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The Opener: Cubs, Choo, DFA Resolutions

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As the start of Spring Training creeps closer, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Cubs Convention begins today:

The Cubs are holding their 38th annual fan convention at the Sheraton Grand in Chicago this weekend. The convention begins at 6pm CT this evening, though the majority of festivities take place on Saturday. Manager Craig Counsell, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, and chairman Tom Ricketts are expected to be in attendance, and it’s possible there will be some interesting quotes that come from their public appearances. The guest set to get the most attention from Cubs fans is surely Sammy Sosa. Sosa had not been welcomed back into the Cubs organization following the conclusion of his 13-year stint in Chicago back in 2004, and though tensions between the two sides lasted 20 years and multiple ownership groups, a thaw in relations finally occurred last month when Sosa issued a statement apologizing for “past mistakes” in a tacit acknowledgement of his participation in the steroid era.

A number of current and former players in addition to Sosa are expected to be in attendance this weekend as well, including newly-acquired outfielder Kyle Tucker. Tucker settled on a $16.5MM salary for 2025 in order to avoid arbitration yesterday after the Cubs acquired him in a blockbuster trade with the Astros last month. This weekend’s convention also takes place one day after the Cubs unveiled their new alternate home uniforms for the 2025 season, which will be featured during Friday day games at Wrigley throughout the summer. For more details on the Cubs Convention (including ticket pricing), you can visit the event website here.

2. Choo to be honored ahead of Rangers FanFest:

The Rangers are hosting their 2025 FanFest on Saturday at Globe Life Field. More details on the event can be found here, but one former player expected to be in attendance is 16-year MLB veteran Shin-Soo Choo, who spent the final seven years of his big league career in Texas. In advance of tomorrow’s FanFest, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News notes that Choo will be honored with the Mark Holtz Alumni Award at the team’s awards banquet this evening. A career .275/.377/.447 hitter, Choo was an All-Star with the Rangers at the age of 35 back in 2018 before wrapping his MLB career up in 2020. Since then, he’s headed back home to South Korea and played four more seasons with the SSG Landers. Choo retired at the end of the 2024 campaign at the age of 42 after 24 seasons in professional baseball.

3. Upcoming DFA resolutions:

Two players who were previously designated for assignment should see their situations resolved today: infielder Livan Soto and right-hander Amos Willingham. Soto was DFA’d by the Orioles last week after Roansy Contreras was claimed off waivers by the club, while Willingham was DFA’d by the Nationals to make room for Jorge Lopez on the 40-man roster. Both played figure to either be claimed off waivers by a rival club today or, should they clear waivers, be outrighted to the minor leagues to serve as non-roster depth for their respective club. Willingham has just 19 games of MLB experience under his belt with a 7.11 ERA, while Soto has batted .351/.407/.494 in 87 trips to the plate at the big league level across three MLB seasons. Willingham has a much stronger Triple-A track record than his brief big league run might indicate (3.47 ERA, 23.3 K%), while Soto is the opposite, having posted a .266/.362/.385 slash that’s much lighter than his production in limited MLB work.

The Marlins Should Be Bailing Out Cash-Strapped Teams (No… Really)

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The Marlins have added precisely four players to a 40-man roster that lost 100 games last season. Those four new acquisitions -- infielder Eric Wagaman, catcher Liam Hicks, infielder Max Acosta and first baseman Matt Mervis -- have boosted their currently NL-low payroll by ... well, zero, basically. Wagaman signed a split big league deal as a free agent. Hicks was a Rule 5 pick. Acosta came over in the Jake Burger trade. Mervis was swapped for Vidal Brujan after the latter was designated for assignment in Miami.

The only team currently projected for a lower payroll than the Marlins is the Athletics, and the A's have been active enough this winter that it still seems likely they'll make an addition or two and leapfrog over the Fish. (A's GM David Forst has already gone on record to say he's hopeful of another addition or two.)

Right now, the Marlins project for a $67MM payroll, per RosterResource. Their projected CBT number is $84MM. Both numbers are due largely to the $12MM owed to the since-released Avisail Garcia, whose four-year contract concludes in 2025.

