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Rangers GM Chris Young Meets With Bruce Bochy

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Bruce Bochy has been frequently mentioned as a possible candidate to be the Rangers’ next manager, and some possible progress in that direction may have taken place yesterday, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) reports that Bochy met with Rangers GM Chris Young.  The meeting took place in Bochy’s hometown of Nashville, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that Young was seen on a flight to Nashville on Wednesday.

It is perhaps incorrect to consider the meeting as a proper interview, in the sense of how most managerial candidates are usually conducted.  “It is not clear if Bochy is interested in officially interviewing for the job with the Rangers’ search committee,” Grant writes, but it’s safe to assume Bochy and Young discussed the possibility of the World Series-winning skipper taking over in the dugout.  In fact, such a meeting might be indicative of Bochy’s standing, with Grant noting that Bochy “is widely considered the frontrunner for the job.”

Interim manager Tony Beasley is the only candidate known to have interviewed thus far, and while any number of popular coaches or ex-managers could yet emerge in the search, hiring a manager with the 67-year-old Bochy’s track record might be a preferred direction for a Rangers organization that is eager to start winning.  Last offseason’s spending splurge promised at least some improvement, yet as Texas struggled to a 68-94 record this season, longtime president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and former manager Chris Woodward were both fired in August.  Daniels’ departure put Young in charge of baseball operations, and faced his first managerial hire, it makes sense that Young might turn to a familiar face — Bochy managed Young when the former right-hander pitched for the Padres in 2006.

Over 25 seasons as manager of the Padres and Giants, Bochy had his share of lean years, as evidenced by a 2003-2029 career record that dips under the .500 mark.  However, the peaks were as high as could be, as Bochy led San Francisco to World Series titles in 2010, 2012, and 2014, making Bochy one of only 10 managers in history with at least three Series championships.

Bochy semi-retired following the 2019 season, as while he has consistently remained open to the idea of a potential return, Bochy wanted to take at least the 2020 season off before deciding his next move.  That retirement has now lasted for three seasons, though he has also acted as a special adviser to the Giants during that time.

Orioles Designate Louis Head, Beau Sulser; Claim Aramis Garcia, Mark Kolozsvary

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The Orioles have added to their catching depth with a pair of waiver claims from the Reds, acquiring backstops Aramis Garcia and Mark Kolozsvary.  To create roster space, Baltimore has designated right-handers Louis Head and Beau Sulser for assignment.

Both Sulser and Head were themselves acquired via the waiver wire in 2022, with the former obtained from the Pirates in May and the latter from Miami in July.  Neither saw much action in an Orioles uniform, with Sulser pitching 12 2/3 MLB innings for the O’s and Head only five frames.  Those 12 2/3 innings for Sulser marked his Major League debut, as he pitched in four games with Pittsburgh before moving onto six more appearances with Baltimore.

The younger brother of former Orioles hurler Cole Sulser, Beau worked his way up to the big leagues after being a 10-round pick for the Pirates in the 2017 draft.  Though the Pirates gave the righty a long look at a starter at Triple-A in 2021, Sulser has pitched only as a reliever in his brief MLB career.  Sulser has a 4.12 ERA over 373 1/3 career innings in the minors, with an improved strikeout rate in 2022 as he made the move back to mostly relief pitching.

Head made his Major League debut in 2021, posting a 2.31 ERA over 35 innings out of the Rays’ bullpen.  Seemingly the latest product of Tampa Bay’s nonstop pitching pipeline, Head spent an unusual amount of time moving up and down that pipeline, as the Rays sent the right-hander up and down from Triple-A on 12 different occasions.  Acquired by the Marlins in an offseason trade, Head struggled to a 7.23 ERA over his 23 2/3 innings with Florida’s other team, though he seemed to right the ship with an 1.80 ERA in his brief time with the O’s.

The additions of Garcia and Kolozsvary give the Orioles six catchers on their 40-man roster — an unusually high number even for a team that didn’t have a surefire starter in Adley Rutschman.  However, Robinson Chirinos is a free agent and Cam Gallagher is a non-tender candidate, so bringing more backstops into the fold gives the O’s some flexibility in deciding who will ultimately work as Rutschman’s backup in 2023.  (Anthony Bemboom is the other catcher on the 40-man.)

A second-round pick for the Giants in the 2014 draft, Garcia spent much of his career in San Francisco’s organization before being claimed by the Rangers in November 2020.  That move sparked a whirlwind of movement for the catcher, as the Oriole are now Garcia’s fifth different team within the last 23 months.  Garcia has seen MLB action in four of the last five seasons, totaling 320 plate appearances over 116 games with the Giants (2018-19), Athletics (2021) and Reds (2022).

Other than an .800 OPS in his first 65 PA with San Francisco, Garcia hasn’t shown much at the bat, hitting .216/.253/.332 for his career against big league pitching.  Injuries have played a significant role in Garcia’s career, as he missed all of 2020 recovering from hip surgery, and a finger sprain sent him to Cincinnati’s 60-day injured list last season.  Garcia is projected to earn $800K in his first offseason for arbitration eligibility, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Orioles non-tendered him prior to the deadline, depending on the team’s other plans for its catchers or its 40-man roster space.

Kolozsvary was a seventh-round pick for the Reds in 2017, and today’s waiver claim marks the first organization change of his pro career.  After hitting .215/.326/.343 in an even 1100 PA in the minors, Kolozsvary topped off his Reds tenure by making his Major League debut in 2022, appearing in 10 games.

Tigers Claim Michael Papierski, Designate Ali Sanchez

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The Tigers have claimed catcher Michael Papierski off waivers from the Reds.  In a corresponding roster move, Detroit designated catcher Ali Sanchez for assignment.

With Tucker Barnhart heading into free agency, Papierski’s addition gives the Tigers some extra depth behind the plate beyond Eric Haase.  Jake Rogers is expected to compete for playing time in Spring Training after missing 2022 due to recovery from Tommy John surgery, and prospect Dillon Dingler (who played all of last season at Double-A) might be in line for a late-season debut in the majors.

