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Latest On Blue Jays, Pete Alonso

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5:30pm: Tim Healey of Newsday provides a similar report to Martino, saying that the two sides are deep in talks. However, Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet report that there’s no gaining momentum for the Jays to sign Alonso or Scherzer.

3:05pm: The Blue Jays have been known for a while to have interest in free agent first baseman Pete Alonso. Andy Martino of SNY reports today that talks between the two sides are “advancing,” though he cautions that nothing is done yet and it can’t be certain that a deal will be completed.

Though nothing is done yet, it would be quite an interesting offseason pivot for the Jays if they could get the deal over the line. For the first few months of the winter, the club was defined by coming up just short in their pursuits of free agents like Juan Soto, Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and Roki Sasaki. When combined with last winter’s near miss on Shohei Ohtani and a disappointing 2024 season, frustration was high among the fanbase.

The volume of the murmuring decreased somewhat in recent days as the Jays signed outfield Anthony Santander to provide the lineup with a power boost. But even after that deal, it didn’t seem as though the Jays were done. They reportedly still have payroll space and have been recently connected to players like Alonso, Jurickson Profar and Max Scherzer.

If Alonso is ultimately brought north of the border alongside Santander, the two would make for fairly similar additions. Both players have power as their clear best trait, with their other contributions a bit more muted.

Alonso has clubs 226 home runs over the past six seasons, which puts him second only to Aaron Judge for that span. But despite that huge power, he has lingered unsigned in free agency as spring training is just over the horizon.

That is perhaps due to the other parts of his profile. His 9.9% career walk rate is a bit above average but not by much. He doesn’t have huge speed on the basepaths. The reviews on his defense have been mixed, with Alonso having earned +2 Defensive Runs Saved in his career but getting a grade of -24 from Outs Above Average. His offense has also been relatively lower of late. He slashed .261/.349/.535 through 2022 for a wRC+ of 137, but then hit .229/.324/.480 for a 121 wRC+ over the past two years.

That’s still really strong production but it’s possible that it contributed to a gap between what Alonso and his reps were expecting from free agency and what clubs were willing to offer. The power-only right-handed slugger is a profile that hasn’t been paid well in a while and Alonso’s recent dip may not have helped him.

Many expected him and the Mets to reunite but the club didn’t seem too keen on that. Even as Alonso and his reps have pivoted to considering short-term deals recently, the Mets apparently capped their offer in the range of $68-70MM over three years. That amounts to something close to $23MM annually, a lower average annual value than Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery were able to get even though they remained unsigned into February/March of last year.

It’s unclear what kind of terms Alonso and Jays are discussing, but he would be a sensible fit for them, despite his flaws. The Jays had some strengths last year but power was a clear weakness. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the only guy on the club to get to the 20-homer plateau. The team-wide tally of 156 long balls was 26th out of the 30 clubs in the league, ahead of only the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox.

Their walk rate, however, trailed only six teams. Their defense was considered quite strong, with DRS having them tops in the majors and OAA considering them the fourth-best. Therefore, adding a player who mostly provides power was a sensible target coming into the offseason.

They already made one such addition with Santander. Like Alonso, his power is a greater strength than his defense, speed or on-base ability. But the Jays are seemingly willing to go after the weakest part of their 2024 club and attack it.

Fitting everyone into the lineup would be a bit of a challenge. The Jays already have a first baseman in Guerrero. With Alonso on the club, the two would presumably share first base and the designated hitter spot somewhat regularly. Guerrero has played a bit of third base in his career but only 14 games in the past five seasons. Most of those came last year as the club was playing out the string on a lost season.

Without Alonso on the club, corner outfielders Santander and George Springer make sense as the top candidates to receive lengthy stints in the DH spot. As mentioned, Santander is not a great fielder. Springer has been a good defender in his career but is now 35 years old and he’s naturally sliding a bit in that department. Adding Alonso would limit the ability of the Jays to use Springer or Santander in the DH spot, unless they are willing to put Guerrero at third more often than expected. As of now, Ernie Clement profiles as the club’s best option at the hot corner. Since he’s more of a glove-first guy capable of playing other positions, it’s possible he could be deployed in more of a utility role. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible the Jays could start some games with Guerrero and Alonso at the corners, with Clement subbing in at third late in the game if the club is ahead and wants to prioritize defense. At that point, either Guerrero or Alonso could head to the bench, with the other at first.

It’s an interesting gambit and time will tell if the two sides get anything done. The Jays apparently still have some money to spend and have some options available. Whether that’s Alonso, Profar, Scherzer, someone else or some combination, it appears they are still busy in trying to salvage the offseason after a few misses earlier on.

Signing Alonso would also require the club to forfeit a draft pick and $500K of international bonus pool space because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets. The Jays already gave up pool space to sign Santander but added $2MM in the ill-fated Myles Straw deal when they were courting Sasaki, so they probably aren’t especially worried about that part. Since they already surrendered their second-best pick in the upcoming draft to get Santander, signing Alonso would mean also forfeiting their third-highest pick. The Mets would receive a compensation pick for Alonso leaving, but as a club that paid the competitive balance tax last year, that pick wouldn’t come until after the fourth round.

Report: Astros Still Not Ruling Out Alex Bregman Reunion

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The Astros’ chances of retaining Alex Bregman seemingly went up in smoke when he declined their reported six-year, $156MM offer earlier this winter. Houston pivoted quickly, first trying to engineer a trade for Nolan Arenado, which the current Cardinals third baseman nixed by way of his no-trade clause. The ’Stros pivoted again, signing first baseman Christian Walker for three years and $60MM. In doing so, they pushed Isaac Paredes — acquired from the Cubs as part of the Kyle Tucker return — across the diamond to third base. Or, so it seemed.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Astros are still “keeping the door ajar” for Bregman. It’s a long-shot pairing in light of the new-look corner infield in Houston, but the team has at least considered a scenario where they’d move Paredes to second base and play Jose Altuve in left field, should Bregman ultimately return. It’s an out-of-the-box solution, but the Astros have been (unsuccessfully) hunting for outfielders in free agency and trade. Nightengale adds that the Astros “aren’t optimistic” about their chances, however, adding that Bregman presently has at least two serious offers in hand.

Beyond the roster considerations, there’s the financial aspect to consider. Owner Jim Crane has publicly stated that he has the “wherewithal” to match last year’s $244MM payroll and $262MM worth of luxury obligations, though the team’s actions this winter have suggested otherwise, to an extent. Houston traded its best player, Tucker, to the Cubs in exchange for Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski and top prospect/2024 first-rounder Cam Smith. They’ve also reportedly been shopping Ryan Pressly, who’s owed $14MM but has full no-trade protection.

