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Dodgers Interested In Trading For Dylan Cease
The Dodgers and White Sox have discussed the possibility of Dylan Cease heading to Los Angeles, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. There isn’t any indication that a trade is particularly close, or whether or not this was a due diligence inquiry from the Dodgers given the club’s obvious need for pitching.
While the White Sox aren’t exactly rebuilding, new GM Chris Getz has directly said that he is open to trade offers as the Sox look for ways to address their many needs. Thursday’s trade of Aaron Bummer to the Braves saw Chicago pick up at least starting middle infielder (Nicky Lopez) and perhaps two (Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster) new arms for the starting rotation, bringing some depth onto a depleted roster.
Apart from trading Luis Robert Jr., dealing Cease would be the biggest move the White Sox could make to quickly add a lot more talent to the organization. MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently explored Cease’s trade market, citing 14 teams that make sense as trade suitors given Cease’s past quality and his relatively inexpensive price tag over two remaining arbitration-eligible seasons. Cease is projected for an $8.8MM salary in 2024, so even if a big performance next year raises his 2025 salary significantly, that still adds up to two seasons of front-of-the-rotation pitching for around $22MM.
Over three full seasons as a starter, Cease was solid in 2021, outstanding in 2022, and then fairly ordinary last year, struggling to a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. A 4.10 SIERA is a little more flattering, as Cease’s .330 BABIP and 69.4% strand rate certainly contributed to his issues, plus it is fair to wonder if he was affected by the overall malaise of the Southsiders’ disastrous 101-loss season. Cease’s subpar walk rates and his tendency (apart from in 2022) to surrender hard contact are red flags, but there’s still a lot to like about the right-hander as he enters his age-28 season.
From the Dodgers’ perspective, Cease represents a much surer thing than most every other pitcher in their projected 2024 rotation. Walker Buehler returns from a 2023 season entirely lost to Tommy John surgery, Dustin May will miss at least the first half of 2024 due to flexor tendon surgery, and swingman Ryan Yarbrough is the only other experienced arm within a pitching mix that includes a lot of rookies and second-year pitchers. Bobby Miller has claim on one rotation spot behind Buehler, but Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are all varying degrees of question marks.
Trading from this pitching depth might be a risk for Los Angeles, given all the uncertainty about their rotation. However, on paper, this is still a good crop of young arms that would be attractive to other teams, particularly a club like the White Sox in need of controllable pitching. Speculatively, one would imagine Miller is off-limits for the Dodgers in trade talks, but moving one or even two of the other pitchers might be feasible for a Los Angeles club that clearly wants to win now. Or, L.A. might try to tempt the Sox with some of its many quality position players in the minors — top prospects Dalton Rushing and Diego Cartaya might have particular appeal to Chicago since the Sox are very thin in the catching ranks.
Braves Interested In Sonny Gray
The Braves have interest in Sonny Gray, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) describes Atlanta as “one of the top suitors” for the right-hander’s services. The Twins (Gray’s former team), Cardinals, and Phillies have all been linked to the free agent at various points this winter, though Philadelphia is probably off the board after re-signing Aaron Nola earlier today.
Intriguingly, Morosi and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Atlanta also made a push to sign Nola, indicating that the Braves have their eyes on a big rotation upgrade. Reports from last week suggested that the Braves were targeting pitching help, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote earlier today that “at least front-line starter” seems to be on Atlanta’s wishlist
As Rosenthal and others have observed since Friday’s non-tender deadline, the Braves made a flurry of cuts to their arbitration class, as a series of trades, releases, and non-tenders resulted in 10 open spots on the 40-man roster and almost $14MM shaved from the budget. The Braves were planning to increase payroll anyway in 2024, yet naturally every dollar counts in a situation where Atlanta might have to outbid other teams for a top free agent hurler.
