Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Search
The Phillies are looking to add a front-of-the-rotation type of arm, with The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter links) writing that the Phils want “a starter who can start a playoff game.” To this end, the club has been linked to such arms as the Reds’ Tyler Mahle, the Angels’ Noah Syndergaard, and the Pirates’ Jose Quintana — three of the most prominent starting pitchers remaining on the trade market.
Mahle is controlled through the 2023 season, while Syndergaard and Quintana would be pure rentals as players who are scheduled for free agency this winter. As such, Mahle would surely cost the most in a trade, and Syndergaard carries a bit of a financial hit, with roughly $7.2MM still owed to him over the remainder of the season. By contrast, Quintana is owed only around $675K for the rest of 2022, but Quintana also has a shaky track record over the last few seasons before righting himself this year in Pittsburgh.
Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia’s president of baseball operations, suggested earlier this week that his team was hoping to bolster the rotation, but the Phils were also hesitant about dealing any of their top prospects. Stark backs up that assertion, noting that the Phillies haven’t been willing to move any of Mick Abel, Andrew Painter or Logan O’Hoppe (the Phils’ consensus top-three prospects in the view of Baseball America and MLB Pipeline), or right-handed pitching propects Griff McGarry or Ben Brown. BA ranks McGarry fourth and Brown seventh in their ranking of Phillies prospects, while Pipeline is a little less bullish, ranking McGarry eighth and Brown 26th.
Since the Phillies’ system isn’t considered to be too deep overall, it isn’t any surprise that the front office isn’t keen on parting ways with any of the relatively few premium names on hand in the minors. However, as Stark observes, the Phils will find it difficult to obtain higher-tier pitching unless they’re open to trading prospects. Given the amount of interest Mahle has received from around the league, and given what the Reds just obtained from the Mariners in the Luis Castillo deal, it would seem almost impossible for the Phillies to land Mahle without at least one of the blue-chip prospects.
Syndergaard and Quintana would come at a lower price tag as rental players, but Stark notes that Dombrowski also prefers controllable starters. This was Philadelphia’s strategy in landing Kyle Gibson from the Rangers at last year’s deadline, and landing a starter who is controlled through at least 2023 would give the Phillies some cover since Gibson and Zach Eflin could both be free agents this winter.
The rotation seems to be Philadelphia’s top priority at this point, as Stark says that the Phillies aren’t focused on any bullpen moves for the moment. This is a little surprising given the Phils’ longstanding needs in the relief corps, but it could be that Dombrowski is first exploring his options with the starter market before turning to the (relatively) easier route of adding relievers. Also, virtually every contender in baseball is looking for relievers right now, so Dombrowski could be opting to make some late strikes after the first wave or two of bullpen trades have been made.
Phillies Interested In Matt Chapman
The Phillies have shown interest in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman, but unsurprisingly, the Athletics have put a big price tag on the Gold Glover. In exchange for Chapman, Oakland is asking for one of the Phillies’ top prospects as the centerpiece of a trade package, Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports, with such names as shortstop Bryson Stott or right-handers Mick Abel and Andrew Painter mentioned as the caliber of prospect the Athletics would have in mind.
Since Philadelphia’s farm system is short on premium talent, naturally the “Phillies have been reluctant to” part with any of their best youngsters in a Chapman deal, Coffey writes. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has a long history of trading quality minor league talent for proven big leaguers, however, and it is possible that giving up another blue-chip prospect would simply be the necessary cost to pry Chapman away from the A’s.
While the Athletics’ payroll-cutting endeavors have already begun with tonight’s Chris Bassitt trade with the Mets (a Phillies NL East rival, no less), Billy Beane’s front office isn’t going to move Chapman for pure salary-dump purposes. At his best, Chapman has shown he is one of the game’s best all-around players, combining consistently superb third base defense with some big offensive numbers, particularly in 2018 and 2019. Over the last two years, however, Chapman’s average and OBP totals have dropped off, while his strikeouts have ballooned — Chapman’s 33.1% strikeout rate is the third-highest of any qualified hitter in baseball since the start of the 2020 season.
The Phillies and other trade suitors (the Yankees and Mariners have been linked to Chapman earlier this winter) could use this downturn to try and negotiate a lesser trade return for the third baseman, yet that tactic might not work given the amount of interest in his services. Chapman is projected for a $9.5MM salary in 2022 and also has another arbitration year remaining in 2023, with that extra control only adding to the Athletics’ high asking price.
