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Previewing The 2022-2023 Free Agent Class: Right-Handed Relief

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MLBTR has gone around the diamond with a position-by-position look at this winter’s free agent class. With all the hitters and the starting pitchers now covered, it’s time for a look at the relievers. Just about every team will be looking to make an investment in improving its bullpen, and they will have a choice of all options, from veteran journeymen to a lights-out closer who could get a record-setting contract.

The Cream of the Crop

Díaz has had some ups and downs in his career but he reached incredible heights in 2022. He pitched 62 innings with a tiny ERA of 1.31. He did that by striking out 118 batters, an incredible rate of 50.2%. He also kept his walks at a reasonable 7.7% and got grounders on 46.9% of balls in play. He even added 2 2/3 innings of scoreless work in the postseason before the Mets were eliminated. He was the best reliever in baseball this year and it could be argued that he’s the best in quite some time.

He hasn’t been quite this good at all times. He had a 5.59 ERA in 2019, for instance, and a 3.45 mark last year. However, there are reasons to be skeptical of those numbers. He allowed a .377 batting average on balls in play in 2019 and saw 26.8% of fly balls go over the fence. Both of those numbers are outliers relative to his career, leading to all the advanced metrics to view him as worthy of much better. Last year, his 67.8% strand rate caused a similar though less-extreme disparity. Although his ERA was wobbled a few times, his xERA, xFIP and SIERA all suggest he’s been much more consistent than you might think at first glance.

Due to the volatile nature of relief pitching, teams generally avoid spending lavishly on the bullpen. The largest ever guarantee for a reliever was the five years and $86MM secured by Aroldis Chapman. Díaz is going into free agency at the same age as Chapman was then, with a résumé that’s similarly dominant. Add in six years of inflation, increased luxury tax thresholds, a free-spending Mets team and Díaz’s marketable entrance and there’s a chance baseball could see it’s first ever $100MM reliever.

Potential Closers

Jansen was a free agent one year ago, eventually settling for a one-year, $16MM deal with the Braves. Though he’s not quite at the same level he was at while at his peak with the Dodgers, he was still plenty effective. He threw 64 innings in 2022 with a 3.38 ERA, striking out 32.7% of batters face while walking 8.5% and getting grounders on 29.9% of balls in play. That was all while functioning as the team’s closer, racking up 41 saves on the year. Naturally, Jansen’s velocity is trending downwards as he ages, but his fastball still averaged 93.6 this year. That’s just a few ticks below his peak of 96 which was back in 2014.

Though the Braves have said they would love to have Jansen back, it seems they already acquired their replacement closer by grabbing Raisel Iglesias at the trade deadline. With Iglesias under contract for three more seasons and the Braves needing their funds to address shortstop and perhaps left field, it seems possible that Jansen gets a new jersey for 2023. Given his age, he won’t require a lengthy commitment and could hold plenty of appeal for teams that want to bolster the top of the bullpen chart but are scared off the Díaz market.

Kimbrel is likely the most divisive name on this list. He’s already established himself as one of the best closers of all-time, with his 394 career saves placing him seventh on the all-time list. However, he’s been remarkably inconsistent over the past four years. After the 2018 season, Kimbrel turned down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox but teams were apparently unwilling to surrender a draft pick to sign him. He languished on the open market until after the draft, when the Cubs signed him to a three-year deal with an option for 2022.

Kimbrel was awful in both 2019 and 2020, posting ERAs of 6.53 and 5.28, respectively. In 2021, he seemed to get back on track, posting an elite 0.49 ERA before getting traded across town to the White Sox. He then put up a 5.09 ERA on the other side of town, but the Sox still picked up his option and traded him to the Dodgers. In L.A. this year, Kimbrel posted a 3.75 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and 39.7% ground ball rate. Those numbers aren’t dreadful, yet Kimbrel lost his hold on the closer’s job throughout the season and didn’t make the postseason roster.

His market will be tough to peg and could depend on what Kimbrel wants. Is he looking for maximum dollars? A spot on a competitive team? A closer’s role? It might be hard to get all three, based on his recent struggles, which could put him in a position of making tough choices. Would he rather be a closer on a rebuilding team, hoping to get flipped to a contender at the deadline? Or would he prefer to sign with a contender right away, even if he’ll be farther down the depth chart?

Tommy John surgery limited Robertson to just 18 2/3 total innings over 2019-2021 but he bounced back with aplomb in 2022. He signed a one-year deal with the Cubs that came with a $3.5MM base and $1.5MM in incentives. He threw 40 1/3 innings with the Cubs with a 2.23 ERA, 30.9% strikeout rate, 11.5% walk rate and 48.4% ground ball rate, racking up 14 saves in the process.

He got flipped to the Phillies at the deadline and continued along similar lines. His 16.2% walk rate wasn’t ideal, but he still managed a 2.70 ERA in 23 1/3 innings while striking out 30.3% of batters and getting ground balls on 43.4% of balls in play. As the Phillies charged through the postseason, he was able to add even more innings, despite missing the NLDS due to a freak calf injury sustained while celebrating Bryce Harper’s home run in the Wild Card series. He’s already expressed his desire to return for another season in 2023.

Solid Leverage Arms

Estevez missed the entirety of 2018 due to injury but has been a mainstay of the Rockies’ bullpen in the four seasons since then. He racked up at least 10 holds in each of the past three full seasons as well as six in the shortened 2020 campaign. He also scattered 14 saves across those four seasons. He had a very unfortunate 7.50 ERA in 2020 but was at 3.75 in 2019, 4.38 in 2021 and 3.47 in 2022, not bad for a pitcher making Coors Field his home. If you’re wondering about the effect of the ballpark, he has a career 5.57 ERA at home versus a 3.51 on the road.

