Blue Jays “Open To” Alek Manoah Trade Offers
After finishing third in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, Alek Manoah had a disastrous 2023 season, posting a 5.87 ERA over 87 1/3 innings while suffering a significant loss of control. Manoah’s hellish year included a month-long stint in the Florida Complex League to try and solve his sudden mechanical issues, as well as a later option to Triple-A Buffalo in August that didn’t result in any actual pitching appearances with the Bisons.
With all this in mind, it perhaps isn’t surprising that rival executives have told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that “the Blue Jays are open to moving” Manoah in a trade, and teams have made calls in general asking about Toronto’s rotation depth. Of course, teams are often willing to listen on virtually any player, so it isn’t clear if Toronto is merely doing its due diligence in not dismissing offers for Manoah, or if the Jays are actively shopping Manoah in some regard.
It’s difficult to call Manoah a true trade candidate given the still somewhat mysterious nature of his down year. Some type of injury seemed to be a factor, as Jays GM Ross Atkins said in October that Manoah received a PRP injection to treat some shoulder discomfort. Manoah also went through some medical testing during his stint in Buffalo, but there were also reports of some hard feelings between Manoah and the team, perhaps regarding how the minor league option might’ve cost Manoah enough service time to claim Super Two status.
Only the Jays and Manoah himself have an idea of his status heading into 2024, or if even that might still be unclear until Manoah gets some offseason or Spring Training work under his belt. Obviously no team is going to pay a big price for Manoah without having more understanding of what exactly is plaguing the 25-year-old right-hander, so that alone limits Toronto’s leverage in any trade discussions.
By that same token, if Manoah just needs to get healthy, it is possible he could enjoy a swift return to form. Should such a bounce-back happen, the Blue Jays obviously want to benefit, rather than selling low on Manoah and then watching him rebound on another club. That said, “selling low” is still better than selling for nothing, and another mediocre season might ruin Manoah’s trade value entirely. Manoah’s rough season is just one season, and rival teams might feel they have an answer to Manoah’s mechanical problems, or that a trade itself might get Manoah on track if there is indeed bad blood between the righty and Jays management.
MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently speculated that the Blue Jays and Cardinals might line up on a Manoah trade, perhaps involving such past Jays trade targets as Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, or Brendan Donovan. With Carlson and Tyler O’Neill both struggling for the last two seasons after some early success in their MLB careers, the Cards and Jays could theoretically explore moving two “sell low” candidates for each other, hoping that mutual change of scenery would benefit all parties. St. Louis is one of many teams looking for pitching this winter, and with the Jays having a wide array of holes to fill in the lineup, several clubs could be fits if Manoah was indeed available.
The other question about a Manoah trade is how it would impact Toronto’s rotation. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi are set as the top four, with Manoah being the favorite for the fifth spot though Atkins made no guarantees. If teams are asking about the Blue Jays’ pitchers in general, any of Bowden Francis, Mitch White, Wes Parsons, or even Kikuchi could be available at the right price. Such a deal involving another pitcher would imply that Toronto is confident Manoah can bounce back, or that the Jays are perhaps exploring acquiring another pitcher for more stability at the back end of the pitching staff.
Phillies Still Interested In Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Additional Depth Pitching
Even after officially reuniting with Aaron Nola on a seven-year, $172MM deal earlier today, the Phillies are still in the hunt for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. A source tells Coffey that the Phils will be “pretty aggressive” in going after the Japanese right-hander, “but if they don’t settle on the right price, they won’t push for a deal.”
The Athletic’s Matt Gelb concurs, hearing that the Phillies “will not be a top bidder on Yamamoto after finalizing the Nola deal.” Given how Yamamoto has gotten so much interest from multiple clubs and how MLBTR projects a nine-year, $225MM price tag for the righty’s first Major League contract, having any financial limits in place might alone halt Philadelphia’s chances. Gelb is also pessimistic about the Phillies’ chances due to the team’s relative lack of a history with Japanese players — in particular, no Japanese pitcher has ever appeared on Philadelphia’s MLB roster.
