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Rockies Expect Seunghwan Oh To Remain In Colorado For 2019

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Recent comments from right-handed reliever Seunghwan Oh seemingly indicated he was contemplating a return to his native Korea for the 2019 season, despite being under contract with the Rockies after his option vested. The Colorado organization, though, anticipates that Oh will remain with the club, general manager Jeff Bridich tells reporters including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post.

“Our understanding is that he has every intention of honoring his contract,” said Bridich. He explains that Oh’s camp informed him that the righty’s “comments to the Korean media were not specifically about 2019,” so much as a general preference to pitch again in the KBO before wrapping up his playing career.

Certainly, that news comes as a relief for the Rox, who stand to control Oh for a reasonable $2.5MM salary. The 36-year-old thrived both before and after a mid-season trade sent him to Colorado from the Blue Jays. He ended the season with a 2.63 ERA over 68 1/3 innings, with a healthy combination of 79 strikeouts and 17 walks.

Despite exhibiting a velocity loss of a full tick on his average fastball, Oh managed to post a strong 14.7% swinging-strike rate. He increased the usage of a fourth pitch (a curve) that he used at the expense of his somewhat diminished heater.

Obviously, it’s always a good thing to have a useful ballplayer under contract at a price that lags his value. And there’s little question that Oh would earn more in free agency were he to return to the open market this fall.

But the need is even more acute for a Rockies organization that has poured money into its bullpen without achieving the desired results. Since the 2015-16 winter, the club has signed Wade Davis ($52MM total guarantee), Jake McGee ($27MM), Bryan Shaw ($27MM), Mike Dunn ($19MM), Greg Holland ($7MM guarantee, $14MM ultimate salary owing to incentives), Jason Motte ($10MM), and Chad Qualls ($6MM).

Overall, there’s little question that the club has not received the output it hoped for from this group. Several players — Davis, McGee, Shaw, and Dunn — remain under contract. While a bounceback or two may still not be too much to ask for, it’s critical that the organization get some cost-efficient, quality pieces in the mix. That’s particularly true given that the organization is already sitting with nearly as much cash on the books (around $130MM with arbitration eligibles included at their projected value) as it did to start the 2018 season (a club record of about $136MM).

Giants Outright Five Players

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The Giants have outrighted five players off of their 40-man roster, the club announced and Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was among those to cover (Twitter links). The moves opened space for a handful of players to be moved back onto the roster from the 60-day DL.

Four of the players to be bumped — infielder Chase d’Arnaud, righty Casey Kelly, utilityman Kelby Tomlinson, and infielder Miguel Gomez — are now free agents. The former two had the right to reject an assignment, while the latter pair became eligible for minor-league free agency upon departing the MLB roster.

A fifth player, right-hander Tyler Herb, was also outrighted. In his case, though, he’ll remain in the San Francisco organization. He has been assigned to Triple-A Sacramento, which is where he spent most of the 2018 campaign.

Tomlinson, 28, had the lengthiest and most notable tenure with the Giants of the players outrighted today. He never quite matched his promising debut effort, however, ending his time in San Francisco with a .265/.331/.332 slash line over 687 plate appearances.

As for d’Arnaud, a light-hitting journeyman infielder, he’ll look for another opportunity to function as a depth piece. The 29-year-old Kelly, once a prospect of some note, allowed just eight earned runs in his 23 2/3 innings with the Giants but surrendered a 4.76 ERA over 24 Triple-A starts. Gomez has received scant MLB opportunity. He played mostly at the two highest levels of the minors in 2018, drawing just nine walks in 437 plate appearances while posting a .291/.304/.418 slash line.

D-Backs Announce Three-Year Deal With Eduardo Escobar

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The Diamondbacks have announced a new contract with infielder Eduardo Escobar, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic first reported (Twitter links). It’s said to be a three-year, $21MM pact. Escobar is a client of DJ Rengifo Y Associates LLC.

This news represents a fascinating turn of events just before the official onset of free agency. The 29-year-old, who was picked up in a mid-season swap with the Twins, had been slated to reach the open market for the first time.

