Notes

Astros Pitching Notes: Garcia, Verlander, Murfee

By Mark Polishuk | August 3, 2024 at 10:45am CDT

This weekend was supposed to mark the start of Luis Garcia’s next minor league rehab assignment, but Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that Garcia is “feeling a little bit sore.” While Espada was quick to say that Garcia wasn’t being shut down, the team was going to take it easy with the righty-hander after he felt what Espada described as “some soreness in his elbow” following a game of catch on Thursday.

Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023, and his first attempt at a rehab assignment lasted two outings — an inning with the Astros’ rookie ball team in late June, and then 1 1/3 innings for Double-A Corpus Christi in early July. He was then held back from any more game action due to some physical discomfort and trouble bouncing back between pitching appearances. The Astros were slowly ramping him back up, and after Garcia’s live batting practice session last Tuesday seemed to go without a hitch, plans were made for another rehab assignment.

Instead, some questions now have to be asked about when exactly Garcia will be able to properly get back onto the mound in the wake of this latest setback. Though Garcia will require a pretty lengthy rehab stint when he is able to pitch, the Astros have said Garcia could potentially return as a reliever. This would require less build-up than rehabbing to work as a starting pitcher, so Garcia could make it back a bit quicker and pitch out of Houston’s bullpen later in the season or into a potential postseason run. Garcia would therefore be able to contribute to the 2024 team in some fashion, yet with still a decent length of time remaining in the regular season, the Astros will certainly first see if Garcia can indeed get healthy and ready enough to return to his customary starting role.

Garcia established himself as a solid member of the starting five when he posted a 3.60 ERA over 312 2/3 innings in 2021-22, helping the Astros to two AL pennants in those years and the World Series title in 2022. Given the usual timeframe for Tommy John rehab, his projected return in the second half of this season gained extra import considering how the Astros have been ravaged by pitching injuries.

Justin Verlander has twice been sidelined — first with some shoulder inflammation that delayed his season debut until April 19, and then a bout of neck stiffness that has kept him off the mound since June 9. The good news is that Verlander is inching towards a return, as Espada said the star righty will face live batters during a batting practice session on Sunday. Verlander is tentatively then planned to begin a rehab assignment, with Espada specifying that Verlander will need multiple starts to build up his arm to return to starting duty.

Penn Murfee is another pitcher getting ready to face live batters, as the reliever will be throwing a live BP session at the Astros’ Spring Training complex this weekend. Murfee told Kawahara and company that the plan is for him to begin his own rehab assignment after throwing three live BP sessions.

Debuting in the majors in 2022, Murfee made a quick impression by posting a 2.99 ERA in 69 1/3 relief innings for the Mariners. He followed up that great rookie year with a 1.29 ERA in his first 14 innings of the 2023 campaign before undergoing a UCL-related surgery in June 2023, and Seattle then opted to place him on waivers at the start of the offseason. This led to Murfee going to the Mets and then the Braves on a pair of waiver claims, a new contract with the Braves after Atlanta non-tendered him, and then another waiver claim to the Astros in late March. If Murfee’s rehab goes smoothly and he is able to recapture his old form, he presents Houston with an intriguing bullpen addition for the final stretch.

Latest On Twins’ Trade Endeavors

By Mark Polishuk | July 30, 2024 at 12:24am CDT

The Twins are known to be working with little to no financial flexibility as the deadline approaches, as ownership’s big-picture revenue concerns continue to limit how much new money the front office can add. RosterResource projects Minnesota’s payroll at roughly $127.8MM, as offseason cuts have already significant reduced spending from the team’s $158.8MM payroll from 2023.

Exchanging salaries might be the Twins’ most logical way of adding some help to their roster, and with this in mind, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes writes that “the Twins have listened to offers” from other teams about such controllable players as closer Jhoan Duran, and more obvious trade candidates like pending free agents Max Kepler or Manuel Margot.

Of course, listening to offers is a long way off from actively shopping players or having any particular inclination to move them, as Hayes notes that “the cost for Kepler and Duran is said to be extremely high.” It can be assumed that Margot’s price tag is significantly lower, which isn’t surprising for a backup outfielder hitting .243/.302/.341 over 235 plate appearances this season. Margot has roughly $1.3MM still owed on the Twins’ $4MM share of his overall $10MM salary for 2024, as the Dodgers are covering the other $6MM as per the terms of the February trade that brought Margot to the Twin Cities.

