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Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Sunday

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Heading into the upcoming week’s general managers meetings, Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton ranks as the majors’ best on-the-block player. Here are the latest rumblings involving the 27-year-old National League MVP hopeful:

  • Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported Saturday that Boston is “definitely in play” for Stanton, but sources tell Jon Heyman of FanRag that the Red Sox don’t look like the front-runners for him at the moment. Rather, the Sox are more focused on other players, including free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez, per Heyman.
  • The Cardinals, who have discussed Stanton with the Marlins, are “determined” in their interest, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The two clubs expect to continue their Stanton talks at the meetings, according to Goold, who adds that the Cardinals also have Marlins closer Brad Ziegler on their radar. The 38-year-old Ziegler is due $9MM in 2018, and it’s fair to surmise that the payroll-slashing Marlins would like to remove as much of his money as possible from their books.
  • Stanton has also piqued San Francisco’s interest, though the Marlins are bearish on the Giants’ farm system and don’t believe the team could put together a satisfactory package for the slugger, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle relays. So, to increase their odds of acquiring Stanton, the Giants would have to commit to taking on more of his enormous contract than a team with better prospects, Shea contends. That would seemingly be problematic for the Giants, who don’t want to spend past the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018 and already have significant money on their books.

Giants Interested In Acquiring Jackie Bradley Jr.

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The Giants are interested in acquiring Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). Bradley is one of “many” outfielders the Giants are eyeing, notes Morosi, who reported Friday that they have discussed right fielder Giancarlo Stanton with the Marlins.

The 27-year-old Bradley would be a much less exciting addition for San Francisco than Stanton, who’s a National League MVP finalist after bashing 59 home runs in 2017, but he’d nonetheless upgrade its outfield. The Giants’ starting center fielder in 2017 was the 33-year-old Denard Span, who easily ranked last in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved (minus-27) and posted a similarly dreadful minus-7.5 Ultimate Zone Rating. Unsurprisingly, then, executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean has identified center field as a position where the Giants must improve.

“Center field needs to be upgraded,” Sabean said this week.

Bradley would fit the bill from a defensive standpoint, having combined for 34 DRS and a 23.5 UZR in center dating back to 2014, his first full season. The lefty-swinger complemented his excellent glove work with terrific offense from 2015-16, slashing .262/.345/.489 with 36 home runs and a .227 ISO in 891 plate appearances, but his production in that department took a step back last season. In 541 trips to the plate, Bradley hit a disappointing .245/.323/.402 and saw his ISO plummet to .158. On the positive side, Bradley still went deep 17 times, and he ranked as one of the premier baserunners in the game for the second straight year, according to FanGraphs’ BsR metric.

While it’s unclear what the Giants would have to give up for Bradley, he’d presumably bring back a solid haul as someone who still has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining. He’s projected to earn an easily affordable $5.9MM in 2018, which surely appeals to a San Francisco club that already has approximately $170MM committed to 16 players for next season and is trying to stay under the $197MM luxury tax threshold. Conversely, the Red Sox are more than willing to spend upward of $197MM if it means improving their offense, which struggled in 2017. Dealing Bradley and acquiring a big-hitting outfielder like Stanton or free agent J.D. Martinez would help them do that.

Quick Hits: Ohtani, McCann, Braves, Phillies

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A few notes from around the game:

