Padres Showing Interest In Noah Syndergaard
After a failed pursuit of Noah Syndergaard this past July, the Padres remain interested in acquiring the right-hander from the Mets, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). SNY’s Andy Martino writes that Friars “are expected” to be more aggressive in their pursuit this time around.
To be clear, there’s not yet any indication that the Mets have any intention of trading Syndergaard. New general manager Brodie Van Wagenen spoke of a desire to return to contention when he was introduced earlier this month. Van Wagenen vowed to be active in the free agent market. Reports have suggested that the Mets will pursue an extension with Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. All of that points to a win-now mentality, and trading Syndergaard, at first glance, would seemingly fly in the face of that line of thinking.
It’s at least possible, though, to utilize Syndergaard as a means of acquiring controllable, MLB-ready pieces to plug into other areas of need on the roster. A healthy version of Syndergaard is among the game’s best pitchers and is an incredibly valuable asset to any club aiming to contend. But the Mets have numerous holes throughout the roster and a relatively thin farm system. The notion that teams operate as strict “buyers” or “sellers” has long been flawed, and it’s at least conceivable that the Mets could pursue free-agent upgrades while simultaneously dealing away a valuable MLB piece for multiple big league assets with greater club control.
The interest is notable, too, from the Padres’ vantage point. San Diego may not yet be ready to contend in 2019, but the very fact that general manager A.J. Preller is exploring the idea of cashing in some of his vaunted minor league depth to acquire rotation help seems to be a continuation of the thinking that led to last winter’s signing of Eric Hosmer. The Padres’ lengthy rebuild is at least nearing its terminus, and plugging in some pieces who can help both in 2019 and in 2020-21 — the likely target for a return to contention — may well be the next step in the process. The San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee recently reported that the Padres are eyeing starters young enough to be in their prime in that 2020-21 window, and Syndergaard assuredly fits the bill.
Syndergaard, 26, is under team control for another three seasons and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.9MM next season. He’s spent substantial time on the disabled list across the past two seasons but been legitimately excellent in 184 2/3 innings when healthy: 3.02 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9, 50.4 percent ground-ball rate, 2.56 FIP.
Those three remaining seasons of control, however, mean there’s no reason for Van Wagenen and the front office to feel compelled to move Syndergaard. Even if there’s no immediate desire or optimism regarding a Syndergaard extension, keeping him and deGrom together for at least the next two seasons gives the Mets a formidable rotation nucleus around which to build. And with Zack Wheeler set to hit the open market next winter while Steven Matz also deals with perennial injury issues, there’s an argument that keeping Syndergaard is crucial to the Mets’ plans beyond the ’19 season.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/16/18
Here are today’s minor moves from around the league…
- The Mets announced yesterday that they’ve signed left-handed reliever Ryan O’Rourke to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. The 30-year-old spent parts of the 2015-16 seasons with the Twins, pitching to a combined 4.98 ERA with 48 strikeouts and 25 walks in 47 innings of work. It’s a small sample (80 plate appearances), but O’Rourke has rendered opposing lefties utterly helpless in the Majors, yielding a .134/.244/.239 batting line. Right-handers have posted a less palatable .250/.350/.390 line against him in 118 PAs. O’Rourke spent the 2018 season in the Orioles organization but pitched just 14 1/3 innings across four minor league levels as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. Encouragingly, O’Rourke allowed just two earned runs with a 21-to-1 K/BB ratio in the Baltimore organization.
Market Chatter: Greinke, Suzuki, Eovaldi, Reds, Nats, Phils
The Diamondbacks are “aggressively shopping” righty Zack Greinke, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). With $95.5MM of salary still due over the next three years, he’s an expensive option. But the deal is at least cabined in length, and the Snakes have a good shot at getting out from under most of it. (Alternatively, the club might be able to pay down a larger portion and recoup some talent in a swap — or go in the other direction and include additional talent to make the whole contract go away.) It’s still largely unclear how things will shake out, but the fact that the Arizona organization is looking for a taker certainly makes a trade seem quite plausible.
Here’s the latest chatter on the rest of the market:
- It is a testament to veteran backstop Kurt Suzuki that he has been re-signed, re-acquired, or extended by three of the four organizations he has played for. One of those, the Athletics, could have designs on a third stint. Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, there has already been some discussion between the Oakland club and the 35-year-old free agent. Suzuki has never been more productive at the plate than he was over the past two years with the Braves, when he turned in a cumulative .276/.341/.485 slash with 31 home runs in 697 plate appearances. Slusser also notes that reliever Shawn Kelley remains a possibility to return, with four other teams also inquiring about securing his services.
