MLBTR Poll: Will Stephen Strasburg Opt Out?
Three games into the Washington Nationals 2019 postseason and Stephen Strasburg has already played the part of hero twice. In the other game, the Nats lost. Last night’s mastery spun 6 innings of 3-hit ball with 10 strikeouts to zero walks as he took the win at Dodger Stadium. His brilliance in the 2017 NLDS against the Cubs is largely forgotten since they didn’t advance, but it does add to the mounting pile of evidence suggesting Strasburg is indeed one of the game’s best big game pitchers.
Strasburg has a decision looming whenever the magic of the Nationals 2019 postseason runs dry. He has an opt-out clause in his contract that he could exercise to become a free agent this winter. Given the depressed market of recent offseasons, the possibility that Stras would opt-out seemed far-fetched not too long ago. That’s no longer the case. After completing perhaps the healthiest season of his career, one in which he could finish as high as second in Cy Young voting, one in which he registered league-leading marks in wins (18) and innings (209), as well as notching a career-high 251 strikeouts, Strasburg’s opt-out is more certain now than ever.
His agent, Scott Boras, is sure to make that pitch, though he has thus far refrained from speaking specifically about Strasburg’s intentions. He is, however, laying the groundwork for potential free agency by declaring stud starters such as Strasburg immune to any downturns in the market, per Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. With four-years and $100MM remaining on his contract already, he won’t exactly be hard-up for cash either way. Strasburg, 31, is also the rarest of Boras client – one who signed before reaching the open market.
If he doesn’t opt-out, his deal would expire after his 35th birthday. Strasburg could view this winter as his last opportunity to lock-in a major payday for his elder years. Zack Greinke signed his six-year, $206.5MM deal at a similar point in his career – after a career season in which he turned 31-years-old and finished second in Cy Young voting. In raw totals, Greinke’s 9.1 bWAR 2015 with the Dodgers eclipses Strasburg’s 6.3 bWAR 2019 by a decent margin, and Greinke’s overall track record was a tad more impressive at the time. He had been worth 48.9 bWAR to that point in his career versus 32.6 bWAR for Strasburg now. Even if you attribute the difference largely to durability (323 GS, 2094 2/3 innings for Greinke post-2015, 239 GS, 1438 2/3 innings for Strasburg post-2019), that’s hardly an insignificant attribution in contract negotiation.
A similar contract would more than double Strasburg’s guaranteed money while only tacking on two additional years. From the team perspective, it’s hard to fault the Diamondbacks for the deal now, as despite the whopping gross total, Greinke did deliver 16.4 bWAR across 3+ seasons, a playoff appearance, utility player Josh Rojas and their #4, #11 and #12 prospects as ranked by MLB.com.
Jake Arrieta signed a free agent contract when the Phillies inked him to a 3-year, $75MM deal the same week he turned 32. Arrieta had an even more uneven history than Strasburg, with 20.2 bWAR earned at the point of his free agency and a chasm of difference between the glory years in Chicago and his humble beginnings in Baltimore. This also feels less comparable to Strasburg as – despite being close to the same age at the time of free agency – Arrieta appeared headed for the downswing of his career. Strasburg is just now coming into his own, as written about here by Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.
That same offseason, Yu Darvish signed his 6-year, $126MM deal with the Cubs in the winter of his 31st year. Darvish was coming off a 4.0 bWAR season split between Texas and Los Angeles, though a pair of disastrous World Series outings certainly colored the narrative of his free agency.
Regardless, Strasburg, Scott Boras, and the Nationals will have a lot to talk about this winter. If Strasburg can further grow his October legend, Boras may be right about his value transcending that of the market. Not to mention, Strasburg’s hometown of San Diego has a team on the rise, money to spend, and a gigantic ballpark with which to lure Strasburg home. In terms of competition, he’d be the clear-cut second-best starting pitching option on the free agent market after Gerrit Cole. You tell me: what comes next in the Strasburg saga?
(Poll link for app users)
Will Stephen Strasburg Opt-Out After 2019?