The waiver claim doesn’t preclude Detroit from making further or larger moves at catcher as the offseason rolls on, yet Papierski is a known quantity to new Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris.  Formerly the Giants’ GM for the last three seasons, Harris oversaw the trade that sent Papierski from the Astros to San Francisco last May, which opened the door for Papierski to make his MLB debut.  Papierski’s tenure with the Giants last just over a month before he went to Cincinnati on another claim.

An LSU product, Papierski was a ninth-round pick for the Astros in the 2017 draft.  Over 1606 career plate appearances in the minors, the backstop has a .222/.356/.337 slash line and 30 home runs.  Papierski couldn’t match this modest slash line in his first exposure to Major League pitching, as he hit .143/.228/.187 over 103 combined PA with the Giants and Reds last season.

Sanchez was claimed off waivers from the Cardinals back in June, but the 25-year-old didn’t see any MLB action with either St. Louis or Detroit in 2022.  Receiving cups of coffee in both 2020 with the Mets and in 2021 with the Cardinals, Sanchez’s MLB resume consists of seven total games.  Known more than his defense than his bat during his time in New York’s farm system, Sanchez has a career .262/.323/.343 slash line over 2045 PA, with six of his eight seasons coming in the Mets organization.  Given the constant need for catching depth around the big leagues, it wouldn’t be surprising to see another club claim Sanchez off the DFA wire, but if he clears, he’ll get attention for minor league contracts this winter.

Angels Re-Sign Three To Minor League Deals

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The Angels have re-signed three players to minor league deals, according to Sam Blum of The Athletic. Outfielders Aaron Whitefield and Ryan Aguilar and lefty Kolton Ingram will return to the organization next year. All three have been invited to MLB Spring Training.

Aguilar, 28, made his MLB debut this year, getting a seven-game cup of coffee with the Angels wherein he hit .136/.231/.182. In 93 Triple-A games this season, he fared much better. He hit .271/.415/.491 for a wRC+ of 144 and also added 11 steals. He was designated for assignment and outrighted in September.

Whitefield, 26, appeared in three games for the 2020 Twins and five games for the Angels this year. Those eight games make up the entirety of his MLB experience to this point. He spent most of this year in Double-A, getting into 79 games and hitting .262/.343/.432, wRC+ of 104. He managed to swipe 29 bags in that time, despite only playing about a half season’s worth of games. He was outrighted off the club’s roster in May.

The Angels have an uncertain outfield mix at the moment, with Mike Trout and Taylor Ward set to take up center and right field again, respectively. Left field is more open, as Jo Adell has yet to cement himself as a viable big leaguer. He was given brief tastes of the majors in 2020 and 2021 but a larger tryout this year. In 88 games, he hit just .224/.264/.373 for a wRC+ of 77 while striking out in 37.5% of his plate appearances. Given that he’s still a work in progress, it makes sense for the Halos to add some outfield depth to their system.

As for Ingram, who turns 26 in a week, he has no major league experience, having topped out at Double-A so far. He threw 60 2/3 innings at that level this year over 50 appearances, registering a 2.67 ERA with a 47% ground ball rate, 30.8% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate. He’ll stick around as left-handed bullpen depth and try to continue building off a strong season in the minors.

Big Hype Prospects: Veen, Sheehan, Kjerstad, Mervis, McLain

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Big Hype Prospects continues with a look at the early results from the Arizona Fall League. This is, historically, a hitter-centric league so it will come as no surprise that the best early performers are mostly position players.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Zac Veen, 20, OF, COL (AA)
AFL: 31 PA, 1 HR, 7 SB, .455/.581/.636

Veen has posted video-game numbers, especially on the basepaths. During the regular season, he stole 55 bases in 64 attempts (541 plate appearances). He’s upped the ante in Arizona, swiping a league-leading seven bags in eight attempts. Veen’s biggest statistical weakness is an elevated swinging strike rate. To close out the season, he posted a 15 percent swinging strike rate at Double-A while batting .177/.262/.234 in 141 plate appearances. His early rebound at the fall league is an encouraging sign.

Emmet Sheehan, 22, SP, LAD (AA)
AFL: 6 IP, 5 K, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 HBP, 0.00 ERA

One of only a few pitchers with serious clout in the AFL, Sheehan has held opponents scoreless through two appearances. He’s presently on the cusp of Top 100 prospect status for many evaluators. The Dodgers consistent ability to get the most out of their pitching prospects certainly contributes an added hint of optimism.

Command is the limiting factor for his development, and it happens to be the only thing he’s struggled with thus far in Arizona. Sheehan’s repertoire is a tad unusual. While a fastball-curve-changeup trio sounds vanilla, he’s a right-hander whose best pitch is a changeup. His fastball and curve tunnel well and can have upwards of 20-mph of separation. Scouting reports tend to downplay his curve when viewed on its own, but the pitch seems to play up within his repertoire.

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (A+)
AFL: 40 PA, 3 HR, .368/.400/.711

The second-overall pick of the weird 2020 draft, Kjerstad missed all of 2021 due to heart inflammation. He finally made his minor league debut this season. He steamrolled Low-A pitchers in 98 plate appearances then struggled versus High-A opponents. Since he’s missed so much time, his performance in the AFL will have more influence on how evaluators view him than most other participants. Presently, he’s tied for the league lead with three home runs. Notably, he’s also struck out 10 times which is right on par with his strikeout rate in High-A.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
AFL: 21 PA, 3 HR, .263/.333/.842

The co-leader in home runs is Mervis. He’s accomplished the feat in 19 fewer plate appearances than Kjerstad. Mervis spent the regular season climbing from High- to Triple-A. Along the way, he hit 36 home runs in 578 plate appearances. His plate discipline and contact rates improved at every level, culminating in a 10.4 percent walk rate, 14.6 percent strikeout rate, and 8.7 percent swinging strike rate in Triple-A. He’s a classic pulled contact, fly ball masher built for the height of the juiced ball era. He should arrive in Chicago early next season. He’ll enjoy Wrigley Field when the winds are blowing out.