Even by the Marlins' standards, the 2025 payroll is currently dipping to a new low when compared to recent seasons. Miami has trotted out payrolls of $84MM, $110MM and $106MM, respectively over the past three seasons. That's not much, of course, but those numbers are lightyears higher than the current projection. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has suggested that the Marlins, like the A's, may need to spend some additional funds to retain their revenue-sharing status. They haven't been as stingy as the A's in recent seasons, but the Fish certainly aren't a paragon of aggressive roster maneuvering. Miami's recent offseason activity (or lack thereof) doesn't bode well for subsequent additions. Their lone free agent signing last offseason was Tim Anderson on a one-year, $5MM deal.

Miami did spend a combined $25MM on Jean Segura and Johnny Cueto the prior season, though that was under a different front office regime. Second-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has made it abundantly clear -- through actions rather than words -- that he had zero faith in the roster he inherited returning to contention after a surprise postseason berth in 2023.

The Fish waited barely more than a month into the 2024 season before trading Luis Arraez to the Padres, and when the deadline rolled around they traded away a staggering nine more players who'd opened the season on the roster. In a span of just three months, Bendix traded nearly 40% of his Opening Day roster (including JT Chargois and Huascar Brazoban, who were only off the Opening Day roster due to injury and visa issues, respectively.) Had Jesus Luzardo not been injured, Miami would likely have traded 11 of 26 players from the Opening Day club.

Given those trends, there's little reason to think the Marlins will spend any meaningful money on the upcoming player payroll. And while the notion of "buying" prospects is suggested far, far more than it is actually put into practice -- so much so that I'm often reluctant to dedicate much time thinking about the concept at all. However, given not only the specific position in which the Marlins find themselves but the broader context of this individual offseason, it feels like the Marlins are missing an opportunity if they're not more seriously trying to drive this type of transaction.

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Latest On Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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After agreeing to a $28.5MM salary to avoid arbitration last week, the Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can turn their focus to a long-term deal. The four-time All-Star said last month that the Jays had offered him around $340MM, which he said was well below his asking price. That offer reportedly predated Juan Soto’s $765MM agreement with the Mets that shattered prior contractual precedents.

Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that the Jays have not had any extension talks with Guerrero’s camp since before Christmas. That indicates there was little to no discussion about a long-term deal in the talks to avoid exchanging arbitration filing figures. However, Rosenthal and Sammon write that extension talks are expected to pick back up before the beginning of Spring Training.

Guerrero said last month that he would cut off negotiations as soon as Spring Training begins. It’s common for players to publicly impose deadlines — many prefer not to discuss contracts once the regular season gets underway — but some players will ultimately continue talks beyond those “cutoffs” if they feel negotiations are making progress. If both team and player are amenable, extension discussions can take place at any point.

While Guerrero isn’t going to get Soto money, he’s clearly looking well beyond the $313.5MM extension that Rafael Devers received from the Red Sox over the 2022-23 offseason. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote last week that Guerrero’s asking price was believed to be at or above $450MM. Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggests similarly, reporting that the former MVP runner-up is looking to top $400MM and could aim for a deal closer to the half-billion dollar mark.

It remains to be seen whether the Jays have the appetite for that kind of investment. They made bigger offers to Shohei Ohtani and Soto, suggesting they’re amenable to a huge expenditure for certain players. Ohtani and Soto presented opportunities to add superstars from outside the organization. Extending Guerrero would be a major boost to a fanbase frustrated by a series of near-misses in free agency over the last two winters. It could also be necessary to keep the team from going into a rebuild after next season. Toronto already faces an uphill path to contention in the AL East. Competing in 2026 if Guerrero and Bo Bichette walk may not be feasible.

In any case, the focus seems squarely on an extension. Rosenthal and Sammon write that the team much prefers to keep Guerrero rather than trade him. They suggest that, in order to even consider a trade, the Jays would need to receive a haul that tops what the Yankees sent to the Padres for one year of Soto’s services last winter.

New York sent two seasons of Michael King — who had proven himself as a multi-inning relief weapon and flashed significant upside in a limited look as a starter — as the headliner. The Yankees included highly-regarded pitching prospect Drew Thorpe (whom San Diego flipped as the centerpiece of the Dylan Cease deal), controllable depth starters Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez, and backup catcher Kyle Higashioka to the Padres. The Yanks also got Trent Grisham in the deal.

