Pablo López Undergoes Internal Brace Procedure
Feb. 26: López wound up “only” requiring an internal brace procedure rather than a full Tommy John surgery/ligament reconstruction, Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune writes. López will still miss the entire 2026 season, but the internal brace route comes with a slightly shorter timeline than a full reconstruction. López now has a better chance of being available for Opening Day 2027.
Feb. 20: Twins right-hander Pablo López will have Tommy John surgery on Wednesday, per Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic. Earlier this week, the Twins revealed that he had tearing in his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament. He took a few days to explore a second opinion but it seems there was no avoiding the worst-case scenario.
It’ll be the second Tommy John procedure for López. His first was more than a decade ago. He’ll miss the entire 2026 season and hope to be ready early in the 2027 campaign, which will be the final season of his four-year, $73.5MM contract with the Twins. López is being paid $21.75MM both this season and next.
The Twins acquired López and a pair of prospects from the Marlins in the Jan. 2023 trade that sent Luis Arraez to Miami. He’s been a rocksteady performer near the top of Minnesota’s rotation for the past three seasons, pitching to a combined 3.68 ERA with even more impressive rate stats (26.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 43.1 GB%). Metrics like SIERA (3.48) and FIP (3.44) feel he’s been a hair better than his already solid earned run average would indicate.
In 2025, López raced out of the gates with a 2.82 ERA and his typically strong rate stats through his first 11 starts (60 2/3 innings). A Grade 2 strain of his teres major suffered in early June wound up costing him about three months, however. López returned with three sharp starts in September, allowing four runs in 15 innings, before ending the season on the injured list due to a minor forearm strain.
The Twins said after the season that López could have pitched through the injury had the team been in the playoff hunt but opted to shut him down with their season already lost. He received a clean bill of health not long after and had a generally normal offseason. The UCL tear seemingly popped up during his first bullpen session this spring.
Although Minnesota tore the bullpen down last summer at the deadline and sold off several impending free agents (a total of 11 players), they opted not to completely rebuild this winter. After some early uncertainty about how they’d approach the offseason, the team’s sale of a minority stake to three new shareholders gave the front office the necessary space to make some modest additions. Victor Caratini, Josh Bell and Taylor Rogers all signed as free agents, and the Twins opted not to trade López, rotationmate Joe Ryan, catcher Ryan Jeffers (a free agent next winter) or franchise center fielder Byron Buxton.
New executive chair Tom Pohlad has been vocal about his desire to compete and his belief that the roster has a better chance at doing so than those outside the organization think. The Twins made a late run at Framber Valdez and also jumped into the Freddy Peralta bidding, with both of those late-offseason overtures coming after the ownership situation had gained some clarity. Obviously, neither came to fruition, but it stands to reason based on those two efforts that the Twins could at least consider going outside the organization, where Lucas Giolito and old friend Zack Littell are among the notable veterans who’ve yet to sign a contract.
With López formally out for the year, it’ll almost certainly fall to fellow right-hander Joe Ryan to take the mound on Opening Day. Right-hander Bailey Ober will look to bounce back from a season that was torched by an awful June (after which he went on the injured list due to a hip injury). Simeon Woods Richardson is out of minor league options and logged a 4.04 ERA in 111 1/3 innings last year (including a flat 3.00 ERA over his final 14 starts). He should be all but assured a rotation spot as well.
Homegrown former top prospects Zebby Matthews and David Festa will join deadline pickups Taj Bradley and Mick Abel in competing for Opening Day rotation spots, while prospects like Connor Prielipp, Kendry Rojas and Andrew Morris could challenge for innings as the season wears on, depending on health and performance in Triple-A.
The Opener: Imai, Kolek, Scherzer
Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:
1. Imai to make stateside debut:
New Astros right-hander Tatsuya Imai has pitched his entire career in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, but he’ll make his first career MLB Spring Training appearance later today. Imai is the scheduled start for the Astros’ split squad game against the Mets, which is set to begin at 1:05pm ET in the team’s West Palm Beach facility. The righty has a career 3.15 ERA in 159 starts for the Seibu Lions and in 2025 posted a dominant 1.92 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. The 27-year-old flamethrower will get his first opportunity to show what he can do against big league players later today.
