’ agent again at the GM Meetings this week, and notably, he also stated that he doesn’t have a cap on the number of guaranteed years he’d be willing to offer Cespedes.
More from the Mets’ GM and more on the team…
- One bat the Mets could turn to if Cespedes departs is apparently Jose Bautista. James Wagner of the New York Times tweets that the Mets have some degree of interest in Bautista and have already reached out to his representatives to set up a time to talk this week. That’s not the first time they’ve been connected to Bautista, either, as Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi listed the Mets as a possible landing spot for Bautista last week. While it’d certainly be a surprise to see Bautista, who is defensively challenged in right field at this stage of his career, land with an NL club, his bat would indeed balance out the lineup in the event of a Cespedes departure. Alderson mentioned (as noted in Rubin’s piece above) that the team would need to balance out the batting order should Cespedes leave, as the team is already too left-handed even with Cespedes in the fold.
- Interest in Bautista would seem counter-intuitive with a trio of corner outfielders already on board in Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce, and while it’s fair to speculate that one of them could be moved to first base (Bautista and Bruce are the worst outfield defenders of the bunch by a wide margin), that doesn’t seem likely. Alderson said today that first baseman Lucas Duda will be tendered a contract, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post, which seemingly eliminates the possibility of shifting one of those players around. Of course, it should also be stressed that at this juncture of the offseason, the interest in Bautista is likely preliminary and one of a couple dozen avenues which the Mets could theoretically pursue.
- Also via Sherman (Twitter links), Alderson said that the team was planning to target late-inning relief help even before domestic violence allegations were brought forth against closer Jeurys Familia, so it stands to reason that they’ll certainly be in that market now that a possible suspension could be given to Familia. However, he also added that the Mets were never inclined to play at the top of the market, so it doesn’t seem likely that names like Kenley Jansen or Aroldis Chapman will be on New York’s radar.
- Sticking with Sherman, the New York Post scribe also tweets that Alderson repeatedly talked about the team’s current rotation depth, prompting Sherman to suggest that re-signing the beloved Bartolo Colon might not be a front-burner issue for the Mets, if it’s even a consideration for the team at all. From my vantage point, the depth is nice, but bringing back Colon on a one-year deal to provide depth and perhaps step into a swingman role if all of New York’s young arms make full recoveries still seems like a worthwhile pursuit. Speaking speculatively, however, if an earnest run at re-signing Cespedes and adding an impact late-inning arm are both on the docket as well, then perhaps the Mets feel Colon is more of a luxury than a priority.
- Lastly, Sherman tweets that Alderson said the team has to figure out a way to make the catchers that are already in-house better, which does seem to indicate that Plan A, for the time being, is to stick with Travis d’Arnaud next year. Kevin Plawecki and Rene Rivera remain on the roster as backup candidates as well, though none of that trio hit especially well last season, and d’Arnaud has yet to shed the “injury-prone” label that has hung over him for most of his career. The free-agent market bears a few options in the form of Matt Wieters, Jason Castro and Nick Hundley (plus Wilson Ramos, although he’s recovering from a torn ACL and seems likely to be out for the first couple of months of the 2017 season), though each of that grouping comes with some question marks as well.
Mets Make Qualifying Offer To Neil Walker
The Mets have issued a qualifying offer to second baseman Neil Walker, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets. It’s no surprise to learn, too, that outfielder Yoenis Cespedes has also been extended the one-year, $17.2MM offer.
Walker was an obvious QO call before he underwent season-ending back surgery. But initial signs have been promising, with the veteran explaining that the procedure addressed a long-standing issue and ought to make it easier for him to perform going forward.
New York got exactly what it hoped for when it dealt Jon Niese to pick up the final season left on Walker’s deal. Now 31, the switch-hitting Walker provided 458 plate appearances of .282/.347/.476 hitting and popped 23 home runs on the year. It’s important to note, too, that Walker showed improvement in the field in 2016. Though he typically rates as a below-average defender, he ended the year with a neutral rating from DRS and a strong 11.1 runs saved by measure of UZR.
That overall output didn’t quite match the work of his predecessor, Daniel Murphy, who had a breakout year in his new digs in D.C. But it made Walker a quality everyday regular at a position of need, which is why he could end up returning. Whether the sides explore a multi-year arrangement over the coming week, while Walker considers the QO, remains to be seen, but a return could well make sense for both sides. If not, Walker will be an interesting free agent to watch, as teams weigh the injury uncertainty against his history of steady offensive production from an up-the-middle position.