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Yes. 53% (4,211)
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Yes, but only to negotiate an extension with the Nats. 28% (2,236)
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No. 19% (1,540)
Total votes: 7,987
Joe Girardi Doing His Due Diligence On Mets
Joe Girardi does his homework. Whether he’s the right man to lead the New York Mets in the wake of Mickey Callaway’s firing will ultimately be decided by GM Brodie Van Wagenen and COO Jeff Wilpon, but one thing is for certain, Girardi will do his due diligence before officially throwing his hat in the ring.
Girardi began doing his research on the Mets a couple of weeks before Callaway was let go, per Mike Puma of the New York Post. His ability to co-exist with the front office was one of the driving factors of his dismissal as the manager of the New York Yankees, despite having managed them to a title in 2009. If he does return to the bench, whether that be in New York, Chicago, or elsewhere, the foundations of a solid working relationship with upper management will be an important box to check.
The Mets are investigating all of the big names out there on the open market, with Dusty Baker, Joe Maddon, and Buck Showalter surfacing alongside Girardi. Former players like David Cone and Carlos Beltran have also been linked with the position, though we’ve yet to reach the stage of real legitimacy in this search process. Remember, there are no bad ideas in brainstorming.
There are bad hiring decisions, however, and as he enters his second season on the job, this could be Van Wagenen’s one chance to find the right field manager. The Mets have a tall task ahead of them considering the relatively crowded field of contenders in the NL East. The Braves aren’t going anywhere, the Nationals have some free agency questions to answer, but they could very well return as good or better than they were in 2019, and Bryce Harper and the Phillies will enter 2020 with an increased level of urgency after fading in the second half.
Even the Marlins are building towards a future of some significance, though they remain a year or two away. Seeing Girardi helm the Mets for 19 games a season against Derek Jeter‘s Marlins would certainly provide interesting opportunities for repartee between former colleagues. Furthering the fun, Miami manager Don Mattingly was under consideration for manager of the Yankees when the role ultimately went to Girardi.
It’s worth wondering whether Girardi’s straight-shooter style is too similar to the recently-departed Callaway, though Girardi’s open communication is perhaps a touch more sophisticated than Callaway, who famously lost his temper with a reporter while the team was in a skid. It’s clear Girardi wants to return to the dugout, and if there’s a spot for him, the Mets or Cubs seem like the most obvious landing spots due to his obvious connections to New York and Chicago, respectively.
Victor Robles Tweaks Hamstring
The Nationals hung on for a 4-2 win over the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLDS on Friday, but they may have suffered a major loss in the process. Center fielder Victor Robles departed after laying down a sacrifice bunt in the top of the eighth inning. He’s dealing with a tweaked hamstring and is day-to-day at the moment, Jamal Collier of MLB.com tweets.
The severity of Robles’ injury isn’t clear yet, but the Nationals know all too well that a hamstring tweak can lead to a long absence. Reliever Roenis Elias received the same diagnosis a month ago and hasn’t pitched since. If Robles’ issue is similarly severe, he might not play again in 2019.
An elite prospect during his days in Washington’s farm system, Robles has emerged as a strong contributor during his first full MLB campaign, evidenced by his 2.5 fWAR in 617 plate appearances. Robles didn’t show off Juan Soto-esque dominance with the bat in the regular season, when he hit .255/.326/.419 with 17 home runs, though he did swipe 28 bases and perform brilliantly as a defender. He led all MLB outfielders in DRS (24) and finished eighth in UZR (7.0).
When Robles exited Friday, Washington replaced him with Michael A. Taylor – a lesser hitter than Robles who also brings speed and defense to the table. Taylor and Gerardo Parra joined Robles as the only members of the club who garnered starts in center in the regular season. Parra’s also on the Nats’ five-outfielder NLDS roster, and if the team wants to keep that setup intact in the event Robles misses time, it could call on Andrew Stevenson as a replacement.