Opting to wait for free agency would surely have given Escobar a shot at a somewhat bigger payday. After all, the switch-hitter just wrapped up a career year in which he slashed .272/.334/.489 with 23 home runs while thriving defensively at third base. MLBTR has yet to release its free agent predictions, but had initially contemplated a contract of three years and $30MM.

That said, things don’t always work out as hoped on the open market. There are several strong competitors in the third base market, and teams that like Escobar’s versatility will also be intrigued by Marwin Gonzalez.

For Escobar, his broader history is rather less enticing than his 2018 output standing alone. Over the past five seasons, he carries a .261/.312/.433 slash — good for an exactly league-average 100 OPS+. And though he has played all over the diamond, including at shortstop, he hasn’t always graded as a stellar defender up the middle and so may not be seen as much of an option there as he ages.

Doing this deal now, then, avoids some risks for both parties. Clearly, both sides liked the fit after only a few months together. And it’s not hard to see how the contract can suit team and player moving forward.

Really, the most interesting element of this decision is what it means for the Arizona organization. With the offseason approaching, it had seemed quite likely that the club would embark upon a rebuilding effort. While it’s certainly still possible that he Snakes will look to shift some assets with the future in mind, promising Escobar three years certainly isn’t something that a team would do before a full-blown teardown.

With Escobar on hand, it’s also fair to wonder just what the D-Backs plan to do with some other infielders. Jake Lamb will be looking to bounce back from a miserable and injury-riddled campaign, but keeping him will mean ponying up a projected $4.7MM. It remains to be seen what the club will do with Lamb, as well as fellow infielders Nick Ahmed ($3.1MM projection) and Chris Owings ($3.6MM). Ketel Marte is already under contract on a five-year, $24MM extension.

Today’s move leaves the Diamondbacks with plenty of options, particularly given Escobar’s versatility, so it’s hardly a fully committing decision. It also means that the organization has over $130MM in estimated payroll on the books, including its robust slate of arb-eligible players. This year, the Snakes opened with a club-record $131.5MM tab.

If the signing hints that the D-Backs will not blow things up entirely, it remains hard to imagine that the club will fully press down on the gas pedal. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explored, the organization could attempt to shave some salary obligations, hold onto its pre-MLB talent base, and try to remain as competitive as possible by overseeing a value-oriented winter. Getting Escobar at an appealing rate certainly seems to fit that mold, though the club’s precise course from this point forward remains to be seen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018-19 Market Snapshot: Right-Handed Relievers

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This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. We have now completed our run-down of position players and taken a look at the market for lefty relief help, which brings up the market for right-handed relievers.

Teams In Need

Frankly, there isn’t a team in baseball that won’t look at bolstering its relief corps this offseason. A few contending clubs do perhaps stand out more than others, as they’re set to lose high-leverage relievers to free agency. The Red Sox (Craig Kimbrel), Rockies (Adam Ottavino and possibly Seunghwan Oh), Indians (Cody Allen and Andrew Miller) and Athletics (Jeurys Familia) are all facing notable losses.

The Cubs will lose Jesse Chavez and could be extra-motivated to find help following an injury-shortened season for Brandon Morrow. The Cardinals will bid adieu to Bud Norris and didn’t get the help they expected out of Greg Holland, Luke Gregerson and Dominic Leone last winter. The Twins traded from their bullpen depth and have a largely uncertain mix of arms — especially following some injury troubles for Addison Reed.

Teams like the Brewers and Yankees have ultra-deep bullpens and may not consider it their top priority, but even those clubs will be exploring the market. Generally speaking, the increased use of relievers, the diminishing willingness to let starters face a lineup for a third time in a game, and the advent of “the opener” strategy (which will expand in 2019) all figure to make the market for relievers as robust as we’ve ever seen.

Free Agents

High-leverage arms: Craig Kimbrel has been among baseball’s premier relievers since 2010. If he can rediscover success in the World Series, perhaps reinforcing the idea that pitch-tipping was at fault in his struggles earlier this postseason, he could be in line for an enormous deal. Jeurys Familia will pitch next season at 29 and should command a fair bit of free-agent attention. Few, if any, free-agent relievers elevated their profile more in 2018 than Adam Ottavino. David Robertson will be 34 next season, but his consistency and durability may still put him in line for a three-year pact. Joakim Soria somewhat quietly posted a 75-to-16 K/BB ratio in 60 2/3 innings this season with a sub-3.00 marks in FIP and SIERA.