The 2016 American League Rookie of the Year missed all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and then was awful in 2020. Switching from the rotation to the bullpen paid dividends as he put up a 2.97 ERA in 2021 and a 3.39 mark in 2022. He doesn’t have huge strikeout stuff, with his 22.1% rate this year slightly below average for relievers. However, he does have an ability to keep hitters off balance, finishing this year in the 91st percentile in terms of missing barrels. That’s generally come in high-leverage situations, as he earned 17 saves over the past two seasons along with 34 holds.

Givens has eight seasons of MLB experience under his belt and has been fairly consistent in that time. He posted a 1.80 ERA in his debut but has been mostly in the 3.00-4.00 range since then. In 2022, he split his time between the Cubs and Mets, throwing 61 /3 innings with a 3.38 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate and 42.8% ground ball rate. He notched a pair of saves and seven holds, bringing his career tallies to 31 and 84, respectively.

A consistently solid late-game arm for the Mets, Lugo has five sub-4.00 ERA seasons in his seven-year MLB career. He’s posted mid-3.00’s marks in each of the past two seasons, striking batters out and inducing ground-balls at slightly above-average rates. Lugo’s swinging strike rate bizarrely dipped in 2022, but he’s typically adept at getting whiffs behind a fastball in the 94 MPH range and a curveball with top-of-the-scale spin.

Martin had a quietly fabulous season split between the Cubs and Dodgers. He worked to a 3.05 ERA through 56 innings, punching out an elite 32.9% of opponents against a remarkably low 2.2% walk percentage. The veteran righty has been one of the game’s more underrated middle innings arms for the past four seasons. He virtually never hands out a free pass, owns a fastball in the mid-90s and picks up strikeouts and grounders. Martin’s age is the drawback, as he’ll turn 37 next June, but his performance might be enough to land him a multi-year deal.

A typically solid middle innings arm for the Twins and Mets, May had a down 2022 campaign. He lost a couple months after being diagnosed with a stress reaction in his throwing arm, limiting him to 25 innings across 26 appearances. May posted an unimpressive 5.04 ERA during that stretch, although he paired it with an above-average 27% strikeout rate and a solid 8.1% walk percentage. He still misses bats and averages north of 96 MPH on his fastball, so he should be a solid bounceback target.

Montero rebounded from a rough 2021 season to post a stellar platform campaign in Houston. The righty soaked up 68 1/3 innings, pitching to a 2.37 ERA while fanning 27% of opponents against an 8.5% walk percentage. Montero has also posted a grounder rate above 50% in each of the last two seasons, and his average fastball sits just a bit below 97 MPH. He’s already 32, but that combination of excellent run prevention and accompanying underlying marks should make him one of the more appealing relievers in this year’s class.

Ottavino has had some ups and downs late in his career, but he was downright excellent in 2022. He gave the Mets 65 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball, striking out 30.6% of opponents against a 6.2% walk rate that’s his lowest mark since 2016. Ottavino has never had much trouble missing bats, but he’s battled wobbly control at times. That wasn’t an issue this year, and he thoroughly dominated same-handed opponents. Righties mustered a pitiful .160/.226/.253 line in 177 plate appearances against him. Lefties have long given him trouble, but he’s at least a high-end situational option. He should beat the $4MM guarantee he received in free agency last winter.

Wild Cards

Bradley moved from the rotation to the bullpen in 2017 and then had five consecutive solid seasons. He signed a one-year deal with the Angels for 2022 but dealt with injuries for much of the year. He ended up throwing 18 2/3 innings when able to take the mound and had a 4.82 ERA, a step back from his previous work. There was likely some bad luck in there, especially from his 48.7% strand rate, but his strikeout rate has been below 20% for the past two seasons after being around 25-27% in the previous four. Perhaps he just needs to get healthy in order to rebound but he’ll probably have to settle for less than the $3.75MM he got from the Angels a year ago.

Castro has been bouncing around the league for the past eight seasons, spending time with the Blue Jays, Rockies, Orioles, Mets and Yankees in that time. Those clubs were likely tantalized by Castro’s combination of strikeouts and ground balls, as he has gotten grounders on 49% of balls in play in his career while punching out 25% of batters faced over the past four seasons. However, control has been a consistent issue, with Castro sitting on a career walk rate of 12.3% and having never been below 10% in any single season except for a short stint back in 2016. He’s gotten some leverage work in his career, racking up 46 holds, but never more than nine in a single season. He hasn’t quite earned enough trust to be considered a proper setup option, but he’s still relatively young and could find another gear with a bit more command.

Giles was one of the best relievers in baseball as recently as 2019, when he earned 23 saves for the Blue Jays while pitching to a 1.87 ERA and 39.9% strikeout rate. However, it’s been a rough few years since then, as he only pitched in 3 2/3 innings in 2020 before eventually requiring Tommy John surgery. He missed all of 2021 but seemed to be on track to return to action in 2022. Unfortunately, a finger injury kept him out of action until June, when he threw 4 1/3 innings before returning to the IL with shoulder tightness. He was designated for assignment and signed a minor league deal with the Giants, getting released in August. He’s only been able to throw eight total MLB innings over the past three seasons but was excellent the last time he was healthy enough to get a meaningful stretch of playing time.

Green has pitched for the Yankees in each of the past seven seasons as an effective setup man. He has 11 saves and 52 holds while putting up a 3.17 ERA, 32.5% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 32.3% ground ball rate. He would have been one of the highlights of this list if not for ill-timed Tommy John surgery. Of course, there’s never a good time for a pitcher to require TJS, but news of Green’s procedure came out in May, when he was just a few months away from his first trip to free agency. He will likely miss at least the first half of 2023, depending on his recovery. Pitchers in this situation will sometimes agree to a back-loaded two-year deal, with the signing team aware they are unlikely to recoup much return on their investment in the first season.

Hunter missed most of 2021 due to back surgery and eventually settled for a minor league deal with the Mets. He later cracked the club’s big league roster and tossed 22 1/3 innings with a 2.42 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 40% ground ball rate. He’s generally been a solid performer, including this year, but he hasn’t eclipsed 25 innings in a season since 2018. He will certainly garner interest but the durability issues will likely create some hesitancy.