That said, Crane suggested when making his comments about 2025 spending that the extent to which the club did or not spend would depend on the specific players available to them. Pushing to a $260MM CBT number again for a free agent who’d be new to the organization and doing so for a longtime cornerstone player whose entire career has been spent with the ’Stros are quite different. One trait Bregman has drawn consistent praise for both from the Astros and in reports citing anonymous coaches and executives around the league is his fiery leadership and clubhouse demeanor. The Astros are more familiar with that than any team, and logic dictates that they’d likely be most willing to pay a premium for it. Currently, RosterResource projects the Astros aout $3MM north of the $241MM luxury barrier. Signing Bregman would put them over with minimal chance of ducking back underneath.

A move to the outfield for Altuve would register as a major surprise, but it’s not exactly hard to see why Houston might ponder it. Altuve’s defensive grades have cratered in the decade since he won his lone career Gold Glove. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at -13 in both of the past two seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average had him at -8 this past season. Altuve made only five errors on the season, but that seems largely due to his inability to get to balls he might’ve had a play on several years ago; Statcast graded Altuve’s range in just the third percentile this past season. His arm strength was similarly panned, landing in the seventh percentile.

There are other alignments that could be considered. The Red Sox, among other teams, have been rumored to view Bregman as a second base option. (Skipper Alex Cora recently spoke on the record about his belief that Bregman could be a plus defender there.) Houston could also leave Bregman and Altuve at their customary spots and move Paredes to left field. However, he’s notably slower than Altuve and has below-average arm strength himself. Altuve still has nearly average speed, and Houston’s left field is smaller than most thanks to the short left field porch at the newly renamed Daikin Park. The Astros have reportedly been in the market for corner outfield upgrades but have not yet found a deal to their liking.

Bregman has reportedly drawn interest from the Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays and to a lesser extent the Cubs, although Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently indicated he feels next year’s third baseman is “likely” already in the organization. At least to this point, Bregman hasn’t been open to the sort of short-term pacts to which many top free agents acquiesce late in the winter. As of this writing, it’s not clear whether Bregman has received any long-term offers other than the original six-year proposal from Houston. The Tigers have been cast as perhaps the other top landing spot, but talks between the two sides reportedly reached a “standstill” this week.

Mets Sign A.J. Minter

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The Mets announced that they have signed free agent reliever A.J. Minter. It’s reportedly a two-year, $22MM contract. The Bledsoe Agency client can opt out after the first season. The Mets had an opening on the 40-man roster.

Minter, 31, has been a strong performer in recent years. However, there is at least some uncertainty due to his health. He went on the injured list twice in 2024 due to left hip inflammation and eventually underwent surgery in August.

It’s unclear exactly when Minter will be fully healthy again but the surgery doesn’t seem to have hurt his market. He’s been connected to the Blue Jays, Cubs, Rangers and Red Sox over the past couple of months and now has a strong pact with the Mets. Perhaps that indicates clubs aren’t too worried about his recovery from the hip procedure impacting him in 2025.

Just looking at Minter’s results, the robust interest makes plenty of sense. From 2020 to 2024, the lefty made 267 relief appearances, allowing 2.85 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 30.1% of batters faced while limiting walks to a 7.8% clip. He was a key relief arm for Atlanta, who let him earn 16 saves and 92 holds in that time. Even while pitching through the hip problems in 2024, he managed to throw 34 1/3 innings with a 2.62 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate.

Despite the hip surgery, it was fair to expect Minter to be one of the most popular relief arms in this winter’s market. MLBTR predicted him for a two-year, $16MM pact but almost all pitchers have been outearning their projections this winter, with Minter no exception. He gets a $22MM guarantee and also an opt-out, meaning he will have the ability to become a free agent again next winter if he demonstrates his health and has a strong season.

The Mets are a sensible landing spot for Minter, as their bullpen is in a state of flux. At the end of the 2024 season, they saw Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Ryne Stanek, Drew Smith and Phil Maton become free agents.

The club also came into the winter particularly shorthanded in terms of left-handed relief. Raley was one such member on the 2024 club, though he underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of May, well before he became a free agent. Jake Diekman was released during the season. Josh Walker was traded around the same time. Alex Young was non-tendered at the end of the year.

All of that left the Mets with Danny Young as their only southpaw reliever on the roster, so an addition made plenty of sense. They signed Génesis Cabrera to a minor league deal and have been connected to free agents like Tanner Scott and Tim Hill. Signing either Scott or Hill could still be an option but the lefty contingent of the Mets bullpen now looks much stronger with Minter in it. Per Mike Puma of The New York Post, the Mets are unlikely to continue pursuing Scott with Minter now on board.

For the Mets, perhaps this is yet another move away from their relationship with Pete Alonso. As recently as yesterday morning, it seemed possible that the Mets and Alonso would work something out. But reporting from yesterday afternoon indicated that the Mets didn’t want to have a prolonged staredown with Alonso. Since they had other players on their radar, they planned instead to move on and spread money around to various different players. In the past 24 hours, they have agreed to new deals with Jesse Winker and now Minter.

The deal with Minter pushed the club’s payroll and competitive balance tax number up to $297MM and $293MM respectively, in the eyes of RosterResource. Last year, those numbers were $336MM and $346MM. If they are willing to get to similar levels in 2025, they still have lots of space to work with. That could be enough room to bring back Alonso but the Mets might also look to make further bullpen upgrades.

They are already between the third and four tiers of the CBT, which are $281MM and $301MM this year. As a third-time payor, they will be facing a tax of 95% for any more money they add up to the fourth line and a 110% rate for spending beyond it. Since Steve Cohen became owner of the team, the tax has never really seemed to be any kind of obstacle for the Mets.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported that the Mets had an agreement with Minter. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported the two-year, $22MM guarantee. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the opt-out provision.

Twins, Padres Have Discussed Christian Vazquez Trade

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The Padres and Twins have had discussions about a potential trade that would send veteran catcher Christian Vázquez to San Diego, report Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin of The Athletic. There’s no indication that a deal is imminent. Indeed, Hayes suggests that conversations have “slowed” recently, though that doesn’t mean that the sides won’t continue talks in the coming days.

Vázquez is both a logical trade candidate for Minnesota and an obvious fit for San Diego. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said last week that the team’s trade talks had started to pick up steam. While Falvey didn’t identify specific players under discussion, Vázquez is arguably the most obvious candidate. He’s entering the final season of a three-year free agent deal. He has split time with Ryan Jeffers over his two years in the Twin Cities.

Over the past two seasons, Jeffers carries a .246/.328/.456 batting line in exactly 800 trips to the plate. Vázquez has hit .222/.265/.322 through 670 plate appearances. Manager Rocco Baldelli nevertheless stuck to the even divide in playing time last year. Each player made 81 starts. Jeffers caught 720 1/3 innings, while Vázquez logged 719 frames.

Jeffers clearly brings a much higher offensive ceiling. Vázquez is the superior defender. While Jeffers receives subpar grades for his receiving skills, Vázquez has long been a quality pitch framer. He was also a superior blocker. Last year, Vázquez was charged with just one passed ball and was behind the plate for 19 wild pitches. Jeffers committed three passed balls and allowed 28 wild pitches.