Kepler’s name has popped up in trade talks several times over the years, and he has about $3.33MM left on his $10MM salary for the 2024 season. Kepler is a trickier player for Minnesota to replace since he is the primary right fielder and a solid defender, though he hasn’t traditionally had much success against left-handed pitching. Even against righties, Kepler is hitting a modest .258/.317/.403 in 244 PA this season, so he doesn’t exactly offer a big splits advantage.

With this in mind, it seems perhaps a little odd that the Twins want an “extremely high” return for rental player like Kepler. However, the Twins likely aren’t keen to substantially diminish their outfield depth given how many injuries the team has already fought through this year, and moving Kepler would then present Minnesota with another challenge in finding a replacement.

Duran is a different story altogether as a trade candidate. For a team with a limited payroll, Duran is a particularly huge asset since he doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this winter, and he is under team control through the 2027 season. Trading the closer therefore wouldn’t provide any help to Minnesota’s financial concerns, unless perhaps the Twins attached a larger contract along with Duran as part of a trade package. That tactic, however, would lessen the value of one of the Twins’ top trade chips, in terms of what the team would receive in terms of an on-field return.

In another report earlier tonight, Hayes wrote that the Twins had some talks with the Dodgers about Duran, but wanted players who could help this season, rather than the Dodgers’ preferred offer of prospects. Trading a closer might be simpler for a team just looking to cut payroll, yet the Twins are trying to thread the needle by both limiting spending and remaining competitive, as the team is in possession of an AL wild card spot and they’re 5.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead.

NL West Notes: Walker, Duran, Dodgers, Padres, Kikuchi

By Mark Polishuk | July 29, 2024 at 10:49pm CDT

Christian Walker left tonight’s game with what the Diamondbacks described as left oblique tightness. It isn’t clear when the injury occurred, though Walker struck out swinging during a second-inning at-bat, and Kevin Newman then took over Walker’s spot at first base in the top of the fourth. More will be known about the severity of the injury once Walker undergoes tests, but any sort of oblique issue might hint at a trip to the injured list for the star first baseman.

Losing Walker for any stretch of time would deal a heavy blow to Arizona’s playoff hopes, given his all-around importance to the lineup. Walker is hitting .254/.338/.476 with 23 home runs over 461 plate appearances, and delivering his usual excellent glovework at first base. Beyond what an IL stay might do to the Diamondbacks’ chances in the pennant race, an extended absence also wouldn’t help Walker’s platform for a big free agent contract, as he is scheduled to hit the open market at season’s end. This sudden uncertainty over Walker’s status is an unwelcome wrinkle for the D’Backs in advance of tomorrow’s trade deadline, as the team was planning to focus on pitching rather than any significant position-player adds.

Angels Notes: Rengifo, Ward, Pillar, Garcia, Trout

By Mark Polishuk | July 29, 2024 at 9:48pm CDT

Reports earlier this month indicated that the Angels were planning to move only their impending free agents at the deadline, and were looking to retain players controlled through the 2025 season or beyond. The Halos have stuck to this plan to date by moving only Carlos Estevez to the Phillies, but it seems like the club is preparing to deal some longer-term assets, as rival executives tell MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand that both Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward are expected to be dealt. “The Angels are listening to offers on” the duo, Feinsand writes.

The Red Sox and Dodgers are both reportedly in on Rengifo, the Pirates have had talks about Ward, and the Royals have previously been linked to both players in trade speculation. With some interest percolating around the league, it stood to reason that the Angels might back down from whatever rentals-only stance they might’ve held earlier in the summer, if such a stance was even anything more than a negotiating tactic.

It is hard at this point to see the Angels returning to contention as early as next season, and therefore there seems to be little reason why the team wouldn’t be open to moving two of their better trade assets. Rengifo is under arbitration control through the 2025 season and Ward won’t be a free agent until after the 2026 season, so this extra control would only add to their trade value, rather than perhaps act as a reason why Los Angeles should try to keep them with so many other glaring needs on the roster.

In terms of the Halos’ rental players, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes (X link) that Kevin Pillar is getting “lots of interest” from rival teams. Playing in a part-time capacity since signing with the Halos in April, Pillar is hitting .287/.343/.481 over 199 plate appearances — this works out to a 130 wRC+, miles above the 86 wRC+ Pillar posted in his 11 previous Major League seasons.

It counts as going out on a high note for a player who is planning to retire at season’s end, and joining a contender would be a nice way to perhaps add a championship ring to Pillar’s resume. Even if some regression is probably inevitable given how Pillar is hitting so far above his career norms, the veteran can still provide outfield depth along with whatever he can do at the plate.

