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Giants Interested In Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger

By | at November 21, 2022 3:14pm CDT

The Giants have been frequently speculated as a fit for Aaron Judge, but their offseason won’t entirely revolve around him. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, the club will be looking for two outfielders this winter and have checked in on both Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger.

What sets Nimmo and Bellinger apart from most of the other free agent outfielders is the ability to play a competent center field. As noted by Slusser, the Giants’ outfield defense graded out poorly in 2022. The club used a hodgepodge of different options throughout the year, including Steven Duggar, Mauricio Dubon, Austin Slater, Mike Yastrzemski, Luis González, Jason Krizan, Stuart Fairchild, Joc Pederson, Bryce Johnson and Lewis Brinson. Defensive Runs Saved pegged them at -44, easily the worst in baseball with the Pirates next on the list at -33. Outs Above Average gave them a -25, tied with the Phillies for last. Only Ultimate Zone Rating was gentler, as their -21.8 in that category was 29th, edging out the White Sox. That’s a pretty unanimous assessment that says this is an area the club can upgrade, and having a reliable guy to pencil in there every day would certainly be appealing.

There are a handful of players who can provide help with the defensive side of things, such as Brinson, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brett Phillips, Bradley Zimmer, but they would likely be liabilities at the plate. Nimmo and Bellinger, however, have the potential to provide on both sides of the ball, though Bellinger’s offensive performance has been in quite an extended rut. Ever since injuring his shoulder during an ill-advised celebration in the 2020 postseason, he’s seemed lost at the plate. He mashed his way to MVP honors in 2019 by hitting 47 home runs and batting .305/.406/.629. His production slipped a bit in 2020 before he hit just .193/.256/.355 over 2021 and 2022 combined.

Whether he can get his offense back on track will be a key question, but he should have a decent floor thanks to his speed and defense. He was considered league average by DRS and UZR in 2022 while OAA was more enthused, giving him a mark of six for the year. He also swiped 14 bags this season, allowing him to be worth 1.7 fWAR despite the tepid work with the bat. Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, recently said that the outfielder will be looking for a one-year deal and it’s perhaps worth noting that this situation is at least mildly reminiscent of Carlos Rodón one year ago. Both players are represented by Boras and were entering free agency as talented players but with question marks about their consistency. The Giants and Rodón agreed to a two-year deal but with the southpaw afforded an opt-out to return to the open market after one season. Bellinger is apparently just looking for a straight one-year pact but perhaps the Giants will be the ones to step up and make that happen.

Nimmo’s case is less mysterious, at least in terms of his offense. He’s been fairly consistent at the plate, having an OBP of at least .367 in six straight seasons while keeping his wRC+ at 134 or higher over the past three. He had some durability concerns earlier in his career but has only had one significant injury absence over the past three years, which was due to a finger contusion in 2021. The defensive reviews are mixed, with both DRS and UZR giving him a negative number in 2020 and 2022 but a positive mark in 2021. OAA went negative in 2020 but has been positive the past two seasons. Wobbles from year to year with defensive metrics aren’t unheard of and it seems fair to expect Nimmo to provide at least average-ish glovework up the middle.

The problem with that stronger profile in recent seasons is that he will certainly cost much more than Bellinger. MLBTR projected him for $110MM over five years, or $22MM per season. Their payroll is currently around $133MM in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s well shy of last year’s $155MM Opening Day figure and their franchise record of $200MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but that doesn’t mean they will do everything they set their sights on. Given that the Giants have also expressed an interest in Judge, the top free agent shortstops and retaining Rodón, adding multiple nine-figure contracts is a bit tough to see. Then again, if the Giants end up missing on a few of their other targets, they should have plenty of payroll space to work with.

Whether they prioritize Nimmo or Bellinger, they will have competition. The Blue Jays are known to be interested in both Nimmo and Bellinger, while the Mets would like to bring Nimmo back to Queens.

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San Francisco Giants

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

By | at November 21, 2022 2:00pm CDT

The Giants have been conservative with their spending during the Farhan Zaidi era, which has led to inconsistent results. Their 107-win campaign in 2021 was excellent but they followed that up with an exact .500 season in 2022. All signs point to this being the offseason that the wallet opens, with many possible routes to take, one of which leads to Bay Area native Aaron Judge.

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2023 commitments: $89.15MM
Total future commitments: $111.15MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

It’s a time of transition in San Francisco, with the veterans of the last era making way for the fresh faces of the new one. On the heels of an unexpected renaissance in 2021, Buster Posey decided to retire on a high note. In 2022, they couldn’t keep the magic going, with injuries putting a damper on Brandon Crawford, Tommy La Stella, Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt. Those latter two names are now free agents and might not be back, while the former two are each entering the final years of their respective contracts.

How they proceed with this era will be fascinating to watch, with many possible paths ahead of them. Since Farhan Zaidi was named president of baseball operations four years ago, the club has generally avoided long contracts, attempting to build around their veteran core with modest signings, waiver claims and prospects. (It’s worth noting they did reportedly offer Bryce Harper $310MM over 12 years, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, but a deal didn’t come together.) As mentioned, the results have been mixed. They hovered around .500 in three of the four seasons since his hiring, with the 107 wins in 2021 as the huge exception.

