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The Opener: Padres, Adell, Tigers

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For the final time in 2022, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day today:

1. Looking for a partner in a Grisham deal

A report yesterday suggested the Padres may be open to moving either center fielder Trent Grisham or Ha-Seong Kim. After adding Xander Bogaerts and Matt Carpenter to their already considerable corps of position player talent, and with Fernando Tatis Jr. on the way back from suspension early in the 2023 season, it’s no wonder that the Padres would at least consider dealing a player like Grisham or Kim if they could improve the big league club in other areas by doing so. While Kim would surely draw interest from infield-needy clubs, Grisham likely has more value thanks to an extra year of team control and being a quality center field option in a market devoid of options at the position. Perhaps the most obvious fit for Grisham is the Marlins, who have a deep starting rotation they’re reportedly open to dealing from. A starter such as Pablo Lopez or Trevor Rogers would allow the Padres to push either Seth Lugo or Nick Martinez into the bullpen, improving both sides of the pitching staff in doing so. From Miami’s perspective, Grisham would offer them a true Center Fielder who would free up Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez to join Avisail Garcia, Jorge Soler, and Jon Berti in the mix in the outfield corners and at DH. Grisham would also provide a different look to pitchers as a lefty hitter in a predominantly right-handed lineup, and his bat has upside should he rediscover his 2020-21 form at the plate (111 OPS+ in 191 games). Getting more creative, one potential fit for Grisham would be the Yankees, who are known to be looking for a lefty hitting outfielder. Grisham, as a gold glove Center Fielder, should have no trouble patrolling left in Yankee Stadium, and would combine with Harrison Bader and Aaron Judge to form the likely best defensive outfield in all of baseball. While adding Grisham certainly makes sense for New York, nailing down a trade return isn’t as simple as it would be in a deal with Miami. Perhaps they could package Frankie Montas, who struggled badly after a trade to New York last season, with a member of their excess position player depth such as Gleyber Torres or Oswaldo Cabrera? These surely aren’t the only two teams who would be interested in adding a player with Grisham’s combination of talent and team control, however, leaving the possibility of a deal as something to be monitored as the calendar flips to 2023.

2. What will the Angels do with Adell?

Jo Adell was once among the most promising prospects in the game, but after three consecutive seasons of struggling in his opportunities at the major league level, he appears to be in danger of being pushed off the roster in Anaheim entirely. Taylor Ward and Hunter Renfroe are poised to start in the outfield corners on either side of Mike Trout on Opening Day 2023, and with Shohei Ohtani locking up the DH slot, it seems that Adell will be relegated to competing for fourth outfielder duties with Mickey Moniak this spring. Between this situation and the fact that Adell has already had roughly a full season’s worth of plate appearances with the Angels (557 PA), it would be understandable if the club decided a change of scenery was the best thing for both sides, particularly if the Angels could deal him to fill one of their remaining needs. While there aren’t any glaring holes remaining on the club, they could certainly benefit from adding another starter who could push Jose Suarez into a swing role, a late-inning reliever to join Carlos Estevez at the back of the bullpen, or a more surefire shortstop than their currently available options of Luis Rengifo, Gio Urshela, and David Fletcher. On the other hand, given Adell still has a minor league option remaining, it’s possible the club could be content stashing him in Triple-A as depth to protect against the injury woes that have so frequently plagued the Angels in recent years.