The Orioles are known to be looking for right-handed hitting outfielders, and Heyman writes in a separate X post that Pillar is one of the names on Baltimore’s list of possible targets. The Orioles added Cristian Pache as part of the Austin Hays trade with the Phillies, but the 2024 version of Pillar would bring a lot more pop than a defensive specialist like Pache.

The Estevez trade got the ball rolling on the Angels’ moves and also created a hole at the back of the bullpen. Manager Ron Washington told The Athletic’s Sam Blum (X link) and other reporters that Luis Garcia will close games unless Garcia is himself traded, and Ben Joyce would then be next in line for save situations. Garcia is another pending free agent and there is plenty of interest in his services, so since he’ll likely be in another uniform within a day’s time, thus opening the door for Joyce. A classic flame-throwing reliever, Joyce has garnered “closer of the future” buzz ever since he made his MLB debut last season, and he has a 2.11 ERA over 21 1/3 innings this year, albeit with a lot of subpar advanced metrics.

In non-trade news about the Angels’ biggest star, Washington told the Associated Press and other reporters that Mike Trout hadn’t yet restarted his running program after a setback with his surgically-repaired knee halted Trout’s minor league rehab assignment. Trout played two Triple-A innings last Tuesday before leaving the game, and an MRI taken on Friday was clean, with Trout telling MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and other media that the knee issue was related to some breaking scar tissue.

“It’s a huge relief for me. I just have to make sure it feels good and I’ll be back out there. Scar tissue breaking up is a weird feeling and I’d never experienced that,” Trout said.

Trout was hitting .220/.325/.541 with 10 homers over 126 PA when his knee problems arose at the end of April, and the three-time MVP hasn’t played since, apart from his brief Triple-A appearance last Tuesday. While neither Trout or Washington held much concern over this latest setback, there won’t be much comfort until Trout is back onto the field, given how multiple injuries have plagued the outfielder over the last few years.

Cardinals Notes: Edman, Brebbia, Matz, Kloffenstein

By Mark Polishuk | July 28, 2024 at 3:24pm CDT

While the Cardinals are looking to buy at the deadline as they chase an NL wild card slot, the team could also pursue some strategic selling, as the Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that the Dodgers have interest in Tommy Edman’s services. The versatile Edman could provide depth or even a starting role at multiple positions for an injury-riddled Dodgers team, and it be can argued that St. Louis already has enough position-player depth to make Edman expendable.

Of course, the chief obstacle to a deal is Edman’s own health status, as he has still yet to play in a big league game this season. Edman underwent wrist surgery last fall and the rehab process has taken considerably longer than expected — his recovery has been delayed by a couple of shutdowns due to recurring wrist soreness, as well as a sprained ankle. He has played in seven games during his rehab assignment with Double-A Springfield, but only as a DH, rather than any action in the field.

The Cards would certainly be selling low on a player who generated 5.4 fWAR as recently as 2022, between Edman’s strong glovework all over the diamond and an above-average (106 wRC+) performance at the plate. However, 2022 represented the high-water mark of Edman’s offensive production over a full season, as he had an 89 wRC+ in 2021 and a 92 wRC+ in 528 PA last season.

The two-year, $16.5MM extension Edman signed last January also puts a significant price tag on his services, with about $2.4MM still owed to him this season and then $9.5MM owed in 2025. The Cardinals would almost certainly have to eat a big chunk of that money to accommodate a trade, unless they perhaps swapped Edman to the Dodgers or another team for another unfavorable contract.

Such a creative move might in some way address the Cardinals’ other deadline needs, which Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat outlines as a right-handed hitting outfielder, starting pitching, and some bullpen depth. For this latter goal, Jones reports that the Cards have interest in White Sox reliever John Brebbia.

It would be a reunion between the Cardinals and the veteran reliever, as Brebbia broke into the big leagues with St. Louis in 2017 and quickly established himself as a workhorse. Brebbia posted a 3.14 ERA over 175 relief innings over the 2017-19 season, but a Tommy John surgery kept him sidelined for the entire 2020 season, and the Cards non-tendered him following that lost year. He re-established himself pitching for the Giants from 2021-23, and signed a one-year free agent deal with the White Sox this past winter that pays him $4MM in salary, with a $1.5MM buyout of a $6MM mutual option for 2025.

Brebbia’s work with the Sox has been a lot better than his 5.22 ERA might indicate, as a .352 BABIP has inflated the righty’s bottom-line numbers. In terms of secondary metrics, Brebbia has a strong 29.5% strikeout rate and a 5.8% walk rate, as well as above-average hard-contact numbers. With the White Sox in clear sell mode, Brebbia is a likely candidate to be on the move before the deadline, and St. Louis could among several terms intrigued by Brebbia’s Statcast line rather than his misleading ERA.