Matt McLain, 23, SS, CIN (AA)
AFL: 30 PA, 2 SB, .200/.467/.250

A talented middle infielder now overshadowed by Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte, McLain could make a case for a quick promotion to the Majors with a strong showing this fall. To date, he’s shown epic patience, working a league-leading 10 walks in just 30 plate appearances. He’ll need to show a stronger knack for making quality contact, whether in play or over the fence. His 2022 campaign at Double-A was characterized by plenty of discipline (15.5 percent walk rate), decent power (.221 ISO), and a poor .232 batting average. While batting average isn’t tightly related to production, most quality prospects tend to post high averages in the minors.

Five More

Joey Wentz, DET (24): It’s uncommon but not entirely unheard of for players with Major League experience to play in the AFL. Wentz pitched 32.2 effective innings with the Tigers, including a 3.03 ERA (4.56 xFIP). He missed the early portion of the season, so he’ll make a few extra starts to further build his workload. A former 40th-overall pick, Wentz threw four perfect innings in his first AFL appearance.

Luisangel Acuna, TEX (20): Acuna lacks the same raw tools as his talented older brother, but his development has progressed encouragingly nonetheless. He reached Double-A as a 20-year-old. He has picked up where he left off in the AFL, batting .300/.323/.633 with a pair of home runs in 31 plate appearances. Don’t worry about the low walk rate, his discipline might be his carrying trait.

Nick Yorke, BOS (20): After a poor regular season campaign, Yorke is looking to put his name back on the map with a hot finish. Thus far, he’s hitting .300/.410/.400 in 39 plate appearances. He’s yet to homer or steal a base. He has, however, worked six walks compared to six strikeouts. In High-A, his strikeout rate was three times higher than his walk rate.

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): Gelof is well-regarded by Athletics personnel, though his on-field results weren’t ideal. He finished the year on a power-binge in Triple-A, blasting five home runs in 38 plate appearances. He blasted two home runs on Thursday, his first of the AFL season. Overall, he’s batting .259/.355/.481.

Jordan Lawlar, ARI (20): Although he sputtered statistically to end the season in Double-A, scouting reports continually put Lawlar in the discussion for the number one prospect. In 32 plate appearances, he’s hitting .333/.500/.667 with two home runs and three steals in four attempts. 2023 is his age 20 season, and there’s an outside chance he’ll debut. A hot AFL would help those odds.

Bruce Sutter Passes Away

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The Cardinals announced that Hall of Fame pitcher and World Series champion Bruce Sutter has passed away. He was 69 years old.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred released a statement in regards to Sutter’s passing: “I am deeply saddened by the news of the passing of Bruce Sutter, whose career was an incredible baseball success story. Bruce ascended from being a nondrafted free agent to the heights of Baseball by pioneering the split-fingered fastball.  That pitch not only led him to the Major Leagues, but also made him a Cy Young Award winner with the Cubs and a World Series Champion with the 1982 Cardinals.  Bruce was the first pitcher to reach the Hall of Fame without starting a game, and he was one of the key figures who foreshadowed how the use of relievers would evolve. Bruce will be remembered as one of the best pitchers in the histories of two of our most historic franchises.  On behalf of Major League Baseball, I extend my condolences to Bruce’s family, his friends and his fans in Chicago, St. Louis, Atlanta and throughout our game.”

Sutter was initially drafted by the Washington Senators in 1970 but decided to attend Old Dominion University instead. The next year, as Manfred mentioned, Sutter signed with the Cubs as a nondrafted free agent. He underwent surgery in the minors but found his pitches to be less effective after returning to action. He started working on a splitter to improve his repertoire, a pitch that would come to define his career.

He made his MLB debut with the Cubs in 1976. He was an effective reliever right away, throwing 83 1/3 innings over 52 appearances, registering a 2.70 ERA and notching 10 saves. He took a step forward the next year, throwing 107 1/3 innings in 62 games with a 1.34 ERA and 31 saves. He made the All-Star team that year, the first of six teams he would eventually make in his career.

Sutter continued along in that fashion for the next few seasons, racking up saves while pitching multi-inning outings. In 1979, he was given the Cy Young award for his efforts, a rare feat for a relief pitcher. He saved 37 games that year while recording a 2.22 ERA in 101 1/3 innings.

He was traded from the Cubs to the Cardinals prior to the 1981 campaign and would spend four seasons in St. Louis, largely continuing with the same level of excellence he had established in Chicago. 1982 was certainly a season to remember for both Sutter and the Cards. The club went 92-70 during the regular season, winning the NL East on the back of a 36-save season from Sutter. They swept the Braves 3-0 in the NLCS, with Sutter earning the win in Game 2 and the save in Game 3. They then faced off against the Brewers in the World Series and eventually emerged victorious in seven games, with Sutter winning Game 2 and then saving Game 3 and Game 7. (Video of Sutter recording the final out via MLB.com’s YouTube page.)

Sutter reached free agency and signed with Atlanta prior to the 1985 season, though his effectiveness started to wane as he got into his 30s. He posted an ERA above 4.00 in his first two years in Atlanta, missed the 1987 season entirely due to shoulder surgery, before returning in 1988 to post a 4.76 ERA in what would be his final season.

He wrapped up his MLB career with exactly 300 saves, which was the third-most in history at that time, behind only Rollie Fingers and Goose Gossage. He also collected 68 victories while posting a 2.83 ERA in a career that included 1042 1/3 innings. He made six All-Star teams, won a Cy Young award and a World Series title. After lingering on the Hall of Fame ballot for over a decade, Sutter was eventually elected in 2006, his 13th year on the ballot.

MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, loved ones and former teammates who are mourning him today.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds efforts to slice payroll while remaining at least on the periphery of the Wild Card race fell flat. An 11-game losing streak in April set the stage for what would prove to be a dismal season, with Cincinnati tying the Pirates for the third-worst record in the majors. With questions about the extent of ownership’s desired paring of the payroll, the Reds find themselves without a great path back to contention next year.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Joey Votto, 1B: $32MM through 2023 (including $7MM buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B: $22MM through 2023 (including $4MM buyout of 2024 club option)

Option Decisions

  • Mike Minor, LHP: $13MM mutual option (Royals responsible for $1MM buyout)
  • Justin Wilson, LHP: $1.22MM club option (no buyout)

Total 2023 commitments: $43MM
Total future commitments: $54MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Cessa, Aquino, Buck Farmer, Law, Garcia

Free Agents

The Reds aren’t far removed from their last rebuild. Cincinnati lost 90+ games each season from 2015-18, finishing at the bottom of the NL Central every year. They stockpiled high draft picks along the way, and they began to push forward midway through the 2019 campaign. Despite being out of contention at that year’s deadline, they acquired Trevor Bauer via trade. They followed up by signing Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos to four-year free agent guarantees, setting 2020 as their clear target date for a return to competitiveness.

To a very small extent, the Reds showed some progress that year. They finished 31-29 during the shortened season, qualifying for the expanded playoffs but being swept out of the Wild Card round. Whatever aggressiveness they’d shown the year prior waned in the aftermath of the pandemic season, as the Reds didn’t make any strong efforts to build out the roster over the 2020-21 offseason. They hovered around .500 for most of last year, flirting with Wild Card contention into September but ultimately coming up short. To the dismay of the fanbase, they then set about tearing down the roster as a means of cutting costs.

Over the winter, the Reds shipped out Tucker Barnhart, Wade Miley, Sonny Gray and Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez in a package deal to get out from under the remainder of Suárez’s contract. They watched Castellanos opt out and sign with the Phillies. Cincinnati made a series of late additions, bringing in Tommy Pham, Donovan Solano, Colin Moran and Hunter Strickland on one-year deals and acquiring Mike Minor from the Royals to backfill the rotation. Their host of subtractions left them with no margin for error if they wished to remain competitive, with very little in the way of depth capable of weathering injuries or underperformance from anticipated contributors. The Reds dealt with plenty of both, and the result was a 62-100 season that again leaves the team near the bottom of the majors.

Getting back to competitiveness in 2023 would require an unexpected renewed willingness from ownership to push spending forward, one which doesn’t seem to be on the horizon. Meeting with reporters last week (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer), general manager Nick Krall indicated the team plans to “come into (2023) in a similar place that we are right now.” While Krall called the team’s results “not acceptable” and indicated the club would add to the roster in some capacity, he also suggested the roster would be composed of a number of young players. Most players early in their career, of course, are playing on pre-arbitration or relatively low arbitration salaries, and Nightengale reported the Reds were likely to further slice payroll this offseason.

Cincinnati entered 2022 with a player payroll in the $114MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Midseason trades of Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle only trimmed that further, and Cincinnati is sure to decline its end of a $13MM mutual option on Minor’s services. They only have $43MM in guaranteed money on the books for next season, with the final seasons of the Joey Votto and Moustakas contracts their only commitments. They’ll owe an additional combined $11MM at the end of the year to buy that duo out, leaving the books completely empty going into 2024.

That figure doesn’t include projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players, and the Reds do have 11 players who’ll qualify for that process. Around half that group figures to be non-tendered, though, with utilityman Kyle Farmer headlining the class with a salary in the $6MM range. Even if Cincinnati retains each of Farmer, Nick Senzel, Luis Cessa, Jeff Hoffman, Lucas Sims, Tejay Antone and Justin Dunn, that group shouldn’t combine for much more than $15MM. Precisely where ownership will draw the spending line is unclear, but there should at least be room for a handful of low-cost one-year deals late in the offseason again.

While Krall and his front office will have budgetary constraints in the players they’re targeting, they are free to add at virtually any position on the roster. In his meeting with reporters last week, the front office head suggested nobody has a guaranteed position. “Everyone is going to have to come in and win a roster spot,” Krall said (via Nightengale). “That’s just the way it is. I don’t know if we have a ‘this is going to absolutely be this person’s position on Opening Day.’ I think we have to come in, evaluate where everybody is, and players have to earn those roster spots.”

There’s probably some amount of hyperbole in those comments. It’s hard to envision a scenario where second-year pitchers Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene aren’t in the Opening Day rotation if healthy. Tyler Stephenson will be the #1 catcher, and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India figures to get an opportunity to bounce back from a down ’22 campaign at second base. The Reds do have a few young players who are virtual locks for certain roles to start next season.

To Krall’s point, there aren’t many positions locked down though. Much of the infield is an open question. Votto is a franchise icon and a potential future Hall of Famer, but he hit only .205/.319/.370 over 376 plate appearances before undergoing rotator cuff surgery in August. It’s hard to imagine the Reds taking him out of the primary lineup in what figures to be a non-competitive season regardless, but they could look to curtail his playing time a bit at age 39. Votto is entering the final guaranteed season of the ten-year extension he signed in 2012, and it could well be his final season in a Reds uniform.

India figures to join him on the right side of the infield on most days. The other side of the second base bag is a major question mark. Cincinnati gave some late-season playing time to the combination of José Barrero and Spencer Steer, the latter of whom was acquired from the Twins in the Mahle trade. Both players are 24 years old and came with some top-100 prospect support during their time in the minor leagues. Neither has played well in limited big league time to date. Steer has been below-average, and Barrero had an awful season, both in the majors and at Triple-A.

