Mets Eyeing Multiple Cubs Players, Trevor Story
The Mets and Cubs have discussed various permutations of deals including right-hander Zach Davies and one of Kris Bryant or Javier Baez, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (all Twitter links). SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets are looking for pitching depth and a bat, with Bryant, Baez and Rockies shortstop Trevor Story among their targets. The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders tweets that the Mets are “very” interested in Story, though Saunders has also suggested that if the Rockies trade Story, it’ll likely happen close to the actual deadline.
Reports connecting the Mets to Bryant, in particular, date back to the offseason. He’d give the Mets the right-handed bat they covet and a defensive upgrade over the reportedly available J.D. Davis at third base, in addition to providing a corner outfield option depending on injuries or pitching matchups. Baez, meanwhile, could step in for the currently injured Francisco Lindor until he’s able to return next month, then slide over to second base. That same scenario could apply to Story.
Of the three bats in question, Bryant is having far and away the best all-around season. The former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP is slashing .267/.358/.503 with 18 home runs. Bryant endured a miserable slump in June, collecting just nine hits in 88 plate appearances and going all month without a multi-hit game, but he’s bounced back in July with a hearty .290/.405/.516 showing. He’s earning $19.5MM in 2021 and comes with the highest price tag of this high-profile trio.
Baez, earning $11.65MM in his final year of club control, has shown the most power of the bunch but also the most concerning levels of plate discipline. He’s ripped 22 homers, but as his .248/.292/.484 slash shows, his on-base abilities (or lack thereof) are somewhat troublesome. Baez has walked at just a 4.2 percent clip this year, and while he’s always been a free swinger, his current 36.3 strikeout rate is the worst among all qualified hitters. That said, he and Lindor would form a dynamic defensive middle infield tandem.
The 28-year-old Story, like Baez and Bryant, is a free agent at season’s end. He’s having arguably the worst season of his career in 2021, hitting .240/.312/.429 (84 wRC+) with 13 home runs. Eight of those long balls have come since June 20. On the one hand, that’s encouraging. On the other, he’s batted .211 with a .270 OBP in that time. Story’s track record speaks for itself — he batted .292/.355/.554 with 83 home runs from 2018-20 — but he hasn’t really found much consistency in 2021. He’s earning $18.5MM this season.
As for Davies, he’d provide the Mets with a rental starter to help cover innings at the back of the rotation while their top starters mend. Jacob deGrom is currently on the injured list, while neither Noah Syndergaard nor Carlos Carrasco has thrown a pitch for the Mets so far in 2021. (Carrasco is expected to return this weekend.) The need for help at the back of the rotation has been exacerbated by injuries to David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, Jordan Yamamoto and others.
Even among the Mets’ healthy starters, right-hander Taijuan Walker has begun to struggle, allowing 16 runs in his past 9 1/3 innings. The Mets already went out and acquired Rich Hill, but it seems they’re still understandably keen on stockpiling as much depth as possible for the final couple months of the season — and for a hopeful postseason bid.
The 28-year-old Davies has made 22 starts and pitched to a 4.39 ERA for the Cubs, but he’s averaged fewer than five innings per outing and carries some rather unsightly strikeout and walk rates. Davies’ 16.3 percent strikeout rate is third-lowest among qualified starters, while his 12.1 percent walk rate is the highest of any qualified starter in MLB. That 4.2 K-BB% differential is also last among qualified starters. Given that profile and the fact that he’s a pending free agent with an $8.625MM salary, Davies probably doesn’t carry too much standalone value.
It’s been a mostly quiet deadline season thus far for the Mets, who lead the NL East by three and a half games. The second-place Phillies, however, completed their second improbable walk-off comeback of the week yesterday to continue putting pressure on their rivals. Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News tweeted last night that owner Steve Cohen is pushing his front office to be active and improve the club, so it seems fair to anticipate some fireworks coming from Queens today.
Rockies Reportedly Have “No Plans” To Trade Jon Gray, Daniel Bard
7:15am: The Rockies “have no plans” to trade either Gray or closer Daniel Bard today, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
As a 36-year-old closer on a fourth-place team, Bard looked like nearly as much of a slam-dunk trade candidate as Gray and Story. He’s controlled through the 2022 season via arbitration, but relievers are inherently volatile, and the Rockies can’t be reasonably expected to contend for a division title next year.
Bard has allowed three runs in his past two outings, which has bumped his ERA up a bit, but he’s still sitting at a respectable 4.32 mark with a 28.5 percent strikeout rate and 10.9 percent walk rate. Given his 97.8 mph average fastball, his ability to miss bats and his affordable $2.925MM salary, one would imagine there’d be some decent interest in Bard.
6:37am: Despite standing out as one of the most logical trade candidates on the market, Jon Gray remains in Colorado with nine hours until this afternoon’s trade deadline. There are, of course, many likely trade candidates who’ve yet to change hands, but it seems that as is the case with Trevor Story, the Rockies are at least considering hanging onto Gray.
