Padres Non-Tender Austin Nola, Three Others
The Padres announced the non-tenders of catcher Austin Nola, outfielder Taylor Kohlwey and pitchers Tim Hill and Jose Espada.
Nola’s non-tender marks the end of a three-and-a-half-year tenure in San Diego. The Friars picked him up alongside Dan Altavilla and Austin Adams in a now clearly lopsided (in the other direction) swap that sent a four-player package of Ty France, Andres Munoz, Luis Torrens and Taylor Trammell to the Mariners back in 2020. At the time, Nola had been an unmitigated steal for the Mariners in free agency, signing a minor league contract and coming out of nowhere to deliver a .280/.351/.476 batting line in 377 plate appearances while playing catcher, first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners.
Nola’s production almost immediately took a nosedive following the swap, however, and in 819 career plate appearances with the Padres he’s a .234/.314/.320 hitter — including a particularly woeful .146/.260/.192 slash in 154 plate appearances this past season. (France and Munoz, meanwhile, have gone on to become key players for a rebuild Mariners roster, although the former struggled himself in 2023.)
With Nola projected for a $2.35MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), the Padres cutting payroll, and fellow catcher Luis Campusano breaking out to the tune of a .319/.356/.491 batting line in 49 games, Nola no longer had a clear fit in the organization. He’ll turn 34 next month and look to latch on with new club between now and Opening Day.
Hill, also 33, has built a quietly solid track record over a six-year career between the Royals and Padres, though he stumbled to a career-worst 5.48 ERA in 44 1/3 frames this past season. Hill’s 2023 included a lowly 12.9% strikeout rate, although his 6.9% walk rate and particularly his 61.2% grounder rate were both strong marks.
From 2019-22, Hill totaled 165 1/3 innings of 3.70 ERA ball between Kansas City and San Diego, fanning 20.2% of his opponents against an 8.1% walk rate and superlative 58.9% ground-ball rate. He’s long had rather glaring platoon splits, however, making him a victim of the rule that stipulated pitchers must face at least three opponents per outing (or finish the inning). Hill has held opposing lefties to a dreary .223/.302/.304 batting line in his career but yielded an unsightly .284/.351/.460 slash against right-handers. He’ll hit the market in search of a rebound opportunity, likely on a one-year contract or minor league deal.
Kohlwey, 29, made his big league debut this season and went 2-for-13 with a pair of singles. The former 21st-round pick is a career .296/.387/.444 hitter in parts of four Triple-A seasons. The 26-year-old Espada pitched a scoreless inning for the Padres in his MLB debut in 2023. They plucked him out of indie ball in 2022, and he notched a 2.81 ERA with a big 31.4% strikeout rate but a concerning 12.8% walk rate in 83 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this season. Both players will look for new opportunities as minor league free agents.
Cardinals Non-Tender Dakota Hudson
7:10pm: The Cardinals have announced that Hudson has been non-tendered, leaving him set to hit the open market where he’ll be able to sign with any of MLB’s 30 clubs.
4:29pm: The Cardinals are shopping right-hander Dakota Hudson “pretty hard” this afternoon ahead of today’s non-tender deadline, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Feinsand also suggests that St. Louis’s aggressiveness on Hudson could indicate the club views him as a non-tender candidate.
Hudson, 29, is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz for $3.7MM this offseason in his penultimate trip through arbitration. The right-hander made his MLB debut back in 2018 and managed to get quality mid-rotation results through the first three seasons of his career, with a 3.17 ERA (131 ERA+) in 217 innings of work from 2018-20. That success came in spite of some shaky peripheral numbers that undercut the otherwise strong performance; Hudson struck out just 18.1% of batters faced while walking 11.6% during those years, leaving him with an unsightly 4.74 FIP in spite of an excellent 57.3% groundball rate.