Rebound candidates: A year ago, Cody Allen and Greg Holland both looked like they could cash in on hefty multi-year deals upon reaching free agency. Each had a season to forget. Allen lost his closer’s role in Cleveland and struggled to keep his ERA south of 5.00 amid control and home run issues. Holland was released by the Cardinals after flopping as their closer, though he did turn things around in his late run with the Nationals. Brad Brach had similar struggles in Baltimore before enjoying a similar rebound following a trade to the Braves. Bud Norris finished with an identical 3.59 ERA to Brach but had an inverse season, starting strong before wilting down the stretch (for a second straight season). Zach McAllister, who posted a 2.99 ERA from 2015-17, never found his footing in 2018 as he struggled to an alarming 6.21 ERA despite maintained velocity.

Injury cases: Kelvin Herrera could’ve been viewed as one of the prizes of the market, but he floundered after a trade to the Nationals and ultimately saw his season end with a torn ligament in his foot. His stock is down from when he had a 1.05 ERA and 22-to-2 K/BB ratio upon being traded to the Nats. David Phelps and Trevor Rosenthal will be looking to return to the Majors after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Each was a quality late-inning arm prior to suffering the elbow tear. AJ Ramos hopes to bounce back from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. Tony Barnette was terrific when healthy but pitched just 26 1/3 innings due to shoulder troubles of his own. An oblique injury barely allowed Randall Delgado to pitch in 2018, but he was a quality middle reliever in 2017.

Middle relievers: Veterans Tyler Clippard, Jim Johnson, Shawn Kelley, Sergio Romo and Adam Warren all turned in solid or better results, with Romo willing to experiment in the “opener” role.

Wildcards: Jesse Chavez came out of nowhere to give the Cubs 39 innings of 1.15 ERA ball with a 42-to-5 K/BB ratio, but his prior track record hasn’t indicated that we should expect a repeat performance. Joe Kelly continued to be one of the game’s hardest-throwing relievers (98.1 mph average heater), but his results didn’t align with his potentially overpowering stuff. Perhaps some team will dream on the upside and give him a sizable payday despite a lack of consistent results.

Depth: John Axford, Chris Beck, Matt Belisle, Christian Bergman, Blaine Boyer, Santiago Casilla, Jeanmar Gomez, Javy Guerra, Chris Hatcher, Daniel Hudson, Drew Hutchison, George Kontos, Peter Moylan, Fernando Salas, Junichi Tazawa

Trade Targets

Controllable arms (three-plus seasons):  The rebuilding Orioles control hard-throwing Mychal Givens through 2021, and new front office leadership may not be as attached to him as the prior regime. Nate Jones’ contract has three affordable options, making him a logical piece for the White Sox to market, though he comes with a notable injury history. Marlins righty Drew Steckenrider was in high demand at the non-waiver deadline and is controlled all the way through 2023.

It’s far from certain that the D-backs would actually listen to offers on Archie Bradley, who has another three years of control remaining, but he’d command quite a haul and there’s been varying levels of speculation about an Arizona rebuild. Likewise, if the Rangers truly wanted to provide a jolt to their farm system, they could make 2018 breakout star Jose Leclerc available. He’s controlled through 2022, though, so even though Texas won’t compete next season, Leclerc could be around by the time things begin to look more favorable. Then again, the volatility of relievers makes it tough to view them as building blocks, and Leclerc’s value might never be higher.

Shorter-term adds (one to two seasons of control): Kirby Yates has been nails with the Padres, particularly since adopting a splitter prior to 2018, and he’s controlled affordably through 2020 via arbitration. Teammate Craig Stammen is a pure rental but was brilliant for the Friars in 2018 and has just a $2.25MM base salary for 2019. Yoshihisa Hirano proved to be a brilliant signing for the D-backs and is signed through next season at just $3MM. Even if they don’t market longer-term pieces like Bradley, a short-term asset like Hirano would be a logical chip to put out there.