The right-hander himself tells Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette that he and the team have had preliminary talks about an extension, adding that he hopes to stay with the Rockies. Meanwhile, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Rockies have also considered hanging onto Gray and making him a qualifying offer at season’s end.
Gray, 29, was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2013 draft and stands out as one of the best homegrown arms the Rockies have developed. He’s in the midst of a the third sub-4.00 ERA of his season, pitching to a 3.67 ERA with a 22 percent strikeout rate, a 9.7 percent walk rate and a 49.8 percent ground-ball rate. Those strikeout and walk rates are a ways off from his career-best marks, and Gray’s 94.8 mph average heater is down a tick from his career-high 96.1 mph in 2017. But Gray is also limiting hard contact at the best rates of his career and has been a generally durable starter for the Rox this season. He’s playing on a $6MM salary in his final season of club control before free agency.
Given all that and the Rockies’ obvious lack of playoff chances, there ought to be many teams trying to acquire Gray — and it sounds as though the interest is there. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports that the Blue Jays, Padres, Mariners, White Sox and Mets are among the clubs that have scouted and shown varying levels of interest in Gray.
With Max Scherzer likely L.A.-bound and Jose Berrios now looking increasingly likely to be dealt, the floodgates on the remaining available starting pitchers could open in the hours leading up to the deadline. Gray, Michael Pineda, Zach Davies, Kyle Gibson and Merrill Kelly all seem like strong candidates to be dealt, and the removal of the market’s top two names — if Berrios is moved early in the day — should give the teams that miss out ample time to pivot to secondary targets.
Of course, that again assumes that Gray will be moved at all. The Rockies march to the beat of their own drum, to say the least. Perhaps the notion of keeping Gray and/or Story is mere posturing in an effort to extract a larger return, but the Rockies have resisted rebuilding moves for years despite rarely contending. Manager Bud Black said earlier this month they’ve already informed top starter German Marquez that he won’t be traded, which seems to suggest they believe a rapid turnaround is possible within the next couple years. So far, the Rockies’ lone move has been to trade Mychal Givens to the Reds.
Dodgers Acquire Max Scherzer And Trea Turner From Nationals For Four Prospects
In a stunning deadline blockbuster, the Dodgers acquired stars Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals. In exchange, Los Angeles sent back four prospects, including two of the top young talents in baseball. Catcher Keibert Ruiz, right-handers Josiah Gray and Gerardo Carrillo, and outfielder Donovan Casey are go to Washington. Scherzer waived his no-trade rights to facilitate the deal.
It had become clear in recent days the Nationals were likely to trade Scherzer, but the saga took its share of twists and turns along the way. The division-rival Padres were reportedly close to landing the three-time Cy Young award winner earlier in the afternoon. Other teams — the Dodgers among them — lurked on the periphery, though, and Los Angeles jumped in as the Nationals’ talks with San Diego never got across the finish line. In the process, the Dodgers also add one of the game’s best position players as part of a jaw-dropping package deal.
Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the future Hall of Famer has continued to pitch at a level close to peak form. He’s tossed 111 innings across nineteen starts, working to a 2.76 ERA/3.59 FIP. He’s given up a few home runs (1.46 HR/9), but Scherzer’s strikeout and walk numbers are still among the game’s best. The eight-time All-Star has punched out 34.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes to a meager 6.5% of opponents. Among starters with 50+ innings pitched, only Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Patrick Sandoval and Shane Bieber have generated swinging strikes at a higher clip than Scherzer’s 16.5% mark.
It’s the continuation of what was a remarkable tenure in Washington. Signed to a seven-year, $210MM deal over the 2014-15 offseason, the right-hander entered today’s outing with a 2.80 ERA/2.91 FIP across 1223 innings for the Nats. That deal proved to be one of the most successful free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer won back-to-back NL Cy Young awards in 2016-17 and was selected to the All-Star game six times, with the lone exception due to the cancelation of last year’s festivities. Perhaps most importantly, Scherzer was integral to the Nationals’ 2019 World Series title, tossing 30 frames of 2.40 ERA ball during that year’s postseason run.
Scherzer now joins a rotation that already includes Walker Buehler and is expected to soon welcome back Clayton Kershaw from the injured list. That trio would make for an incredible top three in any postseason series, to say nothing of the presence of David Price and Tony Gonsolin as options for a fourth game and/or multi-inning work out of the bullpen. (Trevor Bauer remains on administrative leave after being accused of assault; it’s not clear if/when he’ll return to the team this season).
Of course, the Dodgers still need to solidify their chances of making a playoff series to unleash that three-headed monster in October. The Dodgers are almost certain to make the playoffs in some capacity, but the Giants somewhat surprisingly remain three games up on them in the NL West race. The competition at the top of the division from San Francisco and San Diego could leave the Dodgers staring down a one-game playoff. Acquiring Scherzer gives Los Angeles another ace to potentially take the ball in a Wild Card game, but it also increases their odds of winning the division and avoiding the contest altogether.
