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Yankees Sign Aaron Judge To Nine-Year Deal

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December 21: Judge will make even salaries of $40MM throughout the course of the deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

December 20: The Yankees have made it official today, announcing the deal.

December 7: The reigning American League MVP isn’t going anywhere. Free-agent outfielder Aaron Judge has agreed to terms on a new contract with the Yankees, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The deal, which is still pending a physical, will guarantee Judge $360MM over a nine-year term, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Aaron Judge

It’s the largest free-agent contract in MLB history, handily topping Bryce Harper’s previous $330MM record. The $40MM average annual value on the contract establishes a new record among position players and trails only the matching $43.333MM AAVs of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander — both of whom are on shorter-term deals — for the largest in MLB history. Judge is represented by Page Odle of PSI Sports Management.

Judge’s decision to remain in New York puts an end to a weeks-long saga that saw him primarily fixated on the Yankees and Giants, his two most serious suitors from the moment he rejected a qualifying offer issued by the Yankees. The Giants were reported to have made a similar offer yesterday, and Morosi tweets that Judge turned down higher offers after ultimately deciding he preferred to remain a Yankee. The Padres, notably, made a late offer worth a reported $400MM in an attempt to woo Judge, albeit to no avail. Judge will now likely spend his entire career in Yankee pinstripes, as the new contract will run through his age-39 season.

Judge famously bet on himself heading into the 2022 season, turning down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer from the Yankees in Spring Training. General manager Brian Cashman took the uncommon step of announcing the terms of the Yankees’ final offer to the public. While that unorthodox tactic upset Judge — as the outfielder himself has since publicly stated — it also leaves no doubt as to the numbers that were offered and thus gives a clear window into just how much the 2022 MVP gained in betting on himself. Judge’s gamble drew some scrutiny, but in the end, he secured an additional two years and a jaw-dropping $146.5MM — a 68.6% increase over the originally proposed guarantee.

It’s a massive win for Judge — one that was earned on the heels of a season the likes of which baseball fans have not seen since Barry Bonds dominated during the steroid era. Judge led the Majors in home runs, runs scored, RBIs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and total bases, finishing out the year with a comical .311/.425/.686 batting line and a new American League record of 62 home runs.

It’s nearly impossible to draw up a better platform season for a free agent. Judge not only captivated baseball fans but caught the attention of sports fans everywhere while chasing down Roger Maris’ longstanding record, evidenced by being named Time Magazine’s Athlete of the Year. Judge thrived in a national spotlight with the game’s highest-profile team and also almost singlehandedly prevented a second-half collapse by the Yankees. Judge mashed at a .349/.502/.784 clip following the All-Star break, belting 29 home runs and reaching base in more than half of his 307 plate appearances. The rest of the lineup, meanwhile, looked utterly lifeless in the season’s final months; non-Judge Yankees hitters combined for a disastrous .223/.292/.360 slash after the All-Star break.

Those heroics simultaneously pushed the Yankees to a division crown in the AL East (thus landing them a first-round bye in the newly expanded playoff format) and painted a gruesome picture for Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner of just what a Judge-less Yankee team might look like moving forward. While Judge finally went cold with a 1-for-16 slump in a brutal ALCS that saw his team score just nine total runs in a sweep at the hands of the eventual-champion Astros, it’s unlikely the Yankees would’ve even reached that point had he not put the team on his back in such dramatic fashion.

By measure of wRC+, which weights for a hitter’s league environment and home park, Judge was 107% better than an average big league hitter in 2022. It’s the highest single-season mark any qualified hitter has posted since Bonds in 2004, and if you prefer to set Bonds aside for PED reasons, Judge’s 2022 wRC+ is the best of any hitter since Ted Williams in 1957. There’s no overstating just how remarkable his 2022 season proved to be.

Of course, Judge is hardly a one-year wonder. Setting aside some struggles in a brief 2016 call-up that saw him tally just 95 plate appearances, the former No. 32 overall draft pick has been one of baseball’s best hitters for the past six seasons. A 52-homer campaign in 2017 earned Judge not only a unanimous selection as the American League Rookie of the Year but also a second-place finish in AL MVP voting. Injuries impacted each of his next three seasons, however. Judge missed nearly two months in 2018 when he fractured his wrist upon being hit by a pitch, and he missed time in 2019-20 with a severe oblique strain and a pair of calf strains.

Over the past two seasons, however, Judge has appeared in 94% of the Yankees’ games and been among the game’s very best players in the process. In addition to his 2022 MVP win, he earned a fourth-place finish in MVP balloting in 2021 after slashing .287/.373/.544 with 39 home runs. Virtually every batted-ball metric under the sun supports the notion that Judge is a generational talent at the plate. He led the Majors in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and max exit velocity in each of the past two seasons, according to Statcast, which also ranks Judge as MLB’s leader in “expected” slugging percentage and weighted on-base average in that span.

Judge’s power profile is so prodigious that it’s easy to overlook his defensive skill set, but doing so would undersell his all-around value. Listed at 6’7″ and 282 pounds, Judge might draw the assumption that he’s a plodding slugger who’s a liability with the glove, but that’s in no way reflective of reality. To the contrary, Judge’s 61 Defensive Runs Saved since his Major League debut tie him for eighth among all MLB players, regardless of position. Statcast placed his sprint speed in the 50th percentile among MLB players in 2022, while his arm strength landed in the 93rd percentile. Judge will surely slow down over the life of the contract, but at least for the time being, he’s even a viable option in center field, where he logged a career-high 632 innings this past season and turned in above-average marks in DRS, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average.