High-priced arbitration arms: Brad Boxberger is in for a notable bump, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.9MM next season despite middling results as the D-backs’ closer. Elsewhere in the division, Sam Dyson projects at $5.4MM with Giants teammate Hunter Strickland at $2.5MM. Depending on who is hired, new Giants leadership could look to move either righty. Up in Seattle, Alex Colome projects at $7.3MM, making him a pricey setup piece to star closer Edwin Diaz. And in Detroit, Shane Greene projects to take home a $4.8MM salary despite a miserable finish to the 2018 campaign that left his ERA north of 5.00.

Change-of-scenery candidates: Bryan Shaw (2 years, $19.5MM remaining), Mark Melancon (2/$28MM), Juan Nicasio (1/$9MM), Addison Reed (1/$8.5MM), Anthony Swarzak (1/$8MM), Luke Gregerson (1/$6MM) and Brandon Kintzler (1/$5MM) are among the free-agent signees of the past two offseasons whose contracts haven’t panned out as hoped just yet. Hector Neris is a vastly more affordable option with a $2MM projected salary in arbitration, but the Phillies are reportedly willing to listen to offers on a wide slate of players; Neris, who lost his closing gig midseason and was even optioned to Triple-A for awhile, has seen hi standing in the organization slip a bit.

Marlins Sign Victor Victor Mesa, Victor Mesa Jr.

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10:50am: Victor Victor’s bonus checks in at $5.25MM, while Victor Jr. received a $1MM bonus, per Sanchez (Twitter link).

Oct. 22, 9:55am: The Marlins have formally announced the signing of the Mesa brothers and will be streaming a press conference to introduce the pair at Marlins.com and also on Periscope.

Oct. 20, 2:48pm: Victor Victor is expected to receive a bonus in excess of $5MM, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez on Twitter.

2:12pm: Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that the Marlins have officially signed the brothers.  Terms of the deals have yet to be released.

1:15pm: Cuban outfield prospect Victor Victor Mesa and brother Victor Mesa Jr. are expected to sign with the Marlins at some point in the next few days, according to Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald.  The news is certainly not official yet, but an unnamed source claims the brothers have passed physicals and will be introduced “imminently” at a Marlins Park press conference (at which Executive Director Derek Jeter and President of Baseball Operations Michael Hill are slated to attend) scheduled for 11 AM Monday.

Victor Victor, 22, was arguably the most coveted amateur free agent on the International market at current, and Ebro’s sources indicate that he’s expected to receive a bonus in excess of $4MM.  Mesa Jr., 17, is expected to receive a bonus “close to” $1MM, per the report.  Right-hander Sandy Gaston, oft mentioned in concert with his countrymen, appears to be headed elsewhere, per Ebro, though FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel tweets that “the belief” is that Miami could still find a way to fit him in their ~6.75MM bonus pool, too.

Victor Victor, the son of Cuban baseball luminary Victor Mesa, slashed .354/.399/.539 for Matanzas in his last full season of play (2016-2017, when he was just 20) in Cuba’s Serie Nacional.  Reports have indicated that he may need just minimal seasoning in the minors before getting his shot with the big club, with MLB.com taking particular note of his “outstanding” defense, plus throwing arm and running ability, and potential to hit at the top of a lineup.  The older Mesa starred in a recent showcase at his soon-to-be new home park, where he impressed scouts during a live batting practice session.  Mesa Jr.’s calling cards appear to be an above-average arm and plus contact ability, though at age 17, he certainly has plenty of projection remaining.

The addition of the Mesa brothers, particularly the elder of the two, is an important step in the Marlins’ ongoing rebuild of the organization under new ownership.  Last offseason’s trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon marked a clear retooling effort with a focus not only on shedding payroll but also adding a wave of young talent to the organization.  This latest pair of additions will only further the goal of creating a foundation of intriguing young players.  With most of its pool now exhausted, Miami will look to offseason trades and a favorable No. 4 overall selection in the 2019 draft as additional avenues to bolster its growing reservoir of prospects.