2. Kolek dealing with back issue:
Royals right-hander Stephen Kolek was scheduled to make his first appearance of Spring Training for the Royals yesterday, but Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports that he was scratched from his scheduled outing after experiencing tightness in the left side of his back while warming up. He’s getting his back checked out, and more information about the right-hander’s status could be available as soon as today. Kolek posted a 3.51 ERA in 19 starts between the Padres and Royals, who acquired him (and Ryan Bergert) in a deadline trade sending catcher Freddy Fermin to San Diego. That may not be enough to crack a deep Royals rotation without an injury creating room in the starting five, but Kolek should be able to compete for a job in the bullpen or head to Triple-A Omaha as the organization’s top depth arm, as long as he’s not dealing with a notable back injury.
3. Scherzer signing in Toronto:
Another notable free agent came off the board last night when future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer returned to the Blue Jays on a one-year, $3MM deal featuring incentives that can push the deal up to $13MM. Scherzer will hope for better health than in 2025, when he was limited to just 17 starts with a lackluster 5.19 ERA. The Blue Jays certainly seem to think he’s still capable of more even headed into his age-41 campaign, and they’re committed enough to the idea of Scherzer contributing this year that they’re willing to dedicate a 40-man roster spot to the veteran. That means a corresponding move will be necessary once the deal becomes official, though moving Anthony Santander (who is expected to miss most of the 2026 campaign) to the 60-day injured list would make that little more than a formality.
MLB Mailbag: Giolito, Littell, Kopech, White Sox, Mets
This week's mailbag gets into the lingering free agencies of Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, and Michael Kopech, multiple White Sox questions, a look at the Mets' rotation, and much more.
Marshal asks:
Why do we think Giolito and Littell have yet to sign? Most other FA left have large red flags either in past performance or injuries. These two are a clear cut above the rest (with the exception of Scherzer who reportedly is being picky about which team). Is it that they are being picky about what team, or are they holding out for bigger money? Teams like the Braves, Angels, A's and more could easily fit these guys into the middle/back of their rotation and yet they all seem unwilling to make a move for these two. Is it related to the TV deals collapsing?
Generally when a pitcher is unsigned this late in the offseason, there's a likely mismatch between their expectations and reality.
In terms of late-signing quality free agent pitchers who did not receive a qualifying offer, one recent example was Jordan Montgomery. He went out looking for over $100MM, and wound up signing a one-year deal (with a vesting option) on March 26th of 2024.
A more distant but also more comparable example was Jake Odorizzi. He'd accepted a qualifying offer for 2020, but wound up pitching only 13 2/3 innings for the Twins due to injuries and the shortened season. We pegged him for three years and $39MM nonetheless, and it was later revealed his asking price was indeed in that range. Amid a pandemic, Odorizzi wasn't able to find that, and instead settled for a $23.5MM guarantee from the Astros on March 8th.
We projected two years and $32MM for Giolito back on November 6th. When I was making my own projection in October, I went with three years and $51MM, but didn't mind bringing that down given the uncertain status of his elbow. That injury ended Giolito's season on September 23rd; he wasn't able to make it back for the postseason. The righty professed full health in November. So why is he still unsigned?
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MLBTR Podcast: Twins And Orioles’ Injuries, The Guardians And Angels’ Quiet Offseasons, And Chris Sale’s Extension
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Twins right-hander Pablo López requiring Tommy John surgery (3:20)
- The Orioles losing Jordan Westburg due to a partially torn UCL in his elbow (13:15)
- The Guardians signing Rhys Hoskins to a minor league deal but doing little else this winter (23:45)
- Angels owner Arte Moreno making some curious statements (35:50)
- The Braves and Chris Sale signing an extension (47:35)
- Tony Clark resigning as executive director of the MLBPA and being replaced by Bruce Meyer (53:40)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Tigers’ Rotation, A Brewers-Red Sox Trade, And Late Free-Agent Signings – listen here
- Twins Front Office Shake-Up, The Brendan Donovan Trade, Eugenio Suarez, And More! – listen here
- Examining MLB’s Parity Situation – Also, Bellinger, Peralta, Robert, And Gore – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Jonah Hinebaugh, Imagn Images
Poll: Will Both Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter Break Camp With Phillies?
