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Padres Name Mike Shildt Manager

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11:30am: The Padres have announced the hiring of Shildt on a two-year contract.

“Mike is a proven winner as a manager at the Major League level, and he brings over two decades of experience in professional baseball to the position,” president of baseball ops A.J. Preller said in a prepared statement. “In his time here, Mike has displayed a strong baseball intellect, a passion for teaching the game, and has established relationships with players and staff at both the minor and Major League levels. We believe that Mike is the right person to lead the Padres forward in our continued pursuit of a World Series championship.”

10:48am: The Padres are set to name former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt their new manager, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. Dennis Lin of The Athletic adds that a formal announcement is expected today. Shildt has spent the past two seasons in the Padres’ player development department.

The Padres somewhat surprisingly wound up with a managerial vacancy this offseason after allowing now-former skipper Bob Melvin to interview with the Giants, who ultimately hired him and signed him to a three-year contract. He’d previously been under contract with the Padres through the 2024 season.

Shildt, 55, beat out a field of reported candidates including former Angels skipper Phil Nevin, current Padres bench coach Ryan Flaherty and Angels infield coach Benji Gil. Former Yankees bench coach, who was hired as the Mets’ manager earlier this month, also interviewed for the Padres post. San Diego had some level of interest in recently ousted Cubs skipper David Ross, though it’s not clear whether he ultimately interviewed for the position.

Shildt’s own ouster in St. Louis was something of a shocking development a couple years back. He’d been viewed as an extension candidate late in the season as the Cardinals rattled off 17 consecutive wins to surge back into postseason contention, and there’d been no public indication that Shildt’s job was in jeopardy. However, Cards president of baseball ops John Mozeliak cited “philosophical differences” for the rationale behind the move, with additional reported details filtering out in the days and weeks following the decision.

The dismissal of Shildt was particularly surprising given the Cardinals’ success under his watch. His St. Louis predecessor, Mike Matheny, was fired midseason in 2018 after a 47-46 start to the year. The Cards went 41-28 under Shildt to close out that season, and his next three years produced records of 91-71, 30-28 (during the pandemic-shortened season) and 90-72. Shildt was named the National League Manager of the Year in 2019 and finished third in 2021. Overall, he was 252-199 as the Cardinals’ skipper.

Shildt will now get a second crack at managing in the big leagues. His appointment in San Diego will somewhat incredibly make him the fourth full-time Padres manager in a span of just six years (and fifth if you include interim skipper Rod Barajas, who finished out the 2019 season after Andy Green was let go). San Diego hasn’t had a manager last more than three full seasons on the job since Bud Black helmed the club from 2007-15.

In addition to his time as the Cardinals’ manager, Shildt has a lengthy background in a baseball career that began as a scout in the early 2000s. He eventually was named a coach in the low levels of the Cardinals’ system, slowly rising through the ranks and holding a variety of coaching titles as he climbed the organizational ladder. The Cards added him to their Major League staff as Matheny’s bench coach in 2017. He’ll bring more than two decades of experience in scouting, coaching and player development to the table as the new dugout leader in San Diego.

Braves Sign Reynaldo Lopez

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The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve signed right-hander Reynaldo Lopez to a three-year contract that will guarantee him $30MM. The CAA client will be paid $4MM in 2024 and $11MM in both 2025 and 2026. There’s an $8MM club option for the 2027 season with a $4MM buyout.

Lopez becomes the fifth name added to the Braves’ bullpen mix since their season ended, joining re-signed righties Joe Jimenez (three years, $26MM) and Pierce Johnson (two years, $14.25MM) and trade acquisitions Aaron Bummer and Jackson Kowar. Interestingly, however, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets that the Braves will have Lopez prepare as a starting pitcher this winter.

While the club isn’t necessarily penciling Lopez into the 2024 rotation, the Braves believe he can have success in either role and ramping him down from starting to relieving is of course easier than the inverse. Lopez’s specific role may not be determined until the spring, but it’s certainly notable that there’s at least a chance he’ll get another look as a starter with his new club.

Lopez, 30 in January, has plenty of experience in both roles but hasn’t had much success as a starting pitcher. Once one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, he went from the Nationals to the White Sox alongside Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning in the 2016 trade sending Adam Eaton back to Washington. While he gave the White Sox 32 starts and 188 innings of 3.91 ERA ball in 2018, he did so with shaky peripherals. On the whole, Lopez carries a lifetime 3.01 ERA out of the bullpen but a much rockier 4.73 mark as a starter.

