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Minor MLB Transactions: 11/9/16

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Time to catch up on some recent 40-man roster moves:

  • The Brewers outrighted righties Yhonathan Barrios and Ben Rowen as well as catcher Josmil Pinto, per MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert and Adam McCalvy. Barrios cracked the bigs briefly in 2015 but missed all of 2016 with shoulder issues. The 27-year-old Rowen has minimal major league experience, but did put up a strong 2.33 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 58 minor league frames last year. As for Pinto, who’s also 27, he’s still waiting for another shot at the majors. His .308/.362/.517 batting line over 315 plate appearances could warrant interest.
  • Recently-claimed lefty Jed Bradley has been shipped to Triple-A and off of the Orioles’ 40-man, the team announced. Plucked from the Braves, where he briefly debuted last year, Bradley will be a useful stashed arm if a need arises.
  • The Indians announce that catcher Adam Moore was outrighted. He has one of the more interesting Baseball-Reference pages you’ll ever see. Since receiving significant time in 2010 with the Mariners, he has bounced around quite a bit but managed to appear in the majors in every seasons since. Yet Moore has accumulated just fifty total MLB plate appearances in that six-year span. He’ll surely land as a depth piece somewhere, if he doesn’t return to Cleveland.
  • Righty Dustin Molleken elected free agency after being outrighted by the Tigers. The 32-year-old finally reached the majors in 2016, allowing four earned runs on 12 hits and five walks against eight strikeouts over his 8 1/3 innings. Otherwise, he has spent the last five years pitching in Japan or the highest level of the minors.
  • The Twins outrighted right-hander Alex Wimmers, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press tweets. Wimmers threw his first 17 1/3 major league innings last year, putting up a 4.15 ERA with 14 strikeouts and 11 walks. In his 56 2/3 Triple-A frames on the year, he worked to a 3.97 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9.
  • The Dodgers dropped righty Chin-hui Tsao from their 40-man roster, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick tweets. Now 35, Tsao has made just seven appearances over the last two seasons. All of his prior major league action came between 2003 and 2007.
  • Catcher A.J. Jimenez had his contract selected by the Blue Jays, per a club announcement. He had been removed from the 40-man last spring, but will now be added to prevent him from departing as a minor league free agent. Jimenez has been in Toronto’s system since 2008, but has yet to reach the majors. he posted a .241/.290/.377 batting line over 248 plate appearances at Triple-A last year.
  • The Giants added righty Ian Gardeck to their 40-man roster, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. He missed all of last year due to Tommy John surgery. Gardeck’s most recent showing came at the High-A level in 2015, when he pitched to a 3.54 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 86 1/3 innings.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

It turns out an even year had nothing to do with the Giants winning a World Championship. The secret formula all along had been a combination of great starting pitching, timely hitting and a reliable bullpen. While they did win 87 games and clinch a Wild Card berth before losing to the Cubs in the NLDS, it was clear that the “reliable bullpen” portion was a missing ingredient in 2016.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Buster Posey, C: $110MM through 2021. Contract includes a $22MM club option in 2022 with a $3MM buyout.
  • Johnny Cueto, SP: $115MM through 2021. Cueto can opt out after the 2017 World Series. Contract includes a $22MM club option in 2022 with a $5MM buyout.
  • Brandon Belt, 1B: $72.8MM through 2021.
  • Brandon Crawford, SS: $69MM through 2021.
  • Jeff Samardzija, SP: $79.2MM through 2020.
  • Hunter Pence, OF: $37MM through 2018.
  • Denard Span, OF: $28MM through 2018. Contract includes a $12MM mutual option in 2019 with a $4MM buyout.
  • Matt Cain, SP: $28.1MM through 2017. Contract includes a $21MM club option in 2018 with a $7.5MM buyout.
  • Madison Bumgarner, SP: $13MM through 2017. Contract includes a $12MM club option in 2018 with a $1.5MM buyout and a $12MM club option in 2019.
  • Matt Moore, SP: $8.75MM through 2017. Contract includes a $9MM club option in 2018 with a $1MM buyout and a $10MM club option in 2019 with a $750K buyout.

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

San Francisco Giants Depth Chart; San Francisco Giants Payroll Information

The Giants’ offseason needs are pretty obvious. Closer is priority number one. Left field, although not nearly as urgent, would be the other void that general manager Bobby Evans will likely fill this offseason. Other than that, they’re still in very good shape.

Future Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy is entering his 23rd season as a Major League manager—2017 will be his 11th season with the Giants—and closing in on 1800 regular season victories to go along with his three World Series titles and four National League Championships. He’ll lead a group of talented players with a ton of playoff experience and still in the prime of their career.

The starting rotation remains the strength of their roster. Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto might form the best 1-2 punch in baseball. Jeff Samardzija gave the team over 200 quality innings in year one of his five-year, $90MM contract. Matt Moore was very good after he was acquired on August 1st, especially when it counted the most. The 27-year-old lefty was dominant over his last three starts (23.2 IP, 3 ER, 11 H, 4 BB, 27 K), including Game Four of the NLDS.

Matt Cain should get the first shot at filling the No. 5 spot in the rotation, mostly because he’s making close to $21MM in 2017. The three-time All-Star, who averaged 32 starts from 2006-2013, has been on the disabled list more often than not over the past three seasons. When healthy enough to take the mound, he’s nowhere near as effective as he once was. While the walk and strikeout rates haven’t changed much, his WHIP and ERA have skyrocketed. It’s unclear how much the injuries have to do with his decline and whether he can bounce back at age 32. Fortunately, the Giants have plenty of depth and several young candidates who could step in if necessary.

