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Phillies Notes: NLDS, Robertson, Long

By Mark Polishuk | October 15, 2022 at 7:54pm CDT

The Phillies continue to dance their way through the playoffs, clinching the NLDS with an 8-3 win over the Braves in today’s Game 4. Two trade deadline acquisitions from the Angels played key roles in Philadelphia’s victory — Brandon Marsh’s three-run homer in the second inning gave the Phils an early lead that they would never relinquish, and starter Noah Syndergaard allowed one earned run over three innings of work. J.T. Realmuto’s inside-the-park homer in the third inning was another highlight, as Realmuto became the first catcher to ever hit an inside-the-parker during a postseason game.

Entering the playoffs as the lowest seed in the National League bracket, Philadelphia upset the Cardinals in the Wild Card Series and have now eliminated the defending World Series champions. The Phillies will now head to the NLCS for the first time since 2010, and will await the chance to oust another higher-seeded opponent in either the Padres or the Dodgers.

Report: Cubs Interested In Jose Abreu

By Mark Polishuk | October 15, 2022 at 6:26pm CDT

The Cubs could be looking across town for a lineup boost, as Bruce Levine of 670 The Score (Twitter link) reports that longtime White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu may be a free agent target for the Wrigleyville club. 2022 was the last season of Abreu’s three-year, $50MM contract with the Sox.

Since free agency doesn’t officially open until five days after the World Series, the White Sox are the only team who can negotiate with the first baseman for the time being, and a new deal can’t be ruled out. Abreu has often spoken of his desire to remain with the Sox for his entire career, and the front office has likewise regularly praised Abreu’s contributions on and off the field. Abreu’s last trip to the open market ended up not being very open, as his representatives didn’t even talk to other teams before Abreu accepted Chicago’s qualifying offer prior to signing his three-year pact.

This time around, however, there is a little more doubt that Abreu will remain on the south side of Chicago. Abreu recently said that there hadn’t been any extension talks with the White Sox front office, and with Abreu turning 36 years old in January, the Sox might prefer to move onto younger options at first base. Shifting Andrew Vaughn or Gavin Sheets to first base would help the White Sox defensively, and moving on from Abreu’s contract would also free up some payroll space for a team that already has quite a bit of money committed to the 2023 team.

However, since the team’s 2022 payroll already set a new franchise record by topping the $193MM mark, owner Jerry Reinsdorf may have no problem with continued spending to keep Abreu in the fold. It’s not like Abreu is slowing down much in his mid-30’s — he hit .304/.378/.446 with 15 homers over 679 plate appearances in 2022, with strong hard-contact, strikeout, and walk rates. Abreu’s power numbers took a drop, yet thanks to improvements in his batting average and on-base percentage, Abreu’s wRC+ was better in 2022 (137) than in 2021 (125).

Any number of teams will have interest in Abreu if he is indeed open to leaving the White Sox, and some of those suitors might be more clear-cut contenders than a Cubs team who went 74-88 in 2022. Joining the Cubs would allow Abreu to keep his family in Chicago, of course, though it wouldn’t necessarily present a quicker path to winning baseball.

That said, there is enough flux in the NL Central that the Cubs could get back into the hunt with a big offseason, and has been some indication from both ownership and from the front office that the Cubs are turn back towards competing after two years of rebuilding. Even last winter, the signings of Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki to multi-year contracts were indicative that the Cubs didn’t plan on staying in rebuild mode for too long, even if Stroman’s deal does contain an opt-out after the 2023 campaign.

An Abreu signing might fit into this shorter-term model, as a three-year deal might be the most Abreu could hope to achieve as he heads into his age-36 season. His continued production should still merit a comfortable average annual value on that next contract, yet teams will naturally be wary about committing too many years to a player of Abreu’s age.

Signing Abreu would add some veteran stability to the lineup, and immediately address a hole at first base. Prospect Matt Mervis posted huge numbers at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2022 and seems ready for a shot at the big leagues, though entrusting Mervis with an everyday job right off the bat could be a risky move. If both Abreu and Mervis were in the fold, the Cubs could toggle the two between first base and DH, allowing for both some rest days for Abreu and time for Mervis to show that he can do against MLB pitching.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | October 15, 2022 at 5:03pm CDT

The Red Sox are trying to bounce back from a last-place finish in the AL East, but they face the possible departure of a longtime star.

