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How Many $100 Million Contracts Are Left This Offseason?

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23 years ago, the Dodgers signed righty Kevin Brown to a seven-year, $105MM deal in advance of his age-34 season.  It was the first baseball contract to break the $100MM barrier.  The deal famously included a charter jet to fly Brown’s family from Georgia to Los Angeles 12 times per season.  Sandy Alderson, then working for the commissioner’s office, called the deal “an affront and an insult to the commissioner of baseball.”  Rivals were also displeased with Dodgers GM Kevin Malone, believing other bidders were not close.

Due to inflation and increases in MLB revenue, $300MM is now the top of the market round number, and nine players have crossed that barrier.  $100MM is the realm of the very good, not superstar territory.  Still, that round number still holds some psychological significance.  This winter Corey Seager signed for $325MM, while Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Kevin Gausman have signed in the $110-175MM range.

That’s six $100MM contracts so far this winter, which we haven’t seen since seven players broke the barrier following the 2015 season.  How many more $100M deals will be struck once the lockout ends, with 20 of our top 50 free agents still on the board?

There’s a general expectation that we’ll see a free agent frenzy of sorts when the lockout ends, with the possibility that most signings will have to occur in a period of less than one month.  That pressure should make for an action-packed spring training/hot stove period.  In theory, we could see increased spending once new competitive balance tax thresholds are known and 15 National League designated hitter jobs are potentially added.  But for the most part, I think teams already have an idea of what they think each free agent is worth, and I don’t think that’s going to change much post-lockout.

I see a total of eight remaining free agents with at least some plausible chance to reach $100MM, if I’m generous.  Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman are locks.  Other candidates include Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, and Nick Castellanos, who were all projected by MLBTR in November to top the $100MM barrier.  We’ll also throw Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Rodon, and Seiya Suzuki in the mix, even though they seem like long shots.   In the poll below, vote for all the players you think will sign a contract worth $100MM or more before the season begins.  Click here for a direct link to the poll, and here for the results.

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Which Teams Are Most Likely To Acquire Matt Olson?

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The A’s are generally expected to make a few marquee players available after the lockout in an effort to trim payroll. If Oakland does embark on something of an organizational reboot, Matt Olson seems one of the likelier players to wind up elsewhere. Projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $12MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season, Olson might be the costliest player on the A’s books.

Trading Olson is the most straightforward way to reduce payroll, but he’d still be in plenty of demand around the league. A $12MM salary is well below market value for a two-time Gold Glove winning first baseman coming off a .271/.371/.540 showing that earned him an eighth-place finish in AL MVP balloting. And with another season of below-market club control remaining thereafter (barring changes to the service structure in the next collective bargaining agreement), landing Olson would probably require sending multiple highly-regarded young players back to Oakland.

Which teams are in the best position to pull off the blockbuster if the A’s make Olson available? Before looking at the best fits, we can remove a few teams from consideration. The Pirates, Orioles and Diamondbacks aren’t in the competitive window to trade for a player with two years of control. The same is probably true of the Nationals and Cubs, barring an unexpected post-lockout push for immediate contention. The Rays’ projected 2022 payroll is already $18MM higher than last year’s season-opening mark. They’re probably not taking on a $12MM salary this winter; the Reds have spent all offseason signaling a desire to cut spending.

Which teams seem to be the most plausible landing spots?