The Phillies mostly ran things back over the offseason. They re-signed Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto. Their only notable external acquisitions were Adolis García, Brad Keller and Jonathan Bowlan. They let Ranger Suárez and Harrison Bader walk while parting ways with Matt Strahm and Nick Castellanos.
It’s apparent the front office wanted to leave opportunities for two of their most talented young players to break into what is otherwise one of the older core groups in MLB. The door is open for both Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter to head north out of Spring Training. The 22-year-old prospects will look to cement their spots in camp.
Crawford is coming off a fantastic Triple-A season. He hit .334/.411/.452 while stealing 46 bases (albeit with 11 times caught). He walked in nearly 12% of his trips to the plate against a lower than average 18% strikeout rate. The lefty hitter only connected on seven home runs because his swing is geared to hit almost everything on the ground. While that caps his power potential, there’s no need to mess with the mechanics of a player who has hit .322 with a .385 on-base percentage in his minor league career.
Prospect evaluators had varying opinions on Crawford earlier in his minor league days. He was a first-round pick (and the son of a four-time All-Star), so he has certainly had his share of acclaim, but the unconventional offensive approach gave some scouts pause. It has played at every minor league stop, raising the confidence level that Crawford can continue to hit against the highest level arms.
Crawford probably would have made his big league debut late last season if the Phillies hadn’t acquired Bader. He enters Spring Training as the favorite to start in center field on Opening Day, pushing Brandon Marsh to left field. The Phillies could shield him from left-handed pitching on occasion but are planning for him to be a regular. “If you’re going to give Crawford an opportunity, you’ve got to give it to him, and that’s where we are,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in December. “We’re going to give him an opportunity and have him play a lot.”
Philadelphia won’t officially make the decision until Opening Day. They’ve had Crawford as the starting center fielder alongside their other regulars in the first few Spring Training contests. He should win the job unless he suffers an injury during exhibition play. If he does or struggles badly enough in Spring Training that they reconsider that plan, they’d probably be looking at Johan Rojas and Marsh splitting center field work with a rotating group of corner bats in left.
Painter might have a little more work to do during camp. Zack Wheeler won’t be ready for the start of the season. That draws Painter into the fifth starter role behind Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker. There are a few starters lingering on the free agent market (e.g. Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, Max Scherzer). It’s early enough in camp that those pitchers could be ready for Opening Day if they sign within the next week or so. The Phillies have monitored the market for rotation depth, so an addition that pushes Painter back to Triple-A Lehigh Valley doesn’t seem out of the question.
Philadelphia’s rotation beyond their projected top six arms (Wheeler included) is thin. If they lose anyone else before Wheeler returns from his thoracic outlet procedure, they’d probably be pressed into using a minor league signee like Bryse Wilson or Tucker Davidson. There’s an argument for signing a Littell type and having Painter be their first man up in the event of an injury.
The 6’7″ righty also hasn’t mastered Triple-A competition the way that Crawford did last year. Painter made 22 starts and tossed 106 2/3 innings but struggled to a 5.40 earned run average with Lehigh Valley. He struck out an above-average 23.4% of opponents while walking just under 10% of batters faced. The stuff was quite good — a 97 mph average fastball headlining a five-pitch mix — but he was more susceptible to the home run ball than the Phils probably anticipated. While he remains one of the most talented pitching prospects in the sport, his seeming fast track to the majors was halted by Tommy John surgery that wiped out 2023-24 and last season’s uneven return.
Crawford and Painter meet the criteria for the Prospect Promotion Incentive. If the Phillies carry them for a full service year, they could each earn the team an extra draft choice if they play well enough to factor into awards consideration. They’d be on track to hit free agency after the 2031 season if they break camp and perform well enough to remain in the majors permanently. Keeping either player in the minors for a couple weeks would delay that by a year unless they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting.
Will both players be on the roster when the Phillies welcome Texas to Citizens Bank Park on March 26?
Will Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter break camp?
-
Both players are on the Opening Day roster. 53% (1,262)
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Crawford breaks camp; Painter starts in the minors. 33% (793)
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Both players begin the season in the minors. 9% (212)
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Painter breaks camp; Crawford starts in the minors. 6% (133)
Total votes: 2,400
Tigers Sign Colin Poche To Minor League Deal
The Tigers are signing veteran reliever Colin Poche to a minor league contract, as first announced by the training facility Driveline Baseball. Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports that the ISE Baseball client will not receive an invite to big league camp.