Steer saw the majority of his time at third base, mixing in some work at first base and at the keystone. Barrero played exclusively at shortstop. Steer has hit well throughout his minor league career and is likely to open the season as the favorite for playing time at the hot corner, but the Reds could start him back in Triple-A Louisville if they feel he’d benefit from further development time. It’s hard to count on Barrero as the Opening Day shortstop after he’s hit .170/.215/.223 through his first 93 big league games. Top prospect Elly De La Cruz has jumped Barrero as the player most likely to be their long-term shortstop. He’ll have to be added to the 40-man roster this winter. De La Cruz isn’t going to start the season in the majors after striking out in more than 30% of his Double-A plate appearances, but he could factor in later in the year. Noelvi Marte is also going to be added to the 40-man this offseason, although he’s yet to reach Double-A and probably won’t play in the majors until 2024 at the earliest.

In the interim, while the Reds would surely love for Barrero to show some of the power-athleticism combination that made him such a well-regarded prospect, they could look to a veteran stopgap at shortstop. Perhaps that’s Kyle Farmer, who has been a capable utility option for two seasons running. The 32-year-old is better suited for a bench role than an everyday job on a contender, but he can hold down shortstop (or third base, if the Reds wanted to give Steer more time in Louisville as well) for a team in transition. There’s a chance the Reds shop Farmer this winter, but he’s projected for a $5.9MM arbitration salary and would have modest trade value after a .255/.315/.386 showing.

Moustakas is also at least a tangential factor in the infield. The veteran left-handed hitter was a productive power bat at his peak, but he’s battled a number of lower half injuries and hit .211/.289/.356 over 491 plate appearances since the start of 2021. One could argue for the Reds to just eat the remainder of Moustakas’ contract and turn his roster spot over to someone else, since they’re certainly not going to be able to shed any notable amount of the $22MM he’s still owed in any event. Yet if he’s still on the roster come Opening Day, Moustakas could find himself in the corner infield/designated hitter mix.

Things aren’t any clearer on the outfield grass. Among players still under club control, Senzel, Aristides Aquino, TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley logged the most outfield action in 2022. Aquino and Senzel again disappointed. Aquino is virtually certain to be non-tendered this offseason. Cincinnati could at least consider the same with Senzel, who now owns a .240/.303/.360 line in over 1000 big league plate appearances. Those rough offensive performances mean he’s projected for a modest $2.2MM arbitration salary, however, and the front office will probably give the former #2 overall pick one more shot. Friedl and Fraley will be back after decent seasons; neither is an obvious everyday player, but each could see fairly regular playing time depending on what other moves the Reds do or do not make.

With both Friedl and Fraley hitting from the left side, a right-handed outfielder could be on the wish list. Chad Pinder, Wil Myers (who’ll be bought out by the Padres), Kevin Pillar and old friend Adam Duvall are among the affordable free agents who’d fit that bill. Pillar and Duvall are both capable of logging some time in center field, although neither is a great defender there at this stage of their careers.

Cincinnati is also likely to bring in a veteran catcher to back up Stephenson. Garcia signed a minor league deal and broke camp last spring, but he didn’t hit well when healthy and lost most of the second half to injury. He’s a non-tender candidate, with the Reds likely to bring in a new experienced backstop to assume a part-time role. Robinson Chirinos, Kevin Plawecki and former Reds Barnhart and Curt Casali are all headed to free agency.

With a number of unproven players likely to assume regular roles, the team will be counting on some to take steps forward. Cincinnati has already parted ways with hitting coach Alan Zinter and will turn to a new voice to guide their young bats. Manager David Bell will return for a fifth season, but a good chunk of his coaching staff will be overhauled.

That’s not the case for pitching coach Derek Johnson and assistant pitching coach Eric Jagers, both of whom are returning. They’ll be working with a number of young players themselves. Lodolo and Greene are former top ten draftees who made their major league debuts early this year. Both missed some time with injuries but showed promise when healthy. Lodolo pitched to a 3.66 ERA with an excellent 29.7% strikeout rate through 19 starts. Greene had a 4.44 ERA as he battled some home run issues, but he punched out 30.9% of batters faced over 24 outings.

They’ll be back at the top of the rotation, and another 2022 rookie could join them in the opening five. Graham Ashcraft made 19 starts this season, pitching fairly well early before tailing off in the final month. He finished with a 4.89 ERA, posting a below-average 15.3% strikeout rate but inducing ground-balls at a stellar 54.5% clip. Ashcraft isn’t a lock for the Opening Day rotation as Lodolo and Greene are, but he looks to have the inside track at a job.

That’s in part a reflection of the uncertainty at the back of the starting staff. Among in-house options, Cessa, Vladimir Gutiérrez, Dunn and Connor Overton led the team in rotation innings. Cessa is a swingman who could be non-tendered. Gutiérrez will miss most or all off next year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Dunn lost most of this season to shoulder issues and hasn’t had much MLB success through three seasons. Overton has bounced between a number of teams as a minor league journeyman. Brandon Williamson, acquired from Seattle in the Winker/Suárez trade, walked more than 14% of opponents at Triple-A. Anyone from that group could compete for innings, but penciling two of them into the season-opening rotation behind Lodolo, Greene and Ashcraft wouldn’t work.

The Reds will probably dip into the lower tiers of the free agent rotation market as a result. Chad Kuhl, Michael Pineda and Trevor Williams are among a host of back-end starters who’d only cost a few million dollars. The Reds’ hitter-friendly home ballpark could work against their efforts to pursue bounceback candidates, but they can promise a fair bit of opportunity.

There’s a chance for a similar low-cost flier in the bullpen. Cincinnati has had one of the league’s worst relief corps over the past couple seasons. Alexis Díaz was one of the team’s few bright spots in 2022, emerging as a late-game weapon. He’s not likely to repeat this year’s 1.84 ERA with how many fly balls he’s surrendered, but he’s a lock for high-leverage work. 2021 breakout hurler Antone missed all of this season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but he should be ready for Opening Day. Sims, Hoffman and Ian Gibaut are among the returning right-handed options, but the Reds could look for a left-hander.