Lopez’s career took off, in earnest, with a full-time move to the bullpen — a role in which he’s excelled for the past two seasons, albeit in different ways. The flamethrowing righty had a rough start in ’22 but was one of the sport’s most dominant bullpen arms over that season’s final four months, logging a 1.54 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate and 3.1% walk rate from early June through season’s end. Overall, his 2022 campaign ended with a sterling 2.76 ERA, a slightly above-average strikeout rate (24.8%) and an elite walk rate (4.3%).

In 2023, Lopez’s run prevention was again strong (3.27 ERA), but he took a different route to get there. Brandishing a fastball that was now averaging a blistering 98.4 mph — a 1.3 mph increase over the prior season’s already-strong 97.1 mph — Lopez punched out a huge 29.9% of his opponents. However, his 12.2% walk rate was nearly triple that of the prior season. He all but abandoned his curveball, throwing it at just a 1.2% clip (after 7.2% in 2022).

The 2023 version of Lopez was effectively a two-pitch pitcher: blazing fastball and hard slider (with a seldom-used changeup and curveball). He has, however, had seasons where he’s thrown both his change and his hook at a 20% clip or higher, so there’s certainly a diverse enough collection of pitches in his arsenal to succeed as a starter — if the Braves can coax better and more consistent results from his secondary offerings. If Lopez were to work as a starter, it’s only natural to think his fastball velocity would drop a tick, but he’s still have well above-average heat regardless.

To an extent, it’s possible that Lopez’s ultimate usage in 2024 depends on the remainder of Atlanta’s offseason. As things stand, the Braves’ rotation includes Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder. There’ll be competition for that fifth spot, likely including Lopez but also featuring top prospect AJ Smith-Shawver, veteran Ian Anderson (who’ll be returning from Tommy John surgery), southpaw Dylan Dodd and righty Huascar Ynoa. The Braves have been linked to some free agents of note thus far, and if they succeed in signing Sonny Gray or acquiring another veteran starter, that’d likely push Lopez more firmly into the bullpen.

If Lopez ends up in his more familiar bullpen role, he’ll join a comically deep group. In addition to the aforementioned Jimenez, Johnson and Bummer, the Braves will deploy Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek in what’s shaping up to be one of the most experienced and most talented collection of relief arms in the Majors.

Lopez’s $4MM salary for the 2024 season pushes the Braves’ payroll up to around $207MM, per Roster Resource’s projections. However, while its backloaded nature spares Atlanta some bottom-line payroll in the upcoming season, the contract still comes with a much heftier $10MM luxury-tax hit, as all luxury calculations are based on a deal’s average annual value.

The $10MM AAV on Lopez’s contract pushes the Braves squarely into luxury-tax territory, as they’re now at about $241.6MM of luxury considerations — comfortably north of this year’s $237MM luxury barrier. They also paid the luxury tax last season, meaning their penalty levels will rise. Rather than a 20% dollar-for-dollar tax, they’ll now pay a 30% tax (with increasing penalties if they surpass the threshold by more than $20MM total). They’re also in line for even harsher penalties come 2025, as third-time payors face even steeper rates of taxation.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Officially Posted By Orix Buffaloes

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November 20: As expected, Yamamoto has been officially posted, as relayed by Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The posting window begins a 7 am Central on November 21 and goes until 4 pm Central on January 4.

November 17: Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the offseason’s most talked-about free agents, and he’ll finally be fully available to Major League teams in a few days’ time.  ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via X) that Yamamoto is “expected to be posted” this coming Monday, so his negotiation window to speak with MLB teams will officially begin on November 21.

It is widely expected that Yamamoto will shatter the record for the largest contract ever given to a player coming from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors for the first time, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting a nine-year, $225MM deal for the right-hander.  Because Yamamoto is only 25 years old, it is quite possible that he might seek an opt-out clause or two in his eventual contract, allowing him the chance to re-enter the market in a few years’ time in search of an even larger deal after he has established himself as a frontline Major League pitcher.

Yamamoto has been utterly dominant over his seven seasons with the Buffaloes, posting a 1.82 ERA over 897 innings.  With a 26.43% strikeout rate and small walk (5.9%) and home run (1.03%) rates, Yamamoto’s numbers are pretty eye-popping across the board, leaving scouts and evaluators with little doubt that he’ll be at least a solid big league pitcher with a clear ceiling as a potential ace.  Since Yamamoto is so young, there should be plenty of prime years left, and there is much less wear-and-tear on his arm than most other premium free agent pitchers in history, considering how it is very rare for players to be available to the open market at age 25.

Technically, Yamamoto is not a completely free agent yet, as per the rules of the MLB/NPB posting system.  Come Tuesday, Yamamoto will have 45 days to negotiate with Major League teams, giving him until January 4 to sign a contract to come to North America.  Yamamoto would return to the Buffaloes for the 2024 NPB season if no deal is reached within that 45-day window, yet with so much interest in his services, it certainly feels like he has pitched his last game in a Buffaloes uniform for the foreseeable future.

