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Looking For A Match In A Dylan Cease Trade

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After a brutal 2023 season that saw the White Sox lose 101 games and finish fourth in a weak AL Central division, change is in the air on Chicago’s south side. Newly-minted GM Chris Getz made clear earlier this month that the club is operating with no untouchables on the roster. While there’s plenty of players on the White Sox roster who could garner interest in trade, including center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and DH Eloy Jimenez, perhaps the most discussed among those names is right-hander Dylan Cease, who the club reportedly fielded calls on ahead of this year’s trade deadline.

While no deal came together back then, it’s Cease is certainly still an attractive potential trade candidate for clubs in need of a rotation upgrade. While Cease struggled badly over the last two months of the 2023 as his ERA ballooned to 4.58 on the season, the underlying metrics surrounding Cease’s performance provide more reason for optimism. After all, his 27.3% strikeout rate this season left him tied with Mariners ace Luis Castillo for the eighth-highest figure in the majors this year among qualified starters, just ahead of front-of-the-rotation starters like Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler.

While his 10.1% walk rate certainly left something to be desired, Cease’s strand rate of just 69.4% can’t be ignored as a contributing factor to his struggles in 2023. Only four pitchers (Jordan Lyles, Aaron Nola, Lance Lynn, and Miles Mikolas) had a higher percentage of their batters come around to score than Cease this season. If the sequencing of Cease’s baserunners had produced a strand rate more in line with his career mark of 74.6%, it’s reasonable to think Cease would have been far more productive in 2023, and could be in line for better fortunes in 2024.

Even accounting for his difficult 2023 season, Cease has been one of the league’s most impressive starters over the past three seasons. Since the start of the 2021 season, Cease leads all pitchers with 97 games started and clocks in at 15th with 526 2/3 innings of work over that time. Between that volume of work and Cease’s strong production (3.54 ERA, 3.40 FIP), only seven pitchers have produced more fWAR than Cease over the past three seasons: Wheeler, Cole, Nola, Kevin Gausman, Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb, and Sandy Alcantara. In addition to being a part of that elite company, Cease won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign and is projected for a salary of just $8.8MM by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz next season, making him an affordable addition for even small-market clubs looking to add a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Given Cease’s affordability and multiple years of control, he figures to be an attractive alternative to an expensive multi-year deal for a front-end arm like Nola, Blake Snell, or Jordan Montgomery this offseason, particularly for clubs with significant budgetary restrictions. He’s certainly not a fit for every club, however. The A’s, Royals, Angels, Rockies and Nationals are all unlikely to contend during Cease’s remaining window of control, while some up-and-coming clubs like the Marlins, Guardians, Tigers, and Pirates have far more pressing needs on their roster that seem likely to take priority over adding a win-soon, front-end arm like Cease.

The Blue Jays, Mariners, and Brewers, meanwhile, are all teams that contended in 2023 but are much more in need of lineup upgrades than an arm to bolster the rotation, making them likely to pursue upgrades elsewhere. While teams like the Cubs, Twins, and Mets are all decent fits, the unlikelihood of a White Sox blockbuster with a division or crosstown rival (particularly the same one they acquired Cease from in 2017) and the Mets’ uncertain timeline for competitiveness make them less likely to land Cease as well, particularly in what could be such a crowded field of potential suitors. That still leaves 14 clubs that could at least plausibly have considerable interest in Cease’s services this offseason. A look at each of those teams…

Best Fits:

