Followup Notes On The Manny Machado Deal
After nearly four months of waiting, Manny Machado‘s free agency came to a close Tuesday when he agreed to terms with the Padres on a 10-year, $300MM contract that represents the largest free-agent contract ever signed in American professional sports. Only Giancarlo Stanton‘s 13-year, $325MM contract has ever guaranteed a player more money. Machado was pursued by other teams, most notably the Phillies, White Sox and (early in the offseason) the Yankees. While New York was already known to be out of the mix for Machado, the other two primary suitors still had hopes of reeling in one of the offseason’s biggest fish. With that in mind, here are some early reactions to the agreement and some notes on how those who missed out on Machado may proceed in the wake of today’s news…
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets some insight into how the negotiations themselves played out. Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, initially asked teams to submit their best offers in the final week of 2018. At the time, Machado had six clubs involved to varying extents. Those offers were shy of the $300MM guarantee Machado’s camp coveted, though, and rather than simply take the best offer presented, the agency continued working to drive up Machado’s price tag. Ultimately, of course, that proved to be a wise strategy. It’s not known just where Machado’s offers sat in early January, though Lozano made the rare move to publicly speak out against reports on Machado’s market, emphatically calling reports of Machado’s top offer sitting at seven years and $175MM “inaccurate and reckless … [and] completely wrong.”
- The White Sox offered Machado a higher annual value than the Padres but less guaranteed overall money, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Chicago’s top bid for Machado was a $250MM guarantee over an eight-year term with vesting options and incentives that could’ve escalated the contract’s value to $350MM. It’s rare, however, to see players max out their incentives and escalators (particularly on a deal of this length), so it’s not surprising that Machado opted for the larger guarantee. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds a bit more context, reporting that Chicago’s proposal contained a pair of $35MM vesting options in addition to incentives and escalators.
- Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that a high-ranking Padres official flatly informed him that the team will not sign Bryce Harper following the agreement with Machado. The Padres’ payroll will be in the neighborhood of $110MM — a franchise record — but while ownership is clearly willing to spend more than ever before in 2019, it’d still be a shock to see another seismic addition. Despite that report, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Friars won’t completely rule out adding Harper. The Padres have clearly done their due diligence on Harper, so perhaps they’ll continue to lurk on the periphery in case Harper’s view on a shorter-term deal changes.
- Acee’s column also offers a look at how the Padres came to reach an agreement with Machado. San Diego, according to Acee, hadn’t even expressed legitimate interest, let alone discussed an offer, until mid-January. Their early meetings revealed the asking price to be considerably higher than expected, but, as Acee notes, general manager A.J. Preller’s “creativity and relentlessness” ultimately swayed ownership into approving the expenditure. At this time, Acee adds, there’s no immediate plan to add another starting pitcher to the mix. Friars fans in particular will want to be sure to read the column in its entirety, which contains quotes from several Padres players on the reported agreement.
- Although Phillies owner John Middleton infamously spoke of spending “stupid” money early in the offseason, the price for Machado apparently reached a point where the team’s baseball operations officials simply weren’t comfortable. “There’s a certain value that we believe a player brings and we were willing to get aggressive on this,” general manager Matt Klentak told Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Daily News. “If the reports are true, then this contract will exceed our valuation, and sometimes you have to be willing to walk away.” Klentak confirmed that the Phillies are still interested in Harper but cautioned that the team simply wouldn’t allow itself “to be put into a position where we have to do something at all costs.” There’s no way of knowing whether the Phils objectively value Harper at a higher number than Machado, but agent Scott Boras will likely be aiming to topple Machado’s guarantee and Klentak didn’t speak like someone gearing up for a bidding war.
- White Sox general manager Rick Hahn expressed “frustration” and “disappointment” after learning of Machado’s deal with the Padres, writes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. The Sox met with Machado’s camp Monday and presented an increased offer (as noted above), believing that may put them over the edge. Ultimately, though, it seems as though owner Jerry Reinsdorf knew the point at which he felt he had to walk away. “[The Padres’] ownership group did a great job in trumping everyone else,” said Hahn while also commending Reinsdorf’s “willingness to step up” with what would’ve easily been a franchise-record contract for the ChiSox, who have never signed a player for more than Jose Abreu‘s $68MM. Hahn indicated that the White Sox eventually topped out because of a need to “project putting together a total winning roster, and keeping the young players that will ultimately earn into greater dollars themselves.” As for the money earmarked for Machado, Hahn said it would be spent, though not necessarily this offseason (Twitter link via Van Schouwen). It’s worth noting, of course, that next winter’s free-agent market has its own share of high-profile names (e.g. Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Xander Bogaerts, Madison Bumgarner).