The Buffaloes are entitled to a posting fee once Yamamoto signs, so a Major League team will have to pay up some extra money beyond whatever they give to Yamamoto himself.  The Buffaloes will receive 20% of the contract’s first $25MM in guaranteed money, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and then 15% on anything beyond the $50MM mark.  Should Yamamoto land that projected $225MM deal, then, that would mean a $35.625MM posting fee to the Buffaloes — not a bad payday, yet a bittersweet one considering that the Osaka-based team is losing such a proven star.

The Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers have all been linked to Yamamoto to varying degrees, whether it has been club officials or scouts on hand in Japan to see the righty pitch in person, or offseason reports indicating that Yamamoto is high on a team’s list of priorities.  It seems entirely possible that Yamamoto’s list of suitors could be even longer, given the somewhat unique opportunity to sign an elite pitcher at such a young age.

Negotiations will begin in earnest Tuesday, with quite a bit of impact on the overall pitching market.  Because Yamamoto’s free agency would come with a hard deadline, it is possible some of the other top arms on the market might wait until after he signs, to better gauge the field of remaining suitors.  With so many teams in need of pitching, missing out on Yamamoto could make teams more eager (and thus more willing to spend big) to acquire one of the other pitchers left.  Some reports have suggested that Shota Imanaga, his representatives, and NPB’s Yokohama DeNA Baystars might wait until after Yamamoto is off the market to go ahead and start Imanaga’s own posting window.

Zack Britton Announces Retirement

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Two-time All-Star Zack Britton is retiring after a 12-year career in the Majors. The left-hander himself announced the news in a terrific interview with The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli that fans of Britton, the Orioles and the Yankees will surely want to read in full. Within, Britton discusses the difficult decision to walk away, the toll that the game can take on a young family (and his subsequent appreciation for the support of his wife), some of the low points of his career, the best advice he ever received from Buck Showalter and much, much more.

A third-round pick of the Orioles back in 2006, the now-35-year-old Britton didn’t have a straightforward path to stardom. Though he ranked among the game’s 100 best prospects on most lists heading into the 2010 and 2011 seasons, Britton’s rookie campaign in ’11 featured 154 1/3 innings of 4.61 ERA ball. He struggled as a starter in each of the next two seasons, pitching to a nondescript 4.77 ERA from 2011-13.

After logging 254 2/3 innings of shaky work with sub-par strikeout and walk rates out of the rotation, Britton was moved to the Orioles’ bullpen. It proved to be a career-defining decision. Britton excelled immediately, and before long he’d cemented himself not as just one of the very best relievers in the big leagues, but as one of the most dominant lefties in recent MLB history.

Britton’s peak in Baltimore was the stuff of legend. His 2014-16 run, in particular, stands as one of the best three-year stretches you’ll ever find from a reliever. In that span, the southpaw logged 209 innings with a minuscule 1.38 earned run average, fanning 27.1% of his opponents against a 6.9% walk rate.

In addition to those strong strikeout and walk rates, Britton was perhaps the greatest ground-ball pitcher in our lifetimes (if not longer). Since batted-ball data began being tracked in 2002, Britton owns five of the top 14 single-season grounder rates of any qualified pitcher in baseball — including Nos. 1 and 2. Britton’s 80% ground-ball rate in 2016 and his 79.1% ground-ball rate a year prior are the top two marks of any qualified pitcher since the advent of batted-ball tracking. Opponents were simply unable to elevate the southpaw’s 96-98mph bowling ball of a sinker, and it showed. After moving to the ’pen in 2014, Britton allowed just 0.39 home runs per nine innings pitched for the remainder of his career.

Britton made the All-Star team in both 2015 and 2016, leading the league in games finished in both of those seasons and topping the American League with 47 saves in ’16. He picked up another pair of saves and a hold with the O’s during their 2014 run to the ALCS. Fans will no doubt remember the now-infamous Showalter decision to pitch Ubaldo Jimenez over Britton in the 2016 Wild Card game, but Britton effused praise for his former skipper, crediting Showalter for helping make his career what it was and noting that such an esteemed managerial career shouldn’t be defined by that decision.

As the Orioles’ run as one of the American League’s top teams tailed off, Britton found himself changing uniforms in a rare intra-division swap of significance. Baltimore shipped him to the Yankees in return for Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll and Josh Rogers at the 2018 deadline — one of former GM Dan Duquette’s final moves atop the baseball operations hierarchy. Though Britton was a rental at the time, his foray into free agency led him right back to the Bronx; he signed a complex three-year, $39MM contract that contained a club option for a fourth season but required the Yankees to make the decision on that option after just two years — lest Britton be afforded the opportunity to opt out of the deal. The Yankees wound up exercising the fourth year, though injuries derailed much of Britton’s final few seasons.

