Notes

AL East Notes: Morton, Rays, Neander, Yankees

By Mark Polishuk | January 12, 2025 at 2:57pm CDT

As has been the custom over his last few seasons, veteran right-hander Charlie Morton talked things over with his wife after the 2024 campaign to figure out whether or not he would again try to ramp up for another run. This time, however, Morton might’ve on some level made his decision even before his 2024 season was over. Morton told MLB.com’s Jake Rill and other reporters that in his final start of the regular season with the Braves, “I remember walking off the field and just this like sinking feeling in my stomach — it just didn’t feel right. I’m sure a lot of guys toward the end of their careers, they think about retiring, shutting it down, and you really want to walk off the field the last time and feel good about it. And a lot of guys don’t get that opportunity. I just didn’t feel good about it. I felt like I could have done better. I felt like I still had the tools to be a good pitcher in the big leagues.”

Now set to begin his 18th big league season, the 41-year-old Morton signed a one-year, $15MM deal with the Orioles. It was an ideal fit for Morton both because the O’s are a contender, and for important off-the-field reasons. Morton and his wife Cindy each have family relatively near the Baltimore area, and the Orioles’ Spring Training camp in Sarasota is near the Mortons’ home in Bradenton, Florida.

Red Sox Notes: Arenado, Casas, Bregman, Sasaki

By Mark Polishuk | January 5, 2025 at 10:31pm CDT

Reports last month from MLB.com’s John Denton indicated that the Red Sox, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Dodgers, and Angels were six of the teams (and perhaps the only six teams) Nolan Arenado was willing to waive his no-trade protection to join, should the Cardinals work out an acceptable swap with any of these clubs. Four weeks after that initial report, Boston remains “a preferred destination” for Arenado, according to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam. What isn’t known, however, is if the Red Sox and Cardinals are anywhere close on a deal, or if the Sox are particularly motivated to bring Arenado to Beantown.

Acquiring Arenado would check a couple of big needs off of Boston’s offseason shopping list. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow reiterated earlier this week that the Sox were looking to add “a right-handed bat out of the middle of the lineup,” considering that the team is heavy with left-handed hitters. Bringing one of the best defensive third basemen of all time to Fenway Park would instantly help Boston’s subpar infield defense, and Arenado would even be reunited with his good friend and former Rockies teammate Trevor Story.

One initial roadblock, of course, is the fact that the Red Sox already have a star third baseman in Rafael Devers. Though Arenado has indicated that he is open to a position change in the right circumstance and Devers’ agent said in no uncertain terms in November that his client was staying at third base, it is hard to believe that Arenado would move off the hot corner in deference to a much weaker fielder in Devers. If a trade did happen, Devers would presumably become the new first baseman or DH, though this creates other conflicts with Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida.

Both of those players, however, have been mentioned in trade talks this winter, and even in some of the same trade talks. Casas is the far more valuable trade asset of the two, and while Breslow said “we’re certainly not shopping him,” that naturally doesn’t mean Casas is off limits. Indeed, Cotillo and McAdam write that “there remains a belief in the industry that the Red Sox remain open to trading Casas, potentially for young pitching, to facilitate other roster maneuvering.”

It could be that the Sox are looking to first trade Casas before making any other moves, as their leverage in a Casas deal would be lessened if the Red Sox created a positional logjam beforehand. Trading Casas purely as a vehicle to clear payroll space surely isn’t Breslow’s preference, which is why that aforementioned attempt to link Yoshida and Casas together was still part of an attempt to bring Luis Castillo from Seattle to Boston.

Payroll is also a major aspect of any Arenado trade, as the third baseman is owed $74MM over the remaining three seasons of his contract. Between deferrals and the $10MM being covered by the Rockies, the present-day value of Arenado’s contract reportedly works out to $60MM. The Cardinals’ chief incentive in trading Arenado is naturally to move as much of this money as possible, and the proposed deal with the Astros that Arenado blocked would’ve seen Houston take on either $45MM (as per Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of the Athletic) or $59MM (as per ESPN’s Jeff Passan) of the $60MM figure.

Theoretically, the Red Sox could absorb the entire contract and still stay under the $241MM luxury tax threshold, as RosterResource estimates Boston’s current tax number at just under $212MM. It remains unclear exactly how much payroll capacity Breslow has been allotted this winter, as while the Sox have made overtures to several top free agents, their spending has been pretty modest to date. The Red Sox could perhaps convince the Cardinals to take on a bigger chunk of Arenado’s salary (or at least closer to the $45MM figure) if better prospects are offered in return. Chaim Bloom’s involvement in this speculative trade is an interesting wrinkle, as the incoming St. Louis president of baseball operations has plenty of knowledge of Boston’s farm system due to his past stint as the Red Sox CBO.

Trading for Arenado would come at a lesser overall cost than signing Alex Bregman, another top third baseman who remains on Boston’s radar. That said, the Red Sox are known to still be in the running for Bregman, who has some notable ties to the Sox in manager Alex Cora (from their days together in Houston) and his longtime friend Walker Buehler, who just signed with the Sox himself before Christmas. Buehler recently told Cotillo and other reporters that even in his brief time in a Sox uniform, “I have certainly made a pitch all over the place for [Bregman] to come to Boston.”