Despite Vázquez’s defensive advantage, the Twins may prefer to give Jeffers an extra 15-20 starts to keep his bat in the lineup. That’s particularly true when considering the financials. Vázquez’s deal pays him $10MM annually. That’s a lot for a part-time catcher. Minnesota’s front office has been hamstrung by the budget for a second straight offseason. The Pohlad family ownership group has been loath to raise payroll as they explore a sale of the franchise. Minnesota has not made a single major league free agent signing this winter. Their biggest moves have been depth trades for Mickey Gasper and former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya.

The Padres are in a remarkably similar spot. While ownership isn’t selling the franchise, there’s litigation amongst the Seidler family for control. San Diego has slashed payroll for two straight years themselves. They also have not signed any major league free agents or made any trades of consequence.

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has his work cut out for him in addressing multiple areas of need with a limited budget. Catcher is probably the biggest issue on the position player side. San Diego hoped that Luis Campusano would run with the job in 2024. Instead, he hit .227/.287/.361 while grading as one of the league’s worst defensive catchers.

Campusano ceded the starting job to Kyle Higashioka down the stretch. Higashioka landed with the Rangers on a two-year free agent deal, leaving Campusano as the default projected starter. Brett Sullivan is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. San Diego recently added Martín Maldonado on a minor league contract. He hit .119 in 48 games for the White Sox last season. Chicago released him in July.

The 34-year-old Vázquez would provide a significant defensive upgrade over Campusano. While he hasn’t produced at the plate in Minnesota, he was a league average hitter (.274/.315/.399) between the Red Sox and Astros back in 2022. There’s more hope for getting something offensively from Vázquez than there would be if they select Maldonado’s contract.

San Diego would not take on Vázquez’s entire salary. He’s comparable to Jacob Stallings ($2.5MM) and Austin Hedges ($4MM), each of whom signed cheap one-year deals as free agents this offseason. The Padres could push for Minnesota to eat at least half the money to facilitate a trade. Hayes and Lin write that the Twins are reluctant to pay down too much of the deal. Their primary motivation of trading Vázquez would be salary relief. They’d also perhaps need to earmark a couple million dollars for a veteran to back up Jeffers (e.g. Elias Díaz, Yasmani Grandal). The other catchers on their 40-man roster — Cartaya and Jair Camargo — have five combined games of MLB experience.

Minnesota is looking for a first baseman who can replace Carlos Santana. They’re seeking a right-handed hitting outfielder as well. Beyond Vázquez, Chris Paddack ($7.5MM) stands as their clearest trade candidate to create a bit of payroll room. To be clear, there’s no suggestion that the Padres have interest in reacquiring Paddack. Justin Turner, Anthony Rizzo and Ty France are among the unsigned first basemen. Mark Canha, Austin Hays and Randal Grichuk are a few righty-swinging outfielders still on the open market.

In addition to their catching pursuit, San Diego needs back-end rotation help and a replacement for Jurickson Profar in left field. They’re unlikely to achieve all of that without shedding salary in a trade of their own. Dylan Cease is their biggest trade chip. He’ll make $13.75MM in his final year of arbitration. Dealing him would be a huge hit to an already thin rotation, but they’d net MLB help in return while creating a decent chunk of short-term payroll space.

The Athletic reports that the Twins are among a number of teams that have shown interest in Cease. Vázquez obviously would not be a key piece in a trade of that magnitude, though he could be included as an ancillary part of a much larger package. As a comparison, Higashioka was probably viewed as the fifth-most valuable player in San Diego’s return from the Yankees for Juan Soto at the time of that trade.

Guardians Sign Paul Sewald

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The Guardians announced Wednesday that they’ve signed free agent reliever Paul Sewald to a one-year contract with a mutual option for the 2026 season. He’s represented by ISE Baseball. The righty is reportedly guaranteed $7MM on the deal, which will be paid out in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, a $5MM salary, and a $1MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option. Sewald can also earn an extra $100K for reaching each of 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 relief appearances in 2025, giving him the opportunity to earn a total of $7.5MM on the deal.

Righty Pedro Avila has been designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster, per the club announcement. Cleveland also signed right-hander Riley Pint to a minor league deal. The Excel client will be invited him to spring training.

Sewald, 35 in May, is coming off a bit of a frustrating year. He opened the 2024 season on the injured list due to a left oblique strain and missed a bit more than a month, getting reinstated by the Diamondbacks on May 7. Once back on the mound, the results weren’t up to his previous standard, which got him bumped from Arizona’s closing gig in August. He landed back on the IL in September due to neck discomfort and wrapped up the campaign there.

In the end, he tossed 39 2/3 innings on the year, allowing 4.31 earned runs per nine. His 26.1% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate were still good numbers but were worse than his previous form. From 2021 to 2023, between the Mariners and Diamondbacks, he threw 189 1/3 innings with a 2.95 ERA, 33.9% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.

The Guardians are seemingly making a bet on a bounceback, which there is some justification for. Most of his struggles last year were during a short period of time where he seemed to be a bit unlucky. In the month of July, he allowed 12 earned runs in 10 innings, just before losing the closer’s job. Since he only allowed 19 earned runs all year, that was the majority of them. During that month, he allowed a .469 batting average on balls in play and had a 56.2% strand rate, which are both on the unfortunate side. That’s why his 3.94 SIERA was miles better than his 10.80 ERA that month.

Sewald averaged 91.4 miles per hour on his fastball last year, which was down from being in the 92-93 mph range in the previous three seasons, but it’s possible that his two injuries played a role there. With a bit better health, perhaps the Guards can get more of the 2021-23 Sewald than the ’24 version.

Though betting on Sewald is a perfectly sensible thing to do, it’s a bit of a curious path for the Guards at first glance. Cleveland had the best bullpen in the majors in 2024 and it wasn’t close. Their relief corps had a collective 2.57 ERA in 2024, with the Brewers coming a distant second at 3.11. They traded Nick Sandlin to the Blue Jays as part of the Andrés Giménez deal last month but still have Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and others.

Given that the team doesn’t usually run huge budgets, the most straightforward way for them to allocate their resources this winter would be to upgrade the offense. The Guards hit .238/.307/.395 as a team last year, which was exactly league average. They are going into 2025 with a fairly similar group of position players. They traded Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks and then signed Carlos Santana, a roughly cash-neutral move since Santana’s salary will be fairly close to Naylor’s this year. They subtracted Giménez, who is more of a glove-first player, but now second base projects to go to a fairly unproven player like Juan Brito or Ángel Martínez.

Perhaps the Guardians will line up a trade with one of their other relievers but it’s also possible that they see the value in leaning into their strength by further upgrading the relief corps. Relievers tend to be the most volatile part of a roster these days, with regression and/or injuries entirely possible, so having another experienced arm in the mixes hedges against that.