Incredibly, Scherzer is likely the second-most valuable part of the Dodgers’ haul. While Scherzer’s slated to hit free agency at the end of this season, Turner is controllable through 2022 via arbitration and every bit as productive. Turner has been a quality player since breaking into the big leagues in 2015, but he’s developed into a true superstar over the past couple seasons. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, the 28-year-old is hitting .327/.378/.546 (145 wRC+) with 30 home runs and 33 stolen bases across 155 games and 679 plate appearances.
Turner’s one of the top few players in the sport, even if he rather remarkably didn’t make an All-Star team until this season. In addition to that high-end offense, he’s one of the game’s most dangerous baserunners and a fine defensive shortstop. FanGraphs estimates Turner’s been worth seven wins above replacement over the past two years, a mark that trails only Fernando Tatís Jr. among position players.
A good portion of Turner’s overall value comes from his aforementioned ability to play shortstop. It’s not precisely clear whether he’ll continue to do so in Los Angeles, where Corey Seager is also one of the game’s stars. Turner has some experience manning second base and in center field, and the Dodgers have never been shy about moving players around the diamond defensively.
Seager is slated to hit free agency at the end of the season, and he’ll be one of the top options on the open market. The Dodgers could use Turner in a utility-type capacity for the remainder of this season and plug him in as their regular shortstop come 2022 if Seager signs elsewhere.
Regardless of their long-term vision, it’s unquestionable that adding Turner to the roster will be a massive boon to a position player group that was already among the league’s best. Seager has missed two months after fracturing his hand, but he’s expected to return to the lineup this weekend. Turner, who landed on the injured list this week after testing positive for COVID-19 in what’ll apparently be his final game as a National, is out for at least the next week-plus.
Unsurprisingly, adding two of the sport’s best players will cost quite a bit — both financially and from a talent perspective. Scherzer is playing out the year on a $35MM salary, a little less than $12MM of which remains to be paid. That money is entirely deferred until 2028, part of a broader trend throughout the term of his deal. While Scherzer is an impending free agent, he’ll still be owed $15MM every year from 2022-28 in deferrals. The Dodgers are reportedly assuming the entirety of Scherzer’s remaining salary for 2021 (which won’t actually be paid out for seven years). Presumably, the Nationals will remain on the hook for all the deferred payments for time he’s already spent in Washington.
Turner, meanwhile, is making $13MM in his penultimate year of arbitration, which the Dodgers will also assume. Around $4.5MM of that sum remains to be paid, and he’ll surely be in line for a sizable raise this winter during his final trip through the arb process.
In addition to those salaries, the Dodgers are set to take on rather significant expenditures in luxury tax payments. The remainder of Scherzer’s contract contains a luxury tax hit in the $10MM range, while Turner’s CBT number exactly matches that of his real salary. Altogether, the Dodgers are adding something in the realm of $14.5MM to their luxury tax ledger.
That’s significant but apparently not much of a deterrent. Even before today’s acquisitions, the Dodgers had a CBT number north of $260MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That places them in the highest tax bracket, with Los Angeles subject to a 62.5% tax on any dollar spent over that mark. By assuming the remainder of Scherzer’s and Turner’s deals, the Dodgers are agreeing to pay somewhere in the range of $9MM in penalties on top of the money they’ll owe to the players.
Ownership is apparently willing to do exactly that in service of constructing a potential super-team. The defending World Series champions were arguably the most talented club in the league already, and they’ve added Scherzer, Turner and Danny Duffy to that loaded roster the day before the trade deadline.
To make that happen, Los Angeles has parted with a couple of baseball’s most talented young players. Ruiz has seemingly been on top prospect lists forever, but he’s still just 23 years old. He’s only picked up 15 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons, but he’d likely have accrued far more playing time were he playing in most other organizations.
With Will Smith entrenched as the Dodgers’ current and long-term catcher, there simply hasn’t been much opportunity for Ruiz. That said, the switch-hitting backstop has earned a major league look. He’s performed well at basically every minor league stop, and that’s continued in 2021.
Ruiz is hitting a massive .311/.381/.631 with 16 home runs across 231 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City. Baseball America just ranked him the league’s #16 overall prospect in their midseason top 100 update, lauding his elite bat-to-ball skills and suggesting he’s a solid enough defender to stick behind the plate. It’s not unreasonable to expect Ruiz to settle in as an above-average or All-Star caliber catcher given his rare offensive upside for the position.
Ruiz is already on the 40-man roster and would seem to be a big league caliber option for the Nats this season. He’s in his final minor league option year, so he’ll need to break camp with the Nationals in 2022.
Gray wasn’t too far behind Ruiz on BA’s top 100 list, checking in 56th overall and second in the Los Angeles system. The young starter draws praise for his fastball-slider combination and fantastic athleticism, which allows him to throw strikes at a strong rate. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Gray as the sport’s #29 prospect entering the season (he’s up to 21st following other players’ graduations), calling him a likely “mid-rotation stalwart” at his peak.