  • Braves: The Braves and White Sox have already gotten together on one fairly significant trade this offseason, and could make plenty of sense to do so again. With Kyle Wright out for the 2024 season and subsequently shipped off to Kansas City, the Braves are looking somewhat thin in the rotation with little certainty behind a front three of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton. An acquisition of Cease could take pressure off Morton as he enters his age-40 campaign as well as youngsters like Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver. Meanwhile, young infielder Vaughn Grissom is blocked by Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia up the middle in Atlanta but could immediately step into an everyday role at second base for the White Sox in 2024.
  • Cardinals: The Cardinals have made it clear they’re on the hunt for starting pitching this offseason, and swinging a deal for Cease could allow them to add a quality arm at a price that wouldn’t take them out of the running for an additional arm in free agency like Nola or Sonny Gray. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a bevy of big-league ready talent blocked at the major league level they could deal from, ranging from catching prospect Ivan Herrera to reclamation outfielder Dylan Carlson.
  • Diamondbacks: The reigning NL champs could certainly do with an upgrade to their rotation in 2024, which features little certainty beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Brandon Pfaadt showed flashes of untapped potential as the club’s third starter throughout the playoffs, but after posting a 5.72 ERA in 19 regular season appearances seems best suited to a back-end role until he can prove himself further. Though the Diamondbacks have shown interest in top-of-the-market NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the club has given out just one nine-figure contract in its history. Cease would offer Arizona a far more affordable option to pair with Gallen at the top of the rotation, and could offer a young bat like outfielder Alek Thomas as a potential centerpiece for the deal.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers are in desperate need of rotation reinforcements with sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler in his first season post-Tommy John surgery as the club’s most reliable arms for Opening Day 2022. Though the Dodgers are among the league’s most free-spending clubs, their rumored pursuit of Shohei Ohtani and need to fill multiple spots in the starting rotation could make a trade for Cease an attractive option to fill out a spot toward the front of the club’s rotation. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have several young arms that could interest the White Sox as part of a return package, including Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan.
  • Orioles: After a 101-win campaign in 2023, the Orioles figure to be more aggressive this offseason than they have in the recent past, when they’ve largely limited their additions to short-term deals for complementary players like Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier. That being said, the trade market could be a better route for Baltimore to seek improvements than free agency; after all, club officials have avoided making commitments to substantial payroll increases and the team has a deep crop of big league ready position players who may be best utilized as trade capital, ranging from arb-eligible role players like Ramon Urias to former top prospects like Jordan Westburg. Meanwhile, the addition of Cease would give the club a quality front-end starter to pencil in alongside Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish for the club’s hypothetical 2024 playoff rotation.
  • Rays: The Rays are facing an all-time high payroll in 2024 and are in desperate need of rotation upgrades following long-term injuries to Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan in 2023. Cease would be an affordable option the club could bolster their rotation with, giving them additional flexibility to explore trades of right-hander Tyler Glasnow while also potentially clearing some of the club’s positional logjam, where the likes of Curtis Mead could find themselves without much playing time in 2024.
  • Reds: The Reds haven’t been shy about their need for starting pitching help this offseason, and Cease makes sense for a club that regularly runs a payroll in the bottom half of the league as a potential impact arm who wouldn’t break the bank. Much like the Orioles, the Reds are deep in young infield options, with second baseman Jonathan India a prime candidate for a trade himself, to say nothing of blocked prospects like Edwin Arroyo.

Next Tier Down:

  • Astros: While the Astros could certainly use pitching help this offseason after being forced to rely on rookies like Hunter Brown and JP France for much of the 2023 season, it’s fair to wonder if the club has the appetite for another pitching blockbuster just a few months after swinging a deal with the Mets to bring Justin Verlander back to Houston at the trade deadline earlier this year. What’s more, the Astros are relatively lacking in the young, big league-ready talent that the Sox might look to acquire in a Cease deal.
  • Giants: The Giants are certainly in need of rotation upgrades after essentially only using Webb and veteran righty Alex Cobb as regular starting pitchers for most of the 2023 campaign. That being said, the Giants certainly have money to spend after last offseason’s failed bids for Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. With plenty of holes to fill on the roster, San Francisco may be better suited for an aggressive pursuit of free agent starters than giving up near-term youngsters in a deal for Cease.
  • Padres: San Diego’s rumored budgetary issues this offseason are well-documented at this point, and it’s possible the club could need to clear more payroll before taking on even Cease’s relatively modest $8.8MM projected salary. That being said, president of baseball operations AJ Preller is well known for his aggressiveness on the trade market, and a deal for Cease would certainly be more cost-effective than, for example, re-signing Snell to a nine-figure contract.
  • Phillies: The Phillies are in need of a top-of-the-rotation arm after the departure of Nola in free agency, but re-signing him appears to be the club’s top priority this offseason. That makes Philadelphia attempting to swing a deal for Cease fairly unlikely, particularly given the club’s relative lack of big-league ready prospect talent with whom they could attempt to make a trade.
  • Rangers: The reigning AL champs could certainly stand to upgrade their rotation after losing Montgomery to free agency, but much like their division rivals in Houston, the Rangers just swung a blockbuster to bring Max Scherzer to Arlington this past summer. What’s more, the club may be expecting Jacob deGrom back from Tommy John surgery sometime next year and already has a plausible five-man rotation of Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning for Opening Day 2024.
  • Red Sox: The Red Sox are clearly looking for a front-end starter to add to their rotation, and the clubs famously got together on a blockbuster deal during the 2016-17 offseason that sent Chris Sale to Boston. Despite that history, however, the Red Sox could be better off adding a long-term contract via free agency than spending prospect capital to acquire just two seasons of Cease, particularly given the club’s last-place finish in the AL East this past season.
  • Yankees: Much like their archrival Red Sox, the Yankees are clearly in the market for pitching upgrades this offseason. The Yankees are also a club that could certainly benefit from a shorter-term arrangement like the one Cease would provide, given the club’s several megadeals for players like Judge, Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Giancarlo Stanton. That being said, the club is seemingly reluctant to deal young, big league ready talent like Oswald Peraza, though it’s at least feasible a deal could come together surrounding prospects further from the majors like Spencer Jones and Chase Hampton.