Since Judge’s first full season came at age 25 and he’s set to turn 31 early in the first season of his new contract, it’s easy to see why the Yankees initially tried to limit the contract to a seven-year term.  Instead, Judge’s legendary 2022 campaign pushed them to compete with other teams in free agency and offer a nine-year contract that will carry him through age 39.  Long-term contracts paying even through age 38 have been exceedingly rare in the last decade.  Arguably the only other player who’s done that without compromising on the average annual value is Mike Trout, who tacked on ten years and $360MM in a March 2019 extension.  In contrast, Phillies-for-life Bryce Harper and Trea Turner accepted AAVs of $25.4MM and $27.3MM, respectively.

Judge’s aging curve will be an issue for another day.  Looking at financial component of this agreement for 2023, it comes at an even larger cost to the Yankees than the bottom-line, $360MM guarantee. New York was about $5.8MM shy of the luxury-tax barrier prior to agreeing to terms with Judge, as projected by Roster Resource, and his $40MM AAV now catapults them into the second tier of luxury penalization.

As a second-time offender, they’re subject to a 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the luxury threshold and a 42.5% tax for the next $20MM. They’ll pay a 75% tax on the next $20MM by which they exceed the threshold and a 90% tax on every dollar spent thereafter. Judge bumps the Yankees to a projected $267.2MM worth of luxury obligations, meaning if the Yankees called it an offseason right now, they’d be on the hook for approximately $12.035MM in penalties. That seems unlikely, however, and any further additions will come with substantial taxes, as New York now sits $5.8MM shy of the third tier of penalties (and the aforementioned 75% tax rate). The Yankees have been reported to hold strong interest in free-agent ace Carlos Rodon, though it’s not clear whether Steinbrenner has the appetite for a $40MM AAV on Judge and an AAV approaching or even exceeding $30MM for Rodon.

It’s possible, if not likely, that they’ll look to get out from underneath the remainder of their onerous commitments to Josh Donaldson or Aaron Hicks via the trade market, but the Yankees would need to pay down a substantial portion of either player’s salary to facilitate such a trade (or take on another bad contract in return). There’s also been speculation about the Yankees possibly dealing from their sizable arbitration class, with infielder Gleyber Torres a commonly cited possibility.

Judge’s enormous AAV not only makes the Yankees a lock to repeat as a second-time luxury payor — it also makes them quite likely to be a third-time offender in 2024, when they’re already projected for nearly $170MM in luxury obligations. That figure doesn’t include any of the team’s arbitration-eligible players, and any multi-year additions this winter will increase that number. With Luis Severino, Frankie Montas and Harrison Bader all set for free agency following the 2023 campaign, the Yankees will likely be on the lookout for both rotation and outfield help in the next 12 to 15 months.

Those moving parts coalesce to demonstrate how quickly the Yankees’ luxury figure could balloon. Teams crossing the luxury tax for the third consecutive season are taxed at rates of 50% (first $20MM), 65% (next $20MM), 95% (next $20MM) and 110% (all dollars thereafter).

All of that is secondary to the Yankees, however, who entered the offseason hell-bent on retaining the league MVP and burgeoning franchise icon. They went to record-setting levels in order to make it happen, furthering the future market for star-caliber free agents in the process, but it’s surely a day for celebration in the organization regardless of any down-the-road consequences.

From a broader market perspective, Judge’s deal with the Yankees not only puts a bow on one of the highest-profile free agencies in recent memory — it’s also likely to serve as a facilitator for a flurry of subsequent moves. So much of the 2022-23 offseason hinged on Judge’s decision, that several teams and other top-tier free agents have been reluctant to act.

For instance, with Judge now remaining in New York, the Giants will likely turn their attention to the shortstop market, where they reportedly have Carlos Correa atop their list of targets. The Twins have been angling to re-sign Correa, but it was always in Correa’s best interest to see if the Giants might miss on Judge and jump into the bidding. If Correa departs Minnesota, the Twins reportedly view Xander Bogaerts as their top fallback option. As with Correa, then, it was in Bogaerts’ best interest to know where Judge landed before he made any sort of decision. All the while, the Red Sox have been hoping to keep Bogaerts, just as the Braves have been hoping to keep Dansby Swanson. But the Cubs, Dodgers and Cardinals have each been tied to the shortstop market, and the Padres have been aggressive in trying to add a marquee player of any shape or size and clearly still have money to spend.

The previously mentioned Rodon, too, likely needed to wait on Judge, given the Yankees’ interest. And it’s feasible that the next tier of free-agent pitchers, including Chris Bassitt and Kodai Senga, prefer to wait until Rodon comes off the board so that they can stand as the two top options and perhaps have increased leverage among rotation-hungry teams.

Viewed through that lens, Judge’s contract is far more than a watershed moment in Yankees franchise history, it’s a catalyst that’ll set off a chain reaction of franchise-altering decisions and megadeals throughout the sport — quite possibly within the next few days or weeks. While elated echoes of “All Rise” ring out through the Bronx, things are just getting started for the rest of the league.

Yankees Sign Carlos Rodon To Six-Year Deal

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December 21: The Yankees have officially announced the signing.

December 15: The best remaining free agent starter is headed to the Bronx. The Yankees are reportedly in agreement on a six-year, $162MM contract with Carlos Rodón. The Boras Corporation client will receive a $5MM signing bonus and a $22MM salary next season followed by successive $27MM salaries from 2024-28. The deal contains a full no-trade clause and runs through Rodón’s age-35 season.

New York pairs the addition with their record-setting deal for defending AL MVP Aaron Judge as part of a huge offseason. The guarantee ties that of Brandon Nimmo for the sixth-largest deal of the offseason. Rodón will finish with the second-largest guarantee among free agent pitchers, narrowly behind the five-year, $185MM pact Jacob deGrom inked with the Rangers.

It’s the culmination of an incredible two-season run. The left-hander entered the professional ranks eight years ago, selected by the White Sox with the third overall pick in the 2014 draft. Owner of a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, he was regarded as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter who’d quickly reach the big leagues. Rodón indeed found himself on Chicago’s south side by the middle of the 2015 campaign, and he posted a 3.90 ERA in 304 1/3 innings through the end of the following season.