Poche pitched in the big leagues as recently as last June. He made 13 early-season appearances with the Nationals and had a one-game cameo with the Mets on June 28. Opponents tagged him for 14 runs (13 earned) on 12 hits and 14 walks in just 9 1/3 innings. Poche also had a rough year with the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate and was released in August.
The 32-year-old pitched in the Puerto Rican Winter League this offseason. He gave up six runs on eight hits and seven walks over 6 2/3 innings. Poche has had a very tough time finding the strike zone of late. That hadn’t been a huge issue for the southpaw before last season. Poche had a 3.63 ERA with an unexceptional 9.2% walk percentage in 208 1/3 MLB frames with the Rays from 2019-24. He struck out 27% of batters faced.
The extent of Poche’s recent struggles will keep him from getting a look in Spring Training. He’s not on the radar for an Opening Day job and should begin the season at Triple-A Toledo. If he can get the strike-throwing back on track, he could put himself in the mix for a midseason middle relief spot. Poche has never had huge velocity, but he has an extreme over-the-top arm angle and a backspinning fastball that can be tough to track at the top of the strike zone. At his best, he missed bats and induced a lot of easy pop-ups by running the four-seamer above barrels.
Latest On A.J. Minter
Mets left-hander A.J. Minter seems to be trending towards spending the first few weeks of the season on the injured list. He tells Anthony DiComo of MLB.com that he’s about a month behind the other pitchers in camp. He hopes to get into a Grapefruit League game before spring training is done but isn’t guaranteed to do so. The injury tracker at MLB.com lists his expected return as early May.
Minter, 32, underwent surgery to repair a torn lat in early May. It was known that his 2025 season would be ended by that surgery but his timeline beyond that hasn’t been clear. President of baseball operations David Stearns said in December that Minter was questionable for Opening Day. Now it seems that Opening Day has been ruled out. If he is healthy enough for game action near Opening Day, he should require a rehab assignment of a few weeks.
The lefty is coming off a few injury-marred seasons but had a really good run before that. From 2020 to 2023, he gave Atlanta 208 2/3 innings while allowing 2.89 earned runs per nine. He struck out 30.7% of batters faced while only giving out walks at a 7.8% pace.
In 2024, he was putting up similar numbers but made multiple trips to the IL due to left hip issues and ultimately underwent surgery. He missed the rest of that season and became a free agent, which is when the Mets signed him to a two-year, $22MM deal with an opt-out halfway through. He was healthy enough by Opening Day last year to break camp with the Mets but only tossed 11 innings before the lat strain popped up. After missing most of the 2025 campaign, he understandably decided not to opt out of the second year of his contract.
Minter will be looking to get back to that 2020-23 form with the Mets this year but it seems he will still miss a bit of time. That will leave the club to open the season without Minter in the southpaw relief group. Brooks Raley projects as the top lefty for now. They also have Bryan Hudson, whom they acquired from the White Sox a couple of weeks ago. Those are the only two healthy southpaw relievers on the roster. Sean Manaea and David Peterson are lefties but both should be in the rotation.
The Mets have a number of non-roster lefties with big league experience in camp, including Brandon Waddell, Joe Jacques, Anderson Severino and Nate Lavender. If the Mets want to bolster their depth, free agency still has some options, including Justin Wilson, Danny Coulombe, Joey Lucchesi and others. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Mets work the waiver wire, as they were fairly active this winter in rotating players through the spots at the edge of their roster. It’s also possible some more arms become available when pitchers on minor league deals with other clubs don’t break camp and trigger opt-outs.
Photo courtesy of Reinhold Matay, Imagn Images
Red Sox Notes: Abreu, Casas, Rodgers
The Red Sox and outfielder Wilyer Abreu had some extension talks a couple of years ago, reports Tim Healey of The Boston Globe. “It wasn’t the right moment to do it,” Abreu told the Globe. “So I just wanted to play and see what happened in the future.”