Central Notes: Reds, Cubs, Baez

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The Reds enjoyed a 2023 season in which they exceeded expectations, spending the summer in the mix for a playoff spot despite ultimately falling just short with an 82-80 record. With a bevy of young infielders led by Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain, the club appears poised to potentially take another step forward in 2023. One key area in need of improvement, however, is the pitching staff: Cincinnati’s team ERA of 4.83 was the sixth-worst figure in the majors, and only the A’s and Rockies saw their rotation post a worse ERA than the Reds’ 5.43 figure. That rotation ERA is made all the more glaring by the fact that Reds starters combined for just 787 innings of work this year, 23rd in the majors.

Of course, that body of work from the rotation ignores the injury woes of promising young arms like Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, who could combine with fellow youngsters Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips can fill out a rotation that, at least on paper, looks better than this year’s bottom-three production would imply. While it’s certainly feasible that steps forward from young arms and health from Greene and Lodolo could provide Cincinnati with a serviceable rotation in 2024, Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer relayed comments from president of baseball operations Nick Krall today that indicate the Reds will look to add to their rotation this winter, taking advantage of an unusually deep free agent class for pitching.

Per Goldsmith, Krall told reporters that the Reds will look to add “some sort of blend of quality and quantity” to their pitching staff this winter, while noting that the club’s young arms can already provide the club with upside. Krall’s comments particularly seemed to indicate that the club is interested in pitchers who can both pitch out of the rotation and the bullpen as needed. That sort of swing arm is certainly in supply this offseason, with former Reds Michael Lorenzen and Alex Wood joined by the likes of Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo, and Jakob Junis among the arms who fit that description. Signing a swing arm could make plenty of sense for a Reds club that has several interesting young arms who figure to get looks in the rotation next year but is nonetheless clearly in need of a veteran presence who can provide reliable innings in the event of injury or under performance from the club’s youngsters.

More from around MLB’s Central divisions…

  • The Cubs’ coaching staff has largely been in flux since the club brought in Craig Counsell to take over for David Ross as manager, but Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times reports that at least two of Ross’s coaches will be retaining their positions under Counsell: hitting coach Dustin Kelly and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy. Kelly is the latest in a long line of Cubs hitting coaches in recent years; he became the eighth person to hold the role over the past twelve seasons upon taking the role for the 2023 campaign. Hottovy, meanwhile, is a much longer-tenured part of the Cubs organization. He first joined the organization back in 2014 before being elevated to the role of pitching coach in 2018. Counsell will be the third manager Hottovy serves under, joining both Ross and Joe Maddon.
  • Tigers shortstop Javier Baez is coming off perhaps the worst season of his career in 2023, having slashed a brutal .222/.267/.325 in 547 trips to the plate this year. That was the second-worst offensive performance from a qualified regular in baseball last year by measure of wRC+; Baez’s 61 figure, which was 39% worse than league average, clocked in just barely ahead of former White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson’s 60 wRC+. Brutal as the 2023 season was for Baez, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press relays that Baez is planning to spend much of his offseason stateside this winter rather than return to his home in Puerto Rico, as he typically does after the season comes to an end. During his time stateside, Petzold indicates that Baez plans to focus on strengthening his back and core muscles to recapture the athleticism that allowed him to connect for 86 home runs from 2017-2019, the fourth highest figure among qualified shortstops during that time span. If Baez, 31 next month, can successfully combat father time and recapture the power that carried his offensive profile in his youth, that would provide a massive boost to a Tigers team that finished bottom four in the majors with a team-wide wRC+ of just 89 in 2023.