While Britton’s time with the Yankees wasn’t necessarily as dominant as his time in Baltimore, he was nonetheless an excellent bullpen weapon for them when healthy. The lefty appeared in 136 games for the Yankees during regular-season play, piling up 53 holds and a dozen saves while recording a 2.75 ERA.  His strikeout and walk rates weren’t close to their peak levels, but Britton’s power sinker continued to produce ground-balls at historic rates throughout his time in pinstripes. The lefty notched sub-2.00 ERAs in both 2019 and 2020 before struggling to a near-6.00 ERA in an injury shortened 2021 campaign that culminated in Tommy John surgery. He returned to face nine hitters in 2022 — the final nine opponents of his excellent career.

All told, Britton will walk away from the game with a career 3.13 ERA, 154 saves, 61 holds and 35 wins. He pitched 641 innings during that time, adding another 23 postseason frames with a 3.13 ERA, two saves and seven holds. It could be years, if not decades before we see another reliever season quite like Britton’s career-best 2016 campaign: he logged a 0.54 ERA that year, saved 47 games, struck out 29.1% of his opponents (against a 7.1% walk rate), induced grounders at that best-ever 80% clip, made the All-Star team and finished fourth in American League Cy Young voting. He earned more than $87MM over the course of his dozen seasons in the big leagues.

While Britton indicated to Ghiroli that he isn’t ruling out a return to baseball in some capacity in his post-playing days, his immediate plans are to spend time with his wife and four children. Best wishes to Britton and his family in whatever the future holds.

Phillies Re-Sign Aaron Nola

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One of the offseason’s top free agents is staying put, as the Phillies announced that Aaron Nola has been re-signed to a seven-year deal.  Nola will earn $172MM over the course of the contract, which contains no opt-out clauses or club options.  Nola is represented by Paragon Sports.

Nola, 30, was selected seventh overall by the Phillies in the 2014 draft. The right-hander was a quick riser to the big leagues, making his MLB debut shortly after the All-Star break in 2015 at the age of 22. His rookie season saw him post a respectable 3.59 ERA (107 ERA+) and 4.04 FIP across 13 starts in the majors. It was a preview of the reliable, back-of-the-rotation production Nola would provide the Phillies with throughout his early twenties: he posted a 3.94 ERA (106 ERA+) across the first three seasons of his big league career, though a 3.38 FIP in that time suggested there was more potential yet to come for the young righty.

That potential was unleashed during the 2018 season. Nola posted a sterling 2.37 ERA while racking up 224 strikeouts across 212 1/3 innings of work. The performance not only earned Nola his first career All-Star appearance and a third-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting that year, but the Phillies also inked him to a new contract. The two sides agreed to a four-year extension with a club option for the 2023 season shortly before Opening Day 2019.

While Nola never quite replicated that incredible 2018 campaign over the life of his extension, he’s remained one of the most durable starters in the league over the past half-decade. Since the start of the 2018 season, only Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings than Nola’s 1065 1/3 figure. While Nola’s ERA of 3.65 is dragged down by difficult 2021 and 2023 seasons that saw him post results closer to that of a league-average starter than an ace, his 3.38 FIP over the past six seasons is a top-ten figure among arms with at least 700 innings of work across that timeframe. That leaves him with a whopping 25.5 fWAR accumulated over the past six seasons, an excellent figure topped only by Cole, Nola’s co-ace in the Phillies rotation Zack Wheeler, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom.

Impressive as those numbers are, Nola’s new deal with the Phillies is a hefty one for a pitcher coming off a 4.46 ERA (96 ERA+) platform season. Though Nola’s struggles in 2023 could fairly be attributed, at least in part, to a deflated 66.4% strand rate and an elevated 15.6% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs, he’ll continue to call the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park home while pitching in front of a Phillies defense that ranked below average by measure of Outs Above Average last season and bottom-five per Defensive Runs Saved. While a full-time shift to DH for Kyle Schwarber and additional reps for Bryce Harper at his new position of first base should help the Phillies out in the field next season, the defensive holes created by Nick Castellanos in right field and Trea Turner at shortstop seem unlikely to be plugged any time soon.

Previous reporting indicated the Phillies were hesitant to give Nola a seven-year contract, but Philadelphia continued a trend that became more common — stretching deals for top free agents in terms of years to lower the contract’s AAV. It’s a tactic used with several positional free agents last offseason, including Turner’s own 11-year pact with the Phillies. While the deal between Nola and the Phillies will keep the right-hander on the payroll through the 2030 season, the club will pay Nola just $24.57MM yearly for luxury tax purposes.