That’s a massive haul for one year of any player, which reflects the Jays’ preference for holding onto Guerrero. Perhaps that’d change if extension talks don’t progress, though it’d be a major surprise if they dealt him before Opening Day. Toronto hopes to compete for a playoff spot this season. They could still add one of the top unsigned hitters (e.g. Anthony Santander, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso). Even if the Jays don’t succeed in extending Guerrero, they’d presumably prefer to see how things play out in the season’s first half before deciding whether to make him available.

Cubs Pursuing Bullpen, Bench Acquisitions

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Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently appeared with David Kaplan and Gordon Wittenmyer on the Cubs REKAP Podcast. Asked about the team’s goals over the remainder of the offseason, the baseball ops leader pointed to two specific areas.

“Mostly focused right now on bench and bullpen, just trying to supplement the roster as much as we can. I feel good about our team but there’s obviously ways to improve,” Hoyer said. He later added that the “bullpen’s been probably the area we’ve been focused on most in free agency. I feel like we’re trying to make sure we upgrade our bench. Adding a veteran presence to our bench would be good.”

The Cubs have made a pair of low-cost bullpen pickups this winter. Chicago acquired righty Eli Morgan from the Guardians and added left-hander Caleb Thielbar on a $2.75MM free agent contract. Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller and Nate Pearson have all earned spots in the relief corps. Julian Merryweather and Keegan Thompson are out of options, so they’ll need to be on the MLB roster or be offered to other teams via trade or waivers. That’s also true of Matt Festa and Rob Zastryzny, though they’ve been recent depth acquisitions who could have an uphill path to cracking the roster. Swingman Colin Rea could open the season in long relief.

Chicago probably wouldn’t benefit from another middle innings arm. The priority should be finding an established late-game veteran. Hoyer famously has shied away from significant investments in the bullpen since the Cubs’ three-year deal with Craig Kimbrel. Chicago hasn’t signed a reliever to a multi-year contract or an eight-figure guarantee since that June 2019 acquisition.

That’d make it a big surprise if the Cubs jump in on Tanner Scott, who could land three or four years at something between $15MM and $20MM annually. Chicago could also be reluctant to meet the ask on Carlos Estévez, but this offseason presents a few opportunities for clubs to add a veteran closer on a short-term contract.

Kirby Yates, David Robertson and Kenley Jansen are all coming off productive seasons. Yates, who turned in a 1.17 earned run average while striking out 36% of opponents over 61 1/3 innings for the Rangers, was arguably a top three reliever in the league. Each of those players will be limited to one- or two-year deals. Robertson, who pitched well for the Cubs early in 2022, will almost certainly be limited to one year as he enters his age-40 season.

On the position player side, there’s a clear need for a depth infielder. Vidal Bruján, Rule 5 pick Gage Workman, and Luis Vazquez are the top options to back up the expected starting infield of Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson and prospect Matt Shaw. A multi-positional player who can provide some cover at third base in case Shaw struggles makes sense. Yoán Moncada, Jon Berti, Enrique Hernández and Paul DeJong are potential options.

The Cubs already signed Carson Kelly to back up Miguel Amaya behind the dish. They have Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki lined up for outfield/designated hitter work. Alexander Canario is out of options, so he probably has a leg up on the fourth outfield role. Canario doesn’t play center field, though, so the Cubs could look for a glove-first veteran (potentially on a minor league deal) to back up Crow-Armstrong. Highly-regarded prospect Kevin Alcántara can play up the middle, but Hoyer indicated he preferred for the organization’s top young talents to play everyday in the majors or in Triple-A.

As far as a potential bigger addition goes, Hoyer was asked about the recent report from Bruce Levine of 670 The Score that the Cubs had “casual” dialogue with Alex Bregman regarding a short-term deal. Hoyer declined to comment on that report itself — team personnel are prohibited from publicly commenting on whether they’re pursuing specific free agents — but reiterated generally that the front office was “looking to supplement the roster” (implying they were less likely to make a huge splash). Bregman’s agent Scott Boras said this morning that the All-Star third baseman was still focused on landing a long-term contract anyhow.

Fans, especially those of the Cubs, are encouraged to watch the hour-long interview. Hoyer speaks about transactions from previous seasons and provides some insight into the process for finalizing free agent deals and trades. He also fields questions on whether MLB will ever see a $1 billion free agent, handling fan expectations as a baseball operations leader, weathering the ups and downs of a 162-game season, and Sammy Sosa’s anticipated return at this weekend’s Cubs Convention.