Chris Heston, who missed most of 2016 with an oblique injury after an impressive rookie season, could be Cain’s top competitor. Clayton Blackburn, Ty Blach and Chris Stratton have nothing left to prove at the Triple-A level and figure to get a long look in Spring Training. None of the three, as is the case with Heston, has more than mid-rotation potential, but won’t be asked to be more than a No. 5 in the Giants’ rotation.

Top pitching prospect Tyler Beede, the 14th pick in the 2014 draft, could also force himself into the picture after posting a 2.81 ERA with 3.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 24 Double-A starts in 2016. Former Marlins ace Josh Johnson, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2013 because of injuries and will turn 33 in January, will also be in MLB camp.

Despite the struggles of the bullpen in 2016, the group of pitchers expected to bridge the gap to the yet-to-be-acquired closer can be quite good. Lefty Will Smith, another August 1st trade acquisition, is one of the top lefty setup men in the league, though he wasn’t necessarily treated that way upon arriving in San Francisco. Fellow lefty Steven Okert has the potential to be one of the best rookie relievers in 2017. Derek Law and Hunter Strickland, while not able to step in and solidify the closer role once Santiago Casilla floundered late in 2016, were still very good overall and should be more than adequate in late-inning setup roles. George Kontos has a 2.49 ERA in 154 relief appearances over the past three seasons and the versatile Albert Suarez should also contribute.

With three of the best closers in baseball available on the free agent market, the Giants are expected to pounce on one as quickly as possible. However, they’ll have to outbid several teams that also have a need at the closer position. The Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Nationals and Yankees could all make aggressive bids for Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon. Even if the closer market is limited to those six teams — which is no sure thing with other organizations possibly looking to bolster their pens –three of them will be left to choose between Greg Holland, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, and a long list of much less appealing former closers, including Jonathan Papelbon, Fernando Rodney and Koji Uehara. Jeremy Jeffress, who was an effective closer for the Brewers before a mid-season trade to the Rangers, is a potential trade candidate. The Orioles and Royals could also shop their respective closers, Zach Britton and Wade Davis, albeit with lofty price tags that would likely scare off any suitors that weren’t absolutely desperate.

The 2017 Opening Day lineup will look a lot like the 2016 version—Denard Span, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik are all penciled into starting spots once again—aside from a new third baseman and, unless Pagan is re-signed, a new left fielder.

Late-season hero Conor Gillaspie, who went 7-for-14 with a homer and two doubles in his last five regular season games and 8-for-19 in the post-season, including a game-winning homer in the Giants’ Wild Card game victory, probably did enough to put him in the mix at third base in 2017. Eduardo Nuñez, an All-Star in 2016 before he was acquired from the Twins in late July, could prove to be the better option, though. Regardless of whether he wins the starting job at third base, his speed (40 SB), power (16 HR) and versatility (he can play 2B, 3B, SS, LF and RF) will ensure he’s in the lineup on a regular basis.

A platoon in left field with Jarrett Parker (.942 OPS in 151 career plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers) and either Gorkys Hernandez or Mac Williamson isn’t out of the question, but there are several proven options on the free agent market that the Giants could sign.

If the Giants are willing to pay top dollar and significantly increase their payroll, Yoenis Cespedes could be on their radar. The cost of finding a good closer likely decreases those chances, though, which would make Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler and Josh Reddick more likely targets. If the plan is to not increase their payroll significantly, Jon Jay or Matt Joyce could be more cost-efficient options, as would bringing back free agent Angel Pagan. The trade market should also present some options with Jorge Soler one of the notable players expected to be shopped.

Keeping this veteran core of talent together isn’t cheap. Even with the salaries of Casilla, Javier Lopez, Jake Peavy, Sergio Romo and Pagan coming off the books, the Giants are projected to be very close to the 2016 payroll total before making a move. My current projection has them around $170MM, the fifth highest total in baseball. Signing one of the top free agents this offseason would require either a payroll increase, creative contract structuring or a trade. If Evans can make it happen, though, the Giants will enter the 2017 season with one of the most talented and well-balanced rosters in the league.

Angels Re-Sign Andrew Bailey, Designate Shane Robinson

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The Angels have agreed to a one-year, $1MM deal with free agent righty Andrew Bailey, per a club announcement (with salary via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, on Twitter). The deal also includes incentives, which may be tied (at least in part) to the possibility that he could function as the team’s closer.

Outfielder Shane Robinson was designated for assignment to clear roster space, the team also announced. The 32-year-old seemed to be a fairly obvious non-tender candidate already after turning in 111 plate appearances of .173/.257/.235 hitting last year.

Bailey, 32, threw well down the stretch for the Halos, even racking up six saves over a dozen appearances late in the season. He ended with a 2.38 ERA in his limited duty in Los Angeles, with eight strikeouts against two walks.

Once the closer for the Athletics, Bailey was sent to the Red Sox in exchange for Josh Reddick before the 2012 season. While Boston thought it was getting a controllable, shutdown reliever, Bailey struggled to stay healthy and wound up contributing just 44 innings over two years. He ended up missing all of 2014 following shoulder surgery and joined the Yankees (where current Angels GM Billy Eppler then was employed) as a minor league free agent.