NL East Notes: Gohara, Harper, Eickhoff, Hernandez
If the Braves are to repeat their 2018 division title, they’ll likely require significant contributions from some talented young players. Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution examines the status of still-youthful lefty Luiz Gohara, who has shown immense ability but is now looking to reestablish himself after a difficult 2018 both on and off the field. Gohara is said not only to be in much-improved physical condition, carrying less weight and with a healthy shoulder, but also to possess a newfound focus on his craft.
Here’s more from the NL East:
- As part of an interesting look at what it’s like to sit and wait through a long stay on the open market, Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic drops a few nuggets regarding the Nationals and still-unsigned star free agent Bryce Harper. (Subscription link.) Word reached some in the organization recently that the club was “out of the running” to bring back Harper, per the report, though Ghiroli also cautions that there’s still nothing approaching certainty there. After all, Nats ownership and agent Scott Boras have a well-established knack for finding a way to line up on big contracts.
- Phillies righty Jerad Eickhoff is back on the bump in camp, making for a notable step in his comeback effort. As Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports, it was an emotional moment for the 28-year-old and others in he organization. Eickhoff still has quite a few tests ahead of him as he looks to put his finger troubles behind him. As Salisbury explains, there doesn’t seem to be a clear path right back into the Phillies rotation, but it’s also not hard to imagine Eickhoff forcing himself into the picture. There’s still some flexibility to work with as well, as Eickhoff could open the season on the DL and has an option year remaining.
- In other Phillies health news, second baseman Cesar Hernandez is coming back from a broken foot that he played through late last season, as Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. Hernandez, who struggled after suffering the injury, now says that “it affected me in every single way.” The team was aware of the injury and did what it could to limit the strain; it was determined that Hernandez could play without risking further injury. Still, it’s not hard to imagine how it limited the switch-hitter, who saw his OPS fall by over 100 points from the first half of the season to the second. He was also just five-of-nine in stolen base attempts down the stretch. It’d be a nice boon for the 2019 Phils if Hernandez can get back to reaching base at the .370+ clip he carried in the two and a half seasons before his injury.
White Sox Still “Strong Factor” In Machado Market
The White Sox are a “strong factor” in the market for star infielder Manny Machado, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Attention has in recent days focused on the Padres, but it seems it’s still a multi-horse race, with the Phillies also known to be in the picture as well.
It isn’t terribly surprising to hear that the Chicago organization still factors into the discussion. Just how active the club is in its bidding isn’t clear, but the South Siders are continuing to dangle carrots (in less-than-subtle ways) in an attempt to lure Machado to Chicago.
Still, it’s notable that the White Sox evidently remain a legitimate potential landing spot — if only because that’d potentially make for much-needed leverage for Machado’s representatives. With the jockeying surrounding Machado and fellow unsigned star Bryce Harper perhaps entering a final phase, those players’ respective agents need all the cards they can get their hands on.
Recent indications are that the Padres have offered Machado something greater than $240MM and perhaps reaching $280MM. That sets a rather high bar — loftier, perhaps, than the level of contract the White Sox were reportedly dangling one month ago.
Even if the White Sox are willing to top the Friars, there could be further competition. Rosenthal suggests that the front offices of all three organizations see Machado as a better fit than Harper, though ownership preferences may be a bit different. Perhaps, then, there’s still some room for a late run-up in the bidding. Harper’s ongoing presence, and largely overlapping slate of bidders, makes for another factor in this complicated matchmaking dance.