That said, the special circumstances of Yamamoto’s arrival in North American baseball has kept the Phillies interested on some level, and it could be that the club ultimately decides to make the splash on a special talent. Yamamoto is only 25 years old, and thus could be a rotation fixture for the better part of a decade if he pitches anything like he has over seven dominant seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball. Given how owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski haven’t shown much compunction about spending to upgrade the Phillies’ roster, Philadelphia probably can’t truly be ruled out until Yamamoto has officially put pen to paper with another team.
Yamamoto is already an exception to the rest of the Phillies’ pitching plans for the offseason. Coffey writes that the team is still aiming to add at least one more rotation-caliber piece, and potentially two in the form of Yamamoto and a swingman or spot starter type that could be optioned back and forth from Triple-A. Dylan Covey and Matt Strahm are already on the roster in such roles, though Covey is out of minor league options.
This runs somewhat counter to Dombrowski’s statement earlier this week that the Phillies were only looking for one more starter, though Coffey’s framing of the other potential additions as depth pieces wouldn’t detract from the projected starting five of Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez. If Yamamoto signs elsewhere, the Phillies will probably target only depth starters or multi-inning relievers going forward, as Coffey says “it’s unlikely” the team would pivot to another top-tier hurler.
In term of larger pitching expenditures, the Phillies might be saving some money for Wheeler, as Gelb writes that the team plans to discuss an extension at some point this offseason, if possibly closer to Spring Training. 2024 is the final season of the five-year, $118MM pact Wheeler signed during the 2019-20 offseason, and though Wheeler turns 34 in May, it’s easy to see why the Phillies are interested in a longer relationship. The righty has been excellent over his four years in Philadelphia, posting a 3.06 ERA over 629 1/3 innings and twice meriting top-six finishes in NL Cy Young voting.
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Dodgers Interested In Trading For Dylan Cease
The Dodgers and White Sox have discussed the possibility of Dylan Cease heading to Los Angeles, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. There isn’t any indication that a trade is particularly close, or whether or not this was a due diligence inquiry from the Dodgers given the club’s obvious need for pitching.
While the White Sox aren’t exactly rebuilding, new GM Chris Getz has directly said that he is open to trade offers as the Sox look for ways to address their many needs. Thursday’s trade of Aaron Bummer to the Braves saw Chicago pick up at least starting middle infielder (Nicky Lopez) and perhaps two (Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster) new arms for the starting rotation, bringing some depth onto a depleted roster.
Apart from trading Luis Robert Jr., dealing Cease would be the biggest move the White Sox could make to quickly add a lot more talent to the organization. MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently explored Cease’s trade market, citing 14 teams that make sense as trade suitors given Cease’s past quality and his relatively inexpensive price tag over two remaining arbitration-eligible seasons. Cease is projected for an $8.8MM salary in 2024, so even if a big performance next year raises his 2025 salary significantly, that still adds up to two seasons of front-of-the-rotation pitching for around $22MM.
Over three full seasons as a starter, Cease was solid in 2021, outstanding in 2022, and then fairly ordinary last year, struggling to a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. A 4.10 SIERA is a little more flattering, as Cease’s .330 BABIP and 69.4% strand rate certainly contributed to his issues, plus it is fair to wonder if he was affected by the overall malaise of the Southsiders’ disastrous 101-loss season. Cease’s subpar walk rates and his tendency (apart from in 2022) to surrender hard contact are red flags, but there’s still a lot to like about the right-hander as he enters his age-28 season.
From the Dodgers’ perspective, Cease represents a much surer thing than most every other pitcher in their projected 2024 rotation. Walker Buehler returns from a 2023 season entirely lost to Tommy John surgery, Dustin May will miss at least the first half of 2024 due to flexor tendon surgery, and swingman Ryan Yarbrough is the only other experienced arm within a pitching mix that includes a lot of rookies and second-year pitchers. Bobby Miller has claim on one rotation spot behind Buehler, but Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are all varying degrees of question marks.