International Notes: Kikuchi, Gaston, Jimenez

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It’s already been reported in Japan that the Seibu Lions intend to post ace left-hander Yusei Kikuchi for Major League teams this offseason, but the pitcher himself said after his team was eliminated from the postseason that he has not yet made a firm decision (link via Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times). “Well, the season just ended,” Kikuchi said. “…Regarding the future, it’s not all up to me. I haven’t had a chance to talk with the team.” Kikuchi, 27, added that he needs to spend time with his family to ponder the decision before making any firm request. Coskrey writes that the Lions have publicly acknowledged that they would honor Kikuchi’s request if he ultimately wishes to be posted. Kikuchi turned in 163 2/3 innings of 3.08 ERA ball with 8.4 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 for the Lions this season. In 1035 1/3 career innings in Japan, the three-time All-Star has a 2.81 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 — including a combined 2.58 ERA over the past four seasons.

If he is posted, Kikuchi would be free of international spending restrictions and could negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs on a contract. The new posting system between MLB and NPB would require Kikuchi’s new team to pay a fee equal to 20 percent of his contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of his next $25MM and 15 percent of anything beyond that (including incentives, option buyouts, etc.).

A few more notes on the international market…

  • The Marlins spent virtually all of their international bonus pool on brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr., meaning right-hander Sandy Gaston almost certainly won’t be joining the Miami organization. Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald reports that Gaston’s camp is seeking a bonus north of $2MM for the 17-year-old flamethrower, with both the Orioles and Rays listed as potential landing spots. Baltimore has a reported sum of near $6.5MM left to spend on international amateurs, while Tampa Bay’s remaining international pool is in the $3.5MM range at present.
  • The White Sox have signed infielder Enoy Jimenez, the 17-year-old younger brother of top prospect Eloy Jimenez, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America (via Twitter). Scouting information on the younger Jimenez brother is virtually nonexistent, though it should be noted that the White Sox are barred from spending more than $300K on any international amateur signing due to their pool-shattering $26MM agreement with Luis Robert from the 2016-17 signing period, meaning Enoy couldn’t have received an especially large bonus. That certainly doesn’t mean that Enoy isn’t without upside — many high-profile Latin American players sign for only a few thousand dollars — but whatever the exact amount of the bonus was, it undoubtedly falls well shy of the $2.8MM the Cubs paid to sign Eloy back in 2013.

Quick Hits: Roberts, Brewers, Harvey

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Some rumblings from around baseball as we get ready for the World Series to begin on Tuesday…

  • The Dodgers’ club option on Dave Roberts for 2019 is worth $1.1MM, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link).  The full financial terms of Roberts’ three-year contract aren’t known, though the manager is set to earn a nice payday should the club exercise its option as expected.  It is somewhat unusual that the Dodgers haven’t already locked Roberts up on a longer-term deal, though one would think that an extension is even more of an obvious bit of offseason business now that Roberts had led the team to its second consecutive World Series appearance.
  • The emergence of Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes in the postseason gives the Brewers two more potential options in what could be a very interesting pitching rotation next season, JR Radcliffe of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes.  Woodruff and Burnes were multi-inning relief weapons out of Milwaukee’s pen, with Woodruff starting a bullpen game in Game One of the NLDS and the unofficial starter for Game Five of the NLCS (when Wade Miley’s “start” lasted just one batter in a bit of trickery on the Brewers’ part).  With Woodruff and Burnes likely to be stretched out in Spring Training, they could add depth to a Milwaukee staff that has Jhoulys Chacin as the only sure thing, with Zach Davies, Freddy Peralta, Chase Anderson, Junior Guerra, and potentially a healthy Jimmy Nelson also in the mix.
  • Orioles pitching prospect Hunter Harvey will begin another throwing program in December, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  Chosen 22nd overall by the O’s in the 2013 draft, Harvey has tossed only 176 2/3 innings over his five pro seasons due to a number of arm problems, including Tommy John surgery in 2016.  This past season saw Harvey sidelined with shoulder, forearm, and elbow issues that limited him to 32 1/3 frames for Double-A Bowie.  The right-hander doesn’t turn 24 until December, and the Orioles are still hopeful that Harvey can develop into a solid Major League pitcher if he can shake the injury bug.