Pete Alonso Declined Three-Year Offer From Mets

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It appears the Pete Alonso era in Queens is coming to an end. Andy Martino of SNY reported this afternoon that the Mets expect Alonso to sign elsewhere and have begun to turn their attention to other pursuits.

After initially facing a gap on contract length, the sides recently turned their attention to a shorter-term arrangement. Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote this afternoon that Alonso and his representatives at the Boras Corporation pitched the Mets a three-year deal with a high annual salary and one or more opt-out chances. Sammon reports that the team countered with a three-year proposal at a lesser salary which Alonso declined.

Joel Sherman and Dan Martin of The New York Post provide some specifics, reporting that the team’s offer came with an overall guarantee in the $68-70MM range and included opt-outs. Sammon writes that the Mets were open to pushing that guarantee slightly higher, though it seems there was still a significant enough gap compared to Alonso’s asking price (which is not known) for the team to turn its attention elsewhere.

The Mets’ proposal was clearly not to Alonso’s liking, which isn’t all that surprising. It’s less than the frontloaded $80MM guarantee which Cody Bellinger landed when he returned to the Cubs on an opt-out laden deal last winter. It now seems as if Alonso will be moving on, though the Mets haven’t pushed all their chips in to an alternative target yet. New York agreed to bring back Jesse Winker on a $7.5MM deal. He’ll slot in at designated hitter and/or as a left-handed bench bat. If Alonso indeed walks, New York will probably move Mark Vientos to first base and allow Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña battle for reps at third base.

The Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Mets are now “heavily focused” on adding to the bullpen. Sammon tied them to top free agent reliever Tanner Scott last week. Adding a high-leverage arm in front of star closer Edwin Díaz makes sense. A left-hander would be an obvious fit considering Danny Young is the only southpaw in the bullpen at the moment. Scott is far more than a situational matchup option, but he has certainly shown himself capable of attacking the best left-handed hitters in the sport.

The Athletic reported this morning that the Blue Jays were among the teams still engaged with Alonso’s camp. It’s not clear whether those discussions also involve a short-term deal. Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM first reported last week that Alonso’s camp was offering the three-year term with opt-outs to the Mets alone in an effort to stay in Queens. He may still be seeking a longer-term contract from other teams, though it’s not clear whether that kind of proposal will be on the table anywhere.

Brewers To Sign Jorge Alfaro To Minor League Deal

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The Brewers and catcher Jorge Alfaro are in agreement on a minor league deal with an invite to major league spring training, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The backstop is represented by CAA Sports.

Alfaro, 32 in June, was once a top 1oo prospect. His power was considered his best trait and he has occasionally showed flashes of tapping into it during his big league career but he has largely undercut that with his lack of plate discipline or contact skills.

To this point, he has appeared in 496 major league games and stepped to the plate 1,710 times. Only 4.2% of those ended with Alfaro taking a walk while 34% of them resulted in a strikeout. Both of those numbers are well worse than typical league averages. He did launch 48 home runs in there but his .253/.302/.393 batting line leads to a wRC+ of 86.

That’s actually not awful production for a catcher, as backstops are usually about 10% below league par. In 2024, all MLB catchers combined to hit .234/.300/.378 for a 91 wRC+. But Alfaro was largely considered a bat-first prospect and that’s been borne out in the big leagues. Baseball Prospectus has graded him as a decent framer, close to average with the running game and subpar in terms of blocking. Statcast has liked his work with the running game but hasn’t been fond of his framing nor blocking. FanGraphs has been pretty down on his work apart from a nice bump in 2018. That middling glovework would perhaps be acceptable with big offensive numbers but Alfaro hasn’t been able to provide that.

The Brewers have a strong reputation for improving a catcher’s defense, so perhaps they can give Alfaro a bit of a bump there. Alfaro might have a bit of rust, since he essentially missed the 2024 season. He signed a minor league deal with the Cubs but was released just before Opening Day and didn’t sign anywhere else. For what it’s worth, he has been playing winter ball this offseason and performing well. In 12 games for Tigres del Licey of the Dominican Professional Baseball League, he hit .303/.361/.455. He had seven strikeouts in 36 plate appearances, a rate of 19.4%.