3. What will the Tigers do from here?

The Tigers came into the 2022 season as a trendy wild card pick, but had a deeply disappointing season that featured a brutal 66-96 record and long-term injuries to promising youngsters Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal. This left Detroit in a curious position to begin the offseason, and new president of baseball operations Scott Harris hasn’t made the club’s direction clear going forward his transactions thusfar; short-term deals for Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen, and a trade of reliever Joe Jimenez to the Braves are the biggest moves out of Detroit so far this offseason. Perhaps part of the quietness on the transaction front is due to the fact that, given the under-performance of almost the entire position player corps, there’s little in the way of obvious holes in the roster outside of third base, where Jeimer Candelario was non-tendered earlier this offseason. Bringing in a bat to replace Candelario seems sensible, whether that comes through free agency, where Evan Longoria is the top option remaining, or through trade, where Joey Wendle, Eduardo Escobar, and Ramon Urias are among the names who could be available. Looking beyond the hot corner, the club could add one of the complementary outfielders still remaining on the market such as AJ Pollock or David Peralta; while they might not be surefire upgrades over the current group, they could still pitch in to raise the team’s floor. Additions to the bullpen mix to solidify the group could also make sense, though Alex Lange and Gregory Soto seems capable of handling late-inning duties. Another possible direction for the Tigers would be to sell of short-term assets such as Austin Meadows in order to improve the club’s longer-term outlook while waiting for Skubal and Mize to return to make another push toward contention.

Padres Open To Trade Offers On Trent Grisham, Ha-Seong Kim

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The Padres have had another significant offseason, adding Xander Bogaerts on an 11-year megadeal and bringing in Matt Carpenter via two-year guarantee. Those players lengthen a lineup that already had plenty of talent, with Bogaerts in particular building on an existing area of strength.

San Diego certainly didn’t need another infielder. Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth would’ve made for an effective pairing up the middle, while Manny Machado has third base secured. Fernando Tatis Jr. will be back from his performance-enhancing drug suspension by the end of April and was already expected to see plenty of outfield work in deference to Kim and Cronenworth. As things stand, the Bogaerts signing pushes Kim to second base and Cronenworth over to first while keeping Tatis in the outfield on most days.

That overflow of up-the-middle talent is an enviable “problem” to have, as it affords them the ability to turn to the trade market. To that end, Dennis Lin of the Athletic reports the Padres are open to discussions on both Kim and center fielder Trent Grisham. Lin adds the organization isn’t interested in parting with Cronenworth and suggests a deal involving Grisham might be more likely than one than sends Kim elsewhere.

Grisham has spent the last three years in San Diego. Acquired from the Brewers in the deal that sent Luis Urías and Eric Lauer to Milwaukee over the 2019-20 offseason, he immediately stepped in as the Friars primary center fielder. Grisham had a great first season, collecting 10 home runs and stolen bases apiece with a .251/.352/.456 line while playing in 59 of the 60 games during the shortened 2020 campaign. He looked like a budding star, but his offense has regressed in the past couple seasons.

The lefty hitter put up a .242/.327/.413 slash in 2021, with that production checking in right around league average. He took another step back this past season, posting a .184/.284/.341 mark through 524 trips to the plate. Grisham connected on 17 longballs and walked at a robust 10.9% clip but had the worst batting average of any hitter with at least 500 plate appearances. While there’s some amount of misfortune in the meager .231 average on balls in play he mustered, there were also plenty of worrisome underlying indicators.

Grisham struck out in 28.6% of his plate appearances, the worst clip of his career. Only Randal Grichuk had a lower line drive rate than Grisham’s 13.5% mark (minimum 500 PA’s) and his hard contact percentage was middle-of-the-pack. A left-handed pull hitter, Grisham could stand to benefit somewhat from the forthcoming shift limitations, but it’s not likely to be all that significant a boost unless he trims his strikeouts and/or improves his contact profile.

To his credit, the 26-year-old remained a valuable part of the San Diego lineup even during a disappointing offensive year. Grisham played more than 1100 innings in center field and earned a second career Gold Glove for his work. Defensive Runs Saved credited him as eight runs better than average, while Statcast pegged him as 12 runs above par. Grisham’s glove has been a plus throughout his career, as he combines excellent speed with quality reads and solid arm strength.

