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NL Central Notes: Davis, India, Brewers

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Former first-overall pick Henry Davis will return to his natural position behind the dish in 2024, says Pirates manager Derek Shelton (as relayed by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Davis began his professional career as a backstop but transitioned into an outfield role this past year. Throughout his first few months of big league action, he started 49 games in right field and played just two innings at catcher.

Davis has never been the strongest defender, and he lost out on playing time in 2023 to defensive wizard Austin Hedges, fellow young backstop Endy Rodríguez, and breakout backup catcher Jason Delay. All three provided Pittsburgh with positive defensive value behind the plate, per FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, and with so many capable catchers on the roster, it’s not hard to see why the Pirates were hesitant to drop Davis into the mix. Moreover, Shelton also mentioned that a right hand strain in mid-August prevented the 24-year-old from getting a chance to catch at the end of the year.

However, Davis will be more valuable and productive for the Pirates long-term if he can stick at catcher; if he reaches his offensive upside, he could be one of the best-hitting backstops in the game. For precisely that reason, catching will be the “focal point” for Davis in 2024, per Shelton. He could still see time at DH or in right field, but his manager is planning to give him a legitimate opportunity to develop his catching skills at the big league level.

In other news from around the NL Central…

  • After signing top prospect Jackson Chourio to a record-breaking contract extension, the Brewers are listening to trade offers for the rest of their young outfielders, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. While Heyman doesn’t go into much detail about any potential trade offers on the table, he names Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Tyrone Taylor and Blake Perkins as the cost-controlled outfielders Milwaukee could be willing to sell. With Christian Yelich a lock in left field and Chourio the favorite to start in center, the Brewers have a bevy of talented outfielders and only one more spot to fill in the starting lineup. Given the team’s need for an impact bat and starting pitching depth, the Brewers could trade from an area of strength to address those concerns.
  • The Reds are not planning to trade second baseman Jonathan India this winter, according to president of baseball operations Nick Krall (per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). However, they could give him a chance to play a new position as the team attempts to break up a logjam in the infield. Specifically, Krall suggests that India could “maybe” play some first base in 2024. The 2021 NL Rookie of the Year has not played a defensive position aside from second base since the 2019 Arizona Fall League season, and he has never played first in his professional career. However, with Elly De La Cruz at shortstop, Noelvi Marte at third base, and Matt McLain looking like a good fit at second – not to mention Spencer Steer, who has played all four infield positions in his pro career – the Reds will need to get creative to fit India into the lineup. Cincinnati has no shortage of options at first base either, including Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Tyler Stephenson, but the more flexible India can be, the better his chances of earning regular playing time.

Nationals Notes: García, Outfield, Meneses, Robles

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Nationals manager Dave Martinez spoke to members of the media at the Winter Meetings today, with Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and Andrew Golden of The Washington Post each relaying some of the details. Notably, he said that Luis García isn’t guaranteed the second base job and that the club is looking for some left-handed power in the outfield. He also provided health updates on Victor Robles and Joey Meneses.

García, 24 in May, was a top 100 prospect on his way up to the majors but hasn’t been able to firmly establish himself at the big league level. The rebuilding Nats gave him a chance to take over the keystone last year but he was eventually optioned to the minors in August after hitting just .260/.294/.363 for a wRC+ of 74. He was recalled in September and finished strong with a line of .304/.360/.507 from that point, but in a small sample of just 75 plate appearances.

Unsurprisingly, that brief flash of better results isn’t enough to sway the club’s decision makers. His 1,245 career plate appearances have amounted to a tepid line of .265/.295/.395 and wRC+ of 85. He’s also received poor marks for his glovework at second, with career tallies of -5 Defensive Runs Saved, -16 Outs Above Average and a grade of -7.8 from Ultimate Zone Rating.

The Nats still have some faith in him, as he is still on the roster after the non-tender deadline, but it might be a make-or-break year for him. He qualified for arbitration this winter as a Super Two player and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $2.4MM. The fact that he was tendered a contract suggests the Nats are willing to give him another shot at that price point, but he is going to be out of options next year. If he continues to struggle, he could get bumped down into a reserve role or perhaps lose his roster spot entirely. The Nats also have infielders Jeter Downs and Ildemaro Vargas on the roster or could perhaps find external additions if they decide to move on from García at some point.