MLB Trade Rumors projected a four-year, $90MM deal for Gray, who ranked ninth on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents. The three-time All-Star has been solid for most of his 11-year career, but 2023 was arguably Gray’s best season, as he delivered a 2.79 ERA over 184 innings for the Twins and finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting. While Gray’s past injury history is a little checkered, his performance last year likely helped calm some doubts over whether or not Gray can remain a productive and durable arm as he enters his age-34 season.
It is possible that the Braves view Gray as, at the very least, a successor to Charlie Morton as the rotation’s veteran stalwart. Morton came to Atlanta in advance of his age-37 season and has been very effective over his three seasons with the team, to the point that the Braves exercised their $20MM club option to bring Morton back for 2024. Morton is now 40 years old and often considering retirement, while Max Fried can be a free agent next winter, so Atlanta could use another longer-term pitcher to pair alongside Spencer Strider.
Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has been pretty measured in his free agent pursuits in his six years running the front office. Marcell Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal is easily the largest contract the Braves have given out in the Anthopoulos era, with most of their other signings trending towards one- or two-year deals with experienced veterans (i.e. Kenley Jansen, Josh Donaldson, Morton’s initial deal). Because the Braves surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2023, they’d also have to give up two 2024 draft picks and $1MM in international draft pool money to sign a qualifying-offer rejecting free agent like Gray.
However, it could be that this is simply an extra price that Anthopoulos is willing to pay to bolster the rotation. While the Braves’ starting pitching has been more than solid in recent years, it has fallen short in the playoffs the last two years, plus the Braves navigated a lot of rotation injuries last year in particular. Since there’s no indication that Atlanta’s powerful lineup is going to slow down, improving the pitching staff might be the last step necessary in getting the Braves back to the World Series.
Padres Sign Mason McCoy To Minor League Deal
The Padres have signed shortstop Mason McCoy to a minor league contract, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (via X). The deal contains an invitation for McCoy to attend San Diego’s big league Spring Training camp.
The Blue Jays outrighted McCoy off their 40-man roster in late September, and he became a minor league free agent after the season. Originally a sixth-round pick for the Orioles in the 2017 draft, McCoy is changing teams for the third time in his career, after previous playing with the Mariners and Jays. Seattle dealt McCoy to Toronto in July in exchange for Trent Thornton, and McCoy ended up making his MLB debut, making six appearances as a late-game sub with one plate appearance.
McCoy has hit .257/.330/.393 over 2796 career PA in the minor leagues. Twenty-one of his 51 career homers in the minors came with Seattle’s Triple-A affiliate in 2022, though he was unable to keep that surprising power surge going, and the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League might have played a role in McCoy’s sudden extra pop. McCoy is more of a threat on the basepaths, stealing 90 bases in 106 tries in the minors.
Most of McCoy’s playing time has been at shortstop, though he has seen a lot of work as a second baseman and some action at third base and in left field. With Manny Machado set to miss some time at the start of the year while recovering from elbow surgery, the Padres in need of extra infield depth, so McCoy might have a decent chance to win himself a backup job in Spring Training.
Central Notes: Woodruff, Turnbull, Cardinals
The Brewers parted ways with right-handed ace Brandon Woodruff ahead of the non-tender deadline late last week, making the 30-year-old a free agent for the first time in his career. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic discussed the circumstances under which Woodruff became a free agent and his outlook entering the open market this morning, noting that the Brewers did receive interest from multiple clubs ahead of Friday’s deadline in acquiring Woodruff. The return in such a deal would have been negligible, however, and Rosenthal notes that Milwaukee decided to simply non-tender Woodruff rather than ship him to a team he might not prefer to join in exchange for a minimal return.
Now that the Brewers have allowed Woodruff to hit free agency, Rosenthal notes that the right-hander figures to receive two-year offers on the open market, suggesting that the total guarantee could clock in below the two-year, $30.35MM extension Rays righty Tyler Glasnow inked with the Rays last summer. Though Glasnow was in a somewhat similar situation to Woodruff at the time of the deal, having missed the entire 2022 season to that point due to Tommy John surgery, Glasnow was nearing a return from the procedure when he signed on to a deal that would cover his age-29 and -30 campaigns. Woodruff, by contrast, is expected to miss anywhere between six and eighteen months, per Rosenthal, and would be signing on for his age-31 and -32 campaigns.