NL Notes: Robertson, Holland, Cardinals, Moose, Cubs
David Robertson decided to act as his own agent while jumping into free agency this winter, eventually landing a two-year, $23MM deal from the Phillies (plus a $12MM club option for 2021). While the final result was successful, Robertson told Philly.com’s Scott Lauber that he had a few nagging doubts once other relievers came off the board and he was still unsigned as the calendar turned to 2019. “That was probably one of the times during the process when I kind of thought, ‘Am I doing the right thing?’ ” Robertson said. “But I tried to stay calm and level-headed and see the bigger picture and know that I have a good set of skills, that the right teams I had spoken to were interested, and it was just a matter of figuring it out and getting an actual deal done.” The self-representation stance also created an interesting dynamic on the other side of the negotiating table, as Phillies GM Matt Klentak admitted “when you’re talking directly to a player about contracts, sometimes I found myself being a little more guarded with what I would say than I might be with an agent.”
Some more from around the National League…
- Greg Holland had a much rougher trip through free agency in the 2017-18 offseason. The veteran reliever described his quest to sign a contract and subsequent rough 2018 season to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale as a situation that “snowballed for me and spiraled out of control for me.” Holland’s services were weighed down by a qualifying offer, and he said that talks with the Rockies abruptly ended after Colorado pivoted to sign Wade Davis rather than wait for Holland to further test the market. As a result, Holland didn’t find a new team until he signed a one-year deal with the Cardinals on Opening Day, and the lack of a proper Spring Training led to disastrous on-field results. “Physically, I felt great, I felt healthy. But you’re throwing to college guys, and a week later you’re pitching in the major leagues in a tie game,” Holland said. “You can only emulate so much of a big-league game….The quicker you can get into a scenario where you’re facing Major League talent on a consistent basis, you’re going to be more successful.” This winter, Holland signed a one-year, $3.25MM deal with the Diamondbacks, as the right-hander looks to get his career back on track.
- Holland’s slow start could factor into the Cardinals‘ decision about pursuing any current free agents this spring, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak implied that if the team did add any new faces on minor league deals, a stint in extended Spring Training could be required or even “demanded” of any new signing. “So, lesson learned from last year perhaps? I think for sure,” Mozeliak said. “You have to take something away from that. The outcome [with Holland] was not what we wanted. I think we did learn our lesson.” Goold also observes that the Cards could face something of a roster crunch as they juggle multiple out-of-options players, so some trades could potentially come later in the spring.
- Mike Moustakas was hoping to return to the Brewers, and the third baseman reportedly turned down a multi-year offer from another team, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. Moustakas and the Brew Crew agreed to a one-year, $10MM deal today that includes a mutual option for 2020, providing at least a chance at a longer-term stay in Milwaukee for the third baseman, though mutual options are rarely exercised. The Angels, Phillies, and Padres were all known to have at least checked in about Moustakas at various points this offseason, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin notes that San Diego’s interest was “tempered.”
- Potential new additions have “not been a heavy part of the discussion” between Cubs skipper Joe Maddon and the front office, Maddon told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters. “That doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen; I’m not saying that,” Maddon said. “But…I anticipate what you see showing up tomorrow [at camp], the [Opening Day] group’s going to be derived from that group.” It has been a quiet offseason for a Cubs team that is seemingly dealing with strict budget restraints, as the Northsiders try to stay under the $246MM payroll mark (to avoid a larger luxury tax penalty).
Phillies In Lead For Bryce Harper
7:00PM: Harper’s market is still “evolving,” as Heyman puts it in his latest tweet. The Phillies are still seen as the likeliest team to land Harper, though the outfielder has received several long-term deals with an average annual value of more than $30MM per season.
6:01PM: There is no deal yet, though according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link), Harper “will ultimately receive” a larger contract than the ten-year, $300MM offer he received from the Nationals before free agency began.
1:15PM: As was the case a month ago, the Phillies are the favorites to sign free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. But Harper’s market has “intensified,” according to Heyman, who unsurprisingly notes he’ll eventually sign a long-term contract.
Philadelphia met with Harper back on Jan. 10, though he and fellow free-agent superstar/Phillies target Manny Machado have shockingly remained on the market since then. Both the Giants and Padres have since joined the race for Harper, who, as of two weeks ago, had drawn interest from “at least” eight teams, Heyman reported. Only five suitors have been identified, though, with Harper’s career-long club – the Nationals – accompanying the Phillies, Giants, Padres and White Sox. The Yankees and Mets are two teams that can be ruled out, Andy Martino of SNY tweets.