There are currently three catchers on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster. William Contreras, whose defensive metrics improved after coming over from Atlanta, is the clear number one. Eric Haase currently projects as the backup. His career numbers are fairly similar to Alfaro, in that he’s hit some home runs but has poor walk rates, strikeout rates and defensive grades. Jeferson Quero is one of the top prospects in the league but may not be a short-term option. He started 2024 at the Triple-A level but required shoulder surgery after just one game and missed the rest of the year.

Since Quero is just 22 years old, has just one game of Triple-A experience and missed essentially a full season, the Brewers will probably not want to push him too hard to start 2025. As such, Alfaro might slot in as #3 on the club’s depth chart right now behind Contreras and Haase, though further moves could obviously change that. He’ll give the club some experienced non-roster depth who could step onto the roster if an injury creates a need. If that comes to pass, he is out of options, which is also true of Haase.

Padres To Sign Martín Maldonado To Minor League Deal

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The Padres and catcher Martín Maldonado have agreed to a minor league deal with an invite to big league camp, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic. The backstop is a client of MVP Sports Group.

Maldonado, 38, has carved out a lengthy career as a glove-first catcher. Teams have generally been willing to tolerate his subpar offense in exchange for his strong glovework and reputation as a guy who can work well with pitchers and provide leadership in the clubhouse.

However, the 2024 season saw him push that to new extremes. He secured a $4.25MM deal with the White Sox but hit just .119/.174/.230 in 48 games. Even by his own low standards for offense, that was a dismal showing. He was released by July and didn’t sign with another club over the final few months of the season.

Despite his age and that awful season, it was reported in December that he wanted to keep his career going in 2025. He has recently been playing winter ball, perhaps due to the long layoff he just had, but without improved results. He slashed .114/.184/.314 in 10 games for Leones del Escogido of the Dominican Winter League and then .135/.195/.216 in 12 games for Indios de Mayaguez of Puerto Rico’s Liga de Béisbol Profesional Roberto Clemente.

Though the numbers have been rough lately, there’s little harm for the Padres to take a flier on a minor league deal. Maldonado’s career batting line of .203/.278/.344 only amounts to a wRC+ of 70, indicating he’s been 30% below league average, but is far better than his recent results.

Even with that tepid offense, he’s been able to be a useful player thanks to his contributions on the other side of the ball. He has 59 Defensive Runs Saved in his career, with that tally being one of the ten best in baseball from 2012 to the present. Outlets like Statcast and Baseball Prospectus have also given him strong marks for his work while donning the tools of ignorance.

The Padres have a fairly wide open catching situation and little money to address it. Reporting throughout the winter has suggested they need to lower their commitments in 2025, which has led to guys like Dylan Cease, Luis Arráez and Robert Suarez appearing in trade rumors.

Last year, Luis Campusano opened the year as the club’s primary catcher but he gradually ceded time to Kyle Higashioka as the year wore on. Campusano had long been a top prospect and hit .319/.356/.491 in 49 games in 2023, his age-24 season. The Padres were surely hoping that he could keep some of that going in 2024 but he went on to hit .227/.281/.361 for a wRC+ of 83. Thanks to some poor grades for his defense, he was considered to be below replacement level.

He only got three starts in the final month of the season as the Friars leaned on Higashioka and Elias Díaz. That duo carried onto the postseason, with Campusano not cracking the roster, though both became free agents at season’s end. Higashioka went on to sign with the Rangers.

The only two backstops on San Diego’s 40-man roster at present are Campusano and Brett Sullivan. The former is a former top prospect with some flashes of brilliance, though he’s coming off an awful season, as mentioned. The latter is about to turn 31 years old and has a .206/.243/.299 batting line in just 40 games at the major league level.

In short, it’s a sensible matchup for several reasons. Maldonado lands in a spot with perhaps his best chance of getting back to the big leagues. The Padres get a skilled veteran without having to give up a roster spot. It hasn’t been reported what salary Maldonado would make if he cracks the roster but it surely won’t be a huge number.