Jackson had a breakout season in 2021, throwing 63 2/3 innings for Atlanta with a 1.98 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 52.5% ground ball rate. He also added 8 2/3 more frames in the postseason on the way to becoming a World Series champion. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in April of 2022, which wiped out the entire season for him. He should be able to return in 2023, though perhaps not for the entire season, depending on his recovery.

Johnson spent 2019 in Japan and pitched well enough to get himself a two-year deal with a club option from the Padres. Over 2020 and 2021, he tossed 78 2/3 innings for the Friars with a 3.09 ERA, 32.1% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 33% ground ball rate. The club had a $3MM option for 2022 that came with a $1MM buyout, making it a fairly easy call to trigger that net $2MM decision. Unfortunately, Johnson landed on the IL in April due to right forearm tendinitis and didn’t return until September 10. He only threw 14 1/3 innings this year and had a 5.02 ERA in that time. That’s a small sample and his rate stats were relatively unchanged, meaning that he might be able to recapture his previous form.

Kahnle hasn’t pitched much over the past few seasons. He threw just one inning in 2020 and underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of that year, knocking him out for all of last year. Kahnle made it back this past April, but he missed roughly four months battling renewed arm troubles. He managed just 12 2/3 regular season innings, but he looked the part of a high-leverage arm during that time. Kahnle averaged almost 96 MPH on his fastball and pitched to a 2.84 ERA with a 30.4% strikeout rate. He’s a high-risk, high-upside play but was one of the game’s best relievers with the White Sox and Yankees between 2016-17.

Knebel parlayed a 2021 rebound with the Dodgers into a $10MM guarantee with the Phillies last winter. The former Brewers closer didn’t match his best numbers. His 3.43 ERA across 44 2/3 innings was fine, but Knebel only struck out 21.1% of opponents while walking batters at a massive 14.4% clip. He was diagnosed with a tear in his shoulder capsule in August, ending his season. Knebel also lost roughly three months to lat issues in 2021 and missed 2019 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

A starter for most of his career, Williams appeared in 30 games in 2022 with 21 of those being relief appearances. He posted quality results over his 89 2/3 innings, registering a 3.21 ERA along with a 22.6% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 36.2% ground ball rate. He could garner interest as a reliever but could also get another shot at a rotation job.