Guaranteed Contracts

Trevor Story, IF: $120MM through 2027 (includes $5MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028; Story can opt out after 2025 season)
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $60MM through 2025, $20MM club option for 2026 (Bogaerts can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
Chris Sale, SP: $55MM through 2024, with $20MM club option for 2025 ($20MM of guaranteed money is deferred; Sale can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
Eric Hosmer, 1B: $39MM through 2025 (Padres covering all but the annual minimum MLB salary; Hosmer can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
Garrett Whitlock, SP/RP: $17.75MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout of $8.25MM club option for 2027; Red Sox also have a $10.5MM club option for 2028, with a $500K buyout)
Enrique Hernandez, IF/OF: $10MM through 2023
Matt Barnes, RP: $9.75MM through 2023 (includes $2.25MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2024)

Option Decisions

James Paxton, SP: $13MM club options for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, to be exercised at the same time; if Red Sox decline the options, Paxton has a $4MM player option for 2023
Tommy Pham, OF: $6MM mutual option for 2023 ($1.5MM buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Ryan Brasier (5.109): $2.3MM
Rafael Devers (5.070): $16.9MM
Nick Pivetta (4.166): $5.9MM
Franchy Cordero (4.092): $1.5MM
Alex Verdugo (4.078): $6.9MM
Rob Refsnyder (4.048): $1.6MM
Christian Arroyo (4.036): $2.2MM
Josh Taylor (3.121): $1.1MM
Reese McGuire (3.027): $1.3MM
Yu Chang (3.007): $900K
Non-tender candidates: Cordero, Taylor, Chang

Free Agents

J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm

With a 78-84 record in baseball’s most competitive division, the Red Sox suffered their fifth last-place finish in the last 11 seasons. It is the latest dip in a strangely inconsistent era for the franchise, as the Sox have also captured two World Series titles from five postseason appearances in that same 11-year stretch. The presence of certain tentpole stars (i.e. David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers) have helped the Sox make these quick turn-arounds, and yet that stability isn’t as apparent heading into 2023.

Bogaerts’ fate is the biggest question facing the Red Sox as the offseason begins, as the shortstop is expected to test free agency and opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his contract. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and members of the ownership group have all said both publicly and privately that they want to retain Bogaerts, the shortstop wasn’t dealt at the trade deadline, and Bogaerts has repeatedly stated that his preference would be to remain in Boston. However, the Sox reportedly made a curiously low offer (one additional year and $30MM added onto Bogaerts’ current deal) during Spring Training extension talks, and already seemed to be laying the groundwork for Bogaerts’ departure by signing All-Star shortstop Trevor Story last offseason.

Since free agency doesn’t officially open until five days after the World Series is over, the Sox still have some time to negotiate with Bogaerts and agent Scott Boras. While it isn’t totally uncommon to see notable players work out new extensions this close to the open market, the air of finality that has seemed to hang over Bogaerts’ Red Sox tenure creates plenty of doubt that a new deal can indeed be reached, before or after the Sox have to start bidding against other teams for Bogaerts’ services.

Between Bogaerts and outright free agents like J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi, this offseason could mark something of the end of an era in Boston, especially after longtime catcher Christian Vazquez was already dealt to the Astros at the trade deadline. That said, the Vazquez deal was the only rebuild-esque move made at the deadline, as the Sox otherwise kept most of their veterans and even added more experienced help in Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer.

That attempt at a last-minute push for a wild card berth well fell short, leaving the Sox slightly above the luxury tax threshold (and the only one of the six tax-paying teams to not reach the playoffs). The actual $900K in taxes is a relative drop in the bucket, but the Red Sox now face added penalties in regards to qualifying-offer free agents this winter. Should the Sox sign a QO-rejecting free agent, they’ll have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2023 draft. Also, the compensatory pick that the Red Sox would themselves receive if a QO-rejecting free agent — like Bogaerts or Eovaldi — signed elsewhere will now fall after the fourth round of the draft.

The luxury tax penalty adds another wrinkle to a busy offseason for Bloom. It is worth mentioning that Bloom’s immediate predecessors in the job (Dave Dombrowski and Ben Cherington) were each fired after four years or less, even though both had overseen a World Series champion during their tenure. While ownership may be more patient this time around, Bloom has thus far sandwiched a trip to the 2021 ALCS between two last-place finishes, so he could be facing extra pressure to get the Red Sox back to contention.