Unfortunately, the Miami native’s career was then sidetracked by injuries. Rodón lost a chunk of the 2017 campaign to biceps bursitis, then underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery that September. He didn’t debut until June the following year, making 20 starts. Early the next season, Rodón was diagnosed with an elbow issue. He went back under the knife in May ’19, this time undergoing a Tommy John procedure. He missed the remainder of that year, returning at the tail end of the 2020 campaign for four appearances.

The mounting injury troubles led the White Sox to decline to tender him a contract heading into 2021. Chicago circled back towards the end of the offseason, bringing him back on a $3MM free agent deal. That move was met with a fair amount of criticism, but it turned into one of the best decisions of GM Rick Hahn’s tenure.

Rodón was brilliant in 2021, earning his first All-Star nod with a 2.31 ERA over 89 2/3 first-half innings. He looked on his way to a Cy Young award when he dealt with some shoulder fatigue in August. Rodón only missed a couple weeks and continued to pitch well upon his return, although his velocity dropped towards season’s end. The southpaw concluded the year with a 2.37 ERA and a massive 34.6% strikeout percentage across 132 2/3 innings. He placed fifth in Cy Young balloting.

The end-of-year shoulder issue and velocity dip seemed to scare the Chicago front office, however. They made the eyebrow-raising decision not to issue Rodón a qualifying offer, allowing him to hit the open market without draft compensation attached. He remained a free agent until after the lockout, when the Giants added him on a two-year, $44MM guarantee. The deal contained an opt-out clause after year one, conditional on Rodón reaching 110 innings pitched in 2022. It was an opportunity for the star hurler to bet on himself, knowing a nine-figure deal could be in the cards if he maintained his 2021 form over a full, healthy season.

Rodón did exactly that, doubling down with perhaps the best season of his career. He stayed healthy all year, making 31 starts and tallying a personal-high 178 innings. Rodón worked to a sterling 2.88 ERA. He earned a second straight All-Star nod and was among the game’s best at missing bats. Rodón fanned 33.4% of opponents against a solid 7.3% walk rate. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Braves rookier Spencer Strider bested that strikeout percentage. Strider, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole were the only pitchers with a larger gap between their strikeout and walk rates.

Almost as importantly, Rodón’s arsenal showed no ill effects after his 2021 dip. His fastball averaged a strong 95.5 MPH, making him one of the game’s harder-throwing lefty pitchers. He generated high-end spin and whiff rates on both his fastball and slider, and opposing hitters swung through a massive 14.1% of his total pitches. Rodón stifled batters from both sides of the plate; he held lefties to a .179/.257/.260 line, while hitters with the platoon advantage put together just a .207/.264/.319 mark.

A second season of elite performance, this one without any health scares, cemented the 30-year-old as one of the sport’s top pitchers. His career took a more winding road than expected when he was drafted, but Rodón has developed into a top-of-the-rotation starter. He made the easy decision to opt out of his deal with San Francisco after topping the necessary innings threshold, and he quickly turned down a qualifying offer.

It now looks like a potentially elite Yankee rotation. New York watched Jameson Taillon depart but upgrades with the Rodón addition. He and Cole are co-aces, backed up by breakout hurler Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. The latter two have had some injury concerns in recent seasons, but they’re overqualified as fourth and fifth starters if healthy. Domingo Germán, Clarke Schmidt and prospect Randy Vasquez are on hand as depth options who could step in if any of the top five get injured.

Rodón was one of three aces available in free agency, jointing deGrom and Justin Verlander. As the youngest of that trio, he always looked likely to secure the longest deal. The six-year term will be the longest for any pitcher this winter, although deGrom’s five-year contract and the stronger than expected market for mid-tier starters led to rumors Rodón’s camp was seeking a seven-year pact that’d push past $200MM. He falls well shy of that lofty hope, but the six-year, $162MM commitment is still quite strong for a pitcher.

It’s the first six-year commitment for a free agent pitcher since Cole and Stephen Strasburg pushed to nine and seven years, respectively, over the 2019-20 offseason. Patrick Corbin ($140MM) and Yu Darvish ($120MM) are the only other open market hurlers to reach six years since the start of the 2016 campaign. At the start of this offseason, MLBTR forecasted Rodón for a five-year, $140MM pact.

The cost for New York goes beyond the salary they’ll owe, as the deal pushes them even further into luxury tax territory. The Yankees were already set to pay the competitive balance tax, and adding Rodón pushes them towards the top tier of penalization. The contract comes with a $27MM average annual value, bringing New York’s CBT figure within a rounding error of the $293MM mark, according to Roster Resource. That’s the cutoff for the fourth CBT tier and places them around $60MM north of the $233MM base threshold.

New York also paid the luxury tax in 2022, so they’ll be subject to heightened penalties as a repeat payor. The Yankees will pay a 30% tax on their first $20MM in overages ($6MM), 42% on their next $20MM ($8.4MM), 75% on the next $20MM ($15MM) and 90% on every dollar spent above $293MM. Signing Rodón pushes them firmly to the top of the third threshold, essentially tacking on around $18MM in taxes. The $27MM salary will bring their raw payroll total around $277MM, which’ll easily be a franchise record.

Going past the third threshold will also push the Yankees first draft choice in 2024 down ten spots. Meanwhile, signing a player who’d turned down a qualifying offer will have a significant impact on their 2023 draft. New York is subject to the highest penalties as a team that paid the CBT this year. They’ll lose their second and fifth-highest selection in next summer’s amateur draft, while their international bonus allotment will drop by $1MM.

The Giants will receive compensation for Rodón’s departure. As a team that neither received revenue sharing payments nor paid the CBT this year, they’ll pick up a bonus selection between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of third round (typically around 75th overall) in next year’s draft. San Francisco had seemingly prepared for Rodón’s departure from the roster by making a pair of their preferred shorter-term rotation additions, bringing aboard Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling on two-year guarantees.