  • Soon-to-be free agent ace/outfielder Shohei Ohtani spoke with the Associated Press and other media on Saturday about his desire to leave Japan for the major leagues this winter. “The other day I met with team officials and stated my intentions,” Ohtani said, referring to the Nippon Ham Fighters. “My request was met with warm words of support, so I hope to do my best in America from next year on.” The 23-year-old is renowned for both his pitching and hitting skills, but he noted that he’s “not a complete player yet,” which is his “strongest reason for wanting to go now.” While Ohtani does have “a strong desire” to continue as a two-way player in the majors, he admitted that he’s unsure if it’ll be possible.
  • Astros catcher Brian McCann told Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Friday that he’d like to end his career as a member of the Braves, with whom he thrived from 2005-13. “One hundred percent,” said the 33-year-old McCann. “One hundred percent. This is my home. I played close to 10 years here. This organization is really, really, really close to my heart. I love this organization.” McCann, a Georgia native who still lives there, will be a free agent next offseason if the Astros decline his $15MM option. Braves backstops Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki are also slated to hit the open market, which could pave the way for a McCann-Atlanta reunion in 2019 if the club’s interested in making it happen.
  • The team that makes a surprise splash in free agency is most likely to be the Phillies, according to a group of executives and agents who spoke with Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. “They say they aren’t doing anything, but I have a feeling they will go after someone big,” an exec told Feinsand, who points to right-handers Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb as potential targets for the team. On paper, either would improve a Phillies rotation that ranked 19th in fWAR and 21st in ERA in 2017, when Aaron Nola was their only starter who turned in a particularly strong performance.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/11/17

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The latest minor moves from around baseball:

  • Former major league reliever Wesley Wright has ended his playing career to take a job as a pro scout with the Twins, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Wright, 32, combined for 307 innings with five teams – primarily the Astros – from 2008-15 and posted a 4.16 ERA, with 8.65 K/9 against 3.96 BB/9 and a 47.3 percent groundball rate. The left-hander held same-sided hitters to a weak .234/.313/.334 line along the way. Wright spent part of 2017 with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate and got his release in July after struggling to a 4.88 ERA over 31 1/3 frames.

Free Agent Faceoff: Mike Moustakas Vs. Todd Frazier

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Teams scouring the open market for help at the hot corner would likely agree that Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier stand out as the best unsigned third basemen in the majors. This winter’s class of free agents isn’t brimming with established starters at the position, but Moustakas and Frazier are obvious exceptions, having generally served as above-average players throughout their careers. Moustakas, 29, is likely to score a much richer contract than his soon-to-be 32-year-old peer (MLBTR projects a five-year, $85MM deal for Moustakas and a three-year, $33MM pact for Frazier), though the players’ big league performances suggest that shouldn’t be the case.

Both Moustakas and Frazier were part of the same draft class, 2007, a year in which the former went second overall to the Royals and the latter came off the board 32 picks later to the Reds. Unsurprisingly, Moustakas received much more fanfare as a farmhand, ranking among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects three times (he topped out at No. 9 in 2010, while Frazier peaked at No. 43 in 2010). But since the pair debuted in 2011, Frazier has been the more productive player. As a member of three different teams – the Reds, White Sox and Yankees – Frazier has slashed .245/.321/.459 and racked up 21.2 fWAR in 3,766 plate appearances (approximately 3.3 per 600 PAs). Moustakas, a lifetime Royal to this point, has batted a more modest .251/.305/.425 with 12.1 fWAR in 3,318 trips to the plate (2.2 per 600 PAs).

Mike Moustakas

When analyzing Moustakas’ career, it would be unwise to ignore the fact that the lefty-swinger didn’t truly burst on the scene as a hitter until 2015. Teams that bid on him in free agency will expect to acquire the Moustakas they saw from 2015-17, during which he batted .279/.329/.496 across 1,325 PAs, not the 2011-14 version who limped to a .236/.290/.379 line in 1,993 trips. It’s also worth pointing out that missing nearly all of 2016 with a torn ACL took a toll on his statistical output.

Aside from that 27-game season, Moustakas has made between 136 and 149 appearances in each of his five full campaigns. In his most recent showing, Moustakas accumulated 598 PAs and slugged 38 home runs – trumping the previous career high of 22 he set in 2015 – to go with a .249 ISO (a marked improvement over his .174 lifetime figure).

Moustakas established new high-water marks as a power hitter in 2017, but he also walked a career-worst 5.7 percent of the time, thanks in part to a chase rate that climbed from 34.1 percent between 2011-16 to 40.3 percent. All told, he offered at 55.6 percent of pitches – up from 48.2 percent over the previous six years. Neither Moustakas’ more aggressive approach nor his penchant for hitting infield pop-ups (16 percent, tied for 10th worst in the majors) did him any favors in the on-base department. His .314 OBP easily fell below the .330 league average and somewhat offset his prodigious power. Still, his offensive production was a respectable 14 percent better than average, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He was less effective in the field, with minus-8 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-3.1 Ultimate Zone Rating. In the eyes of those metrics, Moustakas has been a plus defender for the majority of his career, so a bounce back may be in order as he continues to distance himself from his serious knee injury.