Cubs, Kyle Tucker Avoid Arbitration

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The Cubs and Kyle Tucker have avoided arbitration, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The outfielder will make $16.5MM next year and won’t need to go to a hearing. Tucker is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Last week was the arbitration filing deadline, meaning that any teams and players who did not come to agreements had to exchange filing figures. The Cubs and Tucker did not agree, with the club filing at $15MM and Tucker at $17.5MM. The $2.5MM gap between their numbers was the largest of the 17 filings. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Tucker for a $15.8MM salary this year. If a hearing came to pass, the arbiter would have had to select either Tucker’s number or the club’s, with no ability to pick a midpoint.

That made the likelihood of a hearing very high. Teams and players are allowed to continue negotiating and free to reach deals after the filing deadline, though most teams take a “file-and-trial” approach these days. That means they have a policy against doing one-year deals after the deadline, thus giving them leverage in salary talks. When a file-and-trial team does a deal after the deadline, it usually involves an extra year, perhaps as an option. That prevents it from being used as a precedent in future arbitration calculations, so the overall trend of file-and-trial policies is to slow the inflation of salaries.

The Cubs have been a file-and-trial team, as most are these days, but have made an exception here. None of the reporting on Tucker’s deal suggests that there’s any kind of option. He is an impending free agent and excellent player, so he wasn’t going to give away a free agent year on a club option. The two sides could have agreed to some kind of mutual option that would never be picked up, but don’t appear to have done so.

It’s unclear why the Cubs broke from their usual policy here, paying Tucker beyond the midpoint of the filing numbers and his MLBTR projection. Speculatively speaking, it could be because he was just acquired from the Astros and the Cubs didn’t want to tarnish the beginning of their relationship with their new star player. An arbitration hearing can sometimes lead to friction between player and team, with Corbin Burnes with the Brewers and Ryan Helsley with the Cardinals some recent examples. Burnes spoke of his negative arbitration experience in February of 2023, while Helsley recounted his to Foul Territory in March of last year.

Tucker has previously gone to an arbitration hearing. He first qualified for arbitration going into 2023, with he and the Astros unable to reach an agreement for his salary that year. He filed at $7.5MM and the Astros at $5MM, with the club ultimately emerging victorious. The two sides avoided arbitration for 2024 by agreeing to a $12MM salary.

It’s also perhaps possible that the Cubs would like to keep Tucker for the long term and didn’t want to sour the relationship with a bad first impression. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently appeared on the Cubs Rekap Podcast with David Kaplan and Gordon Wittenmyer (hat tip to Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation) and discussed Tucker’s situation, downplaying his concern about the relationship with Tucker. He also said that there are no conversations about an extension. Though the Cubs would love to have Tucker long term, Hoyer suggested they would probably approach him about contract talks later, suggesting that playing in front of the home crowd at Wrigley would help their chances.

While it may be true that Tucker will enjoy the experience of being a Cub this year, there are still reasons to expect an extension isn’t likely. He’s been one of the best players in baseball recently. In the eyes of FanGraphs, he essentially averaged five wins above replacement per year from 2020 to 2023. He produced 1.8 fWAR in the shortened 2020 season, then finished the next three seasons with either 4.9 or 5.0 fWAR. In 2024, he took things to a new level with 4.2 fWAR in just 78 games, missing significant time due to a shin fracture.

He has hit .279/.358/.525 over those five seasons for a wRC+ of 143. He has stolen 88 bases and received strong grades for his outfield defense. His 20.9 fWAR over those years puts him in the top 15 among all position players in the league. He likely would have been in the top ten if not for fouling a ball off his shin and fracturing it last year.

Given that production and the fact that Tucker is set to be a free agent going into his age-29 season, he is well positioned for a significant payday. To lock up an MVP-caliber player a year before free agency isn’t cheap, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Mookie Betts got $365MM from the Dodgers while Francisco Lindor got $341MM from the Mets. The largest deal in Cubs’ history is their $184MM pact with Jason Heyward, so they would likely have to double that to keep Tucker from becoming a free agent next winter.

Mariners Outright Austin Kitchen

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The Mariners announced Thursday that left-hander Austin Kitchen, whom they’d designated for assignment in order to open roster space for newly signed Donovan Solano, went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Tacoma.

Kitchen, 27, was a September waiver claim out of the Marlins organization. He didn’t pitch in a big league game with the Mariners following that claim but did log his first seven MLB frames with Miami last year. That brief cameo didn’t go well, as Kitchen was tagged for 11 earned runs in that time.