More from around MLB’s central divisions…
- Joining Woodruff on the free agent market after being non-tendered by the Tigers is right-hander Spencer Turnbull. Per Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, president of baseball operations tried to trade Turnbull ahead of Friday’s non-tender deadline but was unable to find any takers. The decision to non-tender Turnbull, McCosky notes, comes after a long-running saga of issues between the club’s decision to option Turnbull to Triple-A back in May (a move that was later rescinded due to an at-the-time undisclosed neck injury) and subsequent decision to option him a second time in August while he was working his way back from the neck injury and subsequent toe issue. Tensions between the sides got to the point that McCosky notes Turnbull requested a trade ahead of the trade deadline on August 1 this past summer, though of course no deal wound up occurring back then. Now a free agent, Turnbull figures to be among the more interesting rebound candidates on the rotation market this offseason, given his flashes of success from 2020-21 when he posted a 3.46 ERA and 3.24 FIP across 20 starts.
- While the Cardinals are known to be in the market for multiple starting pitchers and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak referenced discussions he had with right-hander Aaron Nola’s representation in conversation with Tom Ackerman of KMOX, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that the club’s interest in Nola never reached the point where the club met with the right-hander or made a formal offer prior to him re-signing with the Phillies earlier today. Though Goold notes that other NL clubs were “actively engaged” in attempting to lure Nola away from Philadelphia, he adds that the Cardinals were not among them, despite indications earlier in the offseason that the club would be interested in Nola’s services this winter. While Nola is now off the market, he’s far from the only top-of-the-market pitching free agent the Cardinals have been connected to this offseason, Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray has been connected to St. Louis multiple times so far this offseason, while the club also has reported interested in NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a potential reunion with southpaw Jordan Montgomery.
Kyle Keller Reportedly Drawing Interest From MLB Clubs
Right-hander Kyle Keller is reportedly drawing interest from six major league teams, per Robert Murray of FanSided. Murray adds that Keller, who pitched in Japan the past two seasons, is also drawing interest from NPB clubs.
Keller, 30, was an 18th-round pick by the Marlins in the 2015 draft and pitched in the majors for parts of three seasons, from 2019-21. He recorded 46 1/3 innings of work across the Marlins, Angels, and Pirates organizations during that time, struggling to a 5.83 ERA with a 7.00 FIP. Control problems were the main culprit of Keller’s struggles, as evidenced by his 15% walk rate in the majors. Entering the 2022 campaign, Keller signed on with NPB’s Hanshin Tigers to become the club’s closer.
The righty impressed in that role over two seasons with the Tigers. After posting a strong 2.72 ERA in 49 2/3 innings of work in Japan during the 2022 season, Keller put together an even more impressive season in 2023, with a sterling 1.71 ERA across 26 1/3 frames. He struck out 23.7% of batters faced on the year and has even managed to rein in his control issues during his time overseas, walking just 8.8% of batters faced over the past two seasons.
Given those strong numbers during his time in Japan, it’s easy to see why MLB clubs would have interest in Keller for the 2024 campaign. While a reliever on the wrong side of thirty with a fairly limited NPB track record and previous struggles at the major league level is unlikely to land a significant multi-year deal in the majors, it’s certainly feasible that Keller could find a team willing to roll the dice on a major league contract for his services. Free agent lefty Matt Moore and Diamondbacks right-hander Scott McGough are among the examples of big leaguers who departed MLB for the NPB before returning stateside in recent years.
Phillies Reportedly “Moving Closer” To Re-Signing Aaron Nola
10:36AM: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Phillies and Aaron Nola are “moving closer” on a reunion. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman and MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki also confirmed Nightengale’s report that talks between the sides have heated up in recent days.