The Cardinals figure to land pitching even some internal arms are on the mend, as Steven Matz is tentatively slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment later this week (as per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Matz’s injury-plagued tenure with the Cards has now seen him miss almost three months due to back problems, with the southpaw posting a 6.18 ERA over 27 2/3 innings in April before being sidelined. Since Matz’s rehab work has already been shut down twice by recurring back pain, this next rehab assignment doesn’t represent a clear sign that the veteran is fully on the road to recovery, but he did log two simulated innings in a throwing session on Saturday.

In more concerning injury news, Adam Kloffenstein has discomfort in his right shoulder, manager Oliver Marmol told Jones and other reporters. Kloffenstein is currently on the minor league injured list as testing is being done to determine the nature and extent of the problem. Acquired in the Jordan Hicks trade with the Blue Jays last summer, Kloffenstein has a 4.74 ERA in 89 1/3 innings and 17 Triple-A starts this season, and he made his Major League debut in cup-of-coffee form with one inning in the Cards’ 6-5 win over the Giants on June 20.

Latest On Tigers’ Trade Candidates

By Mark Polishuk | July 28, 2024 at 12:59pm CDT

“The Tigers are listening to everything” in regards to trade possibilities, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes, as the team is at least open to moving both pending free agents and players under longer-term control. It remains unclear exactly how aggressive the Tigers might be in moving anyone who isn’t controlled beyond 2025, as while it costs the team nothing to test the market for offers, Detroit does broadly expect to finally get back to contention next season.

With a 52-54 record, the Tigers are still technically in contention this season, as they sit only 5.5 games back of the final AL wild card berth. A stirring 14-8 record in July has kept Detroit alive in the playoff picture, yet with the postseason still something of a longshot, this recent surge hasn’t been enough to detract from the Tigers’ plan to move some veterans.

Jack Flaherty and Mark Canha have been mentioned in trade rumors already, but Petzold notes that the Tigers are “shopping” catcher Carson Kelly. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed in a piece earlier this month, Kelly has rebounded after a couple of down years to assume close to an even split of Detroit’s catching duties alongside Jake Rogers. Kelly has is hitting .242/.327/.393 with seven home runs over 202 plate appearances, translating to an above-average 106 wRC+.

Despite the importance of the catching position, it is relatively rare to see prominent backstops dealt at the deadline, due in part to all of the added prep work that a catcher must handle behind the scenes. Since so much of the job is based around handling pitchers and calling games, it can quite difficult for a catcher to join a new team and immediately be tasked with learning the tendencies for an entire new set of hurlers.

This alone complicates Detroit’s efforts to move Kelly, not to mention the fact that a lot of other contenders are relatively set at the catching position. That said, you never know what teams might emerge with needs — the Red Sox weren’t seemingly in search of catching on paper, yet Boston acquired Danny Jansen from the Blue Jays yesterday. Kelly is also pretty inexpensive, as has about $1.22MM remaining on his $3.5MM salary for the 2024 season.

In terms of players with extra control, Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller can each be retained via club options for the 2025 season. (Chafin’s option is worth $6.5MM with a $500K buyout, while Miller’s option is for $4.25MM with a $250K buyout.) According to Petzold, the Tigers are leaning towards picking up both options for now, though their plans could change if another team makes a good enough offer for either pitcher by Tuesday’s deadline.

Chafin has more value as a left-handed reliever, plus his numbers are better than Miller’s this season. Chafin has a 3.25 ERA with an outstanding 29.9% strikeout rate over 36 innings, and while he is still prone to issuing free passes, the veteran’s 9.6% walk rate is still markedly improved over his 12.5% figure from 2023. Miller is something of the opposite, as he has a strong 5.4% walk rate but his other numbers are a lot rougher — a 4.66 ERA in 36 2/3 frames out of the Tigers’ bullpen.

Sticking with the relief corps, Petzold reports that the Tigers have gotten trade interest in both Jason Foley and Will Vest, but the club is unlikely to move either right-hander. Foley and Vest are both controlled through 2027 and won’t even reach their first rounds of salary arbitration until this coming offseason, so barring a very compelling offer, Detroit has no reason to consider moving relievers who aim to be part of the bullpen plans for years to come.

