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Yankees Could Keep Sonny Gray Into The Season

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The Yankees began the offseason with GM Brian Cashman openly stating that the team was going to shop Sonny Gray in trade talks this winter.  As Cashman said to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (Twitter links) and other reporters today, plans haven’t exactly changed on this front, as the Yankees’ “intention is to move Sonny Gray and relocate him.”  However, Cashman isn’t under any rush to move the right-hander, saying that the Yankees will only trade Gray “when we get the proper return, in our estimation. It’ll happen this winter, it’ll happen in the spring or it’ll happen sometime during the season.”

Notably, Cashman cited C.C. Sabathia’s recent angioplasty as a reason for why Gray could still be in the pinstripes come Opening Day.  While Sabathia wasn’t expected to face any complications from the procedure and was still expected to be ready to pitch this coming season, Cashman said the situation “has given us pause” about dealing Gray.  Given the understandable concern attached to any type of heart surgery, it could be that the team simply wants to make sure that Sabathia is fully healthy before going ahead and shipping off another rotation member.

The Yankees had already worked to fill Gray’s spot in the pitching staff this winter, between acquiring James Paxton in a blockbuster deal with the Mariners and re-signing Sabathia and J.A. Happ.  That trio joins Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka in what should be a very solid starting five, and it doesn’t leave any room for Gray unless an injury develops or Sabathia needs more recovery time.

There has been so much interest in Gray this winter that there hasn’t been much exploration about what the Yankees might do if they couldn’t find a trade partner for the right-hander.  This is just my speculation, but New York begin the year by making Gray something of a de facto sixth starter, only using him in road starts as a nod to his much-superior numbers outside of Yankee Stadium.  With a sixth starter and multiple off-days in April, this scenario allows the Yankees to ease their starters (all veterans, and most with significant injury histories) into the new campaign.  Gray could also be used out of the bullpen, though one would think the Yankees would want to keep him stretched out as a starter to appeal more to trade suitors.

Assuming a clean bill of health for Sabathia, it still seems quite likely that Gray begins the season on another roster, even if a trade doesn’t come until February or March.  Obviously Cashman isn’t going to deal Gray just for the sake of dumping him, though it could be that the team might have to lower its very high asking price in order to accommodate a deal at some point.  Waiting to deal Gray could give teams a chance to address its pitching needs in free agent signings or other trades, though conversely, a team could face a rotation injury in Spring Training injury and suddenly have a greater need for Gray’s services.

Yankees Designate A.J. Cole For Assignment

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The Yankees announced that they’ve designated righty A.J. Cole for assignment in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Troy Tulowitzki, whose one-year, Major League contract is now official.

The Yankees bought Cole from the Nationals last April, acquiring him in exchange for cash after Washington had designated the one-time top prospect for assignment themselves. Cole gave the Yankees 38 innings of 4.26 ERA ball from that point forth, pitching in primarily a multi-inning relief role. Along the way, Cole offered some signs of encouragement, as he averaged 11.6 K/9 and registered an enormous 15.9 percent swinging-strike rate with a very good 34.3 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches.

However, Cole was also exorbitantly homer-prone, yielding nine long balls for an average of 2.13 homers per nine innings pitched. That’s been an ongoing problem for the 26-year-old in each of the past three MLB seasons, as he’s averaged a staggering 1.9 homers per nine innings in that time. In 148 innings at the big league level, Cole has a 5.05 ERA with 9.2 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9.

Yankees Sign Troy Tulowitzki

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Jan. 4: The Yankees have officially announced the signing. Tulowitzki’s contract comes with a full no-trade clause, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

Jan. 3: Tulowitzki’s physical with the Yankees is taking place today, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

Jan. 1: The Yankees have agreed to a deal with free-agent shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, pending a physical, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports. It’s expected to be for the league minimum, Passan adds, meaning the Yankees would pay Tulowitzki $555K, as the Blue Jays are on the hook for the remainder of the two years on his contract after releasing him. Tulowitzki is a client of TWC Sports.

The 34-year-old Tulowitzki will remain at shortstop with his new team, suggests Passan, who reports that the Yankees still haven’t ruled out signing free agent Manny Machado. Rather, they simply couldn’t pass up Tulowitzki on such an inexpensive salary. The Yankees were in position to land the five-time All-Star for a minimal fee because the AL East rival Blue Jays released him last month and ate the remaining $38MM on his contract in the process.

