Rangers, Austin Pruitt Agree To Minor League Deal
The Rangers have agreed to a minor league pact with free agent righty Austin Pruitt, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The Texas native will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.
Pruitt, 34, spent the past two seasons in Oakland, where he pitched to a combined 3.65 ERA in 103 2/3 innings — primarily working out of the bullpen. Pruitt’s 16.2% strikeout rate with the A’s was well below the league average, but he also posted an excellent 5% walk rate during his stint in green and gold.
The 2022-23 seasons were Pruitt’s fifth and sixth at the MLB level. He’s previously spent time with the Rays, Astros and Marlins since debuting with Tampa Bay back in 2017. Overall, he’s logged 310 2/3 innings at the big league level and notched a 4.43 earned run average with comparable marks from fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.33) and SIERA (4.27).
Pruitt doesn’t throw particularly hard, averaging 91.8 mph on his heater, but he’s kept the ball on the ground at close to league-average levels and has generally limited hard contact well (career 88.3 mph exit velocity, 33.8% hard-hit rate). Oakland outrighted him off the 40-man roster following the season; he’d have been eligible for arbitration, given his five years of MLB service, but a forearm strain in August ended his season and the A’s opted not to keep him on the 40-man roster.
If Pruitt makes the big league roster in spring training, he’d likely open the season in the bullpen, as Texas currently has Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney locked into starting jobs. With both Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom recovering from injury, southpaw Cody Bradford currently figures to hold down the final spot.
Pruitt has 17 big league starts under his belt and has often worked as a multi-inning reliever, so he’d at least be a candidate for the five spot with a strong spring. The Rangers, however, could also make some additions to the starting staff before the offseason is up. Doing so would push Bradford, Pruitt and other eventual rotation candidates down the depth chart while lessening the need to rush prospects like Owen White, Cole Winn, Jack Leiter and Zak Kent, all of whom could benefit from some additional seasoning in the upper minors.
Mets Still Exploring Bullpen Market
Jan. 10: SNY’s Andy Martino indicates that the Mets are planning to spend in the vicinity of another $10MM on the 2024 payroll, with the bullpen indeed standing as the top priority. That’d very likely leave room for acquisitions along the lines of Suter, Peralta, Brebbia or other middle-tier relievers in free agency but figures to take the Mets out of the running for Hader and any of the top-tier bats left on the market.
Jan 9: The Mets have signed three relievers to major league contracts this offseason — Jorge Lopez, Michael Tonkin, Austin Adams — but perhaps aren’t yet done adding to the relief corps. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that while the Mets are highly unlikely to play at the top of the relief market (i.e. Josh Hader), they’re active in the lower tiers, with a preference for a left-handed arm. Brent Suter and Wandy Peralta are among the potential targets, and Sherman suggests that righty John Brebbia could be of interest to the Mets as well.
Suter, 34, has drawn some interest as a starting pitcher this winter but would presumably slot into the bullpen role for the Mets, whose president of baseball operations, David Stearns, knows the lefty quite well from the pair’s days together in Milwaukee (2016-22). Suter spent the 2023 season with the Rockies and showed no ill effects even moving to Coors Field; he logged a 3.38 ERA with an 18.8% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, 46.5% grounder rate and his characteristic brand of weak contact. Suter’s 84 mph average exit velocity, 26.3% hard-hit rate and 3.3% barrel rate all ranked in the 97th percentile or better among MLB pitchers.
While Suter has never been a huge strikeout arm, his nearly-impossible-to-barrel repertoire has long made him a successful big leaguer. He touts a 3.49 ERA since making his MLB debut back in 2016 and, since moving to a relief role back in 2020, has logged a 3.16 earned run average with a 21.4% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate. Suter’s age and lack of velocity — he averaged just 88.3 mph on his sinker in 2023 and has never topped an 88.4 mph average — might combine to tamp down his earning power, but he’s a candidate for a multi-year deal and could hold extra appeal to Stearns due to those Brewers ties.
Peralta, meanwhile, is a known commodity to another key Mets figure: incoming manager Carlos Mendoza. The former Yankees bench coach had a first-hand look at Peralta in each of the past three seasons as he became an increasingly important arm for the Yankees. From 2021-23, Peralta logged 153 innings of 2.82 ERA ball with a 21% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and huge 56.5% ground-ball rate. While Peralta isn’t quite at Suter’s level of hard contact suppression, he’s been in the 88th percentile or better in terms of his own average exit velocity in each of the past four seasons.