The upside of that conservatism is the that club’s payroll is wide open. In the short term, Roster Resource estimates their 2023 payroll to currently be around $132MM. That’s well shy of 2022’s Opening Day figure of $155MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, as well as their franchise high of $201MM from 2018. The long-term picture is even better, with modest amounts still owed to Anthony DeSclafani and Wilmer Flores in 2024 and nothing besides the Flores option for 2025 and beyond. That leaves essentially all avenues open to them this winter. “From a financial standpoint, there’s nobody that would be out of our capability,” Zaidi recently told reporters, including Pavlovic.

Since no one is off the table, many people have set their sights on the very top of the free agent market, which is Aaron Judge. Towering above everyone else in more ways than one, Judge has been speculated as a fit for the Giants due to his Bay Area roots. He was born in Sacramento and raised in Linden, which is about a two-hour drive from Oracle Park. The Yankees will likely be highly motivated to prevent the Giants from poaching him, given Judge’s tremendous abilities and star power. However, there’s really nothing to make the fit in San Francisco impossible at the moment. Though Judge will command a mammoth contract, with MLBTR predicting $332MM over eight years, the Giants are one of the teams that can afford it.

In terms of the on-field fit, the Giants could make it work with Judge or just about any free agent. In recent years, they have targeted players with defensive versatility, which should help them juggle the puzzle pieces around, regardless of who they eventually acquire. The current outfield mix consists of players like LaMonte Wade Jr. Mike Yastrzemski, Luis González and Austin Slater. There’s also Joc Pederson, who received and accepted the qualifying offer in the past week. However, he had poor defensive numbers in 2022 and could be slated for significant time as the designated hitter. Though those outfielders all have their merits, none of them would stand in the way of Judge. Wade has spent some time at first base in recent years and could theoretically do that more going forward to de-clutter the outfield, if necessary.

The infield is currently a hodgepodge of multi-positional players, outside of Crawford. There’s Flores, La Stella,  Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis and David Villar, along with some depth options. Those players all have at least some ability at more than one position, giving the club plenty of flexibility in how they make their moves going forward. They have been rumored to be considering the top free agent shortstops, in addition to their interest in Judge. The fit might be awkward for one season, with Crawford being a fan favorite and face of the franchise. He has 10-and-5 rights and isn’t likely to end up traded. It’s possible the club could sign a shortstop to play second or third for one season, then have them slide over after Crawford’s contract expires. This would be somewhat akin to the Dodgers acquiring Trea Turner while they still had Corey Seager at short. Turner played second after the trade deadline in 2021 and then moved over to short for 2022 after Seager signed with the Rangers. Turner is now one of the “Big Four” free agent shortstops alongside Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. They will all likely be able to secure nine-figure contracts but, as mentioned, the Giants are well positioned to make such a move.

Behind the plate is another area where the club could consider making an investment. Joey Bart has long been considered one of the club’s most exciting prospects, but he’s yet to permanently cement himself at the big league level. He was blocked by Posey for a while but finally got some significant playing time in 2022. In 97 games, he hit .215/.296/.364 for a wRC+ of 90. That’s roughly league average offensive production for a catcher, though it came with a concerning 38.5% strikeout rate. On the other side of the ball, Bart got negative grades from both Defensive Runs Saved and the FanGraphs framing metric. He’s about to turn 26 and could still take steps forward but the club will likely want to have other options on hand. The only other backstop currently on the 40-man roster is Austin Wynns, who had a fine showing in a backup role in 2022. However, the Giants could find other options, with free agents like Omar Narváez, Tucker Barnhart, Austin Hedges and Roberto Perez available in free agency. A bigger splash on someone like Willson Contreras is something they could afford if they aren’t really committed to giving Bart a chance, though they some more focused on other areas of the roster.

While Belt and Longoria have spent significant time with the Giants and are notable departures for nostalgia reasons, the club’s most significant free agent loss is Carlos Rodón. The lefty has long been known as a very talented pitcher, but one who struggled to stay healthy. He had a strong 2021 that erased many of those injury concerns, though not all. He pitched 132 2/3 innings for the White Sox with a 2.37 ERA but seemed to run out of gas down the stretch. The Sox were concerned enough not to give him a qualifying offer. The Giants pounced and gave Rodón a two-year, $44MM deal, though one that allowed him to opt out after the first year and return to free agency as long as he pitched 110 innings. He shot way past that, finishing the season at 178 frames and a 2.88 ERA, further distancing himself from those previous injury concerns. He made the easy decision to opt out and will now be looking for a huge payday, even after rejecting a qualifying offer from the Giants.

Zaidi has said that the club will try to retain Rodón, but they will certainly have competition. The Rangers are already known to be interested, for instance. Even without Rodón, the rotation isn’t in terrible shape. On paper right now, it would be Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Jakob Junis. Webb and Cobb have each been good in each of the past two seasons. Wood’s 2021 ERA of 3.83 jumped to 5.10 in 2022, but with fairly similar rate stats and advanced metrics. DeSclafani is less certain at this point because his strong 2021 was followed by a frustrating 2022. He made just five starts before ankle surgery ended his season. Junis had some success in a swing role last year before getting bumped into the rotation, though his results declined after that. There’s some decent ingredients in there, though the group would certainly benefit from retaining Rodón and bumping Junis back into the bullpen. If they miss on Rodón, there are plenty of other starting pitchers available, with Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom at the top of the market, followed by guys like Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and many more.