Best Fits For A Deal

  • Braves — Are the Braves finally going to end their stalemate with Freddie Freeman after the lockout? If he signs somewhere else, they’ll need a first baseman. Olson is reportedly on their radar as a possible replacement.
  • Brewers — The Brewers have a championship-caliber pitching staff, but the offense has been middle-of-the-pack. Rowdy Tellez was alright after coming over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade, but his career track record is mixed. Olson would be a definitive upgrade, and Tellez could stick around as a possible designated hitter option if the universal DH is included in the next CBA. The question is whether Milwaukee — currently projected for a payroll around $20MM north of last season’s Opening Day mark — would take on a salary in this range, but he’s a perfect fit for the roster.
  • Giants — The Giants are only a strong fit in the event of a universal DH. Otherwise, first base belongs to Brandon Belt. If there’s an NL DH, acquiring Olson from their crosstown rivals and giving Belt more time at DH would be a boon to an already excellent offense, and it might help the 33-year-old Belt stay healthy all season.
  • Mariners — The Mariners are known to be looking for another bat. Acquiring Olson and pushing Ty France to DH would fill that void, and Seattle has the payroll space to accommodate such a move. The potential holdup? Seattle’s loath to part with their top prospects, and that might be especially true in an intra-divisional trade.
  • Rangers — The Rangers have looked into the possibility of an Olson deal. They’ve been ultra-aggressive this winter but still look to be shy of 2022 contention. Landing Olson and pushing Nathaniel Lowe to DH would complete perhaps the sport’s top infield, although there’d still be major question marks about the pitching staff. As with Seattle, there are possible intra-divisional trade complications to consider.
  • Twins — The Twins have been quieter than expected this winter. They should have payroll flexibility, though, and Miguel Sanó isn’t coming off a great season. Upgrading the rotation seems like the priority in Minnesota, but the free agent starting pitching market has been largely picked clean. Might they pivot and add to an already-strong offense to try to compensate for the lackluster starting staff?
  • Yankees — The Yankees have been speculated upon as a potential landing spot for much of the winter, with good reason. Luke Voit dealt with a series of injuries last season, and the Yankees seemed sufficiently discouraged with his health outlook to land Anthony Rizzo at the trade deadline. Rizzo’s now a free agent, and while New York could opt to roll with Voit again, there’s little question Olson would at least be a marked defensive upgrade.

Plausible But Longer Odds

  • Dodgers — One can seemingly never rule the Dodgers out on stars. But this probably requires an NL designated hitter to pull off, given the presences of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux between first and second base.
  • Guardians — A $12MM salary might wind up being too hefty for the Guardians. Yet they only have $11MM in guaranteed money on the books this year, with an estimated $49MM in commitments after accounting for arbitration projections. This is a franchise that has exceeded nine figures in the past, and incumbent first baseman Bobby Bradley struck out in 35.5% of his plate appearances last year.
  • Marlins — The Marlins could supplant Jesús Aguilar at first, and Olson would be a massive upgrade to a lineup that struggled in 2021. Miami has plenty of young pitching that might appeal to Oakland. The Fish seem more focused on outfield help, but an Olson trade makes some sense if they pivot back to the dirt.
  • Padres — The Padres tend to act boldly, and they could stand to upgrade over Eric Hosmer. With a projected payroll approaching $200MM, it’s not clear how much further ownership’s willing to spend. Landing Olson might require first shedding the bulk of Hosmer’s contract in a separate trade, but that’d require parting with some prospect talent even before considering the package of young players San Diego would need to send to Oakland.
  • Phillies — An NL DH could theoretically bring Olson into play, with Rhys Hoskins assuming the bat-only role. Shortstop, third base, two outfield spots and the bullpen are all arguably bigger concerns for Philadelphia though.
  • Red Sox — The Red Sox could supplant Bobby Dalbec at first base this year. With J.D. Martinez slated to hit free agency next winter, top prospect Triston Casas could break in as a DH in 2023. Yet with clearer needs in the bullpen and either at second base or in the outfield, Olson to Boston feels like a longshot.