Foley in particular has performed well as Detroit’s closer this season, saving 15 of 18 chances and posting a 3.22 ERA in 36 1/3 innings. If there is a reason for the Tigers to think about selling high, it could be that Foley doesn’t fit the traditional model for a lights-out stopper. Foley is a grounder specialist with surprisingly low strikeout totals for a pitcher with a 96.9mph fastball, though his slider has been much more effective than his heater this season.

Vest has quietly posted strong numbers for two seasons in a row now, following up his 2.98 ERA in 48 1/3 innings in 2023 with a 3.15 ERA in 45 2/3 frames this year. Somewhat akin to Foley, Vest also doesn’t miss many bats, but he is very good at limiting hard contact. Only six percent of Vest’s fly balls have left the yard over the last two seasons, and his 2.9% barrel rate is in the 97th percentile of all pitchers in 2024.

Phillies Notes: Hays, Marsh, Green, Arozarena

By Mark Polishuk | July 27, 2024 at 2:51pm CDT

The Phillies and Orioles completed an intriguing trade Friday that saw Baltimore land Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache in exchange for Austin Hays, which represented something of a lengthy pursuit for Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. The executive told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber) that “I’ve actually tried to acquire him the last two trading deadlines, and [the Orioles] were asking for much more than we wanted to give.”

The O’s finally budged, perhaps due to both Dominguez addressing Baltimore’s bullpen needs, and Hays’ increasingly expendable nature within a crowded Orioles outfield. An ice-cold start to the season and then a four-week IL stint due to a calf strain led to Hays’ playing time being reduced, though he has hit quite well in a more limited capacity over the last two-plus months. Even with the first six weeks of the season essentially being a wash, Hays has gotten his offensive production back above league average, delivering a 102 wRC+ from a .255/.316/.395 slash line over 175 plate appearances.

It isn’t too far removed from the 108 wRC+ Hays posted over 1677 PA with Baltimore from 2021-23, and his recent hot streak indicates that Hays could certainly still match or surpass that number over the rest of the 2024 campaign. Hays’ numbers against right-handed pitching are far below his career norms, so if those stats in particular pick up, Hays will certainly put himself in line for more of a regular role in the Phillies’ lineup.

“We don’t think he’s just in a position where he has to be platooned by any means,” Dombrowski said about Hays, who for now seemingly will join with the left-handed hitting Brandon Marsh as part of a timeshare in left field. Marsh could also be moved to center field to split time with the righty-swinging Johan Rojas should Hays force his way into everyday duty in left field. As Lauber notes, Marsh’s own splits have cut into his playing time — Marsh has been crushing righties but struggling badly against lefties this season, thus necessitating the Phillies’ need for a right-handed bat for the outfield picture.

Addressing that need cost the Phils an experienced reliever in Dominguez, which was no small matter for a Philadelphia team that was already known to be looking for bullpen help prior to the trade. “We just felt that for us to get a right-handed hitter we had to give up something,” Dombrowski said, and the club will now target “somebody who can pitch innings late in a game that are important innings for us, like our other guys do.”

Carlos Estevez, Tanner Scott, Kyle Finnegan, and Michael Kopech are some of the more prominent relievers linked to Philadelphia’s trade pursuits in recent weeks, and Blue Jays right-hander Chad Green is also “one of the Phillies’ top targets,” in the words of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link). Green is generally considered to be available given how the struggling Jays will be selling to some extent at the deadline, though Toronto is reportedly focusing on selling pending free agents, whereas Green is under contract through the 2025 season.

As per the unusual multi-option terms of the deal Green signed in January 2023, he ended up earning $21MM over the 2024-25 seasons, once the Blue Jays exercised the two-year version of their club option last fall. This translates to $10.5MM in 2025 and roughly $3.5MM left in salary this season. This is no small matter to a Phillies team that is on pace to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the third straight season, and would ideally like to avoid the third penalty tier of $277MM. RosterResource has the Phils at roughly a $262.3MM tax number right now, and crossing the $277MM line would give the Phillies a 95% tax on any overages, plus their first pick in the 2025 draft would be dropped back by 10 spots.

The Jays could potentially eat more of Green’s salary if the Phillies were to offer a better prospect return, so there are ways for the Phils to work around the payroll issue (while leaving room for other deadline upgrades) if they decide Green is their guy on the trade market. The veteran righty has a 1.74 ERA over 31 innings for Toronto this season, though his 3.82 SIERA is perhaps a more accurate reflection of Green’s performance. Green has benefited greatly from a 100% strand rate and a .187 BABIP, and his 23.1% strikeout rate is a little below average, while his 7.7% walk rate is pretty respectable.