That AAV comes in far below not only that of previous top-tier free agent starters like David Price ($31MM AAV), but also more recent arms like Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon ($27MM AAV). Nola’s annual figure is much more closely in line with that of previous free agent arms like Wheeler, Kevin Gausman and Patrick Corbin, none of whom entered free agency with a track record of success comparable to Nola’s. The lowered AAV could help the Phillies if they look to avoid surpassing higher levels of the luxury tax. In 2024, Roster Resource projects the club for a payroll just over $252MM for luxury tax purposes, putting them around $5MM below the second luxury tax threshold of $257MM. Of course, staying under that figure would require the Phillies to either trim payroll elsewhere on the roster or make virtually no additional moves this offseason, though Nola’s lower AAV could still come into play for luxury tax purposes in future seasons.

Nola clocked in at number five on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list this offseason, where we projected the righty for a six-year, $150MM contract. While that projection ended up one year and $22MM light, it seems that Nola could have surpassed the deal he took with the Phillies had he decided to sign elsewhere as the New York Post’s Heyman reports that Nola took a lesser deal to remain in Philadelphia. It’s unclear which team or teams topped Philly’s offer, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan notes that the Braves were considered a “real threat” to land Nola while Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Tom Ackerman of KMOX this morning that he had been engaged with Nola’s agents during his free agency but that Nola had a “really strong desire” to return to the Phillies.

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made fairly clear that the Phillies only plan on adding one arm to their rotation this offseason, and with Nola back on board it seems the club’s rotation is set headed into 2024. While it’s certainly feasible that the heavy lifting for the Phillies could already be done for the offseason, there are still holes on the roster the club could look to address. The club could look to add a bat to their left field mix rather than rely on Johan Rojas as an everyday player after a solid 59-game stint in the majors this year, while the club’s late-inning mix could use a right-handed arm to pair with Jose Alvarado after veteran closer Craig Kimbrel departed for free agency.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was the first to report that the agreement was in place, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the $172MM figure. Nightengale and Jon Heyman of the New York Post respectively added the details about the no-trade clause and the lack of club options or opt-outs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Brewers Non-Tender Brandon Woodruff

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The Brewers are non-tendering starter Brandon Woodruff, as first reported by Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link). Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery in October and is expected to miss the majority of the 2024 season.

The injury put Milwaukee in a bind, as Woodruff was also entering his final season of club control. Given his excellent track record and prior salaries, he’d been projected for a hearty $11.6MM salary in arbitration, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. There was no real way for Milwaukee to lower this past season’s $10.8MM salary by any meaningful amount; arbitration salaries can be cut by a maximum of 40%, and the Brewers surely would’ve had to go to an arbitration hearing if they sought such a reduction. Even if they’d won that, Woodruff would’ve been set to earn just shy of $6.5MM in a season where he isn’t expected to pitch much — if at all.

The Brewers discussed multi-year arrangements with Woodruff and trades with other clubs, but neither set of negotiations manifested in a deal. With tonight’s non-tender deadline looming, the Brewers bit the bullet and made what GM Matt Arnold described in a statement as one of the most difficult decisions of his career. Said Arnold:

“Today we had to make a very difficult decision relating to one of the best pitchers and human beings in franchise history. Throughout his 10 seasons in the organization, Brandon Woodruff has represented the Brewers with class, kindness, heart and toughness. He is recognized as a tremendous teammate, both on the field and in the community, where he and his wife, Jonie, have positively impacted so many lives around them. We remain very open to his return to Milwaukee, and regardless of what uniform he wears next, Woody will always be a member of the Brewers family.”

That the Brewers remain open to some kind of reunion is a key takeaway from Arnold’s comments, though obviously Woodruff will now be able to freely negotiate with all 29 other teams. And while the possibility of a year-long absence from the mound looms large, the 30-year-old righty’s track record will surely draw substantial interest — likely on two-year contracts that allow him to rehab with a team for the first season before hopefully enjoying a full and healthy season in year two.

Since establishing himself on the Brewers’ roster in 2018, Woodruff and teammate Corbin Burnes have formed a dominant one-two punch atop the Milwaukee rotation. The 6’4″, 240-pound righty has pitched to a combined 2.98 ERA over 637 1/3 innings in that time, striking out 29.7% of his opponents against a 6.4% walk rate. He’s posted a slightly below-average ground-ball rate (42.4%) and kept the ball in the yard rather well, particularly considering his homer-friendly home environs (0.99 HR/9). Woodruff has generated swinging strikes at a big 12.7% clip and induced chases on pitches off the plate at a hearty 33.2% rate. Simply put, he’s been one of the best and most underrated starters in the National League — at least on a per-inning basis.