Turning to the outfield, the desire to find a lefty bat in quite sensible as the current mix leans heavily to the right side. Each of Lane Thomas, Stone Garrett, Alex Call, Meneses, Robles and Jacob Young are righties. The club signed Corey Dickerson to try to balance things out last year but that didn’t go according to plan. He struggled through the first few months of the season and was released after the club couldn’t flip him at the deadline. The club also has James Wood, one of the top prospects in the league. He hits from the left side but is just 21 years and has yet to reach Triple-A. Even if he does make it the majors in 2024, having him and a veteran addition in the same lineup would hardly be a problem.

How they approach the situation this time around will obviously depend on how much they are willing to spend. Cody Bellinger is the top lefty-hitting outfielder but it would be a shock if a rebuilding club like the Nats outbid the field for his services. Another veteran on a short-term deal similar to the Dickerson signing is probably a safer bet, though the club will obviously be hoping for better results. Jung Hoo Lee has now been posted for MLB clubs but he seems to be quite popular and will require a significant multi-year deal plus a posting fee. Some other lefty-swinging outfielders in free agency include Kevin Kiermaier, Joc Pederson and Michael Brantley.

The trade market is headlined by old friend Juan Soto, but he is widely considered a rental since he already turned down a massive extension from the Nats and is set for free agency after 2024. With the state of Washington’s roster, they don’t make sense for a reunion. It would be a similar situation for someone like Alex Verdugo, who is also a year from the open market. The Cardinals would likely be open to a trade of someone like Dylan Carlson, Alec Burleson or Brendan Donovan.

As for Meneses, the club will be looking for a bounceback from him next year. He debuted with a bang in 2022, hitting 13 home runs in the final 56 games of the season. But his first full season in the bigs resulted in just 13 more homers over 154 contests, though Martinez relayed today that Meneses was battling a knee issue during the season. It’s unknown how severe this issue was or when it arose, but it is perhaps the reason for a 2mph drop in his average exit velocity relative to 2022. If getting back to health helps him reverse course, that would provide the club with a nice lineup boost regardless of external additions. In a separate tweet from Golden, Martinez says Meneses is doing agility work now and looking good, hoping to play first base and the outfield next year.

As for Robles, the news is less positive. He missed the second half of 2023 due to back spasms and Martinez relayed that Robles hasn’t played winter ball this offseason since he hasn’t yet proven himself healthy. He still has a couple of months before Spring Training gets going but it’s notable that the issue appears to be lingering. He is going into his final arbitration season before he’s set to become a free agent. Like García, he was once a top prospect that has thus far struggled to firmly establish himself in the big leagues. He currently has a career batting line of .238/.312/.360 in 1,801 plate appearances, translating to a wRC+ of 81.

Trade Notes: Cease, Glasnow, Braves

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The free agent market for pitchers has been much more active than for position players so far this winter. Seven of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed new deals, and six have been pitchers: Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo López, Nick Martinez, and Luis Severino. Moreover, 11 different pitchers have already signed for $10MM or more; no position player has crossed the eight-figure threshold.

Still, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto unlikely to sign during the Winter Meetings, it’s possible the market for starting pitching could slow down, as suitors wait for Yamamoto to make his decision and other frontline starters (namely Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery) wait for Yamamoto to set the going rate. With that in mind, perhaps the various starting pitchers on the trade block will draw even more attention during the next four days.

Indeed, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the market for 2022 Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease is “robust,” noting that the Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles – among other teams – are involved in trade talks with the White Sox. Further clubs that have been linked to Cease in recent days include the Mets and Cardinals.