Depth Options

  • Tyler Beede (30): Once a well-regarded prospect, Beede has yet to click in the majors. In 2022, he split his time between the Giants and Pirates, making five starts but coming out of the bullpen most of the time. He had a 5.14 ERA on the year while striking out just 13.7% of batters faced. He was designated for assignment and cleared waivers in September.
  • Jhoulys Chacin (35): Chacin was decent enough in 2021 that the Rockies re-signed him for one year and $1.25MM. Unfortunately, 2022 was a nightmare, with Chacin posting a 7.61 ERA in 47 1/3 innings. He was released in September and would have to settle for minor league deals this winter.
  • Jesse Chavez (39): Chavez signed with the Cubs on a minor league/split deal and ended up also pitching for the Angels and Braves. Between the three clubs, he threw 69 1/3 innings with a 3.76 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate. His age will limit him to one-year deals but he’s still plenty effective out there.
  • Steve Cishek (37): 2022 was Cishek’s 13th MLB campaign, which he spent with the Nationals. He tossed 66 1/3 innings of 4,21 ERA ball. He still got strikeouts at a solid 25.8% clip, though his 11 home runs surrendered were a career worst. He could potentially get a somewhat similar contract to the one-year, $1.75MM deal he signed with the Nats last offseason, though he has also considered retiring.
  • Alex Colome (34): Colome was a solid closer from 2016 to 2020 but is coming off a second straight poor season. He had a 4.15 ERA in 2021 and saw that climb to 5.74 here in 2022. He played this year on a one-year, $4.1MM deal with the Rockies but will surely have to settle for less in 2023.
  • Jharel Cotton (31): Cotton tossed 43 innings between the Twins and Giants with a 3.56 ERA, 21.5% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate and 29.4% ground ball rate. The Giants put him on waivers in October, with Cotton clearing and electing free agency.
  • Tyler Danish (28): Danish only had 13 innings of MLB experience before 2022, when he logged 40 1/3 for the Red Sox. He put up a 5.13 ERA in that time while striking out just 18.5% of batters faced but limiting walks to a 6.9% clip. He cleared waivers in October and elected free agency.
  • Tyler Duffey (32): Duffey has long been a solid member of the Twins’ bullpen but had a rough 2022. His ERA shot up to 4.91 as he gave up eight homers in just 44 innings. His strikeout rate also fell to 21.1% after being above 30% in 2019 and 2020. He was released in August, eventually signing minor league deals with the Rangers and Yankees.
  • Jeurys Familia (33): Familia has a long track record of effective relief work but the wheels came off in 2022. He split his time between the Phillies and Red Sox and put up a combined 6.90 ERA in 44 1/3 innings. Boston designated him for assignment in September, with Familia rejecting an outright assignment and electing free agency.
  • Will Harris (38): Harris hasn’t pitched since May of 2021 after undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. He was a very effective reliever almost a decade prior to that, but given his age and recent history, it’s unlikely teams will guarantee him significant dollars or a roster spot.
  • Heath Hembree (34): Hembree has had some good seasons in the past but hasn’t posted an ERA below 5.50 since 2019. In 2022, he split his time between the Pirates and Dodgers, throwing 22 innings with a 7.36 ERA. He was designated for assignment by the Dodgers in September before clearing waivers and electing free agency.
  • Dominic Leone (32): Leone posted a 4.01 ERA through 49 1/3 innings with the Giants this year. He didn’t have eye-catching strikeout and walk marks, but he induced swinging strikes at a fantastic 18.1% clip. He’s an interesting buy-low target, although he was let go in September after hitting the injured list with an elbow issue.
  • Ian Kennedy (38): Kennedy signed with the Diamondbacks last offseason, but his stint in the desert didn’t go as planned. He posted a 5.36 ERA across 50 1/3 innings while allowing almost two home runs per nine innings.
  • Mike Mayers (31): Mayers was really good over 2020 and 2021, throwing 105 innings with a 3.34 ERA and 30.5% strikeout rate. He couldn’t sustain it in 2022, however, as his strikeout rate dropped to 20.2% and his ERA jumped to 5.68. The Angels designated him for assignment in September.
  • Keynan Middleton (29): Middleton pitched for the Diamondbacks in 2022, logging 17 frames with a 5.29 ERA. His 4.3% walk rate in that time was excellent, though he also allowed five homers in that stretch.
  • Darren O’Day (40): The submariner O’Day put up a 4.15 ERA across 21 2/3 innings with the Braves this season. Despite a mid-80s fastball, he still misses bats thanks to his unconventional arm angle.
  • Wily Peralta (34): Peralta put up a 2.58 ERA through 38 1/3 innings for the Tigers. It wasn’t supported by his lackluster strikeout and walk rates, and Detroit cut him loose in August.
  • David Phelps (36): Phelps soaked up 63 2/3 frames for the Blue Jays with a 2.83 ERA. He had a useful 23.5% strikeout rate, but he walked batters at an elevated 11.4% clip and was extremely fortunate to only surrender two home runs despite a modest 35.5% grounder percentage.
  • Erasmo Ramirez (33): Ramirez was a capable long relief option for the Nationals. He absorbed 86 1/3 innings over 60 outings, putting up a 2.92 ERA in spite of a modest 17.6% strikeout rate.
  • Noe Ramirez (33): Ramirez posted an ERA of exactly 3.00 in both 2020 and 2021 but saw that number jump to 5.22 in 2022. His strikeout rate actually increased, but he also allowed more walks and more homers.
  • Garrett Richards (35): Richards signed with the Rangers in Spring Training. He was let go in August after putting up a 5.27 ERA through 42 2/3 innings. Richards induced ground-balls at a productive 52.6% clip but didn’t miss many bats.
  • Hansel Robles (32): Robles was hit hard in Boston, posting a 5.84 ERA across 24 2/3 innings with subpar strikeout and walk numbers. He was released in August and finished the year in Triple-A with the Dodgers.
  • Sergio Romo (40): The veteran slider specialist pitched 18 innings between the Mariners and Blue Jays this year. He gave up a 7.50 ERA and was unsigned for the second half.
  • Hirokazu Sawamura (35): Sawamura put up a 3.73 ERA through 50 2/3 innings for the Red Sox. He throws hard and got a fair number of ground-balls, but he didn’t have especially strong strikeout and walk numbers. Boston released him in September.
  • Bryan Shaw (35): Shaw’s a bullpen workhorse, but his 2022 season with the Guardians was unspectacular. He allowed a 5.40 ERA through 58 1/3 innings and was outrighted off the 40-man roster just before the playoffs.
  • Joe Smith (39): A submariner, Smith had some success as recently as 2019. He’s had a tough go the past couple years, including a 4.61 ERA across 27 1/3 innings with the Twins in 2022. Minnesota released him in August.
  • Craig Stammen (39): A veteran grounder specialist, Stammen has soaked up plenty of innings for the Padres in recent years. His 2022 season wasn’t his best, as he allowed a 4.43 ERA over 40 2/3 innings. He still induced grounders on half the batted balls he surrendered, but he gave up a number of homers and was scratched for the playoffs.
  • Hunter Strickland (34): Strickland spent the year in Cincinnati, posting a 4.91 ERA through 62 1/3 frames. He throws in the mid-90s but had an 11.6% walk rate.
  • Vince Velasquez (31): Velasquez came out of the bullpen for 18 of 27 appearances with the White Sox this year. The former Phillies starter logged a 4.25 ERA in 36 innings of relief.
  • J.B. Wendelken (30): Wendelken had a really nice stretch of results from 2018 to 2020 but put up an ERA of 4.33 in 2021 and then 5.28 in 2022. His 29.2% strikeout rate from 2020 dropped to 20.1% and then 17.2% in the two most recent seasons. He was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks in July and seemed to get back on track in the minors, posting a 2.63 ERA with 35.1% strikeout rate.
  • Matt Wisler (30): Wisler pitched 44 innings with the Rays. He had an excellent 2.25 ERA but was nevertheless let go in September. That’s largely an acknowledgement of his modest 19.9% strikeout rate and a 10.8% swinging strike rate that, while decent, is down a few points from prior seasons.
  • Nick Wittgren (32): Wittgren worked 29 innings for the Cardinals this year. He posted a 5.90 ERA with a 12.7% strikeout percentage and was released in July.

Players With Options

Acquired by the Blue Jays from the Marlins at the deadline, Bass is coming off the best season of his career. He put up a 1.54 ERA in 70 1/3 innings between the two clubs. Some of that is good luck, as he had a .256 BABIP and 89.5% strand rate. However, he also struck out 26.5% of batters faced, almost four ticks above his previous personal best. His 7.3% walk rate was also the lowest in years. It will be hard for him to be quite that good going forward, but he’s been a solid reliever for five years running and is a bargain at this price.

Boxberger threw 64 innings for the Brewers in 2022, ending up with a 2.95 ERA , 25.4% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 34.3% ground ball rate. The ERA is nice but all three of those rate stats moved the wrong direction compared to his 2021 numbers. Still, this is a net $2.25MM decision, a fairly reasonable price for a solid veteran coming off three straight good years. The Brewers seem to have a tight payroll this year and might look for creative ways to save money, but if they don’t want to pay Boxberger, they should be able to pick up this option and line up a trade with a team that does.