If there’s a knock on Woodruff, it’s been his durability (or lack thereof). He’s never topped 179 1/3 innings in a season, has only made 30 starts on one occasion and has averaged just 22 starts per year over his past four 162-game seasons. (Notably, he did start a league-leading 13 games during the Covid-shortened 2020 campaign.)

That said, this is the first year of his big league career in which Woodruff has had a major arm injury. His most prominent other absences were due to oblique and ankle injuries. That didn’t make up for the lost time necessarily, but it paints a more favorable long-term outlook than would be the case had a series of shoulder and elbow troubles kept him off the field in recent years and culminated in this recent procedure.

Now that he’s a free agent, Woodruff becomes one of the most intriguing arms on the market — not necessarily for the 2024 season but from a longer-term perspective. Any team would surely be thrilled to stash Woodruff on the injured list in hopes of a late-2024 return and a close-to-full workload in 2025. His presence on the market gives clubs the rare opportunity to sign a top-of-the-rotation arm at a relatively bargain rate, though any deal for Woodruff will surely afford him the opportunity to return to free agency sooner than later — likely by the 2025-26 offseason.

Mariners, Red Sox Swap Luis Urias, Isaiah Campbell

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The Mariners announced the acquisition of infielder Luis Urias from the Red Sox. Reliever Isaiah Campbell is headed to Boston in a one-for-one swap.

Urias, 26, was a consensus top-30 prospect in baseball entering the 2019 season. However, the infielder struggled in limited playing time with the Padres and was shipped to Milwaukee in the deal that brought Trent Grisham to San Diego. While Urias struggled through the shortened 2020 season with the Brewers, slashing just .239/.308/.294 while appearing in 41 of the club’s 60 games. Fortunately for Milwaukee, however, Urias broke out during his age-24 season and proceeded to be an above average regular for the Brewers over the next two seasons.

From 2021-22, Urias posted a .244/.340/.426 slash line across 1042 trips to the plate while playing strong defense at shortstop, second base, and third base to anchor the club’s infield alongside Willy Adames. The Brewers entered 2023 figuring to once again lean on Urias as a steady presence on the dirt but the 26-year-old was bit by the injury bug before his season could properly begin, landing on the injured list with a hamstring strain just after Opening Day. Urias returned in early June but struggled badly at the plate, slashing a brutal .145/.299/.236 across 20 games with the club this season. That downturn in performance led the Brewers to swap Urias to the Red Sox at the deadline this year.

Urias was used as a depth option at second base by Boston, and hit acceptably in the role with a .225/.361/.337 slash line in 109 trips to the plate with the club down the stretch. While that performance was good for a roughly league average 98 wRC+, Urias was nonetheless viewed as a likely non-tendered candidate given his $4.7MM projected salary by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz. Fortunately for both Urias and the Red Sox, however, the Mariners were willing to take a shot on Urias returning to form in 2024.

Urias makes plenty of sense for a Mariners club that could use an upgrade to its second base mix, which currently features Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore. Urias figures to provide the club with a solid right-handed complement to Rojas and fellow lefty JP Crawford up the middle who can play capable defense all around the infield. If he’s able to regain his 2021-22 form, Urias could be in line for the lion’s share of starts at the keystone given Rojas’s tepid .245/.303/.338 slash line in 350 plate appearances between Arizona and Seattle this year.

In return for Urias’s services, the Red Sox acquired right-hander Isaiah Campbell. Campbell was a second-round pick by the Mariners in the 2019 draft and made his major league debut out of the bullpen for Seattle earlier this year. Across 28 2/3 innings of work with the Mariners, Campbell impressed with a 2.83 ERA and 3.32 FIP to go along with a solid 27.5% strikeout rate. Campbell’s success is all the more impressive for a prospect who skipped the Triple-A level entirely after 24 strong innings of work at the Double-A level this year. The 25-year-old figures to be an interesting bullpen piece for the Red Sox in 2024, particularly given the righty has options remaining that will allow the club to shuttle him between Triple-A and the majors if they so choose.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported the Mariners were acquiring Urias. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported the Red Sox were acquiring Campbell.

Braves, Royals Swap Kyle Wright For Jackson Kowar

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The Braves have traded right-hander Kyle Wright to the Royals in exchange for fellow righty Jackson Kowar. Wright underwent shoulder surgery following the season and is expected to miss the entire 2024 campaign, though Kansas City will control him for two years after that.

Wright, 28, was the No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 draft, and while he took several years to get there, he eventually broke out with a dominant showing in 2022. After posting a 6.56 ERA through 70 innings across parts of four seasons from 2018-21, Wright turned in a career-best performance in just about every capacity in 2022. Over the life of 180 1/3 frames, he logged a 3.19 earned run average with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate, 55.6% grounder rate and 0.95 HR/9.