In other trade roads not taken, Lauber and Gelb both wrote that the Phillies talked with the Rays about Randy Arozarena before the outfielder was dealt to the Mariners on Thursday. Gelb noted that Tampa Bay wanted “a top prospect” in exchange for Arozarena, but the Phils weren’t willing to part with the unknown player.

Landing Arozarena would’ve certainly counted as more of a blockbuster move to address Philadelphia’s need for a right-handed hitting outfielder. While Dombrowski has made a habit of trading prospects for established stars during his storied front office career, it could be that the PBO didn’t want to move whatever particular minor leaguer the Rays wanted, or Dombrowski was wary in general about depleting from the Phillies’ somewhat limited farm system.

Padres Notes: Taillon, Catching, DeVries

By Mark Polishuk | July 27, 2024 at 8:26am CDT

Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon has reportedly drawn interest from several teams as the trade deadline approaches, and it appears as though the Padres can be added to that list. The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Ken Rosenthal, and Patrick Mooney write that the Friars “have Taillon on their radar,” as starting pitching remains a need in San Diego.

Joe Musgrove might be on the verge of starting a minor league rehab assignment this coming week, but he’ll need multiple ramp-up starts since he hasn’t pitched since May 26. Yu Darvish’s last MLB game was on May 29 and his last minor league rehab game was on June 19, and his return date remains uncertain given how the veteran is still on the Padres’ restricted list dealing with a personal family issue.

San Diego’s rotation has still posted solid numbers even without these two frontline pitchers, with the trio of Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Matt Waldron leading the way. Bolstering that group with a veteran like Taillon, however, would allow the Padres to bump the struggling Adam Mazur out of the starting mix. Should the Padres get Musgrove, Darvish, and a new addition joining up with Cease, King, and Waldron, they could perhaps adopt a six-man rotation to keep everyone fresh for the playoff drive, or this semi-surplus could resolve itself should other injuries emerge.

Taillon is far more than just a rental player, as he isn’t yet halfway through the four-year, $68MM contract he signed with Chicago during the 2022-23 offseason. Taillon receives $18MM in each season of the deal, so he has roughly $43MM remaining in owed salary — a number that won’t appeal to a Padres club that is trying to reset its Competitive Balance Tax status. After paying the tax in each of the previous three seasons, staying under the CBT line was a known goal for the Padres this season, and the team is projected (as per RosterResource) for a current tax number of roughly $224.8MM.

While this gives San Diego some wiggle room under the $237MM tax threshold, acquiring Taillon would alone absorb the rest of that CBT space, to say nothing or any other additions the Padres might might before the deadline. The Padres could look to sweeten the prospect return in order to get the Cubs to cover a larger chunk of Taillon’s remaining salary, or perhaps some kind of larger multi-player deal could be arranged involving a notable contract heading from San Diego to Chicago to help offset the Taillon contract. A.J. Preller and Jed Hoyer are no strangers to creative trades, and it is perhaps worth noting that the two clubs have been linked up on multiple trades over the last eight years — most notably the blockbuster that sent Darvish to San Diego during the 2020-21 offseason.

Speculatively speaking, it might be more likely that the Padres view Taillon as something of a backup plan, as one would imagine the Friars would first explore less-expensive options before considering adding another long-term pitching contract into the organization. A possible trade might also be a moot point if Taillon happens to have San Diego as one of the 10 teams on his no-trade list, as his contract contains some partial protection against a deal.

Winners of their last six games, the streaking Padres have moved into a wild card position, and are only percentage points behind the Mets for the top NL wild card spot. Since San Diego is only 6.5 games behind the Dodgers, the NL West title isn’t yet out of the question, but in any regard, the Padres are heating up at just the right time. Preller figures to be aggressive in buying at the deadline to fully cement his team as a contender after missing the playoffs in 2023, even if upgrading while staying under the CBT line presents an interesting secondary challenge.

Beyond pitching, the Padres might also need help behind the plate, as the New York’s Post Jon Heyman writes that catching could be a target area. Luis Campusano and Kyle Higashioka have handled the catching duties this season, with Campusano hitting .237/.280/.375 with six home runs over 239 plate appearances and Higashioka showing unexpected pop in hitting .226/.269/.540 with 12 homers in 145 PA.

That translates to a 127 wRC+ for Higashioka and an 89 wRC+ for Campusano, who has also posted subpar defensive metrics. Former top prospect Campusano was seemingly starting to break out in 2023, but this season’s tough results could at least result in the loss of more playing time, if the Padres opt for the hotter hand in Higashioka. Adding a new catcher would shake things up entirely, and Campusano could potentially see himself sent to Triple-A in that scenario since he still has a minor league option remaining.