- Nathan Eovaldi‘s health is a major factor in his free agency. Though he’s only 28 years of age, the righty has undergone a pair of Tommy John surgeries and required another elbow procedure before making it back to the mound in 2018. Of course, the results were quite promising, and he has now also received a strong endorsement from his surgeon today, as Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports. Dr. Christopher Ahmad says that, after conducting an extensive examination, he “would consider [Eovaldi] in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm.” While any signing team will want to take a look for itself, it’s obviously quite a notable opinion to receive at the outset of free agency.
- The Reds would surely love to land Eovaldi or another higher-end arm, though it’s still questionable whether they’ll dabble in that end of the market. What is clear, president of baseball operations Dick Williams said in a radio interview, is that the club hopes to find a pair of new pitchers — likely starters (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Getting the right arms won’t just mean waiting to see what shakes loose at a cheap price, says Williams. Rather, the club intends “to be in front of these agents and these other teams talking more aggressively.” Sure enough, Jon Heyman of Fancred says the Reds have engaged with the Mariners (James Paxton), Indians (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco), and Yankees (Sonny Gray). With the Cinci org said to be hesitant to move its best assets, getting the desired arms could mean exploring some creative trades. That said, Williams shot down recent chatter surrounding purported Padres interest in star Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez. “Just to sort of nip that in the bud, I’ll tell you that rumor is unfounded,” said Williams.
- It’s also clear that the Nationals are on the lookout for starters, though here also it’s hard to know just where the team may focus. As I discussed recently in setting forth the team’s outlook for the 2018-19 offseason, there are an abundance of possibilities at this point. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post provides some insight into the club’s thinking while ticking through the options. She notes that the Nats “think highly” of free agent Dallas Keuchel — the match we predicted when we broke down our Top 50 Free Agents. That’s not to say, of course, that he’s a uniquely clear fit in D.C. As Janes explains, the organization still seems likely to canvass the market, though it seems reasonable to anticipate that it’ll come away with at least one significant new hurler.
- Staying in the division, it’s worth looking back at a post we missed at the time. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported recently that the Phillies are quite likely to deal away third baseman Maikel Franco. Indeed, it seems there’s a reasonable match already under contemplation with the Padres. Of course as noted above, the Friars clearly are interested in looking around the rest of the market before pulling the trigger on a deal for Franco. The Phils are also said to be willing to discuss Cesar Hernandez, though he seems much less likely to be shipped out. It’ll be interesting to see how everything will unfold in Philadelphia, as the team is known to be chasing some of the biggest names on the market but also has some less consequential moves that it could contemplate pulling off first.
Arbitration Breakdown: Jacob deGrom
Over the next couple weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.
The most interesting arbitration case of 2019 is probably Jacob deGrom. The arbitration system is an antiquated method of player compensation. While teams on the free agent market bid based on innovative stats, other numbers that reflect more accurate player valuations, and detailed scouting assessments, the arbitration system still uses stats like wins, saves, and RBI that teams have since discarded in their player evaluation. The stats remain important because a couple hundred players become eligible for arbitration every year, and everyone knows what criteria the system uses.
But arbitration also rewards hardware. An MVP or Cy Young Award can weigh heavily on the ultimate salary a player will take home, and until recently those awards were often based on antiquated statistics like wins. The press was a few steps behind front offices in innovation—after all, that’s probably how it should be.
All these differing forces crash into each other in 2019, as deGrom enters his third year of arbitration eligibility with a mere 10-9 record, but a Cy Young Award. And it was not just a squeaker he won without real competition —he got all but one first place vote in a year where Max Scherzer won 18 games, had a 2.53 ERA, and struck out 300 hitters. Aaron Nola won 17 games this year with a 2.37 ERA too. There were clearly other contenders, but deGrom won thanks to a more knowledgeable press base that eschewed wins and focused on his sensational overall performance.
Arbitration still uses wins, however. And that could easily downgrade deGrom. In fact, my model—which is backward looking by design, asking what raises players have gotten historically with similar statistics—sees deGrom earning a mere $5.5 million raise, which would bring him up to a $12.9 million salary. Back in 2014, Scherzer himself won a Cy Young with a 21-3 record and a 2.90 ERA, striking out 240 in 214.1 innings. That got him an $8.8 million raise, a record for third time eligible starting pitchers which still stands today. The eleven fewer wins are the main reason the model is more skeptical of deGrom. After all, the strikeouts and innings are similar and deGrom’s ERA was a full point lower.
The model could easily miss here. If a panel decides to ignore wins like the Cy Young voters did, it could easily give deGrom a $9 or $10 million raise (and somewhere around a $17 million salary), possibly setting off a new wave of arbitration cases that could simultaneously give arbitration-eligible pitchers salaries more in line with their relative value, all while forcing the unfortunate arbitration salary modelers of this world to retool their models!