Despite the career-worst offensive season, Grisham would have a decent amount of value on the trade market. His defense raises his floor and he’s shown prior glimpses of quality work at the plate. With three seasons of remaining arbitration control and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a modest $2.6MM salary next year, he’d have plenty of appeal in a market starved for quality center field options. There are no remaining free agent center fielders who’d likely play every day on a contender. The trade market is similarly without many obvious candidates. The Royals would listen to offers on Michael A. Taylor and the Twins are known to be open to dealing Max Kepler. Bryan Reynolds requested a trade from Pittsburgh, but the Pirates have maintained they won’t budge off a lofty asking price.

Teams like the Red Sox, Rockies, Rangers, Reds and Marlins are among the clubs that have sought center field help. That’s also true of the Dodgers, though it’s hard to imagine San Diego trading anyone to their chief competitors in the NL West. Lin relays that San Diego has interest in Marlins starter Pablo López and speculates the Friars could look to market Grisham to Miami in a deal for rotation help, though there’s no indication the sides have actually had those discussions to this point.

Kim should have even stronger trade appeal, as he’s coming off a better offensive season. After struggling in his first MLB campaign, the former KBO star hit .251/.325/.383 across 582 plate appearances in year two. Kim picked up 11 homers and 29 doubles while striking out in only 17.2% of his plate appearances. He also stole 12 bases in 14 attempts.

Like Grisham, Kim provides sizable value on the defensive side. Pressed into primary shortstop duty by Tatis’ injuries and suspension, the 27-year-old looked like a Gold Glove-caliber middle infielder. DRS credited him as 10 runs above average in a little less than 1100 shortstop innings, while Statcast estimated him as five runs better than average. Kim had also rated as a plus defender at second and third base during the 2021 campaign.

Upon making the jump from South Korea during the 2020-21 offseason, Kim landed a four-year, $25MM guarantee. He’s due a modest $17MM over the next two seasons (including a buyout on a 2025 mutual option) and is slated to head back to free agency following the ’24 campaign. That’s excellent value for a player coming a season as strong as Kim’s and in his prime years.

As with center field, the middle infield market has dried up considerably at this stage of the offseason. Assuming Carlos Correa finalizes a deal with the Mets, the top remaining free agents are Elvis Andrus and players like Hanser Alberto and José Iglesias. Obvious trade possibilities are again sparse. Players like Amed Rosario, Jorge Mateo or Nick Madrigal could be dealt but aren’t necessarily likely to move. Boston, Atlanta, Minnesota, the Angels and the White Sox are among the teams that could seek out upgrades at one of the middle infield spots.

There’s no urgency for San Diego to deal either Grisham or Kim, of course. Both players are affordable and currently penciled into everyday roles. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller acknowledged as much last week, telling Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic the team’s “intention” was to retain their current position player group thanks to “the flexibility and the versatility it gives our team.” Lin’s report suggests they’re not completely committed to that course of action, though, at least if offered a chance to upgrade elsewhere on the roster.

The back of the rotation is something of a question mark, with Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo slated for the fourth and fifth spots behind Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Yu Darvish. Only Musgrove is guaranteed to be around beyond next season; Snell and Darvish will be free agents at the end of the year, and Martinez and Lugo could opt out of their multi-year deals (although only if the team first declines a two-year option in Martinez’s case). The club could also consider ways to upgrade at catcher or add another bat to the corner outfield/first base mix.

The organization’s farm system has thinned considerably in recent seasons as they’ve packaged a lot of their depth for impact trade acquisitions, perhaps leading them to be more amenable to deal from the MLB roster in the right circumstance. Young catcher Luis Campusano would seem to be a candidate for such a move on paper considering his strong prospect pedigree, but Lin relays that trade interest in the 24-year-old isn’t especially strong at this point.

Blue Jays, Julian Fernandez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays are signing reliever Julian Fernández to a minor league contract, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link). He’ll add some hard-throwing bullpen depth to the upper minors.