Brebbia, 33, has spent the past three seasons in San Francisco and fared quite well for the most part. He posted an ugly 5.89 ERA in a tiny sample of 18 innings there back in 2021 — his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Since then, he’s worked to a 3.47 ERA in 106 1/3 frames with the Giants from 2022-23. Brebbia has worked as a setup man but was also a frequent opener for the Giants. He’s fresh off a career-best 29.2% strikeout rate. In six big league seasons between the Cardinals and Giants, he’s logged a 3.42 ERA with better-than-average strikeout and walk rates of 25.5% and 7.2%, respectively.
Any of the three listed possibilities would come to the Mets with more track record than their signings to date. Mets fans might be frustrated at the lack of high-profile targets for the team outside of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a 12-year contract with the Dodgers, but any of Suter, Peralta or Brebbia would improve the club’s bullpen — likely on relatively short-term deals. That comes with the benefit both of slightly bolstering the roster while also creating the possibility of emerging as a deadline trade candidate in the event that the Mets fall out of the running by July.
Yankees, Marcus Stroman Have Had Recent Discussions
The Yankees have held “productive” discussions with free agent right-hander Marcus Stroman recently, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. There’s no indication that a deal is close at this time, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Long Island native had expressed interest in pitching for the Yankees (though the team hadn’t made an offer at the time).
On the one hand, signing Stroman is a straightforward means of addressing an obvious need for the Yankees. Beyond reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole, the Yankees’ rotation is littered with question marks. Injuries torpedoed the bulk of Carlos Rodon‘s first season in the Bronx; he pitched just 64 1/3 innings with a grisly 6.84 ERA after signing a six-year, $162MM contract. Fellow southpaw Nestor Cortes was limited to a near-identical slate of innings (with better but still sub-par results — a 4.97 ERA) due to injuries of his own. Former top prospect Clarke Schmidt made 32 starts and piled up a career-high 159 innings but did so with a 4.64 earned run average. The Yankees traded Michael King to the Padres in the Juan Soto deal and saw Luis Severino sign with the crosstown Mets in free agency.
On the other hand, Stroman himself is coming off an injury-ruined second half of his second and perhaps final season as a member of the Cubs. The two-time All-Star had pitched his way into Cy Young talks through the first half of the season, compiling a pristine 2.28 ERA with a 21.4% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and a massive 60% ground-ball rate in his first 16 starts — a span of 98 2/3 innings. Stroman, however, allowed 30 runs over his next 30 innings before hitting the injured list with a hip injury. While rehabbing that, he was diagnosed with a rib cartilage fracture that kept him on the shelf all the way into mid-September. Stroman returned to pitch eight shaky innings and then opted out of the final year and $21MM of his contract.
Given that end to his season, Stroman himself has some injury question marks. Beyond that, the Yankees in particular stand as a surprising fit to some extent, given general manager Brian Cashman’s prior and unusually candid remarks regarding the right-hander. In September of 2019, Cashman acknowledged to Wallace Matthews of ESPN that the Yankees held some interest in Stroman at that year’s trade deadline — Stroman ultimately landed with the Mets — before adding that they passed because they “didn’t think he would be a difference-maker” and that the right-hander “would be in our bullpen in the postseason.”
Perhaps some of that still holds true; the Yankees could well view Stroman as their fourth starter in the event that each of Cole, Rodon and Cortes are healthy. Then again, Stroman has pitched to a sharp 3.48 ERA in 514 innings since the 2019 trade deadline, fanning 21.4% of his opponents against a tidy 7.3% walk rate and complementing those marks with a terrific 52.5% grounder rate.
Regardless of where the Yankees feel he’d slot into the staff, there’s little doubt that Stroman is a clear upgrade for the team’s rotation. Stroman’s performance has been consistently better than average, and his perennially strong ground-ball rates have helped him post low home-run rates throughout his career (despite frequently pitching in hitter-friendly settings like Toronto and Chicago). The Yankees, whose own home park is friendly to hitters, have shown a strong preference for grounder-heavy pitchers in the bullpen (e.g. Zack Britton, Clay Holmes, Wandy Peralta, Joely Rodriguez), so it stands to reason that’d carry over to at least some extent in the rotation as well.