With Ródon off the board, Dansby Swanson is the last remaining free agent who’s likely to find a nine-figure deal. The free agent rotation market has mostly been covered at the top end, with Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber and Drew Rucinski standing as some of the top options still available. Needless to say, none of that group has the kind of upside Rodón does. It’s a bold bet from the Yankees, one they hope adds an impact arm to their playoff rotation as they look to advance past the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2009.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported Rodón and the Yankees had agreed to a six-year, $162MM deal that contained a full no-trade clause. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first to report the specific financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yankees Sign Michael Hermosillo, Demarcus Evans To Minor League Deals

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The Yankees have added a bit of minor league depth, signing outfielder Michael Hermosillo and right-hander Demarcus Evans to minor league deals, according to each player’s MLB transaction log (here and here).

Hermosillo, 28 next month, has spent the past two seasons with the Cubs. He hit just .115/.250/.148 without a home run across 73 plate appearances and 31 games in 2022. He spent much of the year on the injured list with a left quadriceps strain, and only made an additional ten appearances at the Triple-A level, hitting .324/.400/.559 in 40 plate appearances. While that sort of sample size is far too small to draw accurate conclusions, he did hit .306/.446/.592 over 186 plate appearances a year earlier at that level, so he certainly can hit at the highest level of the minors.

Originally drafted in the 28th round by the Angels in 2013, Hermosillo came up through their system and made his big league debut in 2018. Despite tallying some promising numbers coming through the minors, Hermosillo never hit enough in the big leagues to stick, putting up a .188/.287/.288 line over 118 plate appearances in three years with the Angels. Combined with his Cubs work, that makes for a career .167/.268/.283 line with four home runs over 229 plate appearances.

Defensively, Hermosillo logged most of his time in center field, but also spent some time in left as well. On the whole, he’s been worth 3 Outs Above Average in 312 2/3 career innings in center, 1 OAA in 115 innings in left and 1 OAA in 126 innings in right. So even if the bat doesn’t show up in the big leagues, there’s a solid glove-first depth piece for the Yankees to cover any injuries.

Evans, 26, didn’t pitch in the big leagues last year but made appearances over the prior two seasons for the Rangers. Originally drafted in the 25th round in 2015, Evans came up through the Rangers’ system flashing big strikeout stuff, averaging a 13.5 SO/9 over his minor league career. He got a brief cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2020, pitching four innings to a 2.25 ERA. A longer stint was ahead in 2021, but the results didn’t come, as Evans was tagged for a 5.13 ERA over 26 1/3 innings. Despite striking out batters at an above-average 27.5% clip, the walks were an issue for Evans, as he handed out free passes at a 13.3% rate.

At Triple-A this year, Evans tossed 33 innings of 3.82 ERA ball. The same issues that plagued his big league stint were evident in the upper minors, as Evans offset a strong strike out rate (30.1%) with a poor walk rate (15.1%). His fastball sits in the low-90s, and he mixes in a cutter and a curveball. He’ll give the Yankees a bit of minor league bullpen depth at worst, with a bit of upside there if they can straighten out his walk problems.

Yankees Agree To Minor League Deals With Art Warren, Jake Bauers

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The Yankees have agreed to minor league contracts with right-hander Art Warren and first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers, as first indicated on the transactions log at MiLB.com. Warren’s contract is a two-year minor league deal that includes an invitation to Major League Spring Training in 2024, I’m told.

Warren, 30 in March, spent the past two seasons with the Reds and is expected to miss the 2023 season after undergoing surgery to repair the UCL in his pitching elbow back in September. Given that lengthy recovery period, the Reds non-tendered him earlier in the offseason. He’ll now latch on with a new club in hopes of rehabbing his arm and pitching his way into the Yankees’ bullpen plans in 2024, when he’s back at full strength.

While the 2022 season wasn’t a good one for Warren — 6.50 ERA, career-worst 13.3% walk rate and 1.50 HR/9 — it’s fair to wonder how much his elbow’s health (or lack thereof) contributed to those struggles. Warren’s average fastball sat at 95.3 mph with Cincinnati in 2021 but dipped to 93.6 mph in 2022, and his overall results in a healthy 2021 showing were outstanding. The 6’3″, 230-pound righty parlayed a big strikeout rate in Triple-A into a Major League look with the Reds and delivered a 1.29 ERA with an eye-popping 41.5% strikeout rate in 21 innings of work. Only four pitchers (min. 20 innings) managed to top Warren’s 19.2% swinging-strike rate in 2021: Liam Hendriks, Raisel Iglesias, Josh Hader and Jacob deGrom. Suffice it to say, when healthy, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding Warren’s raw stuff.

Warren didn’t get a look in the Majors until his age-26 season with the Mariners, in part due to injuries, and he didn’t pitch in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season. The recent elbow issue will further cut into his opportunities, and he’ll be 31 by the time he has a legitimate chance to make the Yankees’ roster in 2024. If he makes the team at that point, he’ll be controllable for five years before he can become a free agent. For now, he won’t earn service time on the minor league deal but will be able to rehab at the Yankees’ facilities and with their training and medical staff.

As for Bauers, it’ll be his second stint with the Yankees, who signed him to a minor league deal last offseason as well and ultimately traded him to the Reds in exchange for cash over the summer. The 27-year-old former top prospect didn’t crack the big league roster with either club, hitting .226/.352/.406 with the Yankees’ Triple-A club and just .135/.276/.271 with the Reds’ top affiliate.

Bauers has appeared in parts of three Major League seasons, spending time with Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Seattle, but he’s managed a tepid .213/.307/.348 batting line in 1126 plate appearances. He’ll give the Yankees a left-handed depth option at first base and left field down in Scranton.