Ten Players To Receive Qualifying Offers
Major League teams had until 5pm ET today to extend qualifying offers to their impending free agents — a decision that could significantly impact the market for a number of players this winter. For those unfamiliar with the process, the collective bargaining agreement stipulates that teams can make a “qualifying offer” to free agents that spent the entire season on the roster — midseason trades and signings are ineligible — if they wish to secure draft pick compensation for the loss of that player. The QO is a set one-year value determined by averaging the salaries of the top 125 players in the league. This year, the value of that sum comes to $17.2MM.
A player will have one week to survey the market and determine whether he wishes to accept the QO or reject in search of a more lucrative free-agent deal. If a player accepts the offer — something that has happened only three times since the system’s implementation in 2012 (Matt Wieters, Colby Rasmus and Brett Anderson) — that player is considered signed for the following season at $17.2MM. The contract is considered a free-agent deal, and as such, that player is not allowed to be traded without his consent until June 15.
If the player rejects a QO, he’s free to sign with any team for any amount (including the team from which he rejected the QO). However, whichever team signs a player that has rejected a QO must surrender its top unprotected pick in the upcoming draft (unless the player re-signs with the team that made the QO). The first 10 selections are protected, so those clubs would only be required to part with their second-highest pick. A team that signs multiple players that have rejected a QO continues to forfeit its top unprotected pick for each subsequent signing. The team that lost the free agent in question, meanwhile, will receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round. The order of comp picks, like the draft order itself, is determined based upon the previous year’s standings.
Last year there were a record 20 players to receive QOs (valued at $15.8MM based on 2015 salaries). There should be fewer this year, given the weak free-agent market, but there should still be a double-digit total of QOs extended. Here’s a list of who will reportedly receive qualifying offers thus far, and we’ll update this throughout the day and include the full list when the 5:00pm deadline has passed:
- Mark Trumbo, Orioles (link)
- Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies (link)
- Yoenis Cespedes, Mets (link)
- Neil Walker, Mets (link)
- Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays (link)
- Jose Bautista, Blue Jays (link)
- Ian Desmond, Rangers (link)
- Dexter Fowler, Cubs (link)
- Kenley Jansen, Dodgers (link)
- Justin Turner, Dodgers (link)
For a more in-depth explanation of the qualifying offer system, you can reference back to our post Explaining The Qualifying Offer System from last October. In the past, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has also spoken to both agents and general managers about the importance of avoiding the qualifying offer and the impact it has on teams’ decisions. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd, meanwhile, penned a pair of insightful posts in an effort to contextualize and assess the QO system and its purposes on the heels of the 2013-14 offseason.
Poll: Will Yoenis Cespedes Re-Sign With Mets?
In perhaps the least surprising development of the young offseason, star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes officially opted out of the two years and $47.5MM remaining on his contract with the Mets and become a free agent Saturday. One reason Cespedes chose to re-sign with New York on a three-year, $75MM deal last offseason was its willingness to give him a three-day opt-out window after the 2016 World Series. Now, having taken advantage of that exit clause, Cespedes is back on the market as arguably the top player available.
In an underwhelming free agent class, the 31-year-old Cespedes likely stands the best chance of landing a nine-figure accord prior to next season. Cespedes reportedly could have inked a five-year, $110MM contract with the Nationals last winter, but their offer came with a decade of heavily deferred payments that would have reduced the present-day value of the deal to $77MM. Back then, Cespedes was part of a class that featured seven players who signed contracts ranging from $110MM to $217MM in total value. Two of those standouts, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton, were fellow outfielders.
Cespedes won’t encounter competition along the lines of Heyward and Upton this year, which should help his cause in securing the highest-paying deal of the winter after he slashed .280/.354/.530 with 31 home runs in 543 plate appearances in 2016. That was the third excellent offensive season in the five-year major league career of Cespedes, a lifetime .272/.325/.494 hitter who has accounted for 18.6 fWAR and 18.7 bWAR in a combined 2,978 PAs with the Athletics, Red Sox, Tigers and Mets.
Having already played for four teams in a half-decade, the Cuban emigree has been a nomad since signing with Oakland in 2012. If Cespedes receives the type of deal he desires in the next few months, his days of switching uniforms should be over – at least for a while. Of course, now the question is whether he’ll remain in Queens or head to his fifth major league destination. Cespedes hopes to stay with the Mets, who acquired him from the Tigers prior to the 2015 trade deadline, but New York hadn’t opened contract talks with him as of Wednesday and once again doesn’t want to exceed three years on a contract. We’ll find out soon enough whether that’s unrealistic on the part of the Mets. In the meantime, they’ll tender Cespedes a qualifying offer by Monday’s deadline in order to receive a first-round pick as compensation if he signs elsewhere.