Alec Bohm (himself a former top prospect) is penciled into Philadelphia’s third base role for Opening Day, though Bohm’s defensive struggles have already led to speculation that a position change could be in his future. Bohm’s lack of production at the plate in 2021 also didn’t help his cause, even if countless players have dealt with the so-called sophomore slump. Theoretically, the Phillies could acquire Chapman and then move Bohm across the diamond into a first base/DH split with Rhys Hoskins, though such a move would then lock up the Phils’ DH spot.
Stott is also a factor in the team’s infield plans, as the 14th overall pick of the 2019 draft has been viewed as a candidate to both make his MLB debut in 2022, and also immediately step into a regular role. This could be as a shortstop if Didi Gregorius is traded, perhaps at second base if the Phillies opted to instead deal Jean Segura, or maybe even at the hot corner, if the Phillies decide to switch Bohm’s position even without acquiring a proven veteran like Chapman. While the Phillies surely also prize Abel and Painter, it would seem on paper that Stott might be the most untouchable of the trio, given Stott’s importance to Philadelphia’s infield plans.
Phillies Sign First-Rounder Andrew Painter, 10 Other Top Picks
7:36PM: Painter signed for a $3.9MM bonus, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports, landing under the $4,197,300 slot value. As for Philadelphia’s other picks, MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis reports that second-rounder Ethan Wilson signed for a $1,507,600, matching the slot price for the 49th overall pick.
6:15PM: The Phillies have made quick work of the top end of their 2021 draft class, announcing that they have come to terms with all 11 of their picks through the draft’s first 11 rounds. This includes first-round pick Andrew Painter, the high school right-hander selected 13th overall. No financial terms were announced for any of the signings — the 13th overall selection has an assigned slot price of $4,197,300.
Baseball America ranked Painter 15th on their list of prospects in this year’s draft class, while MLB Pipeline and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel each had Painter 18th, Fangraphs 22nd, and The Athletic’s Keith Law put the righty in 24th. As McDaniel notes, the additional risk involved in drafting high school pitchers might be the only red flag against Painter, since “basically everything Painter…does grades as a 55 or 60, and the frame, delivery and feel all check out.”
To that point, Pipeline and BA’s grades give high marks to Painter’s four-pitch arsenal, headlined by a fastball that sits in the 93-97mph range and is already considered a plus pitch. There could be more potential for future velocity since the 18-year-old is already either 6’6″ or 6’7″ and weighs between 210-230 pounds. Painter’s control is also very highly regarded, which Baseball America notes is something of a rarity for a high school arm.
2021 MLB Draft, Day One Results
The 2021 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll be keeping track of tonight’s picks as they’re announced. The draft will get underway this evening with the first 36 picks — the first round proper, the compensatory round (which consists of just one pick, the Reds’ extra selection granted when Trevor Bauer rejected their qualifying offer last winter and signed with the Dodgers for more than $50MM), and then Competitive Balance Round A.
Rounds 2-10 (plus the included compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round B) will take place on Monday afternoon, and then rounds 11-20 will take place Tuesday afternoon. This year’s draft is to 20 rounds from five rounds in 2020, and the current expectation is that the 2022 draft will return to its old 40-round format, though the draft structure will be one of many topics under discussion when the league and the players’ union negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement this winter.
For more on these stars of the future, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.
The selections…
- Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, University Of Louisville
- Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt University
- Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
- Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
- Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State University
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas, TX)
- Kansas City Royals: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic High School (CT)
- Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
- Los Angeles Angels: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (Ohio)
- New York Mets: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt University
- Washington Nationals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
- Seattle Mariners: Harry Ford, C/OF, North Cobb High School (GA)
- Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FLA)
- San Francisco Giants: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State University
- Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
- Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
- Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
- St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
- Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University Of Mississippi
- New York Yankees: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois University
- Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University
- Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge High School (IN)
- Cleveland Indians: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
- Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest University
- Oakland Athletics: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA)
- Minnesota Twins: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional High School (NJ)
- San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park High School (MD)
- Tampa Bay Rays: Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines High School (CA)
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL)
- Cincinnati Reds (compensatory pick): Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic High School (FL)
- Miami Marlins (Competitive Balance Round A): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East High School (NY)
- Detroit Tigers (CBR-A): Ty Madden, RHP, University of Texas
- Milwaukee Brewers (CBR-A): Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
- Tampa Bay Rays (CBR-A): Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor High School (TN)
- Cincinnati Reds (CBR-A): Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State University
- Minnesota Twins (CBR-A): Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (WI)