Tulowitzki was among the majors’ premier players with the Rockies from 2009-14, and he remained a solid contributor with the Blue Jays for two seasons after they acquired him in July 2015. Now, though, the oft-injured Tulowitzki is essentially coming off two lost seasons. He batted a career-worst .249/.300/.378 across 260 plate appearances and 66 games in 2017, which he missed most of on account of hamstring and ankle injuries. Tulowitzki then sat out all of 2018 because of bone spurs in both heels, and after the Blue Jays released him, general manager Ross Atkins called it “unlikely” Tulo would return in ’19 to play an “above-average” shortstop over a long season.

While Atkins and the Blue Jays were no longer interested in dealing with Tulowitzki’s injury issues, the ex-superstar drew plenty of looks from other teams after they cut him. In addition to the Yankees, at least 10 other clubs were on hand to watch Tulowitzki work out on Dec. 18. At the time, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reported Tulowitzki wanted to sign someplace where he could receive regular at-bats at one position. It seems he’ll get his wish in New York, where he’s in line to fill in for injured shortstop Didi Gregorius, who underwent Tommy John surgery on his left elbow in October. Gregorius is expected to return sometime during the summer.

Gregorius is coming off his second straight season of at least 4.0 fWAR – a mark Tulowitzki hasn’t reached since 2014. Realistically, Tulowitzki won’t come close to replicating the production a healthy Gregorius would have put up in ’19. Nevertheless, for a low cost, the Yankees are gambling that Tulowitzki’s a higher-upside play than the other shortstops available in a weak free-agent crop (Machado excluded).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

White Sox Have Made Formal Offer To Manny Machado

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Jan. 4: In a full column, Nightengale cites four sources in reporting that Chicago has indeed issued an offer to Machado. However, while there’s no specific dollar amount revealed, he suggests that it’s “likely closer to $200 million than $300 million” in total value.

Meanwhile, Fancred’s Jon Heyman characterizes the Sox as a “long shot” for Harper (Twitter link), perhaps further underscoring that Chicago is more focused on Machado. It’s worth noting, however, that Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that the South Siders’ presentation to Harper “impressed [him] more than he anticipated.”

Regardless, a Machado agreement hardly seems imminent. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required) that agent Dan Lozano is “barely engaging” teams on Machado at the moment and is instead “waiting for a team to jump.” The White Sox’ offer, while somewhat of a jump, doesn’t sound the be in the vicinity that most expected Machado to command.

Jan. 3: The White Sox have been frequently linked to both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado this offseason, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that they’re more engaged on Machado at the moment and recently extended a formal offer to the free-agent infielder. The ChiSox has not yet taken that step with Harper, Nightengale adds.

Details of the prospective contract aren’t known, though the very fact that a formal offer has been put forth is nonetheless notable. The White Sox have been motivated all offseason to add some established big league talent to their roster as they look to begin emerging from a rebuild, but to this point, the biggest names they’ve added have been reliever Alex Colome and right-hander Ivan Nova — both via the trade market. Adding Machado to the mix would be a clear signal that the Sox are earnestly attempting to turn the page.

The White Sox, though, have competition for both Harper and Machado, regardless of whether formal offers have been made or not. The Yankees and Phillies are reported to be active pursuers of Machado, while the Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies and Cubs are among the teams most prominently linked to Harper. In that same vein, Nightengale tweets that the Phillies’ signing of David Robertson today will likely turn their focus to both Harper and Machado, and other teams expect Philadelphia to be the high bidder on both free agents.

Similarly, WEEI’s Rob Bradford wrote earlier today that the Phillies’ pursuit of Harper and Machado could impact their approach to addressing the bullpen; Bradford suggested that the Phils, who had interest in Craig Kimbrel, would likely bow out on Kimbrel if they signed Harper or Machado. The fact that the Phillies proactively pursued a more affordable option for the back of their bullpen is of at least some note if there was a sense that they wouldn’t make a play for one of the top two position players and Kimbrel.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported yesterday that the White Sox were willing to make an offer of 10 years or more to Harper, though Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score followed that by saying the ChiSox weren’t willing to go beyond seven years for either Harper or Machado. Whatever the White Sox’ threshold is, they’ve apparently made their starting point known to Machado at this point. With Philadelphia having wrapped up some bullpen business earlier today, it stands to reason that they’ll follow suit in the relatively near future as well.

