Phillies Notes: First Base, Painter, Song, Pache, Alvarado
TODAY: Hall and Pache will both begin rehab assignments at lower A-ball Clearwater this week, with The Athletic’s Matt Gelb tweeting that Hall will start action on Tuesday and Pache on Wednesday. Alvarado played catch today but didn’t throw his bullpen due to feeling “a little sore.”
MAY 26: After long-time first baseman Rhys Hoskins suffered a torn ACL during Spring Training, the Phillies were left entering the season with a hole at first base for the first time in years. That appeared to open the door for Darick Hall, who impressed in 41 games last year, to take the lion’s share of the starts at first base this season, but Hall suffered a torn ligament in his thumb just six games into the 2023 campaign that required surgery, and has been on the shelf ever since.
Since then, the Phillies have relied on a timeshare between Kody Clemens and Alec Bohm at first base to acceptable but uninspiring results. In 22 games with the Phillies this season, Clemens has slashed a solid .241/.302/.483 that’s good for a wRC+ of 109. That wRC+ figure improves to 127 against right-handed pitching, with Clemens posting a much stronger .255/.321/.529 slash line against righties so far, albeit in a small sample size of just 56 plate appearances. Bohm, meanwhile, has slashed .269/.324/.409 with a wRC+ of just 99 in 204 plate appearances this season, though in 60 plate appearances against lefties, that slash line improves to a healthy .268/.300/.518 figure that’s good for a wRC+ of 115.
While a platoon of Clemens and Bohm has held down the fort capably at the cold corner so far this season, as the club’s wRC+ of 98 at first base this season ranks just 20th in the majors. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that recently-released Cubs first baseman Eric Hosmer could be a fit, though Hosmer has slashed an abysmal .234/.280/.330 in 100 plate appearances this season that’s 32% worse than league average in terms of wRC+. The Phillies have reportedly also considered using superstar Bryce Harper at first base as a way to open up the DH spot while protecting Harper from high-intensity throws in the outfield, though Harper has spent just a third of an inning at first base during his career to this point.
Fortunately for the Phillies, such drastic measures may not be needed at all, as MLB.com notes Hall could begin a rehab assignment as soon as next week, putting him on track to potentially return shortly after he’s eligible to do so on June 5. Hall, who slashed .250/.282/.522 with 18 extra base hits in just 41 games last season, could provide a significant boost to the club’s production at first base with a healthy return.
Hall is far from the only injured Phillies player who has received a positive injury update in recent days, as GM Dave Dombrowski has also expressed optimism that top prospect Andrew Painter and Rule 5 pick Noah Song will both pitch competitively this season. As noted by MLB.com, Dombrowski left open the possibility that Painter, who is currently throwing off a mound from 50-55 feet, could impact the big league club at some point this season. As for Song, he will of course have to be added to the active roster within 30 days of beginning a rehab assignment, and will shed Rule 5 restrictions after spending 90 days on the club’s active roster.
Meanwhile, both center fielder Cristian Pache and lefty reliever Jose Alvarado are targeting returns to big league action at some point next month, with rehab assignments expected for both players in the coming weeks, per MLB.com.
A long-time top prospect, Pache struggled badly with the bat during the first 126 games of his big league career, with a slash line of just .156/.205/.234 during that time. That brutal offensive production led the A’s to trade him to the Phillies just before the start of the 2023 campaign, where Pache got off to a hot start with a .360/.360/.600 slash line in 18 games before hitting the injured list with a torn meniscus at the end of April. An elite defender in center field, Pache figures to shore up an outfield defense that currently features Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in the corners flanking center fielder Brandon Marsh upon his return.
Alvarado, meanwhile, was placed on the injured list early this month with elbow inflammation after his own hot start to the 2023 campaign where he pitched to a 0.63 ERA in 14 1/3 innings of work. The 28-year-old Alvarado, who signed an extension with the club during the spring, threw a bullpen session on Wednesday and figures to throw another tomorrow before progressing to facing live hitters on Tuesday. Once Alvarado returns, he figures to be an immediate factor in the club’s late inning mix alongside Seranthony Dominguez and Craig Kimbrel.
Phillies Notes: Painter, Sanchez, Hoskins
The Phillies entered the season shorthanded in the rotation. That’s in large part because of an injury to Andrew Painter, a top pitching prospect who entered camp in a battle for the final starting spot. That was put on hold when Painter was diagnosed with a sprain of the UCL in his throwing elbow in mid-March.