9:55AM: The Phillies and right-hander Aaron Nola have both made clear a desire to see the righty ace return to Philadelphia on a long-term deal this offseason, dating back to before Nola was even officially a free agent. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated this morning that there’s reason for optimism regarding a deal coming together between the two sides, noting that contract talks between the sides have “gained significant momentum” in recent days.
That, of course, doesn’t mean that an agreement between the two sides is imminent or even necessarily close, but it’s a notable development nonetheless. After all, it was just last week that reporting from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicated the sides were “not at all close” to a new deal while The Athletic’s Jayson Stark suggested that Phillies may not “go all out” to retain Nola, adding that interest from rival clubs made a seventh year on Nola’s contract possible. That’s a level the Phillies reportedly weren’t willing to go to in extension talks last spring, though it’s possible that the club has changed its tune since then.
Nightengale’s report goes on to suggest that Nola’s camp is seeking a seven-year, $210MM deal while the Phillies have countered with a six-year, $150MM offer at this point. Those price points are substantially closer than the four-to-five year pact that the Phillies reportedly offered Nola last offseason and the eight-year counter from Nola’s camp. That apparent progress in reaching a deal appears all the more encouraging with Nightengale suggesting that the sides are “getting close to finding a middle ground” between the two figures.
With one year and $60MM separating the two offers, there’s plenty of room for the sides to meet somewhere in the middle. Of note, the Phillies’ reported offer to Nola comes in just $12MM under the total guarantee left-hander Carlos Rodon secured from the Yankees last offseason over the same term, meaning virtually any movement from Philadelphia would allow Nola to secure a guarantee above that of Rodon. Speculatively speaking, the Phillies could offer Nola a higher AAV than Rodon over the same term if they’re unwilling to offer a seven-year deal to Nola, who will celebrate his 31st birthday next summer. Such a deal could fall in the $168MM to $180MM range in terms of total guarantee.
A seven-year pact would see Nola turn 37 in the final year of the deal. That’s an age the Phillies have shown a willingness to sign position players through: superstar first baseman Bryce Harper and marquee shortstop Trea Turner are signed through their age-38 and -40 seasons, respectively. That being said, the club hasn’t shown the same appetite for deals that would take pitchers into their late thirties. Zack Wheeler signed with the club on a five-year deal to become Nola’s co-ace in the Phillies rotation, though that deal will see him hit the open market next offseason following his age-34 campaign. That’s the same age former Phillies lefty Cole Hamels was signed through when he extended with the club back in 2012.
Even a six-year pact would be breaking new ground for the Phillies; while the club signed Hall of Famer Roy Halladay through his age-36 season, that deal was for just three years and $60MM. That’s a far cry from the nine-figure deal Nola figures to land. What’s more, any movement from the Phillies’ current price point of six years and $150MM would take Nola’s contract above what MLBTR projected for the right-hander in our annual Top 50 free agents list.
Despite all of this, it’s easy to see why the Phillies would make such a plunge to retain Nola’s services. Nola’s spent nine years with the club serving as a homegrown ace since his debut with the club back in 2015. In that time, he’s compiled a career 3.72 ERA (113 ERA+) and 3.38 FIP with a 27.2% strikeout rate. Since his breakout 2018 campaign where he earned his first career All Star appearance and finished third in NL Cy Young award voting, Nola has been even more impressive with a 3.65 ERA and 28% strikeout rate. On top of that quality production, Nola is among the most durable pitchers in the entire sport: he’s thrown more than 180 innings and made at least 32 starts in each of the last five 162-game seasons. Only Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings since the start of the 2018 campaign, while only Cole, Wheeler, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom have accumulated more fWAR than Nola’s 25.5 figure since then.