Teams With More Pressing Needs

  • Angels — Jared Walsh broke out with an All-Star campaign in 2021 and should have first base accounted for. Designated hitter? That’s occupied by the reigning AL MVP.
  • Astros — Yuli Gurriel is back at first base after winning the batting title. Yordan Álvarez is locked in at DH.
  • Blue Jays — The Blue Jays have the reigning MVP runner-up, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., at first base. It’s unlikely they’d want Guerrero to become a full-time DH this early in his career. One could argue for Toronto acquiring Olson and kicking Guerrero back to third base, but it’s probably best to leave the young star at first and try to upgrade the other infield spots more directly.
  • Cardinals — The Cardinals have Paul Goldschmidt at first base and some young options (Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez) for the possible DH spot.
  • Mets — The Mets have Pete Alonso at first and a number of offense-minded players already on the roster who could step into a DH role if needed.
  • Rockies — The Rockies just extended C.J. Cron. If the new CBA contains a universal DH, could they acquire Olson and take Cron off defense? That seems far-fetched, even for a Colorado team that views itself closer to contention than most outside observers would.
  • Royals — The Royals seem to be prioritizing bullpen help. They’d probably like to move Carlos Santana, but top prospect Nick Pratto could step in at first base in the unlikely event they find a Santana suitor.
  • Tigers — Miguel Cabrera is still around for two more years at DH, and top prospect Spencer Torkelson is on the doorstep of taking over first base.
  • White Sox — The White Sox are already at a franchise-record projected payroll and have José Abreu and Andrew Vaughn to cover first base/DH.

Payroll projections courtesy of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource

What does the MLBTR readership think?

(poll link for app users)

 

Twins, Dereck Rodriguez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Twins are in agreement with Dereck Rodríguez on a minor league contract, according to an announcement from the right-hander’s representative, Gavin Kahn. It’s something of a full-circle moment for Rodríguez, who began his career in the Minnesota system as a sixth-round pick in the 2011 draft.

While Rodríguez spent his first six pro seasons in the Twins organization, he’s yet to pitch in the majors with Minnesota. During his initial run, he topped out at Double-A and elected minor league free agency after the 2017 campaign. He hooked on with the Giants on a minors pact that winter and earned his first big league call the following season after an excellent start in Triple-A. Rodríguez unexpectedly became a key member of the San Francisco rotation, tossing 118 1/3 innings of 2.81 ERA ball as a rookie.

That strong run prevention came without huge strikeout or ground-ball totals, though, and Rodríguez didn’t replicate that success over the following seasons. He posted a 5.64 ERA over 99 frames in 2019, then was limited to just two relief appearances in 2020 before San Francisco designated him for assignment. Claimed off waivers by the Tigers, he spent the rest of the season on optional assignment to Detroit’s alternate training site before being outrighted off the 40-man roster at the end of the year.

Rodríguez signed a minor league pact with the Rockies last offseason. He spent the year with their top affiliate in Albuquerque, pitching to a 6.72 ERA across 85 2/3 innings in an extremely hitter-friendly environment. Now 29 years old, Rodríguez will try to turn the tide and rediscover some of his rookie year success in Minnesota. The Twins starting staff is fairly open beyond Dylan Bundy and Bailey Ober. They’ll surely add to that mix after the lockout, but Rodríguez might have an opportunity to land a back-end role with a strong showing in Spring Training and/or start to the regular season at Triple-A St. Paul.

Quick Hits: Elian Soto, Yankees, Hinske, Royals

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While the next international signing period opens on January 15, teams are already lining up the next wave of int’l prospects for years in advance.  Washington City Paper’s Byron Kerr writes that the Nationals have agreed to a deal with outfielder/third baseman Elian Soto, the younger brother of superstar Juan Soto, as the 15-year-old has decided to join the D.C. organization when the 2023 signing period opens roughly a year from now.  Reports from Z101’s Hector Gomez earlier this week suggested that the younger Soto was preparing to head to the Mets, and Soto seemingly confirmed matters by posting an Instagram video of himself wearing Mets-branded attire.  New York was reportedly set to give Soto a $50K bonus, and while Brittany Ghiroli and Maria Torres of The Athletic report that the Nationals topped that offer, it wasn’t with a huge dollar figure, as the younger Soto has intriguing potential but isn’t considered a true top-tier prospect.

Though it is common practice for teams and international prospects to agree to deals well in advance of their eligibility date, deals aren’t completely official until a prospect’s signing period opens, so the younger Soto wasn’t breaking any rules by backing out of his Mets agreement.  It also remains to be seen if the 2023 international signing period even exists in its current form, as it has long been speculated that MLB might overhaul the signing process and perhaps institute an international draft as part of the next collective bargaining agreement.  This would wipe out the handshake deals teams have made with scores of younger prospects like Soto, and subject these players to a draft with a harder slot value (and less financial flexibility) than the one used in the North American amateur draft.