Ideally for the Mets (and for the player, it seems), they’ll re-up Cespedes to continue serving as the nucleus of their lineup. But considering they’re wary of engaging in a bidding war, it’s possible we’ve seen the last of Cespedes in a Mets uniform. How do you expect free agency to play out for him?
(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)
Will Yoenis Cespedes re-sign with the Mets?
-
No 68% (8,976)
-
Yes 32% (4,259)
Total votes: 13,235
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Offseason Outlook: New York Mets
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
Myriad injuries helped jeopardize the Mets’ postseason chances in 2016, but the team went on a tear over the final month and a half to secure its second straight playoff berth. Another World Series appearance wasn’t in the cards, though, as the Mets ran into October buzzsaw Madison Bumgarner and fell to the Giants in the National League wild-card game. Now, for the second offseason in a row, New York is in danger of losing lineup cornerstone Yoenis Cespedes.
Guaranteed Contracts
- David Wright, 3B: $67MM through 2020
- Juan Lagares, OF: $20MM through 2019 (club option for 2020)
- Curtis Granderson, OF: $15MM through 2017
- Jay Bruce, OF: $13MM through 2017
- Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: $8.25MM through 2017 (club option for 2018)
- Jose Reyes, INF: $507,500 through 2017
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)
- Lucas Duda (5.137) – $6.725MM
- Rene Rivera (5.070) – $2.2MM
- Addison Reed (5.001) – $10.6MM
- Matt Harvey (4.072) – $5.2MM
- Jeurys Familia (4.030) – $8.7MM
- Zack Wheeler (3.098) – $1.0MM
- Josh Edgin (3.097) – $800K
- Travis d’Arnaud (3.044) – $1.7MM
- Wilmer Flores (3.003) – $1.9MM
- Jacob deGrom (2.139) – $4.5MM
- Non-tender candidates: Rivera
Free Agents
- Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, James Loney, Bartolo Colon, Alejandro De Aza, Jerry Blevins, Fernando Salas, Kelly Johnson, Jon Niese, Justin Ruggiano
Mets Depth Chart; Mets Payroll Information
When the Mets acquired Cespedes from Detroit prior to the 2015 non-waiver trade deadline, they were three games above .500 and at risk of missing the playoffs for an eighth consecutive season. After his move to New York, Cespedes slashed an outstanding .287/.337/.604 to help lead the club to a 37-22 regular-season finish and an NL East title. Cespedes’ bat cooled off in the playoffs, particularly during the Mets’ five-game World Series loss to the Royals, but the outfielder was nonetheless instrumental in their return to relevance and would have been a significant loss had he signed elsewhere as a free agent. It appeared that would happen, but after he couldn’t find any offers to his liking on the market, Cespedes shockingly re-signed with the Mets on a three-year, $75MM deal in late January. That agreement came with a catch for the Mets, though: They had to give Cespedes a three-day opt-out window after this year’s World Series.
Shortly after the Fall Classic between the Cubs and Indians concluded, Cespedes unsurprisingly voided what was left of his contract in order to take another shot at free agency. Having batted .280/.354./530 with 31 home runs in 534 plate appearances this past season, the 31-year-old likely has a better chance than any other impending free agent to land an accord worth upward of nine figures. Cespedes has expressed a desire to spend the rest of his career with the Mets, but it’s difficult to envision him falling into their laps again on a deal similar to the one he just vacated.
This winter’s class of free agents is far less enticing than the group from last year, when fellow outfielders Jason Heyward and Justin Upton were among seven players to secure pacts well in excess of $100MM. That should drive up the price to sign Cespedes, for whom the Mets reportedly aren’t willing to engage in a bidding war or go past the three-year mark on a new contract. Between Cespedes’ opt-out and his latest foray into free agency, the Mets will issue him a qualifying offer. If he signs elsewhere, they’ll receive a first-round draft pick as compensation.
Yoenis Cespedes To Opt Out Of Contract With Mets
NOVEMBER 5: Cespedes has officially opted out of his contract, ESPN’s Adam Rubin writes. The Mets will extend him a qualifying offer on Monday.
OCTOBER 26: Outfielder Yoenis Cespedes plans to opt out of the two remaining years on his contract with the Mets, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. His deal gave him a choice between returning to the free agent market and taking $47.5MM for two more years in New York.
The decision to opt out has been expected for quite some time — if not from the dramatic moment the contract was signed in late January, then since Cespedes completed a mostly healthy and entirely productive campaign. Certainly, it has been apparent to the team that Cespedes would test the market, of course, so his decision won’t come as a surprise when it’s made official after the World Series.