Turning to other Red Sox targets, it remains unknown if Boston is still one of the teams getting consideration from Roki Sasaki. Earlier this week, Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe updated reporters on his client’s search for a Major League team, and didn’t give any indication that the right-hander was finished with his in-person meetings with interested clubs.

The Red Sox weren’t one of the seven teams known to have spoken with Sasaki already, and word hasn’t broken if a meeting has been scheduled or perhaps it is has already taken place since Wolfe’s last presser. As of yesterday, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reported that the Sox hadn’t “been told they are out of” the running for Sasaki’s services, so the situation is still up in the air.

Marlins Notes: Payroll, Alcantara

By Mark Polishuk | December 24, 2024 at 5:59pm CDT

The rebuilding Marlins have continued to subtract from their big league roster this winter, trading Jake Burger to the Rangers and Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies. Since Burger wasn’t yet arbitration-eligible and Luzardo was projected for a modest $6MM in his second arb year, the trades were more about adding young talent than cutting payroll, yet losing even Luzardo’s estimated $6MM salary has an additional impact on a bigger-picture question facing Miami’s finances.

As observed by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (using estimates from RosterResource), the Marlins have a luxury tax number of roughly $82.8MM. This leaves the Fish some ground to cover before they reach the $105MM threshold estimated as the figure representing 150 percent of the club’s reported $70MM or so in revenue-sharing funds. As stipulated by the league’s collective bargaining agreement, teams who receive revenue-sharing funds must spend at least 150 percent of those funds on player payroll, at the risk of facing a grievance from the players’ union.

It wouldn’t be the first time that the Marlins faced this consequence, as the MLBPA filed a grievance against the Marlins, Rays, Pirates, and Athletics in February 2018 based on the union’s stance that the clubs were simply pocketing a good deal of their revenue-sharing money, rather than reinvesting those funds towards player payroll. Rosenthal and his Athletic colleague Evan Drellich recently noted that that grievance was still pending in an adjusted form, though the most recent CBA saw the minimum spend rise from 125 percent to its current 150 percent figure.

The revenue-sharing minimum drew more of a spotlight this winter when the A’s started to increase their payroll, which was viewed as the team trying to hit that $105MM tax number and avoid any heat from the players’ union. The Athletics’ situation is a little different since their revenue-sharing status was reduced in the earlier years of the CBA while the team was looking for a new ballpark, and they are now back to receiving a full-fledged share of revenue-sharing funds in 2025.

The Marlins have generally been among the lowest-spending teams in baseball for most of their history, and spanning multiple ownership groups. Bruce Sherman’s purchase of the Marlins in 2017 was initially viewed as a possible light at the end of the payroll tunnel, though the sudden departure of CEO Derek Jeter prior to the 2022 season threw a wrench into that perception, especially since payroll expenditures were reportedly one of several sources of disagreement between Sherman and Jeter.

Miami did elevate spending a bit under GM Kim Ng and the team made the playoffs in 2023, but Sherman’s desire for a better farm system led to Ng’s departure after that season, and the hiring of Peter Bendix as the Marlins’ new president of baseball operations. Taking a page from Bendix’s former team in Tampa Bay, the Marlins seem to be moving towards a Rays-esque model of relying on a strong minor league pipeline to build their rosters, while only modestly spending on payrolls. Bendix’s arrival kickstarted yet another rebuild, as the Marlins have dealt several of their more experienced and higher-priced players over the last year.

As much as the Athletics’ winter moves were made with the revenue-sharing number in mind, acquiring Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, and Gio Urshela are also sensible from an on-field standpoint, given the club’s needs in the rotation and at third base. Considering that the A’s played solid baseball over the last three months of the 2024 season, the West Sacramento team might even have some darkhorse potential as a wild card contender if everything breaks right and the Athletics get another breakout or two from younger players.

The Marlins are in a different situation. While there is some interesting talent on the roster, it is very hard to imagine Miami contending in 2025, nor does contending seem to be in the front office’s plans within the near future as Bendix focused on overhauling the player development system.

Spending $22.2MM to get up to the $105MM threshold likely won’t translate, therefore, in any additions that will help Miami win ballgames in 2025. The Marlins could add a couple of lower-cost veterans on one-year deals, with an eye towards potentially trading those players at the deadline once the majority of their salaries have been officially tallied onto the team’s tax bill. With a nod towards the Marlins’ goal of restocking the farm system, Bendix could potentially look into trading for a bad contract or two from another team, with that other team adding some prospects as a sweetener to further entice Miami into absorbing most or all of the money owed.

Unsurprisingly, Bendix didn’t provide many details on the Marlins’ spending plans, telling the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson and other reporters this week that “I’m not going to comment on what we might or might not do. Bruce continues to give us all the resources we need to build this franchise for sustainable success.”

Bendix also didn’t entirely close the door on the possibility that Sandy Alcantara could be traded, saying that “We never rule out anything. We listen to everything.” That said, Alcantara was told back in August that he probably wasn’t getting dealt this offseason, and Bendix noted that “Sandy is a really important piece for our organization. I’m really excited to see him pitch on Opening Day.”

Alcantara is the highest-paid player on Miami’s roster, as the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner is owed $17MM in each of the next two seasons, plus there is a $21MM club option ($2MM buyout) on his services for 2027. This salary has naturally made Alcantara the subject of continued trade rumors, even though Alcantara didn’t pitch in 2024 due to Tommy John surgery.