In the bullpen, Camilo Doval seems to have stepped up and grabbed hold of the closer’s role. He tossed 67 2/3 innings in 2022, striking out 28% of batters faced and finishing with a 2.53 ERA. Those results came in high-leverage situations, with Doval racking up 27 saves. He’s yet to reach arbitration and can be retained cheaply for years to come. There are some more seasoned options behind him, like John Brebbia and Tyler Rogers. Like all clubs, the Giants are a candidate to grab a reliever or two. There are dozens of options, including Adam Ottavino, Carlos Estevez and Andrew Chafin, but perhaps the most fun reliever to consider is Taylor Rogers signing to join his twin brother Tyler.

In the end, there’s no shortage to what the Giants can do this winter. They have as much payroll flexibility as any contender and plenty of ways to use it. That could be a huge splash like Aaron Judge, one of the big shortstops, an ace for the rotation — or spreading the money around more evenly on a bunch of mid-market options. They could plausibly be connected to most of the free agents this offseason and will surely make significant moves of some kind. Just about everything is on the menu and fans are expecting a feast of giant proportions.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Giants-centric chat on 11-21-22. Click here to read the transcript.

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2022-23 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals San Francisco Giants

Tigers’ Relievers Drawing Trade Interest

By | at November 21, 2022 1:46pm CDT

The Tigers have lots of uncertainty with their lineup and rotation but they still have some interesting hurlers in their bullpen. That’s leading to a great deal of interest on the trade market, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noting that the bull market for relievers so far this offseason has only added to the interest.

Back in July, MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote about the many intriguing relievers that could make for interesting trade chips for Detroit. After the trade deadline came and went, they traded only one of them: impending free agent Michael Fulmer. Since then, they lost Wily Peralta and Andrew Chafin to free agency, the latter declining a player opt-out. But they still have plenty of talent back there, with Rosenthal listing Joe Jiménez, Gregory Soto and Alex Lange as some of the candidates, though there’s also Jason Foley, José Cisnero and Will Vest.

Trading from this group will likely be a balancing act for Scott Harris, the club’s new president of baseball operations. Subtracting talented arms from the roster will undoubtedly hurt the club’s chances at competing in the short term. However, the odds may be stacked against them anyway. The rotation will be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal for at least part of the year, as they are both coming off of surgeries that will keep them joining the club to start the season. Spencer Turnbull should be healthy but he missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery and will be an unknown going into next year. The lineup will be looking for bouncebacks from Javier Báez, Jonathan Schoop, Austin Meadows and Akil Baddoo, while hoping that struggling youngsters like Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Ryan Kreidler take steps forward. There’s a lot that needs to break right for short-term success and the club may think about sacrificing some of the present for the sake of the future.

If the club views their circumstances through this lens, each reliever will be a unique case when it comes to the calculus of considering a trade. Jiménez, for instance, has between five and six years of MLB service time. That means he’s slated for free agency one year from now. 2022 was his finest season to date, as he threw 56 2/3 innings with a 3.49 ERA, 33.3% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 33.1% ground ball rate. He might have actually been better than the ERA indicates, with his .328 BABIP well above league average. His 2.00 FIP, 2.90 xERA and 2.30 SIERA all suggest he was unlucky to have his ERA settle where it did. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a salary of just $2.6MM in his final pass through arbitration before reaching the open market. Cisnero is also just one year away from free agency, though he’s in the opposite position statistically. He posted a 1.08 ERA in 2022 but with a sky high 18.1% walk rate. A .242 BABIP kept him from really feeling the consequences of all those free passes. He’s projected for a $2.2MM salary next year.

Contracts for free agent relievers have been pricey so far, with Edwin Diaz getting $102MM for five years, Robert Suarez $46MM over five and Rafael Montero getting $34.5MM over three, making Jiménez and his modest salary quite appealing. From Detroit’s point of view, it might help them in the long run to turn their single year of control over Jiménez into prospects that can help them six or seven years down the line.

Where the calculus gets a little trickier is relievers who aren’t as close to the open market as Jiménez. Gregory Soto has just over three years of service time, meaning he’s not slated for free agency until after 2025. That means he’s much more likely to be able to help the Tigers to compete in the future but also means he could net a greater trade return. He posted a 3.28 ERA this year with a 22.8% strikeout rate and 48.1% ground ball rate, but a 12.9% walk rate. The control issue has long been present for him, as he’s never posted a walk rate below 12%. For reference, this year’s league average for relievers was 9.1%. Trading him would be somewhat akin to the Orioles moving on from Jorge López at this year’s deadline. Lopez had 2.5 years of control remaining at the time and netted the O’s four prospects, but also cost them a proven reliever who could have stayed with them down the stretch and for 2023 and 2024.