Philadelphia predictably shut the highly-touted righty down. He spent around five weeks on a no-throw program before playing catch for the first time today, tweets Matt Gelb of the Athletic. It’s the first step in Painter’s throwing program, which the Phils will assuredly take with plenty of caution. There’s still not much clarity on the 20-year-old’s overall recovery timetable but it’s notable that he’s again begun throwing.
Painter is on the minor league injured list and not yet on the 40-man roster. He still hasn’t thrown a pitch at Triple-A, with five Double-A starts late in the 2022 season representing his only regular season action in the upper minors. While he was in consideration for an MLB job out of camp, he’ll almost certainly spend some time in the minors to build his pitch count once he’s ready for game action down the line.
Losing Painter all but assured Bailey Falter of a rotation spot. The Phils then lost Ranger Suárez to the IL, pushing Matt Strahm from the bullpen into the rotation. Southpaw Cristopher Sánchez might have gotten the nod over Strahm had he not also gotten hurt in Spring Training. Sánchez has been battling triceps soreness and opened the year on the IL. His injury doesn’t seem especially serious, as he’s been throwing bullpen sessions in recent days.
Sánchez will report to Triple-A Lehigh Valley tomorrow for a rehab assignment, according to the MLB.com injury tracker. He’s expected to log three innings for the IronPigs. Sánchez working in a multi-inning capacity will give the Phils some needed depth behind their current starting five of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker, Falter and Strahm.
Of course, the spring injuries weren’t limited to the pitching staff. The toughest blow the Phils were dealt this spring came when they lost slugger Rhys Hoskins to an ACL tear in his left knee. That seems likely to cost him the entire 2023 season but the Phillies have refrained from officially declaring him out for the year.
Hoskins met with reporters today, the first time he’d addressed the media since the injury. The 30-year-old first baseman expressed continued hope he could play a part in a potential postseason run (link via Dan Gelston of the Associated Press). “I’m going to do everything in my power to give myself an opportunity that if and when we are playing in late October, I have a chance to contribute to that.”
The injury opened a season-opening path to playing time at first base for Darick Hall. That audition proved unfortunately brief, as Hall suffered a thumb injury last week and will soon undergo surgery. The Phils now have a loose platoon arrangement between Kody Clemens and Alec Bohm (with Edmundo Sosa taking third base when Bohm slides across the diamond) at the position.
NL East Notes: Braves, Nimmo, Painter
The Braves have a handful of areas on the roster that have yet to be settled, even with Opening Day only a little over a week away. The fifth starter competition has been upended since the beginning of spring, as Michael Soroka has once again struggled with injuries while early favorites Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder fell out of favor thanks to excellent springs from prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd. The final spot in the bullpen and the fourth outfielder position are other areas with uncertainty, but perhaps the most interesting camp battle at this point in the Spring is one few expected headed into the year.
As noted by Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the shortstop position is still up for grabs, though most considered youngster Vaughn Grissom all but locked into the role as camp began last month. Since then, though, prospect Braden Shewmake has paired already-excellent defense with a torrid spring at the plate as he’s slashed .333/.400/.482 in 12 grapefruit league games. While it seems that the most likely conclusion to this remains Grissom as the starting shortstop, backed up by Orlando Arcia, Shewmake has made a case for himself this spring, and it’s worth noting that his left-handed bat could serve as a better complement to the right-handed Arcia than Grissom, who also bats righty. Toscano notes that it seems unlikely the Braves would roster both players to open the season, but it’s reasonable to expect that even if Shewmake fails to take the starting shortstop gig for himself to open the season, an opportunity to make his big league debut will open up at some point this season.
More from around the NL East…
- Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo tells reporters, including Joel Sherman of the New York Post, that he was “relieved” following his diagnosis with a sprained knee and ankle that there was no structural damage in either area. Nimmo believes he will still be ready for Opening Day next week, which is surely a relief for Mets fans who recently lost fellow high-dollar returning free agent signing Edwin Diaz for the season to knee surgery. Should Nimmo miss time, it seems likely that would open up playing time for the likes of Tommy Pham and Tim Locastro.
- Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski told reporters, including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, that he still expects top prospect Andrew Painter to make his big league debut at some point this season. Painter was diagnosed with a UCL sprain earlier this spring which took him out of the fifth starter competition in Philadelphia, but the young right-hander has not been recommended for Tommy John surgery, instead attempting to rehab the injury after a four week shutdown. Should the rehab route prove successful, it’s no surprise that Painter would be in the mix to make his debut later this season, as he proved himself to be clearly MLB-ready with a dominant spring prior to the sprain.