Fernández has over two years of major league service, but virtually all of that was spent on the injured list. The Giants took the righty out of the Rockies organization in the 2017 Rule 5 draft. He suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery before he could throw a pitch for San Francisco and spent the entire following season on the MLB injured list. The Marlins claimed him off waivers the next offseason but he spent the entire 2019 campaign on the IL as well thanks to continued elbow issues.

Over the 2019-20 offseason, Miami relinquished his Rule 5 rights. That sent him back to his original organization, the Rockies, without requiring a 40-man roster spot. Fernández had racked up two years of MLB service without appearing in a game, but he finally got his first real opportunity late in the 2021 season. Colorado selected him onto their 40-man roster as a September call-up. He allowed eight runs in 6 2/3 innings over six outings, struggling with his control but averaging a blistering 99 MPH on a fastball that maxed out just shy of 101.

Fernández held his roster spot with Colorado last winter but spent the first few months of the season on optional assignment to Triple-A Albuquerque. He struggled and was designated for assignment in mid-June. He cleared outright waivers and stuck with the Isotopes for the entire season, tallying 57 innings across 58 appearances. The Dominican-born hurler allowed a 6.63 ERA in that extremely hitter-friendly league, serving up a staggering 2.37 home runs per nine innings. He struck out 24.9% of opponents on an impressive 13.6% swinging strike percentage, but the longball and a 12.3% walk rate proved too problematic for him to get back to the majors.

After qualifying for minor league free agency at season’s end, Fernández finds a new opportunity in Toronto. His arm strength is surely intriguing for the Jays pitching development staff even as his minor league performance track record has been inconsistent. The 27-year-old still has two minor league option years remaining, so if he cracks Toronto’s 40-man at any point, he can bounce between Rogers Centre and Triple-A Buffalo freely for the next couple seasons.

Yankees, Tyler Danish Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees are in agreement with reliever Tyler Danish on a minor league contract, reports Sweeny Murti of WFAN (on Twitter). He’ll be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training.

Danish has appeared in parts of four major league seasons, with the bulk of his work coming this year. He made brief MLB appearances as a member of the White Sox each year from 2016-18 before a few seasons kicking around the upper minors. Danish latched on with the Red Sox on a minor league deal last winter and cracked the 40-man roster out of Spring Training. He’d spend most of the season in the majors, with 32 of his 42 outings coming at the highest level.

The 28-year-old posted a 5.13 ERA through 40 1/3 innings over that stretch. Danish induced grounders at a solid 47.2% clip and limited walks to a meager 6.9% rate but he didn’t miss many bats. He averaged just under 91 MPH on his sinker, relying more frequently on a low-80s curveball than any other offering. The Florida native picked up swinging strikes on a below-average 7.4% of his pitches, resulting in a fairly modest 18.5% strikeout percentage.

At the end of the season, the Red Sox ran Danish through outright waivers. He cleared and elected minor league free agency, where he’s now landed with their top rivals. He’ll try to crack a Yankee bullpen that is already fairly deep in right-handed options. Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga, Ron Marinaccio, Tommy Kahnle, Lou Trivino and Michael King should be on the roster if healthy (as would southpaw Wandy Peralta). Domingo Germán and Albert Abreu — both of whom are out of minor league option years — look to have the inside track on jobs as well. Jimmy Cordero, Greg Weissert, Matt Krook and Clarke Schmidt are all also on the 40-man roster but can still be sent to the minors.

Given that depth, Danish looks likely to open the season at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He’d add some experienced depth to the upper levels of the system. He’s out of minor league options himself, so if he cracks the 40-man roster at any point, he’ll have to remain in the majors or be designated for assignment and made available to other clubs.

Dodgers Designate Jake Reed For Assignment

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The Dodgers have designated reliever Jake Reed for assignment. The move clears a spot on the 40-man roster for designated hitter J.D. Martinez, who has officially signed his one-year, $10MM contract.