Since Ethan Salas is one of baseball’s top prospects, the Padres already have a “catcher of the future” in the wings for a couple of seasons down the road, giving them some leverage to eventually move on from Campusano if he can’t get back on track. Of course, there is danger in shuffling the catching position at midseason, and some teams shy away from deadline catching trades since it can be difficult on a catcher to join a new team and learn a new pitching staff’s tendencies on the fly.

Speaking of prospects, it remains to be seen how willing the Padres are to trade significantly from a minor league pipeline that has already been heavily mined for trades in recent years. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin opines that shortstop prospect Leodalis De Vries might not be entirely untouchable in trade talks but is at least close to such status, as “the Padres will not consider moving him for anything less than controllable, star-level talent.”

The 17-year-old De Vries was an international signing just this past January, inked to a hefty $4.2MM bonus. De Vries has already started to deliver on his potential by hitting .242/.362/.450 with nine homers and 11 steals (in 12 attempts) over his first 276 professional plate appearances, all at the A-level. Xander Bogaerts told Lin that he was very impressed by De Vries’ talent and maturity when the two were briefly teammates during Bogaerts’ minor league rehab assignment this season, further enhancing De Vries’ status as a possible future cornerstone in the Padres’ lineup. It is fair to assume plenty of other teams have taken notice and asked about De Vries in trade talks, giving Preller another big chip to possibly consider dangling for the right return by July 30.

Dodgers Notes: Yamamoto, Rojas, Graterol, Grove

By Nick Deeds | July 21, 2024 at 10:21pm CDT

In his first public comments to reporters since going on the injured list with a rotator cuff strain, right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto told reporters (including ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez) yesterday that he’s been playing catch as he works his way back toward the mound. He described pitching again this year as his “goal,” noting that he was trying to return as soon as possible. Though Yamamoto did not specify a specific timetable for his return, Gonzalez noted that the Dodgers are “hoping” their star rookie will be back on the mound for them in late August or early September.

At the time of Yamamoto’s injury, manager Dave Roberts suggested that it wasn’t expected to end his season, so it’s not necessarily a surprise that the 25-year-old hurler still hopes to pitch this year. Even so, any source of optimism regarding Yamamoto’s status is surely a welcome one for fans in L.A. given the number of rotation injuries they’ve suffered in recent weeks. Entering the All-Star break, the club was relying on a patchwork rotation of veteran southpaw James Paxton and rookies Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, and Justin Wrobleski. Although both Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw are expected to join the mix later this week, providing the club with a solid front four alongside Stone and Paxton, questions will remain about the club’s lacking rotation depth until either Yamamoto or Walker Buehler returns from the injured list, barring a trade in the days leading up to the deadline.

Even setting aside the Dodgers’ current rotation needs, getting Yamamoto back late in the season figures to provide a huge boost to the club as they look ahead towards the postseason. After all, the $325MM righty was generally regarded as the best pitcher available this winter despite his lack of MLB experience, and in 14 starts with the Dodgers prior to hitting the shelf he flashed that potential. In his 76 innings of work this year, Yamamoto sports an excellent 2.92 ERA (137 ERA+) with an even better 2.68 FIP thanks to a fantastic 27.9% strikeout rate against a measly 5.6% walk rate.

While the club received some positive news about Yamamoto this weekend, they also were dealt something of an injury scare today when veteran shortstop Miguel Rojas exited today’s game due to a bout of tightness in his right forearm. Fortunately, Rojas told reporters following the game (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) that he believes the injury, which he suffered over the All-Star break while doing hitting drills, isn’t a particularly serious one. Roberts echoed that sentiment, noting to reporters (including Ardaya) that the club does not currently plan to send Rojas for an MRI, although he won’t play tomorrow and could ultimately be down for a few days due to the issue.

The loss of Rojas would’ve been a brutal blow for the Dodgers, a somewhat surprisingly reality considering his disappointing 2023 campaign. In 206 trips to the plate for the club this year, Rojas has slashed a respectable .272/.317/.408 that registers as 6% better than league average by wRC+. He’s combined that solid work at the plate with strong defense, initially at second base before sliding over to shortstop to take over for Mookie Betts after he went down with a fractured hand last month. Kiké Hernández took over for Rojas at shortstop after he exited tonight and figures to continuing getting reps at the position in Rojas’s absence, perhaps alongside Gavin Lux.