Trading from this pitching depth might be a risk for Los Angeles, given all the uncertainty about their rotation. However, on paper, this is still a good crop of young arms that would be attractive to other teams, particularly a club like the White Sox in need of controllable pitching. Speculatively, one would imagine Miller is off-limits for the Dodgers in trade talks, but moving one or even two of the other pitchers might be feasible for a Los Angeles club that clearly wants to win now. Or, L.A. might try to tempt the Sox with some of its many quality position players in the minors — top prospects Dalton Rushing and Diego Cartaya might have particular appeal to Chicago since the Sox are very thin in the catching ranks.
Braves Interested In Sonny Gray
The Braves have interest in Sonny Gray, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) describes Atlanta as “one of the top suitors” for the right-hander’s services. The Twins (Gray’s former team), Cardinals, and Phillies have all been linked to the free agent at various points this winter, though Philadelphia is probably off the board after re-signing Aaron Nola earlier today.
Intriguingly, Morosi and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Atlanta also made a push to sign Nola, indicating that the Braves have their eyes on a big rotation upgrade. Reports from last week suggested that the Braves were targeting pitching help, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote earlier today that “at least front-line starter” seems to be on Atlanta’s wishlist
As Rosenthal and others have observed since Friday’s non-tender deadline, the Braves made a flurry of cuts to their arbitration class, as a series of trades, releases, and non-tenders resulted in 10 open spots on the 40-man roster and almost $14MM shaved from the budget. The Braves were planning to increase payroll anyway in 2024, yet naturally every dollar counts in a situation where Atlanta might have to outbid other teams for a top free agent hurler.
MLB Trade Rumors projected a four-year, $90MM deal for Gray, who ranked ninth on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents. The three-time All-Star has been solid for most of his 11-year career, but 2023 was arguably Gray’s best season, as he delivered a 2.79 ERA over 184 innings for the Twins and finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting. While Gray’s past injury history is a little checkered, his performance last year likely helped calm some doubts over whether or not Gray can remain a productive and durable arm as he enters his age-34 season.
It is possible that the Braves view Gray as, at the very least, a successor to Charlie Morton as the rotation’s veteran stalwart. Morton came to Atlanta in advance of his age-37 season and has been very effective over his three seasons with the team, to the point that the Braves exercised their $20MM club option to bring Morton back for 2024. Morton is now 40 years old and often considering retirement, while Max Fried can be a free agent next winter, so Atlanta could use another longer-term pitcher to pair alongside Spencer Strider.
Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has been pretty measured in his free agent pursuits in his six years running the front office. Marcell Ozuna‘s four-year, $65MM deal is easily the largest contract the Braves have given out in the Anthopoulos era, with most of their other signings trending towards one- or two-year deals with experienced veterans (i.e. Kenley Jansen, Josh Donaldson, Morton’s initial deal). Because the Braves surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2023, they’d also have to give up two 2024 draft picks and $1MM in international draft pool money to sign a qualifying-offer rejecting free agent like Gray.
However, it could be that this is simply an extra price that Anthopoulos is willing to pay to bolster the rotation. While the Braves’ starting pitching has been more than solid in recent years, it has fallen short in the playoffs the last two years, plus the Braves navigated a lot of rotation injuries last year in particular. Since there’s no indication that Atlanta’s powerful lineup is going to slow down, improving the pitching staff might be the last step necessary in getting the Braves back to the World Series.
Padres Sign Mason McCoy To Minor League Deal
The Padres have signed shortstop Mason McCoy to a minor league contract, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (via X). The deal contains an invitation for McCoy to attend San Diego’s big league Spring Training camp.