It’s another trip to DFA limbo for Reed, something with which he’s become unfortunately familiar. The right-hander has bounced around the league quite a bit in recent months, continuing to attract interest from various clubs at the back of the 40-man roster. Since July, Reed has gone from the Mets to the Dodgers to the Orioles to the Red Sox and back to L.A. via waivers. It’s possible he now changes uniforms again, as he’ll be traded or waived within the next week.

A low-slot righty, Reed has pitched in the majors in each of the last two years. He’s split that time with the Dodgers, Mets and Orioles, working to a cumulative 5.74 ERA through 26 2/3 innings. He has a below-average 19.2% strikeout percentage and 39.8% grounder rate with a roughly average 8.3% walk percentage in that time.

The University of Oregon product has had a better go in the minor leagues. He’s logged time at the Triple-A level in six different years, putting up a 3.84 ERA through 215 2/3 frames with a solid 25.6% strikeout rate at the top minor league level. It was a similar story this past season, with Reed posting a 3.09 ERA and a 26:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 20 Triple-A appearances between three organizations.

That capable track record at the upper levels has continued to catch the attention of clubs with room at the back of the roster. The 30-year-old still has a minor league option year remaining, so any team that keeps him on the 40-man  could bounce him between the majors and Triple-A for another season.

Cubs Designate P.J. Higgins For Assignment

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The Cubs announced they’ve designated P.J. Higgins for assignment. The move opens a spot on the 40-man roster for fellow catcher Tucker Barnhart, who has officially signed a two-year free agent deal.

Higgins, 29, has appeared in the majors in each of the last two seasons. A 12th-round pick back in 2015, he reached the majors in 2021 after six seasons climbing Chicago’s minor league ranks. That first stint proved brief, as Higgins played in just nine games before tearing the UCL in his throwing arm. He required Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season. At the end of the year, Chicago ran him through outright waivers rather than reinstate him from the injured list.

The Old Dominion product quickly returned to the only organization he’s known, inking a minor league contract a few weeks later. He spent the first six weeks of the 2022 campaign with Triple-A Iowa before being re-selected onto the MLB roster. The season saw Higgins log his first extensive major league action, as he appeared in 74 games and picked up 229 plate appearances.

It was a fairly successful look, as Higgins posted a .229/.310/.383 line with six home runs and 11 doubles. That was a bit better than the .228/.295/.368 mark compiled by catchers around the league. The right-hander showed decent contact skills and plate discipline, albeit with very modest hard contact numbers. He’s shown a similar high-OBP profile throughout his time in the minors, compiling a .279/.365/.378 line through 2100 career MiLB plate appearances.

While he hit fairly well for the position, Higgins didn’t rate highly in the eyes of public defensive marks. Statcast rated him a couple runs below average as a pitch framer through 236 innings behind the dish. His arm strength similarly rated below par, with his average pop time (time to throw to second on a steal attempt) checking in 60th among 73 backstops with 10+ throws. He successfully threw out only three of 16 basestealers. Higgins was also behind the plate for three passed balls and 13 wild pitches in 24 starts as a catcher, with Defensive Runs Saved estimating him as six runs below average overall.

Despite those defensive numbers, Higgins could find some interest from another club on the waiver wire. Catching depth is always in demand, and Higgins has flashed better offensive capabilities than most reserve catchers. Adding to the appeal, Higgins has a full slate of minor league option years remaining. Any team willing to carry him on the 40-man roster could keep him in Triple-A for the foreseeable future. If Higgins were to go unclaimed on waivers, he’d have the right to elect minor league free agency as a player who has previously been outrighted in his career.

Marlins Planning To Play Jean Segura At Third Base

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The Marlins and infielder Jean Segura reached an agreement yesterday on a two-year deal with a club option for 2025. Since Segura has primarily played second base over the past three seasons, it was speculated that the club might be planning to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. from second to short, thus moving shortstop Miguel Rojas to the bench or the trading block. However, Jim Bowden of The Athletic relays word from manager Skip Schumaker that the plan is to play Segura at third base, something that had also been suggested by Craig Mish of The Miami Herald earlier today.