AL Notes: Glasnow, Jansen, A’s

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The Rays figure to spend much of their offseason grappling with how to improve their roster despite a $126MM projected payroll (per RosterResource) that would be a franchise record. Given the considerable expected increase in Tampa’s payroll, plenty of speculation has swirled surrounding the future of ace right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who is in the final year of his contract with the Rays and is due $25MM in 2024. Moving Glasnow would trim considerable payroll for the Rays while also allowing them to secure cheaper talent in the return package, a method the club has frequently utilized in recent years when parting ways with players like Blake Snell, Chris Archer and, Evan Longoria.

While it’s certainly feasible the Rays could decide to take that route with Glasnow, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicates that such a deal is unlikely to come together any time soon, noting that the club’s talks regarding a Glasnow deal are seen as “preliminary.” Morosi goes on to suggest that a Glasnow trade is more likely to occur after the top tier of free agent starters, which includes Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, have found new homes. Waiting until the free agent market plays itself out more is a sensible choice for the Rays; after all, plenty of clubs are rumored to be looking for front-of-the-rotation impact this offseason, and teams that miss out on the aforementioned group of pitchers may be more motivated to get a deal for Glasnow done later in the offseason once the big names of the free agent market are off the table.

More from around the American League…

  • Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen is poised to hit free agency following the 2024 season, but it appears that the 28-year-old and the team aren’t planning on getting together on an extension any time soon. In an interview with Scott Mitchell of SportsCentre, Jansen said that though the sides did talk about a potential extension, “both parties agreed to carry on and see what happens throughout this year.” Toronto, of course, has fellow backstop Alejandro Kirk under team control through the end of the 2026 season. Given that reality, the fact that an extension for Jansen appears to not be a top priority for the Blue Jays is hardly a surprise. That’s especially true considering the club’s reported interest in top free agent bats such as Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger.
  • The Athletics have now received unanimous approval from MLB owners for their plan to relocate to Las Vegas. In the wake of the relocation vote, team president Dave Kaval interviewed with The Athletic’s Evan Drellich. Kaval expressed the team’s excitement for the coming move. Though he noted that Las Vegas leaves the club with “uncertainty” regarding revenue from local media as the smallest TV market in MLB, Kaval noted that the club expects their new market to “punch a little above its weight” in other areas to make up for that. Kaval also suggested that the club has no interest in leaving the “Athletics” name behind as it moves to the desert. That’s a particularly relevant piece of information given Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao has previously indicated that leaving the name in Oakland could be among the city’s demands should the A’s wish to stay in Oakland after their lease expires following the 2024 campaign but prior to the club’s Las Vegas ballpark’s opening, which is expected to occur in time for the start of the 2028 season. Kaval went on to clarify that the club’s current TV deal only applies while the club is playing in the Bay Area, which could provide the club with an additional incentive to get a deal done either with the city of Oakland or to share Oracle Park with the Giants for the 2025-27 seasons.

Mets Hire Kris Gross To Oversee Amateur Scouting

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After hiring Andy Green away from the Cubs for a senior player development role, the Mets are adding another name to their front office today. Per Joe Doyle of FSS Plus, the club has hired Astros scouting director Kris Gross to oversee their amateur scouting department. While Gross’s title with the Mets is not yet confirmed, Will Sammon and Chandler Rome of The Athletic suggest that he will be a vice president in New York, with Doyle suggesting his title is “believed” to be VP of Amateur Scouting.