MLBTR Originals

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Recapping the past week’s worth of original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing team…

  • MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series is underway, as we deliver a team-by-team analysis of what moves could be on the horizon this winter.  Tim Dierkes got things started with a preview of the Cubs’ offseason, and Mark Polishuk contributed outlooks on the Rays and Diamondbacks.
  • Jeff Todd and Steve Adams continued the Market Snapshot series, previewing the potential free agent and trade options available at every position (and the teams who could be interested) this winter.  This week, Steve looked at corner outfielders, while Jeff broke down center fielders, third basemen, and left-handed relievers.
  • There are a number of intriguing players who could be in line for long-term extensions this winter, including Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman and Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks.  In MLBTR’s latest Extension Candidate entries, Jeff Todd looks at what a multi-year deal could look like between Chapman and the A’s, while Connor Byrne explores what it might take to keep Hicks in the Bronx.
  • Taking a look at two notable Statcast metrics, Connor broke down the top five free agent hitters at every position, ranked by expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives.
  • Paul Goldschmidt could potentially be one of the biggest trade chips available this offseason, though would the Diamondbacks really deal their longtime star?  Connor posed the question to the MLBTR readership in a poll, with 55.76% of respondents voting that Goldschmidt would indeed be switching teams before Opening Day.
  • Another NL West team was featured in another MLBTR poll this week, as Jeff asked if the Rockies should issue a qualifying offer to pending free agent DJ LeMahieu.  60.03% of readers polled arguing against LeMahieu receiving the one-year, $17.9MM contract.
  • Finally, Connor asked readers the question on the mind of the entire baseball world this week — who’s going to win the World Series?  A strong 69.39% majority of readers polled predict that the Red Sox will be triumphant over the Dodgers in this year’s Fall Classic.

Looking For A Match In A Justin Smoak Trade

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The last two offseasons haven’t been too kind to the classic first base-only slugger, as teams have been increasingly less keen to spend their free agent dollars or trade assets on a player who is only viable at a single position (and the easiest position on the field to fill, at that).  As Jeff Todd recently noted in his Market Snapshot of this offseason’s first base options, there are many more intriguing everyday first basemen available in trades than in free agency, though even many of the top potential trade chips carry question marks.

For instance, it isn’t clear whether or not the Diamondbacks would actually be willing to trade face of the franchise Paul Goldschmidt, or if they’ll take a less drastic approach to their offseason maneuvering.  Jose Abreu has been mentioned in trade rumors for a couple of years now, though the White Sox have been unwilling to deal their clubhouse leader, plus Abreu’s stock may have dropped coming off the worst of his five MLB seasons.  The likes of Brandon Belt, Wil Myers, or Carlos Santana carry pricey multi-year commitments, while other first base options might only be suited for platoon duty (i.e. Eric Thames, Justin Bour), might be too hard to acquire in a trade due to years of control (i.e. Jose Martinez), or have yet to prove themselves at the Major League level (i.e. Greg Bird, Dominic Smith).

This leaves Justin Smoak standing out as perhaps the clearest, and most decidedly available, first base upgrade of the offseason.  Unlike the D’Backs or White Sox, the Blue Jays are certainly to open to all offers on their veterans, after having already unloaded much of their experienced talent last season.  Contract-wise, Smoak is a fit in virtually any payroll, as he is controlled only through the 2019 season (via a club option that the Jays will certainly exercise) and at a price of just $8MM.  That makes him a decidedly less expensive proposition than Belt and company, or even players like Goldschmidt ($14.5MM club option) and Abreu (a projected $16MM salary in arbitration) who are also controlled only through 2019.

Smoak’s option will bring the total value of his contract to three years and $16.25MM, and getting some good young talent back for Smoak in a trade would be the icing on the cake of what has proven to be a shrewd extension for the Jays.  Once a top-ranked prospect, Smoak still hadn’t found consistency at the MLB level when the Jays acquired him off waivers from the Mariners after the 2014 season, or even when he signed that extension partway through the 2016 season.  Upon taking over the everyday first base job in the wake of Edwin Encarnacion’s departure, however, Smoak has enjoyed a late-career breakout, cracking 63 homers and hitting .256/.353/.495 over 1231 PA since the start of the 2017 season.