Avila, 28, has posted some solid but not outstanding results in his career thus far. Between the Padres and Guardians, he has thrown 146 1/3 innings in his career with a 3.51 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball rate.

He exhausted his final option year with the Friars in 2023, which gave him a tenuous hold on a roster spot. He struggled out of the gate last year, which led to him being flipped to Cleveland. He ultimately finished the year with a 3.81 ERA in 82 2/3 innings.

Despite a solid campaign, Avila’s out-of-options status and a crowded Cleveland bullpen were going to make it hard for him to keep a roster spot all year, so he’s been nudged off today. The Guards will now have a week of DFA limbo to figure out what’s next, whether that’s a trade or a fate on waivers. Since the waiver process takes 48 hours, any trades would have to come together in the next five days.

Any acquiring team would have to deal with the same lack of options, though a team with a less-elite bullpen might be more able to manage that. Avila’s results have been decent and he still has less than two years of service time, meaning he hasn’t yet qualified for arbitration and could be cheaply controlled for as many as five seasons.

Pint, 27, was taken by the Rockies with the fourth overall pick in 2016. He was a top 100 prospect for a while but struggled badly with control in the minors and decided to retire in 2021. At that point, he had thrown 166 2/3 innings on the farm with a 5.56 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate and 16.8% walk rate.

He un-retired in 2022 and posted decent results that year. He threw 45 2/3 innings across multiple levels with a 4.53 ERA, 56.6% ground ball rate and 29.1% strikeout rate, though the walks were still high at 15.6%. The Rockies were encouraged enough to give him a roster spot to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

He spent most of the past two years as optionable depth for Colorado. He has just 3 2/3 major league innings on his track record, having allowed nine earned runs for an unseemly 22.09 ERA. He has struck out seven opponents but given out eight walks and plunked another two batters. Obviously, the minor league numbers have been better. He had a 3.92 ERA in 41 1/3 innings on the farm last year, striking out 36.3% of batters faced but also giving out walks at a massive 20.7% clip. He was outrighted by the Rockies in August and elected free agency at season’s end.

Pint is obviously still a project but the Guardians have a strong reputation for working with pitchers, so it’s understandable why they’d take a shot on a former top prospect without having to give up a roster spot. If he gets added to the roster at any point, he still has an option remaining and just a few days of service time.

With Sewald now added to the books, RosterResource estimates the club’s total commitments at $96MM for this year. They opened last year at $98MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. After making the postseason last year, perhaps there’s a payroll bump coming. But on the other hand, the club has no broadcast deal for this year. Their deal with Diamond Sports Group, now known as Main Street Sports, expired last year. MLB is going to be handling the broadcasts this year, an arrangement that is sure to lead to less revenue.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Sewald’s $7MM salary, with Zack Meisel of The Athletic reporting the specific breakdown.

Dodgers Sign Roki Sasaki

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Jan. 22: The Dodgers have formally announced Sasaki’s signing. Baseball America, unsurprisingly, ranked Sasaki as the new No. 1 prospect in baseball this morning.

Jan. 17: The Dodgers have landed another star out of Japan. Roki Sasaki announced on Friday evening that he’s signing with Los Angeles. The Wasserman client will reportedly receive a $6.5MM signing bonus. The Dodgers have not officially announced the deal, which can be finalized at any point until the evening of January 23.

As an international amateur, Sasaki is limited to a minor league contract with a hard-capped signing bonus. He won’t immediately occupy a 40-man roster spot, though the team will certainly select him onto the MLB roster by Opening Day. In the end, it’s a fairly unsurprising result, though other outcomes seemed somewhat possible at times. The Dodgers have long been seen as the most logical landing spot for Sasaki, and though the Padres and Blue Jays tried to make surprising runs, the most likely outcome has now come to pass.

Sasaki’s free agency has been hotly anticipated for some time. He made his debut in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball in 2021 at the young age of 19 and went on to post outstanding results over the past few years. Thanks to triple-digit velocity on his fastball and a deadly splitter, he has managed to post a 2.10 earned run average in 394 2/3 innings over the past four years. He struck out 32.7% of batters faced and limited walks to a 5.7% clip.

That performance would have made him one of the top free agents of this or any offseason, which normally would have lined him up for a massive payday. However, Sasaki seemed determined to start his major league career as soon as possible, without much regard for money.

If he had waited until he turned 25, he would have been considered a professional under MLB rules, and thus able to sign for any amount the market would bear. That was the route taken by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who secured a $325MM guarantee from the Dodgers last offseason.

But Sasaki is making the move now, having just turned 23 years old, meaning he is considered an amateur and thus subject to MLB’s international bonus pool system. Under that system, each team gets a set amount to spend on international amateurs annually. This year, each team gets between $5-8MM, a paltry amount compared to what Yamamoto secured. That at least made it theoretically possible that any club could sign him, since the big-spending clubs couldn’t outmuscle the smaller clubs like with many other free agents.

However, despite that theoretical even playing field, there were still many good reasons to expect the Dodgers to emerge victorious. Sasaki and his agent Joel Wolfe didn’t reveal much about the player’s preferences, but logically, the Dodgers are an attractive landing spot. They play on the West Coast, which is often appealing for players coming over from Asia simply due to the relative proximity. They have a strong track record of on-field success, having made the playoffs in each year going back to 2013 now and having just won the World Series a few months ago. They also roster a couple of other Japanese stars in Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani.

It wasn’t known how much Sasaki would weigh those factors compared to others. Wolfe pushed back on the notion that Sasaki cared about the presence of other Japanese players. He also suggested last month that Sasaki might prefer a smaller market, on account of some friction with the media during his time in Japan.

There were some arguments to possibly consider scenarios where he would prefer to go elsewhere. The Padres could have offered a smaller market than the Dodgers and it was reported that Sasaki has a strong relationship with current Padre Yu Darvish. The Blue Jays are owned by Rogers Communications, the club’s primary broadcaster, potentially giving them the ability to lower Sasaki’s access to the media. The fact that they are the only MLB team in Canada also theoretically opened up more endorsement opportunities from Japanese companies, as opposed to sharing the L.A. market with Ohtani and Yamamoto. The Jays also had a larger international bonus pool than the Dodgers and added to it by acquiring more pool space from the Guardians in a trade earlier today.

But despite any short-term drama that played out this offseason, the most obvious thing has happened. Sasaki has joined a team that is already loaded with stars like Ohtani, Yamamoto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. 2005 was the last time the Dodgers won fewer than 80 games and now they are adding another hugely talented player into the mix.

Adding Sasaki’s talent is a huge boost to the roster but it’s also massive from a financial point of view. As an amateur, Sasaki will only be able to make the league minimum this year and until he qualifies for arbitration or signs an extension. That’s a massive thing for a club like the Dodgers, who already owe big sums of money to their aforementioned stars as well as Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernández and plenty of others.