Gross, 42, was a pitcher in the Cubs’ minor league system from 2003 to 2005. After retiring from his playing career, Gross began his scouting career with the Cardinals in 2009 before joining the Astros as a crosschecker in 2012. Gross was promoted to his most recent role of scouting director following the 2018 season. Right-hander Hunter Brown, catcher Korey Lee, and top outfield prospect Drew Gilbert are among the more notable names the Astros drafted under Gross’s watch, which coincided with the club’s loss of first- and second-round draft picks in 2020 and 2021 due to the club’s electronic sign stealing scandal. Brown has a career 4.60 ERA and 4.10 FIP with a 26.8% strikeout rate across 176 big league innings the past two seasons with Houston, while Lee and Gilbert were utilized at the trade deadline earlier this year to land right-handers Kendall Graveman and Justin Verlander, respectively.

Rome and Sammon note that although Gross was the person in charge of Houston’s 2023 draft, GM Dana Brown had more direct influence over the process than former GMs James Click or Jeff Luhnow did in the past. Brown’s involvement in the draft process was hardly a surprise given his background as VP of scouting with the Braves, and the pair note that Brown and Gross enjoyed a strong working relationship in 2023. Still, it’s possible that Brown’s hands-on approach to the draft could leave the Astros in better position to absorb the loss of Gross than may otherwise be expected.

In departing Houston, Gross heads to New York to join new Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns, whom Gross overlapped with in Houston during Stearns’s years as assistant GM of the Astros. Sammon and Rome also point out that one of Stearns’s perceived weaknesses during his tenure in the top job with the Brewers was the club’s record in the draft, a flaw that the addition of Gross could help to assuage. After a difficult 2023 season that leaves the Mets’ plans for 2024 and beyond murkier than expected, Gross is set to join a Mets organization that has made clear their intention to prioritize bolstering the club’s farm system.

To this point, the club has gotten a solid head start on that goal and currently ranks seventh in the majors per Fangraphs. That being said, the Mets also watched top talents such as Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio struggle in their first tastes of big league action in 2023 even as young catcher Francisco Alvarez held his own while stepping into an everyday role with the club. The struggles from Baty, who was a consensus top-3o prospect entering the 2023 campaign but slashed just .212/.275/.323 in 108 games with the Mets this year, and others underscore the work still left to do for Gross and the rest of the front office.

Mets Interested In Luis Severino

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Luis Severino’s trip through free agency could lead him to another New York borough, as the former Yankees right-hander has gotten some interest from the Mets, The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports.  Mets officials are planning a meeting with the 29-year-old to explore the possibility of a deal between the two sides.

A reunion with the Yankees doesn’t appear to be happening for Severino, but at least eight teams were known to have some level of interest in the two-time All-Star.  It’s probably safe to guess that an even higher number will at least check in before the offseason is over, given the widespread need for pitching around the league and Severino’s potential as a reclamation project.

Severino’s career got off to such a promising start that the Yankees signed him to a four-year, $40MM extension prior to the 2019 season, a rare move for a team that usually doesn’t explore contract extensions on general principal.  Unfortunately for the Yankees, they perhaps should’ve stuck to their policy in this case, as Severino’s career went into a tailspin due to injuries.  He pitched only 18 total big league innings from 2019-21, primarily due to Tommy John surgery but with shoulder, lat, and groin problems also contributing to those three lost years.

More lat injuries limited Severino’s availability in 2022, but he at least returned to pitch 102 innings and post a 3.18 ERA, so the Bombers exercised their $15MM club option on the righty’s services for 2023.  This was another transaction that backfired, as Severino again battled injuries (an oblique strain and another lat strain) en route to a 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 frames.

In all likelihood, Severino and his agents at Rep 1 Baseball will be aiming for a one-year contract this winter.  (MLBTR projected him for a one-year, $14MM pact.). This would allow Severino to re-enter the market next winter, theoretically after he has enjoyed the type of healthy and productive season that would serve as a better platform for a pricey multi-year commitment.  As noted earlier, many teams would be fits for Severino, and his willingness to take a one-year deal would open the door to offers from both big spenders and smaller-market clubs.

This means that in lieu of a bidding war based purely on money, Severino might prioritize environment and an organization with a track record of rejuvenating pitchers’ careers.  The Mets themselves don’t have that kind of reputation, but new president of baseball operations David Stearns is coming from a Brewers team that had a knack for developing and finding plenty of hidden-gem arms over the years.  Heading to Queens would also allow Severino to remain in New York, and once again play for Carlos Mendoza, as the new Mets skipper spent the previous six seasons on the Yankees’ coaching staff.

Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana are the only locks for the Amazins rotation in 2024, so it isn’t any surprise that the Mets are looking to acquire at least two more arms to a staff that also has Tylor Megill, Jose Butto, Joey Lucchesi, and (after a midseason return from hip surgery) David Peterson in the mix for starts.  Severino may not be the most stable of options given his long injury history, yet with the Mets willing to spend at high end of the market, the team has the flexibility to pursue both frontline arms and slightly lower-cost fliers like Severino.

Angels Hire Johnny Washington, Jerry Narron To Coaching Staff

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The Angels have announced two new members of their coaching staff, as Johnny Washington has been hired as the Halos’ hitting coach and Jerry Narron will be the new Major League catching coach.

The 39-year-old Washington has been the Cubs’ assistant hitting coach for the last two seasons, coming off a one-year stint in South Korea for the KBO League’s Hanwha Eagles.  Before that trip abroad, Washington was a longtime coach in the minor leagues with the Dodgers and Padres, and San Diego promoted him to the big league staff in 2017 to act as the first base coach and eventually the hitting coach.

There’s no relation between the new hitting coach and new Angels manager Ron Washington, and the two just missed crossing paths during Johnny’s playing career, as his time as a prospect in the Rangers’ farm system ended just before Ron became the Texas manager prior to the 2007 season.  However, the Angels have had Johnny Washington on their radar in the past, as they interviewed him for their managerial vacancy in the 2019-20 offseason before eventually hiring Joe Maddon.

Under ex-hitting coach Marcus Thames (who is now taking over the hitting coach job with the White Sox), the Angels had mostly decent to middle-of-the-pack batting numbers across the board in 2023.  Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout naturally contributed to lot of the offense, and L.A. got good results from Luis Rengifo, Taylor Ward, and Brandon Drury, though injuries plagued the Halos on the whole.  2024 could be a transformative year in Anaheim if Ohtani departs in free agency, so Washington’s to-do list includes continued development for younger bats like Nolan Schanuel and Logan O’Hoppe, and seeing if Anthony Rendon can get his bat back on track if the third baseman can finally avoid the injury bug.

Narron celebrates his 68th birthday in January, and he brings almost 50 years of experience as a player, coach, manager, and several other roles at the Major League and minor league levels.  Narron is best known for his two stints as a big league manager, helming the Rangers in 2001-02 and the Reds from 2005-07.  He played for the then-California Angels from 1983-86, and he was back in the organization last year as a minor league catching coordinator.

Reds PBO Nick Krall Downplays Idea Of A Jonathan India Trade

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Because the Reds are loaded with up-and-coming young infield talent, Jonathan India has been seen a logical trade candidate since prior to summer’s trade deadline, and it is widely considered possible or even probable that the former NL Rookie of the Year could be moved this winter.  However, Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall threw some cold water on the concept of an India trade when speaking with Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer and other reporters Friday, saying “I wouldn’t say we are motivated.  If a deal comes around, we have to be open to anything.  But just motivated to move players off your roster just because ’that guy might not fit (a specific spot).’  That doesn’t make any sense.”

Naturally, some gamesmanship could be at work here.  Openly admitting that India was being shopped would do nothing for the Reds’ leverage in trade talks, and it might not play well within the Cincinnati clubhouse since India is a beloved team leader.  Krall’s “open to anything” stance in regards is common within front offices around baseball since you never know when a rival team might unexpectedly make a big offer, yet while he didn’t close the door on India being dealt, Krall also made several logical points about why the Reds would want to retain the second baseman’s services.

For one, it wasn’t long ago that India was seen as a key member of Cincinnati’s rebuild, after capturing NL ROY honors in 2021.  He has since been hampered by hamstring problems in 2022 and then a bout of plantar fasciitis in 2023, limiting him to 222 of a possible 324 games and an uninspiring .246/.333/.394 slash line over 960 plate appearances.  That works out to a 98 wRC+ over the last two seasons, and 1.7 fWAR total when also factoring in India’s subpar defensive numbers at second base.