Obviously the Marlins wouldn’t be trading the right-hander for a maximum return in the wake of this injury, which is why a deal this winter remains unlikely. If Bendix was to sell low on Alcantara now only to see him rebound to ace form in the early part of the 2025 season, that’ll count as a missed opportunity to gain the biggest possible trade package for the Marlins’ biggest remaining trade chip. Miami’s payroll might also factor into the equation here, as Rosenthal notes that trading Alcantara would leave the Marlins even further away from the $105MM revenue-sharing threshold.

Just as Bendix isn’t likely to openly state that Alcantara is available in trade talks, the PBO also isn’t likely to entirely shut down any offers because of basic due diligence. Bendix surely doesn’t want to limit options just in case a pitching-needy team actually is willing to part with a premium return for a pitcher coming off a lost season.

Mets Notes: Pederson, Alonso, Third Base, Rotation

By Leo Morgenstern | December 24, 2024 at 12:07pm CDT

The Mets have already added one of the best left-handed hitters in the game this offseason, signing Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765MM deal. However, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests they were recently in on another big lefty bat: Joc Pederson. That was, of course, before Pederson agreed to a two-year, $37MM deal with the Rangers early on Monday morning.

Presumably, the Mets were interested in Pederson as a designated hitter. Coming off an excellent 2024 campaign, he would have made a strong replacement for J.D. Martinez. Like Pederson, Martinez became a free agent at the end of the season. If the Mets are still in the market for a DH after losing out on Pederson, their options are somewhat limited. Martinez might be the best true DH left in free agency. They could, of course, pursue an outfielder like Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández, but those two are looking for significantly more money than Pederson, and, presumably, they would prefer to continue playing the outfield.

However, if it’s really just another big bat the Mets are looking for, the best solution could also be the most straightforward: re-signing first baseman Pete Alonso. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported on Sunday that the Mets are still “pushing hard” to re-sign their homegrown slugger. If that’s true, it’s difficult to imagine Alonso ending up anywhere else. Teams like the Yankees and Astros have already filled their holes at first base. And when the Mets set their sights on a target, they’re not easy to outbid.

Nightengale also notes that the Mets “like their internal options” at third base – in other words, he implies they aren’t likely suitors for star third baseman Alex Bregman. However, it’s not clear if that is at all contingent on the team re-signing Alonso. If Alonso is back in Queens next season, Mark Vientos is the obvious candidate to play third base. Vientos was one of the team’s best hitters in 2024, while also providing capable defense at the hot corner. Yet, if Alonso signs elsewhere, Vientos is likely to move across the diamond and take over at first. Simply put, there is a massive difference between Vientos and the next-best option at third base, which seems to be former top prospect and unproven big leaguer Brett Baty. The other internal options include Ronny Mauricio, who spent the entire 2024 season on the IL, and Luisangel Acuña, a second baseman/shortstop who has never played third base professionally. It’s hard to believe the Mets would feel confident going into the season without a more reliable player at third base.

It’s easier to accept the notion that the Mets are done adding to their rotation, which Will Sammon of The Athletic suggests is the case. After agreeing to a three-year, $75MM deal with Sean Manaea, the Mets have now signed three notable free agent starters: Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Clay Holmes. Those three will join Kodai Senga and David Peterson in the rotation, with Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning, and Tylor Megill offering additional depth. Top prospect Brandon Sproat is another arm who could start for the Mets at some point in 2025.

With Senga and Manaea occupying the top two spots in the rotation, the Mets don’t have a bona fide ace like Zack Wheeler of the Phillies or Chris Sale of the Braves. However, their starting pitching depth looks like it’s going to be an asset. They would surely find room for Roki Sasaki if the NPB superstar chooses to sign in Queens, but otherwise, the Mets seem to have all the starters they can carry to begin the 2025 campaign.

Rays Notes: Littell, Outfield, Caballero, Front Office

By Nick Deeds | December 22, 2024 at 1:08pm CDT

The Rays made a long-awaited trade from their rotation depth last week when they packaged left-hander Jeffrey Springs and reliever Jacob Lopez in a deal with the A’s that brought back right-hander Joe Boyle, two minor leaguers, and a pick in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2025 draft. Prior to that deal, Springs was viewed alongside right-hander Zack Littell as the two most likely Rays hurlers to be moved this winter. Now that Springs is off the board, however, ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that the Rays are “less likely” to part with Littell this winter.

That’s not exactly surprising. After all, while the Rays have a considerable rotation surplus with a number of excellent potential arms, those arms generally come with question marks. Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen will both have recently returned from elbow surgery and could see their innings managed, while youngsters like Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot, and Taj Bradley have never even thrown 150 innings in a big league season before in their careers. That leaves Littell, who threw 156 1/3 innings of work across 29 starts for the Rays last year, as potentially the club’s most durable arm headed into 2025. Given the frequency with which pitchers get hurt in the modern game, having a sixth starter locked and loaded is hardly a bad idea in case of injuries for any club, to say nothing of the value it could provide a club with a rotation that sports as many injury risks as the Rays’ does.