The Blue Jays outrighted McCoy off their 40-man roster in late September, and he became a minor league free agent after the season. Originally a sixth-round pick for the Orioles in the 2017 draft, McCoy is changing teams for the third time in his career, after previous playing with the Mariners and Jays. Seattle dealt McCoy to Toronto in July in exchange for Trent Thornton, and McCoy ended up making his MLB debut, making six appearances as a late-game sub with one plate appearance.
McCoy has hit .257/.330/.393 over 2796 career PA in the minor leagues. Twenty-one of his 51 career homers in the minors came with Seattle’s Triple-A affiliate in 2022, though he was unable to keep that surprising power surge going, and the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League might have played a role in McCoy’s sudden extra pop. McCoy is more of a threat on the basepaths, stealing 90 bases in 106 tries in the minors.
Most of McCoy’s playing time has been at shortstop, though he has seen a lot of work as a second baseman and some action at third base and in left field. With Manny Machado set to miss some time at the start of the year while recovering from elbow surgery, the Padres in need of extra infield depth, so McCoy might have a decent chance to win himself a backup job in Spring Training.
Central Notes: Woodruff, Turnbull, Cardinals
The Brewers parted ways with right-handed ace Brandon Woodruff ahead of the non-tender deadline late last week, making the 30-year-old a free agent for the first time in his career. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic discussed the circumstances under which Woodruff became a free agent and his outlook entering the open market this morning, noting that the Brewers did receive interest from multiple clubs ahead of Friday’s deadline in acquiring Woodruff. The return in such a deal would have been negligible, however, and Rosenthal notes that Milwaukee decided to simply non-tender Woodruff rather than ship him to a team he might not prefer to join in exchange for a minimal return.
Now that the Brewers have allowed Woodruff to hit free agency, Rosenthal notes that the right-hander figures to receive two-year offers on the open market, suggesting that the total guarantee could clock in below the two-year, $30.35MM extension Rays righty Tyler Glasnow inked with the Rays last summer. Though Glasnow was in a somewhat similar situation to Woodruff at the time of the deal, having missed the entire 2022 season to that point due to Tommy John surgery, Glasnow was nearing a return from the procedure when he signed on to a deal that would cover his age-29 and -30 campaigns. Woodruff, by contrast, is expected to miss anywhere between six and eighteen months, per Rosenthal, and would be signing on for his age-31 and -32 campaigns.
More from around MLB’s central divisions…
- Joining Woodruff on the free agent market after being non-tendered by the Tigers is right-hander Spencer Turnbull. Per Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, president of baseball operations tried to trade Turnbull ahead of Friday’s non-tender deadline but was unable to find any takers. The decision to non-tender Turnbull, McCosky notes, comes after a long-running saga of issues between the club’s decision to option Turnbull to Triple-A back in May (a move that was later rescinded due to an at-the-time undisclosed neck injury) and subsequent decision to option him a second time in August while he was working his way back from the neck injury and subsequent toe issue. Tensions between the sides got to the point that McCosky notes Turnbull requested a trade ahead of the trade deadline on August 1 this past summer, though of course no deal wound up occurring back then. Now a free agent, Turnbull figures to be among the more interesting rebound candidates on the rotation market this offseason, given his flashes of success from 2020-21 when he posted a 3.46 ERA and 3.24 FIP across 20 starts.
- While the Cardinals are known to be in the market for multiple starting pitchers and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak referenced discussions he had with right-hander Aaron Nola‘s representation in conversation with Tom Ackerman of KMOX, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that the club’s interest in Nola never reached the point where the club met with the right-hander or made a formal offer prior to him re-signing with the Phillies earlier today. Though Goold notes that other NL clubs were “actively engaged” in attempting to lure Nola away from Philadelphia, he adds that the Cardinals were not among them, despite indications earlier in the offseason that the club would be interested in Nola’s services this winter. While Nola is now off the market, he’s far from the only top-of-the-market pitching free agent the Cardinals have been connected to this offseason, Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray has been connected to St. Louis multiple times so far this offseason, while the club also has reported interested in NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a potential reunion with southpaw Jordan Montgomery.