Andrew Painter Diagnosed With UCL Sprain; Ranger Suarez Dealing With Forearm Tightness
Phillies top prospect Andrew Painter, who underwent imaging on his elbow over the weekend after reporting discomfort, has been diagnosed with a “right proximal ulnar collateral ligament sprain,” per the team. He sought a second opinion from surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who confirmed the diagnosis. Both the Phillies medical staff and Dr. ElAttrache recommended a four-week shutdown from throwing, after which Painter will begin a “light tossing progression.”
On the one hand, any injury to a pitcher’s UCL is a brutal and ominous blow. The ulnar collateral ligament is the ligament that is replaced during Tommy John surgery, and a sprain indicates some degree of stretching and/or tearing, by definition. That said, surgery for Painter shouldn’t be considered a foregone conclusion just yet. Dr. ElAttrache is one of the sport’s most prominent surgeons and orthopedic experts, and both he and the team apparently agree that the extent of the sprain is not severe enough to require immediate surgery. Time will tell whether Painter is able to avoid going under the knife, but it’s at least relatively good news that he hasn’t suffered a significant enough tear to wipe out his entire 2023 season just yet.
There are plenty of examples of pitchers avoiding surgery even after being diagnosed with UCL damage — Masahiro Tanaka, Ervin Santana, Anthony DeSclafani and Painter’s own teammate Aaron Nola among them. Of course, it’s only fair to point out that the majority of UCL sprains do ultimately lead to surgery, be it a Tommy John procedure (ligament replacement) or an internal brace of the current ligament, which comes with a shorter recovery time but is only possible for certain sprains (depending on the placement of the tear within the ligament and the severity of the tear).
For now, Painter’s shutdown takes him out of the running for the Phillies’ Opening Day rotation — a competition in which he was a prominent factor despite being just 19 years of age. Painter was the No. 13 overall pick in the 2021 draft and has soared through the Phillies’ system to the cusp of MLB readiness in less than two years’ time. He pitched across three levels in 2022 — Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A — working to a combined 1.56 ERA with a massive 38.7% strikeout rate, a strong 6.2% walk rate and a tiny 0.43 HR/9 mark through 103 2/3 frames. Both Baseball America and MLB.com rank Painter as the game’s best pitching prospect and one of the top six overall prospects in the sport.
It’s not the only bad news on the Phillies’ rotation front, either. Left-hander Ranger Suarez, who’d been on Team Venezuela’s roster in the World Baseball Classic, has left the tournament and returned to the Phillies due to tightness in his left forearm, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweeted this morning. The Phillies believe the injury to be minor and merely exercising caution, but it’s still a notable situation that bears monitoring. He’ll undergo treatment with the club for the time being.
Suarez, 27, has solidified himself as a quality middle-of-the-rotation arm behind aces Nola and Zack Wheeler in recent seasons. He started 29 games for Philadelphia in 2022, pitching to a strong 3.65 ERA with a 19.5% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 55.4% ground-ball rate.
With Painter sidelined, left-hander Bailey Falter becomes the clear front-runner for the fifth spot in the Philadelphia rotation behind Nola, Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and — assuming he’s healthy enough come Opening Day — Suarez. If Suarez and Painter are both sidelined to begin the season, the Phillies will likely choose among a group including Cristopher Sanchez, Michael Plassmeyer, James MacArthur and prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at each pitcher earlier in camp when profiling the Phillies’ fifth starter candidates.
Latest On Phillies’ Rotation Competition
The Phillies entered camp with much of the season-opening roster in place. The biggest storyline was the battle for the final rotation spot. The Phils have consistently maintained top pitching prospect Andrew Painter would be given a legitimate chance to claim the job even though he won’t turn 20 until next month.
Those plans were seemingly put on hold last week, as the hard-throwing young righty reported some discomfort in his elbow. The Phils sent Painter for further examination. The club has yet to provide many specifics, though Todd Zolecki of MLB.com wrote yesterday that the team has not received any indication Painter could require surgical repair. It seems the current expectation is Painter will be able to rest and rehab but that won’t be officially known until orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache has an opportunity to review the young hurler’s medicals.