Things took a turn for the worse for Hudson late in the 2020 campaign, however, when he was sidelined by Tommy John surgery. The injury would limit him to just 8 2/3 innings of work in 2021. While he returned as a regular member of the Cardinals rotation in 2022, his results had fallen back to Earth as he posted a mediocre 4.45 ERA (88 ERA+) in 139 2/3 innings of work, with a 10.1% walk rate that nearly matched his 13.1% strikeout rate. Only Zack Greinke struck out a lower percentage of batters among pitchers with at least 100 innings of work that year, while Hudson’s K-BB of just 2.9% was dead last.
While the Cardinals tendered Hudson a contract for the 2023 campaign, he was largely relegated to a depth option in the minor leagues despite the club struggling to field a viable rotation throughout much of the year. While he missed a month early in the season due to a neck issue, 11 of his 23 total starts in 2023 were made for the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Memphis, with whom he struggled to a 6.00 ERA in 48 innings of work. His 4.98 ERA in 81 1/3 innings of work at the big league level, while an improvement, was still 12% worse than league average by measure of ERA+. It’s worth noting that Hudson flashed a more serviceable form when pitching out of the bullpen in the majors this year, with a walk rate below 10% and a 3.86 ERA across 16 1/3 innings of work in six multi-inning relief outings.
Though Hudson has considerable success in his past as a big league starter and showed flashes of quality out of the bullpen this year, it’s not clear whether a team would be interested in parting with much of value for the opportunity to tender him a contract this winter. After all, the Cardinals themselves are among the teams most hungry for starting pitching options in the league at the moment. That being said, it wouldn’t be a shock to see a pitching-needy club work out a trade for Hudson, as the Rockies did for righty Cal Quantrill earlier today. If Hudson finds himself non-tendered by the Cardinals this evening, he could draw interest as a low-cost depth option on a market with plenty of demand for pitching.
Brewers To Non-Tender Rowdy Tellez
The Brewers are planning to non-tender first baseman Rowdy Tellez, reports Robert Murray of Fansided. Tellez was projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz for a $5.9MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this offseason.
The 28-year-old Tellez smacked a career-high 35 home runs for the 2022 Brewers but was unable to replicate that production at the plate in 2023. This past season saw the slugger turn in a career-worst .215/.291/.376 batting line with just 13 home runs — a stark decline from the prior year’s offensive output.
Perhaps the Brewers might’ve been willing to give him another chance or find a trade partner if Tellez were a standout defender, but the 6’4″, 270-pound slugger is limited to first base and designated hitter only and draws below-average marks for his glovework. Tellez also generally requires a platoon partner; he hit just .174/.269/.261 against left-handers this year and owns a tepid .236/.308/.386 batting line in 438 career plate appearances versus same-handed opponents.
As his 2022 campaign showed, Tellez has the capability to be a source of booming power in the middle of a lineup, but his margin for error is rather slight, given the lack of defensive versatility and on-base issues. Now that he’s a free agent, a club with openings at first base and/or designated hitter and in the market for some low-cost power upside figures to take a look.
Mets To Non-Tender Daniel Vogelbach
The Mets are planning to non-tender left-handed slugger Daniel Vogelbach, reports Mike Puma from the New York Post. Vogelbach, 31 next month, slashed .233/.339/.404 in 104 games with the Mets this year and was projected for $2.6MM in his final trip through arbitration by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz. He’ll now hit free agency and be eligible to sign with any of MLB’s 30 clubs.
A second-round pick by the Cubs in the 2011 draft, Vogelbach made his MLB debut with the Mariners back in 2016, though he wouldn’t receive consistent playing time at the big league level until 2019. He was an All-Star for Seattle that year, slashing .208/.341/.439 with 30 homers in 558 trips to the plate. Vogelbach split his shortened 2020 campaign between the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Brewers before settling in with Milwaukee in a part-time role for the 2021 season.
After slashing an essentially league average .215/.343/.385 (101 wRC+) with 15 homers in 394 plate appearances from 2020-21, Vogelbach signed with the Pirates on a big league deal for the 2022 season. He hit fairly with the Pirates (116 wRC+) but really took off after a midseason trade to the Mets, for whom he slashed .255/.393/.436 (143 wRC+) in 183 trips to the plate down the stretch as a part-time DH. Vogelbach returned to Queens in that same role for 2023 but failed to replicate his 2022 production in the role with a wRC+ of just 104.