Harper entered the offseason seeking a contract worth upward of $300MM – a figure that he could still match or exceed, despite his unexpectedly long stay on the market. And the Phillies are arguably in better position than anyone else to bid an extravagant amount for Harper, as they came into the winter expecting to spend “stupid” money, according to owner John Middleton. The big-market team has been aggressive in improving its roster to this point, having added J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson, but it’s not spending an eyebrow-raising sum on any of those players. Plus, despite those upgrades, the Phillies still aren’t in great shape in the outfield, with Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Roman Quinn and Aaron Altherr serving as their best options besides McCutchen. The 26-year-old Harper blows that group out of the water, needless to say, and his presence would significantly boost the Phillies’ chances of breaking their seven-season playoff drought in 2019.
Should Harper head to Philly, it would remove a prime suitor for Machado, as the club’s only willing to sign one of the two. Without the Phillies in the mix, Machado would seemingly be left to choose between the Padres and White Sox, who have courted him, though it’s possible a previous suitor such as the Yankees or a mystery team could involve themselves in the race to sign him.
East Notes: Stroman, Phils, Moustakas, BoSox, JDM, Mets, Alonso
Right-hander Marcus Stroman expressed frustration toward the Blue Jays on Sunday for not offering him a contract extension during the offseason. However, Stroman’s claim was refuted by an industry source, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports. Whether or not the team did submit an offer(s), no deal has come to fruition, leaving Stroman in his penultimate year of club control. While Stroman generally thrived in Toronto from 2014-17, last season was a different story as the 27-year-old battled injuries and a downturn in production. This offseason may not have been the ideal for Stroman to ink an extension, then, though he insisted Sunday he “embodies the city of Toronto” more than anyone and wants to be there “for a long time.”
Here’s more on the game’s East divisions:
- Philadelphia has been chasing free agent Manny Machado for months, but if the team doesn’t sign him, it appears it’ll go forward with Maikel Franco and Scott Kingery at third base. The Phillies “seem cool” on the possibility of signing Mike Moustakas or another non-Machado free agent to man the position, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. The club’s of the belief that Franco and Kingery are “two really good options,” according to general manager Matt Klentak. The 26-year-old Franco wasn’t much different offensively than Moustakas in 2018, though the latter trumped the former as a defender. Kingery had a disastrous rookie season at the plate, but the Phillies remain high on the 24-year-old, whom they signed to a long-term deal last March before he ever accrued a major league at-bat.
- Red Sox designated hitter J.D. Martinez is only a year removed from a protracted trip to free agency – one that culminated in late February with a five-year, $110MM guarantee. While the open market has frustrated many players over the past 16 months, Martinez may head back to free agency as early as next winter if he opts out of his contract after the season. The 31-year-old said Sunday that the cases of still-unemployed superstars Machado and Bryce Harper won’t play much of a role in his forthcoming decision, per Christopher Smith of MassLive.com. “At the end of the day, I know my value and I know what I bring to the table,” said Martinez – who, like Harper, is a Scott Boras client. “I really don’t look at that. I really judge me on me.” Regardless of whether Martinez does vacate his current contract next offseason, the offensive dynamo noted he’d “love” to continue his career in Boston, which he helped lead to a World Series title in 2018.
- First baseman Peter Alonso, MLB.com‘s 51st-ranked prospect, may be able to help the Mets as early as Opening Day, though whether he’ll make the team’s roster is in question. The Mets would gain an extra year of control over Alonso, 24, by keeping him in the minors until at least mid-April, after all. However, New York – led by general manager Brodie Van Wagenen – insists having seven years of control over Alonso instead of six won’t factor into whether he cracks its season-opening roster in 2019, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com relays. “Our management’s going to fight for [Alonso],” said manager Mickey Callaway. “I think Brodie’s made it clear that he’s a players’ guy. And if he deserves it, he’s going to be on the team.” The main player standing in Alonso’s way appears to be Todd Frazier – the Mets’ projected starter at first – but the 33-year-old is coming off a poor year. Alonso, on the other hand, was highly productive in Double-A and Triple-A stints last season.