If the Tigers are willing to consider trading a pitcher with even more control, they have some options in Lange, Foley and Vest. All three of them have between one and two years of MLB service time, meaning they have five years of club control remaining. Lange had a 3.69 ERA in 63 1/3 innings this year, along with a 30.3% strikeout rate and 55.6% ground ball rate, though a high 11.4% walk rate. Foley tossed 60 1/3 frames with a 3.88 ERA, 16.8% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate and 57.1% ground ball rate. Vest got 63 innings of action with a 4.00 ERA, 23.2% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 49.7% ground ball rate. These guys have yet to reach arbitration and have years of cheap control, which makes them valuable to other teams but also potentially valuable to the Tigers as well.

As for the Orioles, Rosenthal mentions them as another team stacked with relievers that could garner trade interest. However, most of them are in the latter category of still having years of cheap control remaining and are thus less likely to be moved. Félix Bautista, for instance, is not on the table in trade talks.

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Baltimore Orioles Detroit Tigers

Mitch Haniger Drawing Interest From Several Teams

By | at November 21, 2022 11:31am CDT

Nov. 21: Both the Dodgers and Angels have also expressed interest in Haniger, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.  For the Dodgers, who non-tendered Cody Bellinger and played utilityman Chris Taylor as their most frequent left fielder in 2022, Haniger could split time between left field and designated hitter (likely pushing Taylor to the infield, where Trea Turner could potentially depart).

Over in Anaheim, Haniger would likely supplant former top prospect Jo Adell, who’s yet to establish himself as a big league regular in parts of three seasons (161 games, 557 plate appearances).

Nov. 20: Though a high ankle sprain and a two-week stint on the COVID-related injured list limited Mitch Haniger to only 58 games last season, the outfielder is drawing a lot of attention on the free agent market.  According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Giants and Rangers are two of the clubs looking at the former All-Star.

Haniger hit .246/.308/.429 with 11 homers over 247 plate appearances in 2022, which translated to a solid 113 wRC+.  He hit for a lot (47.2%) of hard contact, and considering how teams increasingly used the shift to limit Haniger’s numbers over the last two seasons, the changing shift rules for 2023 might lead to Haniger better translating those hard-hit balls into base hits.

Due to a ruptured testicle and a torn adductor muscle, Haniger played in just 63 games in 2019 and he missed the 2020 season entirely.  Returning for a full season in 2021, Haniger hit .253/.318/.485 with 39 homers in 691 PA — pretty close to the production the outfielder delivered in his first two seasons with the Mariners in 2017-18.

Between this health history, his lack of a real platform season, and his age (32 in December), Haniger faces an interesting trip in free agency.  Despite all the drawbacks, MLBTR still projected him for a three-year, $39MM deal based on how well Haniger has performed when healthy.  It is possible Haniger might pursue a deal with an opt-out clause after the first season, or perhaps just a straight one-year deal entirely so he can re-enter the market next winter on the heels of what he hopes will be a healthier and more productive 2023 season.  Or, it wouldn’t at all be surprising if Haniger wanted to lock in a multi-year commitment now, given how injuries have already sidetracked his career on multiple occasions.

Beyond just his ability at the plate, Haniger has also generally displayed above-average glovework in right field.  That would make him a particularly good fit with a defensively-conscious team like the Giants, and his right-handed bat would balance out a lefty-heavy outfield mix of Joc Pederson, LaMonte Wade Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, and Luis Gonzalez.  If San Francisco did sign Haniger, the Giants might then dangle one of their other outfielders in trade talks, or perhaps just use Wade more frequently at first base.

The Rangers, of course, are very familiar with Haniger after seeing him as an opponent for so many years in the AL West.  Texas also has a need in the outfield, with Adolis Garcia the only real lock for everyday playing time and Leody Taveras perhaps also favored for regular work in center field.  Haniger could slide into the right field mix and put Garcia in left field, and Haniger could also get some DH at-bats when Brad Miller takes a seat against left-handed pitching.

The Giants and Rangers are expected to be two of the offseason’s most aggressive teams, with San Francisco looking to bounce back after a disappointing 81-81 season and Texas trying to get back to winning baseball after six straight years under the .500 mark.  Both clubs have money to spend, and it’s probably worth noting that Haniger might be a backup plan to Aaron Judge in San Francisco, given how the Giants have been so frequently tied to the Bay Area native on the rumor mill.  If Judge’s asking price gets too high for the Giants’ liking, they could perhaps pursue an alternate route of signing Haniger for right field and then splurging on another top free agent (like one of the major shortstops, or an ace pitcher).  The Rangers are expected to be focusing much of their winter efforts on rotation upgrades, but bolstering the lineup is also on the to-do list.

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

By | at November 21, 2022 11:16am CDT

In conjunction with the Phillies installment of our annual Offseason Outlook series, I’ll be hosting a Phillies-centric chat here at MLBTR later today, at 1pm CT. Click here to ask a question in advance, to join live, or to read the transcript after it’s complete.

The Phillies nearly pulled a rabbit out of their hat, going from disappointing start and early-June managerial change to storybook finish and a surprise World Series run that ultimately came up just short. With an 11-year playoff drought now ended and a 2022 World Series berth in their back pockets, they’ll take aim at improving the club and finishing the job in 2023.