Segura began his major league career as a shortstop, playing exclusively at that position in the 2012-2015 seasons. In 2016, the Diamondbacks acquired Segura from the Brewers and moved him over to regular second base duty, with Nick Ahmed the primary shortstop in Arizona. After one season with the Snakes, Segura was then traded to the Mariners, who moved him back to shortstop for 2017 and 2018, the only position he played for those two seasons. A trade to the Phillies led to one more season of exclusively playing shortstop in 2019.

The Phillies signed Didi Gregorius to be their primary shortstop going into 2020 and bumped Segura off regular duty there. He’s only logged 17 1/3 innings at short over the last three seasons. In 2020, he split his time almost evenly between second and third, with 239 1/3 innings at the keystone and 179 2/3 innings at the hot corner. That is the extent of his third base experience to date, as he spent almost all of 2021 and 2022 at second.

There’s certainly risk here for the Marlins in playing Segura at a position where he has so little experience. He’s generally been as an above-average defensive second baseman in his time there and moving him somewhere new raises the possibility that he’s not as valuable with the glove. In that brief spell at third in 2020, Segura got positive reviews from advanced defensive metrics, but in a small sample size that’s hard to draw meaningful conclusions from. In terms of arm strength, it would appear Segura won’t have a problem with the move. His throws averaged 86.5 mph in 2022, second among second baseman with only Romy González ahead of him. If he could make the throws from third with the same kind of velocity, he would have ranked 11th on the third base arm strength list.

While it’s a bit of a gamble moving Segura around, it’s understandable why they would want a stable veteran presence there. Brian Anderson had moved between third and the outfield for many years but seemed to lock down the hot corner in 2020, starting 55 of the club’s 60 games in the shortened season. However, injuries limited his workload and performance in the two seasons since, leading the club to use a hodgepodge of utility players at the position. In 2022, each of Anderson, Joey Wendle and Jon Berti made at least 34 starts at third, with youngsters Jordan Groshans and Charles Leblanc getting 17 and 13, respectively. Another handful of players got smaller tries at the position, with Luke Williams, Willians Astudillo, Erik González and Joe Dunand each getting at least one start.

As a season goes along, injuries will force any club to deviate from their plans, but it seems the club hopes to have Chisholm, Rojas and Segura lined up next to each other as much as possible. Segura’s ability to play second base also gives the club cover if Chisholm deals with injuries again in 2023, as a stress fracture in his back kept him from appearing after late June of 2022. He also underwent surgery on a torn right meniscus in September. Though he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, Segura gives them a way to pivot in the event of some kind of setback or recurrence.

Of course, it’s always possible that the Marlins are indeed shopping Rojas as some have speculated and this talk of Segura taking over third base is merely bluster those talks progress. But on the surface, it seems like utility players like Wendle and Berti, as well as the young Groshans, currently have a less clear path to playing time. It has recently been reported that the Red Sox have discussed both Wendle and Rojas in trade talks with the Marlins, and it’s possible those conversations are revisited now that Miami has added Segura into the mix, which could change Miami’s plans if a deal comes together.

Which Teams Are Slated To Pay The Luxury Tax In 2023?

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The highest number of teams to pay the competitive balance tax in a single season is six, which occurred in 2016 and 2022. It’s possible that 2023 could be a record-breaking season in that regard, as Roster Resource currently has six teams already over the $233MM base threshold, while the Dodgers are a rounding error away from the line and another handful of teams not too far off.

These numbers are still unofficial, especially considering the arbitration salaries are mostly still estimates. Teams can also change their status by making trades throughout the year, either adding or subtracting from their ledger, but consider this a rough snapshot of where things currently stand.