Smoak brings no value on the basepaths (-7.3 BsR in 2018), and the advanced metrics are somewhat mixed on his fielding, as he has alternated between above-average and below-average UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved totals in each of the last four seasons.  Beyond just that middling glovework, Smoak — who turns 32 in December — can’t play elsewhere in the field.  A team in need of offense, however, could be willing to overlook these drawbacks for a switch-hitter who has created 28 percent more runs (128 wRC+) than the average big league hitter over the last two seasons.

Let’s check out which teams make sense as potential Smoak suitors this winter.  After writing off the teams that are rebuilding and/or are already set at first base (Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Reds, Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Marlins, Braves, Rangers, Athletics, Royals, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Orioles), that leaves us with…

Longshots

  • Angels: They almost surely belong in the previous category since Albert Pujols and his hefty contract ($87MM remaining) are still on the books through the 2021 season.  Pujols has, however, been the second-worst qualified player in baseball over the last two seasons as judged by the fWAR metric (-2.0 fWAR), and he’ll be asked to play even more first base since Shohei Ohtani will take an increasing number of DH at-bats in 2019.  The thought is that the Angels will look for a part-time first baseman, though there’s at least a slim chance that they could look to acquire a regular like Smoak and relegate Pujols to the role of a highly-paid bench bat.
  • Pirates: It’s too early to tell if the Bucs will make a full-fledged push to contend in 2019, and if they do, they arguably already have a first baseman in Josh Bell.  Through two full seasons, however, Bell has just 1.5 fWAR total due to defensive and base-running shortcomings, plus his power numbers dropped off considerably last season.  I wouldn’t expect Pittsburgh to give up early on a young and controllable player, plus the Pirates would need to carve out some payroll space elsewhere to afford Smoak.
  • Diamondbacks: Well, if GM Mike Hazen plans to “be creative” with his offseason moves and doesn’t want a full rebuild, Arizona could deal Goldschmidt, and then acquire Smoak in a separate trade.  This keeps first base strong for the D’Backs while also saving $6.5MM in salary.  That said, this scenario is admittedly a little far-fetched.
  • Yankees: Luke Voit and Bird comprise New York’s current first base options, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Miguel Andujar in the mix if the Yankees add a more defensively-adept third baseman (hint hint).  Between these internal options and more position-juggling if the Yankees re-signed Andrew McCutchen or added another outfielder, trading for Smoak seems like it would be pretty far down their list of options.
  • Red Sox: Mitch Moreland is still under contract for 2019, and with J.D. Martinez locked into the DH spot, Boston is likely to just look for a right-handed hitting first baseman (potentially a re-signed Steve Pearce?) as a platoon partner rather than look for a full-timer.