While the emergence of Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand has led to a crowded state in the Cincinnati infield, Krall disagreed with the concept that his team necessarily even has a surplus.

“You look at our club, and I think most guys were injured at some point last year.  So if you have a deep bench of guys that can play every day, that’s not a fault in our roster.  That’s a good thing,” Krall said.  “I would welcome that, to have guys who have experience to be able to play multiple positions, to be able to step into a spot and be a good player….[India is] a first-time arbitration-eligible player; we’ve got him under control for three more seasons.  He fits our club.  He fits our group.”

“If you said, ’Hey, you’ve got guys coming behind him or you’ve got guys that are pushing him out or that he doesn’t have a spot to play,’ that’s one thing.  But he does have a spot to play here.  There are at-bats here.  Are they going to be 650, 700 plate appearances in a season?  No, but that also gives you the ability to give guys days off and keep guys fresh and healthy throughout the course of the year.”

Krall isn’t wrong in extolling the benefits of depth, to say nothing of the fact that Steer (who debuted in 2022) is the only member of the younger group who has any big league experience prior to 2023.  In the event of an injury or even just a sophomore slump from one or two members of the prospect core, and suddenly the Reds might go from a surplus to a bit of a shortage of reliable infield possibilities.  That being said, if depth is what the Reds want, they could also look to add another infielder for more of a clear backup role, while trading India for help elsewhere on the roster.

While India’s fate is yet to be determined, the Reds did part ways with one infielder yesterday when Nick Senzel wasn’t tendered a contract before the Friday evening tender deadline.  Krall told MLB.com’s Joe Trezza and other reporters that the Reds first explored trading Senzel, saying “we talked to a handful of teams and obviously didn’t find the interest to move him.  So we decided this was probably best for our organization, to move on and let him find a place where he can play every day.”

Moreso than the $3MM salary Senzel was projected to earn in arbitration, the Senzel decision ultimately down to a roster crunch.  As Krall put it, “we’ve got seven infielders still on the 40-man.  We looked at where Senzel was and it was a little bit of, ’How does all this work?’ ”

It seems quite likely that Senzel will land a guaranteed contract with another team, and perhaps might yet be a late bloomer with a change of scenery heading into his age-29 season.  Debuting in 2019 as one of baseball’s top prospects, Senzel has a modest .239/.302/.369 slash line over 1366 career plate appearances.  Health problems and a number of positional changes have marked Senzel’s career, which Krall acknowledged in making the tough non-tender choice.

Mets Hire Andy Green In Player Development Role

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The Mets have hired Andy Green for a senior role in their player development department, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (X links).  Earlier today, Sherman reported that Green had been fired from his previous job as the Cubs’ bench coach, but Sherman corrected himself by saying that Green wasn’t fired, but that he turned down the Cubs’ offer to remain as bench coach or in another job in the organization.

This isn’t the first link between Green and the Mets this winter, as it seems likely that the groundwork for this hiring was laid when Green interviewed for New York’s managerial opening a few weeks ago.  Though the Mets opted to hire Carlos Mendoza as their new skipper, obviously the club liked Green enough to still want him within the organization.  With Craig Counsell unexpectedly supplanting David Ross as Chicago’s new manager, Green might have decided it was also time for a change, as Green’s stint as bench coach coincided with Ross’ four-year tenure as the Wrigleyville manager.

Green is no stranger to the Big Apple, as his last three seasons as a player were spent in the Mets organization, including his last four MLB big games in 2009.  Upon retirement, he became a manager in the Diamondbacks’ farm system and then Arizona’s third base coach for the 2015 season.  Green was then hired to be the Padres’ manager, compiling a 274-366 record from 2016-19 while initially overseeing a rebuilding San Diego club.

It remains to be seen if this player development job could lead to a new career path for the 46-year-old Green, or if he’ll eventually look to return to an on-field role.  Green’s managerial aspirations obviously haven’t left him, given his interviews with both the Mets and the Guardians within the last two months.

Cubs Part Ways With Bench Coach Andy Green

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Cubs bench coach Andy Green won’t be back with the team in 2024, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Green was “dismissed.”  It isn’t known exactly when Green was let go, yet Chicago has already started looking for a replacement, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via X) reports that Marlins first base coach Jon Jay received an interview but won’t be hired.