Even if Painter avoids going under the knife, the issue certainly diminishes his chances of cracking the majors out of camp. That’d point towards left-hander Bailey Falter securing the final rotation spot behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez and Taijuan Walker. Falter started 16 of 20 appearances last season, pitching to a 3.86 ERA in 84 frames. The 25-year-old had an average 21.2% strikeout rate and excellent 4.9% walk percentage to support that solid run prevention. The home run ball was a bit of an issue for the fly-ball specialist, but Falter showed enough to suggest he could be a viable back-of-the-rotation option.
Falter addressed his role with reporters this week, indicating he’s not much concerned with where the club deploys him. “As long as I’m one of those 26 guys (on the active roster), I’ll do whatever they want me to do,” he said (link via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Falter has a decent amount of experience in the relief corps as well, coming out of the bullpen 21 times in 22 outings during his rookie season two years ago.
Aside from Falter and Painter, southpaw Cristopher Sánchez perhaps represents the top option for the fifth rotation spot. Zolecki notes that manager Rob Thomson has named righty Nick Nelson as another starting candidate. Nelson has only started four big league games and none of those appearances lasted more than two innings as opener work. He worked primarily in a multi-inning relief capacity last season, his first in Philadelphia. Nelson threw 68 2/3 innings over 47 outings, pitching to a 4.85 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk percentage.
Phillies’ Andrew Painter Undergoing Testing On Elbow
TODAY: An update on Painter will come Sunday or Monday rather than today, Thomson told reporters (including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). The manager said Painter “is in good spirits,” but Thomson otherwise declined to give details on the nature of the testing or whether or not Painter or the team are looking for a second opinion.
MARCH 3: Phillies right-hander Andrew Painter, arguably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, reported feeling “tenderness” in his elbow and has been sent for testing, manager Rob Thomson announced to reporters Friday (link via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). The skipper did not provide further specifics on the type of tests being performed or the organization’s level of concern. More information is expected to be provided tomorrow.
Just 19 years old, Painter was the No. 13 overall pick in the 2021 draft and has soared through the Phillies’ system to the cusp of MLB readiness in less than two years’ time. He pitched across three levels in 2022 — Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A — working to a combined 1.56 ERA with a massive 38.7% strikeout rate, a strong 6.2% walk rate and a tiny 0.43 HR/9 mark through 103 2/3 frames. Both Baseball America and MLB.com rank Painter as the game’s best pitching prospect and one of the top six overall prospects in the sport.
Despite his youth and lack of Triple-A seasoning, Painter was vying for a spot in the Phillies’ Opening Day rotation. Philadelphia currently has Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez and offseason signee Taijuan Walker locked into spots, but Painter has been competing with Bailey Falter (among others) for the fifth and final place in Thomson’s rotation. He just made his Grapefruit League debut earlier in the week, tossing a pair of innings against the Twins and allowing a run on three hits and no walks with one strikeout. Painter tossed 29 pitches in that outing, regularly hitting 99 mph with his heater.
[Related: The Phillies’ Fifth Starter Possibilities]
There’s little sense in speculating as to what type of injury, if any, Painter may be battling. The Phillies are concerned enough to send him for testing of some degree, which is cause for obvious trepidation among the fan base. Then again, it should be emphasized that it behooves the Phillies to proceed with as much caution as possible, given Painter’s upside and long-term value to the club. To this point, there’s no indication that the team expects a serious injury to be at play.
If Painter were to miss time, be it a brief shutdown in camp or a stay on the injured list once the season is underway, Falter’s grip on the final rotation spot would likely tighten. The 25-year-old appeared in 20 games with the Phils last year, 16 of them starts, and pitched to a solid 3.86 ERA through 84 frames. Falter’s 21.2% strikeout rate was a bit below average, but his 4.9% walk rate was among the best in baseball — tied for 20th-best among the 159 pitchers who tossed at least 80 innings.
The Phillies’ Fifth Starter Possibilities
The Phillies had a bit of shuffling in the middle of their rotation this offseason. Each of Zach Eflin, Noah Syndergaard and Kyle Gibson went elsewhere in free agency. Philadelphia partially backfilled the starting staff by bringing Taijuan Walker aboard, but they focused the rest of their offseason attention on installing Trea Turner atop the lineup and stockpiling bullpen help.
Philadelphia has one of baseball’s best one-two punch atop the rotation in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Walker steps into the third or fourth role, pairing with southpaw Ranger Suárez in the middle. Losing Eflin and Gibson thins out the depth at the back end, leaving the Phils to rely on someone without much starting experience at the big league level in the #5 role.