It also gives them an embarrassment of riches in the rotation, at least in terms of pure talent. Their rotation mix now includes Sasaki, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May. It’s a near inevitability that Clayton Kershaw will eventually re-sign. Even with each of Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan set to miss most or all of next season, the Dodgers’ rotation should run eight or nine names deep. Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, Nick Frasso and formerly touted rookie Bobby Miller are all on hand as depth starters.

It’s a staggering amount of talent for one team. The Dodgers won the World Series last year in spite of their playoff rotation. This year, the rotation should be a strength going into October. That’s despite the injury risk associated with essentially everyone in the group. Glasnow has never surpassed 134 MLB innings in a season. Yamamoto was limited to 18 starts in his first MLB season by a rotator cuff strain. Snell has only topped 130 frames twice. Kershaw, Gonsolin and May all missed most or all of last season recovering from major surgeries. Ohtani underwent elbow surgery late in 2023 and didn’t pitch last year.

Sasaki comes with plenty of durability questions in his own right. He averaged fewer than 100 innings per season over his four years in NPB. He never reached 130 innings and was limited to 111 frames across 18 appearances a year ago. Sasaki had a pair of injuries in 2024: an oblique tear and shoulder fatigue.

The Dodgers will happily take the tradeoff of some IL stints for rate dominance. Los Angeles doesn’t place much value on bulk innings. They’re content to embrace injury risk as they chase pitchers with top-of-the-rotation upside. That’s enabled in part by their resources, of course, though money isn’t a factor for Sasaki.

Every team would have been thrilled to sign Sasaki for $6.5MM. The Dodgers will also owe a $1.3MM posting fee to the pitcher’s NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines. The posting fee is proportional to the size of the player’s signing bonus. As Sasaki’s bonus was capped at a few million dollars, the Marines were limited to 20% of whatever he received.

It comes out to a $7.8MM investment to land Japan’s most talented pitcher. The Dodgers have signed arguably NPB’s best pitcher in consecutive offseasons. They’ll have Sasaki for the standard six-year window of team control associated with the promotion of any prospect. He’ll be slated for salaries around the league minimum for the next three seasons. He’d then go through three years of the arbitration process. MLB rules prohibit the Dodgers and Sasaki from reaching any kind of understanding regarding a contract extension to circumvent the bonus pool limits. While there’s no official cutoff for when the Dodgers could look to extend Sasaki, they cannot have any sort of unofficial long-term deal in the works right now.

The Dodgers opened this signing period tied with the Giants for the lowest bonus pool. They had $5.1462MM to spend on international amateurs on January 15. The Dodgers allowed a few of their verbal agreements with teenage prospects to lapse to keep open funds for Sasaki. They added to their pool by dealing minor league outfielder Dylan Campbell to the Phillies and sending outfield prospect Arnaldo Lantigua to Cincinnati tonight. Their precise bonus allotment isn’t known, but Sasaki will take the vast majority of the pool. That’s a trade every team would happily make for a potential plug-and-play ace.

It’s a brutal blow for fans of the other two finalists. The Padres found out this morning that they were out of the mix. They have multiple holes in their rotation and now face an even tougher challenge in the NL West. The Blue Jays finish as the runner-up on yet another marquee free agent talent. Toronto has lost out on Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Sasaki (among others) within the past two offseasons alone.

Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times first reported the signing bonus. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Ichiro, CC Sabathia, Billy Wagner Elected To Hall Of Fame

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The Hall of Fame announced the results of this year’s Baseball Writers Association of America voting. Ichiro, CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner topped the 75% threshold for induction. They’ll join Dick Allen and Dave Parker in the 2025 class. Allen and Parker were elected by the Classic Baseball Era committee at the Winter Meetings. Ichiro appeared on 99.7% of the ballots, falling one vote shy of unanimity.

Two of the three inductees, Ichiro and Sabathia, get into Cooperstown on their first year. Wagner gets in on his 10th and final opportunity. He’d fallen just a percentage point shy last winter and jumped beyond an 82% vote share with the writers having their last chance to elect him.

Ichiro starred in his home country before making the move to the big leagues during the 2000-01 offseason. He signed a three-year deal with the Mariners and immediately became one of the best players in franchise history. Ichiro led the majors with 242 hits and 56 stolen bases. He hit .350 to win the AL batting title at the top of a loaded Seattle lineup. The ’01 Mariners won 116 games and remain the greatest regular season team in MLB history. They lost a five-game Championship Series to the Yankees.

That was one of the best debut seasons ever. Ichiro was an All-Star and won a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove award in right field. He not only coasted to the Rookie of the Year award but narrowly surpassed Jason Giambi to win the MVP. He joined Fred Lynn as the only rookies to be named the Most Valuable Player.

While that’d be the only time that Ichiro finished top five in MVP balloting, he was the game’s best pure hitter for a decade. He topped 200 hits with an average north of .300 in each of his first 10 seasons. He had arguably his best year in 2004, when he led the majors with a .372 average and tallied a career-high 262 hits. Ichiro was a menace on the bases throughout his prime, topping 30 stolen bases on 10 occasions. He was also the sport’s best defensive right fielder, pairing plus range with an elite arm and twice leading the AL in outfield assists.

An incredibly durable player, Ichiro topped 150 games played in 13 seasons. He led the majors in hits seven times and was selected to the All-Star Game in each of his first 10 years. Ichiro remained an excellent player through his age-36 season. He played all the way until age 45, seeing action with the Yankees and Marlins. Ichiro collected his 3000th career hit while he was playing for Miami, doing it in style with a triple against Colorado’s Chris Rusin at Coors Field. Ichiro returned to Seattle for the end of his career, capping it off in a two-game series between the Mariners and A’s in front of Japanese fans at the Tokyo Dome to kick off the 2019 season.

Ichiro finished his major league career as a .311 hitter who tallied 3089 hits. That’d be a remarkable achievement for any player but is especially impressive for one who spent a few of his prime-aged seasons in NPB and didn’t make his major league debut until he was 27. Ichiro was never a huge power threat in games, though many believe that he could’ve been an impact power bat had he prioritized that over elite pure hitting ability. In any case, he concluded with 117 career homers and stole more than 500 bases. He won 10 Gold Gloves and three Silver Slugger awards.

Sabathia was a first-round pick by the Indians in 1998. He was in the majors within three years of being selected out of high school. He won 17 games during his rookie season and finished as the runner-up behind Ichiro in ’01 Rookie of the Year voting. The southpaw was a durable mid-rotation arm for Cleveland for the first few seasons of his career. He earned consecutive All-Star nods in 2003 and ’04.

While he was on track for a very good major league career, Sabathia didn’t look like a future Hall of Famer. That changed in the second half of the 2000s. Sabathia turned in a 3.22 ERA over 28 starts in 2006. He cemented himself as the game’s top workhorse the following year. Sabathia led the majors with 241 innings across 34 starts in ’07. He topped 200 strikeouts for the first time and turned in a 3.21 ERA while winning 19 games. He earned his third All-Star selection and won the Cy Young. He helped the Indians to the postseason for the first time in six years, though he struggled in two starts in the ALCS as they were knocked off by the Red Sox.