The 23-year-old made his major league debut last week and has pitched in a pair of big league games. Gray spent the rest of the year with Triple-A Oklahoma City, although an injured list stint caused him to miss a fair amount of time. He tossed 15 2/3 innings of 2.87 ERA ball before his promotion, his first crack at the minors’ top level.
Neither Ruiz nor Gray will accrue enough big league time to reach a full year of service in 2021. They won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season and aren’t likely to qualify for arbitration until the 2024-25 offseason. Both players have the opportunity to be long-term stalwarts in D.C., with many potential games featuring a Gray-Ruiz battery over the coming years. Gray still has all three options remaining.
Carrillo will also step directly onto Washington’s 40-man roster. His contract was selected last winter to prevent him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, but Carrillo hasn’t yet appeared in the majors. He’s spent the entire season with Double-A Tulsa, tossing 59 1/3 innings of 4.25 ERA ball. The 22-year-old has struck out a strong 26.2% of batters faced but walked an alarming 10.9% of opponents.
Both Baseball America and FanGraphs suggest that lack of control is likely to eventually push Carrillo to the bullpen, but his mid-90’s sinker and power breaking ball could suit him quite well in short stints. Longenhagen slots Carrillo tenth in the Nationals system assuming the trade is completed.
Casey will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason or he’ll be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. The former 20th-round pick (2017) isn’t seen as a particularly strong prospect, but he’s having a quality season in a pitcher-friendly Double-A environment. The 25-year-old is hitting .296/.362/.462 with 11 home runs across 334 plate appearances with Tulsa. Casey has seen action at all three outfield positions.
The blockbuster completely changes the National League outlook. The Dodgers add two of the game’s best players to a tight divisional race, seemingly acquiring Scherzer out of the Padres grasp. With a few high-profile targets (José Berríos, Trevor Story and Kris Bryant chief among them) still having a chance to wind up on the move, the Dodgers’ in-state division rivals figure to be active themselves as the deadline approaches.
Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Nationals and Dodgers were in serious discussions about a deal involving Scherzer and Turner. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported Ruiz’s and Casey’s involvement in the deal. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported Gray’s inclusion, while Jim Bowden of the Athletic was first to identify Carrillo as part of the deal. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post was first to report Scherzer’s willingness to waive his no-trade rights, and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reported that the Dodgers would assume Scherzer’s and Turner’s remaining 2021 financial obligations.
Jose Berrios Reportedly “Primary Target” For Padres
With the Padres having narrowly missed out in their efforts to land Max Scherzer, San Diego is turning their attention to the next-best starting pitcher believed to be on the trade market. Twins righty José Berríos is a “primary target” for the Friars in the coming hours, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com.
It’s not especially surprising to hear the Padres’ front office is pivoting back to Berríos. San Diego was reportedly focused on Berríos throughout much of the week. That looked to be off the table when the Padres were seemingly on the verge of landing Scherzer. With the latter now likely headed to the division-rival Dodgers, a push for Berríos is apparently back on the docket.
Berríos isn’t the Padres’ only target, though, as Cassavell adds that San Diego could make multiple additions to the starting staff (with or without Berríos included). San Diego did already bolster the bullpen by acquiring Daniel Hudson in a late night deal with the Nationals. It seems the rotation is now the priority, with Cassavell noting that Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are the only locks to pitch in a playoff rotation — should the Padres advance to an NLDS. Berríos, who has a 3.48 ERA/3.74 SIERA over 121 2/3 innings this season, would be an impactful enough arm to join Darvish and Musgrove in that group.
Of course, there’s no shortage of interest in Berríos. The right-hander’s controllable via arbitration through 2022 and making an affordable $6.1MM this season (about $2.1MM of which is still owed). Jon Heyman of MLB Network reiterates that the Blue Jays have “big interest” in Berríos and adds that the Rays and Red Sox are still in the mix. Dan Hayes of the Athletic suggests the Twins have interest in some of the Jays top position player prospects (Austin Martin, Orelvis Martinez and Jordan Groshans among them). The Mariners have also been linked to Berríos, as have the Mets. Recent indications are that New York isn’t likely to land him, though, with the Mets deterred by the Twins’ lofty asking price.
Padres Acquire Daniel Hudson From Nationals
The Padres have acquired one of the top relievers on the trade market. San Diego announced a deal with the Nationals to add Daniel Hudson to the late-inning mix. Two prospects — pitcher Mason Thompson and infielder Jordy Barley — are expected to head to Washington in return.
Hudson becomes the latest player out the door as part of the Nationals broader sell-off. Washington is finalizing a deal to send Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to the Dodgers and has already announced agreements to move Brad Hand and Kyle Schwarber. Once GM Mike Rizzo and his staff embarked on the teardown, a Hudson deal became increasingly likely given his impending free agency.