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2023 commitment: $130.375MM
Total long-term commitment: $497.625MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Exercised $16MM club option on RHP Aaron Nola
  • Declined $17MM club option on 2B Jean Segura (paid $1MM buyout)
  • RHP Zach Eflin declined $15MM mutual option (received $150K buyout)

Free Agents

Buoyed by a dominant postseason showing from Bryce Harper and — until the World Series — otherworldly starting pitching from co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the Phillies came within arm’s reach of their first World Series title since 2009. It wasn’t meant to be, as they ran into a Houston buzzsaw that generally matched their starting pitching prowess and came through with more timely hits late in the series. Now, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and general manager Sam Fuld will be on the lookout for reinforcements to get the Phillies back to the Fall Classic in 2023.

The first order of business was largely a formality. When the Phils fired Joe Girardi in early June and elevated veteran bench coach Rob Thomson to the manager’s chair, many were happy for Thomson to finally get a chance at running a team. Few could’ve predicted the epic tear the Phillies would go on following the managerial shift, however. Reaching the postseason — let alone the World Series — seemed like a pipe dream. But that’s exactly how things played out, and Dombrowski, Fuld and owner John Middleton rewarded Thomson to the tune of a two-year contract extension as manager — sans “interim” label — with an option for a third season. Not long after, the Phils extended hitting coach Kevin Long and invited back the entire staff for the 2023 season.

With the field leadership in place, the Phillies will turn their focus to filling out a roster that — as one would expect for a World Series club — isn’t exactly rife with holes. That’s not to say they’ll stand pat — far from it, in all likelihood — but the Phils have a strong foundation in the lineup, rotation and bullpen moving forward.

Starting with the one-through-nine, the Phillies surely feel set in the outfield corners, at designated hitter and at least one middle infield spot. The trio of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos will hold down the outfield corners and designated hitter, though the manner in which that’ll play out next season is largely dependent on Harper. He’ll undergo elbow surgery this week to address the damaged ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow, but the extent of the procedure won’t be known until surgeons begin the operation. Imaging hasn’t confirmed whether Harper will need a full ligament replacement (i.e. Tommy John surgery) or “merely” an internal brace procedure. Tommy John surgery would come with a lengthier recovery, but he’ll be back by midseason either way (perhaps earlier, in the event of an internal brace or primary repair operation). Regardless, don’t look for the Phillies to add any corner outfielders or DH-only players of note.

The same is true behind the plate, where J.T. Realmuto turned in a vintage season and can still lay claim to being one of the top catchers — if not the top catcher — in Major League Baseball. The current AAV record holder for catchers ($23.1MM) slashed .276/.342/.478 with 22 homers, 21 steals and premium defense at the sport’s most physically demanding position, taking home his third Silver Slugger and second Gold Glove in the process. He’s a star in every sense of the word and is a lock for primary catching duty again in 2023. Backup Garrett Stubbs was outstanding in 121 plate appearances (.264/.350/.462), so there’s no reason to expect Philadelphia to be in the mix for a backup, either.

In the infield, things get a bit murkier. That might be underselling matters, in fact; the infield mix is arguably quite wide open. Granted, Rhys Hoskins is coming off a .246/.332/.462 slash, 30 homers and a postseason with six home runs — several of which were delivered in clutch spots — but he’s also a year from free agency and generally regarded as a poor defender. With a projected $12.6MM salary for the 2023 season, Hoskins isn’t necessarily a “bargain” anymore, and it’s at least feasible that the Phillies would be open to some kind of swap to improve upon his suspect defense. That’s not to say Hoskins will be aggressively shopped, but the notion of him changing hands at some point isn’t entirely far-fetched. Twenty-seven-year-old Darick Hall is probably ticketed for more DH work early in the year while Harper mends than time at first base, but he’s one alternative if the Phils do get an offer to their liking on Hoskins.

Across the diamond, the Phils received only average offense from 26-year-old Alec Bohm, who also happened to turn in some of the worst defensive grades you’ll see at third base (-17 Defensive Runs Saved, -9 Outs Above Average). Trading Bohm, who’s controllable through 2026, would be selling low, but the Phils could conceivably be open to such a move after two straight years of lackluster offense and quite poor defensive ratings. One alternative would be to slide Bohm across the diamond to first base, hoping the bat will come around and that the glove will play at a less-demanding position, though doing so might necessitate moving on from Hoskins. There’d be DH playing time to go around early in the season, but once Harper is healthy, a roster with him, Schwarber, Castellanos, Hoskins and Bohm is tough to field without making substantial defensive concessions, as the Phils did in 2022.

The corner infield situation is further muddied by the fact that there’s no quality everyday option at third base on the free-agent market. Justin Turner still has more than enough bat, but his defensive grades have tanked and the Dodgers played him at DH more than third base in 2022. Evan Longoria is an option, but age 37, he’s not the star he once was. Jace Peterson quietly brings an OBP-driven, defensive-minded value to the hot corner, but his track record is limited despite his age (33). Brandon Drury had a breakout year between the Reds and Padres, but it’s an open question whether he can sustain it. The trade market will have a few options, but the best-case scenario for the Phils would simply be for Bohm to find a way to improve upon his glovework.