Last week, Morosi reported that discussions around Cease had “intensified” and suggested a deal before the Winter Meetings was “increasingly possible.” However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic threw cold water on that rumor, reporting that White Sox general manager Chris Getz would most likely wait to trade Cease until more of the top free agent starters were off the board. While no further frontline starters have signed in the last few days, Morosi’s report about the robust market for Cease at the Winter Meetings is enough to rekindle speculation about a potential trade in the coming days. After all, if the White Sox have their eye on any particular trade chips, they’d be smart to strike before those chips are spent on Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber instead.

Some more trade-related news from around baseball…

  • Speaking of Glasnow, the Rays starter is generating a great deal of interest, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. While it shouldn’t come as any surprise that plenty of teams would love the right-hander in their rotation – he had a 3.53 ERA and 3.08 SIERA in 21 starts last season – it is noteworthy that he’s drawing so much interest so soon. His $25MM salary for the 2024 season is much more than Cease or Bieber will earn in arbitration, and there are plenty of free agent pitchers available who will only cost money, rather than money and prospects. Evidently, however, his talent is enough to outweigh his price tag.
  • Speaking on a Zoom call with members of the media, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos emphasized that the team is not planning to trade any of its young players signed to long-term extensions (as relayed by Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). While Anthopoulos qualified his statement with the caveat of “special circumstances,” the executive stressed with “absolute, fierce confidence” that he is “extremely unlikely” to trade anyone from his cost-controlled young core. That group includes Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Spencer Strider, and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., all of whom are under team control through at least the 2027 season.

East Notes: Red Sox, Mets, Taylor, Arozarena

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The Red Sox are known to be interested in adding to the front of their rotation this winter, though Alex Speier of the Boston Globe suggests that desire could come with a major caveat. Speier relays that the club prefers to avoid signing a player attached to a Qualifying Offer. President of baseball operations Craig Breslow neither confirmed nor denied that preference when asked about it by reporters, acknowledging that while there are instances where a player being attached to draft pick compensation “shouldn’t be an impediment or deterrent,” there are also other situations where a QO could be an obstacle.

Of course, such a preference wouldn’t completely shut the door on a top-of-the-market arm for the Red Sox. Left-hander Jordan Montgomery isn’t attached to draft pick compensation after being dealt from the Cardinals to the Rangers midseason, while posted NPB stars Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga are both free of a qualifying offer as well. With both Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola already having signed long-term deals this offseason, a preference to avoid signing qualified free agents for their rotation would really only take Boston out of the running for left-hander Blake Snell, who rejected a QO from the Padres earlier this offseason. While the Red Sox have also reportedly been connected to two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani this offseason, previous reporting indicates that the club is no longer pursuing the offseason’s top free agent.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • On the heels of a report earlier today that the Mariners are among the teams interested in Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes this offseason, Jon Morosi of MLB Network indicates that outfielder Randy Arozarena is also believed to have come up in discussions between the two clubs. There’s no indication that a deal between the sides is particularly close, as is the case with Paredes. That said, it’s noteworthy that the sides have discussed a deal around Arozarena, who Morosi described as “available” in trade. Earlier this week, reporting indicated that while teams have inquired after Arozarena, the Rays weren’t shopping the outfielder. Arozarena, 28, would be a particularly good fit for a Mariners club that lacks a surefire starting outfielder to pair with Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic. The 28-year-old slashed a strong .254/.364/.425 with 23 home runs and 22 stolen bases for the Rays this year en route to his first career All Star appearance.
  • The Mets appear focused on improving their run prevention as they enter the winter meetings, according to Will Sammon of The Athletic. Sammon notes that in addition to pitching additions, the club is hoping to improve their outfield defense this winter. KBO star Jung Hoo Lee is one player the club has interest in who could do just that, and Sammon suggests that free agent center fielder Michael A. Taylor could be another fit, though the 32-year-old is garnering plenty of interest around the league, per Sammon. Taylor had the strongest offensive season of his career since 2017 with the Twins in 2023, slashing .220/.278/.442 (96 wRC+) while clubbing a career-best 21 home runs in just 388 trips to the plate this year. Sammon goes on to suggest that adding a player who could contribute in center field is the easiest way for the club to improve its defense, as it would allow Brandon Nimmo to slide over to left field more often.