Yankees Interested In Nathan Eovaldi

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The top remaining free agent pitcher, Carlos Rodón, reportedly prefers the Yankees as his future club. They are interested in him as well, but the problem is that Rodón is seeking a deal of seven years or more at a significant salary while the club would prefer to keep it down to four or five years. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they will try to find a compromise but that the Yanks will also be considering Nathan Eovaldi as a backup plan.

Starting pitchers have been flying off the board in recent weeks, leaving Eovaldi as one of the best ones still out there. Over the past few seasons, Eovaldi has oscillated between being a very effective hurler and extended injury absences. After establishing himself in the majors with the Dodgers, Marlins and Yankees, he required Tommy John surgery late in 2016, wiping out the remainder of that season and the following one.

The Rays signed him for that 2017 season he was going to miss, with a $2MM option for 2018 that they eventually triggered. Up until that time, he had shown a powerful arm but without the strong results to match. He had a 4.21 ERA at that point in his career with a 17% strikeout rate. But 2018 proved to be a huge pivot point for him. He tossed 111 innings on the year with a 3.81 ERA and 22.2% strikeout rate. That included a midseason trade to the Red Sox, with Eovaldi going on to toss 22 1/3 innings in the postseason with a 1.61 ERA and 18.8% strikeout rate, helping the club win the World Series.

Those postseason heroics resulted in him returning to the Sox on a four-year, $68MM deal. Over the course of that contract, he’s continued to produce strong results but also deal with injuries. In 2019, he missed significant time due surgery to clean up loose bodies in his elbow. He was only able to log 67 2/3 innings that season with a 5.99 ERA. He bounced back in the shortened 2020 campaign, making nine starts with a 3.72 ERA, though he did miss time due to a calf strain.

He stayed healthy in 2021 and made 32 starts, posting a 3.75 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate. In 2022, injuries caught him again, as he went to the IL twice, once for back inflammation and once for shoulder inflammation. He still made 20 starts on the year with a 3.87 ERA and 22.4% strikeout rate, strong results but a concerning step back that came with diminished velocity. He averaged around 97 MPH in the first three years of his Boston deal but dipped to 95.7 MPH in 2022.

Despite that injury track record and Eovaldi’s rejection of a qualifying offer, MLBTR still predicted he would land a solid two-year contract worth $34MM, or $17MM per season. The free agent market has generally been quite strong this offseason, with many players outpacing their projections. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Eovaldi, who turns 33 in February, push for a third year or a higher average annual salary. Outside of him and Rodón, some of the best remaining starters on the open market are Noah Syndergaard, Michael Wacha, Corey Kluber, Drew Rucinski, Johnny Cueto, Drew Smyly and others. Those are still some quality arms but the options for a true impact upgrade for the rotation of a competitive team are dwindling.

For the Yankees, they don’t strictly need a starter, given that their rotation is in good shape. Ace Gerrit Cole should be followed by Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas, with one spot available for either Domingo Germán or Clarke Schmidt. Adding another pitcher like Rodón or Eovaldi would bump Germán and Schmidt down the chart while also providing some cover in case Severino or Montas struggle to stay healthy like they did in 2022.

The payroll might be an issue, however, as it’s been suggested that the club would prefer to stay under the third tier of the competitive balance tax, which is $273MM. By crossing that line, the financial penalties would increase and the club would also see its top 2023 draft pick moved back ten slots. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s payroll at $250MM with a CBT figure of $266MM. A mega deal for Rodón or even a more modest one for Eovaldi would send the club well beyond that third tier and could even push them close to the $293MM top tier. With other needs around the roster, including left field and the bullpen, whether the Yanks actually have an appetite for a rotation splurge remains to be seen.

Eovaldi has been connected to the Blue Jays this offseason, though that was before they signed Chris Bassitt. There’s also been rumors of a return to Boston though the latest reporting indicated he wasn’t a top priority for the club.

Latest On Carlos Rodon’s Market

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10:42pm: The Yankees have indeed put forth an offer to Rodon, Heyman writes. There’s apparently still a fair bit of work to do in order to get a deal done, as Heyman indicates there’s a notable gap between New York’s proposal and Rodon’s asking price.

2:55pm: Carlos Rodon is the clear top pitcher remaining on the open market, and despite a lofty asking price reportedly in the $200MM neighborhood, multiple clubs remain in pursuit of the left-hander. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported yesterday that the Yankees are prepping a formal offer for Rodon, and Brendan Kuty of NJ.com now tweets that the Yankees appear to be Rodon’s preferred landing spot. However, Kuty adds that both the Twins and the Cardinals both remain “seriously in play” for the southpaw as of this afternoon. Meanwhile, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that even after agreeing to identical two-year, $25MM deals with both Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea this week, the Giants are still involved in Rodon’s market.

The Twins’ interest in Rodon is perhaps contingent on the looming decision of Carlos Correa who, like Rodon, is represented by the Boras Corporation. Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggests that Correa remains the Twins’ top priority, though he adds that the team nonetheless made a pitch to Rodon earlier in the month (Twitter thread). Given that the Giants are viewed as Minnesota’s primary competition for Correa, it’s fair to wonder whether both clubs might be prioritizing Correa with the intent of pivoting to Rodon should they be spurned by Correa. That both players have the same agent makes concurrent negotiations a smoother process.

After agreeing to a three-year deal with free-agent catcher Christian Vazquez yesterday, Minnesota projects to about $107MM in total commitments for the upcoming season. That’s well shy of the more than $140MM they spent on last year’s Opening Day roster, but not so far south of the mark that it becomes easy to envision a scenario in which both Correa and Rodon sign on to call Target Field home. The Twins have drawn interest in right fielder Max Kepler this winter, but even in the event of a Kepler deal coming together, a Correa/Rodon combo would push Minnesota well past $150MM in total payroll for the first time in franchise history and would likely lock them into $75-80MM worth of annual commitments to the trio of Correa, Rodon and Byron Buxton.