In the middle infield, the Phils are set to bid farewell to Segura after declining his option. Doing so would afford them the flexibility to play young Bryson Stott at either middle-infield slot, perhaps setting the stage for a run at one of the market’s four premier shortstops: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson. Such an expenditure might sound far-fetched on the surface, with Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto, Castellanos and Schwarber all already commanding salaries of $20MM annually. However, Nola is a free agent following the 2023 season and Wheeler returns to market following the 2024 campaign. That creates both some near-term flexibility and also increases the urgency to win now, when that dynamic one-two punch remains on the roster.

If the Phils don’t plan to pursue one of the “big four” shortstops, there are alternatives at either middle-infield slot. A reunion with Segura at a lesser annual rate certainly seems plausible. Over at shortstop, Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias are free agents, while Cleveland’s Amed Rosario is coming off a solid season and seems like a probable trade candidate. The Phils also have deadline pickup Edmundo Sosa if they prefer a defensive-minded approach to shortstop in 2023. The 26-year-old is a plus defender who hit well in St. Louis in 2021, struggled with the Cardinals in 2022, and found himself revitalized with the Phillies following the trade deadline. He’s a likelier bench option, but as far as fallbacks go, the team could do worse than a sure-handed infielder coming off a .254/.320/.381 slash dating back to 2021.

Center field has been the other glaring hole for the Phillies in recent years, but the organization swung a proactive move intended to shore up that spot for years to come back at the trade deadline. Sending top catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels, the Phillies acquired former top prospect Brandon Marsh, whom they can control through the 2027 season. Marsh, a 2016 second-round pick who was once viewed as a building block in Anaheim, has struggled with his consistency but shown flashes of immense potential.

The Phillies tweaked Marsh’s stance and swing mechanics (Twitter links via Talkin’ Halos), and the early results were night-and-day. After hitting .226/.284/.353 with the Angels in 2022, Marsh hit .288/.319/.455 as a Phillie and cut his strikeout rate from 36.2% to 29.7%. He hasn’t yet drawn premium defensive marks in center field, but Marsh was heralded as a potential plus defender as a prospect and certainly has the tools to be an everyday center fielder in Philadelphia. He’ll likely get that chance in 2023, due both to his solid finish in 2022 and to the steep price the Phils paid to acquire him.

As far as the pitching staff goes, the foundation is set. Nola is in his walk year, so the possibility of a contract extension to keep him in Philadelphia beyond the 2023 season could very well be broached in Spring Training. Whether he stays or goes, Nola will again join Wheeler in forming one of the game’s great rotation duos. Following them will be lefty Ranger Suarez, who’d cemented himself as a quality big league starter even before elevating his profile with a clutch postseason showing. Dombrowski has already said that the Phillies will likely entrust one rotation spot to a young arm such as Bailey Falter or perhaps even top prospect Andrew Painter.

With Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson and Noah Syndergaard all departing to the free-agent market, that leaves one spot to fill and more than a dozen names to potentially take that role. There’s a larger supply of veteran mid-rotation starters than usual in free agency this offseason, and while a couple names — Tyler Anderson and Martin Perez — are already off the board, Dombrowski will still have quite a list from which to choose. His ties to Justin Verlander from the pair’s Detroit days will no doubt prompt speculation about such a fit, and to the likely surprise of many, the Phillies could probably even offer the Max Scherzer-esque deal Verlander is said to be seeking and still come in just shy of the luxury tax.

Of course, any subsequent moves would put the Phils right back into tax territory, and to this point they haven’t been suggested as a likely player for Verlander. Certainly, the idea of them signing Verlander and a notable shortstop seems far-fetched. However, the point here isn’t so much to illustrate why Verlander singularly is a good fit, but rather to again highlight that even with so many weighty contracts already on the books, the Phillies have the financial capacity to play for pretty much any free agent they like. Alternate names on the rotation market include Jameson Taillon, Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi (another former Dombrowski signee) and Andrew Heaney, to name a few. If the goal is to look for one-year solutions rather than multi-year names like those just listed, Corey Kluber becomes an intriguing option.

The bullpen, long seen as the Phillies’ Achilles heel — rhyme unintentional but now firmly staying in place — looks steadier than in years past. Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado were both terrific in 51 innings and could form a strong eighth inning/ninth inning tandem. Minor league signee Andrew Bellatti proved to be a steal, thanks largely to ramped up usage of his slider. Connor Brogdon, 27, improved considerably over his already-strong rookie season in 2021.

There are still holes to fill, of course, and it’s been a bull market for relievers early on. The Phillies will have the ability to jump into the mix for any of the remaining free-agent relievers, be it an established closer like Kenley Jansen or an upside play like Matt Strahm or Carlos Estevez. A reunion with David Robertson seems plausible as well. It seems likely they’ll add at least one reliever, be it via free agency or the trade market. Plugging in a pair of new relief arms, as the Phillies did last year with Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia, shouldn’t be ruled out.