The Opener: Imanaga, Hicks, Llovera
As the offseason continues to trundle along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Imanaga contract to be finalized:
Left-hander Shota Imanaga reached an agreement with the Cubs last night, as first reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, but there’s still plenty of information surrounding the deal that’s yet to come to light. The deal is pending a physical, which is expected to happen today. In addition to Imanaga’s physical, today could bring clarity regarding the specific terms of the arrangement between the sides. Reporting has indicated that the deal guarantees Imanaga just $30MM over two years and involves a complex series of options as well as incentives that could bring the total guarantee to around $80MM over a longer term.
More complex contract structures have become more commonplace in recent years with examples ranging from San Diego’s arrangement with right-hander Michael Wacha last year to superstar outfielder Julio Rodriguez‘s extension with the Mariners. Even so, it’s something of a surprise to see Imanaga agree to a two-year commitment. Many in the industry believed he’d surpass Kodai Senga’s five-year deal with the Mets, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote just last week that some executives around the sport expected the left-hander to top $100MM. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM deal for the left-hander heading into the offseason.
2. Jordan Hicks’ market:
Right-hander Jordan Hicks is perhaps the best right-handed relief option on the market and arguably the market’s second-best bullpen arm behind relief ace Josh Hader. It appears the bidding for the flamethrowing righty’s services may be gaining steam, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicated yesterday evening that the market for Hicks has begun to pick up. Hicks has been connected to plenty of teams this offseason including the Yankees, Astros, Rangers, Red Sox, and Angels. Hicks, whom MLBTR predicted would land a deal worth four years and $40MM this offseason, combined a 28.4% strikeout rate with a 58.3% groundball percentage and would be a strong addition to virtually any club’s late-inning mix. Will the movement on his market lead to a signing in the near future?
3. Llovera exiting DFA limbo:
Red Sox right-hander Mauricio Llovera was designated for assignment back on January 3 to make room for fellow righty Lucas Giolito on the club’s 40-man roster. Today marks one week since Llovera was DFA’d, meaning a resolution is expected sometime today. The right-hander, 28 in April, made his big league debut with the Phillies back in 2020 and since then has spent time in the Giants and Red Sox organizations with a career 5.80 ERA and 5.29 FIP in 59 career big league innings.
While those numbers are nothing to write home about, it’s worth noting that he’s excelled in Triple-A in recent years, with a 2.82 ERA and 25.9% strikeout rate at the level since the start of the 2021 season. If a team is sufficiently intrigued by that performance, they could claim him on waivers and add him to their own 40-man roster. Should the Red Sox manage to sneak him through waivers, they’ll have the opportunity to assign him outright to the minor leagues where he can act as non-roster depth for Boston headed into the 2024 campaign. Llovera has previously been outrighted, however, giving him the right to reject a second outright assignment in favor of free agency.
Anthony Kay To Sign With NPB’s Yokohama BayStars
Left-hander Anthony Kay is signing with the Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). It’ll be the first overseas stint for the CAA client.
Kay, 29 in March, is a former first-round pick of the Mets. Traded to the Blue Jays as a prospect in the Marcus Stroman deal, he debuted with Toronto in 2019. That kicked off a stretch of five seasons with some amount of MLB action. His largest workload came in 2021, when he logged 33 2/3 innings of 5.61 ERA ball.
The UCONN product remained with the Jays through the 2022 season. He bounced around the league last year, going to three different teams on waivers. Kay opened the season with the Cubs and briefly landed with the Mets at year’s end. During the postseason, the A’s claimed him. Oakland cut him loose a couple weeks later without any game action, sending him to the open market.
Kay has yet to find much MLB success. He owns a 5.59 ERA through 85 1/3 innings, working mostly in a long relief capacity. Middling control has been the primary culprit. Kay has walked upwards of 12% of batters faced in his MLB career. He handed out free passes at a 13.6% clip during his big league work last season and walked a nearly identical 13.7% of opponents over 37 1/3 innings in Triple-A.