Should Nola and the Phillies ultimately come together on a new contract, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has previously indicated that the club’s starting rotation will be set for the 2024 campaign, likely taking Philadelphia out of the rotation market for the rest of the offseason. If a deal between the sides doesn’t get done, however, the club figures to be aggressive in looking to replace Nola with NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto among the club’s reported hypothetical targets. Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray are among the other potential top-of-the-rotation arms to be had on the free agent market, though Stark reports the club is “lukewarm” on Snell. The trade market could hold other alternatives to Nola for the Phils, such as Brewers ace Corbin Burnes or White Sox righty Dylan Cease.
Dietrich Enns To Sign With KBO’s LG Twins
Former big league left-hander Dietrich Enns is finalizing a deal with the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization, per Dan Kurtz of My KBO. The terms of the contract are not yet known.
Enns, 32, was selected by the Yankees in the 19th-round of the draft back in 2012. Enns was swapped to the Twins in 2017 and made his major league debut that same year, though he struggled to a 6.75 ERA in just four innings of work. The lefty spent the next several seasons in the minor leagues, bouncing between the Twins, Padres, and Rays organizations before returning to the big leagues in 2021 with Tampa Bay. Enns found more success with the Rays that season, pitching well in multi-inning relief. In 22 1/3 innings of work across nine appearances, Enns posted a 2.82 ERA with an even stronger 2.32 FIP, striking out 28.4% of batters faced while walking just 6.8%.
Despite that strong performance in 2021, Enns was unable to secure a big league role for the 2022 season and instead departed for a role overseas, joining the Seibu Lions of Japan’s NPB. Enns pitched very well for the Lions in his first NPB season, with a 2.94 ERA in 122 1/3 innings of work across 22 starts. Unfortunately, that success did not carry over to 2023 as the lefty struggled to a 5.17 ERA in just 54 innings of work.
Still, Enns’s success in both the majors in 2021 and NPB in 2022 make him an interesting addition to the Twins, who Kim Geun-han of MK Sports indicates hope that Enns can replace five-year MLB veteran Adam Plutko on the club’s pitching staff for the 2024 campaign. Plutko, for his part, is hoping to return to stateside ball this offseason after posting a 2.49 ERA across 49 starts in Korea the past two seasons.
Report: Mariners Not Expected To Sign Shohei Ohtani
The Mariners have long been considered a candidate to pursue Shohei Ohtani this winter, yet chances may be slim that the reigning AL MVP will head to the Northwest. According to MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer, “industry sources” say “that landing Ohtani doesn’t appear to be within the Mariners’ realistic agenda this offseason.”
Why this is the case isn’t specified, or whether or not this might represent a shift in the Mariners’ thinking after having some early talks with Ohtani and his representation. Kramer cites some possible reasons, several related to the record-setting price tag that Ohtani is expected to land this winter. It could be that the M’s are wary about committing what will likely be over $500MM to a single player, even one of Ohtani’s stature and ability.
Seattle hasn’t been exactly shy about payroll in the past few years. After all, the franchise could end up spending $470MM on Julio Rodriguez, and will owe the young star at least $210MM based on the terms of his elaborate contract extension from August 2022. Luis Castillo and J.P. Crawford signed lucrative extensions in their own right, and the Mariners inked Robbie Ray to a $115MM free agent deal in the 2021-22 offseason.
These deals notwithstanding, the Mariners are currently projected for a $143.3MM payroll in 2024, putting the team around the middle of the pack in spending. The $143.3MM figure does represent one of the higher payrolls in franchise history, and adding Ohtani for what could be $50MM in average annual salary would put the M’s into uncharted financial territory for them.
As Kramer notes, splurging on Ohtani might leave little in the budget for the front office to address other needs. Obviously adding Ohtani would be a major way of addressing Seattle’s broad need for lineup help, “yet, it’d also be imprudent to suggest that Ohtani’s bat alone would solve all the Mariners’ problems,” Kramer writes. If president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto did get the green light to boost payroll by $50MM, using that money on multiple players might be a wiser way of upgrading the roster than spending it all on a DH-only player whose pitching future might be somewhat murky after a second major arm surgery.