East Notes: Yankees, Phils, Herrera, Red Sox, Blue Jays
The Yankees signed right-hander Luis Severino to a four-year, $40MM extension shortly before they were scheduled to face off against him in arbitration Friday. General manager Brian Cashman spoke about the buzzer-beating agreement Saturday, saying (via George A. King III of the New York Post): “We circled back 30 minutes before the hearing and I asked [agent Nelson Montes de Oca] if he wanted to circle back to my room again. The atmosphere was better, different. We both said we would rather not walk into this hearing and do what we have to do. We gave a little, they gave a little. The Severino extension may not be the last one the Yankees dole out before the season, as Cashman revealed that the club has “had conversations with some” unidentified players regarding new deals. Speculatively, center fielder Aaron Hicks, shortstop Didi Gregorius and reliever Dellin Betances – integral Yankees slated to reach free agency next winter – look like logical candidates.
Here’s the latest on a few other East Coast franchises:
- Manager Gabe Kapler claims the Phillies aren’t guaranteeing a No. 1 job to center fielder Odubel Herrera, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. Herrera’s a four-year starter in Philly who still has three guaranteed seasons left on the $30.5MM extension he signed in 2016, but he turned in an underwhelming showing in 2018. He’ll now compete for a place in center and right this spring with Roman Quinn, Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr, according to Kapler. Although, if the Phillies add superstar right fielder Bryce Harper in free agency, it’ll give the Herrera-Quinn-Williams-Altherr quartet one fewer position to fight over. Herrera, for his part, has worked hard in recent months to get himself into better shape, as Lauber details, and Kapler expects the 27-year-old to benefit from the Phillies’ hiring of first base/outfield/baserunning coach Paco Figueroa.
- The Red Sox are expected to trade a catcher – be it Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon or Blake Swihart – before the season. If that happens, they’ll likely be left with minor league signing Juan Centeno as their No. 3 backstop. Manager Alex Cora said Saturday he’d be “comfortable” in that scenario, pointing out he’s familiar with the veteran Centeno from their time with the World Series-winning Houston organization in 2017, per Christopher Smith of MassLive.com. Centeno’s contract does not include an opt-out clause, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed to Smith, so the Red Sox aren’t in danger of losing him before the season. However, as Smith notes, if Boston adds Centeno to its 40-man roster at some point and then tries to send him to the minors, it’ll need to pass him through waivers because he’s out of options.
- Left-hander Ryan Borucki was one of the few bright spots on the Blue Jays’ pitching staff in 2018, a rookie year in which he turned in a 3.87 ERA/3.80 FIP over 97 2/3 innings and 17 starts. Nevertheless, while it appears the Jays are guaranteeing starting spots to Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and newcomers Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard heading into the season, general manager Ross Atkins indicated this week that Borucki will have to battle for a role in their rotation this spring, Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com relays. The soon-to-be 25-year-old Borucki still looks to be the front-runner for the Jays’ No. 5 spot, though, as he’s clearly the most proven 40-man option left on their staff.
NL East Notes: Realmuto, CarGo, Marlins, Braves, Vargas
Newly acquired catcher J.T. Realmuto and the Phillies have yet to discuss a contract extension, agent Jeff Berry said at this week’s news conference to introduce Realmuto to his new team (link via Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia). That doesn’t mean that the two sides won’t eventually sit down and try to work out a long-term arrangement, but Realmuto said at his introduction that he’s scarcely even had time to think about contractual matters on the heels of such a hectic week. “I’ve heard nothing but amazing things,” Realmuto said of the Phillies organization, “so we’ll see about that in the future.” The Phillies control the All-Star for another two seasons.
Here’s more from the division…
- The Marlins are open to signing another veteran position player, writes Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, who calls longtime Rockies outfielder and South Florida resident Carlos Gonzalez a “possible pick-up” for the team. The 33-year-old Gonzalez has seen his offensive numbers drop in recent seasons; while his combined .269/.334/.445 slash and 30 homers over his past 1038 plate appearances are solid at first glance, park-adjusted metrics like OPS+ and wRC+ feel his bat has been a bit below the league average when factoring in the positive effect of Coors Field. CarGo was an NL All-Star as recently as 2016 and ripped 40 homers for the Rockies in 2015. Lewis Brinson, Brian Anderson, Magneuris Sierra and Austin Dean are among Miami’s current outfield options on the 40-man roster, and the Marlins also recently inked Curtis Granderson to a minor league contract.