Turning to those possibilities:
Some MLB Rotation Work
Falter, a 25-year-old lefty, made 16 starts out of 20 outings for the Phils last year. That came on the heels of a rookie campaign in which he was used almost exclusively out of the bullpen and posted a 5.61 ERA. Falter had a better run prevention mark last season, allowing just 3.86 earned runs per nine innings. Falter struck out a roughly average 21.2% of opponents and kept his walks to a sparkling 4.9% clip last season. His ground-ball percentage dropped from 36.1% as a rookie to 31.7%, though, and he surrendered home runs at a higher than average rate (1.71 per nine innings).
The former fifth-round pick has shown excellent control throughout his time in the minor leagues. He missed bats on a decent 11% of his MLB offerings last season. His strikeout and walk profile fits fine at the back of a contending rotation, though his fly-ball oriented approach could give him trouble in a very hitter-friendly home park. Falter doesn’t throw hard and gives up a fair amount of hard contact. That’s been a particular issue with right-handed hitters, who have a .266/.313/.486 line against him in his MLB career.
Sánchez, 26, only has four big league starts to his name. He’s come out of the bullpen 18 times at the MLB level and has logged 52 2/3 innings over the last two seasons. He owns a 5.47 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk marks (20.3% and 10.2%, respectively). On the plus side, he’s racked up grounders on a massive 56.4% of batted balls.
The 6’1″ hurler has spent the bulk of the last two years starting games for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He struggled with walks en route to a 4.68 ERA there in 2021 but had a much more productive showing last season. Over 57 1/3 innings spanning 15 appearances, the Dominican-born southpaw posted a 3.14 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout percentage, 8.4% walk rate and eye-opening 62% grounder percentage. While Sánchez hasn’t had much MLB success to date, he’s in the back of the rotation and/or long relief mix thanks to his quality Triple-A showing.
Top Prospects
Arguably the top pitching prospect in the game, Painter ranks among the sport’s top 15 minor league talents at Baseball America, ESPN and The Athletic. Armed with an upper-90s fastball, the 6’7″ righty also draws praise from evaluators for a pair of impressive breaking pitches in his slider and curveball. His changeup is viewed as a little behind the rest of his power arsenal but a promising fourth pitch in its own right.
The 13th overall pick in the 2021 draft out of a Florida high school, he traversed three minor league levels last season. In a year split between Low-A, High-A and Double-A, he threw 103 2/3 innings of 1.56 ERA ball, striking out a laughable 38.7% of opponents with just a 6.2% walk rate.
It’s hard to draw up a better first full pro season. Still, Painter won’t turn 20 until April, and he has just five late-season starts in Double-A and zero experience at the top minor league level. Carrying him on the MLB roster from day one would be a risk, though president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said on a few occasions this offseason that it’s not out of the question (link via Andy Jasner of Sports Illustrated).
Abel was Philadelphia’s first-round selection the year before Painter. Also a high school righty, he’s likewise developed into one of the sport’s more talented young arms. Abel split last season between High-A and Double-A, also making just five starts at the latter level. He combined for a 3.90 ERA across 108 1/3 frames with a 27.6% strikeout rate but a 10.6% walk percentage. He’s a consensus top-100 talent but below Painter in the prospect hierarchy, with a little less velocity and a greater need to refine his control. Abel’s a very good prospect and could potentially put himself in the MLB mix midseason, but right now it doesn’t seem like he’ll get immediate consideration for an Opening Day rotation role. Of course, a standout spring performance could potentially change that.
McGarry, a Virginia product, was a fifth-round draftee in 2021. As a college player, he’s older than Painter and Abel. He spent most of the 2022 season as a starter at High-A and Double-A as well but got eight late-season relief outings at Lehigh Valley. McGarry combined for 87 1/3 innings of 3.71 ERA ball in his first full professional season. He punched out an enormous 35.7% of opponents but walked batters at a 14.6% clip. McGarry has had high-octane stuff but inconsistent control dating back to his time in college. He’s a well-regarded prospect in his own right and looks like a great find for the Phils in the fifth round, though he’d need a dramatic improvement in his strike-throwing to factor into the MLB rotation this year. A midseason bullpen debut might be more likely.