In fairness, the Sox were a lot more competitive than your usual last-place team, and might have been contenders in any other division. (Boston had an ugly 26-50 record against AL East opponents but were a dominant 52-34 against non-division clubs.) The Red Sox might’ve made more of a charge in 2022 if they’d had had only an average number of injuries, yet the AL East is so competitive that the Sox can hardly just run things back and hope for better health next year, especially with so much key personnel slated for free agency.

All of the potential departures do leave a lot of open payroll space heading into the winter, and yet though Bloom is the CBO of a team that surpassed the luxury tax threshold, splashy moves haven’t really been Bloom’s forte. Story’s six-year, $140MM deal is far and away the largest contract given to a free agent during Bloom’s tenure, as the Red Sox have mostly preferred to look for value in shorter-term free agent deals and lower-profile trades and acquisitions.

Could this be the year that Bloom truly splurges on the open market? Signing Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander would be a big way of upgrading the pitching staff, or making a push for Aaron Judge would add more fuel to the fire of the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry. While Bloom’s front office has routinely at least checked in with many of the top free agents of the last few seasons, his propensity to swing trades is another avenue for roster improvement.

For instance, Boston has the financial flexibility to take on a pricey contract from a team looking to cut payroll — whether that big contract belonged to a player the Sox are targeting, or a player whose deal the Sox are willing to eat in order to obtain another player they really want. With so much money coming off the books, the Red Sox might be able to reload their roster and still stay under next year’s $232MM tax threshold.

Story’s first Boston season wasn’t a triumph, as he hit .238/.303/.434 in 396 plate appearances and played in only 94 games due to a hairline fracture in his wrist and then a late-season heel contusion. He is the obvious choice to move back to his old shortstop position if Bogaerts leaves, though Story could potentially remain at second base if the Red Sox signed another big-name free agent shortstop (such as Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, or Dansby Swanson). Such a scenario may be less likely than Boston spending its biggest money at another position, but if any of the major shortstop are open to an opt-out clause after a couple of seasons a la Story, there could be room for the Red Sox to strike.

Keeping Story at second base might be Boston’s preference over moving him to shortstop and going with the respectable but unspectacular collection of internal second-base options. The Red Sox reached an early extension with Enrique Hernandez to keep him off the free agent market, but Hernandez might ultimately offer more value as a regular center fielder. Even if Hernandez only sees limited time in the infield, Christian Arroyo and Rob Refsnyder — who hit very well after joining the Sox on a minors contract — figure to take a good chunk of the playing time. Another acquisition could be added to this group, and the Red Sox would also love to see former top prospect Jeter Downs get on track at the MLB level after struggling in his last two minor league seasons.

Speaking of top prospects, Triston Casas made his Major League debut in 2022 and had a respectable .766 OPS over his first 95 PA in the Show. Casas figures to get the bulk of playing time at first base, with Hosmer on hand as a veteran complement since Hosmer isn’t likely to exercise his own opt-out clause. It’s something of an imperfect combination since both Casas and Hosmer are left-handed hitters, yet DH at-bats could be available if Martinez isn’t retained, or the Red Sox might end up parting ways with Hosmer if another roster upgrade opportunity presents itself.

After Vazquez was traded, the Reese McGuire/Connor Wong tandem delivered quality defense, and McGuire hit well at the plate. Boston might look to emulate the Astros, Guardians, Cardinals, Yankees, and Rays as contenders who prioritize defense and game-calling over offense from the catcher’s position, but Bloom has said that the Red Sox will at least explore other options. A reunion with Vazquez might not be entirely out of the question, or the Sox might pursue a longer-term catcher like Athletics trade candidate Sean Murphy.

Devers is both the biggest sure thing on Boston’s roster heading into 2023, and also its biggest long-term question mark. The third baseman is coming off another strong offensive year, but he is also a free agent after the 2023 season, and (as with Bogaerts) extension talks this past spring didn’t yield much progress. Bloom has been emphatic that Devers isn’t a trade candidate this offseason or in the foreseeable future, and even if more contract negotiations don’t lead to a new deal, it is probable that the Red Sox wouldn’t consider swapping Devers until the trade deadline at the earliest.