The right-hander has long been a productive reliever, but he’s taken his game to a new level this year. The 34-year-old has a career-low 2.20 ERA across 32 2/3 innings, striking out an elite 37.8% of opposing hitters against a tidy 5.5% walk rate. There’s little question he’s capable of stepping into high-leverage innings for the Padres, who are amidst a three-way battle in the NL West. That won’t be the case immediately, though, as Hudson landed on the COVID-19 injured list this morning as the virus spread throughout Washington’s clubhouse.
Hudson is playing out the season on a $6MM contract, a bit more than $2MM of which is still owed. His two-year, $11MM deal comes with a $5.5MM luxury tax hit, which prorates to about $1.9MM. The Padres are reportedly a bit over the $210MM threshold, but indications are that ownership is willing to pay some extra expenditures. The Friars’ reported talks with the Nationals about Scherzer this afternoon would’ve likely pushed San Diego well above that line had they resulted in a deal, for instance. Of course, there’s also the possibility that Washington retains some salary.
In order to add Hudson for the stretch run, San Diego parts with Thompson, a 2016 third-round draftee. The righty has made his first four big league appearances this season but spent the bulk of the year with Triple-A El Paso. A pure reliever, Thompson has tossed 26 2/3 innings over 23 appearances, working to a 5.74 ERA with slightly lower than average strikeout and walk rates (21.8% and 7.3%, respectively) in that hitter-friendly environment. He’s already on the 40-man roster and has a pair of minor league option years remaining beyond the current season.
Barley has been in the Padres organization since signing as a member of San Diego’s massive 2016-17 international class. At one point, the speedster was a fairly well-regarded prospect, but he’s struggled to hit in the low minors. Barley has posted higher than average strikeout rates throughout his professional career, and that’s continued this season. The 21-year-old is hitting .240/.333/.388 with a 29.4% strikeout percentage in Low-A. Entering the season, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Barley as the #28 talent in the Padres system.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Padres and Nationals were in discussions on a Hudson deal. Jim Bowden of the Athletic confirmed the trade had been agreed upon. Dennis Lin of the Athletic was first to report Thompson’s inclusion. Jon Heyman of MLB Network was first to report a second prospect was involved, with Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post specifying Barley’s inclusion.
Red Sox Acquire Kyle Schwarber From Nationals
The Red Sox have made a significant addition to the lineup, announcing the acquisition of corner outfielder Kyle Schwarber from the Nationals. Pitching prospect Aldo Ramirez is headed back to Washington in return. To create 40-man roster space, Boston designated reliever Brandon Workman for assignment.
It’s the continuation of a rapid sell-off for the Nationals, who were straddling the line between buying and selling as recently as last week. A recent run of poor play has made their direction clear, with Washington moving a series of veterans in rapid succession. No move was bigger than the reported Max Scherzer – Trea Turner blockbuster with the Dodgers, of course. But Washington has also traded reliever Brad Hand and Schwarber today, and it seems there’s more on the horizon. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reported this evening the Nats are also fielding offers on reliever Daniel Hudson, utilityman Josh Harrison and potentially on catcher Yan Gomes.
Schwarber is currently on the 10-day injured list on account of a right hamstring strain. It seems he’s still a couple weeks away from returning, but he was on an absolute tear before he went down. The 28-year-old won the National League Player of the Month award in June after blasting a league-best sixteen home runs. Thanks largely to that incredible run, Schwarber’s amidst the best season of his career. The left-handed hitting slugger has a .253/.340/.570 line (138 wRC+) with 25 homers across 303 plate appearances.
That level of play certainly warranted Washington’s $10MM investment in Schwarber last offseason. He’s playing the 2021 campaign on a $7MM salary, with around $2.4MM still to be paid through the end of the season. Schwarber is also guaranteed a $3MM buyout on an $11MM mutual option covering the 2022 campaign. Mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, so the Sox are likely to view Schwarber as a rental acquisition. The midseason trade rules out any chance that Schwarber’s tagged with a qualifying offer this winter.
Schwarber has primarily been a corner outfielder over the course of his career, but it’s possible the Red Sox front office views him as a potential solution for their subpar first base situation. While he’s never played the position in the major leagues, it would be a surprise if he didn’t see some time there in Boston.
The Sox have gotten good work from Alex Verdugo and Hunter Renfroe in the corner outfield this year. Either of those players are capable of kicking over to center field in a pinch, but with top prospect Jarren Duran now in the big leagues, it seems likely there’ll be some days where Schwarber lines up at first with that trio manning the grass. Obviously, J.D. Martinez has the designated hitter spot spoken for.
However Alex Cora decides to manage his roster, there’s no question Boston’s making an offensive upgrade. The Red Sox hold a modest 1.5 game lead in the American League East over the Rays, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom and the front office continue to explore other acquisitions in the coming hours.
Neither team made mention of cash considerations, so it seems as though the Red Sox will assume the remainder of the money owed to Schwarber. That’s a rather significant development, as taking on the prorated portion of Schwarber’s $10MM luxury tax hit puts the Sox near the $210MM CBT threshold. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates Boston’s current luxury number at just below $214MM. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, however, reports the Red Sox are “scraping” the tax threshold but haven’t yet exceeded it. Speier suggests the club is exploring deals that might eventually take them over that mark, particularly as part of an ongoing effort to bolster the pitching staff.