Of course, it’s impossible to rule out a trade completely when discussing a player with just one year remaining before free agency on the Rays. The club’s front office typically attempts to cash in their players on the trade market before they reach free agency, and even if Littell starts the season with the Rays a midseason trade can’t be ruled out. With that said, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently suggested that the club might be more or less done making moves after dealing Springs and adding Danny Jansen in free agency. One place Topkin suggests the club could look to make an addition is in the outfield, particularly if a lefty bat were to fall into the club’s lap in free agency or via trade. Topkin makes particular mention of Joc Pederson and Jurickson Profar as hypothetical options, though he’s quick to note that either player would surely need to see their market in free agency crater before they’d become realistic options for the Rays as things stand.

A more likely outcome in Topkin’s view seems to be going with internal options. That could include giving infielder José Caballero a serious look in the outfield. With Josh Lowe locked into one starting outfield spot and some combination of Jonny DeLuca, Christopher Morel, and Richie Palacios slated to handle the rest of the playing time on the grass as things stand, mixing Caballero in would give the club additional depth in the outfield should they fail to make an external addition. It’s easy to imagine Caballero’s strong glove at shortstop translating fairly well to the outfield grass, and getting a speedster who stole an AL-best 44 bases in just 483 plate appearances last year into the lineup more regularly could help to spark the club’s offense. With that being said, Caballero’s .227/.283/.347 (83 wRC+) slash line last year likely isn’t enough to make it as an outfield regular unless he proves to be a plus defensive option in center.

Turning to off-the-field matters, Topkin also reports that the club currently has no plans to install a GM beneath president of baseball operations Erik Neander. Current Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix served as GM of the Rays under Neander before taking his current gig with Miami last winter, but Topkin suggests that the club’s current set up of two vice presidents and four assistant GMs serving as Neander’s top lieutenants suits the Rays just fine and that Bendix’s title will remain unfilled for the foreseeable future.

Phillies Notes: Kepler, Further Offseason Moves, Sasaki

By Leo Morgenstern | December 21, 2024 at 9:33am CDT

The Phillies might have already made their biggest moves of the offseason. On Friday, the team announced the signing of outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year, $10MM deal. Kepler’s is the second major league contract Philadelphia has given out this winter; they signed right-handed reliever Jordan Romano to a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee earlier this month. At a recent press conference, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested those two signings are likely his primary offseason additions.

The executive spoke favorably of Kepler, praising his selectivity and bat-to-ball skills. According to Baseball Savant, the Phillies ranked among the bottom half of teams in contact and chase rate in 2024. Evidently, Dombrowski is hoping Kepler will help to fix that problem. His chase rate was below average this past year but typically ranks among the top 25% of the league. Meanwhile, his contact rate has been above average in every season of his career.

Kepler will slot into the lineup as the primary left fielder. Although he has never played the position at the MLB level, Dombrowski has no concerns about his ability to quickly pick it up. He has graded out as an excellent defensive right fielder throughout his career. Of more concern than Kepler’s ability to play left field is his ability to hit left-handed pitching. The lefty batter had reverse platoon splits in 2024 but has often struggled against southpaws in his career. Dombrowski makes it clear that Kepler won’t just be the strong side of a platoon in Philadelphia. However, the POBO identifies the righty-batting Weston Wilson as someone who could occasionally cover for Kepler with a tough lefty on the mound. Johan Rojas is another righty-batting outfielder on the roster, but he’ll most likely be busy covering for center fielder Brandon Marsh, another lefty-batting outfielder with poor platoon splits.

While Dombrowski spoke highly of Kepler, he acknowledged that his new signing is coming off a down year. It’s debatable how true that is; Kepler’s .682 OPS and 94 wRC+ in 2024 were a big step down from his .816 OPS and 123 wRC+ in 2023, but right in line with his .694 OPS and 95 wRC+ from 2021-22. The version of Kepler on display in 2024 might be closer to his true talents than the version we saw in 2023. Regardless, Dombrowski offered some insight into why the outfielder took a step back in 2024 and why the Phillies are optimistic he’ll improve in 2025. Kepler was playing through a core muscle injury for much of the 2024 season. However, he had surgery to repair the issue this offseason and has already recovered. Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long watched him swing earlier, and Dombrowski suggests Long was pleased with what he saw.

While Kepler and Romano are both looking to bounce back from injuries in 2025, Dombrowski would not characterize either signing as bargain bin shopping. He emphasized that Kepler and Romano are simply two players the team wanted – indeed, he says they have liked Kepler for quite a while – and it was the players themselves who sought one-year deals. It seems that both are hoping to boost their value and re-enter the free agent market next offseason.

On a similar note, Dombrowski also denied that he is working under strict payroll constraints. That said, he did make it quite clear that he almost certainly isn’t looking to sign any additional impact free agents. If that proves to be true, this would be the first offseason in Dombrowski’s tenure with the Phillies that he didn’t sign a free agent to a nine-figure contract. However, Philadelphia’s payroll is still projected to increase by more than $30MM to a franchise-record $280MM in 2025 (per RosterResource). That’s largely because the three-year, $126MM extension Zack Wheeler signed this past March will begin next year. In other words, one could argue that Dombrowski did sign a nine-figure deal this offseason – he just did it several months early.

As for smaller additions to improve the team along the margins, Dombrowski identifies two needs: one more position player for the bench and a swingman for the pitching staff. Currently, the Phillies have three bench players who seem to be locks for the Opening Day roster: utility infielder Edmundo Sosa, fourth outfielder Rojas, and backup catcher Garrett Stubbs. They could use one more option who can play both the infield and the outfield. While Dombrowski doesn’t eliminate the possibility of seeking an external upgrade, he suggests the Phillies are more likely to stick with their internal candidates. He names Wilson, Kody Clemens, and Buddy Kennedy as three players who could fill that role from within the organization.