Kitchen posted a more encouraging 3.78 earned run average in 52 1/3 frames of Triple-A work between three organizations (Rockies, Marlins, Mariners). The southpaw averages just 90.7 mph on his fastball and doesn’t miss many bats, but he posted a hearty 55.1% grounder rate in the minors last year and has a lengthy history of keeping the ball on the ground at plus rates. He’s also shown generally good command, walking only 6.5% of his opponents in four minor league seasons.

Now that Kitchen has cleared waivers, he’ll remain in the organization as minor league depth. He still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, so if the Mariners select him back to the big league roster, he can be optioned freely without needing to return to waivers. Seattle has a trio of left-handed relief options already on the 40-man roster: Tayler Saucedo, Gabe Speier and recent waiver claim Tyler Jay.

Mets Reportedly Expect Pete Alonso To Sign Elsewhere

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The Mets and Pete Alonso have been in a staredown for a while but it seems the club is blinking. Andy Martino of SNY reports that they now expect him to sign elsewhere, with today’s agreement with Jesse Winker part of a plan to spread money around to various alternatives. Earlier today, Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Alonso’s market was heating up, with the Blue Jays and Mets involved, as well as a third unidentified team.

Alonso and the Mets have clearly had mutual interest in reaching a new deal for a long time, but without the ability to agree on a price point. The club reportedly offered him a seven-year, $158MM extension in the summer of 2023, but a deal didn’t get done. Since then, there have been changes on both sides of the negotiations. The Mets hired David Stearns to replace Billy Eppler atop their baseball operations department in September of 2023, with Alonso then hiring Scott Boras the following month.

During the 2024 season, the sides generally expressed admiration for each other but never seemed to make much effort to get an extension done. Alonso turned down a qualifying offer and became a free agent. Though he was connected to various teams in recent months, he never seemed to get a deal to his liking. Alonso’s camp reportedly pivoted to a short-term deal, pitching the Mets a three-year pact with opt-outs. The Mets seemed to be somewhat amenable to this framework but a gap on the money still prevented a deal from coming together.

In recent weeks, the Mets have also been connected to players like Winker, Anthony Santander, Alex Verdugo, Tanner Scott, Luis Arráez and Tim Hill. They also reportedly offered Teoscar Hernández a two-year deal before he returned to the Dodgers on a three-year pact.

Martino’s report compares the Mets’ current plans to those of the Yankees after missing out on Juan Soto, spreading money around to various players as opposed to one big splash. After Soto went to the Mets, the Yankees gave out deals to Max Fried and Paul Goldschmidt, as well as trading for Devin Williams and Cody Bellinger. They could have done some of those moves in conjunction with Soto but perhaps were more aggressive in those areas since they hadn’t tied up their resources with the one mega deal.

The Winker signing alone doesn’t stop the Mets from bringing back Alonso, as the two coexisted on the roster in 2024, with Alonso the regular at first as Winker spent time in the outfield corners and designated hitter slot. But there has been some reporting that the club wants to use some internal options at the corners. Mark Vientos was the regular third baseman last year and had a breakout year at the plate, but with subpar defensive metrics. He could perhaps move over to first, while the Mets use Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña to cover third base.

Perhaps things will change in the coming days but it now seems possible that the Mets are indeed prepared to walk away from Alonso. The earlier reporting from The Athletic indicated the Mets were in talks with various players and didn’t want the stalled Alonso negotiations to get in their way. While Winker doesn’t strictly block the path for Alonso to come back to Queens, it does seem to signal that the Mets are prepared to move on.

If it does indeed come to pass, it will be a surprisingly lackluster end to the Mets-Alonso relationship. He was a homegrown star with some New York roots and come up through the club’s system after being selected in the second round of the 2016 draft. He debuted with a big splash in 2019, hitting 53 home runs and also winning the home run derby. That campaign is now widely viewed as the juiced ball season, but Alonso continued to be a big homer threat in subsequent years.

Alonso now has 226 home runs over the past six seasons, second only to Aaron Judge in that time. He won another derby title in 2021 and was a staple of the club over their recent history, not having played less than 152 games in any full season.