Leclerc was dominant enough in 2018 to get a four-year extension from the Rangers, which included club options for 2023 and 2024. He had a poor season in the first year of the deal and then missed most of 2020 and 2021 due to Tommy John surgery. He got things back on track in 2022, throwing 47 2/3 innings with a 2.83 ERA and 27.3% strikeout rate. That’s not quite where he was at his peak but he got stronger as the season went along, even earning a few saves and holds down the stretch. If the club decides to give him another go, they can retain him again for 2024 via a $6.25MM club option that again has a $750K buyout.

  • Nick Martinez (32), can opt out of final three years and $18.5MM in favor of $1.5MM buyout

Martinez pitched in Japan from 2018 to 2021, posting quality results and earning himself a four-year, $25.5MM deal from the Padres. However, that deal was actually structured as a one-year contract followed by a series of player options, meaning Martinez can return to free agency now if he wants. He posted a 4.30 ERA as a starter and then got bumped to the bullpen, putting up a much stronger 2.67 ERA there. He’s likely get lots of interest from bullpen-needy teams but reportedly wants a rotation gig.

Nelson underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2021 and then was re-signed by the Dodgers, with the club knowing they were unlikely to see him in 2022. The reasoning for the gamble was pretty clear since he was excellent prior to the surgery. He posted a 1.86 ERA in 29 innings in 2021, striking out 37.9% of batters faced. If the Dodgers expect him to be healthy at any point next year, this is a no-brainer to be picked up.

Suarez had never pitched in the majors prior to 2022, spending the previous five seasons in Japan. The Padres then signed him to a one-year deal with a player option for 2023. Suarez excelled in his 47 2/3 innings, posting a 2.27 ERA with a 31.9% strikeout rate. The 11% walk rate was a little on the high side, but it didn’t stop Suarez from earning high-leverage opportunities. He grabbed one save and 11 holds in the regular season and then three more holds in the playoffs. He’s got a net $4MM decision to make but should be able to easily top that mark on the open market.

Previous installments: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Corner outfields, Center Field, Designated Hitter, Starting Pitcher, Left-Handed Relief

AL Notes: Verdugo, Mike Maddux, Rays’ Coaching Shuffle

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Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com has floated Alex Verdugo’s name as a potential trade candidate this offseason. Verdugo, age-26, is coming off a season in which he regressed on all fronts of his game. From 2021 to 2022, Verdugo’s wRC+ dipped from 107 to 103, all of the figures in his slash decreased (.289/.351/.426 to .280/.328/.405), he lost .2 ft/s in sprint speed, and went from +1 DRS in 2021 to -4 DRS in 2022. Cotillo adds that according to a source, Red Sox brass were frustrated with his decision to bulk up in the offseason, a choice Verdugo made with the intention of hitting for more power. As evident by his decreased slugging and the fact that his weight has seemingly slowed him down on the bases and in the outfield, the choice to get bigger appears to have hindered Verdugo’s development more than it has helped him.

Speculation regarding a potential Verdugo trade comes as the Red Sox are in need of some help in the outfield. As currently constructed, Verdugo and Kiké Hernandez are Boston’s only outfield locks. Rob Refsnyder and Jarren Duran are decent depth options, but don’t provide as much thump as external options perhaps would, and a Verdugo-Hernandez-Refsnyder/Duran combo would leave Boston’s outfield lacking in offensive firepower. If the Red Sox do trade Verdugo, it would probably come after Boston goes out and gets someone on the free agent market or via trade to lock down a corner outfield spot. Verdugo could fetch the Sox a decent return, and may be flipped to improve Boston’s bullpen, which struggled in 2022. With Verdugo set for a pay raise in his second year of arbitration, it will not be entirely surprising if Chaim Bloom decides to move on from one of the centerpieces of Boston’s return from the Mookie Betts trade.

Some other news from around the AL:

  • Mike Maddux is interested in rejoining the Rangers as their pitching coach, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The Rangers fired Doug Mathis and re-assigned Brendan Sagara, who had served as co-pitching coaches for 2022, less than twenty-four hours after the end of the 2023 season. Maddux previously served as Rangers pitching coach from 2009 to 2015, and recently left his post as pitching coach of the Cardinals. Grant notes that Maddux lives in the Dallas area, adding that the Rangers could pair a veteran coach, like Maddux, with someone else who is “more in tune with biomechanics and the art of pitch design” to co-lead the Rangers staff.
  • Brady Williams, manager of Triple-A Durham for the Rays, will be promoted to big league staff as part of the fall out from the Royals’ managerial hiring of former Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. With Quatraro out, third base coach Rodney Linares is expected to become the new bench coach. It is unclear as to what role Williams will assume with the Rays in what will be his first opportunity to coach in the big leagues. Williams has spent his entire coaching career within the Rays organization, managing at Short-Season Hudson Valley, Single-A Bowling Green, Advanced-A Charlotte, and Double-A Montgomery, as well as Durham before getting the call to the majors.

Brewers Owner Mark Attanasio Discusses Upcoming Offseason

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On Friday, the Brewers released a video of chairman and principal owner Mark Attanasio discussing a wide variety of topics pertaining to the club’s upcoming offseason with broadcaster Brian Anderson via fan-submitted questions. Among Attanasio’s more interesting answers was his response to a question about which minor leaguers he expected to appear in Milwaukee in 2023, to which he stated that the Brewers “might be very active this winter, and depending on which direction we [the Brewers] are active may create openings for guys” (h/t to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

Attanasio is most likely referring to which positional area Milwaukee decides to address, as opposed to whether or not they will make moves to try and remain competitive. Nonetheless, Attanasio’s quote will not inspire confidence in Brewers fans who are hungry to see Milwaukee make major additions in the offseason. In a year in which a competitive Brewers team traded away Josh Hader, only to finish one game out of the final postseason spot, some of the questions submitted by fans seemed to reflect a concern regarding the front office’s commitment to winning. In fairness, the Brewers made the playoffs in four of the last five seasons and have built what has become a perennial division contender on a payroll that has consistently ranked well below the league median. The most important question for Milwaukee does not appear to be whether or not the front office is committed to putting a winning team on the field, but rather whether their core group of players, the same ones that are taking up most of the payroll, are capable of delivering another deep postseason run.