Wilson has the most MLB success of the trio, albeit in a small sample size, and Dombrowski mentioned his name multiple times during the presser. The only thing working against his chances of making the Opening Day roster right now is the fact that he still has one option year remaining. Clemens and Kennedy are out of options, which means the Phillies would risk losing them through waivers if they don’t put them on the active roster. On the other hand, Clemens is at a disadvantage as another lefty bat, while Kennedy has very limited professional experience playing the outfield.

Turning to the pitching staff, Dombrowski is more likely to look outside the organization for an upgrade. Ideally, he’d like an arm that could potentially take the fifth spot in the rotation but could also pitch out of the bullpen if Taijuan Walker wins the fifth starter job out of camp. That seems to describe someone like Spencer Turnbull, who the Phillies signed for one year and $2MM last offseason. Turnbull made seven starts and 10 relief appearances for Philadelphia before suffering a season-ending injury. Jakob Junis could be an intriguing option to fill that role in 2025. The 32-year-old righty has made 27 starts and 60 relief appearances over the past three years, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and 3.62 SIERA.

The Phillies currently have six locks for the Opening Day bullpen. Dombrowski describes Romano, Matt Strahm, José Alvarado, and Orion Kerkering as back-end arms, and he identifies Tanner Banks and José Ruiz as middle-inning relievers the team likes. That leaves two bullpen spots open. One spot would presumably go to the aforementioned swingman. The other will most likely remain up for grabs entering spring training. Dombrowski mentioned Max Lazar as one possibility to win the job. The righty struggled in a handful of big league appearances this past year but excelled in the minors.

One final point of interest from Dombrowski’s press conference was his brief discussion of NPB phenom Roki Sasaki. The executive made it clear the Phillies would love to engage in further discussions with Sasaki and his team, but at this time, Philadelphia has not been invited to do so. That’s not entirely surprising – the Phillies never seemed like a frontrunner in the Sasaki sweepstakes – but it’s still a disappointing update.

Yankees Notes: Williams, Loaisiga, Bellinger, Trevino

By Steve Adams | December 18, 2024 at 12:23pm CDT

It’s been a frenetic week-plus for the Yankees, who over the past ten days have watched Juan Soto sign with the Mets and quickly pivoted to bring lefty Max Fried, closer Devin Williams and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger into the fold. There’s still more on the Yankees’ short-term to-do list, but Williams also offered a glimpse at a potential conversation that could be had in the coming months. Asked by the YES Network’s Jack Curry about the possibility of signing a long-term contract in the Bronx, Williams replied that it’s “definitely an option.” As it stands, he’s heading into his final season of club control before free agency.

Williams has been one of the game’s most dominant relievers since making his debut. The 2020 National League Rookie of the Year ranks in the top-three of all big league pitchers (min. 200 innings) in both ERA (1.83, second) and strikeout rate (39.4%, third) since coming into the league.

Detractors might point to Williams surrendering what was effectively a season-ending home run to Pete Alonso against the Mets in the NLDS, but it’s rare for the righty to falter in that manner. Since 2020, his first full big league season, no pitcher in baseball has a higher win probability added than Williams. He’s been placed into 138 save/hold situations in his career and only blown the opportunity 10 times. Broadly speaking, Williams has done his best work in high-leverage spots, that lasting memory from the ’24 postseason notwithstanding.

A pitcher with Williams’ stuff and track record should have the opportunity to command one of the largest deals ever for a reliever next winter — provided he maintains that standard in his first season with the Yankees. Williams will pitch nearly all of this season at 30 years of age, turning 31 in September. Age and perhaps some health questions — he missed three months in 2024 with multiple stress fractures in his back — might keep him from quite reaching the same heights that Edwin Diaz (five years, $102MM) and his former teammate Hader (five years, $95MM) reached in free agency. Diaz was 29 in the first year of his contract. Hader was 30.

Still, Williams could reasonably expect to command at least four years, if not five, and he’d be able to push into the rarefied air of $16-20MM average annual values for relievers that have only been attainable for the game’s truly elite stoppers over the past few years. Diaz, Hader, Wade Davis, Liam Hendriks, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman are the only relievers to command multi-year deals with AAVs of $16MM or more.

Whether the two sides will actually get into serious negotiations is an open question, but Williams’ ostensible openness is of some note. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM in his final arbitration this coming season, and one would presume he and his reps at Klutch Sports are eyeing an annual salary of $18MM or more for his free agent seasons. It’d be a costly endeavor, but the Yankees have been willing to make huge commitments to the bullpen in the past (e.g. Chapman, Zack Britton).

Elsewhere in the Yankee bullpen is another potentially dominant arm: righty Jonathan Loaisiga. The Yanks more quietly re-signed the Nicaraguan-born righty this month. He’s currently eight months removed from an internal brace procedure to repair a UCL tear in his right elbow. Pitching coach Matt Blake told reporters today, including Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, that the aim is for Loaisiga to be back in the Yankees’ big league bullpen by late April or early May.