Of course, maybe the model is just right. Maybe the Mets will be able to persuade a panel — or, more likely, persuade CAA Sports (the agency that only recently employed new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen) that a panel would be persuaded — that wins will be valued as they have in the past, substantially harming deGrom’s argument. In that case, we would need to look for pitchers with very low win totals and very low ERAs. Only a few names surface.
By far the most interesting is Jeff Samardzija. In 2015, Samardzija went 7-13 with a 2.99 ERA in 219.2 innings, and earned a $4.34 million raise. That seems like an absolute floor for deGrom, who clearly bested Samardzija on every major statistic—even wins. Plus, that was four years ago and is probably a little stale.
There are not even that many very low ERA seasons to look at. Cole Hamels got a $5.5 million raise seven years ago with a 14-9 record and a 2.79 ERA. The model is essentially predicting that deGrom gets Hamels’ raise despite the staleness of that case, and despite the fact that deGrom topped Hamels in every category but wins.
Perhaps another interesting comparable could be David Price, who went 15-12 with a 3.26 ERA in 2015. The most notable aspect of his case though, is the fact that his tally of 271 strikeouts is quite similar to deGrom’s 269. Probably the most compelling aspect of Price’s case, however, was his accumulation of 248.1 innings. That tops deGrom by over thirty frames. Price’s $5.75 million raise could be argued as a ceiling on that front as well. There is a key difference cutting in the other direction, of course, in the form of the extra 1.5 earned runs Price allowed per nine innings.
Whatever deGrom gets, he is sure to set an interesting precedent going forward. Will arbitration panels stop paying as much attention to wins? How will they consider extremely low ERAs? How will Cy Young Awards come into play? The most interesting case of 2019 probably has some light to shine on these questions.
Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts Win MVP Awards
The Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced tonight that Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich was voted the Most Valuable Player of the National League. Meanwhile, fellow outfielder Mookie Betts took the prize in the American League.
Yelich nearly pulled off a unanimous win after helping lead the Brew Crew to a stirring NL Central title. Only one first-place vote went to another player, as Mets hurler Jacob deGrom was not-unjustly rewarded for an exceptional season that already netted him a Cy Young Award.
Clearly, though, Yelich stood above the rest of the position-player field. It surely helped his case that he led a resurgent Brewers club, but the 26-year-old turned in a stellar first year in Milwaukee quite apart from what his teammates did around him. In 651 plate appearances, he turned in a .326/.402/.598 batting line with 36 home runs and 22 steals.
That eye-popping offensive output, combined with solid glovework and excellent overall baserunning, left Yelich with a hefty tally of 7.6 WAR (by measure of both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference). Cubs infielder Javier Baez placed second, with Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado finishing in bronze-medal position.
As for Betts, his season was even more compelling, allowing him to stand out even against a field of excellent contenders in the American League. He finished the season with a ridiculous .346/.438/.640 slash while qualifying for the 30/30 club. Plus, he’s widely considered one of the best defenders and baserunners in the game.
It’s a credit to Betts that he was able to top yet another MVP-worthy performance from the incomparable Mike Trout, whose perennial excellence is not diminished by the fact that a rotating cast of others has occasionally matched or bettered him. Indians infielder Jose Ramirez turned in a second consecutive third-place finish.
Twins To Name Wes Johnson Pitching Coach
The Twins will dip into the college ranks to find their next pitching coach, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that Minnesota is set to hire University of Arkansas pitching coach Wes Johnson to hold that same role in Minneapolis. Additionally, the club will name Jeremy Hefner as its bullpen coach, Derek Wetmore of 1500 ESPN reports.
Taken together, these additions represent the first outside hire under new manager Rocco Baldelli, though the team will still need to add a third base coach and a first base coach. Hitting coaches James Rowson and Rudy Hernandez were retained, and bench coach Derek Shelton will likely be back after finishing as the runner-up to both Baldell in Minnesota and Chris Woodward in Texas.
Prior to his time with the Razorbacks, Johnson was the pitching coach at Mississippi State and Dallas Baptist University. Otherwise, though, his resume doesn’t look like that of a typical MLB pitching coach. The out-of-the-box hire for the Twins comes on the heels of just a one-year tenure for recently dismissed pitching coach Garvin Alston (formerly the Athletics’ bullpen coach).
A look through some of the recent draftees who’ve come from Johnson’s programs at Arkansas, Mississippi State and Dallas Baptist includes Orioles 2018 third-rounder Blaine Knight, Yankees 2017 third-rounder Trevor Stephan, Cardinals righty Dakota Hudson, Mets righty Drew Smith and Yankees right-hander Chance Adams.
As for Hefner, the former MLB hurler will be changing roles within the organization. He’s also something of an unusual hire, as a 32-year-old who was pitching professionally as recently as 2016. As Wetmore explains, Hefner previously performed pitching-related advanced scouting and video work with the Twins.