Giving Cespedes an opt-out opportunity was a critical element of the Mets’ pitch to him last winter, when he took a smaller total contract (three years, $75MM) than some other teams offered. While the desire to return to New York certainly seemed to play a role, there was plenty of financial sense in the move as well.
Taking the Mets’ offer gave Cespedes the chance to take home $27.5MM for 2016 and then re-enter the market — which, it seems, is exactly what he’ll do. Alternative arrangements would have reportedly promised him as much as $110MM, but would’ve included deferrals, covered five years, and come without an opt-out opportunity.
That gambit seems likely to pay off, as the 31-year-old posted another huge season and now looks to be the biggest free agent target in a much weaker overall group of talent than was available last year. Cespedes followed up on his monster second half run with the Mets in 2015 with a .280/.354/.530 slash and 31 home runs over 543 plate appearances.
Best of all, perhaps, Cespedes showed increased plate discipline — he posted a career-high 9.4% walk rate — without letting the selectivity sap his power. While he didn’t repeat his stellar defensive metrics, that was due in part to the fact that Cespedes was pressed into duty in center (where he has never rated well) and perhaps also to a nagging quad injury.
Importantly, New York will still be able to slap a qualifying offer on Cespedes. He’ll obviously turn that one-year, $17.2MM contract down, but in doing so will enable the Mets to pick up a draft pick if he signs with another team. A second reunion certainly can’t be ruled out after the team surprised with the first, but it seems the Mets will either need to promise more than they’d probably like to or (perhaps more likely) sit back and wait to see whether Cespedes again fails to find a suitable payday from another organization.
Mets Outright Justin Ruggiano
The Mets have outrighted outfielder Justin Ruggiano off of the team’s 40-man roster, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports. Ruggiano elected free agency after clearing waivers.
After a brief stint early in the year with the Rangers, the 34-year-old was added by the Mets in July as the club sought to fill in for a variety of injured players. The hope was that he’d provide a boost from the right side of the plate, but his own maladies kept Ruggiano from playing much of a role (though he did have one rather memorable moment).
Ultimately, Ruggiano ended up taking just 26 plate appearances on the year, breaking a string of five consecutive seasons in which he had topped 100 trips to the plate. He did hit well in that very limited action, though, and also ended the 2015 season on a high note. With a .258/.322/.439 lifetime batting line to support him, Ruggiano figures to have a solid chance to earn a roster spot somewhere next spring.
Mets Intend To Make Qualifying Offer To Neil Walker
The Mets intend to make a $17.2MM qualifying offer to impending free agent Neil Walker, reports ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin. Around this time last month, Rubin reported that Walker would likely receive the QO so long as his recovery from the season-ending back surgery he underwent in September progressed well. It would seem, then, that Walker’s rehab remains on track.
Walker, 31, came to the Mets from the Pirates last winter in a one-for-one swap that sent Jon Niese to Pittsburgh. New York clearly got the better end of the deal, as Walker was one of the team’s best hitters, batting .282/.347/.476 and tying a career-high with 23 home runs. While his defense has been questioned in the past, he drew strong marks from both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved in 2016 and was a slam-dunk qualifying offer candidate prior to undergoing the aforementioned back surgery.
While some may question the Mets’ wisdom, if Walker’s recovery from the operation is going well, he’s a strong candidate to receive a multi-year deal that will guarantee him considerably more than he’d earn by accepting the QO. A sizable four-year deal seemed likely for Walker before his surgery, and while four years doesn’t feel as likely in the wake of his operation, a three-year pact at a considerable annual value would still be a more lucrative offer than a one-year deal at a higher rate. If Walker does decline the qualifying offer, any team that wishes to sign him will forfeit its top unprotected draft pick (the top 10 overall selections in the draft are protected), and the Mets will receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round.
In the event that Walker departs, the Mets aren’t short on internal options to replace him at second base. Jose Reyes‘ league-minimum option will be exercised by the team, and Wilmer Flores has plenty of experience at second base as well. Beyond that, rookie T.J. Rivera emerged from Triple-A Las Vegas and showed well in September this season, giving the Mets a variety of options to vie for playing time in 2017.
Mets To Exercise Options For Jay Bruce, Jose Reyes; Decline Jon Niese’s
The Mets will exercise their 2017 club options for outfielder Jay Bruce and infielder Jose Reyes, according to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, who adds that the team will decline left-hander Jon Niese‘s option (link via Adam Rubin of ESPN.com). Bruce will make $13MM next season, Reyes will earn the league minimum and Niese will collect a $500K buyout in lieu of the $10MM he’d have gotten had the Mets picked up his option.