The 30-year-old Loaisiga has only reached 50 innings in one big league season but has been excellent when healthy enough to take the ball. Dating back to 2020, the oft-injured righty sports a 2.98 ERA with a below-average 20.3% strikeout rate but a strong 6.5% walk rate and an elite 58% ground-ball rate. Since largely shelving his four-seamer in favor of a sinker, Loaisiga has averaged a blazing 98.1 mph on that sinker, also employing a changeup to help keep lefties off balance. It seems the current expectation is for Loaisiga to open the season on the injured list, but it may not be a particularly lengthy stay, based on the current trajectory of his rehab.

Of course, the headline-grabbing news of the week in the Bronx — beyond finalizing their eight-year deal with Fried and introducing him at a press conference today — was the Yankees’ completion of a trade to bring Bellinger to the Bronx. Rumors of talks between the Yankees and Cubs were plentiful, particularly once Soto signed with the Mets. The two teams finally lined up on a deal yesterday afternoon.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted not long after the trade that the Yankees had informed Bellinger he’ll be utilized in center field. General manager Brian Cashman pushed back on that today following the Fried presser (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com), stating that there’s no firm decision on Bellinger’s defensive home. He could play any of center field, left field or first base for the Yankees next season, and that decision will be contingent on what the Yankees are able to accomplish throughout the remainder of the offseason. FOX Sports’ Deesha Thosar adds that manager Aaron Boone spoke to Bellinger last night, and Bellinger informed his new skipper he’s open to playing wherever needed.

That flexibility, plus the flexibility provided by Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s ability to play multiple spots, leaves Cashman a vast array of possibilities for the remainder of the offseason. The Yankees are reportedly intrigued by several free agent first basemen but could look to the outfield market and also have other areas of depth from which they could trade. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com suggests that catcher Jose Trevino, for instance, could find himself on the trade block in the weeks ahead.

There’s been some speculation that the Yankees could deal from their catching depth this winter, and they’ve already moved one of the five catchers they had on their 40-man roster, sending Carlos Narvaez to the Red Sox for a minor league pitcher and some international bonus pool space. With Austin Wells emerging as the starter behind the plate and backstops J.C. Escarra and Jesus Rodriguez joining Trevino on the 40-man roster, there’s still a good bit of depth. (That doesn’t even include catcher/first baseman Ben Rice, or catching prospect Rafael Flores, who’s not on the 40-man but just had a big season in Double-A.)

To be clear, there’s no indication that Trevino is expressly being shopped. But catching depth is always at a premium around the league, and this offseason’s market is particularly thin. The Yankees are a surefire luxury payor, and while Trevino’s projected $3.4MM salary (again, via Swartz) isn’t excessive, moving him could cut the Yankees’ spending by around $7MM after accounting for the CBT.

The 32-year-old Trevino hit just .215/.288/.354 in 234 plate appearances last year but graded out as a plus-plus defender. The 2022 Platinum Glove winner is a free agent after the season, and with a wealth of young catching options in Wells, Escarra, Rodriguez and Flores, it’d be understandable if the Yanks leveraged that depth by moving Trevino for some bullpen help or depth in another area of need.

Giants Notes: Payroll, Goldschmidt, Wade

By Darragh McDonald | December 13, 2024 at 4:14pm CDT

It was reported last month that the Giants were looking to scale back payroll relative to 2024 levels, but that may no longer be the case. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that the club initially had planned on focusing more on player development in 2025 while taking a step back in terms of building the major league roster, but now seems to have changed course.

That tracks with the club’s behavior in recent weeks. They just signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM deal and are reportedly involved on free agent right-hander Corbin Burnes, who is likely to get an even bigger deal than Adames. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, but basically every pitcher has been beating expectations this winter. Max Fried was predicted for $156MM over six years, notably below the prediction for Burnes, but got to $218MM over eight years. As such, it’s fair to expect Burnes to beat Fried’s guarantee by some margin.

If the Giants are ultimately successful in signing Burnes, it would put them pretty close to the competitive balance tax line. RosterResource projects their 2025 number at $208MM right now, which is $33MM below next year’s $241MM base threshold. The Giants crossed the CBT line in 2024 and the planned pay cut likely would have seen them stay below the line in 2025, but a Burnes deal would bridge most of that gap with still other moves likely to follow. In terms of pure dollars, they’re projected for $167MM next year, almost $40MM below their 2024 spending.

The pivot to a more aggressive winter bodes well for their chances in the upcoming season. Adames fills a clear area of need and Burnes would be a huge rotation upgrade if it comes together. In addition to the financial costs of those deals, there would be long-term consequences in terms of draft capabilities. The Giants gave up two picks in 2024, one each for signing Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, since each guy had rejected a qualifying offer. Since the Giants paid the tax in 2024, the penalties are higher this winter. Signing Adames means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two picks, their second- and fifth-highest choices in 2025. Like Adames, Burnes also rejected a qualifying offer, which would mean forfeiting another $1MM in pool space and another two picks.

Given that the club’s plan was initially going to involve player development, that’s a notable part of the pivot. However, it’s possible that the Giants simply want to make something happen now, more so than in the future. Their stunning 2021 campaign is their only winning season of the past eight years, so perhaps there’s an appetite to get over the hump sooner rather than later. New president of baseball operations Buster Posey spoke in his introductory press conference about the club getting back into the memory-making business, which has seemingly spurred the club towards shopping at or near the top of free agency.