Latest On Giants’ Managerial Opening
Before the Athletics’ season ended earlier this week, quality control coach Mark Kotsay made it known he’d be interested in managing a major league club in 2020. A few days later, at least one team is showing significant interest in Kotsay. He’s “a strong candidate” for the Bay Area rival Giants, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
Based on Heyman’s report, it seems Kotsay will be one of the six to eight external managerial candidates Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi interviews as he seeks a successor to outgoing potential Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy. The Giants have also been linked to former major league outfielder and current Dodgers special assistant Raul Ibanez, who’s believed to be close to the top of Zaidi’s list, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports California writes.
Like Ibanez, Kotsay’s an ex-MLB outfielder with no managerial experience. But while Ibanez has no coaching experience in the bigs, the 43-year-old Kotsay has filled multiple roles on staffs since his playing career ended in 2013. Kotsay worked as a hitting coach with the Padres prior to joining the Athletics ahead of the 2016 season. He served as the A’s bench coach that year before eventually shifting to his current role in advance of the ’18 campaign.
Padres Could Pursue Joe Maddon
The Angels look like the front-runners to land coveted free-agent manager Joe Maddon, but the Padres are also considering a pursuit of the 65-year-old. They’re “doing background work on” Maddon, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.
The well-respected Maddon, who has enjoyed outstanding runs atop the Rays and Cubs, looks like a logical target for the Padres on paper. The club did just wrap up a dismal 70-92 season, its 13th straight year without a playoff berth. However, the Padres plan on finally pushing to contend in 2020, and they’d reportedly prefer an experienced manager to replace the fired Andy Green. Furthermore, executive chairman Ron Fowler spoke out in disgust this week over the Padres’ results this year, which seems to indicate they’ll be active this offseason as they seek a return to relevance.
Whether the Padres end up hiring Maddon, fellow potential candidate Brad Ausmus or someone else, that individual will be joining a franchise with at least a few enviable building blocks on hand. The left side of the Padres’ infield is in great shape with shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and third baseman Manny Machado, while right-hander Chris Paddack is coming off a tremendous rookie season. The Padres also continue to boast one of the majors’ most loaded farm systems. At the same time, though, there are quite a few roster needs to address for a team that has resided at the bottom of the MLB standings for far too long.
MLBTR Poll: Edwin Encarnacion’s Option
The Yankees continued their long-running October dominance of the Twins on Friday, earning a 10-4 victory en route to a 1-0 advantage in the teams’ American League Division Series matchup. Designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion factored into the Yankees’ blowout win, collecting two doubles and a run batted in across five at-bats. The accomplished Encarnacion obviously hopes to pick up his first World Series ring in the next few weeks, but no matter how the team’s season ends, the Yankees will soon face an interesting decision in regards to his future.
Encarnacion, whom the Yankees stunningly acquired from the Mariners back in June, slashed .249/.325/.531 with 13 home runs in 197 plate appearances after donning the pinstripes. Between the two teams, the 36-year-old concluded his regular season with a .244/.344/.531 line and 34 HRs over 456 trips to the plate. It’s all the more laudable that Encarnacion smacked 30-plus homers for the eighth straight year despite missing extended time with injuries (a fractured wrist and a strained oblique).
Youth isn’t on his side, but it’s clear Encarnacion is still a formidable presence at the plate. Nevertheless, he’s far from a lock to remain with the Yankees in 2020. They do control Encarnacion through next season, though retaining him would be costly. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman will have to choose whether to exercise Encarnacion’s $20MM club option or buy him out for $5MM. For all we know, Encarnacion will go on a postseason rampage in the next few weeks, but that doesn’t mean it’ll influence Cashman’s thinking. He did, after all, allow aging stars Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon to walk in free agency after the franchise’s most recent World Series title in 2009. Even Matsui’s MVP honors in the Fall Classic weren’t enough for the Yankees to re-sign him.