Whether in the middle infield or in the rotation, there’s probably room for the Phillies to make one notable free-agent addition and a handful of supplementary moves and still avoid barreling too deeply into luxury-tax territory. Then again, given that they’re likely enjoying a revenue boon from their World Series run and could be facing the last year with Nola atop the rotation, perhaps the luxury tax will be of little consequence to owner John Middleton. For a team in this position, that’s very arguably the best way to operate, as the foundation of a team that pushed the Astros to six games in the World Series remains firmly in place — but perhaps only for one more season.

Dombrowski has never been one to shy away from major free-agent signings, and having just missed out on his third World Series title with a third different team, there’s good reason for another aggressive winter. The core of this year’s team will be back in 2023 — quite likely with some pricey new teammates.

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2022-23 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Philadelphia Phillies

Bellinger Likely To Sign One-Year Deal; Blue Jays Have Expressed Interest

By | at November 21, 2022 9:59am CDT

In the months leading up to last week’s non-tender deadline, Cody Bellinger‘s status with the Dodgers stood out as perhaps the most fascinating decision among the group, serving as the basis for plenty of spirited debate about whether the former NL MVP would be traded, non-tendered or brought back for one more chance to right the ship in Los Angeles. The Dodgers ultimately made the decision to cut Bellinger loose, making him one of the most intriguing boom-or-bust options on this year’s market — particularly given the scarcity of center fielders.

Agent Scott Boras tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that he’s already received multi-year offers for Bellinger — presumably from teams hoping for the chance to secure a player with star potential at what would be a bargain annual value if they’re successfully able to rehabilitate him. However, pointing to Bellinger’s age (27), Boras suggested that he and Bellinger “most likely… don’t want a multi-year [contract].” MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Blue Jays are among the teams to have expressed early interest in Bellinger, adding that they held some trade discussions surrounding Bellinger prior to his non-tender.

There’s good sense to pursuing only contracts that would allow Bellinger to return to the market a year from now. He won’t turn 28 years old until around the 2023 All-Star break, making him the youngest free agent of note this offseason. And although Bellinger has managed just a .193/.256/.355 slash with a 27.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate since Opening Day 2021 — due in no small part to a series of shoulder injuries that culminated in surgery — he’s also a former NL Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player. From 2017-20, he appeared in 506 games and tallied 2083 plate appearances while batting .273/.364/.547 with 123 home runs, a 21.5% strikeout rate and a 12.4% walk rate.

Even amid his recent offensive freefall, Bellinger has remained at least an average center fielder by virtue of any defensive metric, with Statcast offering particularly bullish reviews of his glovework. Statcast pegs Bellinger at eight Outs Above Average over the past two seasons and placed him in the 63rd percentile or better in arm strength, outfielder jump and sprint speed in both 2021 and 2022. Bellinger swiped 14 bags in 17 tries this past season and is 62-for-76 (81.5%) in his big league career.

Boras represents a pair of former All-Star rebound hopefuls under the age of 30 — Bellinger and Michael Conforto — but he’s publicly declared different contractual targets for the pair of outfielders. With regard to Conforto, Boras has spoken about the goal and purported likelihood that he’ll sign a two-year deal with the opportunity to opt out of the contract after one season — similar in concept (although perhaps not in magnitude) to the one fellow client Carlos Rodon inked with the Giants last winter.

That the ostensible preference or goal for Bellinger is to ink a straight one-year deal doesn’t necessarily indicate that no team is willing to put forth a multi-year deal and an opt-out, but it’s nevertheless a notable discrepancy for a pair of rebound candidates with All-Star ceilings. A straight one-year deal would quite likely be more appealing for teams, as any two-year pact with an opt-out carries considerably more downside for the signing club. (The second year on such contracts is typically only in play if the player gets hurt or performs poorly.)

A straight one-year deal for Bellinger gives him the best path to max out his current earning power, relatively limited as it may be, though it also creates the possibility that even if things break right for him, he’ll be saddled with a qualifying offer a year from now. If Bellinger rebounds strongly enough, that’s not likely to be a major detriment to his market as a 28-year-old, but it’s surely something that’s in the back of his mind as he weighs interest. While it’s doubtful he’d necessarily prioritize signing with a club that feels like a playoff long shot, Bellinger might also be more open to doing so, knowing that if he plays well and emerges as a trade candidate, a midseason move could help him dodge that QO entirely. Of course, a lot needs to go right for him to even be in that position.

A potential fit with the Blue Jays is easy enough to see — particularly after the team traded Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners. Signing Bellinger would allow the Jays to slide George Springer from center field to right field while simultaneously adding a left-handed bat to help balance out an extremely right-handed lineup. The 2021-22 version of Bellinger is a major step down from Hernandez offensively, but the Jays would be a better defensive club with this alignment, and the obvious hope would be that a change of scenery would help bring Bellinger’s offense back up closer to its prior heights — even if a full rebound is probably too optimistic.