The Giants, meanwhile, are roughly $43MM from their franchise-record Opening Day payroll even after their deals with Stripling and Manaea. Similarly, though, it’s difficult to see both players landing in San Francisco. The Giants are already a bit north of $180MM in terms of luxury obligations, and that pairing would likely push them into tax territory for the first time. That said, the Giants have topped $200MM in payroll before, and the only player currently signed beyond the 2024 season is Mitch Haniger, who’s signed through 2025. The Giants have been averse to long-term contracts under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, though they made hefty bids for both Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper under his watch.

As for the Cardinals, they were linked to Rodon this past weekend, and Kuty paints them as a fairly prominent player in the bidding. The Cards would make for something of a surprise bidder, having already spent $87.5MM to bring Willson Contreras to St. Louis on a five-year contract. Signing Rodon would likely mean doling out the largest commitment in franchise history and pushing payroll to height never before seen in St. Louis. The Cardinals’ current record for Opening Day payroll is a bit more north of $163MM, in 2021, but they’re already at that rough level right now Rodon could well take them north of $190MM.

Circling back to the Yankees, they at one point reportedly hoped to limit any Rodon deals to four or five years in length, though that doesn’t seem likely to get them in the ballpark. With Judge and Cole both locked into a combined $76MM in annual commitments through the 2028 season (2029 in Judge’s case), adding Rodon to the mix would require budgeting more than $100MM annually for a trio of players for at least the next six years. Giancarlo Stanton is under contract through 2027, as well, further complicating the long-term scenario for Rodon.

At present, Roster Resource projects a $266MM luxury-tax ledger for the Yankees. They’re already set to pay the tax for a second straight season, so they’ll owe $6MM on the first $20MM by which they cross the $233MM threshold and $8.5MM on the next $20MM. Once they reach $273MM in luxury obligations, they’ll be taxed at a rate of 75%, and they’d be taxed at 90% on any dollars beyond the $293MM mark.

Speculatively penciling in an even $30MM AAV (which could, of course, be off by a few million dollars one way or another), the Yankees would jump from their currently projected $11.74MM of penalties all the way up to about $32.65MM in penalties. In other words, they’d pay an approximate $21MM in taxes on top of Rodon’s actual salary for the 2023 season. Passing the luxury threshold by more than $40MM would also drop the Yankees’ top pick in the 2023 draft by 10 places, and any Rodon deal would make it quite difficult to drop under the tax line (and avoid even steeper tax rates as a third-time offender) in 2024.

Yankees Sign James Norwood To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees have signed right-hander James Norwood to a minor league deal, according to Jack Curry of YES Network. Norwood will presumably receive an invite to major league Spring Training, though no official announcement has been made.

Norwood, 29 later this month, has seen limited big league action in each of the past five seasons. Spending time with the Cubs, Padres and Phillies, he’s tallied a combined 44 1/3 innings over those seasons with a 5.48 ERA. In 2022, he threw 17 1/3 frames with an ERA of 8.31, though likely deserved better. His 25.9% strikeout rate was strong and his 10.6% walk rate high but within range of average. A .423 batting average on balls in play and 53% strand rate surely added some extra earned runs to his ledger.

It was a fairly similar story in Triple-A, with the righty posting a 4.87 ERA in 20 1/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters faced but was undone by a 12.5% walk rate, .358 BABIP and 56.7% strand rate.

Norwood will provide the Yanks with an experienced depth option and also a local connection. As noted by Curry, he went to All Hallows High School in the Bronx, just a couple of blocks away from Yankee Stadium. Norwood is out of options and will have to hang onto a roster spot if he earns one, or else be designated for assignment.

Yankees Preparing To Make Formal Contract Offer To Carlos Rodon

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The Yankees are expected to put forth a contract offer to Carlos Rodón in the coming days, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman has suggested on a few occasions the Yankees have serious interest in the top free agent starter remaining, and putting a formal proposal on the table would mark a notable step in that pursuit.

Terms of the proposal aren’t clear, though Heyman reiterates that New York is reluctant to offer the seven-plus guaranteed seasons the southpaw and his representatives at the Boras Corporation reportedly seek. A seventh year is a lofty goal for Rodón’s camp, assuming they’re not banking in a notable dip on an annual basis to compensate for the longer term. That doesn’t appear to be the case, as Heyman writes they’re looking for a deal that tops $200MM in guarantees.

That’s rare territory, as only six pitchers have surpassed the $200MM mark. Gerrit Cole stands head and shoulders above the pack at $324MM over nine years, with the rest of the group checking in between $206.5MM and $245MM. Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke are the only other hurlers to reach that level. A handful of additional free agent pitchers (Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, CC Sabathia and Barry Zito) have reached seven-plus years on deals under $200MM, but that’s itself a rare occurrence for a pitcher.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $140MM guarantee for Rodón. The free agent rotation market has generally been more robust than anticipated, and at least a six-year deal now seems very attainable for the two-time All-Star. Landing a seventh season at an annual salary below that projected $28MM — thereby decreasing the deal’s average annual value and lowering the luxury tax hit for a signing team — could be on the table. That’s been a common strategy this offseason, with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo all taking slight discounts on a per-year basis for very long deals with larger guarantees than forecasted. The best of both worlds for Rodón, of course, would be a seven-year term that doesn’t relinquish anything on an annual basis. It remains to be seen if a team will go to those lengths, with a seven-year pact requiring at least $28.57MM in annual salary to get to $200MM total.

Rodón is the only free agent ace still available. Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander were the two free agent hurlers who could rival or best Rodón from a performance perspective. Their ages limited them to shorter deals (five and two years, respectively) than the one Rodón is seeking. At age 30, the former third overall draftee has arguably the best combination of performance track record and youth among this year’s class of hurlers. However, he’s not without some question marks as a player with a Tommy John surgery and a shoulder procedure on his injury history.