The Sox have done a number of extensions since Craig Breslow was hired as chief baseball officer in the fall of 2023. Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela were signed going into the 2024 season. One year later, Garrett Crochet and Kristian Campbell put pen to paper. In August of 2025, Roman Anthony inked an eight-year pact. Also in August, Aroldis Chapman secured a much more modest extension, adding an extra guaranteed year before he hit free agency.
Abreu was approached around the same time as Bello and Rafaela. At that time, Abreu had just 28 games under his belt. Star prospects can get huge contracts even with less than a year of service time. Anthony got a $130MM guarantee, for instance. Julio Rodríguez got $210MM from the Mariners. Wander Franco and Corbin Carroll also got into nine-figure territory.
But Abreu wasn’t quite ranked as high as those guys, so he wouldn’t have received an offer in that tier. He probably would have been closer to Rafaela, who got $49.3MM in new money. Campbell got about $59.2MM in new money a year later. Samuel Basallo got $67MM from the Orioles and Michael Harris II $72MM from Atlanta.
It’s unknown what the Sox offered. Whatever it was, Abreu decided to bet on himself instead. Since then, he has put together two solid seasons. He got into 247 games over the past two campaigns, hitting 37 home runs and stealing 14 bases. His combined .250/.320/.464 batting line translated to a 113 wRC+, indicating he was 13% better than league average. Add in some strong defensive grades and FanGraphs considered him to be worth 5.5 wins above replacement over those two seasons.
He has provided that value despite being mostly a strong-side platoon guy, with a career .205/.271/.318 line against lefty pitchers. The Sox have indicated they hope to give him more run against southpaws this year. Healey writes that Abreu spent the offseason working on getting better against lefties, in addition to getting into the best shape of his life. Time will tell if Abreu can unlock a new gear but he’s already proven to be valuable.
That hasn’t led to big earnings yet. His service time is just a bit north of two years, meaning he won’t qualify for arbitration until after the 2026 season. He’ll be slated for three arb seasons and is on pace for free agency after 2029. As players approach the open market, they generally gain more earning power, and that could be extra true for Abreu if he takes his performance to another level. The two sides could reignite extension talks but there doesn’t seem to be much smoke there. “I can listen,” Abreu said of the prospect of the Sox trying again, “but I haven’t talked to them.”
Another guy the Sox tried to extend a couple of years ago was first baseman Triston Casas, though nothing got done at that time either. Since then, he has effectively been on the opposite trajectory to Abreu, as he has struggled greatly in the past few years. Back in 2023, he seemed to establish himself as a legit threat, hitting 24 home runs and slashing .263/.367/.490 for a 131 wRC+. Torn cartilage in his ribcage limited him to 63 games in 2024. He got out to an awful start in 2025, hitting .182/.277/.303, before rupturing the patellar tendon in his left knee in May. He was on the injured list for the rest of the year and still isn’t 100%.
Casas spoke to Chris Cotillo of MassLive about the past extension talks, clearly putting his focus on the future. “I don’t have any regrets about the way that I handled the situation,” Casas said. “In the moments that I was not agreeing to anything long-term, I felt like I could take the field and post an .850 OPS rolling out of bed. I was just that confident, and I still think I am that type of player. I didn’t think that ’23 reflected my best baseball, and it was still great. Now, I feel like my best baseball is still ahead of me.”
Despite his talents, the Sox clearly felt they couldn’t rely on Casas after a couple of injury-marred years and with his status still questionable going into 2026. They acquired Willson Contreras this winter to cover first base.
That leaves Casas in a bit of an awkward spot now, as he’s getting healthy but may not have a spot when he’s ready. He’s still not playing in games but tells Cotillo he could be doing so by Opening Day “for some affiliate,” seemingly suggesting he could be on a minor league rehab assignment when the rest of the team starts the regular season. The designated hitter spot is pretty clogged at the moment, with the Red Sox having to find playing time for their outfield group, which consists of Abreu, Anthony, Rafaela, Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida.
Casas does have options and could be kept in the minors after his rehab is done, though that would arguably be a waste of his talents, considering how he has already shown himself capable of being a middle-of-the-order hitter in the big leagues. A trade would make some sense but perhaps the Sox don’t want to sell low on Casas. A few injuries could change the calculus but it will be interesting to see how the Sox navigate the apparent logjam in the coming weeks and months.