Roster Resource projects the club for a 2023 payroll of $118MM, which is already fairly high for them. The club set a franchise record in 2022 with an Opening Day payroll of $132MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. The Brew Crew enters this offseason with a lot of question marks as to who will fill out their starting lineup. Milwaukee can create some payroll wiggle room by declining Kolten Wong’s $10MM option and non-tendering Hunter Renfroe (who MLBTR projects to make $11.2MM in 2023), but would then be faced with holes in two outfield spots, as well as at second base. Brice Turang and Garrett Mitchell could plug in for the Brewers if Wong and Renfroe depart, but that would put a lot of the burden of offensive success on young players who have yet to establish themselves in the big leagues. There are some lower-cost free agent outfielders that might entice the Brewers, but the market for second basemen is pretty thin. As such, it’s difficult to envision Milwaukee making a major improvement over what they already have, considering their financial restrictions and reluctance for parting with prospects.

Attanasio expressed confidence in the core group of players that have led the Brewers over the last few years, noting that he feels like the club is “really well set up for next year.” The success or failure of said core will likely determine whether or not Milwaukee gets back to the playoffs. Fortunately, there’s no reason to think that the trio of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta won’t continue to baffle hitters. That being said, if the 2023 Brewers are going to score runs to support their pitching staff, Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez will have at least replicate their production from last season, and Christian Yelich will have to look more like he did in 2018-2019. If Milwaukee truly is active this winter, they may have to get creative in how they make improvements to their roster.

Big Hype Prospects: Ginn, Julien, Pages, Veen, Rocker

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Voting for the final participants of the Fall Stars Game is underway. The game itself is scheduled for 3pm CT on Sunday, November 6. If you happen to be in the area, swing by the game and meet up with participants of the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference hosted by Baseball HQ. Say hello from me (full disclosure, I am a staff writer with HQ).

Five Big Hype Prospects

J.T. Ginn, 23, SP, OAK (AA)
AFL: 12 IP, 4 BB, 12 K, 2.25 ERA

A former second-round pick of the New York Mets, the Athletics acquired Ginn in the Chris Bassitt trade. The right-hander is coming off a mixed performance in Double-A where he posted 10.44 K/9, 3.57 BB/9, a 56.6 percent ground ball rate, and a painful 6.11 ERA. Typically, pitchers who keep the ball on the ground while recording strikeouts and limiting walks represent a stable and effective asset class. Ginn’s season was cut short due to injury – hence his inclusion in the AFL. He only pitched 35.1 innings in 10 Double-A starts. Ginn is scheduled to pitch today (Friday) and is currently defending a brief scoreless streak. He appears to have a sufficient repertoire for starting though he might revert to relief if his command proves insufficient. While pitchers are never truly “can’t miss,” I consider Ginn to be a high-probability future Major Leaguer.

Edouard Julien, 23, 2B, MIN (AA)
AFL: 81 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .361/.519/.689

Far and away the top-performing hitter in the AFL, Julien appears to have turned a corner in his development. For older prospects like Julien, the fall league is for working on new skills. In his case, doing damage to pitches within the strike zone. He’s already proven to have an exceptional eye with enough contact skills to confidently take early-count strikes. However, to transition to the Majors, he’ll need to jump on those early-count cookies rather than let them pass. According to a contact, this is what he’s focusing on this fall. His 1.208 OPS suggests he’s succeeding. In addition to leading the league in OPS and walks, he’s tied for the lead in runs scored (19) and home runs (5). He’s hit all five of his home runs in the last 15 days.

For those keeping track at home, this is the same adjustment Gunnar Henderson made to launch his meteoric rise this season. That’s not to say Julien is physically comparable to Henderson, only that he has the raw ingredients to leap into the Top 100 prospects via a similar path.

Andy Pages, 21, OF, LAD (AA)
AFL: 83 PA, 4 HR, 1 SB, .286/.373/.486

If Pages has a thing to work on, it’s his strikeout rate. Thus far, he’s managed a lovely 12 percent strikeout rate this fall. He posted a 24.5 percent strikeout rate each of the last two seasons. We’ve covered Pages a few times in this column, and there’s no reason to believe anything has changed in his profile. He has average or better plate discipline, considerable raw power, and a swing geared for frequently pulled, fly ball contact. The batting profile reads similarly to early-career Rhys Hoskins. Pages has more raw power and a less discerning eye than the Phillies first baseman. He’s also far more athletic.

Pages is scheduled to participate in the Fall Stars Home Run Derby.

Zac Veen, 20, OF, COL (AA)
AFL: 85 PA, 1 HR, 16 SB, .353/.471/.456

Veen, who we touched upon during the first week of AFL coverage, remains the stolen base leader roughly one month into the season. Although he hasn’t hit for much power, the rest of his performance is encouraging. He’s recorded 14 walks compared to just six strikeouts. During the regular season, Veen showed plus discipline in High- and Double-A. However, he struggled to make contact, especially at Double-A. His AFL performance helps to put that in context. The 20-year-old was probably overmatched against older competition.

A strong showing in the upper minors next season could yield a 2023 Major League debut. The speedy outfielder is well-built for Coors Field. While we tend to think of the venue as a power haven, it bolsters all types of hitting. Besides, most scouts believe Veen will grow into considerable pop.

Kumar Rocker, 22, SP, TEX (—)
AFL: 7.2 IP, 9 BB, 8 K, 4.70 ERA

A late addition to the AFL roster, this represents Rocker’s first affiliated action. He got off to a rough start, uncorking multiple walks and wild pitches. He’s since settled down over his last two appearances, working 5.2 innings with four hits, one run, two walks, and all eight of his strikeouts. Rocker’s draft history makes for fascinating reading. Throughout his amateur prospectdom, he’s brought different arm slots and pitch mixes. The one unifying detail is a tendency for erratic command. On his best days, he looks like a surefire Major League workhorse. On his worst, he is indistinguishable from the hundreds of live-armed minor leaguers who have yet to (and might never) click on the lightbulb.