More positive injury news for Dodgers fans comes out of Triple-A Oklahoma City, where (as noted by OKC Broadcaster Alex Freedman) right-handers Brusdar Graterol and Michael Grove have both been assigned to begin rehab assignments this evening. Each right-hander struck out one while pitching a single inning of work tonight, with Grove working around a walk to produce a scoreless frame while Graterol allowed a hit and an unearned run in his inning of work. That both righties have reached the highest level of the minors in their rehab process is an exciting development for the Dodgers, as it suggests both will soon be available to contribute to a bullpen that has scuffled badly in recent days with a 5.51 ERA and 5.23 FIP since the calendar flipped to July.

Graterol hasn’t appeared in a big league game this year due to shoulder inflammation but has been one of the club’s most trusted relievers in recent years with a sterling 2.08 ERA and a strong 3.00 FIP in 117 innings of work since the start of the 2022 campaign, Grove, meanwhile, pitched to mixed results earlier this year before going down with a lat strain. The righty’s 5.06 ERA left much to be desired, but some of that lackluster run prevention seems to be due to unfortunate sequencing as demonstrated by his unusually low 62.5% strand rate and strong peripherals, including a 3.16 FIP, a strong 28.7% strikeout rate, and a fantastic 2.94 SIERA. Both hurlers should be welcome additions to the club’s bullpen when ready to return, possible sometime before the end of the month if their respective rehabs continue to go well.

Nationals Notes: Thomas, Finnegan, Cavalli

By Nick Deeds | July 20, 2024 at 10:39pm CDT

Nationals GM Mike Rizzo spoke to reporters, including Bobby Blanco of MASN, yesterday for the first time since the club shipped right-hander Hunter Harvey to the Royals in exchange for third base prospect Cayden Wallace and the 39th selection in the 2024 draft. Rizzo was effusive in his praise of Harvey, who he described as an “organizational success story,” but noted that he felt that the trade was “important for us to do…for the future of the franchise.”

The topic of the Harvey deal, which occurred in spite of the right-hander being under team control for the 2025 season, led naturally to questions regarding the status of outfielder Lane Thomas and closer Kyle Finnegan, both of whom are also under control for one season after 2024. When asked the availability of the pair, Rizzo confirmed that both are available, though he emphasized that the extra year of control means he isn’t necessarily in a rush to trade either player. When discussing Thomas, Rizzo said that because the club has him under control beyond the 2024 campaign, “we’re going to do a deal that we’re comfortable with. And if we don’t, we won’t do a deal.” He went on to say that he viewed Finnegan “The same way, exactly” and that the club was “not going to get rid of [Finnegan] easy.”

While it’s not entirely clear what the Nationals’ current asking price is for either Thomas or Finnegan, it’s hardly a surprise that the club’s GM is indicating that he won’t be dealing either player unless his price is met. Thomas, 29 next month, has been a steady regular for the Nationals throughout their rebuild with a .256/.317/.438 slash line (106 wRC+) since first joining the club partway through the 2021 season. He enjoyed something of a breakout season last year, slugging 28 home runs while swiping 20 bases and hitting a solid .268/.315/.468 in 156 games for the Nats. Thomas hasn’t hit for quite as much power in 2024 but has been an even more prolific base stealer, swiping 24 bags in just 306 trips to the plate so far this year. In a market without many quality hitters who are obviously available, it’s easy to imagine Thomas getting interest from clubs looking for help in the outfield such as the Mariners, Dodgers, or Phillies.

As for Finnegan, the 32-year-old is in the midst of a career year in his fourth season as the Nationals’ closer. In 40 2/3 innings of work this year, the righty has already racked up 26 saves while pitching to a sterling 2.43 ERA and striking out a solid 25.8% of batters faced. Home runs have been an issue for Finnegan in his career as he’s allowed 15.7% of his fly balls to leave the yard, including 16.7% this year. That’s left him with a somewhat pedestrian 4.05 FIP, but his lengthy track record as a quality high-leverage relief arm with Washington (where he’s posted a career 3.37 ERA in 267 1/3 innings of work) should nonetheless make him among the most attractive relief arms available for teams in need for help in the late innings.

In other Nationals news, manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASN) that longtime top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli has been dealing with a bout of “dead arm” while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery he underwent in early 2023. That issue was compounded further by Cavalli catching the flu, and that led the Nationals to restart the right-hander’s throwing program. The right-hander last appeared in a minor league rehab game on June 21 and has only just begun to ramp back up, though Martinez suggested that the club still expects him to pitch this year. Cavalli has just one big league start under his belt but looked good at the Triple-A level during his last full season back in 2022, when he posted a 3.71 ERA in 20 starts while striking out 25.9% of batters faced.

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