New York certainly has the financial might to keep Encarnacion around, but it also possesses several in-house options who could fill the DH role in a year. First basemen Luke Voit and Mike Ford figure to stay in the fold at league-minimum sums, while anyone in the Yankees’ outfield surplus could also see a fair amount of time at the spot. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks seem likely to return as the club’s top three outfielders in 2020, but Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman might also figure prominently into its plans. And the Yankees may choose to re-sign pending free agent Brett Gardner, quietly one of the most productive outfielders in franchise history, to remain a member of a crowded alignment in the grass.
Beyond the Yankees’ group of outfielders, let’s not forget about the presence of third baseman Miguel Andujar, who may be best served as a DH. Andujar thrived at the plate as a rookie in 2018 before missing almost all of this season because of a shoulder injury, but he was often maligned for his defense at the hot corner last year. With the emergence of low-cost replacement Gio Urshela at third this season, the Yankees could envision plenty of DH at-bats for Andujar in 2020.
Aside from Judge and Stanton, nobody from the abovementioned collection of names packs the punch Encarnacion does. However, the Yankees wouldn’t be unrealistic in expecting quality offensive production from any of them, and letting Encarnacion go would open up spending room elsewhere (Astros co-ace/potential $200MM free agent Gerrit Cole looks like a fit on paper, for example). As of now, what do you expect to happen with Encarnacion in the offseason?
(Poll link for app users)
Predict Edwin Encarnacion's Future
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The Yankees will buy him out 72% (5,005)
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The Yankees will exercise his option 28% (1,949)
Total votes: 6,954
Three Needs: San Diego Padres
We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. Let’s check in on the Padres, who desperately need to make some tangible gains in the standings after finishing in the cellar for the third time in four years. This offseason will require a delicate balancing act, and a thoughtful reallocation of resources, but there are paths to contention.
[San Diego Padres Depth Chart]
1. Trade Kirby Yates … For A Big League Asset
The Padres aren’t fully in win-now position. Yet they possess a high-end closer who’s entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. They shouldn’t give away Yates unless there’s fair value coming back. And they ought not go searching for far-away, high-ceiling prospects at this stage of their rebuild.
But that doesn’t mean Yates shouldn’t be marketed. It’s worthy considering extension talks as well, a la Brad Hand, but Yates is already 32 years of age and just one season away from the open market. He’s already sure to pick up a big arbitration raise. That could make it hard to get a true bargain.
Instead, the best option may be to dangle Yates — who will be of keen interest to any number of clear contenders — in a search for a quality, MLB-ready position player or starting pitcher. The bottom line is that the the organization has a really nice asset that can be turned into another really nice asset that better suits its needs. That may be tough to pull off. But think a bit more creatively and you’ll start to see avenues. The Friars’ last big swap was a three-team affair, so that’s always a possibility. Perhaps the Pads can take on salary as part of the arrangement, possibly helping big-market teams trying to stay under the luxury tax line. And attaching some other prospect pieces would help boost the value … while also helping with another notable need …
2. End The Prospect Trials
It’s great to have lots of prospects, even when many of them are pressing for the bigs at about the same time. And perhaps it was sensible to rotate many of them through the majors in recent years, when the club wasn’t likely to contend and it was useful both to give them a taste and get a look. But the Padres can’t just keep trying things on; it’s time they pick an outfit and wear it with confidence.
The constant up-and-down, mix-and-match approach has begun moving towards a conclusion. The big summer swap resulted in the departures of Franmil Reyes and Logan Allen, two youthful players that were part of the churn. For better or worse, the Padres have made sizable commitments to some players (Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers). And emergent superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. is now ensconced at shortstop. The rotation seems to be coming into focus, with Chris Paddack joining Tatis as a potential centerpiece (and extension candidate).
In some ways, the difference here is subtle. It’s not just about how many plate appearances everyone gets — though, notably, a dozen players got more than 200 in 2019 while only two topped 500. That isn’t inherently concerning. It’s just a question of role and purpose. If the Friars want to set up a platoon, then do it. But shuffling through guys for a look and to see who sticks? It’s hard to do that and win. The focus must be on installing pieces that can, when deployed as intended, allow this team to top .500 for the first time since 2010. If they’re lacking, then they must be found, unless another losing campaign is deemed acceptable.