Top Tier – CBT Above $293MM

The Mets are not just beyond the top CBT tier, they’re on another planet. Owner Steve Cohen has shown that he doesn’t care too much about what it costs to put a competitive team together, with their payroll currently projected for $376MM and a CBT figure of $390MM. They are currently slated to pay over $116MM in taxes alone, which is more than the total 2023 payroll of 11 teams.

CBT Between $273MM and $293MM

The Yankees are alone in this tier, but are just barely under the top threshold. Roster Resource currently has their CBT figure at $291.8MM, giving them very little room for further additions without going over. If they stay above the $273MM line, both the Yankees and Mets will see their top pick in the 2024 draft moved back by 10 spots. Both the Mets and Dodgers were more than $40MM above the base threshold in 2022, meaning their top draft picks will be moved back in the upcoming draft.

CBT Between $253MM and $273MM

The Padres are the only club in this section, with their CBT number currently pegged at $267MM.  Since they paid the tax in 2021 and 2022, they are set to be third-time payors in 2023. That means they are currently slated for a 62% tax on spending over the $253MM line and will continue to do so for any further additions. Jumping over the $273MM line would lead to a huge spike to a 95% rate, as well as their top 2024 draft pick being pushed back 10 slots.

CBT Between $233MM and $253MM

The Phillies, Braves and Blue Jays are currently in this group, with the Phils ahead of the other two at $251MM. The Phillies also paid the tax in 2022, setting them up to be a second-time payor. That means they are currently set to be taxed at a 30% rate, with that rate jumping to 42% for spending that goes over the $253MM line.

Both the Braves and Blue Jays would be paying the tax for the first time in their respective histories, putting them each in line for a 20% tax rate on spending over the line. The Jays are only a hair over right now, with Roster Resource calculating their number at $233.2MM, with Atlanta at $240MM.

Just Under The $233MM Threshold

The Dodgers are currently calculated for a CBT figure of $232.9MM, just barely under the lowest line. It’s been rumored they would like to limbo under the line in order to reset their status, since that would allow them to go into 2024 as a “first-time” payor. Doing so will be a challenge at this point unless they move something off their books.

A few other teams are within range of the Dodgers and could have to start thinking about the tax line if they make another significant signing or trade. The Rangers and Angels are each at $220MM, the Cubs at $214MM, the Red Sox $212MM, Astros at $209MM, Giants at $208MM and White Sox at $205MM.

Free Agent Profile: Adam Duvall

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Thanks to a busy month of December, most of the top free agents from this offseason are off the board, assuming the Carlos Correa deal with the Mets eventually gets over the finish line. From MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents, only three remain unattached: Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin and Michael Wacha. That means that teams still looking for upgrades will have to sift through the remainders, looking for talent that other clubs have overlooked.

One interesting candidate who deserves a look is Adam Duvall, who hasn’t been written about on MLBTR since August. If any teams have interest in him, it hasn’t been leaked to the public yet. It’s not especially shocking that his market has been quiet to this point. His 2022 was cut short in July when he required season-ending wrist surgery. He also limped to a .213/.276/.401 line in the first few months of the season while striking out in 32.1% of his plate appearances. That production was 13% below league average, as indicated by his 87 wRC+.

That’s certainly not an ideal platform for a trip into free agency, but there are still things to like about Duvall. The plate discipline issue has always been there, as he has a career 6.7% walk rate and has never finished a season above 8.7%. He’s struck out in 28.5% of his career trips to the plate and has been at 25.8% or above in each season of his career. For reference, this year’s league averages were an 8.2% walk rate and 22.4% strikeout rate. However, he’s always paired that with tremendous power, topping 30 home runs in a season three times. He also hit 16 in the shortened 2020 season and 12 this year prior to being shut down.

He’s also considered to be a strong defensive outfielder. He’s tallied 58 Defensive Runs Saved on the grass in his career, 28 Outs Above Average and has a 22.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. His DRS and UZR slipped to below average in 2022, but OAA still was quite bullish, placing him in the 88th percentile in the league. His arm strength placed in the 78th percentile, his outfielder jump in the 74th and his sprint speed 67th.