Todd Frazier

Frazier, meanwhile, has been a paragon of consistency since his rookie campaign, 2012, the only one of his full seasons in which he appeared in fewer than 147 games. Frazier has been an above-average player every year dating back to then, having notched seasonal fWARs ranging from 2.5 (2016) to 4.8 (2014), and his defensive work has played a role in that. He thrived in the field during a 3.0-fWAR 2017, tallying 10 DRS and a 6.7 UZR. Only once (in 2016) has Frazier logged negative numbers in those categories.

Frazier is better known for his offense than his glove, of course, and he contributed a quality .213/.344/.428 line (108 wRC+) with 27 homers and a .215 ISO in 576 attempts in 2017. As was the case with Moustakas, Frazier hit a boatload of infield flies – a league-worst 18.5 percent, in fact – which helps explain his unsightly batting average. Although Frazier is only a lifetime .245 hitter, the right-hander has never been worse than an average offensive producer in any season, according to wRC+. With 131 homers since 2014, most of Frazier’s offensive value has come from his power, but his patience trended in the right direction last season. Frazier was more selective than usual, with a chase rate of 25 percent (compared to 34 percent from 2011-16) and a swing rate of 40.2 percent (down from 49.2 percent over the prior six seasons), leading to a career-best 14.4 percent walk rate that shattered the previous personal high (9.2) he put up in 2016.

In addition to marketing Frazier’s two-way reliability to third base-needy teams (the Giants, Mets, Braves and Angels, to name a few), his reps at CAA Sports are sure to note that he won’t cost draft pick compensation to sign. That’s not the case with Moustakas, a Scott Boras client who will reject the Royals’ qualifying offer by the Nov. 16 deadline. While Moustakas is a fine player who’s still on the right side of 30, there are legitimate reasons to believe the team that signs Frazier will end up more satisfied with its investment.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Doc, Altuve, Stanton, Jays, Tribe, Mets, Bucs, Brewers

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This week in baseball blogs:

Please send submissions to ZachBBWI @gmail.com.

Poll: Which Of These Prospects Is Most Likely To Be Traded?

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During the offseason, rumors about major league players dominate the headlines. Fans and analysts alike discuss potential landing spots for major league free agents and trade candidates. With so much of the focus on big name MLB players, the subject of which top prospects could change hands falls into the background.

The players below are some of the most valuable trade assets in the game who have not yet lost their rookie eligibility. MLB Pipeline considers each of them to be among the top 25 prospects in baseball. They all play for teams that are firmly in “win now mode”. Indeed, all five of them belong to teams that finished with a top four record in baseball last season. It’s safe to say that, were they to dangle their respective prospects as trade bait, each of those teams could fill nearly any need on their big league roster.

Victor Robles, OF (No. 2 Overall Prospect): Nationals

The Nationals signed Victor Robles out of the Dominican Republic at age 16, and he’s met little resistance throughout his development. The Nats promoted him to the majors for the first time in September of 2017; he even made the club’s NLDS roster. In his 24 regular season at-bats, Robles managed six hits, including three for extra bases. The Nationals are in need of another starting pitcher, and the 20-year-old outfielder could easily bring back an elite arm. Washington’s outfield picture for 2018 seems reasonably clear, with Adam Eaton, Michael Taylor and Bryce Harper all under contract and Brian Goodwin as a solid fourth outfielder option. However, Robles is practically major league-ready right now, so it might not make much sense to trade him when he could easily contribute this season. eIt’s especially important to note that Eaton, Taylor and Harper all dealt with injuries last season. With that in mind, the Nationals might prefer to deal their second-best prospect, outfielder Juan Soto, instead.