The 2016 season, then, was a notable one for Bailey, who topped forty major league innings for the first time since 2011. He certainly finished on a high note with the Angels, even returning to some 9th-inning duties for the first time since 2013. Of course, Bailey’s first 32 1/3 innings in 2016 (with the Phillies) weren’t quite as good: he posted a 6.40ERA with 9.2 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9 in that span.

Trade Chatter: Cabrera, Longoria, McCann, Kendrick, Ozuna, Espinosa

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With money to spend, the Astros are expected to pursue a big-ticket bat, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter links). There has long been at least some reason to believe the ’Stros would be in on free agent Edwin Encarnacion, and that’s a possibility per the report. More intriguingly, though, Morosi suggests that Houston will look into dealing for Tigers superstar Miguel Cabrera. There are a number of barriers to that kind of move, of course. While Morosi posits that fellow Venezuelan Jose Altuve could be part of a sales pitch to get Cabrera to waive his no-trade protection, that’s but one element. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said yesterday that he prefers not to part with young assets to make a deal, and surely Detroit will want something back for a player who is still producing premium offensive numbers at 33 years of age. But he’s getting up in years, is limited to first base or DH, and is still owed $220MM over the next seven seasons.

  • Speaking of blockbusters, Morosi also suggests on Twitter that the Rays will be open to scenarios involving star third baseman Evan Longoria. The Dodgers could be one possibility, he posits, at least assuming they don’t land Justin Turner in free agency. Again, it seems there’s reason to avoid running away with expectations. Longoria is fresh off of a strong campaign and is only beginning a reasonable, but hardly cheap $100MM contract extension that was struck way back in 2012. Though Tampa Bay is always a candidate to move salary, and the connection to Rays-turned-Dodgers exec Andrew Friedman is interesting, Los Angeles has proven hesitant to deal away top-quality young assets under his watch. And that’s surely what the Rays would request.
  • The Yankees are readying for a possible deal involving catcher/DH Brian McCann, as Ken Davidoff and Joel Sherman of the New York Post report. Although that is hardly a forgone conclusion, it certainly seems as if a trade is a legitimate possibility. New York GM Brian Cashman has chatted with McCann’s agent about the possibility of a trade — the veteran has full no-trade protection — and Cashman acknowledges that there is a lot of interest with a lot of rivals seeking to improve behind the dish. Meanwhile, the long-time Yankees GM noted that he doesn’t foresee striking a major deal for an ace-level starting pitcher, explaining that such a move would be more appropriate if the club were to “feel like you’re one player away.”
  • We heard yesterday that the Dodgers will consider dealing veteran infielder (and, more recently, outfielder) Howie Kendrick, with a reunion with the Angels cited as a possibility. But that’s not a very realistic scenario, in the estimation of Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter links). Though he only requires a one-year commitment, Kendrick also isn’t terribly cheap with $10MM owed for 2017. He’s also a right-handed bat, which wouldn’t be preferred, and has shown signs of decline in the field and at the plate. The Halos are likely “aiming higher,” per Fletcher, who recently broke down some options for the club. Los Angeles isn’t interested in moving Yunel Escobar to second, he notes, but will be pursuing outside additions. Fletcher cites Cesar Hernandez of the Phillies as a trade possibility, with Derek Dietrich of the Marlins and Scooter Gennett of the Brewers also representing possible trade candidates (though both would arguably best be paired with a platoon mate).
  • Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna has long been a popular name in trade chatter, though he remains in Miami after a strong 2016 season. As MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports, the Marlins aren’t desperate to move him — though they are putting a priority on adding quality starting pitching, and may find that necessary. President of baseball operations Michel Hill explained that the team will continue to put a high price on Ozuna. “We’re not going to sell him on the low, or trade him 20 cents on the dollar, because this is a premium position player with power and athleticism,” said Hill. “I think he showed this year, this is who he is.”
  • As the Nationals evaluate their options up the middle with a bit of roster flexibility, the team is amenable to consider moving veteran shortstop Danny Espinosa, GM Mike Rizzo suggested to reporters including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. Though Rizzo said he’d still be “comfortable” utilizing Espinosa at short, he noted that there a variety of other possibilities. “I could see him as utility player. I could see him as a player you could utilize in a trade context to get another piece that you need,” Rizzo said. “There’s a lot of moving parts we can go, and a lot of different avenues we can attack.” While Espinosa doesn’t have immense trade value — he’s limited offensively and projects to earn $5.3MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility — it’s certainly possible to imagine him being swapped out for another short-term veteran at another area of need (the bullpen, perhaps).

Free Agent Profile: Ivan Nova

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In July, Ivan Nova was nearly a forgotten man. He’d started the season in the Yankees bullpen, then struggled after heading to the rotation in May. Leave it to the Pirates and their pitcher-fixing ways to change that, however. Nova excelled down the stretch after heading to Pittsburgh in a low-profile deadline trade, and he now looks like one of the top starting pitchers available in a paper-thin free agent market.

Pros/Strengths

If we had to edit this section down to six words, it would read, “everything he did with the Pirates.” In 64 2/3 innings with the Bucs, Nova posted a 3.06 ERA, with a 7.2 K/9, a 52.3% ground ball rate and an astounding 0.4 BB/9. (Or, to put that differently, he walked three batters in a span of more than two months.) With the Bucs, Nova focused on throwing first-pitch strikes and improving his release point, and the results speak for themselves. If he’s able to retain the improvements he made, he’ll make a strong addition to pretty much any rotation, and at the relatively young age of 29, there’s hope that he’ll be able to continue contributing for years to come, especially since his ability to get ground balls gives him something of a floor.