More from around baseball…

  • Eric Hinske is one of the names the Yankees are considering for their hitting coach vacancy, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  The 2002 AL Rookie Of The Year and a veteran of 12 big league seasons, Hinske would certainly fit the Yankees’ preference for an experienced former player to join their staff.  Hinske also has an accomplished coaching resume, working as a first base coach, assistant hitting coach, and hitting coach over parts of seven seasons with the Cubs, Angels, and Diamondbacks.  No stranger to the Bronx, Hinske played for the Yankees’ 2009 World Series team, and briefly worked as a scout for the Yankees before embarking on his coaching career.
  • The Royals announced several promotions within their baseball operations department, with a pair of former big leaguers amongst those moving up the ladder.  Paul Gibson is now the senior director of pitching, after the former southpaw worked in various scouting, special assistant, and pitching performance supervisory roles with the Royals since 2011.  Former Kansas City outfielder and first base coach Mitch Maier is now the director of player development/field coordinator, following two seasons as the team’s director of baseball ops.

Guardians Announce Several Organizational Promotions

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The Guardians announced 20 new promotions and hirings within the organization, including some prominent new titles for members of the baseball operations department.  Assistant general manager Matt Forman was given the additional title of executive VP, essentially placing him under only president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff on the team’s decision-making pyramid.  Eric Binder and James Harris were promoted to assistant GM roles, as the duo joins Sky Andrecheck as Cleveland’s AGMs.

Today’s announcement helps fill in some gaps left behind by some notable departures from the Guardians’ front office earlier this winter.  Former assistant GM Carter Hawkins left the Guardians to become the Cubs’ new general manager back in October, while former special assistant Don Poplin left for a similar position within the Royals front office and former director of amateur scouting John Mirabelli departed for a special assistant role with Nationals GM Mike Rizzo.

With these longtime employees moving onto other teams, the Guardians responded by promoting some other familiar names.  Forman is entering his 10th season with the organization after starting as a baseball ops intern, and he has worked as an assistant GM for the last five years.

Binder (nine seasons in Cleveland) previously worked as the VP of baseball ops.  As per the team’s press release, “Binder will expand his responsibilities across baseball operations, while continuing to lead the organization’s pitching efforts and supporting the Major League field staff with strategic planning and activities.”

Harris (five seasons in Cleveland) worked as the Guardians’ VP and director of player development, and will now “assist in all facets of baseball operations” and “provide macro-level leadership of the player development system along with the Major League and minor league performance areas.”  In something of a unique point for a baseball executive, Harris’ previous job before joining the Guardians was working as a football chief of staff under Chip Kelly when Kelly coached the NFL’s Philadelphia Eagles and at the University of Oregon.

Given how often Cleveland’s front office is targeted by other teams, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of these names surface in future searches for general managers or other high-ranking roles around the league.  Harris has already been a finalist for one high-profile job, as he and Hawkins were both among the finalists for the Cubs’ GM job.

Orioles Changing Left-Field Dimensions At Camden Yards

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Construction has begun on the left field area at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Sun reports, as the Orioles are looking to make their ballpark’s dimensions slightly more favorable towards pitchers.  The stretch of the left field wall from the foul pole to the bullpen area in left-center field will be moved back roughly 30 feet, and also elevated to around 12 feet high from its current height of seven feet.

The renovations are expected to be completed by Opening Day.  This is the first notable change to OPACY’s dimensions in 20 seasons, though even those changes (increasing the distance between home plate and the outfield wall) were rolled back a year later.

As Ruiz notes, Camden Yards has allowed the most home runs (5911) of any ballpark in the majors since OPACY first opened in 1992.  While obviously many new stadiums have since opened and don’t have the 30 years of compiled history, any number of metrics or just plain naked-eye measurements leave no doubt that Camden Yards is one of baseball’s more hitter-friendly venues.