Kyle Keller Reportedly Drawing Interest From MLB Clubs
Right-hander Kyle Keller is reportedly drawing interest from six major league teams, per Robert Murray of FanSided. Murray adds that Keller, who pitched in Japan the past two seasons, is also drawing interest from NPB clubs.
Keller, 30, was an 18th-round pick by the Marlins in the 2015 draft and pitched in the majors for parts of three seasons, from 2019-21. He recorded 46 1/3 innings of work across the Marlins, Angels, and Pirates organizations during that time, struggling to a 5.83 ERA with a 7.00 FIP. Control problems were the main culprit of Keller’s struggles, as evidenced by his 15% walk rate in the majors. Entering the 2022 campaign, Keller signed on with NPB’s Hanshin Tigers to become the club’s closer.
The righty impressed in that role over two seasons with the Tigers. After posting a strong 2.72 ERA in 49 2/3 innings of work in Japan during the 2022 season, Keller put together an even more impressive season in 2023, with a sterling 1.71 ERA across 26 1/3 frames. He struck out 23.7% of batters faced on the year and has even managed to rein in his control issues during his time overseas, walking just 8.8% of batters faced over the past two seasons.
Given those strong numbers during his time in Japan, it’s easy to see why MLB clubs would have interest in Keller for the 2024 campaign. While a reliever on the wrong side of thirty with a fairly limited NPB track record and previous struggles at the major league level is unlikely to land a significant multi-year deal in the majors, it’s certainly feasible that Keller could find a team willing to roll the dice on a major league contract for his services. Free agent lefty Matt Moore and Diamondbacks right-hander Scott McGough are among the examples of big leaguers who departed MLB for the NPB before returning stateside in recent years.
Phillies Reportedly “Moving Closer” To Re-Signing Aaron Nola
10:36AM: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Phillies and Aaron Nola are “moving closer” on a reunion. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman and MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki also confirmed Nightengale’s report that talks between the sides have heated up in recent days.
9:55AM: The Phillies and right-hander Aaron Nola have both made clear a desire to see the righty ace return to Philadelphia on a long-term deal this offseason, dating back to before Nola was even officially a free agent. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated this morning that there’s reason for optimism regarding a deal coming together between the two sides, noting that contract talks between the sides have “gained significant momentum” in recent days.
That, of course, doesn’t mean that an agreement between the two sides is imminent or even necessarily close, but it’s a notable development nonetheless. After all, it was just last week that reporting from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicated the sides were “not at all close” to a new deal while The Athletic’s Jayson Stark suggested that Phillies may not “go all out” to retain Nola, adding that interest from rival clubs made a seventh year on Nola’s contract possible. That’s a level the Phillies reportedly weren’t willing to go to in extension talks last spring, though it’s possible that the club has changed its tune since then.
Nightengale’s report goes on to suggest that Nola’s camp is seeking a seven-year, $210MM deal while the Phillies have countered with a six-year, $150MM offer at this point. Those price points are substantially closer than the four-to-five year pact that the Phillies reportedly offered Nola last offseason and the eight-year counter from Nola’s camp. That apparent progress in reaching a deal appears all the more encouraging with Nightengale suggesting that the sides are “getting close to finding a middle ground” between the two figures.
With one year and $60MM separating the two offers, there’s plenty of room for the sides to meet somewhere in the middle. Of note, the Phillies’ reported offer to Nola comes in just $12MM under the total guarantee left-hander Carlos Rodon secured from the Yankees last offseason over the same term, meaning virtually any movement from Philadelphia would allow Nola to secure a guarantee above that of Rodon. Speculatively speaking, the Phillies could offer Nola a higher AAV than Rodon over the same term if they’re unwilling to offer a seven-year deal to Nola, who will celebrate his 31st birthday next summer. Such a deal could fall in the $168MM to $180MM range in terms of total guarantee.