Minor League Depth
Acquired in a minor league trade that sent catcher Austin Wynns to the Giants last summer, Plassmeyer cracked the 40-man roster in August. He’d been hit hard in Triple-A with San Francisco but seemed to turn the corner in the Philadelphia organization. Over 16 starts for Lehigh Valley, the former fourth-round draftee posted a 2.41 ERA across 82 innings. He had some strand rate and BABIP help but also struck out 24.8% of opponents against a 7% walk rate. That’s enough to get Plassmeyer on the MLB radar, but he’d struggled significantly with walks and home runs on the road to a 7.38 ERA over 11 appearances with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate prior to the trade.
McArthur made 13 starts for Double-A Reading last season before suffering a stress reaction in his throwing elbow. He struck out a quarter of opponents at that level but issued walks at a higher than average 10% clip. Over 57 innings, he managed a 5.05 ERA in a hitter-friendly home environment. McArthur’s 26 and has still yet to reach Triple-A. That he’s still holding a 40-man roster spot suggests the Phils still like his upside, though he’d presumably need to earn an MLB look with a strong showing in Lehigh Valley and might fit better in the bullpen regardless.
———————–
The Phillies figure to bring a few more arms to camp as non-roster Spring Training invitees. Philadelphia added Kyle Hart on a minor league deal this afternoon, while Hans Crouse remains in the organization after clearing outright waivers last November. It’s possible the front office looks for another starter with some MLB experience who’s willing to accept an NRI.
Unless the Phils surprisingly add Michael Wacha or pivot to the trade market, however, it’s unlikely anyone they bring in at this point would get an immediate MLB rotation job. The organization looks prepared to put a lot of faith in their highly-touted prospects, especially Painter. Whether that’ll be the case from day one is to be determined, with Falter and Sánchez in position to vie for key roles if the Phils determine more minor league time is necessary for their vaunted young arms.
Big Hype Prospects: Painter, Graceffo, Herrera, Thomas, Wesneski
My Rule 5 coverage didn’t go to plan. While I successfully tabbed first overall pick Thad Ward, he was the only Rule 5 eligible player chosen of the 25 we evaluated. Ryan Noda was left off due to his age. All the others chosen were not on my radar.
With the Winter Meetings behind us, we’ll swing into full offseason mode here at Big Hype Prospects with a focus on young players affected by recent news.
Five BHPs In The News
Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 103.2 IP, 13.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.56 ERA
The Phillies had what can only be described as a successful Winter Meetings, checking off all three boxes on their offseason wishlist. With Taijuan Walker joining the rotation, the club reportedly intends to leave the fifth slot as a battle between Bailey Falter and their stable of prospects. Though he’s younger than Mick Abel, Griff McGarry, and other candidates, Painter is under consideration for an early-season rotation role. He turns 20 shortly after Opening Day. While Falter is the odds-on favorite for the fifth slot, that assumes no preseason injuries to their planned rotation.
Painter carried an unusually large workload for a teenager including two late-season outings of 26 or more batters faced. He made short work of three minor league levels. He gives every appearance of Major League readiness, though a stint in Triple-A might prove beneficial.
Gordon Graceffo, 22, SP, STL (AA)
(A+/AA) 139.1 IP, 9.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 2.97 ERA
The Cardinals pursuit of a catcher ended with the signing of Willson Contreras. In negotiations with the Athletics for Sean Murphy, Oakland apparently requested Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Graceffo. The right-hander has an effective four-pitch repertoire coupled with above-average command. While the details differ, this is basically the same starter kit as Zac Gallen – a deep array or weapons with the means to use them all effectively. Graceffo ran into some speed bumps in Double-A, posting a 3.94 ERA with a 5.07 FIP in 18 starts. He’s on pace to debut in late-2023 or at some point in 2024.
Ivan Herrera, 22, C, STL (AAA)
278 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .268/.374/.394
Long considered the heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera isn’t quite far enough along in his development for the Cardinals to hand him the keys. He looked overmatched in a tiny 22 plate appearance Major League sample. While the acquisition of Contreras could render him expendable, the Cardinals have resisted trading touted prospects in recent seasons. It’s entirely plausible St. Louis will treat Contreras as an expensive stopgap to be traded if ever Herrera surpasses him. Herrera draws mixed reviews for his defense with most reports considering him below-average but passable. His athleticism suggests he could be a late bloomer behind the dish. Plate discipline and contact skills are his carrying traits as a hitter. Though he’s no slouch in the power department, he doesn’t hold a candle to Contreras’ exit velocities.