Infielder Brendan Rodgers is in camp on a minor league deal and looking to earn a roster spot but he departed today’s game with right shoulder pain. “It’s pretty sore right now,” Rodgers said to Christopher Smith of MassLive. “All the (strength) tests were actually promising. … So just trying to be optimistic and, see how we feel tomorrow.” Rodgers says he’s not scheduled to go for any imaging tonight. He underwent surgery on that shoulder back in 2019. He dislocated his left shoulder in 2023.
Rodgers is a tough fit for a bench infielder job. He’s been a subpar hitter throughout his career. He has often received strong defensive grades but hasn’t played a position other than second base since 2021. Teams generally need their bench infielders to provide more versatility than that. Even with the Romy González injury, the Sox have Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Andruw Monasterio, Anthony Seigler, Nate Eaton, Nick Sogard and Tsung-Che Cheng as healthy infielders on the roster.
Photo courtesy of Raymond Carlin III, Imagn Images
Poll: Who Will Be The Odd Man Out In The Reds’ Lineup?
The Reds were perhaps the most surprising playoff club of the 2025 season, as they managed to squeak into the third NL Wild Card spot with an 83-79 record. That return to the postseason came to an abrupt end when they were dispatched by the eventual World Champion Dodgers in the Wild Card round, but that didn’t stop them from making some upgrades to the team this winter. The return of veteran slugger Eugenio Suarez is surely the most impactful addition of the team’s offseason, but it also creates a bit of a logjam within the roster for their existing players. While Suarez is an impactful offensive addition coming off a 49-homer campaign, he’ll surely cut into the playing time of one of the club’s other regulars. That’s especially true given the addition of JJ Bleday to the club’s outfield mix, which effectively replaced the traded Gavin Lux on the roster.
While a reduction in playing time for the rest of the roster is inevitable, the Reds have enough positional flexibility on their roster that exactly how playing time will be divvied up remains an open question. With so many potential lineup configurations, who will end up getting the short end of the stick? There’s a few obvious players who won’t be losing playing time this year. Tyler Stephenson and Jose Trevino are more or less locked in as the club’s catching tandem. Shortstop Elly De La Cruz is a star and will surely be in the lineup every day as long as he’s healthy. TJ Friedl projects as the regular center fielder, and Suarez himself is sure to play everyday as long as he’s healthy.
For virtually every other player on the roster, however, it’s not impossible to imagine them getting squeezed out. Spencer Steer is perhaps the most established player among the rest of the roster, but even he doesn’t seem to be guaranteed everyday at-bats. That’s in part because he’s without a position. While he was a strong defensive first baseman for the Reds last year, his 97 wRC+ isn’t exactly the sort of impact one expects from that spot in the lineup. That could leave Steer handling any number of positions, as he’s at least passable when playing each of second base, third base, and the outfield corners in addition to first base and DH. That leaves the players at each of those positions (aside from Suarez) with a capable, if unspectacular player breathing down their necks in the hunt for playing time.
At first base, the Reds currently figure to utilize Sal Stewart. A consensus top prospect entering 2026, the rookie got an 18-game cup of coffee in the majors down the stretch last year and did everything one could’ve hoped for with the opportunity. He slashed .255/.293/.545 with five homers and a double in just 58 trips to the plate while managing to keep his strikeout rate at a reasonable 25.9%. He also succeeded when the lights were brightest, going 2-for-4 with a walk and four RBI against Los Angeles in the playoffs while the rest of the team struggled to produce. That’s enough that it should earn him a starting job, and he’s spent plenty of time at third and even second base in addition to first, offering some potential flexibility regarding where he’ll play. With that, said, if the rookie struggles at some point this year it wouldn’t be a shock to see him sent down to Triple-A, where the Reds could garner another year of team control over Stewart if he stays in the minors long enough.
While Stewart’s service time considerations could make Cincinnati a bit more willing to pull him out of the lineup than the rest of their players, that doesn’t mean the others are safe in their playing time. Ke’Bryan Hayes was the team’s most notable deadline addition last year, and his elite glove should mean that the Reds’ pitchers are consistently rooting for him to be in the lineup at third base on a regular basis. With that being said, Hayes is undoubtedly the weakest offensive player on the roster. While he flashed upside earlier in his career with the Pirates, he also hit just .235/.290/.306 (65 wRC+) last year after posting a 60 wRC+ the year prior. If Hayes can’t get his offensive production back into the 90 wRC+ range it sat in from 2021-2023, then it could be hard for the team to justify playing him regularly unless the rest of the lineup is mashing.