The North Carolina State product stayed healthy in 2022, tossing a career-high 178 innings of 2.88 ERA ball for the Giants. He was brilliant for a second straight season, striking out a third of opponents with solid control. On a rate basis, he’s one of the sport’s top pitchers, but he doesn’t have the workload track record of any pitcher who’d previously gotten to $200MM.

Cole, Strasburg, Price, Kershaw, Scherzer and Grienke had all had multiple seasons with 200+ innings pitched prior to inking their megadeals; Rodón has never gotten to that level. Workload for starting pitchers continues to dwindle, though, and it stands to reason teams will increasingly value per-inning performance while weighing workload volume less as expectations for pitcher roles change.

New York and the incumbent Giants have been tied to Rodón on a few occasions, and Heyman added the Cardinals as a team with interest over the weekend. The Rangers, Mets and Blue Jays were tied to him earlier in the offseason, but Texas later added Andrew Heaney to join deGrom while Toronto agreed to terms with Chris Bassitt this evening. The Mets landed each of Verlander, José Quintana and Kodai Senga. The Orioles, Red Sox and Twins have also been very loosely linked to Rodón in prior reports, although the extent of the interest of all three clubs isn’t clear.

Yankees Have Discussed Outfield Trades With Twins, Diamondbacks

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The Yankees have had trade discussions with the Twins and Diamondbacks about their available outfielders, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post.

The Yankees already have two of their outfield positions accounted for, with Harrison Bader in center and Aaron Judge in right. There’s less certainty in left field, however, with Andrew Benintendi having departed via free agency. That leaves Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera as the remaining in-house options. Hicks is now 33 years old and has hit a combined .211/.322/.317 over the past two seasons. For a team in win-now mode like the Yankees, it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on him as an everyday option. Cabrera just made his major league debut and only has 44 games under his belt. He fared well in that time but is a natural infielder who was learning outfield on the fly, meaning he’s probably best utilized as a utility option as opposed to an everyday player.

The desire for the Yanks to upgrade there is logical, as is their choice of trade partners. It was recently reported that the Twins had received some trade interest on Max Kepler, given that they have a large number of other outfield options on the roster. Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras are all options to join Byron Buxton in the Minnesota outfield. Since all of those guys apart from Buxton and Kepler have less than three years of MLB service time, it’s likely that the Twins would have some reluctance to parting with them.

Kepler, on the other hand, has one year remaining on his extension, though with a club option for 2024. He’ll be making a salary of $8.5MM in 2023 with a $1MM buyout on the $10MM option. Kepler has hit right around league average for his career, as his .232/.317/.427 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 101. However, his defense has allowed him to be a consistently productive player. He’s produced at least 2.0 wins above replacement in each of the last six full seasons, according to FanGraphs, in addition to adding 1.1 fWAR in 2020.

As for the Diamondbacks, they are also flush with young outfielders that have reportedly been popular in trade talks. Corbin Carroll is considered one of the best young players in the game and is the least available of the group. But aside from him, the club has Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, Dominic Fletcher and Kyle Lewis in their outfield picture. Aside from Lewis, those guys all hit left-handed, as does Kepler.

A left-handed hitter would be a good fit in the Yankee lineup for a couple of reasons. First of all, the lineup skews right-handed, with Anthony Rizzo the only lefty who is currently likely to get regular playing time. Secondly, the club’s “short porch” in right field traditionally boosts the value of lefty hitters. With the upcoming ban on infield shifts for 2023, a lefty in pinstripes could sell out for hard contact and not have to worry as much about watching liners and grounders get swallowed up by the defense.

As for their preferences for a target, Sherman suggests the Yankees would prefer Varsho to Thomas. That’s not a surprising choice to make, given Varsho’s strong breakout campaign in 2022. He hit 27 home runs and stole 16 bases, producing an overall batting line of .235/.302/.443 for a wRC+ of 106. Varsho was also excellent in the field, with his all-around game leading to a 4.6 fWAR tally on the year. Thomas, meanwhile, hit just .231/.275/.344 in his MLB debut, leading to a wRC+ of 71. He was also strong on defense and was only 22 years old, turning 23 in April. He could still blossom into a great major leaguer but it might still take some time.

Of course, the Yanks won’t be alone in calling these clubs about their attractive outfielders. The previous reporting on the D-Backs had already listed the Brewers, Blue Jays, A’s, Marlins, White Sox and Reds as interested, while Sherman notes that the Mets were on the phone as well. They reportedly were trying to acquire Thomas, but when Arizona asked for prospect Brett Baty, the Mets decided to hang onto him and just sign Nimmo instead. If the Mets found the asking price on Thomas to be too high, it’s fair to wonder if the Yanks would want to pay it or go even higher for Varsho.

If the Yankees don’t find a deal to their liking on the trade market, Benintendi is still a free agent. Though he’s not quite the superstar who seemed to on the way to becoming earlier in his career, he’s still a solid regular. He only hit five home runs in 2022 but was solid in the field and hit .304/.373/.399 for a 122 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. MLBTR predicted he could land a contract of $54MM over four years, or $13.5MM per season. Sherman reports that Benintendi is looking for a five-year deal and it wouldn’t be a shock to see that come to fruition. Many players have landed much longer deals than expected this offseason, with each of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo getting deals at least three years longer than projected. With Judge and Nimmo off the board, Benintendi is arguably the top remaining outfielder on the open market, which might lead to his market picking up soon.

It’s possible that the competitive balance tax might play a factor in a free agent pursuit, as Sherman opines that the Yankees might prefer to stay under the third CBT tier of $273MM. By crossing that line, the financial penalties would go up and the club would see its top 2023 draft pick pushed back by ten slots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT number at $266MM, meaning that adding Benintendi or any other notable player could lead to the club attempting to find ways to shed salary, such as trying to trade Hicks or Josh Donaldson.