A seven-year pact would see Nola turn 37 in the final year of the deal. That’s an age the Phillies have shown a willingness to sign position players through: superstar first baseman Bryce Harper and marquee shortstop Trea Turner are signed through their age-38 and -40 seasons, respectively. That being said, the club hasn’t shown the same appetite for deals that would take pitchers into their late thirties. Zack Wheeler signed with the club on a five-year deal to become Nola’s co-ace in the Phillies rotation, though that deal will see him hit the open market next offseason following his age-34 campaign. That’s the same age former Phillies lefty Cole Hamels was signed through when he extended with the club back in 2012.
Even a six-year pact would be breaking new ground for the Phillies; while the club signed Hall of Famer Roy Halladay through his age-36 season, that deal was for just three years and $60MM. That’s a far cry from the nine-figure deal Nola figures to land. What’s more, any movement from the Phillies’ current price point of six years and $150MM would take Nola’s contract above what MLBTR projected for the right-hander in our annual Top 50 free agents list.
Despite all of this, it’s easy to see why the Phillies would make such a plunge to retain Nola’s services. Nola’s spent nine years with the club serving as a homegrown ace since his debut with the club back in 2015. In that time, he’s compiled a career 3.72 ERA (113 ERA+) and 3.38 FIP with a 27.2% strikeout rate. Since his breakout 2018 campaign where he earned his first career All Star appearance and finished third in NL Cy Young award voting, Nola has been even more impressive with a 3.65 ERA and 28% strikeout rate. On top of that quality production, Nola is among the most durable pitchers in the entire sport: he’s thrown more than 180 innings and made at least 32 starts in each of the last five 162-game seasons. Only Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings since the start of the 2018 campaign, while only Cole, Wheeler, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom have accumulated more fWAR than Nola’s 25.5 figure since then.
Should Nola and the Phillies ultimately come together on a new contract, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has previously indicated that the club’s starting rotation will be set for the 2024 campaign, likely taking Philadelphia out of the rotation market for the rest of the offseason. If a deal between the sides doesn’t get done, however, the club figures to be aggressive in looking to replace Nola with NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto among the club’s reported hypothetical targets. Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray are among the other potential top-of-the-rotation arms to be had on the free agent market, though Stark reports the club is “lukewarm” on Snell. The trade market could hold other alternatives to Nola for the Phils, such as Brewers ace Corbin Burnes or White Sox righty Dylan Cease.
Dietrich Enns To Sign With KBO’s LG Twins
Former big league left-hander Dietrich Enns is finalizing a deal with the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization, per Dan Kurtz of My KBO. The terms of the contract are not yet known.
Enns, 32, was selected by the Yankees in the 19th-round of the draft back in 2012. Enns was swapped to the Twins in 2017 and made his major league debut that same year, though he struggled to a 6.75 ERA in just four innings of work. The lefty spent the next several seasons in the minor leagues, bouncing between the Twins, Padres, and Rays organizations before returning to the big leagues in 2021 with Tampa Bay. Enns found more success with the Rays that season, pitching well in multi-inning relief. In 22 1/3 innings of work across nine appearances, Enns posted a 2.82 ERA with an even stronger 2.32 FIP, striking out 28.4% of batters faced while walking just 6.8%.
Despite that strong performance in 2021, Enns was unable to secure a big league role for the 2022 season and instead departed for a role overseas, joining the Seibu Lions of Japan’s NPB. Enns pitched very well for the Lions in his first NPB season, with a 2.94 ERA in 122 1/3 innings of work across 22 starts. Unfortunately, that success did not carry over to 2023 as the lefty struggled to a 5.17 ERA in just 54 innings of work.
Still, Enns’s success in both the majors in 2021 and NPB in 2022 make him an interesting addition to the Twins, who Kim Geun-han of MK Sports indicates hope that Enns can replace five-year MLB veteran Adam Plutko on the club’s pitching staff for the 2024 campaign. Plutko, for his part, is hoping to return to stateside ball this offseason after posting a 2.49 ERA across 49 starts in Korea the past two seasons.