Alek Thomas, 22, OF, ARI (MLB)
411 PA, 8 HR, 4 SB, .231/.275/.344
No longer technically a prospect by the prevailing definition, Thomas is nevertheless prospect-aged and sufficiently talented. His Major League debut didn’t go to plan, but he held his own thanks to positive defense and baserunning. Thomas’ batted ball profile is built for generating high-BABIPs and batting averages, but he slumped to a .263 BABIP in the big leagues. Part of his minor league success included plus plate discipline. He was below average in this regard in his debut, a sign he didn’t adjust well to sharp scouting reports.
Arizona’s outfielders will be in-demand all winter long, especially once the remaining quality free agents like Andrew Benintendi and Michael Conforto sign.
Hayden Wesneski, 25, SP, CHC (MLB)
(AAA) 110.1 IP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.92 ERA
The Cubs signed Jameson Taillon last week and were reportedly among the finalists for Kodai Senga before he signed with the Mets. Their focus on upgrading the rotation could leave Wesneski without an Opening Day role in the Majors. Acquired in the Scott Effross trade, Wesneski finished 2022 with a lovely 33-inning stint with Chicago. He pitched to a 2.18 ERA with a 3.20 FIP. Wesneski wields a five-pitch repertoire of three fastballs, a slider, and a changeup. They bleed together in a way that stymies hitters despite a lack of overpowering stuff. One scout I spoke with believes the Cubs are better suited than the Yankees to get the most from his particular approach. Whether or not Wesneski opens in the rotation, he is an important part of the club’s 2023 plans.
Five More
Ryan Noda, OAK (26): The second overall pick in the Rule 5 draft, Noda is highly likely to slot into the Athletics lineup and never look back. He’s been among the top minor league performers for his entire career. Notably, he has always been old for his levels. He uses discipline as a weapon and has made steady gains in other facets of his game over the years. He even steals bases, though nobody will confuse him for a speedster. Think of him as vaguely similar to a more athletic Dan Vogelbach.
Dominic Fletcher, ARI (25): Though not nearly of the same pedigree as their other in-house options, Fletcher looks the part of a second-division starter or adequate fourth outfielder. He’s slowed to the point that center field is no longer a fit, and his modest power isn’t ideal for a corner outfield role. His batted profile yields high BABIPs, and his discipline improved last season. He could be a draw in trade discussions, and Arizona shouldn’t mind shopping him given their depth.
Keyshawn Askew, TBR (22): True to his name, Askew brings the funk from the left side. Acquired in the Brooks Raley deal, Askew profiles as a likely future reliever who seems destined to flummox hitters for years to come. He throws a sinker and slider out of a quirky sidearm armslot. The Rays love to collect unusual pitchers. There’s yet a chance they keep him stretched out as a starter.
Michael Busch, LAD (25): An accomplished minor league hitter, Busch has slow-burned through the Dodgers system. He’s considered a poor defensive second baseman but might get a chance there nonetheless due to the club’s intention to stay out of Carlos Correa’s market. He hit .266/.343/.480 (102 wRC+) with 21 home runs in 504 Triple-A plate appearances last season.
Jacob Amaya, LAD (24): Amaya is a more defensively able option at second base if Gavin Lux is indeed shifted to shortstop on a full-time basis. After torching Double-A pitching, Amaya was merely decent at Triple-A. He’s shown consistently above-average discipline but there’s often a notable lack of impact when he connects. For a team with Dodgers standards, he looks more like a utility man than a starter. Lesser clubs might happily count him as a regular.
Big Hype Prospects: Quero, Carter, Graceffo, Painter, Amador
This week on Big Hype Prospects, we take a look at some precocious youngsters in the upper minors.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Edgar Quero, 19, C, LAA (A)
515 PA, 17 HR, 12 SB, .312/.435/.530
Recently selected as the Angels Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America, Quero has surged in the Angels system and likely ranks as their second-best farmhand behind Logan O’Hoppe. For what it’s worth, Baseball America’s midseason update has Quero behind O’Hoppe, Zach Neto, and Ky Bush, but it’s pretty clear to me that he’s since leapfrogged at least Bush.