The oft-struggling state of the Orioles’ pitching staff has naturally played a role in those numbers, though it can certainly be argued that Baltimore pitchers might have had better numbers if right-handed batters had more of a challenge in reaching the seats on fly balls to left field.  “While Camden Yards will remain a hitters’ park, the hope is for the changes to prevent it from being an outlier in terms of home runs,” Ruiz writes.

Orioles pitchers have allowed the most homers in baseball in each of the last three 162-game seasons.  That includes a 2019 campaign that saw Baltimore pitchers set a new MLB record with 305 home runs allowed in a single season.  The use of the livelier ball led to a huge surge in home runs league-wide in 2019, yet while the five highest single-season homers-allowed totals in history occurred during that season, the Orioles’ 305 total still comfortably led the pack (the Rockies were second, surrendering 270 home runs).

Bonus Pools For 2021-22 International Signing Market

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The 2021-22 international signing period opens on January 15, as for the second straight season, the usual July 2 opening date for the int’l was pushed back due to the pandemic.  This new signing period will run from January 15 to December 15, and it remains to be seen exactly what will happen with international signing procedures going forward.  If the rules stay the same, presumably the 2023-24 period would begin on July 2, 2023, though it is possible the int’l market could be significantly altered (or perhaps replaced altogether by an international talent draft) in the next collective bargaining agreement.

For now, however, teams are still operating under the old bonus pool rules.  All 30 teams receive an allotted hard cap on their international signings that cannot be exceeded, though any player signed for $10K or less aren’t counted against the cap.  While teams have been allowed to trade draft pool space in past years, trades were prohibited both for this int’l signing period and for the 2020-21 period.

As per Baseball America’s Ben Badler, here are the bonus pool amounts assigned to every team…

  • Angels: $5,179,700
  • Astros: $5,179,700
  • Athletics: $5,179,700
  • Blue Jays: $4,644,000
  • Braves: $5,179,700
  • Brewers: $5,721,200
  • Cardinals: $6,262,600
  • Cubs: $5,179,700
  • Diamondbacks: $6,262,600
  • Dodgers: $4,644,000
  • Giants: $5,179,700
  • Guardians: $6,262,600
  • Mariners: $5,179,700
  • Marlins: $5,721,200
  • Mets: $5,179,700
  • Nationals: $5,179,700
  • Orioles: $6,262,600
  • Padres: $6,262,600
  • Phillies: $5,179,700
  • Pirates: $6,262,600
  • Rangers: $5,179,700
  • Rays: $5,721,200
  • Reds: $5,721,200
  • Red Sox: $5,179,700
  • Rockies: $6,262,600
  • Royals: $6,262,600
  • Tigers: $5,721,200
  • Twins: $5,721,200
  • White Sox: $5,179,700
  • Yankees: $5,179,700

The four pool sizes were determined by a number of factors.  The largest possible bonus pool ($6,262,600) was assigned to the eight teams slotted into Competitive Balance Round B in last summer’s amateur draft, while the next-largest pool ($5,721,200) went to the six teams who were in Competitive Balance Round A.

Fourteen other teams have $5,179,700 to work with in their pools, while only the Blue Jays and Dodgers have the lowest allotment ($4,644,000).  Toronto and Los Angeles each lost $500K of their international pools as part of the penalty for a signing a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer at the onset of the 2020-21 free agent offseason — the Jays signed George Springer, and the Dodgers signed Trevor Bauer.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/11/22

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The latest minor league moves from around the sport…

  • The Reds announced that infielder Juniel Querecuto has been signed to a minor league deal, and invited to the team’s big league Spring Training camp.  A veteran of 10 pro seasons, Querecuto reached the majors for a four-game cup of coffee with the Rays in 2016.  After six seasons in Tampa’s organization, Querecuto moved onto the Giants’ Triple-A team in 2017 before joining the Diamondbacks for four years.  Beginning his career as a utility infielder, Querecuto has branched out to more of a super-utility type, getting action as a first baseman and at all three outfield positions since 2019, though the majority of his time has still been spent as a shortstop, second baseman, and third baseman.  Known more for his defensive versatility than his bat throughout his career, the 29-year-old Querecuto did hit .301/.354/.489 with 13 homers over 396 PA with Triple-A Reno last season.

Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Strongest Seasons?

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As teams plan out their post-lockout needs, most are probably looking to the bullpen as an area that could use further help. With the number of relievers clubs deploy throughout a season, essentially all of them could be well-served to stockpile depth in the middle innings.

The most straightforward path to doing that is via free agency, and there are still a number of options from which to choose. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 58 available arms who tossed at least 20 innings of relief last season. Some, like longtime Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen, are notable enough to command a significant multi-year guarantee. Many others figure to settle for one-year deals with a low base salary or perhaps minor league contracts with a Spring Training invite.

Who should be priority targets coming out of the transactions freeze? As we did with rotation options last week, we’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2021 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2021 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 4.17)

  1. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 1.83
  2. Collin McHugh (RHP), 1.90
  3. Jimmy Nelson (RHP), 1.98*
  4. Jesse Chavez (RHP), 2.03
  5. Kenley Jansen (RHP), 2.22
  6. Juan Minaya (RHP), 2.48
  7. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 2.61
  8. Ryan Tepera (RHP), 2.79
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 2.82
  10. Joe Kelly (RHP), 2.86

Strikeout Rate (league average — 24%)

  1. Jimmy Nelson, 38%
  2. Heath Hembree (RHP), 34.2%
  3. Jake Diekman (LHP), 31.7%
  4. Brad Boxberger (RHP), 31.2%
  5. Kenley Jansen, 30.9%
  6. Ryan Tepera, 30.8%
  7. Collin McHugh, 30.1%
  8. Jesse Chavez, 29.5%
  9. Ross Detwiler, 28.2%
  10. Jeurys Familia (RHP), 27.5%

Strikeout/Walk Rate Differential (league average — 14.2 percentage points)

  1. Jimmy Nelson, 27.8 points
  2. Collin McHugh, 24.8 points
  3. Heath Hembree, 24.3 points
  4. Ryan Tepera, 22.9 points
  5. Jesse Chavez, 21.9 points
  6. Brad Boxberger, 21.8 points
  7. Ian Kennedy (RHP), 19.7 points
  8. Joe Kelly, 19.2 points
  9. Ross Detwiler, 19.1 points
  10. Jake Diekman, 18.7 points

Ground-ball Rate (league average — 43.1%)

  1. Joe Kelly, 58.9%
  2. Brandon Kintzler (RHP), 58.5%
  3. Archie Bradley (RHP), 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 53.7%
  5. Juan Minaya, 53%
  6. Alex Claudio (LHP), 52%
  7. Jeurys Familia, 51%
  8. Steve Cishek (RHP), 49.7%
  9. Edgar Santana (RHP), 49.6%
  10. Robert Gsellman (RHP), 49.4%

FIP (league average — 4.17)

  1. Jesse Chavez, 1.75
  2. Jimmy Nelson, 1.82
  3. Collin McHugh, 2.29
  4. Ryan Tepera, 2.73
  5. Andrew Chafin, 2.98
  6. Joe Kelly, 3.08
  7. Kenley Jansen, 3.08
  8. Ross Detwiler, 3.28
  9. Conner Greene (RHP), 3.46
  10. Chris Martin (RHP), 3.47

Innings Pitched

  1. Yusmeiro Petit (RHP), 78
  2. Hansel Robles (RHP), 69
  3. Kenley Jansen, 69
  4. Andrew Chafin, 68 2/3
  5. Steve Cishek, 68 1/3
  6. Alex Colomé, 65
  7. Brad Hand, 64 2/3
  8. Brad Boxberger, 64 2/3
  9. Richard Rodríguez (RHP), 64 1/3
  10. Adam Ottavino (RHP), 62

* Nelson underwent season-ending elbow surgery last August; his health status for 2022 remains unclear.

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