In exchange for Schwarber, the Nationals pick up a promising young arm in the lower levels of the system. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs immediately slotted Ramirez as the #8 prospect in the organization. Over the offseason, Longenhagen wrote that the righty had a velocity spike that pushed his high-spin fastball into the low 90’s. Ramirez has a good changeup and advanced control, and he’s performed well this season. The 21-year-old has tossed 31 innings of 2.03 ERA ball in Low-A, striking out a decent 24.6% of opponents with a minuscule 6.2% walk rate.
The Schwarber acquisition ends Workman’s second stint with the Red Sox. Signed to a minor league deal after being cut loose by the Cubs, the right-hander tossed 18 innings of 3.50 ERA ball with Boston. His peripherals didn’t support that level of run prevention, though, as Workman has issued fourteen walks while striking out thirteen. It’s possible he’s traded before tomorrow afternoon’s deadline, but it seems likelier he’ll wind up on the waiver wire. If he clears waivers, Workman would have the right to elect free agency.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Red Sox were acquiring Schwarber. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported Ramirez’s inclusion.
Dodgers Acquire Danny Duffy From Royals
The Royals parted ways with one of the faces of their franchise this evening, announcing a trade to send Danny Duffy to the Dodgers in exchange for a player to be named later. Kansas City will include an undisclosed amount of cash to offset some or all of his remaining salary. To create 40-man roster space, the Dodgers designated outfielder DJ Peters for assignment.
Duffy had full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player (one with ten years of major league service, the five most recent having been with the same team). However, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported a few weeks ago the Southern California native might be willing waive that protection to facilitate a deal to a West Coast club. That has indeed proven to be the case. The southpaw is currently on the 10-day injured list with a flexor strain in his throwing forearm, but Kansas City general manager Dayton Moore told reporters this week he’d be able to return at some point this season, perhaps near the end of August.
The move brings to an end — at least temporarily — Duffy’s long tenure in the Royals organization. Kansas City selected him out of high school in the third round of the 2007 draft. He made his big league debut in 2011 and has been with the club for over a decade, crossing the ten-year service milestone last month.
It was an unequivocally successful Kansas City tenure for Duffy, who emerged as a fixture in the rotation for almost the entirety of that time. He’s pitched to a 3.95 ERA across 1172 1/3 innings over the course of his career. A key piece of the Royals’ 2015 World Series championship team, Duffy signed a five-year, $65MM extension in January 2017.
That deal expires at the end of the season, though. With the Royals in fourth place in the AL Central, there’s plenty of sense in moving his final few months of team control to add some younger talent. For Duffy, the trade serves him well geographically and gives him an opportunity to pitch in a pennant race at the end of the year.
Of course, nothing stops the Royals from pursuing a reunion with Duffy this winter. He’s beloved amongst team personnel and fans. It seems that’s reciprocated, as the 32-year-old has gone on record in the past about his affinity for the organization and the city. The Royals haven’t been shy about pursuing free agent reunions with members of their mid-2010’s teams in recent years, and it’s possible they’ll take a similar course of action with Duffy during the upcoming offseason.
For the stretch run, the Dodgers are adding a pitcher who quietly had a fantastic start to the year — one that contributed to the Royals’ league-best record over the first few weeks of the season. Through his first seven starts, Duffy tossed 41 2/3 innings of 1.94 ERA/2.34 FIP ball. He struck out a lofty 28.2% of opposing hitters in that time against a tiny 7.1% walk rate and looked to have returned to the mid-rotation form he showed during his peak seasons.
Duffy landed on the IL with a flexor strain on May 17 and missed around five weeks. He built back arm strength on the fly upon his return, working shorter stints at the big league level rather than embarking upon a rehab assignment. Duffy stretched back out to five innings by early July, but he eventually went down with the same injury and landed on the IL on July 20.
It’s not clear how much volume Los Angeles can expect from Duffy, given that he won’t have much time to rehab from his latest injury. The Dodgers have been known to be on the hunt for starting pitching, but it’s also possible they activate Duffy as a multi-inning relief weapon. Whatever the role, the hope is he’ll be able to help the Dodgers in their battle with the Giants and Padres for the NL West and during their postseason run. The Duffy addition didn’t deter the Dodgers from putting together a prospect package likely to land Max Scherzer from the Nationals.
Duffy is making $15.5MM this season, around $5.4MM of which remains to be paid. It’s not precisely clear how much of the tab the Royals are picking up. Duffy’s luxury tax figure (calculated by the contract’s average annual value, not actual salary) is $13MM — so he carries an approximate $4.5MM luxury number the rest of the way. The Dodgers have already exceeded $260MM in luxury tax obligations, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That puts them in the highest bracket, so they’ll pay a 62.5% tax on any expenditures they take on this summer (on Duffy’s contract and other potential acquisitions).