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The Opener: Hall of Fame, Twins, Angels

By | at November 21, 2022 8:49am CDT

As Friday’s non-tender deadline enters the rear-view mirror and the offseason rolls along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball:

1. Hall of Fame Ballot Announced

The official Hall of Fame ballot for 2023 is set to be released today, and for the first time in 10 years, it won’t have Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, or Curt Schilling on it. Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez will be eligible for the first time in 2023, while Jeff Kent enters his final year of eligibility. Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, and Billy Wagner each received over 50% of the vote last year, and could be names to watch this year in addition to the newcomers. While Alex Rodriguez will enter his second year of eligibility in 2023, he’ll need a massive showing on this year’s ballot to get on the radar for Cooperstown consideration after just a 34.3% showing in his inaugural year on the ballot. Although Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling won’t be on this year’s ballot, they could still join the Hall of Fame in 2023, as the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee will consider the three of them (as well as five others) during the Winter Meetings in December.

2. Will The Twins Re-Sign Correa?

The Twins made a few major changes to their infield mix before Friday’s non-tender deadline, as they shipped Gio Urshela out in a trade with the Angels while swinging a deal to bring in Kyle Farmer from the Reds. If no further changes to the infield mix are made, Minnesota would likely start the season with Jose Miranda at third base, Jorge Polanco at second, and Luis Arraez at first, with Farmer set to hold down shortstop until Royce Lewis returns from injury. With Lewis set to return sometime next season and 2022 draftee Brooks Lee already at Double-A, the Twins could conceivably be content to hand Farmer the keys to the position, transitioning him to more of a utility role once one of the youngsters is ready to displace him. There’s been mutual interest in a Correa reunion, but with big-market teams such as the Dodgers, Cubs, and Giants rumored to be looking to land a shortstop, it’s easy to see how the Twins could lose a bidding war. Still, it seems unlikely that the acquisition of a possible stopgap at shortstop would change Minnesota’s plans much with regards to Correa. Darren Wolfson of KSTP and 1500 SKOR North chatted with Twins president/CEO Dave St. Peter and center fielder Byron Buxton (video link) about the potential for a Correa reunion at last week’s event to unveil new Twins uniforms. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes wrote earlier in the month that the Twins would likely pursue Xander Bogaerts in the event that Correa signs elsewhere.

3. What’s Next For Angels After Urshela?

On the other end of the Urshela deal, the Angels have a more stable infield mix following his acquisition. Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh figure to get the lion’s share of starts at the corners, assuming their injury woes in 2022 don’t follow them into next season. That leaves Urshela, David Fletcher, and Luis Rengifo to mix and match between second base, shortstop, and filling in at the corners. A prominent shortstop addition still remains possible, but the Angels can also turn their attention to the outfield, where they currently project to send out Jo Adell in left, Mike Trout in center, and Taylor Ward in right. While such an outfield configuration would be far from a disaster, after a trade of Brandon Marsh to the Phillies, the Angels lack depth; currently, Mickey Moniak projects to be their fourth outfielder. Trout will lock up center when healthy, but adding a corner bat to provide protection against continued struggles from Adell would make sense. A lefty such as David Peralta would help the Angels balance their righty-heavy outfield mix, though speculatively speaking, Trey Mancini could be an interesting fit as a player who can play the outfield corners while also providing Walsh platoon protection at first base. Both the Urshela trade and the recent signing of Tyler Anderson have deepened the Angels’ roster while leaving the door open for further moves of note. Deepening the outfield mix in similar fashion would be a sensible next step.

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Mets Interested In Jameson Taillon

By | at November 20, 2022 9:20pm CDT

The Mets have already been linked to several available starters early in the offseason, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that Jameson Taillon is one of the names the club has been in touch with during its ongoing pitching search.  Taillon (who just turned 31 on November 18) is a free agent for the first time in his career, and he ranks 14th on MLBTR’s list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.

The right-hander is no stranger to the Big Apple, having spent the last two seasons with the Yankees.  Taillon missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he rebounded to post a 4.08 ERA over 321 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign.  Taillon has a below-average strikeout rate and he returned from that TJ recovery with below-average fastball velocity, but he has excellent spin rates and strong control.  Taillon’s 4.4% walk rate ranked in the 94th percentile of all pitchers in 2022.

Perhaps most importantly, Taillon has been healthy over the last two seasons, apart from a three-week IL stint with an ankle injury in September 2021.  Taillon has undergone two Tommy John surgeries and battled testicular cancer, so the Yankees certainly assumed some risk when they acquired Taillon in a deal with the Pirates during the 2020-21 offseason.  Fortunately, Taillon has avoided any further major heath problems, and now (if anything) looks like something of a reliable veteran innings-eater that could fit into any team’s rotation.

The Yankees opted against issuing a qualifying offer to Taillon, so he was able to hit the open market without any draft compensation attached to his services.  MLBTR projected Taillon for a four-year, $56MM contract, but with the caveat that the righty’s Tommy John history could make it difficult for him to land that fourth guaranteed year.

Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker are all free agents, leaving the Mets with some major holes to fill in the rotation.  Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco will certainly fill two of the five spots, and David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and recent trade acquisition Elieser Hernandez could end up all battling for one available spot, or possibly all be depth options depending on how many pitchers are added or re-signed.  As one might expect, the Mets have been aggressive in exploring the market, checking in on the top names (deGrom, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga), more second-tier starters like Taillon or Andrew Heaney, and back-of-the-rotation depth like Hernandez.

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