Ivan NovaAs I noted in a Free Agent Stock Watch piece in late August, Nova also has precedent on his side. Other pitchers the Pirates have fixed (either in perception or reality) have continued to pitch at least reasonably well elsewhere, including J.A. Happ, Edinson Volquez and Mark Melancon. The Jays are surely happy with their $36MM investment in Happ, whose situation parallels Nova’s in many ways — the Bucs acquired Happ in an under-the-radar deadline deal in 2015, and he immediately transformed from a forgettable back-of-the-rotation type to a strike-throwing stopper. He maintained much of that improvement this year in Toronto, posting a 3.18 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 195 innings and attaining a level of sustained success he’d never experienced before. His contract, seemingly at least somewhat of a risk at the time, now looks like a bargain. Nova’s representatives at the Legacy Agency can point to Happ’s example to show that Nova’s success is unlikely to turn out to be a fluke, or a temporary benefit of working with Ray Searage and the rest of the Pirates’ coaching staff.

Cons/Weaknesses

Again in six words: “everything he did before the Pirates.” There is nothing in Nova’s pre-August track record — besides, perhaps, his consistent ground-ball ability — to suggest he’s worthy of the kind of contract he seems likely to command this winter. The relatively high prospect price the Bucs paid to get Nova (they gave up outfielder Tito Polo and lefty Stephen Tarpley as players to be named) suggests Nova did have value on the trade market. Still, if Nova’s Pirates numbers speak for themselves, his pre-trade numbers do too — before the deal, he’d posted a 4.90 ERA, 6.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 97 1/3 innings with the Yankees. His statistics before that (he had a career 4.33 ERA, 6.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 before 2016, only topping 170 innings in a season one time) are fine but likewise uninspiring. The team that signs Nova will be taking a very expensive gamble that his excellent two months with the Pirates represent his real talent level going forward. That’s a dicey proposition for a number of reasons. Two months is a small sample, and it’s easy to imagine Nova having walked a few more batters in his Pirates tenure and posting a line that looked distinctly less impressive.

Nova had also allowed 19 home runs in 2016 before the trade. Home-run rate isn’t the best indicator of future performance for a pitcher, but Nova also allowed hard contact at a high 35.6% rate. It’s possible to argue that Nova’s success with the Pirates was largely a result of his feeling free to throw more strikes due to the generally homer-unfriendly context in which the Bucs play. (It’s hard to throw as many strikes as Nova did with the Pirates without worrying about the ball flying out of the park every so often.) He might therefore be less attractive target for teams in homer-happy ballparks or divisions.

Personal

Nova was born in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, and as a child, he initially played shortstop and outfield. In 2004, after a growth spurt landed him on the prospect radar, he signed for $80K with the Yankees, the team he’d rooted for as a youngster. He is married to former Miss Dominican Republic Ada de la Cruz.

Market

Nova’s future appears especially bright given the quality of his free agent competition. The only starting pitcher who decisively looks like a better buy is Rich Hill, and even that might be debatable, since Hill is 36. Jeremy Hellickson is the same age as Nova and has a better track record, but lacks the upside Nova demonstrated in his strong finish. Also, since Nova was traded this season, he can’t be extended a qualifying offer, unlike Hellickson.

The Pirates need pitching help and attempted to extend Nova before season’s end, although they reportedly balked at Nova’s asking price of five years and $70MM. They could get involved again this winter, and Nova appears amenable to returning. Signing Nova will almost certainly require the Pirates to make their largest-ever commitment to a free agent, and their recent dumping of Francisco Liriano (whose last free agent contract is the Bucs’ current largest ever) in a dubious salary-shedding trade might indicate they won’t be willing or able to pay Nova what he might be able to get elsewhere. The Angels, Rangers, Twins and Braves also stand out as teams that could have interest.

Expected Contract

Ian Kennedy got five years and $70MM from the Royals last offseason, and Nova’s identical reported asking price seems to have been determined with that deal in mind. It seems unlikely Nova will actually get that much, even in a weak market, since Kennedy had a much longer track record both in number and quality of innings pitched. Nova could get close, though, perhaps receiving a similar average annual value to Kennedy with a slightly shorter commitment. There’s plenty of precedent for free agent starting pitchers in the upper middle of a typical market getting four years at an AAV of $12MM-$14MM. We’re guessing Nova will receive four years and $52MM, which would put his contract in line with recent deals for Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza and Ricky Nolasco.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pitching Rumors: Dodgers, Cubs, Pirates, Braves, Rockies, Padres

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The Dodgers have real interest in pursuing free agent reliever Aroldis Chapman, Andy McCullough suggests (Twitter links). While we’ve heard plenty of indication that the organization also intends to make a bid on its own departing closer, Kenley Jansen, it appears that the fireballing lefty also represents a viable target for one of the game’s biggest spenders — despite the fact that the club jettisoned a deal to acquire Chapman last winter when domestic violence allegations arose. While Los Angeles has spent very little on its bullpen since hiring Andrew Friedman to run its baseball operations, the club obviously saw the value of a shut-down arm while leaning heavily on Jansen during the postseason. The big question remains just how hard the Dodgers will push, but their presence in the market for the two best-available relievers is certainly a boon for the earning power of both.