West Notes: Giants, Yamamoto, Angels, Leiter

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The Giants have long been expected to be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams after missing out on megadeals for stars Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last offseason. While the club was still active on last year’s free agent market, deals for lower-profile players like Taylor Rogers, Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger didn’t save San Francisco from a 79-83 campaign that ended with a fourth place finish in the NL West this year. As president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his front office looks to turn things around ahead of the 2024 season, the club has been connected to plenty of top players this offseason, ranging from star outfielders Cody Bellinger and Juan Soto to reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell to even two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.

One such star the Giants are known to have interest in is NPB right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who Zaidi himself noted the club has scouted extensively in the run-up to his posting late last month. Today, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle provided an update on the club’s interest in Yamamoto, who ranked as the #3 free agent in this year’s edition of MLBTR’s annual top 50 free agents list. Per Slusser, other teams interested in Yamamoto believe that the Giants “have an edge” in the sweepstakes for his services. Yamamoto figures to be among the most sought-after free agents this winter, with reports indicating that nearly half the league has interest in the 25-year-old righty. The Mets and Yankees, in particular, have been connected to Yamamoto heavily to this point in the offseason.

Even if San Francisco does have a leg up in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, a signing would surely require a major financial outlay. The righty is widely expected to secure the largest deal of any starting pitcher on the market this winter besides Ohtani; MLBTR has projected him for a nine-year, $225MM deal that would only be surpassed by the guarantees secured by Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg among free agent starters. That shouldn’t be a problem for San Francisco, which reportedly offered Judge a deal in the $360MM range last offseason before 2022’s AL MVP ultimately returned to the Yankees.

More from MLB’s West divisions…

  • The Angels have made significant headway in assembling their 2024 coaching staff under new manager Ron Washington in recent weeks, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests the club previously offered both former Pirates and Rockies manager Clint Hurdle as well as 21-year MLB veteran LaTroy Hawkins roles on Washington’s staff; Hurdle was offered a job as Washington’s bench coach while Hawkins was offered the bullpen coach role. Nightengale goes on to note both men are expected to retain their current roles as special assistants to the front offices in Colorado and Minnesota, respectively. That’s hardly a surprise, as the club has reportedly hired Steve Karsay as the new bullpen coach in Anaheim while bench coach Ray Montgomery will remain in that role for a third season in 2024.
  • The Rangers were open to moving right-handed prospect Jack Leiter at the trade deadline this summer in the right deal for pitching, according to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. The second-overall pick of the 2021 draft was initially expected to be a fast-rising arm who could impact the big league club shortly after being drafted, but the righty has struggled to this point in his professional career. While Grant notes that Leiter made some strides last season, he’s not yet ready to contribute in the majors and could be part of the return for a front-of-the-rotation arm, should Texas look to the trade market in their search for rotation upgrades this winter. While Leiter has a career 5.37 ERA across two minor league seasons, the 23-year-old ended the 2023 campaign on a relative high note with a 3.31 ERA and a 39.7% strikeout rate in his final four starts at the Double-A level.

NL Notes: Cease, Braves, Nationals, Hampson, D’Backs

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The Braves are known to have trade interest in Dylan Cease, and given the team’s penchant for signing players to long-term extensions, locking up a Georgia native like Cease would seem like a logical next step if a deal can be worked out to obtain the righty from the White Sox.  However, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal points out a possible obstacle — Cease is represented by Scott Boras, who traditionally advises his clients to test free agency rather than sign long-term extensions.

Enough high-profile Boras clients have signed extensions that this isn’t at all a hard-and-fast rule, since as Rosenthal notes, Boras will ultimately operate according to his client’s demands.  But it is perhaps noteworthy for this particular scenario, since Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos rarely acquires Boras Corporations clients, even though both Anthopoulos and Boras have denied any lack of communication or lack of connection between the two sides.  Trading for and extending Cease would be a way of putting this narrative to bed, though it remains to be seen if Atlanta will instead opt for another frontline pitcher besides Cease as the Braves continue to look for rotation help.