Cleveland wasn’t on a playoff track in 2008. Sabathia was an impending free agent whom the Indians had no expectation of re-signing. They traded him to the Brewers a few weeks before the deadline for a prospect package led by Matt LaPorta. While LaPorta didn’t work out, the unheralded acquisition of Michael Brantley as a “lesser” piece of that deal had a huge impact on Cleveland baseball.

Sabathia’s stint in Milwaukee was brief but could hardly have gone better. The southpaw had a legendary second half, winning 11 games with a 1.65 ERA in 17 starts. Sabathia remarkably completed seven of those starts and recorded three shutouts. He more or less carried Milwaukee to a 90-win season and a Wild Card berth, though they were bounced by the eventual champion Phillies in the Division Series. Sabathia finished that year with a career-high 253 innings and 251 strikeouts with a 2.70 earned run average. He finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting even though he spent half the season in the American League.

The following offseason, Sabathia signed with the Yankees on a seven-year, $161MM megadeal. He tossed 230 innings of 3.37 ERA ball and won an MLB-best 19 games in his first season. He followed up with a 1.98 ERA across five postseason starts, winning the ALCS MVP award while helping the Yanks to their 27th World Series title. Sabathia would respectively win 21 and 19 games over the next two years, topping 230 innings with a low-3.00s ERA in both. He finished in the top four in Cy Young voting in each of his first three seasons in pinstripes.

He earned his final All-Star nod in 2012 and reached 200 innings for the last time in ’13. Sabathia remained in the Bronx on a series of short-term deals after the expiration of his first free agent contract. He was a capable back-end starter until his retirement in 2019. Sabathia finished his career with nearly 3600 innings over parts of 19 seasons. He posted a 3.74 ERA, won 251 games, and recorded more than 3000 strikeouts. His 3093 punchouts rank 18th on the all-time leaderboard.

Wagner is the ninth primary reliever to earn the call from Cooperstown. A first-round pick of the Astros in 1993, he would spend the majority of his career in Houston. Wagner debuted in ’95 and earned his first handful of saves the following year. He was Houston’s full-time closer by ’97, when he saved 23 games with a 2.85 ERA over 66 1/3 innings.

The hard-throwing lefty reached 30 saves for the first time in his career the ensuing season. He followed up with a sterling 1.57 ERA while striking out 124 hitters across 74 2/3 frames in 1999. Wagner picked up 39 saves, earned his first All-Star nod, and landed fourth in Cy Young voting. He was named MLB’s best reliever that season.

He struggled in 2000 but rebounded with a dominant three-season stretch to close his Astros tenure. Wagner topped 60 innings with at least 35 saves while allowing an ERA of 2.73 or better in each season between 2001-03. He was selected to two more All-Star Games over that stretch. Wagner had arguably his best year in ’03. He led the majors with 67 games finished while turning in a 1.78 earned run average. Wagner struck out 105 batters — one of four career seasons in which he topped the century mark — while throwing a career-best 86 innings.

The Astros traded Wagner to Philadelphia over the 2003-04 offseason. While his first season with the Phillies was shortened by injury, he posted a 1.51 ERA with 38 saves across 77 2/3 innings in ’05. He inked a four-year free agent deal with the Mets the following offseason. Wagner earned two more All-Star selections while posting a cumulative 2.37 ERA over three and a half seasons in Queens. He had a strong month in Boston after an August ’09 trade.

Wagner returned to free agency and signed a one-year contract with the Braves. He finished his career in style, posting a 1.43 ERA with 37 saves across 69 1/3 innings at age 38. Wagner punched out 104 hitters en route to his seventh and final All-Star nod. He finished his career with a 2.31 ERA over 903 innings. Wagner recorded nearly 1200 strikeouts and ranks eighth all-time with 422 saves. He struck out a massive 33.2% of opposing hitters over a career spanning parts of 16 seasons.

Opponents of his Hall of Fame case have pointed to his lack of a postseason track record. Wagner indeed struggled in October, allowing 13 runs in 11 2/3 playoff innings over seven seasons. That’s an extremely small sample, though, and his regular season performance was remarkably consistent despite the volatility of most relief pitchers. Wagner had a sub-3.00 ERA in all but one season and reached 30 saves on nine occasions.

Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones find themselves within shouting distance of induction. Beltrán appeared on 70.3% of ballots in his third year of eligibility. That’s a marked jump from last year’s approximate 57% vote share, giving him a solid chance at election next offseason. Jones appeared on 66.2% of ballots, up around five points from last winter. He has two more seasons of eligibility.

No one else received a vote share of 40% or higher. Aside from Ichiro and Sabathia, the only first-time candidates who reached the 5% cutoff necessary to stay on the ballot were Félix Hernández (20.6%) and Dustin Pedroia (11.9%). Wagner was the only person in his final year of eligibility. No returning candidates dropped below a 5% vote share, so the only players who fell off the ballot were the first-time candidates who received minimal support.

The big question of next year’s class is whether Beltrán and (less likely) Jones will be elected. Manny Ramírez will be entering his final year of eligibility and is likely to drop off the ballot after receiving around 34% of the vote this year. Cole Hamels leads the crop of first-ballot players in what’ll likely be a smaller class than this year’s group of inductees.

Full voting breakdown available via the BBWAA. Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

White Sox Sign Martín Pérez

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January 21: The deal has now been officially announced by the White Sox.

January 8: The White Sox and left-hander Martín Pérez are in agreement on a deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. It’s a one-year, $5MM deal, per José F. Rivera of ESPN. That comes in the form of a $3.5MM salary and a $1.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for 2026, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The deal is pending a physical for the Octagon client. The Sox have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move once this deal becomes official. Their Josh Rojas deal is also still not official, so the club now needs to open two spots.

Pérez, 34 in April, is a soft-tossing veteran innings eater. He split last year between the Pirates and Padres, making 26 starts and logging 135 frames. He allowed 4.53 earned runs per nine innings, striking out 18.1% of batters faced, issuing walks at an 8.3% clip and getting grounders on 44.4% of balls in play. He averaged 91.3 miles per hour with his four-seam fastball.

Those stats are pretty close to his career numbers. Dating back to his 2012 debut, he has thrown 1,575 2/3 innings with a 4.44 ERA, 16.2% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 48.7% ground ball rate. His fastball velocity was naturally higher when he was younger, but not by much. His highest four-seam velocity in a season was 94.2 mph, back in 2019.

He did end the 2024 season on a high note. He posted a 5.20 ERA with the Bucs before being traded to the Padres at the deadline, then went on to allow 3.46 earned runs per nine after the deal. His 20.3% strikeout rate after the trade was a few ticks higher than the 16.9% rate he had with Pittsburgh. He changed up his pitch mix a bit, throwing more changeups and curveballs with the Friars, while reducing his usage of cutters and sliders.