Strike-throwing issues notwithstanding, Kay represents an intriguing flier for an NPB team. His fastball has averaged just under 95 MPH during his time in the majors. He has a reasonable 22.4% strikeout percentage in his big league career and fanned more than 31% of opposing hitters in Triple-A a year ago.
That ability to miss bats would’ve enabled Kay to find a minor league contract if he wanted to remain in affiliated ball. The opportunity in Japan allows him to lock in a salary that is surely above what he’d have made in Triple-A. He’ll take that avenue instead. If he pitches well in NPB, he could reemerge as a target for major league teams a year or two from now.
Red Sox Promote Paul Toboni To Assistant GM
The Red Sox are promoting Paul Toboni to assistant general manager, as first reported by Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The 33-year-old had held the title of vice president of amateur scouting and player development.
Toboni was among the internal options whom the Sox considered in their search for a new front office leader after dismissing Chaim Bloom. He’d have had to jump a number of people on the organizational hierarchy to land that position, which always made him a long shot for the top job. Nevertheless, he lands a promotion a few months later under new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.
Boston now has four assistant GMs: Toboni, Raquel Ferreira, Eddie Romero and Mike Groopman. Toboni moved quickly into the upper ranks of the organization. A collegiate infielder at Cal, he was hired by the Sox as a scout in 2015. By 2020, he’d been tabbed to orchestrate the club’s amateur drafts — a role he held through 2022.
While the Sox have a number of assistant general managers, they don’t have anyone currently holding the GM title. Breslow suggested at the time of his hiring as chief baseball officer that he wasn’t in a rush to tab a GM, who would serve as his top assistant in the front office.
Mariners Agree To Minor League Deals With Kirby Snead, Jhonathan Diaz
The Mariners have signed left-handers Jhonathan Diaz and Kirby Snead to minor league contracts, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Both pitchers come from AL West rivals who had outrighted them at the end of last season.
Diaz had spent the past few years with the Angels. The 27-year-old got to the majors every season from 2021-23 but hasn’t tallied more than four appearances in any year. He pitched seven innings over four games last September, allowing 11 runs (eight earned) with seven walks and four strikeouts.
A swing option, Diaz started eight of 38 appearances with Triple-A Salt Lake. He logged 87 innings of 4.55 ERA ball for the Bees. Diaz kept the ball on the ground at a solid 48% clip but had middling strikeout (21.5%) and walk (11.1%) numbers. He’ll likely open next season with the M’s top affiliate in Tacoma as multi-inning depth.
Snead, 29, is a more traditional lefty specialist. Originally a Blue Jays draftee, he made a brief MLB debut with Toronto in 2021. The Jays included him as the fourth piece in the Matt Chapman deal with the A’s the following offseason. Snead pitched 44 2/3 innings for Oakland in 2022, allowing a 5.84 ERA.
A shoulder strain cost him the first three months of the 2023 season. Upon his return, he got into 15 MLB games. Snead allowed seven runs (six earned) across 11 2/3 frames. He fanned nine and issued six walks. The Florida product had a tough run in a very hitter-friendly Triple-A setting. Pitching for the A’s top affiliate in Las Vegas, he was tagged for a 7.59 ERA in 21 2/3 innings. He walked over 14% of opposing hitters.
Snead’s results the past two years haven’t been encouraging, but he managed a 1.58 ERA in 40 Triple-A innings back in 2021. He held left-handed batters to a .141/.222/.203 showing in 73 plate appearances that season. The M’s will see if a change in environment can help him recapture something closer to that ’21 form.
L.A. District Attorney’s Office Will Not File Felony Charges Against Julio Urias; Case Referred For Misdemeanor Consideration
The Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office has determined not to file felony charges against free agent pitcher Julio Urías, reports Alden González of ESPN (X link). The investigation has been forwarded to the L.A. City Attorney’s Office to determine whether misdemeanor charges are warranted.
Urías, then a member of the Dodgers, was arrested and booked on a felony charge of “corporal injury on a spouse” on September 3. According to ESPN, police alleged in the arrest report that Urías was arrested after a physical altercation between a man and a woman following an MLS game. Law enforcement turned the case over to the District Attorney’s Office in mid-December.