Whether the Burnes deal can come together or not, the club will also have to consider other moves. In a separate column, Pavlovic notes that veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt “has a lot of fans in the organization.” Separately, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggests that Posey might be willing to sign veterans to short-term deals, floating Goldschmidt as a possibility alongside Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Goldschmidt, 37, isn’t too far removed from winning National League Most Valuable Player in 2022 but his performance has declined in the past two years. He slashed .317/.404/.578 for a 175 wRC+ in his MVP season but he fell in 2023 and dropped even further this year. His 2024 batting line finished at .245/.302/.414 for a 100 wRC+, indicating he was exactly league average. His 7.2% walk rate and 26.5% strikeout rate were both career worsts, outside of his 2011 debut.

Whether he can bounce back in 2025 or not is a matter for debate. His age and recent decline don’t bode especially well, but there is arguably some confidence to be found in his strong finish this year. He hit just .230/.291/.373 in the first half of 2024 for an 87 wRC+ but then .271/.319/.480 in the second half for a 120 wRC+.

The Giants don’t strictly have a need at first base, with LaMonte Wade Jr. currently projected as their primary option there. However, they don’t have a clear everyday designated hitter at the moment. Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto got the most DH appearances in 2024 but Soler is now and Angel and Conforto a Dodger. Wilmer Flores could be in the mix there but he was dreadful in 2024 while battling knee problems and it’s unclear how much the Giants expect from him in 2025.

With the current roster construction, using the DH for some outfield overflow might make sense. The club has Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski likely in three outfield spots but with Grant McCray, Jerar Encarnación, Luis Matos, Marco Luciano and others on the roster. Having Goldschmidt and Wade sharing the DH spot and first base would make it hard to find extra at-bats for that group, though perhaps the Giants are willing to live with that in order to take a shot on Goldschmidt for his veteran leadership. He also wouldn’t be able to command a lengthy deal on account of his age and recent performance. MLBTR predicted him for a one-year pact with a $15MM guarantee at the start of the offseason.

There’s also the possibility of signing Goldschmidt and then making Wade available in trades. It was reported last month that Wade and Yastrzemski were indeed available, as well as some other players, though it’s unclear if the club’s recent change in plans has altered the availability of such players.

Wade were surely draw interest from other clubs if the Giants wanted to move him. He doesn’t provide the pop that clubs usually look to get from a first baseman, but he gets on base and isn’t too expensive. Over the past two years, he has drawn a walk in 15% of his 920 plate appearances. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber were the only big leaguers with at least 900 plate appearances and better walk rates in that time. Wade only hit 25 home runs over those two seasons but his .258/.376/.401 batting line still translated to a strong 120 wRC+.

For his career, Wade has notable platoon splits, with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and just a 64 wRC+ against lefties. He was much better against southpaws in 2024, though in a tiny sample of just 43 plate appearances. There are limits in his profile but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $4.7MM salary in his final year of club control.

Padres Notes: Offseason Needs, Loáisiga, Payroll, Cease

By Leo Morgenstern | December 10, 2024 at 4:47pm CDT

After a successful 2024 campaign that saw the Padres return to the postseason despite cutting payroll and trading Juan Soto, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is doubtlessly looking to improve his team over the winter. To that end, he told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell that he’s looking to address holes in the corner outfield, the starting rotation, and behind the dish. None of that is especially surprising considering some of the players the Padres lost to free agency this winter, namely left fielder Jurickson Profar, starter Martín Pérez, and catcher Kyle Higashioka. Moreover, starter Joe Musgrove will miss the 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, leaving the rotation without much depth.

With that said, the Padres have not yet been linked to many free agents to fill those holes. They’re interested in starter Roki Sasaki (per ESPN), but at this point, so is just about everyone else. When it comes to catchers, they’re starting to run out of options, with Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Danny Jansen, and Gary Sánchez off the market and Carson Kelly nearing a deal with the Cubs. As for corner outfielders, the Padres haven’t been strongly connected to anyone yet; Preller told Cassavell he hasn’t closed the door on a reunion with Profar, but that’s pretty much it.

Similarly, the Padres have expressed some interest in bringing back Ha-Seong Kim, although the infield seems to be less of a priority. After all, the team already has an internal option to replace Kim at the keystone: Jake Cronenworth can play more often at second base and Luis Arraez can play more often at first.

Bolstering the bullpen isn’t at the top of Preller’s to-do list either, but ESPN’s Jorge Castillo recently included the Padres on a list of suitors for right-hander Jonathan Loáisiga. While the Padres lost Tanner Scott to free agency, they still have a pair of imposing back-end relievers in Robert Suarez and Jason Adam. Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon also enjoyed strong breakout seasons in 2024, while Yuki Matsui was solid in his first taste of MLB action. Even so, there’s no such thing as too much bullpen talent, and Loáisiga is the kind of high-upside arm it can’t hurt to check in on. Due to numerous arm injuries over the past three years (most recently a torn UCL), he’s unlikely to sign for multiple years or much money. However, he was dominant the last time he was healthy in 2021, tossing 70 2/3 innings with a 2.17 ERA. He flashed a 98 mph sinker and nasty sweeping curveball in a handful of outings earlier this year, and it’s possible he’ll be back from his internal brace procedure in time for Opening Day.