Latest On Padres’ Pursuit Of Aaron Judge

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The Padres were known to have made a spirited run at Aaron Judge between their pursuit of Trea Turner and eventual agreement with Xander Bogaerts. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested this week the Friars were prepared to put forth an offer around $400MM (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote they never formally made such an offer, but it’s clear the San Diego front office had at least contemplated a proposal that would have topped the offers made by both the Giants and Yankees.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post added some clarity on the matter last night, reporting the Padres were preparing an offer to Judge that’d have reached or exceeded $400MM over a whopping 14-year term. However, Heyman further hears Major League Baseball would have been prepared to veto such an arrangement if the sides had agreed upon it. Of course, it proved to be a moot point once Judge decided he wanted to return to the only organization he’s ever known.

MLB vetoing a record-breaking contract would’ve made for a fascinating story. The league’s justification for doing so would’ve been the contract length was an artificial means for the team of working around the competitive balance tax. A team’s luxury tax number is calculated by adding the average annual values of their commitments (plus player benefits and teams’ contributions to the pre-arbitration bonus pool). The luxury tax hit of any contract is evenly dispersed over the course of the deal regardless of the actual payout of the salaries or bonuses.

If we assume the Padres’ prepared offer was for exactly $400MM over 14 years, the deal would’ve come with an AAV around $28.57MM. That’s true no matter if the money were evenly distributed, frontloaded or backloaded. A $400MM guarantee would have handily topped the $365MM Mookie Betts received on his Dodgers extension and the $360MM in new money on the Mike Trout deal, establishing itself as the largest guarantee in MLB history. Distributing it over a 14-year term, however, would put the $28.57MM average yearly salary outside the top 20 in history.

A lower-payroll team may prefer to stretch a deal an extra season or two to lower their annual payment, but MLB’s concern is the Padres’ offer would’ve been done specifically as a means of circumventing the luxury tax. The Padres have paid the CBT in each of the last two years, and they’re certain to do so again in 2023. The Padres entered the week with their CBT number for 2023 hovering right around the $233MM base threshold. San Diego is responsible for a 50% tax on their first $20MM above the threshold and 62% of their next $20MM in overages, with further penalties thereafter.

Offering something like the nine-year, $360MM deal to which Judge actually agreed with the Yankees would’ve come with a $40MM AAV that stuck the Friars with approximately $22.4MM in taxes. Conversely, a 14-year, $400MM offer would’ve come with an additional tax bill around $15.3MM. The lower number on that contract would’ve also come into play if San Diego had made further additions to the payroll, with the Friars starting at a lesser CBT figure when calculating the tax hit associated with their subsequent pickups.

It’s understandable MLB would be wary of a blatant workaround to the luxury tax, which is designed to disincentivize spending among teams with already large payrolls. Yet it’s also somewhat curious to hear they’d have stepped in to veto that kind of proposal to Judge considering some large-market teams have already increasingly taken to a variation of this strategy: longer-term deals at comparatively lesser annual salaries to lower the CBT obligations.

The Padres themselves pivoted to something very similar the day after Judge turned them down. Bogaerts’ $280MM contract was spread over 11 years. The week before that, the Phillies (another team that paid the CBT in 2022 and is likely to do so again next year) stretched to 11 years to land Turner on a $300MM deal. A few years ago, Philadelphia went to 13 years to ink a then-record $330MM free agent deal for Bryce Harper.

Those commitments of more than a decade for superstars are the most obvious examples of stretching contracts longer than most had anticipated, but one could argue it sometimes occurs for the next tier of player as well. Brandon Nimmo was generally expected to land a five or six-year guarantee this offseason. The Mets went to eight years and $162MM, dropping the AAV to just above $20MM but pushing the total guarantee beyond the anticipated range. Two offseasons ago, the Yankees stretched a $90MM guarantee over six seasons (a $15MM annual salary that was below general expectations) for DJ LeMahieu, who was entering his age-32 season at the time. MLB has approved or is expected to approve — Nimmo’s deal has technically not yet been announced — all those contracts. The top free agent starter remaining, Carlos Rodón, is reportedly looking for a seven-plus year deal this offseason. It’s possible large-market teams will view a lengthier term as more desirable, if Rodón correspondingly drops his ask on per-year salary, for this reason.

Clubs have also built in workarounds for luxury tax purposes on contracts for role players via low-cost player options. Player options are treated as guaranteed money for CBT purposes. Tacking on a player option at the end of a contract thus adds an extra year with regards to determining its average annual value. Frontloading a contract and then attaching a lower-salaried player option at the end serves as an effective tax end-around as well. The player receives the bulk of the money on the deal during the guaranteed seasons and generally anticipates declining the player option. Injuries or underperformance could change that calculus, but the understanding of all involved at the time of the deal is that one of the purposes of the option year is to lessen the AAV.  The Mets (Taijuan Walker), Astros (Jake Odorizzi) and Yankees (Justin Wilson) have all handed out some variation of this contract in recent years. In each instance, MLB has accepted that transaction.

Of course, the league isn’t in position to preemptively create fixed rules to govern how much tinkering with the AAV constitutes luxury tax manipulation. MLB is left to evaluate things on a case-by-case basis. A 13-year deal for Harper that runs through his age-38 season was acceptable, as was an 11-year pact that goes through Turner’s age-40 campaign. A 14-year contract to take Judge through his age-44 season would evidently not have passed muster.

The Judge situation at least raises the possibility of MLB intervening on future deals it considers to be circumventions of the tax. That’d have the potential to lead to a battle with the union. The 2017-21 collective bargaining agreement mandated that all contracts be submitted to the Commissioner’s Office for approval. If the league rejected an agreed-upon deal, the MLB Players Association would have the right to file a grievance challenging the ruling. The new CBA has not yet been released in full, but there’s no indication that provision was altered. It won’t end up mattering in this instance with the defending AL MVP headed back to the Bronx, but it’s an interesting subplot to the negotiations for this winter’s top free agent.

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