Hayes’s offensive woes also apply, at least to some extent, to Matt McLain. McLain appeared in 147 games last year after missing the entire 2024 season due to injury, and his results left a lot to be desired. He hit just .220/.300/.343 with a wRC+ of 77. While he turned in a solid 9.5% walk rate to save his overall slash line somewhat, the combination of a 28.5% strikeout rate and a .124 ISO simply isn’t going to cut it if he wants to be even an average big league hitter. McLain is a former top prospect who showed substantial upside in 2023 with a 129 wRC+ in 89 games, but his leash could wind up being somewhat short if he struggles, given that several other players on the team are capable of handling the keystone.
One such player is Noelvi Marte, who spent last season in right field but has been an infielder for most of his career. Marte had a disastrous 2024 season where he hit just .210/.248/.301 after returning from an 80-game PED suspension, but 2025 saw him take a step in the right direction as he posted a 101 wRC+ in 90 games despite losing two months to an oblique strain. Prior to that injury, Marte looked to be in the midst of a breakout, and while a brutal month of September put a damper on his overall season numbers, it’s not hard to see the 24-year-old taking another step forward this year. With that being said, a slump or two like the ones he suffered in 2024 and the second half of 2025 could conceivably leave Marte as the odd man out if the rest of the lineup is hitting.
One wild card with regards to playing time for the rest of the roster is Bleday. He’s more or less locked into the outfield corners defensively, and therefore can’t offer the sort of versatility virtually every other player here can. He’s also a questionable fit to be in the lineup against lefties, which inherently gives him a lower ceiling in terms of playing time than the rest of the roster. That might make him seem like the obvious pick to get the least playing time on the roster, but his lefty bat on a predominantly right-handed roster could prove extremely valuable. Additionally, Bleday is just one year removed from a solid season for the A’s where he posted a 120 wRC+ and 3.2 fWAR. Last year was tougher on him as he hit just .212/.294/.404, but if he can rediscover his 2024 form he could be one of the top hitters in the Reds’ entire lineup and earn a larger share of playing time than many of these players who have mostly shown league average or lower ability in recent years.
Who do you expect to ultimately draw the short end of the stick when it comes to playing time in Cincinnati this year? Will a young player like Stewart be sent down, or could someone like McLain or Marte struggle despite their former prospect pedigree? Will Hayes’s offense be too weak to justify his excellent defense, or will Bleday not hit enough to justify his middling outfield defense? Or, could the rest of the lineup work out so well that Steer finds himself in a utility role? Have your say in the poll below:
Which Reds player will get the fewest plate appearances in 2026?
Pirates, Konnor Griffin Open To Extension Talks
The baseball world is currently buzzing with excitement about Konnor Griffin. He hasn’t even hit his 20th birthday yet but is considered to be the top prospect in baseball and has a chance to break camp with the Pirates. Locking him up to a long-term deal is also a possibility, with Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reporting that both Griffin and the Bucs are open to an extension.
It’s not a surprising stance from the team. As mentioned, Griffin is the top prospect in baseball and there seems to be little debating it. Baseball America, ESPN, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs and The Athletic all have him in the top spot going into 2026. Some even consider him the best prospect in years. The ninth overall pick from 2024, he’s viewed as a rare five-tool monster. He’s a plus shortstop who was almost drafted as a pitcher, so the arm is clearly there.
Last year, he went from Single-A to High-A to Double-A, getting into 122 games overall. He hit 21 home runs and stole 65 bases. He slashed .333/.415/.527 on the year. He got some help from a .403 batting average on balls in play but everyone believes in the bat. It was reported in the offseason that the Bucs would consider carrying Griffin on the Opening Day roster this year even though he doesn’t turn 20 until late April and has no Triple-A experience. He added some more coal to the engine of the hype train when he hit two home runs against the Red Sox yesterday.