So, why might the Padres be particularly interested in a buy-low free agent like Loáisiga? Perhaps it’s the same reason they haven’t linked to many other free agents, even at areas of greater need. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that San Diego’s payroll will likely fall somewhere in between last year’s final tally of $169MM and the current RosterResource estimate of $210MM for 2025. In other words, Preller might need to get some cash off the books before can start spending.

One idea to help the Padres reduce payroll that’s recently been picking up steam is trading Dylan Cease. According to Acee, they have indeed discussed the idea with other teams at the Winter Meetings. It’s not clear how serious those discussions are; some of Acee’s sources suggest the Padres are actively shopping the right-hander, while others suggest they’re merely open to offers.

Needless to say, Cease isn’t a player most contending teams would consider trading. According to FanGraphs, he was worth 4.8 WAR in 2024 and 17.2 WAR over the past four seasons. That’s not the kind of production that’s easy to replace at any price, let alone his $13.7MM projected salary. That said, this wouldn’t be the first time Preller has traded a star player while remaining competitive. Perhaps he’s confident the Padres will land Sasaki. Alternatively, he could be planning to trade for Garrett Crochet; the Padres have been linked to the White Sox ace. Those might be the only two options for San Diego to replace a top-of-the-rotation pitcher like Cease at a lower salary.

Indeed, without Sasaki or Crochet, it’s hard to imagine how trading Cease wouldn’t set the Padres back. After all, Preller himself said that adding a starting pitcher was a priority this offseason. Beyond Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish, the Padres rotation is all question marks. Randy Vásquez struggled in his first season with San Diego, while Matt Waldron quickly slowed down after a hot start in 2024. Dealing Cease could help the Padres fill other holes on the roster, but without a frontline starter to take his place, such a move might just be one step forward and two steps back.

Garrett Crochet Rumors: Cubs, Padres, Yankees, Red Sox, Reds

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 7:28pm CDT

7:28pm: MLBNetwork’s Jon Morosi reported this evening that a Crochet deal coming together during the Winter Meetings this week is “increasingly possible.” What’s more, Morosi suggests that the Red Sox are “more willing” to listen on top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer than previously believed and could become a more significant factor in Crochet’s trade market if they make him available in trade talks with the White Sox.

4:23pm: Garrett Crochet’s status as the offseason’s top trade candidate means that there is plenty of buzz surrounding the White Sox southpaw as the Winter Meetings get underway. A crosstown trade could be a possibility, as Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Cubs “have had at least preliminary talks” with the Sox about Crochet’s availability.

The Cubs’ list of top prospects is heavy on position players, which could fit with White Sox GM Chris Getz’s stated aim of obtaining premium position-player talent in exchange for Crochet’s services. It is easy to imagine Getz asking for at least one of Matt Shaw or Owen Caissie as a headliner in a trade package, or perhaps even Pete Crow-Armstrong if the Sox wanted a player with some actual big league experience. Given the Cubs’ depth at both the MLB and minor league levels, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might feel comfortable in parting with a younger blue-chipper in order to land a controllable pitcher.

Crochet is projected to earn only $2.9MM in arbitration this season, and he is under one further year of team control in 2026. Even if Crochet’s production takes a dip from his 2024 numbers, he’d still be a bargain in comparison to the cost of the average starting pitcher. This might be the type of special circumstance that would make the Cubs want to keep adding to their rotation, even though the Wrigleyville starting five already seems set with Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, and new signing Matthew Boyd.

The White Sox are known to have a very high asking price on Crochet, and apparently had interest in at least one of Ethan Salas or Leodalis De Vries in trade talks with the Padres, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. San Diego has been linked to Crochet on the rumor mill since prior to the trade deadline, yet the Friars have seemingly drawn a line when it comes to moving either of the top two prospects in their farm system.

The Padres and Cubs are just two of the many clubs known to have had some level of interest in Crochet in the last six months, and given his low price, it’s probably safe to say just about every team in baseball has probably at least checked in with Getz about what it would take to land the left-hander. The Yankees refused to deal Spencer Jones to the White Sox for Crochet prior to the deadline, but MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (X link) writes that New York is still “believed to be in” on the Crochet sweepstakes.

Boston may be a different story, as Cotillo hears that the Red Sox are “just on the periphery of Garrett Crochet talks and are not aggressors at all.” This tracks with reporting from Cotillo’s MassLive colleague Sean McAdam a couple of weeks ago, as McAdam wrote that negotiations between the two Sox teams had seemingly quieted. On paper, the Red Sox would seemingly be an ideal fit for Crochet given Boston’s need for frontline pitching and their collection of elite position-player prospects (Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel), but obviously a match depends on what exactly Chicago would want back in return. For instance, there have been reports that Anthony and Campbell are the true untouchables within the “big four” Red Sox prospects, so talks might have cooled with the White Sox are insisting on one of those two.

There appear to be mixed signals on whether or not the Reds could be involved. Cotillo writes that “Cincinnati [is] seen as a real threat to land Crochet,” but Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer throws cold water on the possibility, saying that “the talks went nowhere” between the Reds and White Sox, “and there’s no reason to think they’ll re-engage at this point.” Wittenmyer notes that the two sides discussed Crochet before Cincinnati acquired Brady Singer from the Royals, so that deal could mark the end of any higher-level pitching moves the Reds could make.

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