  • Meanwhile, the Cubs are giving signals that they may be less inclined to pay top dollar for an established relief arm, as Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago reports. While the organization gave up a haul for Chapman at the trade deadline, and featured him frequently en route to a World Series win, Chicago would seemingly prefer to think outside the box to find its next dominant relief arm. GM Jed Hoyer spoke of a “targeted” approach to the roster, with the club set to “explore every avenue” in finding a replacement for Chapman. He cited two prominent examples of pitchers who failed as starters but later emerged in a late-inning role. “You never know who that guy’s going to be,” said Hoyer. “If you stop thinking that way, you have no chance to find that guy. You always want to think like: ’OK, who is going to be that next Andrew Miller? Who’s going to be that next Wade Davis?'” As Mooney notes, Carl Edwards Jr. represents a possible internal option to take high-leverage opportunities, along with former closer Hector Rondon. Beyond that, Hoyer says, the team will “be looking at a lot of ways to acquire pitching” and will “explore every avenue” to add arms this winter.
  • That somewhat unconventional approach has long been pursued by the Pirates, and Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review looks at the team’s rotation prospects this winter. Pittsburgh’s reclamation strategy has paid dividends time and again, but that may be tougher than ever with a thin market and perhaps added competition from other organizations who have seen how the Bucs’ approach can work. GM Neal Huntington emphasized that, while a veteran pitcher would “take[] some pressure off,” it remains hard for his small-budget organization to commit the years and dollars needed to compete on the open market. He stressed the need to continue pushing the development of the team’s homegrown starters, and certainly there are a variety of options already on hand, as MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth analyzed in taking stock of the Pirates’ offseason outlook. As he notes, and Huntington acknowledges, the club could consider bolstering that group by dealing from its fairly robust array of position-player talent.
  • Another organization that could look to the trade market for starters is the Braves, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter), Atlanta has spoken with the Rays about staff ace Chris Archer, who is one of the game’s top starting pitching assets (even after a disappointing 2016 season) due in large part to his youth and highly appealing contract. That’s notable, but hardly should be read as an indication that the Braves will push the pedal to the floor for a top arm. GM John Coppolella stressed that the club is looking for value in all regards, and will continue to be opportunistic rather than stretching to add a premium starter. “Starting pitching is the main need that we have, and we want it badly,” he said. “That being said, if the numbers get crazy or the years get too long [for free agents], we’ll just stick with what we have. Or we’ll look to the trade market for short-term guys. … We’re going to look for value, whether it’s starting pitching, catching, whatever. If the market spirals too far out of control, we’ll just move on to other areas of need. Maybe build a killer bullpen and add to [an area that is a strength already.”
  • Though the Rockies have received promising returns from their own rotation of late, the team isn’t satisfied with its pitching entering the winter, GM Jeff Bridich said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Certainly, that could take the form of a focus on a bullpen that struggled last year, though perhaps a move for a starter can’t be ruled out either. Bridich said that the club is “going to have to take some risks” this offseason and will seek to “improve the impactful pitchers we have.”
  • The NL West-rival Padres also seem primed to take some risks on pitching (and in other areas), and Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the organization was one of many to send scouts to watch free agent reliever Greg Holland in his recent showcase. San Diego has done well recently in finding undervalued assets for the bullpen, and a targeted bet on someone like Holland could make sense — though he’ll presumably draw wide interest given his lofty established ceiling. Meanwhile, the Pads may also consider trade offers for their own controlled arms; Lin mentions Ryan Buchter, Brad Hand, and Brandon Maurer as pitchers who have “consistently drawn outside interest.” Though GM A.J. Preller didn’t exactly suggest that the team would be looking to deal, he acknowledged that clubs have come calling. “There’s definitely been clubs checking in on our bullpen,” he said. “They saw the jobs those guys did this year.”

Latest On Red Sox’ Offseason Plans

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The Red Sox are plotting a more patient and adaptable offseason than they undertook last year, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes. But that’s not to say that the club won’t ultimately push to add veteran pieces at areas of need — particularly, the DH slot and the back of the bullpen.

Boston “badly” wants to sign outfielder/DH Carlos Beltran, a source tells ESPN.com’s Scott Lauber. That certainly seems to elevate the team’s previously reported interested in the veteran switch-hitter. Lauber does note that whether Beltran ends up at Fenway could depend upon whether he’s looking for multiple years, so it seems that the club isn’t quite in at all costs, but it’s clear at this point that he’s a real target.

Notably, because he wasn’t eligible to receive a qualifying offer, the Red Sox would not be required to part with a draft pick to sign Beltran. He ran up a .295/.337/.513 batting line in his age-39 season, so it seems there’s still gas left in the tank, and Boston is evidently interested in pursuing an option that won’t require a significant, multi-year commitment.

Edwin Encarnacion has previously been tied to the Red Sox, but it has never quite been apparent just how interested the club is in pursuing a player who is arguably the best hitter available this winter in free agency. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets that a four or five-year deal for him “seems unlikely.”

Though there’s plainly a match on paper, the team’s own assessment of Encarnacion’s long-term outlook and its own future balance sheets certainly could suggest a different approach. Indeed, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reported recently, Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombroski spoke of factoring in “affordability,” the desire not to tie up the DH slot for too long, and the presence of internal options (now and in the future) that could fill the role.