In theory, an early pivot away from Ohtani might help the Mariners in some other winter pursuits. There has been a ton of speculation and very little fact about exactly how Ohtani and his camp plan to approach his free agency, yet recent reports indicate that Ohtani might pick his next team before the Winter Meetings begin on December 4. Even if Ohtani is planning to leave the market relatively early, that still gives the Mariners a couple of weeks to pursue other free agents or trade options while many of the bigger-spending teams are still tied up waiting for Ohtani’s decision.
Even though there are plenty of other ways for the Mariners to improve the club besides signing Ohtani, there is sure to be some disappointment from Seattle fans that the two-way superstar might not be on the radar. The Mariners had a somewhat quiet offseason last winter, and as Kramer points out, this relative lack of aggression coming off a playoff berth was interpreted by some as a sign that the M’s were financially gearing up to make a big run at Ohtani this year.
The Mariners were one of the seven teams who were the finalists for Ohtani when he first came to the majors from Nippon Professional Baseball during the 2017-18 offseason. With some speculation still existing that Ohtani might prefer teams on the west coast, the Mariners were seen as a natural potential landing spot this time around, especially since Ohtani has spent time in Seattle in past offseasons and stated that “I felt like it’s a very nice city. I really liked it.” As well, the Mariners’ longstanding connection to Ichiro Suzuki (one of Ohtani’s baseball heroes) has made the team a popular destination for Japanese talent, and the thinking was that signing Ohtani would only strengthen that bond for a new generation of fans.
Even if Seattle is out of the picture, Ohtani’s market is still very active. Teams like the Angels, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Cubs, and probably other big-spenders like the Yankees, Mets, Padres, and Phillies have all been linked to Ohtani to varying degrees, so it could be that the Mariners felt they weren’t going to win a bidding war with so many clubs involved. Given how Ohtani’s camp is prioritizing secrecy in negotiations, we might not hear much concrete news about his next destination until a signing is imminent.
Looking For A Match In A Dylan Cease Trade
After a brutal 2023 season that saw the White Sox lose 101 games and finish fourth in a weak AL Central division, change is in the air on Chicago’s south side. Newly-minted GM Chris Getz made clear earlier this month that the club is operating with no untouchables on the roster. While there’s plenty of players on the White Sox roster who could garner interest in trade, including center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and DH Eloy Jimenez, perhaps the most discussed among those names is right-hander Dylan Cease, who the club reportedly fielded calls on ahead of this year’s trade deadline.
While no deal came together back then, it’s Cease is certainly still an attractive potential trade candidate for clubs in need of a rotation upgrade. While Cease struggled badly over the last two months of the 2023 as his ERA ballooned to 4.58 on the season, the underlying metrics surrounding Cease’s performance provide more reason for optimism. After all, his 27.3% strikeout rate this season left him tied with Mariners ace Luis Castillo for the eighth-highest figure in the majors this year among qualified starters, just ahead of front-of-the-rotation starters like Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler.
While his 10.1% walk rate certainly left something to be desired, Cease’s strand rate of just 69.4% can’t be ignored as a contributing factor to his struggles in 2023. Only four pitchers (Jordan Lyles, Aaron Nola, Lance Lynn, and Miles Mikolas) had a higher percentage of their batters come around to score than Cease this season. If the sequencing of Cease’s baserunners had produced a strand rate more in line with his career mark of 74.6%, it’s reasonable to think Cease would have been far more productive in 2023, and could be in line for better fortunes in 2024.
Even accounting for his difficult 2023 season, Cease has been one of the league’s most impressive starters over the past three seasons. Since the start of the 2021 season, Cease leads all pitchers with 97 games started and clocks in at 15th with 526 2/3 innings of work over that time. Between that volume of work and Cease’s strong production (3.54 ERA, 3.40 FIP), only seven pitchers have produced more fWAR than Cease over the past three seasons: Wheeler, Cole, Nola, Kevin Gausman, Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb, and Sandy Alcantara. In addition to being a part of that elite company, Cease won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign and is projected for a salary of just $8.8MM by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz next season, making him an affordable addition for even small-market clubs looking to add a front-of-the-rotation arm.