That’s somewhat encouraging but Pérez has previously flashed better results without sustaining them. He posted a 2.89 ERA over 32 starts for the Rangers in 2022, which prompted Texas to issue him a $19.65MM qualifying offer for 2023. The southpaw accepted that but then his ERA normalized to 4.45 that year. As mentioned, he held pretty steady in 2024, with a 4.53 ERA.

It’s not the most exciting profile but he’s a sensible fit for the South Side of Chicago. The White Sox had a poor rotation last year and it’s in worse shape now. They traded Erick Fedde to the Cardinals and the deadline and then flipped Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox last month. Chris Flexen reached free agency at season’s end. That means that Jonathan Cannon is the only guy still on the roster who made more than ten starts for the Sox last year.

Pérez has made at least 26 appearances in five straight full seasons. in 2024, he went on the injured list due to a left groin muscle strain but was back in less than a month. That was his most significant IL stint since 2018. While no pitcher is guaranteed to stay healthy, Pérez is perhaps one of the safer bets to take the ball when it’s his turn, even if the results are more passable than outstanding.

Given the uncertainty in the club’s rotation, it’s a logical pick up. The Sox also added Bryse Wilson earlier this offseason, another move designed to bolster a group fairly lacking in experience. The final three spots are up for grabs, with Cannon, Davis Martin, Sean Burke, Drew Thorpe, Nick Nastrini, Jairo Iriarte, Jake Eder, Wikelman Gonzalez, Ky Bush and Juan Carela around to battle for opportunities. Prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith aren’t yet on the roster but could push into the mix during the season.

Apart from Pérez and Wilson, no one in that cluster of rotation options has even one year of major league service time. The Sox can use Pérez as a veteran anchor, at least for a few months. If he’s pitching well, he could be flipped to a contending club at the deadline, just as he was last year. That would then open up second-half starts for whichever young pitcher has earned them.

Dodgers, Kirby Yates Reportedly Reach “Tentative” Agreement

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10:55am: There’s nothing official in place yet, per reports from Jack Harris of the L.A. Times and Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (among others). Harris writes that the two parties are “working toward a deal,” while The Athletic indicates “serious” negotiations are taking place. There could simply be semantics at play. Nightengale’s initial report plainly stated that a physical still needs to take place, so there’s never been firm indication of a final deal yet. A physical for a 38-year-old pitcher with Yates’ injury history isn’t necessarily a layup, but that seems to be the stage they’ve reached. If all goes well, a deal would be announced in the next few days.

9:52am: The Dodgers and reliever Kirby Yates have reached a “tentative” agreement, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The contract is pending completion of a physical. Yates, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, would be the second high-profile bullpen addition for the Dodgers in recent days; they also inked Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal over the weekend. If the physical goes well and the deal is indeed finalized, L.A. will need to make a corresponding transaction to remove someone from the 40-man roster.

It’s the latest strike in an offseason spending blitz that has seen the Dodgers make free agent plays for Scott, Blake Snell, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Treinen, Michael Conforto and international stars Hyeseong Kim and Roki Sasaki. Those additions come as Los Angeles looks to become the first repeat World Series champion since the Yankees’ threepeat back in 1998-2000.

Manager Dave Roberts’ bullpen has been completely remade over the past six months, beginning with the deadline acquisition of Michael Kopech. In late July, closer Evan Phillips was struggling at the time of that Kopech acquisition, and much of the bullpen was in a state of flux. Since then, the Dodgers have acquired Kopech, activated Treinen from the injured list (and, this offseason, re-signed him to a two-year deal) and now signed both Scott and Yates in free agency. A late-inning contingent of Scott, Yates, Kopech, Phillips and Treinen is very arguably the most talented quintet of any team in baseball.

It should be noted, however, that Nightengale suggests the Dodgers recently learned of an injury to Kopech that could cost him at least a month of the season. Details on said injury have yet to surface, but that revelation likely played a part in the team’s decision to close an agreement with Yates.

Yates himself isn’t without risk. He’ll turn 38 in March, and he pitched all of 11 major league innings from 2020-22 due to injuries (Tommy John surgery, most notably). The veteran closer returned with a healthy but shaky season for the 2023 Braves, logging a sharp 3.28 ERA in 60 1/3 innings but also walking nearly 15% of his opponents. He improved across the board with the 2024 Rangers, firing 61 2/3 innings of 1.17 ERA ball with a gargantuan 35.9% strikeout rate. His 11.8% walk rate was still noticeably higher than the 8.2% league average but a substantial improvement over his 2023 campaign nonetheless.

Yates ranked second among all free agent relievers in strikeout rate last year, trailing only Aroldis Chapman. He paced all qualified free agent relievers in ERA and ranked seventh or better in SIERA (2.85), K-BB% (24.1) and swinging-strike rate (15.2%). No qualified free agent reliever missed bats within the strike zone as much as Yates; his opponents’ 74.3% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone sat at the top of this year’s free agent class and sat as the third-best mark in all of baseball for pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched, trailing only Josh Hader and Mason Miller.

Dating back to his breakout with the 2018 Padres, Yates has consistently been outstanding when healthy enough to take the hill. He’s pitched 257 innings in that time and boasts a 2.21 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate. He’s leaned on a lethal four-seamer and splitter pairing that’s helped him miss bats in droves while piling up 93 saves and 30 holds in 262 appearances on the mound.

The Dodgers are already well into the fourth and final tier of luxury penalization. Any dollars allocated to Yates will come with a 110% tax, as was the case with Scott. RosterResource already projects the team’s luxury tax ledger to sit at a staggering $371MM; the addition of Yates could push their CBT number close to $400MM. The Dodgers were already set to owe around $108MM in overage taxes before the signing of Yates; presuming he gets an eight-figure salary, they’ll very likely owe more than $120MM in taxes alone.

Blue Jays Sign Anthony Santander

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The Blue Jays finally have a big splash, plucking a slugger from a division rival. The Jays officially announced the signing of star outfielder Anthony Santander to a five-year contract. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client is reportedly guaranteed $92.5MM, though heavy deferrals drop the net present value. For luxury tax purposes, the contract reportedly comes with an average annual value around $14MM — suggesting MLB calculates the net present value closer to $70MM. Santander can opt out after the third year, though the club will have the ability to override that by picking up an option for 2030. That has a base value of $15MM and contains a $5MM buyout.

The option and various escalators could tack on another $17.5MM over that sixth season. The deal is frontloaded and contains upwards of $35MM in deferrals, which can push beyond $50MM depending on the opt-out/option result. Toronto designated lefty Brandon Eisert for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot.

Santander, 30, has established himself as one of the better power bats in the league in recent years. That included a huge 44-homer tally in 2024. That was his personal best but it was also his sixth straight season in double digits and third straight with at least 28 long balls.