With a .219/.294/.391 line in 187 plate appearances, Bruce performed poorly after the Mets acquired him from the Reds at the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline. Nevertheless, it’s unsurprising that the team is willing to retain him for next season, especially with fellow corner outfield option Yoenis Cespedes headed for free agency. If the Mets re-sign Cespedes or add other high-profile outfield help to go with Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto, it’s possible they’d shop Bruce, whose .265/.316/.559 line in 402 PAs with the Reds this season was enough for New York to send well-regarded infield prospect Dilson Herrera to Cincinnati for him. All told, Bruce slashed an above-average .250/.309/.506 with 33 home runs, thereby bouncing back from two straight miserable offensive seasons, though that’s not great production from a corner outfielder whose defense is questionable at best.
The controversial Reyes, meanwhile, rejoined the Mets on a minor league contract in July after serving a 51-game domestic violence suspension and receiving his release from the Rockies. From a baseball standpoint, the signing benefited the Mets this year, as he hit .267/.326/.443 with eight homers and nine steals across 445 PAs. Reyes, who previously thrived as a shortstop with the Mets from 2003-11, primarily played third base while filling in for the injured David Wright. He could continue to factor in at the hot corner in 2017, and it’s possible he’ll also see time as a second baseman and outfielder.
This year was also Niese’s second go-around with the Mets, whom they traded to the Pirates last offseason for second baseman Neil Walker. Niese was a steady option out of the Mets’ rotation from 2010-15, but he struggled mightily in Pittsburgh. That led the Pirates to trade Niese back to the Mets for reliever Antonio Bastardo at the deadline. In six appearances down the stretch, including four from the bullpen, Niese yielded 14 earned runs on 13 hits and nine walks in 11 innings. Between Pittsburgh and New York, he pitched to a 5.50 ERA in 121 frames and posted the worst home run-to-fly ball ratio of his career (22.1 percent). Otherwise, Niese’s strikeout and walk rates (6.55 and 3.5) were fairly normal, as was his ground-ball percentage (51.1). He’ll now join a free agent market overflowing with fellow back-end starters.
NL East Notes: WBC, Nats, Gonzalez, Blevins, Braves
For those of you looking for some rain delay reading during one of the craziest games in World Series history, here are a few notes from the NL East…
- Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper isn’t likely to participate in the upcoming World Baseball Classic, but ace Max Scherzer is open to the idea, writes Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. The WBC provides players with an opportunity to represent their country on a global stage but can be a source of scrutiny as well due to the enhanced risk of injury and, in pitchers’ cases, the increased workload they face when voluntarily adding some intense innings to their schedule before the regular season even gets underway.
- Janes also writes that the Nationals are likely to exercise their $12MM club option on lefty Gio Gonzalez. That doesn’t come as a significant surprise, as the free-agent market is devoid of starting pitching talent and, as she notes, Gonzalez would figure to command multi-year offers if he reached the open market. Furthermore, his contract contains a vesting option for the 2018 season, so he has two years of club control remaining, so long as he reaches 180 innings pitched in 2017. That’s no sure thing for Gonzalez, who is prone to abbreviated outings and high pitch counts. Those factors and the Nats’ bevy of young arms could prompt the team to explore the trade market for Gonzalez if they decide they’d like to move on, Janes notes, but I’d have to agree that simply declining his option makes little sense even if the team’s preference is to get younger.
- The Mets would like to have Jerry Blevins back in 2017 and covet a veteran lefty specialist to complement southpaws Josh Smoker and Josh Edgin, per ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin, but team officials expect that the 33-year-old Blevins will find a fairly lucrative multi-year deal in free agency this winter. Blevins was effective in 2016, tossing 42 innings of 2.79 ERA ball with 11.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 45.8 percent ground-ball rate while earning a $4MM salary. A multi-year pact does indeed seem possible for the lefty in spite of some curious reverse platoon splits. The .258/.313/.324 line that Blevins yielded to lefties appears to be largely driven by a .368 BABIP from same-handed opponents, and the .637 OPS that he surrendered is hardly a robust mark anyhow.
- The Braves have hired Orioles bullpen coach Dom Chiti as their new senior director of pitching, according to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter links). Atlanta is also adding former O’s pitching coach Dave Wallace, per Kubatko. Wallace will function as a roving instructor throughout the team’s minor league system. Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes that Wallace signed a two-year deal with the Braves and adds that the loss is notable for the Orioles organization, pointing out that Zach Britton credits the duo with his development into the dominant closer he has become.