Not all prospects pan out but there are fewer busts the higher up the lists you go. Griffin seems to have a good chance to be a really good major league player for a long time. Players in this position are also often signed to extensions. In recent years, cornerstone players like Fernando Tatis Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Wander Franco, Jackson Merrill, Roman Anthony, Corbin Carroll, Ronald Acuña Jr. and others have signed big multi-year extensions.
From Griffin’s perspective, it’s notable that he’s open to the possibility but he and the club would have to agree on a price point. Turning down a nine-figure guarantee probably isn’t easy but the potential for big earnings is still there if he goes year to year.
Juan Soto is an extreme example of the upside. The Nationals made Soto multiple nine-figure extension offers, reportedly getting as high as $440MM in 2022, but Soto made a bet on himself. That paid off as he made $79.6MM during his four arbitration seasons and then hit free agency as a 26-year old. That youth helped him secure a $765MM deal from the Mets.
That path is theoretically open to Griffin. As mentioned, he’s still about two months away from his 20th birthday. If he is able to earn a full service time this year, he could hit free agency after 2031, a few months ahead of his 26th birthday. Even if it’s too much to expect him to be as good as Soto at the plate, Griffin seems likely to add more value via his speed and defense.
As mentioned by Hiles, it’s possible for the Bucs and Griffin to sign some kind of deal that gives the club some extra years of control but still allows him to hit free agency in his late 20s. Griffin may be open to that but he would be leaving some upside on the table, as teams clearly value that youth. In addition to the Soto example, there’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He got $325MM, the largest deal for a pure pitcher ever, even though he no major league experience yet. A major factor was the fact that he was 25 years old when he was coming over from Japan.
Perhaps there’s some way to get creative and have Griffin lock in big earnings while still preserving future earning potential. Witt’s deal with the Royals is for 11 years but he can opt out after seven. The pact between Rodríguez and the Mariners is technically a 12-year guarantee but with a very complicated structure involving multiple options and escalators starting after the sixth full year.
Whether creative structures are involved or not, the price is likely to rise over time, as players generally have more earning power as they move towards free agency. Jackson Chourio has the record guarantee for a player who hasn’t yet debuted, getting eight years and $82MM from the Brewers. Even a brief major league debut is enough for a big jump, with many of the aforementioned names getting their nine-figure deals with less than a year of big league experience. Rodríguez got the top guarantee for guys under one year of service, getting to $210MM. After two years in the big leagues, Tatis got $340MM and Witt $288.8MM.
The Pirates would likely have to go into franchise-record territory to get something done. The biggest guarantee they’ve given out was their $100MM deal for Bryan Reynolds a few years back. Griffin has more prospect hype than Chourio did a few years ago when he signed his extension with Milwaukee, so it’s arguable that Griffin could warrant a nine-figure guarantee right now.
The Bucs generally don’t run up huge payrolls but should be able to get something done if they want to, as the long-term books are fairly clean. The Reynolds deal goes through 2030 but with a $14MM salary this year and $15MM in each of the next four campaigns. That’s a decent chunk of change but fairly manageable in the context of modern baseball salaries. The Mitch Keller deal only goes through 2028. Ryan O’Hearn is the only other guy with a guaranteed deal for 2027. Even though the Bucs are a fairly low-spending club, similar teams have gotten these deals done, with the Rays signing Franco and the Royals signing Witt.
If the Bucs and Griffin are able to work something out in the next few weeks, the team would be incentivized to not make it official until after Opening Day. Strangely, the prospect promotion incentive doesn’t apply to players who have already signed long-term extensions, so Chourio wasn’t PPI eligible for the Brewers. It is perhaps not a coincidence that Kristian Campbell and Samuel Basallo signed extensions a few days after their respective major league promotions last year, therefore keeping the PPI on the table. Campbell’s PPI eligibility was later nullified because he was optioned to the minors and didn’t earn a full year of service in 2025.
Time will tell if the two sides can work out a deal or not. Contract status aside, Griffin’s ascent is adding excitement for the Pirates in 2026. There was already a lot of talent on the pitching staff, led by Paul Skenes. The offense has been lacking but they added O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe and Marcell Ozuna in the offseason. If Griffin can come up, take over the shortstop job and succeed, that could be another boon for the lineup. It can be dangerous putting too many expectations on such a young player but the industry is unanimous in considering Griffin special.
Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images