Prosecutors have evidently determined not to proceed with the felony case. Whether misdemeanor charges are filed will determine if the criminal proceedings continue. The decision not to bring felony charges is not a declaration that no assault of any kind was committed. Jack Harris of the L.A. Times reports that the D.A.’s office’s charge evaluation worksheet claims that Urías “pushed his wife against a fence and pulled her by the hair or shoulders” but stated that “neither the Victim’s injuries nor the Defendant’s criminal history justify a felony filing.”
MLB will presumably wait on the resolution of the criminal matter before deciding whether discipline is warranted. The league can impose discipline even in the absence of criminal charges under the Joint Domestic Violence policy with the Players Association.
In 2019, MLB suspended Urías for 20 games after determining he violated the domestic violence policy at that time. (He was arrested on the 2019 incident but did not face criminal charges after the DA’s Office agreed to defer prosecution.) No player has yet been suspended twice for violations of the domestic violence policy.
Urías spent the remainder of the 2023 season on administrative leave. He became a free agent at the start of the offseason thanks to his six years of service time. He finished the year with a 4.60 ERA in 21 starts.
White Sox GM Discusses Rotation, Right Field
White Sox general manager Chris Getz spoke with reporters today and discussed some of the club’s plans for the rest of the offseason and the upcoming campaign, with Scott Merkin of MLB.com and Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times among those to relay the information. Getz acknowledged that Dylan Cease has received plenty of interest from other clubs but said that the Sox won’t trade him unless they feel the deal makes the club better. Elsewhere in the rotation, he said that Garrett Crochet will come into the season preparing to be a starter and that Chris Flexen is expected to be a starter as well. In terms of the lineup, he said that they don’t have an established starting right fielder as of right now and are open to external additions.
Cease, 28, has posted excellent results over the past three years and has been incredibly popular on the trade market in recent months. Teams such as the Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, Cardinals, Red Sox, Mets, Braves and Reds have all been connected to his market this winter. Some of those clubs have since pivoted to other moves but the rumors around the righty have continued to swirl, with many in the industry still expecting a trade before the start of the season. But from the point of view of the Sox, they don’t feel they have to make a deal. “We’ve had [trade] conversations about Dylan [Cease] but we’re not going to move someone unless there’s a benefit,” Getz said.
The righty is still under club control for two years, so the Sox don’t have to move him immediately if they don’t want to. But his trade value won’t get any higher at this point, making it sensible for them to take the best offer they can get at the moment. By the time the trade deadline rolls around, they will only be marketing a year and a half of his services and the number of suitors might dwindle if some interested clubs fall out of contention. There’s also the ever-present risk of an injury sapping Cease of his trade value.
It was reported back in December that the Sox were being patient with the market, seeing if the interest in Cease picked up after Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed and the clubs that missed on him pivoted. Yamamoto has now signed with the Dodgers, leaving Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery as the top free agents available but Cease one of the top trade candidates. Pitchers like Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and Jesús Luzardo have also been in trade rumors but it’s unclear how open their respective clubs are to offers.
In the case of Cease, the Sox have reportedly been setting a high asking price, which is perhaps why no deal has been consummated as of yet. It was reported last month that the Sox asked the Reds for four of their top prospects, which seemed to put an end to the discussions. The Reds agreed to terms with free agent Frankie Montas on a deal about a week after that report. Whether the Sox will back down from that apparent lofty asking price, or some other club will bite the bullet and meet it, remains to be seen.
The high level of interest and the asking price are both reflections of his immense talent. Over the past three campaigns, he has taken the ball 97 times and produced an earned run average of 3.54 in that time, along with a 29.8% strikeout rate. FanGraphs considered him to be worth a combined 12.6 wins above replacement in those years, the eighth-best tally out of all big league pitchers. His ERA jumped to 4.58 ERA in 2023 but there seems to be little concern about that. His 27.3% strikeout rate was also a couple of ticks below the previous two seasons but he was also held back by his .330 batting average on balls in play and 69.4% strand rate, both of which are on the unlucky side. His 3.72 FIP and 4.10 SIERA suggest he was closer to his previous self than the ERA may indicate.
In addition to his skills, he’s also attractive due to his contractual situation. While frontline starters can secure nine-figure guarantees as free agents, Cease is still in his arbitration years. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.8MM and will be due one more raise before he’s slated for free agency after 2025.