Cincinnati holds a $1.22MM club option over Justin Wilson, but he’s likely to be let go after undergoing Tommy John surgery this June. Reiver Sanmartin is the only southpaw who finished the year in the MLB bullpen. He had a 2.96 ERA and a 54.3% grounder rate, but he had below-average strikeout and walk numbers. Even if the front office doesn’t go into MLB free agency, adding a left-handed bullpen arm via waivers or on a minor league deal is likely to be on the docket.

While Krall and his staff figure to make some small moves, the additions are likely to be around the margins. The 2023 campaign is going to be another trying season, with the Reds seemingly looking to 2024 and beyond as their more realistic window for contention. Cincinnati has stockpiled a decent amount of minor league talent, partially as a result of the deals that have torn down the MLB roster. Shortly after the trade deadline, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN ranked the Reds’ farm system #9 in the majors. As that upper level talent continues to matriculate to the big leagues and hopefully joins Stephenson, India, Lodolo and Greene, Cincinnati can begin to see their next contending core.

That’ll coincide with the removal of the Votto and the Moustakas contracts from the books. The long-term financial flexibility could allow them to explore extension talks with any of their intriguing young players who are already at the big league level this winter. Even if nothing comes together on that front, it should afford the front office some freedom after 2023 to attack some of the roster’s weaknesses with more urgency. There are glimmers of long-term hope for Cincinnati, but the fanbase looks to be in for another frustrating offseason and rough year before that hope can materialize into legitimate success.

Ian Happ Transformed Himself In 2022

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It’s been a difficult couple of years for Cubs fans, as the team finished 74-88 in 2022, just a few wins better than the 71-91 record they posted in a 2021 season that saw the team trade Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez, among other players, at the trade deadline. While the Cubs may have only made marginal improvements in the standings this year, there are some bright spots. Both Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki delivered in their first years in Cubs uniforms, and young players like Nico Hoerner, Christopher Morel, and Justin Steele all gave fans reason to hope with encouraging 2022 performances.

Leading the pack in that regard was Ian Happ, who had a transformational year in 2022 en route to his first All-Star selection. In 520 career games entering the 2022 season, Happ slashed .241/.338/.467 (113 wRC+) and had shown himself to be a primarily three true outcomes hitter. Among hitters from 2017-2021 with at least 1500 plate appearances, Happ’s 12% walk rate ranked 31st in the majors and his .226 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) ranked 51st. While those numbers on their own would put Happ in a similar conversation as the likes of Christian Yelich and Paul Goldschmidt, his 30.8% strikeout rate ranked 4th among qualifiers over that timeframe, severely hampering his overall production. This, combined with defensive assignments such as second base and center field where he looked overmatched, left Happ entering the 2022 season with just 6.9 career fWAR.

The 2022 season saw Happ play like a completely different player. He still takes his walks, though the 9% rate at which he did so in 2022 is reduced from his previous career norms, but the power output has changed dramatically. Formerly a player who could be relied upon for 20-25 home runs over the course of a full season, Happ hit just 17 home runs in 2022 despite having more plate appearances this season than any other in his career: a result of his career-worst 6.5% barrel rate.

What Happ gave up in power, he made up for in increased contact. His strikeout rate plummeted all the way to 23.2% in 2022, a remarkable improvement for a player who as recently as last year finished with the 10th-highest strikeout rate among qualified batters. This reduction in strikeouts came off the back of significantly reduced whiffs. Happ posted a contact rate of 75% this season, a significant improvement over his 67.6% career rate entering the 2022 season.

In addition to his improvement in terms of contact, Happ also saw much of his lost home run power convert to doubles power. While his low home run total in 2022 may seem concerning on the surface, Happ hit a whopping 42 doubles this season, tied for sixth-most in the majors and more than doubling his previous career high of 20. With fewer whiffs and more doubles, Happ’s .271/.342/.440 slash line in 2022, good for a wRC+ of 120, left him hitting better than he ever had in a full season. He was also more consistent as a hitter in 2022, able to handle both lefties and righties with equal effectiveness. While Happ has struggled against lefties for his career (posting just a .717 OPS against them in 584 plate appearances), in 2022 he actually posted slightly better numbers against lefties than righties for the first time in his career: a .788 OPS against lefties compared to a .780 OPS against righties.

Along with his growth at the plate, Happ was a positive contributor in the field for the first time in his career in 2022. A full-time shift to left field has done wonders for Happ’s defensive value; his +2 OAA in 2022 ranks fourth among qualified left fielders and trails only Adam Duvall in the NL. All of this growth saw Happ post a 3.5 fWAR in 2022, more than his totals for 2020 and 2021 combined.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Happ to make $10.6MM for 2023 in his final trip through arbitration. A free agent at the end of the 2023 season, Happ’s future is uncertain. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters this week the team has laid the groundwork for extension discussions with some key players this offseason, although there’s no indication a deal with Happ (or any other player) is close. The Cubs have doled out just two contract extensions in the past four years: one to Kyle Hendricks during Spring Training in 2019, and one to David Bote just a few days later. Furthermore, for an organization with top prospects such as Brennen Davis, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Alexander Canario manning the outfield in the upper levels of the minors — not to mention Suzuki under contract to man right field through the 2026 season — an extension for a player who’s just shown his best position to be left field may not necessarily be prudent.