Vogelbach will enter the free agent market as a quality bench piece or part-time slugger for a club at first base or DH, though his glovework at first is generally regarded as questionable. While Vogelbach possesses a strong .240/.362/.452 slash line against right-handed pitchers for his career, same-handed pitching has crushed him during his time in the majors; he’s hit just .129/.248/.215 in 189 career games against southpaws, meaning any acquiring club would almost assuredly not be interested in Vogelbach for an everyday role.
Reds To Non-Tender Nick Senzel
The Reds are non-tendering Nick Senzel, tweets Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The former #2 overall pick had posted a farewell message to the organization on Instagram this evening.
Cincinnati selected the Tennessee product with the second pick in the 2016 draft. The right-handed hitter posted strong minor league numbers and was a consensus top prospect preceding his 2019 debut. Senzel never found consistent success against big league pitchers, though. Over parts of five seasons, he owns a .239/.302/.369 batting line.
Senzel spent the 2022 campaign as the Reds primary center fielder. Cincinnati hoped that a move back to his natural third base position would help him find another level offensively. While Senzel started the year hitting well, particularly against left-handed pitching, he encountered a slump in June. He finished the season with a .236/.297/.399 line with 13 homers across 330 MLB plate appearances.
The Reds briefly sent Senzel back to Triple-A in the second half. He finished the year in the majors but always seemed a likely non-tender. The Reds have a number of talented younger infield options, with Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte taking a lot of reps on the left side. That didn’t leave much room for Senzel, whom MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for a $3MM salary if tendered a contract.
A non-tender sends a player directly to free agency without being placed on waivers. The 28-year-old can now explore opportunities with other teams. Senzel’s status as a former top prospect and career .286/.334/.459 line with the platoon advantage could find him a big league deal elsewhere. The Nationals, A’s, Royals, Diamondbacks and Tigers stand out as speculative candidates for a flier on a third baseman.
A’s Claim Michael Kelly, Sign Daz Cameron To Minors Deal
The A’s announced this evening that the club has claimed right-hander Michael Kelly off waivers from the Guardians. In addition, the club announced that they have signed outfielder Daz Cameron to a minor league contract that includes an invitation to Spring Training.
Kelly, 31, was designated for assignment by the Guardians earlier this week. A first-round pick by the Padres during the 2011 draft, Kelly has spent most of his career as a minor league journeyman. He spent the first several seasons of his career with San Diego before departing for the Orioles organization in 2018. He spent the 2019 season pitching in independent ball before returning to affiliated ball in 2021 with the Astros. After spending 2022 with the Phillies and 2023 in Cleveland, Kelly is now on to his fourth organization in as many seasons.
Kelly has performed fairly well in limited chances at the big league level, with a career 3.48 ERA and 3.52 FIP across 20 2/3 innings of work out of the bullpen with the Phillies and Guardians. He owns a solid 23% strikeout rate during that time, but pairs it with a worrisome 11.5% walk rate. Kelly’s issues with the free pass extend to his work at Triple-A, where he’s walked 11.7% of batters faced across six seasons. He owns a 4.69 ERA in that time, though that figure was a far more palatable 3.58 in 37 2/3 innings of work at the level this year.
As for Cameron, the 26-year-old outfielder was a first-round pick by the Astros in the 2015 draft. After heading to Detroit as part of the return in the Justin Verlander trade, Cameron played in parts of three seasons for the Tigers from 2020-22, accumulating a slash line of just .201/.266/.330 across 244 big league plate appearances during that time. Cameron played for the Orioles at the Triple-A level this season and did fairly well for himself, slashing .268/.346/.452 in 446 trips to the plate for what was the best full-season performance at the level of his career. The A’s currently project to utilize Esteury Ruiz, Seth Brown, and JJ Bleday in the outfield entering next season. That outfield mix leaves plenty of opportunities for Cameron to break camp with the team should his performance this spring warrant it.