Whether the Sox eventually move Cease or not, they will have plenty of question marks in their rotation. Pitchers like Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, Michael Soroka and Touki Toussaint will be in the mix for jobs but there’s uncertainty with each one of them. Fedde is coming off a tremendous showing in the Korea Baseball Organization but struggled in his MLB career prior to that. Soroka was mediocre in 2023 after missing most of the previous three seasons due to injuries. Kopech and Toussaint have battled significant control problems in their respective careers.
It appears the club is keeping an open mind with their rotation mix, with Crochet set to be built up this year. The lefty has previously expressed an interest in return to a rotation gig and will apparently get some kind of shot in the months to come.
Now 24 years old, Crochet was drafted by the Sox in 2020 and was quickly launched to the majors, making his debut later that same year as a reliever. In 2021, he stuck with the big league bullpen and posted an ERA of 2.82 over 54 appearances. There was some consideration of stretching him out as a starter going into 2022 but he required Tommy John surgery that April and missed the entire campaign. He returned to the Sox last year as a reliever but missed three months of the season due to shoulder inflammation and eventually made just 13 appearances.
Due to his limited workload in recent years, it may not be possible to fully stretch him out in just one season, something Getz acknowledged. Due to the canceled minor leagues in 2020, the Tommy John layoff and then the shoulder troubles, the southpaw has thrown just 73 big league innings over the past four years, as well as another 12 1/3 on rehab assignments in 2023. That would make it difficult for him to suddenly jump to 200 or even 150 innings in 2024, but the club will nonetheless give him some runway to see how it plays out.
“He believes he can be a starter. We’ve seen him be a starter in the past. So we are going to go into spring prepared to stretch him out and we’ll make adjustments along the way if need be,” Getz said. “He hasn’t started in a couple years. So, it’s going to take a little bit of time to appropriately stretch him out. We are going in with the intention for him to be a starter in 2024.” Crochet is eligible for arbitration this winter and is currently slated for free agency after 2026.
Also in the rotation mix will be Flexen, with Getz saying they expect starter’s innings out of him. The righty has worked both as a starter and reliever in recent years, with a disastrous 2023 campaign but better results in the two prior seasons. Over 2021 and 2022, he tossed 317 1/3 innings for the Mariners, with 53 of his 64 appearances coming as a starter. He had a 3.66 ERA in that time, only striking out 16.5% of batters but limiting walks and barrels.
But in 2023, he finished with a 6.86 ERA, splitting his time between the Mariners and Rockies. The Sox decided to overlook that rough showing and gave Flexen a $1.75MM guarantee on a big league deal. Though his performance will ultimately have a bearing on his role, the club appears to be planning on slotting him into the rotation mix.
Turning away from the rotation, Getz also said the club doesn’t have an established right fielder. He mentioned that they have internal options, including non-roster invitees, but that they are looking to make additions. That is a reflection of the poor debut season of Óscar Colás, who was a notable prospect coming into 2023 but struggled badly in his first 75 major league games. He batted .216/.257/.314 in his 263 plate appearances and also received poor grades for his defense. That led to tallies of -1.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and -1.5 from Baseball Reference. He still has two option years remaining, allowing the club to keep him in the minors if he doesn’t show signs of significant improvement.
The free agent market still features some notable outfield-capable guys, such as Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman, Jorge Soler, Tommy Pham, Joc Pederson, David Peralta, Eddie Rosario, Joey Gallo, Whit Merrifield and Randal Grichuk. The trade market could theoretically feature guys such as Randy Arozarena and Max Kepler, though it would be a surprise if a retooling club like the White Sox gave up significant prospects in any deal.
In terms of the internal options who could be battling Colás, Gavin Sheets has had some good hitting results in the past but is coming off a rough season and is considered a poor defender. Brett Phillips was signed to a minor league deal and is a strong defender but weak at the plate. Wynton Bernard and Mark Payton have been signed to minor league deals as well but both of them have less than 70 major league plate appearances. Given those internal options, keeping an eye out for upgrades makes sense, whether that’s a free agent signing, a trade or even just a waiver claim.