Quick Hits: Tulo, Napoli, Castellanos, Rays

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Troy Tulowitzki impressed enough in his December 16th showcase to draw genuine interest from as many as 16 major league clubs, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv. The Cubs were reportedly willing to hand Tulo their starting shortstop position at least until the end of Addison Russell’s suspension. The Pirates, as well, liked Tulo’s lateral mobility and overall athleticism enough to install him as their starting shortstop. The Angels were interested in him as a third baseman. By signing with the Yankees, however, Tulo arguably sees more playing time certainly than in Chicago, assuming Didi Gregorius’ injury will keep him out for longer than Russell. The Yankees fulfill (at least for now) his desire to stick at short, and they certainly figure to be more competitive than the Pirates. In context, there’s ample reason to understand New York’s appeal to Tulowitzki and vice versa, though the story changes if Manny Machado winds up in pinstripes. Of course, Tulo’s minimum salary deal would hardly be a deterrent to a Machado signing, but it could be yet another sign that Brian Cashman and the Yankees are more than content to enter 2019 without the divisive superstar. Let’s check in on a few other notes from around the game…

  • Interestingly, Mike Napoli interviewed with the Chicago Cubs before they filled their recent coaching vacancies, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s been less than a month since the former All-Star announced his retirement, but now that the Cubs went in a different direction, Napoli will have no trouble enjoying his time off. Napoli was always touted as a positive influence who buoyed clubhouse morale with intensity and charm, and there’s plenty reason to believe there is a future in coaching for him, if he so chooses.
  • The Tigers are no-doubt ready to deal Nick Castellanos, but they’re not ready to give him away, per mlive.com’s Evan Woodbery. GM Al Avila faced a similar quandary last offseason in trying to find a match for veteran Ian Kinsler. He settled on returning a pair of lower-tier prospects from the Angels, only one of whom registers on their list of top-30 prospects from MLB.com (Troy Montgomery at #29). Kinsler’s situation was complicated by a partial no-trade list, but the Tigers still ended up with a package not much different from what the Angels received when they moved him to Boston mid-season. The Tigers don’t appear ready to settle this time around, even if it means getting a lesser prospect mid-season or letting him walk at year’s end. The crux of the issue is that the Tigers view Castellanos as a robust offensive producer on a one-year deal coming off a career season and entering his prime. Trade partners, meanwhile, can paint Castellanos as an $11MM defensive liability. Of potential trade partners, the division rival Indians are still the most logical fit, and they’ve partnered even recently on the Leonys Martin deal last season. Still, finding middle ground on appropriate compensation for a player with such evaluative extremes is proving difficult. Avila and the Tigers, however, will not be cowed by the challenge, nor will they give in to it – at least for now.
  • The Tampa Bay Rays are reducing the seating capacity of Tropicana Field in order to create “a more intimate, entertaining, and appealing experience [for our fans],” per Carl Lisciandrello of the Tampa Bay Times. The new renovation plan will lower the seating capacity by roughly 6,000 to around 25,000 to 26,000. With an average daily attendance in 2018 of 14,258 that exceeded only the Marlins, the Rays are certainly taking a creative approach to attract more fans by lowering their capacity ceiling. While the initial optics of this renovation plan certainly invites a degree of ribbing, Rays ownership is wise to take a creative approach to growing a fanbase that has been historically lackluster, especially given the recent failure to finalize a deal for a new stadium in Ybor City. Outfielder Tommy Pham was the latest to criticize Rays’ fans in a recent interview on MLB Network Radio, saying, “It sucks going from playing in front of a great fan base to a team with really no fan base at all,” as chronicled by Anthony Barstow of the New York Post. The Rays have done the job of putting a competitive and exciting team on the field, now they’ll embark on better utilizing areas within the ballpark. Hopefully, there will be more fans there in 2019 to notice.

Yankees Reportedly “Focused” On Zach Britton

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2:45pm: Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees “seem focused” on Britton in their pursuit of bullpen upgrades, though he adds that the lefty is “believed” to have multiple offers in hand.

2:08pm: Today’s agreement between the Phillies and David Robertson could accelerate the market for lefty Zach Britton, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that Britton “looks like the next reliever to go.” Britton was a known target of the Phillies before they signed Robertson and of the Cardinals before they signed Andrew Miller, and Passan adds that Britton has “been in discussions” with the Yankees recently. The Athletic’s Jayson Stark tweeted this morning, too, that the Yankees are “heavily focused” on the bullpen market at the moment and listed Britton as a target.