Given Cease’s affordability and multiple years of control, he figures to be an attractive alternative to an expensive multi-year deal for a front-end arm like Nola, Blake Snell, or Jordan Montgomery this offseason, particularly for clubs with significant budgetary restrictions. He’s certainly not a fit for every club, however. The A’s, Royals, Angels, Rockies and Nationals are all unlikely to contend during Cease’s remaining window of control, while some up-and-coming clubs like the Marlins, Guardians, Tigers, and Pirates have far more pressing needs on their roster that seem likely to take priority over adding a win-soon, front-end arm like Cease.
The Blue Jays, Mariners, and Brewers, meanwhile, are all teams that contended in 2023 but are much more in need of lineup upgrades than an arm to bolster the rotation, making them likely to pursue upgrades elsewhere. While teams like the Cubs, Twins, and Mets are all decent fits, the unlikelihood of a White Sox blockbuster with a division or crosstown rival (particularly the same one they acquired Cease from in 2017) and the Mets’ uncertain timeline for competitiveness make them less likely to land Cease as well, particularly in what could be such a crowded field of potential suitors. That still leaves 14 clubs that could at least plausibly have considerable interest in Cease’s services this offseason. A look at each of those teams…
Best Fits:
- Braves: The Braves and White Sox have already gotten together on one fairly significant trade this offseason, and could make plenty of sense to do so again. With Kyle Wright out for the 2024 season and subsequently shipped off to Kansas City, the Braves are looking somewhat thin in the rotation with little certainty behind a front three of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton. An acquisition of Cease could take pressure off Morton as he enters his age-40 campaign as well as youngsters like Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver. Meanwhile, young infielder Vaughn Grissom is blocked by Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia up the middle in Atlanta but could immediately step into an everyday role at second base for the White Sox in 2024.
- Cardinals: The Cardinals have made it clear they’re on the hunt for starting pitching this offseason, and swinging a deal for Cease could allow them to add a quality arm at a price that wouldn’t take them out of the running for an additional arm in free agency like Nola or Sonny Gray. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a bevy of big-league ready talent blocked at the major league level they could deal from, ranging from catching prospect Ivan Herrera to reclamation outfielder Dylan Carlson.
- Diamondbacks: The reigning NL champs could certainly do with an upgrade to their rotation in 2024, which features little certainty beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Brandon Pfaadt showed flashes of untapped potential as the club’s third starter throughout the playoffs, but after posting a 5.72 ERA in 19 regular season appearances seems best suited to a back-end role until he can prove himself further. Though the Diamondbacks have shown interest in top-of-the-market NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the club has given out just one nine-figure contract in its history. Cease would offer Arizona a far more affordable option to pair with Gallen at the top of the rotation, and could offer a young bat like outfielder Alek Thomas as a potential centerpiece for the deal.
- Dodgers: The Dodgers are in desperate need of rotation reinforcements with sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler in his first season post-Tommy John surgery as the club’s most reliable arms for Opening Day 2022. Though the Dodgers are among the league’s most free-spending clubs, their rumored pursuit of Shohei Ohtani and need to fill multiple spots in the starting rotation could make a trade for Cease an attractive option to fill out a spot toward the front of the club’s rotation. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have several young arms that could interest the White Sox as part of a return package, including Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan.