Mariners Sign Ruben Alaniz
The Mariners announced today that they have inked a MLB pact with right-handed hurler Ruben Alaniz. He’ll take the 33rd spot on the club’s 40-man roster, leaving plenty of room still to work with.
Alaniz, 27, has not yet received a shot at the majors. The nine-year minor-league veteran has mostly toiled without fanfare. Originally signed by the Astros, he pitched for two years in the Tigers system before joining the Rays on a minors pact last winter.
Evidently, Alaniz did enough in 2018 to convince the M’s he is worthy of a MLB roster spot — for the time being at least. He threw 42 2/3 innings of 3.38 ERA ball with 53 strikeouts and 16 walks over 31 appearances, most of which came at the Triple-A level.
While he’ll still have to show he’s worthy of holding onto a 40-man placement, Alaniz will now enter camp with a real shot at earning a chance to pitch in the majors out of camp, or at least take up a place on the club’s relief depth chart. The Seattle organization inked another minor-league free agent, infielder Dylan Moore, to a major-league contract earlier this winter.
Jacob deGrom To Remain With CAA
As recently as last night, Mets ace Jacob deGrom told reporters that he’d yet to settle on who his new agent will be in the wake of Brodie Van Wagenen’s appointment as the Mets’ general manager. That decision now looks to have been made, as SNY’s Andy Martino reports that deGrom will remain with CAA Baseball (Van Wagenen’s former agency), where he’ll be represented by agent Jeff Berry (Twitter link).
Van Wagenen, Berry, and Nez Balelo had shared responsibilities for running CAA, so the recent change at the top left the latter two men as co-heads of the agency. While deGrom had the right to speak with other agencies (and presumably did so) after Van Wagenen fully divested himself of all ties to CAA, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets that deGrom’s decision was made because he valued the stability of remaining with the only agency he’s known since being drafted.
If and when the Mets do broach the subject of an extension with deGrom and Berry, Van Wagenen’s involvement in the process will be limited. At the time of his introduction to the New York media, Van Wagenen was asked about a potential conflict of interest when negotiating against deGrom and other Mets clients in arbitration settings. COO Jeff Wilpon fielded the question (link via the Post’s Dan Martin), saying that Van Wagenen’s contract has “provisions … to deal with any conflicts of interest.” Asked specifically about a long-term deal for deGrom, Wilpon responded:
“We didn’t discuss specifics on any one player like that. I think [deGrom] is to be determined and Brodie is going to have to recuse himself from some of those discussions. He will have to set an overall tone for the organization, which way he wants us to go, and then we’ll have to have some others be responsible for doing the actual contract.”
Beyond that quote, Martino further tweets that Van Wagenen indeed “must recuse himself” from any talks with deGrom, although contract situations centering on any of Van Wagenen’s former clients will likely face some scrutiny in the short term. While concerns surrounding the matter might fade in the second, third and fourth seasons of Van Wagenen’s reported four-year contract, it’s fair to assume that he presently has knowledge of his former clients’ interests that would not be privy to the standard general manager. The precise manner in which Van Wagenen’s limitations would be enforced, to this point, isn’t clearly laid out, but the fact that deGrom is now being represented by Van Wagenen’s former partner figures to further place the situation under a microscope when negotiations begin.
The minor shift in deGrom’s representation has been noted in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains information on more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. If you see any notable errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: 11/15/18
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 5 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents
Five different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Six of the seven players turned down the one-year, $17.9MM offer. Here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.
Astros
The Astros made a qualifying offer to Dallas Keuchel. The Astros were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contract Keuchel signs, the Astros will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.
Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks made qualifying offers to Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock. The D’Backs were a revenue sharing recipient. If Corbin or Pollock signs for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the D’Backs get draft pick compensation after the first round. If one of the players signs for less than $50MM, the Diamondbacks get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. Corbin is a near-lock to sign for more than $50MM, while Pollock is a borderline case. Of the six qualified free agents, the $50MM contract size threshold only matters in the cases of Corbin and Pollock.
Dodgers
The Dodgers made a qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal (Hyun-Jin Ryu already accepted his). Like the Astros, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Grandal signs for, the Dodgers will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.
Nationals
The Nationals made a qualifying offer to Bryce Harper, and the Nats were a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, the Nationals will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Harper signs.
Red Sox
The Red Sox made a qualifying offer to Craig Kimbrel, and the Sox were a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, the Red Sox will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Kimbrel signs.
The Nationals and Red Sox stand to gain fairly unimpressive draft picks, likely somewhere in the 140s. The Astros and Dodgers should get picks in the 80s. The D’Backs should get a pick in the 30s for Corbin. Pollock could land them a pick in the 30s or the 80s depending on whether he gets $50MM.