As with any free agent, the asking price is a key, however, and Stark tweets that Britton and agent Scott Boras have been holding out for a four-year guarantee. That’s a huge ask for any reliever but particularly for one with Britton’s recent track record. Though there was a strong argument to be made that as recently as 2016, Britton was baseball’s premier reliever, the past two seasons have been decidedly less successful. Britton missed significant time in 2017 due to forearm issues and missed the first half of the 2018 campaign while recovering from surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon suffered in offseason workouts.

Because of those injuries, Britton has been limited to just 78 innings across the past two seasons and has had decidedly mixed results along the way. He’s registered a sharp 3.00 ERA in that time but also had diminished strikeout and walk numbers (7.3 K/9, 4.5 BB/9). Britton’s swinging-strike rate is down nearly five percent from its 17.2 percent peak in 2016, and his chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone has plummeted from a career-high 38.7 percent in 2015 to 29.5 percent last season. Velocity, too, has served as a red flag. Though Britton’s infamous sinker gained some speed as the 2018 season wore on and he distanced himself from that Achilles surgery, even his end-of-season velocity was well south of the 97.1 mph he averaged on his sinker in 2016.

None of that is to say that Britton is no longer a quality bullpen option. Even with diminished results, he’s still elite in terms of inducing ground-balls, limiting hard contact and avoiding the long ball. Given that he only just turned 31, it’s certainly plausible that a full offseason of rest and regular workouts could allow Britton to return to the pre-injury form he displayed from 2014-16 when he posted an unthinkable 1.38 ERA with a nearly 80 percent ground-ball rate, better than a strikeout per inning (9.3 K/9) and strong control (2.4 BB/9) through a span of 209 innings.

In that sense, Britton possesses a higher ceiling than any available reliever. However, his two most recent seasons should create some real cause for concern. Relievers with red flags can certainly still get paid — Miller secured a $25MM guarantee over two years from the Cardinals on the heels of an injury-marred season of his own — but a four-year pact would be a particularly strong outcome for a pitcher whose recent performance simply hasn’t aligned with his name value.

Latest On Yankees, Tulo, Machado

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  • The Yankees’ signing of Troy Tulowitzki doesn’t mean the team is out on Manny Machado by any means, Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines as part of a seven-tweet thread (all linked here).  That said, the Yankees wouldn’t publicize being out of the Machado sweepstakes anyway, as such a statement would violate Collective Bargaining Agreement rules about teams weighing in on free agents.  It also makes strategic sense for the Yankees to at least appear to still be in on Machado, if for no other reason than to force rival teams to spend more to sign him.  If Machado indeed doesn’t land in New York, Sherman feels the Yankees could address their infield needs by signing a player like Neil Walker or Adeiny Hechavarria to provide short-term help until Didi Gregorius is able to return.  Sherman suggests that infield help could also be found as part of a Sonny Gray trade package.

Yankees Discussed Three-Team Deal With Rangers, Braves

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  • Before the Rangers dealt Jurickson Profar to the Athletics as part of a three-team trade with the Rays, Texas also explored another three-team scenario involving the Yankees and Braves.  “There was traction, at one point,” Passan writes about a deal that would have seen the Yankees get Profar, the Braves get Sonny Gray, and Texas would have received a prospect (presumably from Atlanta’s farm system).
  • The Diamondbacks would only consider trading Robbie Ray for a very big return, with Passan noting that Arizona would want more for Ray than the Mariners received from the Yankees for James Paxton back in November.  While both Ray and Paxton are front-of-the-rotation southpaws with two remaining years of team control, Ray is almost three full years younger than Paxton, which would explain Arizona’s higher asking price.  That deal saw Seattle land an MLB-ready pitching prospect (Justus Sheffield), another young arm on the brink of the majors (Erik Swanson) and a promising lower-level position player (outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams).  It’s a steep price tag, though at least two teams with a lot of minor league depth have been linked to Ray in trade rumors.