Five More

Connor Thomas, STL (24): The current strikeout leader by a healthy margin, Thomas pitched a five-inning, seven-strikeout gem since our last update. The southpaw is Rule 5 eligible and has almost certainly played his way into being selected if the Cardinals do not protect him. They appear to have sufficient roster flexibility to do so.

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Also since our last update, Reifert has added three more no-hit innings along with seven strikeouts. That puts him at 10.2 no-hit innings on the season with 22 strikeouts. Four walks represent the lone blemish to his stat line. Reifert has the third-most strikeouts in the AFL despite throwing fewer than half the innings of Thomas.

Carlos De La Cruz, PHI (22): A mammoth human of roughly the size and shape of Aaron Judge, De La Cruz is a free-swinging center fielder with considerable power. He’s performed well this fall while still showing dreadful feel for the strike zone. His 24 strikeouts in 59 plate appearances (40.6% K%) rate as one of the worst performances in the AFL. Conversely, his .302/.373/.547 triple-slash with 16 hits, three home runs, and two triples is indicative of his quality of contact when he does connect.

Cal Conley, ATL (23): A switch-hitting future utility man who has only advanced to High-A, Conley is one of the finalists for a spot on the Fall Stars roster. He split the year between Low- and High-A, posting a roughly league-average batting line. In 83 plate appearances this fall, he’s batting .304/.422/.551 with two home runs, three triples, five doubles, and nine steals. Conley has the sixth-highest OPS over the last 15 days.

Mason Miller, OAK (24): Miller is a fireballer, regularly living in the triple-digits with his fastball. Over the last 15 days, he’s made two three-inning starts, holding opponents to just two hits, no walks, and nine strikeouts. Thus far in his professional career, he’s been used as a short-burst starter. He’s expected to eventually transition to the bullpen. His third pitch is a below-average changeup, and he also struggles with command. He fills the strike zone and lets his stuff overwhelm hitters rather than locating it.

Yankees Notes: Judge Free Agency, LeMahieu, Kiner-Falefa

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Brian Cashman addressed reporters, including The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, for the first time following the Yankees’ ALCS defeat to the Houston Astros. Cashman’s future was among the topics discussed, but the GM also took time to provide some insight on various areas of the playing roster.

Aaron Judge’s future with the organization will be the biggest question heading into the off-season, and Cashman says the team would ideally get a deal done soon if they’re to re-sign him. Judge is a strong favorite for AL MVP after hitting 62 home runs and posting a .311/.425/.686 slash line. A worst case scenario for the Yankees would be for them to miss out on Judge after his free agency drags long into the off-season and likely replacements have since signed elsewhere, so it makes sense that Cashman would prefer business to be completed swiftly.

“He’s gonna dictate the dance steps to his free agency because he’s earned the right to get there,” Cashman said. “We’ll see how it plays out. He’s the most important. If he came in here today and said, ‘I’m signing up. Let’s go,’ there’s still work to be done.”

Cashman wouldn’t offer much insight into the process, offering a “no comment” when asked if the Yankees and Judge had engaged in discussion since the end of the season. He also noted it’s more of a decision for Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner as well. Cashman’s clearly stated he wants Judge back, but the ultimate decision will land at Steinbrenner’s feet as to how big of a contract he’s willing to hand out.

DJ LeMahieu struggled with a foot injury late in the regular season and wound up missing the entire post-season. The Yankees haven’t settled on a path forward for managing that injury in the off-season, but surgery remains on the table. LeMahieu posted a .261./.357/.377 line with 12 home runs this season, well short of the MVP-level offensive output he produced for the Yankees during 2019-20. The Yankees will hope a full recovery from the injury will allow LeMahieu to post better offensive numbers, but he’ll also turn 35 in 2023 and it’s perhaps unreasonable to expect much bounceback for the veteran. With four years and $60MM remaining on his contract, he’ll certainly be back in pinstripes though, but just where he fits in is up in the air and may depend on how the off-season plays out.

LeMahieu’s played plenty of first base with the Yankees, but that’s become less of a need since Anthony Rizzo joined the team last season. It’s already been reported that Rizzo is expected to decline his $16MM player option for 2023. It’s not much of a surprise given Rizzo had a strong season and is expected to benefit from shift restrictions next year. Cashman stated the Yankees will seek to re-sign Rizzo if he opts out. That could come in the form of a qualifying offer, but it seems likely Rizzo would decline that in favor of a multi-year deal.

The left side of the infield drew plenty of criticism throughout the season, and particularly during the playoffs, but Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are both controlled for 2023. Donaldson is owed $21.75MM while Kiner-Falefa is into his final year of arbitration and is predicted to make $6.5MM per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Donaldson ranked eighth among qualified third basemen in Outs Above Average, but scuffled with the bat, hitting just .222/.308/.374 with 15 home runs. Kiner-Falefa was never expected to be a major offensive contributor, but defensive metrics were mixed on his glove work at shortstop, ranging from 28th in Outs Above Average to seventh in Defensive Runs Saved. While a change at third might be tricky given Donaldson’s significant salary, Cashman’s left the door open for change at shortstop, particularly given the impressive showing rookies Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza made down the stretch. The Yankees also have top prospect Anthony Volpe getting close to the majors.

“I think Kiner was along the lines of what we expected,” Cashman said. “It gave us an opportunity to bridge the gap while the kids continued to develop because everybody in the industry, fans and teams alike, recognize that we have some pretty impactful prospects that we’re developing and needed some more time.”