Royals Designate Austin Cox For Assignment
The Royals announced this afternoon that they have designated left-hander Austin Cox for assignment. Cox’s departure from the 40-man roster makes room for the club’s acquisition of right-hander Nick Anderson from the Braves in a cash deal earlier today, which the Royals have now officially announced.
Cox, 26, was a fifth-round pick by Kansas City in the 2018 draft. The left-hander impressed in his full-season debut with the organization in 2019, pitching to a 2.76 ERA with a 24.1% strikeout rate across 130 2/3 innings of work split between Single-A and High-A. Unfortunately, the momentum Cox built up over that strong campaign screeched to a halt with the cancelled minor league season in 2020. Cox’s results upon returning to professional play in 2021 were somewhat mixed. Though he did well in his first taste of the Double-A level with a 3.00 ERA in 63 innings of work with a 21.5% strikeout rate, he struggled badly in a brief, two-appearance stint at Triple-A where he surrendered 10 runs on nine hits and five walks across five innings, striking out just four.
Those Triple-A struggles continued into the 2022 campaign, where Cox saw his strikeout rate plummet to just 16.2% across 147 1/3 innings of work at the level while his ERA ballooned up to 4.10. Things seemed to be looking up for Cox in 2023 as he posted a solid 3.61 ERA at the Triple-A level this year while getting his first cup of coffee in the big leagues, but his 2023 season was cut short in September when he suffered a full ACL tear and partial MCL injury that ultimately required surgery. That surgery, which figures to keep him out of action for much of the 2024 season, surely played a role in the club’s decision to designate Cox for assignment.
Going forward, the Royals will have one week to either work out a trade for Cox or expose him to the waiver wire. If he passes through waivers unclaimed, the club will have the opportunity to assign him outright to the minor leagues. Cox has not previously been outrighted in his career and lacks the necessary service time to reject the assignment and depart for free agency.
Brewers Acquire Jake Bauers From Yankees
The Brewers have acquired infielder/outfielder Jake Bauers from the Yankees, per announcements from both clubs. Minor league outfielders Jace Avina and Brian Sanchez are headed to the Yanks in return.
Bauers, 28, signed a minor league deal with the Yanks prior to the 2023 season and ended up getting into 84 big league games on the year. He struck out in 34.9% of his plate appearances but walked at a 9.9% clip and hit 12 home runs. His final batting line of .202/.279/.413 translated to a wRC+ of 89. He’s out of options and has qualified for arbitration for the first time, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $1.7MM next year. Tonight is the deadline for clubs to decide whether or not to tender contracts to arb-eligible players and it seems the Yanks preferred to exchange Bauers for some prospects as opposed to making him part of the 2024 club.
Though the results weren’t outstanding in 2023, Bauers has generally hit well in the minors and has continued to intrigue clubs around the league. Drafted by the Padres back in 2013, he was traded to the Rays as part of the Wil Myers deal, with Tampa later flipping him to Cleveland in the three-team deal that also involved Edwin Encarnación, Carlos Santana and Yandy Díaz. Bauers was dealt a third time, going to the Mariners in 2021, but couldn’t thrive at the big league level with any club.
He has hit .211/.302/.361 in his career as a major leaguer but has a much more impressive line of .257/.363/.438 at Triple-A. The Brewers will be the latest club to take a chance on him finally putting it together at the big league level, perhaps as a Rowdy Tellez replacement. Tellez hit just .215/.291/.376 this year and is projected to make $5.9MM in his final arbitration year, making him a speculative non-tender candidate. With Bauers projected at less than a third of of that price and also having two more seasons of club control, the Brewers are taking a bet that he will be better value for money.