To determine their return, the Royals will be free to choose from an agreed-upon list of players in the Dodgers’ system. They’ll have up to six months to make a decision, with the PTBNL setup particularly helpful for teams to continue to evaluate prospects after last year’s minor league season was canceled. Players selected in the 2021 draft cannot be traded as players to be named later until after the season is finished.
Peters has long been considered one of the more interesting position player prospects in the Dodgers organization. His combination of big raw power and speed has impressed scouts, and he’s generally been productive at the minor league level despite a sky-high strikeout rate. That hasn’t been the case this season, though, as the right-handed hitter has stumbled to a .223/.319/.372 line over 204 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City.
The Dodgers could trade Peters before tomorrow’s deadline. If they don’t, he’ll find himself on waivers. Between his proximity to the big leagues (Peters actually made a brief debut this year), decent prospect pedigree, and pair of remaining minor league option years, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he finds himself on another roster in the coming days.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Duffy was being traded to the Dodgers. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the Royals would receive a player to be named later. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the inclusion of cash in the deal.
Mariners’ Hector Santiago Receives 80-Game Suspension
Mariners left-hander Hector Santiago has been served an 80-game suspension from the league office for violating MLB’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. Per a press release from the league, Santiago tested positive for exogenous Testosterone. Santiago will be suspended without pay, and the suspension will begin immediately.
This marks the second suspension of note for Santiago this season alone. He was served a 10-game suspension for possessing a foreign substance. Santiago was adamant in his defense in that case, though the suspension was ultimately at the discretion of the umpires who made the call on the field.
The well-traveled veteran had been a solid contributor for the Mariners this season through 13 appearances. As a multi-inning option out of the pen, the 33-year-old pitched to a 3.42 ERA/3.12 FIP across 26 1/3 innings with a 25.6 percent strikeout rate, 9.4 percent walk rate, and 44.7 percent groundball rate. The strikeout rate was quite a bit higher than his 20.7 percent career average, though the improvement tracks back through the 2019 season as well. He did not pitch in 2020.
For his career, Santiago owns a 4.12 ERA/4.86 FIP across 947 innings for the White Sox, Angels, Twins, Mets, and Mariners. He was mostly a starter earlier in his career, making at least 23 starts in each season from 2013 to 2016. His success in that role was marginal, however, as he never again topped the 1.2 fWAR he put up for the White Sox in 2013.
Terry Francona Steps Away From Indians For Remainder Of 2021 Season
The Indians announced this evening that manager Terry Francona will take a leave of absence from the team to address health concerns. Bench coach DeMarlo Hale will assume interim managerial duties for the remainder of the season. Hale was named Cleveland’s bench coach last November and has managed four games at the major league level (with the Blue Jays in 2015-16).
Francona is going for a hip replacement next week and will also need to undergo foot surgery in the coming months, reports Mandy Bell of MLB.com (Twitter link). Given those health issues, he obviously didn’t feel capable of continuing in his current capacity over the season’s final two months.
The veteran skipper also missed a significant amount of time last season on account of health concerns. There’s no indication the 62-year-old will not return to the Cleveland managerial chair next year, however. He has led the team since October 2012, winning three consecutive AL Central titles from 2016-18. MLBTR wishes Francona the best in his recovery.
Padres Close To Acquiring Max Scherzer, But Other Teams Still In The Mix
6:19 pm: The Angels are also still in the mix for Scherzer, according to Heyman.
4:40 pm: Other teams are indeed still trying to top the Padres’ offer for Scherzer, says Rosenthal. While Washington and San Diego have “essentially” agreed on the framework of a trade, the various obstacles involved with Scherzer’s situation (particularly his no-trade rights) continue to loom over the discussions.
3:58 pm: While the Padres are heavily involved in the market for Scherzer, Heyman reiterates that other clubs (perhaps including the Dodgers, Giants and Red Sox) still believe they have a chance to land the ace.
3:24 pm: The teams have agreed on the players involved, pending medical reviews, according to Jim Bowden of the Athletic. Scherzer still needs to waive his no-trade rights, although recent reports suggested he’d be willing to do so to move to one of the NL West contenders.
3:12 pm: The Padres are nearing a deal to acquire Max Scherzer, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). Jon Morosi of MLB.com had reported the Friars’ efforts to land Scherzer were “intensifying” moments before Rosenthal. The deal is not yet complete, cautions Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
Assuming the deal eventually crosses the finish line, it’ll be the latest in a line of impact starting pitching acquisitions for San Diego that dates back to last summer. Within the past twelve months, the Padres have acquired Mike Clevinger, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. They’re now on the verge of landing perhaps their most notable pitcher of all, a three-time Cy Young award winner who started for the National League in this year’s All-Star game.
Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the future Hall of Famer has continued to pitch at a level close to peak form. He’s tossed 111 innings across nineteen starts, working to a 2.76 ERA/3.59 FIP. He’s given up a few home runs (1.46 HR/9), but Scherzer’s strikeout and walk numbers are still among the game’s best. The eight-time All-Star has punched out 34.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes to a meager 6.5% of opponents. Among starters with 50+ innings pitched, only Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Patrick Sandoval and Shane Bieber have generated swinging strikes at a higher clip than Scherzer’s 16.5% mark.