Martinez was still an above-average (119 wRC+) force at the plate in 2022, yet his power numbers dropped off and he made a full-on transition to designated hitter, without a single game played in the field. With Martinez now entering his age-35 season, his time in Boston could be up, as the Red Sox may prefer to rotate multiple players through the DH spot, or give the bulk of DH time to a younger player with more upside.

The outfield is the most logical spot for a new addition, as Hernandez and Alex Verdugo are the only incumbents likely to see a lot of playing time. Franchy Cordero is a non-tender candidate, former top-100 prospect Jarren Duran has yet to establish himself either offensively or defensively in limited MLB playing time, and Pham’s mutual option (like virtually all mutual options) isn’t likely to be exercised. Pham might be brought back on a smaller contract and the Red Sox won’t give up on Duran this soon, but one or even two proven regulars would go a long way towards adding more pop to the lineup.

There are plenty of interesting bats available in free agency, ranging from Judge at the top of the outfield market to other prominent names like Brandon Nimmo, Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, and more. Teams like the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Giants also stand out as potential trade partners thanks to their surplus of outfield talent, plus any number of other possibilities could emerge given how other clubs adjust their rosters.

While the Red Sox lineup was lacking in power in 2022, it was still a pretty productive (ninth in runs scored) unit overall, even if some of that production will need to be replaced or upgraded. A different challenge is faced with the pitching staff, as the Sox didn’t get good results from either the rotation or bullpen, but have to address some potential key departures.

The advanced metrics didn’t much like Michael Wacha’s work last season, but his one-year, $7MM contract ended up being a nice investment for the Red Sox thanks to Wacha’s 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings. The ageless Rich Hill continued to post solid numbers even in his age-42 season, and another return to Boston is always a possibility, even if Hill has floated the idea of only pitching for part of the season, or pitching for a clear-cut contender.

Re-signing Wacha or Hill might just require one-year deals, but a larger commitment would be necessary to retain Eovaldi, even coming off an injury-hampered season. Eovaldi was limited to 109 1/3 innings and allowed some of the most hard contact of any pitcher in the league, but still delivered a 3.87 ERA. The right-hander was an All-Star as recently as 2021, yet Eovaldi’s checkered injury history and the fact that he’s entering his age-33 season might make the Sox wary of signing him to another longer-term contract.

Chris Sale is a cautionary case in this regard, as he has pitched only 48 1/3 regular-season innings over the life of his five-year, $145MM extension (covering the 2020-24 seasons). The southpaw was limited to only 5 2/3 innings in 2022 due to a variety of injuries, including a stress fracture in his rib, a finger fractured by an Aaron Hicks comebacker, and then a fractured wrist in a bicycle accident. While Sale is expected to be ready to go for Spring Training, the Sox can’t be sure exactly what they’re getting next season — just getting Sale back onto a mound would count as a win at this point, let alone getting him back to his old ace form.

Sale, Nick Pivetta, and rookie Brayan Bello are penciled into three rotation spots, while a pair of other young arms in Josh Winckowski and Kutter Crawford could either be depth options or in competition for a job in Spring Training. The Red Sox figure to keep at least one spot open in the rotation for a competition, or to give Garrett Whitlock another look as a starter. However, acquiring two more starters to eat innings and pitch at the front of the rotation would make this entire group look a lot more capable of competing against the AL East’s big offenses. James Paxton may also be a factor if he (as expected) exercises his $4MM player option in the wake of another injury-marred campaign, yet Paxton has pitched only 21 2/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season, and none at all in 2022 due to a lat strain while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

John Schreiber was one of the bright spots of the season, as the 28-year-old unexpectedly emerged as Boston’s most consistent reliever and a regular ninth-inning choice. Matt Barnes also got some save opportunities down the stretch, as after a rough start to the season and a stint on the 60-day injured list, Barnes returned from the IL in great form. Between these two, Whitlock (if he returns to the bullpen), and Ryan Brasier (who pitched much better than his 5.78 ERA would indicate), the Red Sox have some interesting pieces in the pen, even if more depth is certainly needed. It has never been Bloom’s style to invest too heavily in the pen, so expect more lower-level relief acquisitions rather than a pursuit of a big name like Edwin Diaz.