More from the National League…

  • Not much has changed in the Lerner family’s attempts to sell the Nationals, as the search is now approaching two full years since news first broke of the Lerners’ explorations about a sale.  The Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes provides something of an update on the situation, though Ted Leonsis remains the top suitor but still seems unwilling to meet the Lerners’ desired price of around $2.4 billion.  Leonsis’ last offer topped the $2 billion mark, but the Lerners don’t appear in any hurry to make a sale unless Leonsis or another bidder ups the ante.  The seemingly neverending dispute with the Orioles about MASN broadcasting revenues also still remains a sticking point in any ownership discussions.  In terms of how this translates to the on-field product, Janes notes that the Nationals’ low payroll has more to do with the team’s rebuild strategy than it does a concerted effort to cut costs in advance of a potential sale.
  • The Diamondbacks had some interest in Garrett Hampson before the utilityman signed with the Royals earlier this week, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.  The versatile Hampton would’ve been a backup at several positions off the bench, and in particularly been a right-handed hitting complement to Alek Thomas or Geraldo Perdomo at center field or shortstop, respectively.  Right-handed hitting is a priority for the D’Backs in general, and Piecoro suggests that J.D. Martinez might be a candidate for a return to Arizona, based off GM Mike Hazen’s recent comments about how the Diamondbacks could be open to a DH-centric player who swings from the right side.  Arizona has already landed one notable right-handed bat this offseason in acquiring Eugenio Suarez from the Mariners.
  • Sticking with the National League champs, the Diamondbacks named Shaun Larkin as their new director of player development earlier this week.  Larkin has spent the last three seasons as the Dodgers’ field coordinator as part of an eight-year tenure in L.A., and he previously had a long history as a minor league player, coach, and manager in Cleveland’s farm system.  Larkin’s hiring is the latest move in a D’Backs offseason that has seen quite a bit of turnover in the front office and coaching ranks, though as Hazen told Piecoro, “we 100 percent expected it.  This is what happens when you have a successful season….Bringing some outside perspectives into the organization in terms of what’s going on in scouting and player development around the game, I think is important.”

NL Central Notes: Chourio, Pirates, De La Cruz, Cubs, Glasnow

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Jackson Chourio’s impending extension with the Brewers is expected to be made official within the next few days, and the eight-year, $82MM pact will give the 19-year-old Chourio the largest contract ever given to a (non-NPB) player prior to his big league debut.  “It’s happened very quick — way quicker than I thought,” Chourio told reporter Andrew Wagner (X link) while the outfielder and agent Cesar Suarez attended a Milwaukee Bucks game yesterday, though Chourio and Suarez both stopped short of confirming an agreement was in place.

“Obviously I’m very happy that the organization believes in me and thinks so highly of me,” Chourio said.  “At the same time, there’s been a lot of hard work and now I’m getting rewarded so I want to continue to [work hard] and continue to succeed with the team.”

Regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects, Chourio has looked great during his three pro seasons, though his Triple-A experience consists of only six games.  The contract makes it likely but not a guarantee that Chourio will be the Brewers’ starting center fielder on Opening Day, yet even if he does need a bit more seasoning in the minors before making his big league debut, there’s no doubt Chourio is a huge part of Milwaukee’s future.