It’s the continuation of what has been a remarkable tenure in Washington. Signed to a seven-year, $210MM deal over the 2014-15 offseason, the right-hander entered today’s outing with a 2.80 ERA/2.91 FIP across 1223 innings for the Nats. It proved to be one of the most successful free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer won back-to-back NL Cy Young awards in 2016-17. He was selected to the All-Star game six times, with the lone exception due to the cancelation of last year’s festivities. And Scherzer was integral to the Nationals’ 2019 World Series title, tossing 30 frames of 2.40 ERA ball during that year’s postseason run.
With Scherzer scheduled to reach free agency again this offseason, the Washington front office was faced with a decision — hold onto Scherzer in hopes of making a playoff push, or move him to a contender for an influx of young talent? For a while, it seemed as though the Nats would play well enough that keeping Scherzer was the obvious choice. They’ve struggled coming out of the All-Star Break, though, with a sweep at the hands of the Orioles last weekend seemingly sealing the team’s fate as sellers.
Washington sits at 47-54, fourth place in the National League East and seven games back of the division-leading Mets. They entered play today with just a 1.1% chance of reaching the postseason, in the estimation of FanGraphs. Nationals brass hasn’t traditionally been keen on trading away star players. Still, the deficit became too much to reasonably expect to overcome, particularly with Stephen Strasburg officially done for the season and star shortstop Trea Turner now out for the next-week plus after testing positive for COVID-19.
Successful and beloved as Scherzer has been in Washington, it became apparent in recent days that a trade would be in the cards. Such a move isn’t without complications though, most notably Scherzer’s full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player (one with ten years of major league service, the past five of which have come with the same team).
Scott Boras, Scherzer’s agent, suggested earlier in the summer that the pitcher could require some form of contractual inducement (perhaps even an extension) to approve any deal. He later walked back those comments, though, and recent reports suggested Scherzer was willing to approve a move to certain destinations — particularly those on the West Coast. Obviously, the Padres would fit that bill, but the Nationals were still motivated to work out a deal well in advance of tomorrow’s 4:00 pm EST deadline in order to sort that situation out.
There’s also the matter of finances to consider. Scherzer’s playing out the year on a significant $35MM salary, a little less than $12MM of which remains to be paid. That money is entirely deferred until 2028, part of a broader trend throughout the term of his deal. While Scherzer is an impending free agent, he’ll still be owed $15MM every year from 2022-28 in deferrals. It’s not precisely clear how the Nationals and Padres will divide those payments (assuming the trade is completed), although the majority of those obligations will certainly be paid by the Nationals.
The Padres’ series of big-ticket trade and free agent acquisitions in recent years has pushed their payroll to unprecedented heights for the organization. The Friars are reportedly a little above the $210MM luxury tax threshold. Scherzer’s prorated luxury tax hit for the remainder of the season is right around $10MM. If the Friars pick up the remainder of his contractual obligations, they’ll certainly wind up above the luxury threshold, although previous reports suggested ownership was willing to greenlight such a move to accommodate an impactful summer acquisition.
San Diego would be a first-time payor of the competitive balance tax. That’d subject the franchise to a 20% tax on any overage between $210MM and $230MM (an approximate $2MM penalty if they assume Scherzer’s remaining deal). Should the Friars push their luxury number above $230MM, they’d pay a 32% tax on expenditures between that number and $250MM.
Either way, the overage penalties are an exceedingly small price to pay for a pitcher of Scherzer’s caliber. The Padres entered play today in third place in the NL West, 5.5 games back of the Giants. They’re 3.5 behind the Dodgers for the top Wild Card spot but five games clear of the Reds for the NL’s final postseason spot. The Friars seem likely to make the playoffs in some capacity. If acquired, Scherzer would be an option to start a potential Wild Card game.
If San Diego gets into an NLDS, a playoff rotation involving Scherzer, Darvish, and Musgrove would be capable of shutting down the best opposing lineups. That’s without even accounting for Snell, Dinelson Lamet, Ryan Weathers or Chris Paddack, who could be options to start a fourth game and/or work multiple innings of relief.
The Padres’ acquisition of Scherzer (if completed) would also have huge implications on the trade market for other top starting pitchers — most notably Minnesota’s José Berríos. San Diego was reportedly heavily involved in the Berríos market in recent days. A Scherzer pickup would seemingly take them out of that mix, but the other two NL West contenders are among the teams known to be interested in the Twins’ righty.
The Dodgers and Giants probably won’t feel obligated to up their offers on Berríos specifically because the Padres are on the verge of a Scherzer deal. Front offices don’t tend to be that reactionary to division rivals’ moves in this day and age. But both those teams were also speculated as potential fits for Scherzer, and his landing elsewhere could leave Berríos as the only true top-of-the-rotation arm still available in the next 24 hours.