When the Red Sox finished in last place in 2020, Bloom responded with a big flurry of offseason moves, which provided enough upgrades for the Sox to finish only two games shy of a berth in the 2021 World Series. Of course, the 2021 team had Bogaerts, Devers, and a resurgent Martinez and Eovaldi all firing on all cylinders, and Devers might be the only member of that group wearing a Boston uniform in 2023. As aggressive as Bloom has been in reshaping the Red Sox with under-the-radar or mid-tier transactions, some big swings may be necessary to get the Sox back into contention this time around.

Abraham Almonte Elects Free Agency

By Mark Polishuk | October 15, 2022 at 3:51pm CDT

The Red Sox announced that outfielder Abraham Almonte (who was designated for assignment earlier this week) cleared waivers and was outrighted off the 40-man roster. Because Almonte has previously been outrighted in his career, he had the right to reject this assignment and become a free agent, and Almonte has indeed opted to hit the open market.

Almonte signed a minor league deal with the Brewers last winter, but didn’t get any time in the big leagues until the Red Sox acquired him in a late-July trade. Almonte ended up playing 15 games with Boston in September and October, hitting .257/.297/.400 over his small sample of 37 plate appearances.

It marked the 10th consecutive season of MLB action for Almonte, who has spent his 455 career games with seven different teams, and also spent time (without any Major League action) in the Brewers and Yankees farm systems. Rarely more than a bench option at any of his stops, Almonte has carved out a niche as a solid defensive outfielder capable of playing any of the three positions. He provided some helpful depth for the Braves in 2021, filling in in the outfield in the wake of Ronald Acuna Jr.’s ACL tear and eventually earning the first World Series ring of his career.

Designating and outrighting Almonte essentially serves as an early non-tender for the Red Sox, as Almonte was eligible for arbitration and projected to earn $900K. The 33-year-old will now get an early jump in free agency and look to catch on with yet another club on another minors contract.

19 Players Elect Free Agency

By Nick Deeds | October 15, 2022 at 1:02pm CDT

Players hit minor league free agency on a daily basis during the postseason, as opposed to major league free agents who hit free agency following the World Series when their contracts expire. On Thursday, MLBTR covered 15 players who elected minor league free agency, and we will continue to provide occasional updates as players continue to hit the open market, as noted on the MiLB.com transactions log.

If a player is not on their organization’s 40-man roster at the end of the season, he will hit minor league free agency as long as he has at least 3 years of MLB service time, been assigned outright more than once in his career, and/or has played in the minor leagues for parts of seven or more seasons. Everyone on today’s list is part of that group of players, and most will search for another minor league deal this offseason, though a few may manage to latch onto a major league club and secure a bench or bullpen spot entering the 2023 season.

Infielders:

JT Riddle (Mets)

Outfielders:

Willie Calhoun (Giants)
Monte Harrison (Angels)
Magneuris Sierra (Angels)
Dillon Thomas (Angels)
Marcus Wilson (Mariners)

Pitchers:

Kyle Barraclough (Angels)
Drew Carlton (Tigers)
Jesus Cruz (Braves)
Julian Fernandez (Rockies)
Carson Fulmer (Dodgers)
Kevin Herget (Rays)
Jake Jewell (Twins)
Michael Kelly (Phillies)
Matt Koch (Mariners)
Adam Kolarek (A’s)
Denyi Reyes (Orioles)
Locke St. John (Mets)
Tanner Tully (Guardians)

Reds Outright Three Players

By Nick Deeds | October 15, 2022 at 11:55am CDT

The Reds announced yesterday that right-handers Ryan Hendrix, Raynel Espinal, and catcher Chuckie Robinson have cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Louisville. All three will become minor league free agents after the World Series unless added back to the 40-man roster.

Hendrix, 27, has spent the past two seasons shuttled between Triple-A and Cincinnati’s major league bullpen. He’s struggled mightily during that time, failing to post an ERA below 5.00 at either level during either season. Hendrix will search for a minor league deal this offseason and, having spent his entire professional career in the Reds organization, may benefit from a change of scenery.

Espinal, 31, played for three organizations in 2022. He opened the season pitching for the Giants at their Triple-A affiliate in Sacramento, before being traded to the Cubs in exchange for minor league shortstop Dixon Machado at the trade deadline. After just 2 games with Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate in Iowa, he was released, and later signed a minor league deal with the Reds, for whom he served as an up-and-down pitcher during September, posting a 7.71 ERA in just 4 2/3 innings of work. After a similarly short stint with weak results in the Red Sox bullpen last year (9.00 ERA in 2 innings), Espinal will look for a minor league opportunity with yet another club this offseason.