During that time, the Mets went from a punchline to a powerhouse. While they were previously known for having middling budgets and results, Steve Cohen purchased the club ahead of the 2021 season and made them one of the top spenders in the league. They have made the playoffs in two of the past three years, with Alonso playing the hero last year. He hit four home runs in 13 playoff games just a few months ago, including the series-flipping homer off Williams to get the Mets past the Brewers and out of the Wild Card round.

But his star power in the media and general public seemed to outpace his popularity in today’s analytically-inclined front offices. While the home run power has been real, Alonso’s other contributions have been muted. His walk rates have been decent but not outstanding, he’s not a burner on the basepaths and his defense hasn’t been well regarded. His overall offense has also declined. While he hit .261/.349/.535 for a 137 wRC+ through 2022, he slashed just .229/.324/.480 for a 121 wRC+. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 2.1 wins above replacement last year, a solid but not elite number. There were 119 position players who were at 2.2 fWAR or higher last year.

It therefore seemed possible from the start of the offseason that Alonso would find his offers lacking in free agency. As part of MLBTR’s annual Top 50 list, we considered predicting Alonso for a deal along the lines of the three years and $80MM that Bellinger got from the Cubs last year after he lingered in free agency into February. We backed down from that prediction, putting 5/$125MM on Alonso, but it now appears he may well end up getting something like that deal. It just might be somewhere other than Queens.

It’s a bit of a surprising pivot, as the Mets have not been shy about spending since Cohen bought the team. While Stearns was in Milwaukee, he never spent a lot of money on first basemen, but he never had the resources he now has. Despite the deeper bank account, it still seems as though Stearns would prefer to invest in ways he considers wise. The club also didn’t play at the top of the starting pitching market, not signing guys like Fried or Corbin Burnes, instead taking risks on guys like Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes. Montas is coming off a down year while Holmes will be trying to pivot from the bullpen to the rotation.

All this will seemingly leave Alonso looking elsewhere for his next gig, with Toronto one possibility. The Jays already have a first baseman in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but it doesn’t appear as though the plan would be to trade him. Per the reporting from The Athletic, the plan would be for Guerrero and Alonso to share first base and DH, with Guerrero occasionally crossing the diamond to play third base. Though the article from The Athletic says the Jays would “prefer” to hang onto Guerrero, Rosenthal made an appearance on Foul Territory and more emphatically shot down the possibility of Guerrero being traded.

Though the fit would be a bit awkward, the Jays could use the power. Toronto’s offense was close to league average last year, but a lot of that was thanks to having a walk rate that was bested by only six other teams. In the home run department, they were actually one the worst clubs, ahead of just the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox.

They don’t really have a strict designated hitter, which perhaps provides a path for Alonso and Guerrero to share a lineup. Justin Turner was their primary DH for the first half of last year but he was traded to the Mariners at the deadline. It would make it a bit harder for the club to rest someone like George Springer, but it seems the Jays have some openness to it regardless. Guerrero taking the hot corner could allow greater flexibility, though he only has 104 innings there over the past five seasons. Most of that came late last year as the Jays were playing out the string on a lost season. It’s unclear how much willingness they have to put Guerrero there in meaningful games.

Financially, it seems the club still has powder dry. They reportedly had a strong offer on the table for Burnes as of a few weeks ago, before he signed with the Diamondbacks. Since then, they signed Jeff Hoffman to a three-year, $33MM deal, but that is surely well shy of what they were willing to pay Burnes.

It’s theoretically possible that signing Alonso could give the Jays some cover for the event they can’t sign Guerrero, an impending free agent, to an extension. But it seems highly likely that Alonso will be securing a deal with the ability to opt out after 2025, meaning he would only stick around for 2026 if he has a down year. They would likely prefer to have Guerrero locked up long term, since he’s significantly younger than Alonso, while seeing Pete walk away earlier.

There are surely other clubs in the mix as well. Alonso has been connected to the Giants, Red Sox and Angels in recent weeks. Teams like the Tigers, Athletics and Mariners make sense as speculative fits. Since Alonso rejected a QO, the Mets will receive a draft pick after the fourth round if he signs elsewhere. The penalty for the signing club will depend on their revenue-sharing status and whether they paid the competitive balance tax last year. Perhaps we will have clarity soon as the staring contest with the Mets appears to be ending.

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