Given all this, it seems likely that Happ will be playing elsewhere sometime soon, whether that’s in time for Spring Training next year, after next year’s trade deadline, or after Happ tests free agency for the first time. One speculative fit would be with the crosstown White Sox, who have a collection of talented players but had one of the least productive outfield units in the majors in 2022. Furthermore, Happ’s switch-hitting capabilities would be an excellent change of pace for a club that relies on the righty bats of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, AJ Pollock, and Andrew Vaughn when it comes to manning the outfield. The Red Sox, Marlins, Rangers and Giants are among other teams who missed the postseason this year and could stand to make improvements to their outfield going forward. As for teams that made it into the postseason, the Braves may look to improve upon their internal left field options of Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna, while the Rays will need outfield help with the likes of David Peralta and Kevin Kiermaier likely hitting free agency this offseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers made some aggressive moves last offseason, hoping that 2022 could be the year their rebuild would end. Unfortunately, that plan failed in spectacular fashion, leading to a late-season shakeup. General manager Al Avila was fired in August and replaced by Giants general manager Scott Harris, who was given the title of president of baseball operations in Detroit. The franchise will be shifting course under new leadership, though it remains to be seen exactly how that will play out.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2023 commitments: $84.65MM
Total future commitments: $239.625MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Tigers have been in rebuild mode for many years, with their last winning season coming in 2016 and their most recent postseason appearance in 2014. After an encouraging finish in 2021, it was decided that it was time to strike. The club gave out big free agent deals to Javy Báez and Eduardo Rodríguez, smaller deals to Chafin and Michael Pineda, in addition to trading for Barnhart and Meadows. It was hoped that those acquisitions could combine with a core of young players to propel Detroit into competing amidst a weak AL Central.

Unfortunately, the club was bound by Murphy’s law in 2022, with the majority of the lineup underperforming and just about every pitcher getting hurt, significantly in many cases. That led to dismal results and a front office shakeup, with Avila packing his things and Harris moving in. Harris has been on the job less than a month, making it tough to predict exactly what he has planned. But there’s no doubt that the agenda is change, in order to steer the club in a better direction. The first domino has already fallen, with Detroit’s amateur scouting director getting dismissed last week. The Tigers eventually finished 66-96, 11 games behind their record last year.

Barnhart has never been a huge threat at the plate but has always earned strong marks for his defense and framing. With the Tigers planning on running out a fairly young pitching staff, there was sense in installing a glove-first option behind the plate. However, Barnhart took a step back at the plate, even relative to his own standards. After hitting .247/.317/.368 last year in Cincinnati, production that was 20% below league average by measure of wRC+, he dropped to .221/.287/.267 this year for a wRC+ of 63.

With Barnhart’s impending free agency, the Tigers will have the option of pivoting behind the plate. Eric Haase was one of the few Tigers to have a nice season in 2022. He hit 14 home runs and slashed .254/.305/.443 for a wRC+ of 112. He crouched behind the plate in 84 games while also playing some left field and got a cameo at first base. He doesn’t get high grades for his catching work though, as Defensive Runs Saved gave him a -9 this year while FanGraphs’ framing metric gave him a -6.6. Detroit could look to the open market for a defensive-minded backstop to pair with Haase, though it’s possible they already have one in Jake Rogers. Scouts have long praised Rogers’ work while donning the tools of ignorance, though he missed all of this season due to undergoing Tommy John surgery in September of 2021. If the club does decide to seek outside help, it will likely be of the short-term variety since it is hoped that their “catcher of the future” is already present in Dillon Dingler, who spent all of this year at Double-A. His defense is considered stronger than his offense, but he hit .238/.333/.419 for a wRC+ of 107 this year, though with a concerning 31.9% strikeout rate. There’s some potential here, but the Tigers could probably fit a veteran like Roberto Pérez or Austin Hedges into the picture.

First base was supposed to a settled matter by now, as Spencer Torkelson cracked the club’s Opening Day roster. He was considered one of the top prospects in the game at the time and seemed to have a chance at cementing himself there for the long haul. His first taste of the majors didn’t go according to plan, however, as he hit .197/.282/.295 through the middle of July and got optioned back to the minors. A September call-up was a bit more promising and led to a .219/.292/.385 line over the final few weeks of the season. That’s still below average by a bit, amounting to a wRC+ of 95, but an improvement, at least.

At second base, the club got a real mixed bag of a season out of Jonathan Schoop. He had a strong season with the glove, as all defensive metrics liked his work, especially Outs Above Average. Schoop’s 27 OAA this year was the highest of any fielder in the league, well beyond the next-best mark of 20 OAA for Dansby Swanson. However, his offensive production mysteriously cratered. After hitting .270/.315/.454 from 2019 to 2021 for a wRC+ of 106, Schoop produced a dismal batting line of .202/.239/.322 this year for a wRC+ of just 57. He’s under contract for one more season and will surely forego an opt-out possibility.

Next to Schoop on the diamond, Javy Báez was supposed to be the club’s stalwart at shortstop after signing a six-year, $140MM contract this past winter. He had a poor showing in the shortened 2020 campaign but had been great in the previous three full seasons, producing above-average work on both sides of the ball. But in his first year as a Tiger, he hit just .238/.278/.393 for a wRC+ of 90. Advanced defensive metrics were also split on his work, with Báez considered to be below-average by DRS and Ultimate Zone Rating, though he did register 2 OAA. He can opt out of his deal after 2023 but would need to have a huge turnaround in order to even consider exercising it. For the Tigers, they will have to hope for better results than they saw this year.

Continuing the pattern around the diamond, third base was another area of disappointment. Over 2020 and 2021, Jeimer Candelario hit 23 home runs, walked in 10.2% of his plate appearances and hit .278/.356/.458 for a wRC+ of 125. But in 2022, his walk rate dropped all the way down to 6% and he slashed .217/.272/.361, wRC+ of 80. He made $5.8MM this year and has one more pass through arbitration remaining. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Candelario to get a bump to the $7MM range for next year, which would be a hefty commitment for Detroit unless they feel 2022 was an aberration and that Candelario will turn things around next year. This year’s crop of free agent third basemen isn’t great, with Nolan Arenado not a consideration for the Tigers even if he does opt out. Brandon Drury will likely get a multi-year deal somewhere that isn’t Detroit. That leaves veteran utility players like Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson and Donovan Solano as potential replacements if the club moves on from Candelario.