The somewhat under-the-radar nature of Green’s firing is a little surprising, though in the bigger picture, a change of bench coach commonly coincides with the hiring of a new manager.  With Craig Counsell now running the Cubs’ dugout, it makes sense that he would get some say in picking and choosing his staff — particularly at bench coach since the role usually serves as the manager’s top lieutenant.  For instance, Green was one of David Ross’ first hires when Ross became the Cubs’ manager during the 2019-20 offseason.

Beyond his four years of experience as Chicago’s bench coach, Green is best known for his four-year stint as the Padres’ manager from 2016-19.  San Diego didn’t have any winning seasons during Green’s tenure, though the Padres were rebuilding during the first few of those years before expectations were raised after the Manny Machado signing.  The lack of success with the Friars didn’t entirely dim Green’s prospects as a skipper, since he interviewed with both the Mets and Guardians just this winter about managerial vacancies.

The 38-year-old Jay only just retired in April 2022, hanging up his cleats after 12 MLB seasons (which included a stop with the Cubs in 2017).  It didn’t take long for Jay to jump back into the game, however, as Jay was named Miami’s first base coach shortly after ex-teammate Skip Schumaker become the Marlins’ manager last year.  Jay has been cited as a potential future managerial candidate himself, as he fits the trend of clubs looking to hire younger managers more recently removed from their playing careers.

Royals Sign Four To Minor League Contracts

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The Royals announced that right-hander Luis Cessa, left-hander Austin Cox, catcher Logan Porter, and outfielder Diego Hernandez have all been signed to minor league deals.  Cessa is a newcomer to the organization, while Cox, Hernandez, and Porter are making quick returns after being non-tendered yesterday.

Best known for his team with the Yankees as a starter, reliever, and swingman, Cessa had a 2.51 over 64 2/3 bullpen innings with New York and Cincinnati during the 2021 season.  Cessa moved back into swingman work in 2022 with mixed results (a 4.57 ERA), and things went south for the right-hander in 2023.  Pressed into rotation work at the start of the year, Cessa struggled to a 9.00 ERA over 26 innings and was released by the Reds in May.  That marked the end of Cessa’s big league work last year, as he caught on with the Rockies and Nationals on minor league contracts but continued to struggle badly at Triple-A.

Cessa’s career 4.43 ERA and 4.41 SIERA are virtually identical, so the righty hasn’t exactly gotten away with a lack of missed bats throughout his career.  Cessa has gotten by with some good whiff and chase rates despite the low strikeout totals, and he had been good at limiting heavy contact in the form of barrels prior to 2023.  Control had also never really been an issue for Cessa prior to 2023, yet his walk rates crept upwards at both the MLB and minor league levels, leaving him even less margin for error.

The 31-year-old will try to get on track with the Royals, who need pitching of all kinds whether in the rotation or bullpen.  Since Kansas City isn’t expected to be a big spender this winter, it seems likely that the team will look to bring any number of veteran arms into camp on minor league or low-cost deals, in the hopes that at least a couple of them could break out and win jobs on the Opening Day roster.

None of Cox, Porter, or Hernandez were eligible for salary arbitration, but Cox and Porter were designated for assignment this past week and ultimately cut to open up some space on Kansas City’s 40-man roster.  In Hernandez’s case, the outfielder will return for his sixth season in the Royals’ farm system, and will probably start 2024 back at Double-A.

Cox made his MLB debut in 2023, posting a 4.54 ERA over 35 2/3 innings before his rookie year came to an unfortunately early end.  Cox tore his ACL while trying to cover first base during a fielding play in the Royals’ game with the Blue Jays on September 8, and he’ll now miss most or all of the 2024 season in recovery.  It seems quite possible that a handshake deal was in place for Cox to rejoin the Royals, as he was only DFA’ed yesterday and quickly passed through waivers, so he’ll now get to rehab in a familiar environment.

Porter was another 2023 debut, as he had a .647 OPS in 38 plate appearances over his first 11 games in the Show.  An undrafted free agent who signed with the Royals in 2018, Porter hit .248/.367/.394 over 594 PA at Triple-A over the last two seasons, and should again serve as a depth option at the minor league level behind the Royals’ big league catching tandem of Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin.

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