- Orioles: After a 101-win campaign in 2023, the Orioles figure to be more aggressive this offseason than they have in the recent past, when they’ve largely limited their additions to short-term deals for complementary players like Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier. That being said, the trade market could be a better route for Baltimore to seek improvements than free agency; after all, club officials have avoided making commitments to substantial payroll increases and the team has a deep crop of big league ready position players who may be best utilized as trade capital, ranging from arb-eligible role players like Ramon Urias to former top prospects like Jordan Westburg. Meanwhile, the addition of Cease would give the club a quality front-end starter to pencil in alongside Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish for the club’s hypothetical 2024 playoff rotation.
- Rays: The Rays are facing an all-time high payroll in 2024 and are in desperate need of rotation upgrades following long-term injuries to Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan in 2023. Cease would be an affordable option the club could bolster their rotation with, giving them additional flexibility to explore trades of right-hander Tyler Glasnow while also potentially clearing some of the club’s positional logjam, where the likes of Curtis Mead could find themselves without much playing time in 2024.
- Reds: The Reds haven’t been shy about their need for starting pitching help this offseason, and Cease makes sense for a club that regularly runs a payroll in the bottom half of the league as a potential impact arm who wouldn’t break the bank. Much like the Orioles, the Reds are deep in young infield options, with second baseman Jonathan India a prime candidate for a trade himself, to say nothing of blocked prospects like Edwin Arroyo.
Next Tier Down:
- Astros: While the Astros could certainly use pitching help this offseason after being forced to rely on rookies like Hunter Brown and JP France for much of the 2023 season, it’s fair to wonder if the club has the appetite for another pitching blockbuster just a few months after swinging a deal with the Mets to bring Justin Verlander back to Houston at the trade deadline earlier this year. What’s more, the Astros are relatively lacking in the young, big league-ready talent that the Sox might look to acquire in a Cease deal.
- Giants: The Giants are certainly in need of rotation upgrades after essentially only using Webb and veteran righty Alex Cobb as regular starting pitchers for most of the 2023 campaign. That being said, the Giants certainly have money to spend after last offseason’s failed bids for Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. With plenty of holes to fill on the roster, San Francisco may be better suited for an aggressive pursuit of free agent starters than giving up near-term youngsters in a deal for Cease.
- Padres: San Diego’s rumored budgetary issues this offseason are well-documented at this point, and it’s possible the club could need to clear more payroll before taking on even Cease’s relatively modest $8.8MM projected salary. That being said, president of baseball operations AJ Preller is well known for his aggressiveness on the trade market, and a deal for Cease would certainly be more cost-effective than, for example, re-signing Snell to a nine-figure contract.
- Phillies: The Phillies are in need of a top-of-the-rotation arm after the departure of Nola in free agency, but re-signing him appears to be the club’s top priority this offseason. That makes Philadelphia attempting to swing a deal for Cease fairly unlikely, particularly given the club’s relative lack of big-league ready prospect talent with whom they could attempt to make a trade.
- Rangers: The reigning AL champs could certainly stand to upgrade their rotation after losing Montgomery to free agency, but much like their division rivals in Houston, the Rangers just swung a blockbuster to bring Max Scherzer to Arlington this past summer. What’s more, the club may be expecting Jacob deGrom back from Tommy John surgery sometime next year and already has a plausible five-man rotation of Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning for Opening Day 2024.
- Red Sox: The Red Sox are clearly looking for a front-end starter to add to their rotation, and the clubs famously got together on a blockbuster deal during the 2016-17 offseason that sent Chris Sale to Boston. Despite that history, however, the Red Sox could be better off adding a long-term contract via free agency than spending prospect capital to acquire just two seasons of Cease, particularly given the club’s last-place finish in the AL East this past season.
- Yankees: Much like their archrival Red Sox, the Yankees are clearly in the market for pitching upgrades this offseason. The Yankees are also a club that could certainly benefit from a shorter-term arrangement like the one Cease would provide, given the club’s several megadeals for players like Judge, Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Giancarlo Stanton. That being said, the club is seemingly reluctant to deal young, big league ready talent like Oswald Peraza, though it’s at least feasible a deal could come together surrounding prospects further from the majors like Spencer Jones and Chase Hampton.