Kyle Tucker, OF (No. 7 Overall Prospect): Astros

Houston took Tucker out of H.B. Plant High School in Tampa, FL with the fifth pick in the 2015 draft. The young outfielder proceeded to rocket through the club’s minor-league system, reaching the Double-A level midway through 2017. Tucker’s hit tool is one of the best among minor-leaguers, but the Astros already have other left-handed outfield options at the major league level. Josh Reddick and Derek Fisher both bat primarily from the left side, while George Springer, Marwin Gonzalez and Jake Marisnick figure to be ahead of Tucker on the depth chart heading into 2018 as well. That’s not to say that Tucker isn’t more talented than those players, but it seems like a lot would have to happen for him to stumble into significant playing time next season. On the other hand, the Astros don’t have a clear hole on the major league roster outside of the bullpen, and Tucker is far too valuable to trade for a reliever. The organization has also reportedly been stingy about trading any of their top prospects lately, so perhaps it’s unlikely we’ll see him moved.

Francisco Mejia, C (No. 13 Overall Prospect): Indians

Mejia’s development has been a somewhat slow process; the Indians signed him out of the Dominican Republic all the way back in 2012. However, he’s vaulted up prospect lists after incredible success across the past two seasons, including a 50-game hit streak during the 2016 campaign. The best catching prospect in baseball is only 21 and has an elite hit tool from both sides of the plate. Cleveland decided to give him a bit of seasoning at the major league level this past September, which seems to imply that they think he could be close to MLB-ready. The Indians already have catchers Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez under contract for the foreseeable future, so Mejia could be a good candidate to be exchanged for help at first base if Carlos Santana signs elsewhere. But the Indians are also testing Mejia out at third base in the Arizona Fall League, a position he could more easily claim on the Tribe’s roster at some point in 2018.

Triston McKenzie, RHP (No. 20 Overall Prospect): Indians

After McKenzie struck out 157 batters in 91 innings during his senior year in high school, Cleveland selected the right-hander in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2015 draft. The lanky 20-year-old stands at 6’5″ and throws his fastball in the low 90s, though most scouts believe he could pick up even more velocity as he grows stronger. McKenzie struck out double-digit batters in six different games at the High-A level in 2017, including a 14-strikeout effort on May 9th. Overall, the Royal Palm Beach High School product pitched to a 3.45 ERA (and a 2.67 FIP) while punching out 11.71 batters per nine innings. With the Tribe’s window of contention seemingly at its peak, and McKenzie highly unlikely to reach the majors in 2018, the righty could potentially end up being an excellent trade chip. Even if the young righty were MLB-ready, the Indians already have a stacked rotation that will include Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and two of Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger. McKenzie could be dangled for help at first base (should Santana depart), or elite bullpen help such as Brad Hand or Felipe Rivero.

Alex Verdugo, OF (No. 23 Overall Prospect): Dodgers

The Dodgers took Verdugo in the second round of the 2014 draft, and the left-handed outfielder has done well at every level of the minors. His power isn’t prolific and his speed is average, but his hit tool is excellent. Verdugo is patient at the plate and is great at hitting to the opposite field. While fellow Dodgers prospect Walker Buehler is excluded from this list due to his proximity to the majors and a fairly clear opening in LA’s rotation, Verdugo could be more of a luxury than a vital asset. Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig are set to man center field and right field, respectively, and it’s unclear whether the Dodgers are ready or willing to give up on Joc Pederson yet, especially following a strong postseason performance. Verdugo could potentially be used to land a strong second baseman. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could be used to acquire a more proven outfielder, either. Still, the Dodgers have four other top 100 prospects outside of Buehler and Verdugo. Even if they attempt to make a blockbuster trade during the offseason, they might prefer to move someone a bit further away from the majors.

What do you think? Which of these top 25 prospects is most likely to be with another organization by the time spring training rolls around? (Poll link for app users)

Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Saturday

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On Friday, we learned that the Marlins have had preliminary talks about outfielder Giancarlo Stanton with four MLB teams. As more rumors involving the prolific slugger swirl about today, we’ll keep track of them here.