If 2022 showed Duvall’s profile at its worst, 2021 showed how valuable it can be. He struck out in 31.4% of his plate appearances and walked in only 6.3% of them, but he launched 38 home runs, stole five bases, led the National League in RBIs with 113 and provided excellent defense. He got a 9.9 from UZR, 19 DRS and +4 OAA. That DRS figure was tied with Michael A. Taylor for best in the league among all outfielders while the UZR score was in the top five. That was primarily corner outfield work, but 210 2/3 innings out of his 1155 total innings came in center field. He was awarded the National League Gold Glove award for right field. All told, FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 2.7 wins above replacement for the year.

Duvall is now 34 years old and coming off a down year, both in terms of health and performance. It would be easy to roll one’s eyes at the idea of a team bringing him aboard and giving him a significant role. However, the pickings in free agency are getting slim and every player still out there is going to have flaws in one way or another. Duvall likely won’t earn a tremendous salary in free agency due to his struggles this year, but he has the ability to provide strong corner outfield defense while playing center field on occasion. His plate discipline isn’t great but he has tremendous power. It’s also possible that the upcoming shift bans will boost his batting average by a few points, since he was shifted in 71.7% of his plate appearances this year despite hitting right-handed. Even with his struggles at the plate in 2022, he was still worth 0.9 fWAR in 86 games before the wrist issue put him out for the second half. He isn’t likely to kill you in a platoon capacity either, as his career splits aren’t drastic, with a 101 wRC+ against lefties and a 94 otherwise. For a team looking for a low-cost flier to find some sneaky value this late in the offseason, they could do much worse.

Hyun-Jin Ryu Targeting July Return From Tommy John Surgery

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Hyun Jin Ryu saw his 2022 season cut short in mid-June, when a second bout of forearm soreness necessitated Tommy John surgery. Now more than six months removed from that procedure, the former All-Star is on track in his recovery.

Speaking with reporters in his home country of South Korea, Ryu said his rehab process remains on schedule (via Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News). The veteran starter indicated he hopes he can return to the Jays in July, roughly 13 months after going under the knife. All-Star festivities are scheduled for July 9-13, but a return early in the season’s unofficial second half seems like a rough target date as things stand.

Of course, that’s contingent on future steps in his rehab. Any kind of setback or delay once Ryu returns to throwing could push back that timetable. If all goes well, however, it’s possible he’ll play a role on the Toronto pitching staff for what the team hopes to be another postseason run.

Ryu made just six starts in 2022, allowing a 5.67 ERA across 27 innings. Forearm inflammation cost him a month between April and May and he suffered the setback that required surgery just four starts after his return from that IL stint. Through his first two seasons north of the border, the former ERA leader had a decent amount of success. He posted a 2.69 ERA across 12 starts during the truncated 2020 campaign, securing a third-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting as a result. His 4.37 ERA in 2021 marked a notable step back, but he stayed healthy enough to soak up 169 innings through 31 starts that year.

Toronto has an excellent top of the rotation, with Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman backed up by offseason signee Chris Bassitt. The Jays are hoping for a bounceback year from José Berríos, who had a disappointing first full season in Toronto but was an above-average pitcher between 2017-21. The fifth spot is up in the air, with neither Yusei Kikuchi nor Mitch White seizing the job. Former top prospect Nate Pearson remains on hand but pitched just 15 1/3 minor league innings in 2022 due to mononucleosis and a lat strain.

Ryu is headed into the final season of the four-year free agent deal he inked during the 2019-20 offseason. He’ll make $20MM before hitting the open market again at the end of the year. Getting back onto the mound and demonstrating his health with a handful of late-season starts would be a nice boost to his stock heading into the 2023-24 offseason.

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