There are other names to consider, too. Abraham suggests that Kendrys Morales could be a fit, and indeed we’ve heard that connection recently as well. Like Beltran, Morales is a switch hitter, though at 33 years of age he figures to command multiple years. Matt Holliday might also represent a match, Abraham notes. Like Beltran, he’s still capable of spending some time in the outfield, which aids with lineup flexibility. But Holliday’s offensive output dipped last year — his age-36 campaign — and he missed a major chunk of the second half with a broken thumb after already experiencing an injury-limited 2015.

Turning to the bullpen, Dombrowski labeled a set-up man a priority for his organization. “We have some guys that we really like in our pen. None of them have really pitched the eighth inning,” Dombrowski said. “They probably have the skills and abilities to do it, but that would probably be first and foremost a thing of focus for us.”

While the team is optimistic that Carson Smith will return to be a factor in 2017, Dombrowski says that he won’t count on him being available for the first few months, as Britton reports. That keeps a focus on finding a primary set-up option, which Dombrowski saying the club is likely “looking for one guy at this point,” as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. It seems unlikely that veteran Red Sox free agents Koji Uehara or Brad Ziegler will be that guy, Bradford notes, with Dombrowski suggesting tepid interest in both players.

Meanwhile, the veteran executive strongly suggested that southpaw Fernando Abad will be tendered a contract, which suggests that the club won’t have need for another lefty. Though the veteran struggled at times after his mid-season trade to Boston, he represents a solid value at MLBTR’s projected $2MM arbitration salary point.

It doesn’t seem that there’s likely to be much change in the rotation, either, with the team expending to retain its half-dozen starting options rather than seeking to add or deal from that depth. “You’re always open to anything, but we’re really looking at bringing all six to spring training at this time,” said Dombrowski.

Finally, while the catching situation appears to have some uncertainty, it doesn’t seem that the Red Sox are targeting any modifications there at the moment. The market doesn’t admit of many solutions anyway, and Boston does have options. As Lauber reports, Dombrowski says that Sandy Leon will enter the spring as the presumptive regular behind the dish. Presumably, Christian Vazquez is in line for reserve duties, though Dombrowski added that the organization still sees Blake Swihart as a catcher — despite the fact that he played in the outfield for a large chunk of 2016.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Rangers are coming off a 95-win season, and they’ll return plenty of impact players to a 2017 team that could be strong yet again. This offseason will be a challenge for GM Jon Daniels, though, as he attempts to augment a roster that has a number of glaring needs.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Prince Fielder, 1B: $96MM through 2020 (Fielder will remain on disabled list, with an insurance policy covering $9MM per year and the Tigers covering $6MM per year for the rest of his contract)
  • Elvis Andrus, SS: $88MM through 2022 (plus 2023 club/vesting option)
  • Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $82MM through 2020
  • Cole Hamels, SP: $51MM through 2018 (includes $6MM buyout on 2019 club/vesting option)
  • Adrian Beltre, 3B: $36MM through 2018
  • Yu Darvish, SP: $11MM through 2017
  • Martin Perez, SP: $6.85MM through 2017 (includes $2.45MM buyout on 2018 club option)
  • Tony Barnette, RP: $2MM through 2017 (includes $250K buyout on 2018 club option)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • Derek Holland, SP: $11MM or $1.5MM buyout (should the Rangers exercise the option, they’ll also have an option for 2018)
  • Jonathan Lucroy, C: $5.25MM or $250K buyout

Free Agents

Rangers Depth Chart; Rangers Payroll Information

For a very successful team, the 2016 Rangers had more than their share of problems. Their bullpen was a disaster early in the season. Their starting rotation was very weak beyond Cole Hamels, Martin Perez and (when he was healthy) Yu Darvish. And, of course, 2016 saw the sad end of the career of Prince Fielder, in whom the Rangers had made a significant investment. Overall, the team scored 765 runs and allowed 757, for a Pythagorean record of just 82-80. The Rangers certainly could contend again in 2017, and they’ll surely approach their offseason with that in mind. But their roster currently looks a bit closer to that of a problematic 82-80 team than a 95-win juggernaut.

Following a midseason trade for Jonathan Lucroy, the Rangers have plenty of catching help. Lucroy’s $5.25MM option was a trivially easy decision after Lucroy batted .276/.345/.539 for them down the stretch. (That Lucroy, who is now 30 and has nearly seven years of service time, will still be paid just $5.25MM next season is one of the game’s great mysteries.) Lucroy will have a capable backup in Robinson Chirinos, who still will only receive a projected $2.1MM despite producing 2.3 fWAR in less than a season’s worth of at bats over the last two years.

Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre will man the leftmost three infield positions, with the still-youthful Jurickson Profar available to back up any of those three spots as needed. Those positions will require little attention this offseason. But the same can’t be said of first base, where the Rangers are set to lose Mitch Moreland. Moreland is now 31, is coming off an underwhelming .233/.298/.422 season, and has merely been a good complementary player even in his best years. The Rangers would probably be best served simply to let him walk.