    [SOURCE LINK]

Manny Machado May Have Hinted At Plans On Instagram

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  • Free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper raised eyebrows on social media last month when he “liked” an Instagram post relating to the Dodgers. Not to be outdone, fellow superstar free agent Manny Machado may have hinted about his own future plans on Instagram, as Jon Heyman of Fancred point outed out on Monday. Machado began following the YES Network, which broadcasts most Yankees games and which the franchise owns a portion of, only to quickly unfollow it when people took notice. Machado’s apparent interest in YES may be much ado about nothing, but for the moment, it has added a bit of intrigue to what looks like a three-horse race for his services.

Free Agent Faceoff: Robertson Vs. Britton Vs. Ottavino

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Seven-time All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel entered the winter as the undisputed No. 1 reliever available in free agency, but it’s not as easy to identify the second-best option on the open market. When the offseason commenced, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd lumped four relievers close together behind Kimbrel in terms of projected earning power. They forecast that Jeurys Familia, David Robertson and Zach Britton would each earn three-year, $33MM contracts, while Adam Ottavino would come in a bit behind at three years and $30MM. Familia’s now off the board, having rejoined the Mets on a three-year, $30MM guarantee, while fellow bullpen arms Andrew Miller, Joe Kelly and Joakim Soria have also received lucrative contracts.

With Familia, Miller, Kelly and Soria no longer in the free-agent mix, it’s clear that Robertson, Britton and Ottavino are the most desirable non-Kimbrel relievers without teams. There has been widespread interest in all three over the past couple months, with some of the same clubs in contention for multiple members of the group. But who’s the most appealing hurler among the trio?

Perhaps the answer is the right-handed Robertson, who has put together nine straight highly productive seasons of 60-plus innings. Undoubtedly one of the most durable and effective relievers in recent memory, the longtime Yankee is coming off a season in which he logged a 3.23 ERA/2.97 FIP with 11.76 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and a 45.3 percent groundball rate across a career-best 69 2/3 innings. Never one to rely on high-90s velocity, Robertson continued to confound hitters with his breaking stuff, as FanGraphs rated his curve as the most valuable pitch of its kind among 2018 relievers. Batters posted a dreadful .196 weighted on-base average against that pitch and an even worse .145 mark when he threw his slider, according to Statcast.

If there’s one concern with Robertson, it’s his age. He’s set to turn 34 in April, meaning it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll continue to thrive over the course of a multiyear deal. Britton, meanwhile, is three years younger, having turned 31 on Dec. 22. Aside from Kimbrel, Britton likely had the best peak of anyone in this winter’s class of free-agent relievers. The left-hander amassed anywhere from 65 2/3 innings to 76 1/3 in each season as the Orioles’ closer between 2014-16, a three-year span in which he converted 120 of 128 save opportunities, led relievers in groundball rate (77.9 percent), placed second in ERA (1.38) and recorded 9.26 K/9 against 2.37 BB/9.

Britton was close to infallible during his heyday, but he fell off between 2017-18, when forearm, knee and Achilles injuries limited him to 78 innings. Britton still managed a terrific 3.00 ERA and a fantastic 72.8 percent grounder rate in that period, which he spent with the O’s and Yankees. His K/9 (7.27) and BB/9 (4.5) each went in the wrong direction, though, and his power sinker wasn’t as imposing.

Unlike Robertson and Britton, Ottavino brings little game-ending experience to the table, evidenced by his 17 career saves. He’s also a onetime Tommy John surgery patient and a 33-year-old whose career with the Cardinals and Rockies hasn’t been all that consistent. The righty has put together a handful of outstanding seasons and a few poor campaigns, though it seems he found another gear in 2018. After a woeful 2017 in Colorado, Ottavino spent last offseason working to improve his command in his native New York City, as former FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik detailed in May, and the results were astounding.

Using primarily sliders and sinkers, Ottavino pitched to a 2.43 ERA/2.74 FIP with 12.98 K/9 and 4.17 BB/9 across a personal-best 77 2/3 frames last season. In the process, his first-pitch strike rate increased nearly 14 percent from 2017 and his out-of-zone swing rate climbed by almost 5 percent. Further, as Mike Petriello of MLB.com pointed out in October, Ottavino was a soft-contact wiz in 2018, trailing only all-world relievers Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen in xwOBA against (.229; Robertson’s was .276, while Britton checked in at .311).

Although it’s obvious that Ottavino’s career has been less impressive than those of Robertson and Britton, it’s possible he’s the best of the three right now. Cases could be made for both Robertson and Britton, however, and it’ll be interesting to see how much guaranteed money these three high-end relievers ultimately receive in the coming weeks. Which one would you sign?

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