Moving to the outfield, we find a similar pile of frustrating results. Alongside Torkelson, the club’s other much-hyped prospect coming into the season was Riley Greene. He seemed like he had the chance to crack the Opening Day roster just like Torkelson, but he fractured his foot during Spring Training and didn’t make his debut until June. He ended up posting a line of .253/.321/.362 in 93 games for a wRC+ of 98. Greene just turned 22 and still has plenty of time to take another step forward, but looking strictly at 2022, he was just a hair below league average.

Austin Meadows was supposed to have one of the corners spoken for, after coming over from the Rays in a trade for Isaac Paredes and a draft pick. Unfortunately, he ended up missing significant time due to vertigo-like symptoms, COVID-19, Achilles strains and mental health concerns. In the end, he only got into 36 games and hit around a league average level, which is below what he accomplished in Tampa. Robbie Grossman was set to take another slot in the second season of his two-year deal with Detroit. He hit 23 home runs in 2021 and produced a line of .239/.357/.415 for a wRC+ of 116 but then took a big step backward this year. In 83 games with the Tigers, he hit just a pair of long balls and slashed .205/.313/.282 for a wRC+ of 78 before getting flipped to Atlanta at the deadline.

Akil Baddoo was looking to build off a strong debut in 2021 where he hit .259/.330/.436 for a 110 wRC+, but he also swooned this year, hitting .204/.289/.269, wRC+ of 65. Greene, Meadows and Baddoo are all set to be back next year, as will rookie corner outfielder/DH Kerry Carpenter. Carpenter had a breakout season in the minors and hit six homers in his first 31 MLB games late in the year. Still, the Tigers could grab a veteran to bolster the group, given the lack of certainty with anyone in the current mix. Players like Ben Gamel, Corey Dickerson or Tyler Naquin would be logical fits to take some playing time and hopefully turn themselves into deadline trade candidates.

Miguel Cabrera, in his age-39 season, didn’t take the field at all this year, limited to designated hitter duty only. He and Tiger fans got to enjoy him cracking the 3,000 hit club in April, but it was largely uninspiring apart from that. He hit .254/.305/.317 for a wRC+ of just 79, 13 points below his previous career low. He’s still under contract for one more season.

While the lineup was characterized by underperformance across the board, the story of the pitching staff was an unfathomable litany of injuries. Spencer Turnbull required Tommy John surgery late in 2021 and was already expected to miss all of this year. But the Tigers spent big to bring in Eduardo Rodríguez to be a veteran anchor next to exciting youngsters like Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal and others. However, the Tigers didn’t get a full healthy season from anyone and ended up leaning on veteran journeymen and depth options. 31-year-old Drew Hutchison and his career ERA of 4.89 ended up second on the team in starts with 18, with only Skubal able to edge past that mark at 21.

Rodriguez missed time due to a ribcage sprain and then a personal issue, making only 17 starts on the year. Mize was only able to take the ball twice before hitting the IL and eventually requiring Tommy John. Skubal made 21 starts before requiring flexor tendon surgery. Manning missed significant time with shoulder issues, eventually returning but then was scratched from his final start due to a forearm strain. He finished the year making just 12 starts and he and Skubal are both question marks for the start of next season. Given all those issues, veteran starting pitching would be a sensible target this winter for Detroit. They surely won’t break the bank for Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander, but someone like Dylan Bundy, Zach Davies or Johnny Cueto could eat some innings while the younger guys get healthy.

If there’s one area where 2022 wasn’t a total disaster, it was the bullpen. 10 different relievers pitched 21 innings or more for the Tigers  and each one registered an ERA under 4.00. Almost that entire group could be back next year, as most are controllable via arbitration or have yet to even reach their arb years. The only exceptions are Chafin, who has one year left on his contract but has an opt-out clause, and Michael Fulmer, who was traded to the Twins at the deadline and is an impending free agent.

Fulmer was the only member of the bullpen dealt away at the deadline, but the Tigers could field trade offers on that group again this winter. Joe Jiménez and José Cisnero stand out as particularly logical candidates to be moved with only one season of arbitration-eligibility remaining. Hard-throwing southpaw Gregory Soto and right-hander Alex Lange each have three-plus seasons of remaining control and will be harder to pry away, but they’re the highest value trade candidates in the Detroit bullpen.

Payroll wise, the Tigers aren’t in terrible shape, despite their aggressive offseason one year ago. They ran out an Opening Day figure of $135MM this year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That was a big jump from recent seasons but still well shy of their last competitive window, with the club spending around $200MM in 2016 and 2017. There’s only about $85MM committed to next year, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That number doesn’t include salaries for arbitration-eligible players, but a handful of that group are non-tender candidates after such a poor campaign. There’s certainly room for more aggressive moves if the club sees an opportunity to make them.

However, a compelling argument could be made that the wisest path forward for Harris is to slowplay things for a year. He can take some time to get to know the organization, figure out what he considers to be its strengths and weaknesses. He can get more clarity on the health situations of their many injured pitchers. They can see if Greene and Torkelson can find another gear now that they’ve gotten their feet wet at the big league level. And they will also have a big chunk of payroll space opening up when Cabrera’s mammoth deal is finally out of the way, leaving Báez and Rodríguez as the only contracts on the books for 2024, assuming Báez doesn’t opt out. We can’t know for sure how Harris will operate since he’s only just gotten the job, but with so much uncertainty all over the roster, it would be surprising if he tried to fix absolutely everything in one offseason. Tiger fans that are still around have already been very patient with this rebuild, but it’s likely they will continue to be tested for another season at least.

15 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the postseason rolls along, players hit minor league free agency daily. It’s customary each offseason for dozens of players to hit the open market, separate from the players who reach MLB free agency at the end of the World Series based on the expiration of their contracts while having six-plus years of MLB service time.

Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of MLB service, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minor leagues has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group falls under that umbrella. The majority will take minor league deals over the winter, although one or two could find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.

MLBTR covered 34 players who qualified for minor league free agency last week. We’ll periodically provide updates as plenty more hit the open market, as reflected on the MiLB.com transactions log.

Pitchers

Infielders

Outfielders

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