MLBTR Poll: Josh Hader’s Market
There’s no doubt Josh Hader is going to land the largest contract of any reliever this offseason. The more interesting question is whether he’ll establish a new high-water mark for bullpen arms.
Edwin Díaz became the first reliever to cross the nine-figure threshold. The right-hander re-signed with the Mets on a five-year, $102MM pact shortly before free agency opened during the 2022-23 offseason. (Deferrals reduced the contract’s valuation for luxury tax purposes to a little above $93MM.) That set a clear target for Hader’s camp.
Andy Martino of SNY wrote last week that teams engaged with Hader believe he’s shooting for that record. It makes for an interesting comparison between the two pitchers. Díaz was a year younger than Hader is now. The former was going into his age-29 season, while the latter turns 30 not long after Opening Day.
Hader has been a little better from a run prevention perspective. In 388 2/3 career innings, he owns a 2.50 ERA. Díaz had a 2.93 mark over 399 1/3 frames entering free agency (which is still the case because he missed the 2023 season after injuring his knee celebrating a triumph in the World Baseball Classic). While Hader showed a willingness to work multiple innings early in his career, he made clear that he preferred to occupy a single-inning role in recent seasons. Their overall body of work is about the same, while their platform-year ERAs are quite similar.
Díaz allowed a 1.31 ERA over 62 innings in 2022; Hader surrendered 1.28 earned runs per nine through 56 1/3 frames a year ago. There’s very little difference between those two numbers, although Hader probably has the more impressive figure when placed in league context. The league average ERA for relievers jumped from 3.86 to 4.17, likely reflecting both a somewhat livelier ball and rule changes implemented over the 2022-23 offseason (i.e. shift limitations) designed to tilt the game more toward offense.
Of course, there’s far more to a pitcher’s performance than keeping runs off the board. That’s particularly true for relievers, whose numbers can be skewed greatly by one poor outing (or simply a subpar defense). Díaz is probably more dominant on a pitch-for-pitch basis. While Hader has the slight edge in career strikeout rate, his approximate 37% mark in each of the past two seasons are his lowest since his rookie year. That’s still an elite number, to be clear, but it’s well shy of the laughable 50.2% of hitters whom Díaz fanned in 2022.
Opponents swung through nearly a quarter of all pitches that Díaz threw in his platform year. Hader’s 15.6% swinging strike percentage from last season was “merely” excellent, the 18th-highest rate in MLB among pitchers with 50+ innings. Díaz’s mark not only led the majors in 2022, it was three percentage points clear of second-place Andrés Muñoz. Díaz also throws a bit harder. He averaged north of 99 MPH on his fastball and nearly 91 MPH on his slider. Hader’s 96 MPH fastball and 86 MPH slider are more conventional velocity figures, although they’ve each proven almost unhittable.
The Padres made Hader a qualifying offer. New York re-signed Díaz before the deadline to make the QO but surely would have done so if they hadn’t agreed to a long-term deal. The Mets knew that re-signing Díaz was waiving their ability to collect the draft compensation they’d have received if he departed, which was presumably factored into the contract price.
Unlike the Mets, San Diego seems content to take the compensatory pick. The Padres have cut payroll and suggested they’re not going to spend at the top of the market. There haven’t been many suitors to emerge publicly. The Orioles were linked to Hader early in the offseason. They signed Craig Kimbrel to a $13MM deal and now profile as a long shot for a top-of-the-market relief splash. Teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Rangers have been mentioned as speculative fits but without firm ties. Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested this morning the Mets weren’t likely to be in on Hader.
Hader is one of the three to five best relievers in the sport. His camp has surely received calls that have gone unreported. Yet it’s a little surprising there haven’t been more public revelations on his market.
How will things play out? Will Hader top Díaz and where will he end up?
Will Josh Hader Surpass A $102MM Guarantee?
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No. 59% (5,956)
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Yes. 41% (4,193)
Total votes: 10,149
Where Will Hader Sign?
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Dodgers 21% (2,568)
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Rangers 17% (2,143)
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Yankees 16% (1,980)
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Phillies 12% (1,559)
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Cubs 10% (1,212)
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Giants 7% (847)
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Blue Jays 5% (656)
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Other (specify in comments) 5% (587)
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Angels 4% (533)
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Orioles 3% (388)
Total votes: 12,473