- Although the Braves have been quiet in terms of roster additions since signing Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann early in the offseason, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that the team expects payroll to increase over its year-end mark of $126MM, be it via spring additions or in-season player acquisition. Atlanta currently has a projected payroll of about $118MM, which would suggest there’s room for at least another $8-9MM to be added, though O’Brien notes that the organization is (unsurprisingly) not divulging a target number for the 2019 payroll. At the time of Nick Markakis‘ return to the organization last month, general manager Alex Anthopoulos spoke about how the relatively low guarantee on that contract could provide some additional flexibility down the line, though that has yet to manifest in the form of a roster move.
- Mets fans hoping for their club to add another starting pitcher don’t appear likely to have that wish granted, as skipper Mickey Callaway declared lefty Jason Vargas the team’s fifth starter yesterday (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). Further, that proclamation indicates that there won’t be a competition for the final rotation spot, which could’ve otherwise included apparently bullpen-bound righties such as Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman or any of the team’s arms in the upper minors (e.g. Corey Oswalt). Certainly, a spring injury or two could change that reality, but for the time being, it appears the Mets are content not only with the arms they have on the 40-man roster but also with the expected roles for each of those pitchers.
NL Health Notes: Wieck, Seager, Arrieta, Eickhoff
Padres lefty Brad Wieck was diagnosed with testicular cancer earlier this year, as AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. The 27-year-old hurler went under the knife not long thereafter. Fortunately, the medical prognosis appears to be good, though it’s obviously something that’ll be watched closely by doctors. Though Wieck will be building back to full strength during camp, it seems his outlook on the field also remains promising. He could return to the hill in the next few weeks, it seems, and could again present the team with a MLB option after making his debut during a promising 2018 campaign.
As we send our best wishes to Wieck for a cancer-free future, we’ll cover some other health matters from the National League …
- President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says that the Dodgers are quite encouraged by the progress of shortstop Corey Seager in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter. It’s “a best-case to this point,” in fact, which certainly paints a hopeful picture. Seager went under the knife at the end of April last year, so he’s about ten weeks shy of being a full year removed from the procedure. The hope remains that Seager will be prepared for Opening Day, manager Dave Roberts indicated yesterday (via Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, on Twitter), though it stands to reason that the club will take a cautious path before fully unleashing the young star.
- Phillies starter Jake Arrieta underwent a meniscus procedure on his left knee about a month back, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). The surgery, which addressed an injury that occurred during the offseason, does not appear to be a major concern, with Kapler saying the expectation is for Arrieta to be ready for the start of the season. Still, the hope was that the veteran righty, who’ll soon turn 33, would be at full health and focused on finding improvements after his ERA rose for the third-straight season.
- Meanwhile, the Phillies are holding their collective breath on fellow righty Jerad Eickhoff. As Kapler explains, and Lauber tweets, Eickhoff has again experienced symptoms relating to the carpal tunnel issues that led to surgery last season. While another procedure isn’t on the table at present, it’s another suboptimal situation. The 28-year-old has shown quite a bit of talent, but is looking to bounce back after missing almost all of the 2018 campaign.
Phillies Extend Aaron Nola
The Phillies have officially reached a long-term deal with star righty Aaron Nola. The contract, which forestalls an arbitration hearing and expands the team’s control rights over its best pitcher, is said to be a four-year, $45MM deal that includes a club option.
Nola, a client of Paragon Sports, will receive a $2MM signing bonus and $4MM salary for the coming season. He’ll then earn successive salaries of $8MM, $11.75MM, and $15MM. The 2023 option is valued at $16MM and includes a $4.25MM buyout. Nola’s 2022 salary and 2023 option value will reportedly each increase by $1MM for each Cy Young win he secures, by $500K for a second-place finish and by $250K for finishing third through fifth in Cy Young voting.
Ultimately, then, the Phillies can control five future seasons of Nola, including 2019, at a total outlay of just $56.75MM (or perhaps a bit more, depending on Cy Young finishes). Nola gives up two would-be free agent campaigns in the deal. He had been nearing a hearing to determine his first-year arbitration salary, with his side filing at $6.7MM and the club countering at $4.5MM.
Now 25, Nola originally came to the Phillies organization as the seventh overall pick of the 2014 draft. He has rewarded the club handsomely for that selection, having already thrown 569 innings of 3.35 ERA ball at the game’s highest level while maintaining 9.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 along with a 50.9% groundball rate.