  • Talks between the Marlins and Red Sox involving Stanton “may be heating up”, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. His source tells him that the Red Sox are “definitely in play”. Spencer also mentions that Stanton’s incredible power would play well at Fenway Park, adding that Boston hit the fewest home runs of any MLB team in 2017. The Red Sox certainly seem like a reasonable fit for many other reasons as well, and Spencer lists a small handful in his piece. They’ve been said to be interested in spending more money, even to the point of exceeding the luxury tax, while it has been said that Stanton prefers to play near a coast. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski is no stranger to making deals with the Marlins, having helped engineer a blockbuster trade to bring Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers back in 2007.

Quick Hits: Osiel Rodriguez, Gloves, Framing

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15-year-old right-hander Osiel Rodriguez may be the top international pitching prospect in the 2018 class, Ben Badler of Baseball America writes.  The young Cuban pitcher threw 96 MPH at the Nations Baseball Showcase this past Thursday, striking out three of the five hitters he faced while retiring the other two on ground balls. Rodriguez threw 13 of his 17 pitches for strikes at the showcase. Badler notes that Rodriguez led Cuba’s 15U league with a 0.39 ERA across 69 innings in 2016 while striking out 127 hitters. He is eligible to sign beginning on July 2nd of 2018 and will certainly garner heavy attention from MLB teams.

Some other items across MLB…

  • In another piece at Baseball America, Tim Newcomb sheds some light on the work of Ryan Smith (product manager for Wilson baseball gloves) to continually evolve the “colors, patterns, lengths, designs or features” of gloves. The trends are defined mostly by the needs of MLB’s top players. “There is no way we could be as good as we are if we didn’t have pros so in tune with their glove working on their craft daily and giving us feedback,” Smith says. The piece mentions Todd Frazier, Dustin Pedroia and Ivan Rodriguez as players who have had particular influence on Wilson’s products.
  • Framing data is flooding baseball, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs opines. The standard deviation between framing runs accrued by MLB teams has declined significantly over the past ten seasons, as Sullivan shows us. Also in his piece are graphs depicting called strikes above average; graphs which show that year-to-year relationships are disintegrating. “A good framer in 2016 was still likely to look like a good framer in 2017, but that couldn’t be said with very much confidence. The data is getting increasingly random,” Sullivan writes. The piece is fascinating for anyone interested in advanced defensive statistics and baseball trends.

Featured image courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

East Notes: Mets, Red Sox, Orioles

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Following a 92-loss season, the Mets will reimagine the way they use their pitching staff, says Marc Carig of newsday.com. The so-called “philosophical shift” may in part be driven by the Mets’ recent hire of former Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway as their new manager. According to one of Carig’s sources, Mets starters not named Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom may be shielded from facing lineups more than twice through the order, following a continuing trend throughout the league. In order to compensate for potentially fewer innnings from their starters, the Amazins plan to employ an eight man bullpen. The dramatic change in plans comes after the team posted a 5.01 combined ERA (the second-worst mark in the National League in 2017) despite watching deGrom finish as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Carig lays out the opponent OPS for each Mets pitcher per times through the batting order as well.

More from baseball’s East division…

  • In a lengthy piece for the Providence Journal, Tim Britton urges against many reactionary moves suggested by Red Sox fans. The body of the article includes 24 fan suggestions for Dave Dombrowski that Britton sought out on Twitter. Among them are cases for why Boston shouldn’t trade for Giancarlo Stanton, why signing Eric Hosmer doesn’t make sense, and why they should neither shop David Price nor move him to the bullpen permanently. While many such suggestions from fans have obvious flaws in logic, Britton’s piece is well worth a read for his detailed perspective on each subject.
  • Too many strikeouts and too few walks plagued the Orioles once again in 2017, writes Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. The team’s 23.0% strikeout rate ranked 5th-highest in the majors, while their 6.4% combined walk rate was the worst in the majors. That horrid walk rate was over two full percentage points below the major-league average. Among the strikeout culprits was first baseman Chris Davis, who led all qualifiers in baseball with a whopping 37.2% strikeout rate. Melewski noted that a quick turnaround in this category isn’t unheard of; the Astros went from having the AL’s worst strikeout rate in 2015 to the league’s best this past season en route to a World Series victory. The Orioles will hope they can follow that example to some extent and put more balls in play next season.

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