In other bits of info from Cashman’s press conference, he said he wouldn’t discuss trading players but noted that outfielder Aaron Hicks would be back and that the team felt he still had something to offer. Hicks hit .216/.330/.313 in his age-32 campaign, and has $30.4MM and at least three years remaining on his contract. It’s worth adding here that manager Aaron Boone said today he wants to utilize Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield a couple of times a week next season. Stanton has largely played as a designated hitter of late, but factoring him into the outfield depth chart more regularly would affect Hicks’ playing time.

The Yankees are also hoping to bring back pitching coach Matt Blake. Hired out of Cleveland after the Yankees parted ways with Larry Rothschild in 2019, Blake is out of contract. The Yankees ranked third in the majors in team ERA with a 3.30 mark this year, behind only the Dodgers and Astros.

Latest On Brian Cashman’s Future

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Brian Cashman’s contract with the Yankees officially ended on October 31, but while he’s no longer an employee of the team, he continues to act as GM and the expectation is his contract will be extended, per Andy Martino of SNY. Jon Heyman of the NY Post is even more certain, citing a source saying there’s a “100 percent” chance Cashman returns.

Cashman has been with the Yankees since 1986, and served as their GM since 1998. During that time the team has gone to the World Series seven times, winning four championships, the last of which came in 2009. They’ve made the playoffs each of the past six seasons, but there’s been some frustration among Yankees fans over the team’s inability to get back to the World Series lately. That frustration does not appear to extend to owner Hal Steinbrenner though, and Martino cites the strong bond between Cashman and the Steinbrenners as reason to believe that even if a split were to happen, it would be amicable.

The expectation is that a renewal will happen, although Martino reports that while Cashman and Steinbrenner have discussed the future of the franchise recently, they haven’t talked on contract terms. Cashman’s previous contract was a five-year, $25MM deal signed in December of 2017. Nonetheless, it seems a near formality that Cashman’s contract will be renewed, and the Yankees can turn their attention to the playing roster moving forward, beginning with the enormous task of trying to re-sign Aaron Judge.

Rangers In Contact With Former Royals GM Dayton Moore

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Rangers general manager Chris Young has acknowledged he’s been in contact with former Royals general manager Dayton Moore and “would welcome” the opportunity to work with him, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds that industry sources have continued to link Moore with the Rangers. Young pitched for the Royals between 2015-17 and won the World Series while Moore was GM there.

Moore began his front office career as a scout for the Braves, and worked his way up within that organization before the Royals hired him to be their GM in 2006. He held that position until 2021, rebuilding a roster that lost 100 games in his first season and went to the World Series in 2014 and 2015, when they won their second championship. He survived a change of ownership in 2019, and the Royals promoted him to president of baseball operations in earlier this year, but he was fired in September. After a number of years of rebuilding after their championship season, the Royals had looked to have taken a step forward in 2021 winning 74 games, but they fell back again in 2022 and wound up with just 65 wins.

It’s unclear what role the Rangers would have for Moore. Young stated they did not plan to hire a general manager below him, and Grant speculates that a senior advisor position seems most likely. If he does join, Moore would join a Rangers team trying to break out of a lengthy rebuild, having gone 68-94 in 2022 for their sixth-straight losing season.

 

Joe Barlow Undergoes Minor Wrist Surgery

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Rangers reliever Joe Barlow has undergone a minor surgery to separate two tendons in his right wrist, according to Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. Barlow is expected to be ready by spring training. The issue contributed to the blister issues that affected the right hander throughout the season, and landed him on the IL twice.

An eleventh round pick in the 2016 draft, Barlow threw 35 innings out of the Rangers bullpen in 2022, pitching to a 3.86 ERA. That was a decent drop from his rookie campaign in 2021, when Barlow pitched to a 1.55 ERA over 29 innings, though the blister problems may well have played a significant part in that. While Barlow’s walk rate remained steady, his strikeout rate dipped (24.3% to 19.2%) and his home run rate increased (0.6 HR/9 to 1.3 HR/9).

He had earned the team’s closer role to start the campaign, and converted 13 of 17 save opportunities, but was demoted from the role shortly before landing on the IL in July. The Rangers will hope the surgery alleviates those blister problems, and allows Barlow to return to being a strong contributor out of their bullpen.

 

Gosuke Katoh Signs With NPB’s Nippon-Ham Fighters

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Infielder Gosuke Katoh has signed with the Nippon-Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, the team announced (h/t to the Kyoto News). It’s the first NPB stint for Katoh, who made his major league debut this past season after nine years in the minors. Katoh is represented by John Boggs & Associates.

A second-round pick of the Yankees in 2013, Katoh played in the organization through the end of 2019. He didn’t reach the big leagues and qualified for minor league free agency, bouncing between the Marlins and Padres systems before landing with the Blue Jays last offseason. Katoh cracked Toronto’s big league club out of Spring Training, but he appeared in just eight MLB games before being waived in early May. He landed with the Mets and spent the remainder of the season with their top affiliate in Syracuse, hitting .223/.310/.383 across 324 plate appearances.

New York outrighted Katoh off their 40-man roster over the summer, and he was eligible for minor league free agency this winter. Another crack with an affiliated team would have come on a minor league deal with a non-roster invitation to Spring Training. His new deal with the Fighters assuredly comes with a much stronger base salary than he’d have gotten had he played next year in Triple-A and gives him an opportunity to suit up at Japan’s highest level.

Katoh, notably, is a California native. Despite having been born and raised in the United States, he’s a dual U.S. – Japanese citizen based on his Japanese heritage. As a report from The Mainichi explains, all Japanese citizens — regardless of their place of residence or professional experience — are subject to the NPB draft if they wish to play in the league. Katoh, therefore, was part of last month’s draft alongside a number of younger, amateur players. The Fighters, coincidentally Katoh’s favorite team from childhood, selected him in the third round and agreed to terms. As a Japanese citizen, he will not count against NPB’s limit of four foreign players per roster.

It’s possible Katoh plays well enough in Japan to draw some new big league interest down the line. For now, he’ll join the Fighters as an infield option with multi-positional experience and a career .270/.360/.434 line at the Triple-A level.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

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