More from around the NL Central…

  • The Pirates’ signing of Ali Sanchez this week added a fourth catcher to the Bucs’ 40-man roster, as Sanchez joins Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, and Jason Delay.  This seeming surplus makes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wonder if the Pirates are adding depth in advance of a trade, perhaps even a headline-grabbing move that would see Rodriguez dealt for a controllable young pitcher.  Of course, Sanchez’s addition could also mean that the Pirates have again changed their mind about Davis being an option behind the plate, as the former first overall pick played right field almost exclusively during his 2023 rookie season.
  • The Reds have so many promising young infielders both in the minors and already on the MLB roster that it remains to be seen how exactly Cincinnati will line up these players around the diamond.  Elly De La Cruz has no problem with a potential position change, telling the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith that “wherever the team needs me, that’s where I’m going to play….For me, it doesn’t matter where I play.  I just want to play. I’m going to have fun wherever I am.  I just want to play as much as possible.”  De La Cruz played shortstop and third base during his rookie season, with public defensive metrics favoring his work at the hot corner.  Though Edwin Arroyo might end up being the longer-term defensive answer at shortstop, the Reds seem likely to use De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte at third base and shortstop in some fashion in 2024, though Matt McLain could very well figure into the shortstop plans as well if he isn’t at second base (or if Jonathan India isn’t traded).
  • Tyler Glasnow and the Cubs were linked in trade rumors earlier this week, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes that “nothing has changed too much over the past week” and “nothing seemed close to done, certainly not with the Cubs” on the Glasnow front as of yesterday.  In terms of what the Rays might want, Sharma believes Tampa Bay is looking for a controllable young pitcher as the headliner in a Glasnow trade package.  This might not necessarily be a fit for a Chicago team that is trying to build its young pitching depth, though Glasnow has been on the Cubs’ radar as a trade candidate for a few years.

Free Agent Notes: Imanaga, Fedde, Barnes

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Left-hander Shota Imanaga was officially posted by the Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball late last month, kicking off a 45-day window during which he’ll be eligible to sign with major league clubs. While Imanaga only just officially joined the ranks of MLB’s free agents days ago, he’s long been expected to be posted this offseason. That’s allowed Imanaga’s free agency to develop considerable buzz in recent months.

While he’s largely been overshadowed by NPB superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who’s widely considered the top starting pitcher on this offseason’s market, Imanaga is an impressive pitcher in his own right who is expected to be a potential mid-rotation arm in the big leagues with a low-nineties fastball as part of a deep pitch mix that Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions recently profiled. MLBTR ranked Imanaga tenth (sixth among starting pitchers) on our annual top 50 free agents list and projected him for a five year, $85MM deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that Imanaga’s market may be even stronger than expected, noting in a recent article that while teams were initially hopeful the southpaw could be had on a deal similar to the five-year, $75MM pact Kodai Senga landed last offseason, his final deal figures to exceed that, potentially to the point of approaching a $100MM guarantee.

Should Imanaga’s contract ultimately reach the $100MM range suggested by Passan, it would be a major win not only for Imanaga but also the BayStars. Imanaga’s free agency is subject to the MLB/NPB posting system, under which the team that signs the left-hander would owe the BayStars a posting fee worth as much as 20% of Imanaga’s total guarantee, with the percentage going down as the price of Imanaga’s contract goes up. If Imanaga were to sign for $100MM guaranteed, the BayStars would receive approximately $16.9MM, or just over $2MM more than they would receive if Imanaga signed an $85MM deal in line with MLBTR’s projections. The Cubs, Red Sox, and Mets have all been connected to Imanaga so far this offseason, though it’s certainly possible more teams are involved in the bidding for the 30-year-old’s services.

More free agent notes from around the league…

  • Former Nationals top prospect Erick Fedde is among the most interesting free agents on the market this offseason after a dominant season with the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization. Previous reports have indicated that Fedde, who sports a career 5.41 ERA across six seasons in the majors but altered his repertoire before dominating to the tune of a 2.00 ERA across 30 starts with the Dinos this year, has garnered interest from both the Dinos and MLB clubs. Su-eun Jeon of Baseball Korea (h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO) adds additional clarity to those reports, noting that Fedde has received interest from two MLB teams and a team in Japan’s NPB in addition to the offer he’s received to return to the Dinos. While it’s possible that Fedde could look to return to stateside ball this offseason, it’s worth noting that no former big leaguer returning from the KBO has secured a guarantee of even $10MM in the majors. That could lead Fedde to bet on himself by either remaining with the Dinos in hopes of a similarly dominant season in 2024 to further bolster his case for a more significant pact, or even consider a move to Japan in order to face NPB’s stiffer competition.
  • Fedde isn’t the only American-born player of note who could look to return to the majors this offseason, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggests left-hander Charlie Barnes is expected to garner MLB interest in free agency this offseason. Barnes, 28, was a fourth-round pick by the Twins in the 2017 draft and made nine appearances with the big league club in 2021. He struggled to a 5.92 ERA and 5.06 FIP in 38 innings of work for Minnesota across nine appearances. He’s spent the two years since then pitching for the KBO’s Lotte Giants, with a combined 3.46 ERA in 61 starts. Looking just at his 2023 season, Barnes struck out 20% of batters faced with a 3.28 ERA in 170 1/3 innings of work. In addition to the aforementioned MLB interest, Morosi suggests that the Giants are expected to have strong interest in retaining Barnes, who served as the ace of their staff this season.