They have an obvious replacement for Moreland, too, in Joey Gallo, a prolific minor league slugger who played 32 games at first base at Triple-A Round Rock last season. (Gallo recently injured his hamstring playing winter ball in Venezuela, but there’s no indication that injury will affect his 2017 season.) Gallo’s power is tantalizing — he’s hit at least 26 home runs in all of the last four seasons. He does, however, come with significant downside risk, since he only batted .240 for Round Rock last year, has struck out a ton even in the minors, and has hit just .173 through 153 plate appearances in the big leagues. It’s perhaps no surprise, then, that the Rangers have indicated that they’d prefer to have him start 2017 in the minors. Ryan Rua provides the Rangers with another option at first, and could come in particularly handy since he bats righty while Gallo is a lefty. But his track record is somewhat limited as well. Profar is another possibility at first base.

The Rangers are also thin at DH, since Carlos Beltran is set to depart. Re-signing Beltran (who wants to keep playing next season) would be an obvious move to improve at DH, but it wouldn’t have the benefit of also providing insurance at first. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests one solution would be a reunion with Mike Napoli, who bats right-handed and has had a solid year with Cleveland. A more up-market target could be Edwin Encarnacion, whose big bat would be an exciting fit in Texas and who has already been connected to the Rangers. In any case, acquiring one player for first base or DH would seem to be nearly mandatory.

Ian DesmondWith Shin-Soo Choo and Nomar Mazara, the corner outfield appears set. But it’s unclear who will stand between them, with both Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez eligible for free agency. Either of them could return. Desmond appears to be the higher priority of the two, although the team has expressed interest in re-signing Gomez as well. The Rangers extended Desmond a qualifying offer, and he would be wise to decline it, his misadventures with the qualifying offer last offseason notwithstanding. He’s still just 31 and produced 3.3 fWAR while earning praise for his clubhouse presence, so he seems like a good bet to land a hefty multi-year deal this winter. Gomez, too, should be sought after on the free agent market, thanks to his turnaround following his release by the Astros. Expect the Rangers to be in touch with both players until or unless they sign elsewhere.

Texas will need to balance its issues in center field and 1B/DH with its needs in the rotation. Hamels, Darvish and Perez will be back, but there’s flux beyond that. The Rangers paid Derek Holland a $1.5MM buyout rather than exercising his $11MM option. Holland’s last strong, healthy season was 2013, and he’s a different player than he was then — his fastball velocity has dropped about two MPH, and his offspeed stuff isn’t nearly as effective. He only recently turned 30, but he produced just a 4.95 ERA, 5.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in yet another injury-riddled season in 2016. While he could theoretically return, the Rangers surely hope to do better.

They also face the departure of 37-year-old Colby Lewis, who’ll return to the open market. Like Holland, Lewis had health problems this season, missing two months due to a lat issue. Perhaps the Rangers could bring Lewis back on another cheap one-year deal, but he’s showing serious signs of decline, despite a 3.71 ERA last season. His strikeout rate fell for the third straight season to 5.6 K/9, coinciding with a velocity drop to around the 87-MPH range. He also remains a fly-ball pitcher, making him somewhat of an awkward fit for the Rangers’ home ballpark.

The Rangers’ other rotation options are dubious. A.J. Griffin deserves congratulations for pitching 119 innings in 2016 after missing two years to injury, but he also produced just a 5.07 ERA, with peripherals to match; he’ll likely be non-tendered. Nick Martinez and Chi Chi Gonzalez likewise showed little in their limited opportunities. Top prospect Yohander Mendez looks like he could eventually develop into a solid lefty rotation option, but given his very limited experience above Class A+, he should probably start 2017 in Triple-A.

That means the Rangers will head into this offseason looking for at least one starter. As has been amply discussed here at MLBTR, the free agent market for starting pitching is weak. That doesn’t mean the Rangers won’t pursue higher-ranked pitchers in a market topped by Rich Hill, Ivan Nova, Jeremy Hellickson, and surprising entrant Jason Hammel. But they’ll also likely check out the trade market, which they might favor anyway, since their current 2017 payroll (including Lucroy and several key arbitration-eligible players) already amounts to somewhere around $130MM.

Despite paying fairly hefty prospect prices in recent trades (particularly the pair of deals that netted Lucroy, Jeremy Jeffress, Hamels and Jake Diekman in return for Lewis Brinson, Luis Ortiz, Ryan Cordell, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, Jerad Eickhoff, Alec Asher, Jake Thompson and Matt Harrison), the Rangers have more than enough prospect depth to make a trade, thanks in part to their heavy spending in Latin America in recent years. One wonders, then, if there might be a trade match with the Padres — Friars GM A.J. Preller was previously a Rangers exec who played a key role in the franchise’s Latin spending, and he has Tyson Ross (who is currently recovering from surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome) to deal.

There are, of course, other interesting pitchers potentially available, including many with less problematic health records. And the Rangers could certainly aim to acquire a high-grade arm if they are open-minded about who they’re willing to deal. There have been no specific indications that the Rangers might consider trading Profar (and Daniels has said he envisions keeping him), but a willingness to include Profar in potential deals would surely pique the interest of clubs considering trading starting pitching who’d prefer major league pieces in return.