Those shiny peripherals have been there from the outset for Nola, who has been a darling of ERA estimators ever since he took a big league mound. For his career to date, Nola is credited with a 3.24 FIP, 3.29 xFIP, and 3.48 SIERA.
In a sense, then, Nola’s eye-popping 2018 season was more a continuation than a turning point. But his 212 1/3-inning effort was still clearly a coming-out party, as Nola showed he could sustain excellence over a big workload while pitching meaningful innings. His resulting 2.37 ERA would have made him a Cy Young winner in some campaigns, though he settled for a still-impressive third-place finish after Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer both turned in monster seasons.
[RELATED: MLBTR Extension Tracker]
The obvious comp for this extension is the deal reached two years ago between the Cardinals and Carlos Martinez. That agreement included more money, but a lengthier term, for another high-quality, 25-year-old hurler who was nearing a first arbitration hearing. Martinez took home a $51MM guarantee over five years, while giving the Cards successive $17MM and $18MM options with a cumulative $1MM buyout, meaning his deal would top out at seven seasons and $85MM.
Nola’s camp probably prefers his deal to Martinez’s, which set a high-water mark for arb1 pitcher extensions but did give away two additional seasons of control. Still, it’s a bit of a surprise to see that Nola did not break new ground in earnings, particularly since he secured a significant initial draft bonus in addition to already having one season of arb salary (nearly) in hand. Even if he ended up losing the hearing and suffering a major injury this spring, he’d profile as an easy 2020 tender candidate. The recent experience of Garrett Richards — who has thrown just 138 2/3 innings over the past three seasons and is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, yet earned over $20MM in his final three arb years and then signed for $15.5MM in free agency — shows that teams will pay big money to hang onto the upside of top arms. Nola’s downside was limited, even in the event of a catastrophic injury. In terms of upside scenarios, the tepid free agent market is perhaps a factor, but team squeamishness toward long-term deals did not prevent Patrick Corbin from landing six years and $140MM — due in no small part to the fact that he hit the open market at 29 years of age.
If the option is indeed picked up, Nola will stand to reach free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. He’d certainly still have ample earning capacity at that point, though leaving two prospective free agent campaigns in the hands of the Phils unquestionably removes some of the highest-upside contract scenarios. Of course, chasing the biggest imaginable guarantee certainly isn’t the top priority for every player, and it’s not hard to see how this contract serves Nola’s own interests as well — particularly since he did deal with a worrying forearm strain not long ago.
Whatever one thinks of the deal from the player’s perspective, it seems to be an easy risk for the big-budget Phillies to take. The Martinez experience does show some of the downside risks at play, as his injuries would have tamped down his arb earnings and do cloud his future, though he’s still a talented and youthful pitcher with ample promise. Locking up Nola comes with its own risks, but loads of upside as well.
It’s notable in this case that the sides had such a wide spread in their arb filing numbers. That had set up an important hearing decision, with Nola seeking to step in not far below Dallas Keuchel‘s record $7.25MM salary and the Phils defending something closer to the longstanding ceiling for first-time eligible pitchers (the 2006 Dontrelle Willis salary of $4.35MM). MLBTR projected a $6.6MM salary for Nola, though the team obviously felt comfortable with its aggressively low stance and the panel would have been forced to pick one of the two filing numbers. That left plenty of risk for Nola; the $2.2MM gap, after all, would also have been reflected in his prospective arb2 and arb3 salaries.
On the team’s side, though, the deal forecloses the greater earning situation. Had Nola landed the $6.7MM he asked for, and then turned in two more seasons in range of his career norms, he easily could have cleared $30MM in arbitration earnings and might well have done quite a bit more than that. deGrom’s other-worldly campaign scored him a record-setting $9.6MM year-over-year raise; expecting anything on that order would be foolish, of course, but that number shows the magnitude of potential earnings.
Of greater importance than controlling Nola’s arbitration earnings is the acquisition of control rights over two more seasons, his age-29 and age-30 campaigns. Had Nola hit the open market after his arb time ran out, he might well have commanded a huge and lengthy deal — with any acquiring team interested especially in capturing his remaining prime years. Doing a contract now allows the Phillies to hang onto those seasons for a relatively low price and without any need to promise Nola money well into his thirties.
Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb of The Athletic first reported the deal (Twitter link). Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweeted the contract breakdown. The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reported the contract’s escalator clauses.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.