Twins Notes: Buxton, Center Field, Rotation

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Twins fans received some positive news on the status of Byron Buxton today, as La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports that Buxton is fully recovered from the arthroscopic knee surgery he underwent back in October. Neal adds that team officials are pleased with Buxton’s progress and that the goal for the 29-year-old is for him to return to baseball activities by the end of 2023. It’s a promising update, particularly in tandem with recent comments from president of baseball operations Derek Falvey that indicated the club hopes to return Buxton to center field for the 2024 season.

Buxton, 30 later this month, struggled to stay healthy in 2023 even as the Twins moved him to the DH role on an everyday basis. Despite his typically elite center field defense, Buxton did not take the field at all this past season, appearing as a pinch hitter in five games and as the club’s DH in his other 80 appearances. The limited time on his feet unfortunately did not help Buxton stay productive at the plate, as he slashed just .207/.294/.438 with a 98 wRC+ that clocked in just below league average.

Considerable as Buxton’s struggles were in 2023, however, it’s difficult to overstate how transformative his the slugger’s presence can be when healthy. In addition to being one of the league’s most elite defensive outfielders, Buxton has shown the ability to provide game-changing offensive contributions as well. From 2020-22, he slashed a whopping .257/.317/.576 (144 wRC+) with 60 homers and 9.3 fWAR in 771 trips to the plate. The rub there, of course, is that Buxton was only to take the field for just over a full season’s worth of plate appearances across the shortened 2020 season and two full, 162-game campaigns.

Buxton’s substantial injury history led the Twins to acquire center fielder Michael A. Taylor from the Royals last offseason as a backup plan to Buxton. That decision proved to be a prudent one, as Taylor stepped in as the club’s regular center fielder in Buxton’s stead and performed admirably, pairing a strong glove with 21 home runs in 388 trips to the plate. With Taylor having departed for free agency last month, the Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale suggests that center field is the “biggest question mark” on the club’s roster as things stand, even as Buxton appears set to attempt to reclaim the regular job this spring.

If Buxton were to fall victim to the injury bug again, the Twins would have no other dedicated center fielder on their 40-man roster. That doesn’t mean the club completely lacks internal solutions. Nightengale notes that former fifth-overall pick Austin Martin, who has 65 games of experience in center at the minor league level, figures to focus on the position this spring, though he made just 12 appearances at the position last year and has yet to make his big league debut. In terms of players with major league experience, the club’s options in center field should Buxton be unable to handle full-time duties are limited to utility players Willi Castro and Nick Gordon, neither of whom has appeared at the position in more than 45 games in a season before.

That could make center field a position of need for the Twins even as they hope Buxton is able to return to everyday duties. The club’s plan to cut payroll this offseason makes a pursuit of top center field free agent Cody Bellinger impossible to imagine, though it’s at least plausible to imagine the club either re-signing Taylor or adding a similar piece like Kevin Kiermaier or Harrison Bader, who could easily play the position on a regular basis but wouldn’t necessarily demand everyday playing time. Of course, it’s possible even that sort of signing would cost-prohibitive without a trade of an veteran bat like Christian Vazquez, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler or Kyle Farmer. In that case, the club could be relegated to lower-tier free agents such as Kevin Pillar or a trade candidate like Trent Grisham or Dylan Carlson.

Nightengale also references the club’s expected pursuits of help in the starting rotation and at first base this offseason, though the rotation comments come with an interesting change of pace. While past reports have indicated the Twins are expected to focus on adding depth to the club’s rotation, Nightengale suggests that adding a “front-line starter” is a goal for the Twins this offseason, suggesting they could look to do so through the trade market. Given the club’s deep positional group and financial incentive to deal from that group, it’s easy to see how a deal for a front-of-the-rotation arm could come together.