The tender deadline is at 7 pm Central tonight, so the Brewers still have a few hours to work out a trade of Tellez or decide whether to keep him around. In addition to first base, Bauers has also played some corner outfield. That perhaps allows them both to fit on the roster but the club is fairly loaded with outfield options, having Christian Yelich, Tyrone Taylor, Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Blake Perkins, with prospect Jackson Chourio charging hard towards a major league debut.
In exchange for a player that likely wasn’t in their plans anyway, the Yanks will add a couple of pieces to their farm system, both long-term plays. Avina, who turns 21 in June, spent 2023 in Single-A. He hit .233/.373/.442 at that level for a wRC+ of 134. Sanchez is just 19 and was in the Dominican Summer League this year, hitting .297/.414/.446 for a wRC+ of 129. Neither are Rule 5 eligible at this point and won’t need a 40-man roster spot for the time being.
Pete Alonso Looking To Surpass Recent Deals For Top First Basemen
The relationship between the Mets and Pete Alonso has a ticking clock on it, with the slugging first baseman now less than a year away from free agency. There have been plenty of rumors about the possibilities of a trade or an extension, though neither has come to fruition thus far. This week, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that Alonso’s requests in extension talks have surpassed the recent contracts for other first basemen from recent years. Meanwhile, Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that the Cubs continue to have interest and would be willing to make Christopher Morel part of the return package.
Alonso’s appeal is obvious as he has been one of the best power bats in the majors since his 2019 debut. He has hit between 37 and 53 home runs in each full season of his career and 16 more in the shortened 2020 campaign. His 192 long balls since the start of 2019 are easily the most in baseball, with Matt Olson second at 177. Overall, Alonso has hit .251/.342/.528 for a wRC+ of 133. Reviews on his glovework are mixed, with Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average considering him to be subpar, though Defensive Runs Saved disagrees. Regardless, his bat is potent enough that he’s plenty valuable even without strong work in the field.
That Alonso is looking to get a contract “much bigger” than the top first base contracts of recent years, per Passan, is fairly logical given his output. The last decade saw some mammoth deals for first basemen but recent years have seen a softening. Miguel Cabrera got an extension of $248MM from the Tigers, topping the $240MM and $214MM earned by free agents Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, respectively. But that Cabrera deal was in 2014, whereas the latter two deals were going into 2012.
Since that time, the two biggest guarantees for first basemen went to Olson and Freddie Freeman. Olson signed an eight-year, $168MM extension with Atlanta when he was still two years away from free agency. Back in February, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at Alonso as an extension candidate and noted the similarities between them at the time. But since then, Alonso has moved one year closer to the open market. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to get a salary of $22MM in his final arbitration season. Players generally increase their earning power as they move closer to free agency, which give Alonso an argument for going past Olson at this point.
Freeman got his six-year, $162MM deal on the open market, but going into his age-32 season. He can’t match Alonso’s power but has generally had better batting averages and on-base percentages, in addition to a stronger defensive reputation. But Alonso is slated to reach free agency ahead of his age-30 campaign, making him two years younger than when Freeman went to the Dodgers.
All this suggests Alonso and agent Scott Boras are setting their sights on something in the $200MM range. It’s unclear if the Mets have any interest in meeting that asking price but it also doesn’t appear they are being pushed into a trade. President of baseball operations David Stearns has said multiple times that he expects Alonso to be the club’s Opening Day first baseman next year. “I don’t draw lines in the sand,” Stearns said last week. “And I’m never gonna say never. But I absolutely think it’s fair that I don’t anticipate him being traded.”
If the Mets were to consider a trade, the Cubs continue to have interest, per Rogers. The two clubs reportedly discussed Alonso at the deadline last year and the Cubs still don’t have an obvious solution at first base. Matt Mervis continued to hit well in Triple-A, slashing .282/.399/.533 this year, but his first 99 plate appearances in the majors led to a line of just .167/.242/.289. The Cubs could give him another shot but they may prefer a more established player like Alonso.