That ostensibly set the stage for Wright to pitch near the top of the Atlanta rotation for years to come, but as is so often the case with pitchers, injuries intervened and changed his career trajectory. Wright reported shoulder soreness during spring training and opened the year on the 15-day IL. He returned in mid-April but was placed back on the injured list just three weeks later — this time eventually being moved to the 60-day IL. Wright returned for four September appearances and was hit hard while showing diminished velocity. He underwent surgery after the conclusion of the regular season and won’t be back on a big league mound until the 2025 campaign.

Overall, Wright’s 2023 season included just 31 innings of 6.97 ERA ball with strikeout, walk and home run rates that all trended in the wrong direction. He’s eligible for arbitration this winter and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.4MM in his first trip through the process. He’ll all but certainly make an identical salary in 2025 after sitting out the ’24 campaign and accruing a full year of service on the 60-day injured list. Kansas City is effectively acquiring two healthy years of Wright. That first season will more or less cost them $2.8MM (next year’s ~$1.4MM salary and a matching amount the following year). Wright will be on an innings limit of some kind in ’25 and ideally be built up to a full workload in 2026.

In return for this long-term upside play on Wright, the Royals will give the Braves six years of club control over Kowar — a former Florida Gators star, first-round pick and top prospect who’s yet to pan out in K.C. Kowar has one minor league option year remaining after being granted a fourth option due to injuries (hat tip to Bowman), but the 27-year-old has yielded 75 earned runs in 74 Major League innings across parts of three seasons. Suffice it to say, he’s a project and an upside play in his own right.

While Kowar clearly hasn’t had any big league success to date, he’s seen a pronounced uptick in velocity since moving to a bullpen role on a full-time basis. After averaging 95.7 mph on his heater as a starter in 2021, he averaged 97 mph in 2023. That’s impressive life, to be sure, but the pitch also has well below-average spin — and Kowar’s broader 10.7% swinging-strike rate across his entire arsenal is still slightly below league average. Kowar struck out 21.2% if his opponents in 2023 but also walked 14.6% of them — bringing his career walk rate to 13.7%.

The Braves clearly see something they like, however. Kowar ranked among Baseball America’s top-100 prospects in both the 2019-20 and 2020-21 offseasons and generally posted solid or better numbers throughout the minors up until the 2022 season. He’s been hit hard in Triple-A over the past two years, just as he has in the big leagues, but if the Braves can get him back to his pre-’22 form, they’ll have secured six years of club control over a hard-throwing bullpen arm.

Anne Rogers of MLB.com first reported the Royals were acquiring Wright for Kowar. Rogers’ colleague Mark Bowman first indicated that some type of deal involving Wright could be in the works.

Guardians, Padres Swap Scott Barlow, Enyel De Los Santos

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The Guardians announced they’ve acquired reliever Scott Barlow from the Padres. Fellow reliever Enyel De Los Santos is back to San Diego in a one-for-one swap. Cleveland also announced they’ve signed outfielder Ramón Laureano to a one-year contract to avoid arbitration. Zack Meisel of the Athletic reports (on X) that Laureano will make $5.15MM next season.

Barlow has spent the majority of his career in the AL Central. The right-hander reached the big leagues with the Royals in 2018. He logged five and a half seasons in Kansas City, where he was one of the game’s more quietly effective bullpen arms. Barlow turned in a sub-3.00 ERA over 74 1/3 innings in consecutive seasons from 2021-22. That excellent run prevention took a step back this year, as he carried a 5.35 mark through 38 2/3 frames at the time of the trade deadline.

The Royals swapped Barlow to San Diego last summer. While he’d been working as Kansas City’s closer, he stepped into a setup role in deference to Josh Hader at Petco Park. Barlow made 25 appearances for the Friars down the stretch, pitching to a 3.07 ERA. While Barlow was effective, he became a trade candidate yet again as rumors of payroll constraints in San Diego arose.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Barlow for a $7.1MM salary in what’ll be his final year of arbitration control. While that’s decent value for an effective reliever, the Padres are reportedly aiming to cut spending (potentially by as much as $50MM). Moving a non-closing reliever is one of the less impactful ways for San Diego to clear spending room, although it’s another hit to a bullpen that also stands to lose Hader to free agency.

It’s rare for the low-payroll Guardians to find themselves on this side of a trade of that nature. Cleveland tends to deal away players as they’re nearing free agency. The Guards jumped on the opportunity to add a high-quality reliever to join Trevor Stephan and Sam Hentges as a leverage bridge to star closer Emmanuel Clase.