3. Work The Middle Market In Free Agency
Since taking over the San Diego front office in the fall of 2014, GM A.J. Preller has given out three whopping contracts that promised over $500MM in total. Otherwise, he has only twice gone over $4.5MM in a free agent deal: $8MM to Ian Kinsler and $18MM for Garrett Richards.
To an extent, you appreciate the concept of pursuing elite talent and filling in the gaps for cheap. But the broader market does offer some relatively low-risk, sometimes reasonably high-upside opportunities as well. For a team that needs to make rather significant strides just to get into the Wild Card picture — it’s tough to imagine the Dodgers being reeled in — there’s good cause to explore that segment.
Petco Park played very small this year. Perhaps that’ll make it easier to draw solid relief pitchers without having to promise them a worrisome number of years. There’s a good number of interesting, relatively youthful outfielders available, along with some veteran catching. It’d be much easier to take on a few reasonably hefty salaries now had it not been for the questionable decision to sign Hosmer, but the Friars can still plug in a few pieces without hamstringing future payroll too badly — at least, that is, if ownership is willing to approve a move past the $100MM mark in Opening Day payroll for the first time since the club snuck across that line in 2015.
Buck Showalter Interested In Managing Mets
The Mets, currently on the heels of their third straight non-playoff season, are on the hunt for a new manager. In what could be fortunate news for the club, one of the most respected skippers of the past couple decades, Buck Showalter, has interest in the job.
In regards to the position, Showalter told Steve Somers of WFAN: “Yeah, I’d like to be talked about it, but I’m not going to campaign about it, and I’m real uncomfortable even talking about it with you now because there’s a lot of good people out there and they’re going to make a good decision. They’ll have reasons why and why not, and, you know, I respect that.”
The 63-year-old Showalter would give the Mets a proven manager, which is something they didn’t have in the just-fired Mickey Callaway, who came with no experience in the role when they hired him. Showalter has guided the Yankees, Diamondbacks, Rangers and Orioles for a combined 20 years, amassing a 1,551-1,517 regular-season record with five playoff berths and three Manager of the Year awards. He sat out this season after the Orioles, who were in the incipient stages of a full rebuild, ousted him in the wake of a 47-win showing in 2018.
The O’s were blowing it up when they got rid of Showalter, whereas the Mets are trying to ascend as quickly as possible. The team rebounded from a horrendous start this year to finish with 86 wins in 2019, though that wasn’t enough to save Callaway. Now, after turning to the neophyte Callaway in its previous managerial search two years ago, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Mets opt for an experienced hand to steer the ship this time. As of now, though, there’s no word on whether general manager Brodie Van Wagenen & Co. are interested in speaking with Showalter.
Each NL Playoff Team’s Most Valuable Signing Of Last Offseason
This is the second in a two-part series examining each playoff team’s most valuable free-agent signing of last offseason. We previously took a look at the American League, whose playoff qualifiers probably received more regular-season bang for their buck from their top signings than the NL’s five best teams did.
Dodgers: A.J. Pollock, OF (four years, $60MM)
- We’ll start with a debatable case. The uber-rich Dodgers signed just two players to guaranteed deals last winter, when they landed Pollock and reliever Joe Kelly, and neither lived up to expectations during the regular season. But Pollock was probably the better of the two, as the ex-Diamondback hit .266/.327/.468 with 15 home runs in 342 plate appearances during yet another injury-limited campaign. Those are solid offensive numbers, though Pollock did have a rough time in the outfield, where the normally plus defender totaled minus-10 DRS and a minus-7.2 UZR. Although he and Kelly haven’t exactly thrived this year, it hasn’t stopped juggernaut LA from logging the NL’s top record or a 1-0 lead in its NLDS matchup against Washington
Braves: Josh Donaldson, 3B (one year, $23MM)
- Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos elected to reunite with Donaldson, whom he know from their Toronto days, on a high-cost, short-term contract last offseason. Now, it’s fair to say Donaldson’s one of the main reasons the Braves won their division for the second year in a row. The 33-year-old recovered from two consecutive injury-marred seasons to hit .259/.379/.521 with 37 homers and 4.9 fWAR across 659 PA. As one of the top soon-to-be free agents in the game, Donaldson could leave Atlanta in the coming weeks via the open market (this time for far more money).