Earlier in his career, he undercut that power production somewhat with more tepid results in terms of batting average and drawing walks, though he has been better at drawing free passes over the past three years. From 2019 to 2021, he hit 49 homers in 240 games but only had a 5.2% walk rate. That led to a .252/.295/.474 batting line and 100 wRC+, indicating his strengths and weaknesses evened out to league average production on the whole.

For the 2022 to 2024 seasons, Santander improved his walk rate by a few ticks, finishing between 8.4% and 8.7% in each of those. That’s roughly league average, with all MLB hitters walking at an 8.2% clip last year. He added those walks without sacrificing his power, putting the ball over the wall 105 times, which made for a productive combination. He had a combined line of .244/.317/.478 for those three campaigns, which translated to a 124 wRC+.

Apart from those home runs, Santander’s contributions have been fairly limited. As mentioned, the on-base abilities have been subpar overall, though fairly decent in the past three years. He’s not a burner on the basepaths, having only once stolen more than two bases in a season. His outfield defense has generally been graded as a bit below league average. He has a career tally of -3 Defensive Runs Saved in over 5,000 outfield innings, with Outs Above Average having him at -13.

Though he’s not the most well-rounded player, he’s a strong fit for the Blue Jays for multiple reasons. The club’s offense was actually around league average last year, though with far better on-base ability than power production. As a team, the Jays slashed .241/.313/.389 for a 101 wRC+, tied for 13th in the league. Their 8.4% walk rate was actually one of the better marks, tied for seventh among the 30 MLB clubs. But they only hit 156 home runs, with just the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox below them. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the only guy on the team to reach the 20-homer plateau.

On top of that, Santander is a switch-hitter, with the Jays having been more right-leaning in recent years. Guerrero, Bo Bichette, George Springer and Alejandro Kirk all project for regular roles next year and each is right-handed. Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider, Leo Jiménez and Orelvis Martínez are also righties who could earn spots on the team. The Jays do have a few lefties, with Daulton Varsho, Andrés Giménez, Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido among them, though there are question marks there. Varsho and Giménez have been more glove-first players while Wagner and Loperfido are still lacking in big league experience. Santander’s splits have been fairly close to neutral in his career. He has hit .252/.320/.467 for a 116 wRC+ against lefties, .243/.302/.470 for a 111 wRC+ against righties.

The defensive hit from rostering Santander is also perhaps not a huge deal for Toronto. The Jays, as a team, led the league with 102 DRS last year. Their 26 OAA tally was fourth in the league. Sacrificing a bit of defensive value for the big power bat they need is a sensible tradeoff for them. They also don’t have a regular designated hitter and can perhaps keep Santander in that slot with some regularity. Justin Turner took most of the club’s DH plate appearances in 2024 before being traded to the Mariners at the deadline.

Beyond the on-field fit, the Jays have clearly been looking for a big offseason W for quite some time. The past year-plus has seen them make strong pursuits of marquee players, such as Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Roki Sasaki, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes, but with the Jays coming up just short in all of those.

After missing on Ohtani last winter, the Jays pivoted to modest moves, re-signing Kevin Kiermaier as well as adding Turner, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Yariel Rodríguez. No one in that group got a guarantee larger than $32MM. The 2024 season then went on to be a massive disappointment, with the Jays engineering a midseason selloff and finishing at 74-88. They seemed to come into this winter looking to mollify a disgruntled fan base but the near misses on Soto, Sasaki, Fried and Burnes only appeared to make things worse. Whether Santander is a true star is subjective, though this signing will be Toronto’s biggest since they signed Kevin Gausman three years ago.

One silver lining of the 2024 season falling apart for the Jays was that their midseason selling dipped them below the competitive balance tax, which lowered their penalties for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer. That is the case here, as the Orioles extended a QO to Santander, which he naturally rejected. Had the Jays paid the tax in 2024, they would have forfeited $1MM of international bonus pool space by signing Santander, in addition to surrendering their second- and fifth-best picks in the draft. By ducking under the tax, the penalty is just $500K of 2026 pool space and only their second-best pick. Since Santander is guaranteed more than $50MM on this deal, the O’s will receive a compensation pick after the first round of this summer’s draft.

Coming into the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Santander could secure a four-year, $80MM pact. He seemed to have plenty of interest, with the Jays connected to him early on. Clubs like the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees and Angels were also rumored to be interested at various times. Santander and his reps reportedly tried to parlay that interest into a five-year deal and/or a $100MM guarantee in December, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. But he lingered unsigned into the new year and reportedly had some openness to considering a shorter pact.

In the end, he has gotten his five years, though at a lesser average annual value than he was seeking. The sticker price of $92.5MM over five years leads to an $18.5MM AAV, but the deferrals reduce that by a decent amount. The opt-out gives him a chance at some more future earnings, though the Jays could pick up the option and effectively make it $110MM over six years.

Using the pre-deferral $18.5MM AAV, RosterResource projects the club for a $237MM payroll and $263MM CBT calculation for this year. The club opened with a payroll of $225MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so they’re already beyond that. President Mark Shapiro previously suggested that he didn’t expect the club’s spending to drastically change compared to last year, perhaps suggesting there’s not much room left in the budget now. Though Scott Mitchell of TSN suggests that signing Pete Alonso is still a possibility for the Jays even after getting Santander, seemingly indicating otherwise. The club also reportedly has some interest in starting pitching upgrades and has been working to bolster the bullpen all winter. The CBT number is already beyond this year’s $261MM second tier, though the club will be a “first-time” payor on account of ducking under last year.

Perhaps the Jays will make some more additions, such as bringing in Alonso. Such a move would force him and Guerrero to share first base and the DH slot, thus pushing Santander into being an everyday outfielder. If that comes to pass, he would surely be in one corner with Springer in the other. Varsho will be the club’s regular center fielder once he’s healthy. Guys like Loperfido, Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Jonatan Clase and Alan Roden will either be options for depth roles or bench jobs. If Santander is able to serve as the DH more regularly, that could perhaps open more outfield playing time for those others.

For the clubs that missed on Santander, the outfield market is fairly thinned out. In addition to Santander, guys like Soto, Teoscar Hernández, Michael Conforto and Tyler O’Neill have come off the board. Jurickson Profar now stands alone as the top unsigned option, so perhaps his market will now pick up. Guys like Randal Grichuk, Harrison Bader, Mark Canha and others are also available.

Jon Morosi of MLB Network first reported that Santander and the Jays were in agreement, pending a physical. Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet later reported that the physical was complete. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 first reported the five-year length, the opt-out/club option override, the signing bonus, the $92.5MM guarantee and the possibility to get to $110MM. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the opt-out is after 2027. Nicholson-Smith reported the frontloaded nature, as well as the approximate $14MM CBT value. Alexander reported that more than $35MM was deferred.

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