Potential Suitors

  • Rays: Smoak has a better track record than C.J. Cron, who the Rays are likely to cut ties with this offseason, though it isn’t clear if Smoak fits Tampa’s desire for an “impact” bat to hit from the right side of the plate (the Rays already have left-handed hitters Ji-Man Choi and Jake Bauers in the first base/DH mix).  Cron was also actually slightly more productive than Smoak in 2018, with a 2.1 fWAR and 122 wRC+ to Smoak’s 1.7 fWAR and 121 wRC+, and since Smoak earns more than Cron’s projected $5.2MM arbitration salary, the Rays might want more of a substantial upgrade.
  • Twins: This team has enough needs that they could take a step back to reload in 2019 rather than aim to contend.  If they do decide to make a push in a weak AL Central, however, a new first baseman could be required if Joe Mauer retires.
  • Astros: DH Evan Gattis and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez are scheduled for free agency, leaving a couple of holes in Houston’s lineup.  Yuli Gurriel might be able to step into Gonzalez’s utility role, so even if he still gets some time at first base, it leaves room for another player like Smoak in the mix.  If the Astros still have long-term plans for A.J. Reed, he wouldn’t be blocked by Smoak stepping in for just one season.
  • Mariners: The first base/DH situation in Seattle is very much up in the air, considering Nelson Cruz’s free agency, Ryon Healy’s struggles in his first year with the M’s, and where the team plans to play Robinson Cano and Dee Gordon in 2019.  Shifting Gordon back to his old second base spot and moving Cano into a second base/first base/DH timeshare would be a more defensively feasible, and likely wouldn’t create room for a player like Smoak unless Healy was dealt.  One can’t truly rule out any scenario when it comes to trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto, however, and bringing Smoak back to Seattle could work as a short-term fix.
  • Rockies: Only the Orioles got less from their first base position than the Rockies in 2018, as Colorado first baseman combined for less than replacement-level production (-0.8 bWAR).  Regular first baseman Ian Desmond could face a move back to the outfield since Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez could leave in free agency, and Ryan McMahon hasn’t shown much to prove that he could handle the position at this point in his career.  The Rockies might prefer a proven veteran at first base as they look for their third consecutive postseason berth, and Smoak’s bat would be a nice addition for an overall lackluster Colorado lineup.  The Rockies have the clearest need at first base of any contender, and it’s worth noting that they already linked up with the Blue Jays on one recent deal, when Seunghwan Oh was traded to Colorado last July.

AL Central Notes: Diaz, Kipnis, Tigers, White Sox

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The latest buzz from around the AL Central…

  • In a look at what the Indians’ lineup could look like in 2019, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that “serious consideration” is being given to the idea of deploying Yandy Diaz as a regular third baseman.  With Diaz at the hot corner, All-Star Jose Ramirez would move back to second base while Jason Kipnis shifted into a left field role.  The 27-year-old Diaz posted above-average numbers (115 OPS, 115 wRC+) over 120 plate appearances for the Tribe last season, batting .312/.375/.422.  Though Diaz’s .353 xwOBA was only slightly ahead of his real-world .346 wOBA, it’s safe to say that a healthy .371 BABIP surely contributed to Diaz’s success, especially given how Diaz continued to have issues avoiding ground balls.  (To this end, his 53.3% grounder rate in 2018 was actually an improvement over his numbers in the minors.)  When he has put the ball in the air, however, Diaz has shown some tremendous exit velocity, and he has consistently posted strong on-base skills in the minors and in Cuba.  Diaz has played all over the diamond during his pro career but has spent the bulk of his time as a third baseman, giving Cleveland an internal option at the position as they figure out how to best maximize Ramirez’s production, as well as try to solve the twin struggles of Kipnis’ two-year-long slump, and a lack of outfield depth on the roster.
  • Speaking of that latter issue in Cleveland, Pluto notes that “the outfield screams for help via a trade.”  Michael Brantley could leave in free agency and Bradley Zimmer is recovering from shoulder surgery, leaving the Indians with a projected outfield mix of Kipnis, Greg Allen, Leonys Martin, and Tyler Naquin.  The Tribe won’t have much in the way of extra payroll to spend in free agency, so signing a big name outfielder or perhaps even re-signing Brantley could be difficult.  Re-signing one of their other veteran free agents (Rajai Davis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Melky Cabrera) wouldn’t be a substantial upgrade, leaving the trade market as the most logical route.
  • The Tigers have been a power-heavy team for years, though as the team now rebuilds, the next generation of Tigers prospects could be developed with speed and contact-hitting in mind, MLB.com’s Jason Beck writes.  The idea would be to find fast and athletic players with the ability to both deliver doubles and triples in Comerica Park’s spacious outfield, as well as catch such potential extra-base hits when opposing hitters send liners into the alleys.  Finding such multi-dimensional players and teaching them to be fundamentally-sound in all aspects of the game is a big focus for manager Ron Gardenhire and VP of player development Dave Littlefield.
  • The White Sox are still in rebuilding mode, so The Athletic’s James Fegan (subscription required) figures the team will take the long view on offseason roster placements in regards to out-of-options players and potential Rule 5 picks.  Since Chicago is likelier to keep players who can provide more help for the future than help in 2019, thus leaving the likes of Leury Garcia, Kevan Smith (both of whom are out of options), and others on the bubble.

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