It was recently reported that Morel is getting some work at first base in winter ball, which gives them another option there, but a trade of Morel also seems to be on the table. He has struck out at a 31.6% clip in his first 854 plate appearances but the power is real, launching 42 home runs in that time. The problem is defense, with Morel generally considered not a great fit for shortstop, third base or the outfield. Moving to first might be a decent compromise, but it would be a waste of his strong throwing arm, which Statcast places in the 99th percentile.
Morel has posted decent results at second base but the Cubs have a middle infield of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner. Hoyer recently stated that “another team might be able to put him” at second, which perhaps suggests Morel is more valuable to the Cubs as a trade chip than anything else and this report from Rogers suggests that may indeed be their thinking.
The Mets have Jeff McNeil as their most likely option at the keystone, though he’s also capable of playing third base or an outfield corner, so perhaps they would have some interest in Morel. Giving up on a fan favorite like Alonso would be a tough pill to swallow but Morel is cheaper, having not yet reached arbitration, and still has five years of club control. It would leave the club with a hole at first base though they could perhaps try Mark Vientos there or acquire a cheap free agent stopgap. Prospect Ryan Clifford, acquired in the Justin Verlander trade, could be a future option at that spot but he’s yet to crack Double-A. Putting Morel at second could block Ronny Mauricio but he didn’t hit the ground running in his first major league action and could also move over to third base and battle Brett Baty for playing time. Luisangel Acuña, acquired in the Max Scherzer trade, could be an option at the keystone in the future but has yet to reach Triple-A to this point.
All this is speculative and there’s still nothing to suggest the Mets like Morel or even want to move Alonso. But they will likely have to make some kind of decision at some point. If they don’t trade Alonso now or at the 2024 trade deadline, they would be left to make him a qualifying offer at season’s end and collect a compensation pick. But since they are likely to pay the luxury tax yet again, that pick would be between the fourth and fifth round of the draft, surely far less appealing than whatever they could get in a trade. But with Steve Cohen’s unprecedented spending in recent years, it also wouldn’t be a shock to see Alonso locked up for an extended stay in Queens.
Royals Acquire Nick Anderson
The Royals have acquired right-hander Nick Anderson from the Braves, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (X links). The Braves will receive cash considerations in return.
Anderson is arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter, and is projected to earn $1.6MM in 2024. The deal removes yet another player from the Braves’ arbitration class, which is now down to six players from 13 at the start of the offseason. Since Anderson was a non-tender candidate anyway, the trade allows Atlanta to at least collect a small fee rather than lose the righty for nothing by cutting him prior to tonight’s 7pm CT non-tender deadline.
Best known for his two outstanding years as a bullpen weapon for the Marlins and Rays, Anderson posted great numbers in 2019-20, before running out of gas late in Tampa’s run to the 2020 World Series. The righty was never quite the same again, as injuries cost him essentially all of the next two seasons. Anderson threw just six innings in 2021 before a UCL injury put him on the shelf, and an internal brace procedure in his right elbow was eventually required. Between this surgery and then a bout of plantar fasciitis, Anderson didn’t see any big league action during the 2022 campaign.
It was just over a year ago that the Rays waived Anderson, only for the Braves to sign him to a split contract. The good news is that Anderson was able to return to a Major League mound, and he was pretty effective in posting a 3.06 ERA over 35 1/3 innings and 35 appearances, along with a 25.5% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate. Unfortunately, injuries again sidelined the 33-year-old, as he missed over two months due to a shoulder strain and made only three minor league appearances after July 7. Even at a pretty modest arbitration salary, Anderson was deemed expendable by the Braves.
Matt Quatraro was a coach with the Rays during Anderson’s tenure in Tampa Bay, so the Royals manager is very familiar with what Anderson can do when healthy. Even the righty’s 2023 numbers indicated that he still has some of his old magic still in the tank, and for a Kansas City team in need of bullpen help, adding Anderson is a relatively inexpensive bet the Royals are willing to make. Since the Royals might be out of contention again next season, Anderson might also be an intriguing trade chip to be flipped at the deadline, particularly since he is controllable through the 2025 season.