Robinson, 27, struggled at the plate in 25 games with the Reds this year (60 PA), slashing just .136/.136/.271 in that time. Robinson fared better during his time in the minors this season, however, slashing a more respectable .266/.320/.399 in 58 games (219 PA) split fairly evenly between the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Given the desirability of upper-minors catching depth, Robinson will likely find a minor league deal this offseason, whether with the Reds or another club.

Hanshin Tigers To Post Shintaro Fujinami

By Darragh McDonald | October 15, 2022 at 8:53am CDT

The Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are going to make right-hander Shintaro Fujinami available to MLB clubs this offseason via the posting system, according to a report from Kyodo News. Back in September, reports from Japan (Japanese link from Sponichi Annex and English link from The Japan Times) relayed his desire to attempt the move to North America. It now seems that the club will grant him his wish.

Fujinami, who will turn 29 in April, figures to be an interesting addition to this winter’s free agent market, though a very difficult one to predict. Going back to his high school days, Fujinami was a highly-touted young arm that was often compared to Shohei Ohtani when they were in the same draft class. Fujinami was first mentioned on MLBTR back in 2012, showcasing the hype that has followed him around for some time.

He lived up to that hype in his first few seasons but subsequently spent a long time battling control issues. (This eight-minute video from Yakyu Cosmopolitan is recommended for those who want a rundown of Fujinami’s whole career, though it was made before the 2022 season.) In 2013, Fujinami was thrown directly into the Tigers’ rotation in his age-19 campaign. He responded to that bold assignment by throwing 137 2/3 innings with a 2.75 ERA, 126 strikeouts, 44 walks and a couple of hit batters. He followed that up with two more excellent seasons, throwing 163 innings in 2014 with a 3.53 ERA and then 199 frames in 2015 with a 2.40 ERA.

In 2016, he was still fairly effective, but took a step back from that 2015 peak. His ERA went up to 3.25 and he walked 70 batters in 169 innings. The control issues would only grow from there, as he issued 45 walks in just 59 innings in 2017, eventually getting sent down to the minors. He’s been up-and-down between the minors and the Tigers in each season since then, struggling to earn enough trust to maintain a more permanent spot in Hanshin.

That was still the case here in 2022, as Fujinami made nine appearances down on the farm and 16 with the Tigers. In those 16 appearances for Hanshin, he logged 66 2/3 innings with a 3.38 ERA, striking out 65 while walking 21 batters. He faced a total of 276 batters, meaning his walk rate was 7.6%, which is actually respectable. For reference, this year’s MLB average was 8.2%. That’s a huge improvement over 2021, where he walked 40 out of 238 batters face for a rate of 16.8%.

All of this seems to make Fujinami a high-risk, high-reward possibility for teams in free agency. On the one hand, he has hit 126 km/h (1o1 mph) with his fastball and has been elite in the past. Despite his decade-long track record, he’ll be just 29 years old next season. On the other hand, he has struggled so badly in recent years that the Tigers haven’t let him be anything more than a depth arm since 2016. There is likely to be a wide variance in how he is viewed by MLB clubs, with some completely uninterested and others willing to take a chance on his arsenal with the aim of helping him harness his tools.

Once he is formally posted, there will be a 30-day window where MLB clubs can negotiate with his representatives. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Tigers, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given to Fujinami. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Tigers a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If he does not reach an agreement with an MLB team, he will return to the Tigers for 2023.

Qualifying Offer Set At $19.65MM For 2022-23 Offseason

By Darragh McDonald | October 14, 2022 at 11:02pm CDT

This year’s qualifying offer will be set at $19.65MM, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. This will set a new record for the QO, which generally trends upward from year to year. The previous high was $18.9MM heading int0 the 2020-21 offseason, and the QO then dropped last winter down to $18.4MM.

The qualifying offer changes on an annual basis because it is an average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in baseball. Naturally, as salaries increase with inflation and increased revenue in the game, the qualifying offer also goes up. Last year’s decline was likely a reflection of the pandemic (i.e. canceled games and diminished attendance led to a decrease in expenditures from some clubs) bu it seems that the spending environment has broadly rebounded. A look at the QO totals since its creation….