Cardinals: Andrew Miller, LHP (two years, $25MM)
- The 34-year-old Miller wins this honor by default – he was the lone player the Cardinals added on a major league contract during the offseason, and none of their minors signings stood out at the MLB level. Miller wasn’t exactly stellar in his own right, though, as the former bullpen force mustered an unattractive 4.45 ERA/5.19 FIP in 54 2/3 innings. While Miller continued to fan hitters at a high rate, striking out 11.52 per nine, he somewhat offset that figure with his highest BB/9 (4.45) since 2013. Miller was also susceptible to the home run ball during the regular season, when he yielded a personal-worst 1.81 per nine, perhaps thanks in part to his lowest average fastball velocity in years (92.5 mph).
Nationals: Patrick Corbin, LHP (six years, $140MM)
- Aside from the much-ballyhooed Bryce Harper–Manny Machado duo, no player received a bigger contract last offseason than Corbin. The ex-Diamondback enjoyed a career year in 2018, thus making a case for a massive payday, and he hasn’t disappointed since the Nationals gave him one. Corbin, 30, is fresh off an eminently successful regular season in which he recorded a 3.25 ERA/3.49 FIP with 10.6 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, a 49.5 percent groundball rate and 4.8 fWAR across 202 innings. He turned in another effective performance in Game 1 of the NLDS for the Nationals, holding the Dodgers to three hits and two runs (one earned) over six frames, though the Nats went on to lose.
Brewers: Yasmani Grandal, C (one year, $18.25MM)
- Grandal, who starred with the Dodgers from 2015-18, fell into the Brewers’ laps last January after rejecting a far more lucrative offer from the Mets. It proved to be a major break for the Brewers, with whom Grandal posted yet another strong regular season. The 30-year-old switch-hitter slashed .246/.380/.468 with 5.2 fWAR and a career-high 28 home runs in 632 PA. At the same time, Grandal continued his long run as one of the game’s most well-regarded defensive backstops. Unfortunately for the Brewers, whom the Nats eliminated in the wild-card round, it seems likely Grandal’s days in their uniform are over. He figures to turn down his half of a $16MM mutual option for 2020 in favor of another stab at free agency, where he’ll easily rank as the most coveted catcher available. If a bidding war for Grandal’s services occurs, the Brewers probably aren’t going to win it.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Nelson Cruz Hopes Twins Pick Up 2020 Option
Chatting before tonight’s ALDS opener, Twins slugger Nelson Cruz made clear that he’s hoping to stay in Minnesota for at least one more season. MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park was among those covering the interview (video via Twitter).
Cruz’s contract paid him fourteen million well-earned dollars this year. It also came with a $12MM club option. The team would owe just $300K if it declines to pay that sum for Cruz’s age-39 campaign.
“I want to be back,” says Cruz. “I don’t have that call, but hopefully they can pick up the option. The future looks really bright for us so I want to be part of a winning team for many years.”
Cruz likely won’t need to twist any arms in the Minnesota front office to achieve his desired end. He just homered in tonight’s game and launched 41 long balls over 521 plate appearances. With a monster .311/.392/.639 batting line on the year, Cruz topped all but three hitters leaguewide with a 163 wRC+.
If anything, Cruz’s immense output and affordable option serve to highlight what a bargain his contract seemed at the time. Even with the anticipation of another tepid market for defensively limited sluggers, MLBTR predicted a two-year, $30MM pact. He’d figure to have as much or more earning power this winter, making it quite likely the option will be picked up without much second thought.