That being said, Nightengale cautions that the Twins are far from alone in their goal of trading for a front-end rotation piece this offseason. While each of Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, and Tyler Glasnow have seen their names floated on the rumor mill so far this offseason even more teams have been floated as potential suitors. The Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, Reds, Padres, Mets, Red Sox, and Cardinals are among the clubs who have been connected to at least one of the aforementioned quarter of available arms, and it’s unclear if the Twins will be willing to outbid that crowded field to replace Sonny Gray at the top of their rotation alongside Pablo Lopez.

East Notes: Nationals, Mets, Rays

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The Nationals finished the 2023 season with a 71-91 record that left them as one of the worst teams in the National League, even as it represented a substantial improvement over the club’s 107-loss 2022 campaign. While the club has sat out the top of the free agent market during the recent seasons of their rebuild, it seems that may not be the case this offseason as the club looks to upgrade at the infield corners and at DH, per TalkNats. The club has already been linked to a reunion with third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who was posting career-best numbers with the Nats prior to being dealt to the Cubs at the trade deadline. The report suggests that the club has interest in first baseman Rhys Hoskins and outfield/DH slugger Jorge Soler in addition to Candelario. The report goes on to indicate that Washington has been “very active” in the starting pitching market to this point in the offseason, though it does not connect any specific names to the club.

The rumored targets make sense for the Nationals. The club has a major hole at third base given that former top prospect Carter Kieboom has failed to establish himself the big league level. Kieboom’s .207/.266/.368 slash line (70 wRC+) in 2023 was largely in line with his career numbers of .199/.297/.301 (65 wRC+), and Candelario or another third base addition would almost certainly represent a significant upgrade over the 26-year-old. Meanwhile, an addition at first base or DH could help the club improve an offense that currently figures to use journeyman Joey Meneses at one position without an established starter at the other.

As for the rotation, the club has several interesting young arms such as Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore that they figure to prioritize developing, with veterans such as Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams who can reliably eat innings. That being said, the Nationals’ starting staff posted a combined 5.02 ERA last season, the sixth-worst figure in the majors. What’s more, the club’s 5.30 FIP in the rotation was better than only the lowly Rockies, while their starting staff combined for just 4.9 fWAR, better than only Colorado and Oakland. That leaves plenty of room for improvement if the club decides to add even a lower-level free agent such as Matthew Boyd or Frankie Montas to its rotation, to say nothing of a more impactful addition.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • While the Mets have reportedly shifted their focus away from superstar free agent Shohei Ohtani, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the club is still looking at potential impact additions this offseason. They’ve long been connected to top-of-the-market arm Yoshinobu Yamamoto as they explore potential rotation upgrades, and Heyman adds that the Mets are looking into “nearly every available frontline starter” in addition to Yamamoto, including southpaws Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodriguez. While Heyman notes the club is unlikely to land a rental arm such as Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber on the trade market, he does suggest the club’s interest in rotation upgrades extends to White Sox starter Dylan Cease, who is under team control for the next two seasons and has seen plenty of trade buzz this offseason. Rotation upgrades make plenty of sense for New York after the club shipped out veteran aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline over the summer, leaving Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and newly-signed righty Luis Severino as the club’s only rotation locks entering 2024.
  • The Rays have interest in a reunion with right-hander Cooper Criswell even after non-tendering him last month, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Criswell, 27, made his big league debut as a member of the Angels in 2021 with a one-game cup of coffee that lasted just 1 1/3 innings. He spent the past two seasons as a member of the Rays, with a 5.45 ERA and 5.00 FIP in 36 1/3 innings of work across 11 appearances. While those numbers are certainly nothing to write home about, Criswell’s ability to go multiple innings and 46.8% career groundball rate at the big league level could make him a worthwhile depth addition for a Rays club that relied on 40 different pitchers throughout the 2023 campaign.
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