To offset the loss of Barlow, San Diego brings back a more affordable short-term bullpen piece. De Los Santos had a nice 2023 campaign, pitching 70 times and working to a 3.29 ERA through 65 2/3 innings. The righty, 28 next month, had an average 23.7% strikeout rate and walked 9.5% of opposing hitters.

It was his second straight year with an ERA in the low 3.00s. Since signing a minor league deal over the 2021-22 offseason, he has turned in a 3.18 ERA over 119 frames. De Los Santos worked in mostly low-leverage situations but had pitched his way into the middle innings during his second season in Terry Francona’s bullpen.

De los Santos, who spent some time in the Padres system early in his minor league career, has between three and four years of MLB service. He will be eligible for arbitration for the next three years. Swartz forecasts him for an affordable $1.2MM this winter, meaning the deal should save San Diego roughly $6MM in the short term.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins Acquire Vidal Brujan, Calvin Faucher From Rays

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The Marlins announced the acquisition of utility player Vidal Bruján and right-hander Calvin Faucher from the Rays. Miami is sending minor league infielder Erick Lara, right-hander Andrew Lindsey and a player to be named later to Tampa Bay. The Fish already had three openings on the 40-man roster, so no further moves were necessary.

Bruján is the biggest name in the deal. While the switch-hitting utilityman has yet to find much major league success, he was once a top prospect. The Dominican Republic native was a top 10 prospect in a strong Rays system at Baseball America each year from 2019-22. He ranked in the back half of BA’s top 100 overall minor league talents throughout that run.

Praised for his speed, bat-to-ball skills and defensive flexibility, Bruján fit the general profile that Tampa Bay prioritizes. Despite excellent minor league production, he never got much consistent run at the MLB level with the Rays. Bruján struggled when he did see relatively brief stints at the highest level in the last three seasons.

In 272 MLB plate appearances, the 25-year-old is a .157/.218/.221 hitter with three home runs. He has been far better at Triple-A Durham, hitting .273/.357/.450 over parts of three seasons. That includes a .272/.362/.477 slash with 10 home runs and 19 stolen bases (albeit with 14 times caught stealing) over 59 games for the Bulls this year.

Bruján has exhausted his minor league option years, so he’ll have to stick on the MLB roster next season. A Tampa Bay team deep in infield talent may not have been able to afford that opportunity, so they’ll clear a 40-man roster spot early in the offseason. Miami has a bit less bench depth and is without a clear answer at shortstop, where Jon Berti projects as the starter. While Bruján is unlikely to get an everyday job, he can play either middle infield position, any outfield spot, and has experience at third base.

Faucher, 28, had been designated for assignment on Tuesday. He’s now traded for the second time in his career. The former Twins draftee went to the Rays at the 2021 deadline in the Nelson Cruz/Joe Ryan swap. He debuted with Tampa Bay in 2022 and has pitched in 39 big league contests (four starts) over the past two seasons.

The results haven’t been great. Faucher owns a 6.32 ERA in 47 MLB innings. His 20.8% strikeout rate and 10% walk percentage are each a little worse than average. The UC Irvine product throws in the mid-90s and has a cutter, sweeper and curveball in his offspeed repertoire. He owns an excellent 2.75 ERA in 72 Triple-A innings over three years, striking out 29.4% of batters faced at that level.

Faucher still has one option year remaining, so the Marlins can move him between Miami and Triple-A Jacksonville for another season. It’s the second straight year in which the Fish acquired a reliever and a former top infield prospect from Tampa Bay. Last November, the sides lined up on the Xavier Edwards/JT Chargois deal. That was orchestrated by previous Miami general manager Kim Ng. Miami’s first-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix was working in the Rays’ front office for that trade. One of his first transactions leading the Marlins is to bring in a pair of players with whom he’s familiar from their in-state rivals.

In return, Tampa Bay picks up a pair of prospects (and likely a third) who are nowhere near occupying 40-man roster spots — common practice as they churn the roster for future talent. Lara is a 17-year-old shortstop who recently signed out of the Dominican Republic. Baseball America’s Ben Badler wrote in May that he could stick at shortstop depending on his 6’2″ frame fills out. He’s a left-handed hitter.

Lindsey was a fifth-round pick this past summer out of Tennessee. The 6’3″ hurler pitched to a 2.90 ERA in 71 1/3 innings during his junior season for the Volunteers. He struck out nearly a quarter of opponents against a modest 6.4% walk rate. He turned 24 this week. BA wrote in his draft report that he sits in the mid-90s with a sinker and has a high-80s slider as his top secondary pitch.

Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase first reported the Marlins were acquiring Bruján and Faucher.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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