2012-13: $13.3MM
2013-14: $14.4MM
2014-15: $15.3MM
2015-16: $15.8MM
2016-17: $17.2MM
2017-18: $17.4MM
2018-19: $17.9MM
2019-20: $17.8MM
2020-21: $18.9MM
2021-22: $18.4MM
2022-23: $19.65MM

It wasn’t clear whether or not the qualifying offer system would remain in place this winter, as the league offered to scrap the QO if the MLB Players Association agreed to replace the current international signing system with a draft for international players. This issue lingered even beyond the settlement of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement back in March, but when the two sides couldn’t reach an agreement on an int’l draft in July, that ensured the qualifying offer will continue through at least the length of the CBA (through the 2026 season).

The QO has always been an interesting subplot of the free agency, if not necessarily a popular one for players and agents who feel the qualifying offer can act as a limitation on a player’s market. The qualifying offer is a one-year, contract that any team can issue to any free agent who hasn’t already received a QO in the past. If the player accepts, he returns to his team on that $19.65 payday — if he rejects, the team will receive draft pick compensation if the player signs elsewhere, and the player’s new club will also have to give up at least one pick as a penalty for the signing.

Top free agents typically reject the qualifying offer, since they are likelier to land long-term contracts and their suitors usually aren’t bothered too much at the idea of paying an extra QO penalty to sign these stars. However, some players have accepted the QO, opting to take the one-year contract as something of a pillow contract if the player is coming off a bit of a down year production-wise, or perhaps an injury-shortened season. Teams also must make a strategic call about whether or not to issue a QO to some free agents, as clubs may not want to be on the hook for $19.65MM to a particular player (free agents who accept a QO cannot be traded until June), but clubs are also keen to add extra draft picks whenever possible.

NL East Notes: Stallings, Hassell, Chernoff, Mets

By Mark Polishuk | October 14, 2022 at 9:07pm CDT

As the Phillies take a 2-1 lead over the Braves in the NLDS, let’s check out some other news from around the NL East…

Jacob Stallings’ offense declined in his first season with the Marlins, and public defensive metrics from Statcast and Fangraphs indicate that his framing and overall defense also dropped off in 2022. However, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears that the Marlins didn’t have any interest in moving Stallings earlier this season, though there is a possibility Miami’s feelings may have changed since Goold’s last inquiry. Nick Fortes played well in part-time action last season, and could be viewed as a candidate for a larger role if the Marlins did indeed move Stallings.
Nationals outfield prospect Robert Hassell III underwent surgery to fix a broken hamate bone in his right hand, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo reports. The Talk Nats blog reported last week that Hassell seemed to suffer the injury on a swing in Arizona Fall League play. Since hamate surgeries typically take roughly 6-8 weeks of recovery time, the Nats expect Hassell to be ready for the start of Spring Training. Hassell was one of the key pieces of the six-player package Washington received in the Juan Soto/Josh Bell trade with the Padres, as the outfielder entered the season as a consensus top-40 prospect in baseball. While he struggled after the trade and the move to the Nats farm system, the 21-year-old is expected to begin the 2023 season at Double-A ball.
Guardians GM Mike Chernoff was on the Mets’ radar when they were looking for a new front office leader following the 2020 season, but Chernoff rejected an interview request and still doesn’t seem interested in a move away from Cleveland, as he told the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Both Chernoff and Guards president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti reiterated how much they like their current positions, and Antonetti has also frequent turned down other interview requests from rival teams over the years. With current Mets GM Billy Eppler building a 101-game winner, it would seem a little unusual if the Mets hired another baseball-focused executive as their next team president, and the club might just hire a business-focused executive and leave Eppler in charge of baseball ops. However, the Mets have been linked to so many notable front office names over the last two years that it can’t be ruled out that owner Steve Cohen might finally land a big target.

Yankees Notes: Judge, deGrom, Montas, LeMahieu, Marinaccio, Benintendi

By Mark Polishuk | October 14, 2022 at 7:48pm CDT

The ALDS is tied 1-1, as today’s Game 2 saw the Yankees suffer a tough 4-2 loss to the Guardians in 10 innings. Giancarlo Stanton’s two-run homer gave New York a 2-0 lead after the first inning, but the Yankees managed only four more hits and zero additional runs in the next nine innings against Guards pitching. The series now shifts to Cleveland for the next two games, with Luis Severino slated to face Triston McKenzie in tomorrow’s Game 3.

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