The Rangers’ bullpen wasn’t a strength in 2016, and the team was especially poor in the first half of the season, when Tom Wilhelmsen, Cesar Ramos, closer Shawn Tolleson and others struggled greatly. Texas relievers mostly recovered in the second half, though, and the bullpen looks to be in reasonably good shape going forward. Tolleson, long ago replaced at closer by Sam Dyson, has already been outrighted. Dyson, Matt Bush, Alex Claudio, Jake Diekman and Tony Barnette all pitched well this season and are slated to return, and Jeffress (an underrated part of the Lucroy trade) provides the Rangers with another controllable bullpen asset. Keone Kela, Dario Alvarez and Jose Leclerc also all showed at least some potential to blossom into reliable bullpen cogs at some point. As with many contending teams, the Rangers surely would not mind adding a bit of relief depth, and could reasonably consider pursuing some of the top-available closers. (If they were to add someone, they would probably prefer a righty.) But they now have enough talent that it doesn’t need to be a top priority.

Nonetheless, the Rangers appear headed toward a tricky offseason. They have plenty of talent, and figure to contend in 2017 yet again. But they also have a number of key positions yet to fill, and will face a tough free agent market with some apparent payroll constraints. Their offseason will be defined by how they navigate those choppy waters as they attempt to find center field, first base and starting pitching help.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Central Notes: Castro, Twins, Dozier, Miller, Morales

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There was plenty of news on the baseball front today as the GM Meetings got the offseason going in earnest. If you’re interested in learning about the top free agents available, be sure to check out MLBTR’s annual ranking of the top fifty — with salary and signing predictions. And for those who’ve already given that a look, give a listen to the recent edition of The Ringer’s “The MLB Show” podcast with Ben Lindbergh and Michael Baumann, in which MLBTR’s own Tim Dierkes joined to break down the coming hot stove season.

Here’s the latest from the AL Central:

  • The Twins have expressed interest in catcher Jason Castro as the offseason gets underway, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Minnesota’s new-look front office will sit down with Castro’s representatives tomorrow at the GM Meetings, per the report. The 29-year-old Castro is a well-regarded pitch framer who delivers some power from the left side, though his limited on-base ability saps much of his offensive value. There figure to be quite a few teams with interest in the veteran backstop, as a number of organizations will be looking to shore up their mix behind the plate.
  • As the Twins seek to build around a core of young talent that is largely already in place, the organization hopes to find some veteran pieces to supplement that group, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes. Levine spoke of the need for “clubhouse ambassadors,” explaining that elder statesmen help get the best out of a team’s in-prime players. Precisely how this interest will be manifested in the team’s offseason plans remains to be seen, and major splashes can probably be ruled out, but it seems that Minnesota could look to supplement its roster via free agency.
  • While Brian Dozier represents an excellent trade chip for the Twins, at least in theory, Berardino explains that it may not be as easy to achieve value for him as might be expected. Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine both discussed the team’s best player in 2016, noting that despite his monster season, the second base position is well-stocked leaguewide. While there would certainly be interest in a player who Levine says is viewed “with a ton of respect” by the incoming brass, the Twins may not have an opportunity to start a bidding war for his services in hopes of finding an overwhelming return.
  • The Indians did not acquire ace reliever Andrew Miller with thoughts of flipping him this winter, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said today, and the team doesn’t intend to change that approach now. (Via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, on Twitter.) Miller’s exploits are well-documented, and his market value already evident in the price that Cleveland paid to acquire him. While it is surely tempting for the team to consider seeking to recoup some of its investment to fill other needs, it seems that it will instead continue to deploy Miller as a high-leverage force.
  • Unsurprisingly, Royals GM Dayton Moore said today that his club isn’t likely to do much of significance on the open market, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reports. “I don’t look for us to be real aggressive with free agents,” he said. “Just because we’re not going to be in a position to add significant payroll — if any, at all, at this point.” Still, the team is interested in pursuing a reunion with Kendrys Morales after passing on a chance to make him a qualifying offer. That seems unlikely unless his market fails to develop — or if the team finds a way to make the salary fit.

Avila: Tigers “Open-Minded” On All Trade Scenarios

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Tigers GM Al Avila said today that the club is willing to listen to offers on even its best-known veterans, as Evan Woodberry of MLive.com reports. Still, Detroit doesn’t necessarily intend to put specific players on the market.

While the Tigers aren’t planning a “full-blown selloff by any means,” said Avila, they feel the need to “be open-minded in listening to what clubs may be interested in from us and what we can do with it.” That includes a willingness to entertain offers, should they come in, for such franchise staples as Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera (both of whom enjoy no-trade protection) — though Avila said “it would be in [the Tigers’] best interest if we could keep them and do everything that we need to do.”

What the team hopes to do, he reiterated, is embark upon a quest for youth, athleticism, and cost efficiency in its major league roster. But while that will be the new operating philosophy, the Tigers seemingly hope to accomplish a smooth transition rather than a drastic rebuild.

“Quite frankly, like I told ownership, it may not get done this winter,” said Avila. “As a matter of fact, it probably won’t get done this winter.”

Beyond Verlander and Cabrera, the Tigers have significant obligations on the books to aging (but still-productive) veterans such as Ian Kinsler and Victor Martinez. The team also owes large sums to younger players like Jordan Zimmermann and Justin Upton, both of whom are coming off of less-than-inspiring first seasons in Detroit.

Perhaps the club’s single most obvious trade piece, though, is right fielder J.D. Martinez, who is just 29 years of age and has been one of the game’s premier power hitters over the last three seasons. While Martinez could theoretically profile as an extension target, given his age and output, Avila made clear that the organization isn’t interested in pursuing new contracts with any players this winter, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweets. With Martinez slated to reach the open market next winter, he could be a major chip for the Tigers in the coming months — or, perhaps, at the summer trade deadline.

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