Quero progressed considerably both offensively and defensively this season. He’s now viewed as likely to not only remain a catcher but to do so as a quality defender. As a hitter, he’s a consistent contact machine with advanced plate discipline for his age. He has a knack for finding gaps (35 doubles, two triples) and could grow into more home run power as he ages. For a 19-year-old with non-elite power (by scouting grade), hitting 17 dingers is a lovely platform. His 8.4 percent swinging strike rate is superior to most teenagers – even those that eventually go on to post high rates of contact. His 12 steals have come in 17 attempts, a sign he might not run much as he advances.
One tiny detail that will often be missed in surface-level analysis – Quero was hit by pitch 21 times. Among Major Leaguers, only Willson Contreras (23) has been hit by more than 20 pitches this season. While Quero’s OBP captures this trait, his walk rate does not. He’s listed as having a 14.2 percent walk rate and 17.7 percent strikeout rate. He actually has 94 walks plus hit-by-pitches compared to 91 strikeouts. It’s debatable whether this is a good trait for a minor leaguer since bean balls lead to injuries.
Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
(A+) 447 PA, 11 HR, 26 SB, .287/.388/.476
Carter, a second-round pick in the weird 2020 draft, was on track to jump onto Top 100 lists last season before a season-ending stress fracture in his back ended his campaign. While that may sound ominous, it’s a simple injury to maintain via core exercises. He spent the bulk of 2022 in High-A, earning a late-season promotion to Double-A in order to continue his season. Per Baseball America, he now ranks above Josh Jung as the Rangers top farm hand.
Carter is frequently praised for his swing decisions, but scouting reports often take time to focus on his weaknesses too. He has the size and physicality of a power hitter. His swing is thought to be prone to ground ball contact, though that didn’t show up in his incredibly balanced batted ball profile in High-A. He’s a capable center fielder whom multiple evaluators comp to Brandon Nimmo due to the discerning eye, a similar left-handed swing, and game power that is expected to underperform his stature. That said, the Rangers are sometimes criticized for asking their prospects to max out on power. Don’t sleep on the potential for 20-or-more homer upside once he’s in his 20s. His max exit velocity is already above the Major League average.
Gordon Graceffo, 22, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 93.2 IP, 7.98 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 3.94 ERA
Graceffo opened 2022 in High-A. In eight starts (45.2 innings), he chewed through the level with a 0.99 ERA, 11.04 K/9, and 0.79 BB/9. He’s performed more ordinarily at Double-A. A 5.07 FIP suggests he’s even struggled a bit more than his ERA portends. He’s performed particularly well of late. In 16.2 innings this month, he’s allowed no runs, five hits, two walks, and two hit batters with 22 strikeouts. His latest start began with five perfect innings before he allowed a hit in the sixth. Unlike most pitching prospects in their second pro season, he’s carried a fairly substantial workload of 139.1 innings. For perspective, only 56 big leaguers have thrown more frames. He also rates 10th among minor leaguers.
He possesses a four-pitch repertoire of above-average offerings complemented with average or better command. In essence, this is the Zac Gallen starter kit. The FanGraphs report mentions the shape of his fastball plays down. Basically, it’s contact-prone and won’t necessarily limit the quality of said contact. This appears to be an organizational shortcoming with the Cardinals – whether by choice, happenstance, or some other reason.
Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (AA)
24.1 IP, 11.84 K/9, 0.74 BB/9, 1.11 ERA
Painter is a candidate to claim the mantle of top minor league pitcher once Grayson Rodriguez matriculates. In a past episode of BHP, I compared Painter to Spencer Strider due to what might play as a two-pitch repertoire. Reports have since surfaced that he’s gained confidence in an improved changeup. I also failed to account for their difference in stature – Painter is seven inches taller which greatly affects the shape of his fastball.
While he hasn’t induced quite as many swinging strikes as Strider did through his ascent, Painter has shown better command and pitchability. Given his early success in Double-A following 17 dominant starts in A-ball, he could be on track to debut in 2023. It’s rare for pitchers to reach the Show in their age 20 season. In fact, the youngest pitchers in the Majors this season are 22, though Luis Patino was 20 when he debuted. He even set a season-high of 27 batters faced on September 3, more than most big leaguers face in a start.
Adael Amador, 19, SS, COL (A)
555 PA , 15 HR, 26 SB, .292/.415/.445
Similarly to Quero, Amador remained in Low-A all season where he was able to focus on making modest improvements without being overmatched. He’s seen as a high-probability shortstop prospect who recorded more walks than strikeouts, makes a ton of contact, and isn’t a complete zero in the power department. He hits too much pulled, ground ball contact, but he has plenty of time to make adjustments. Excellent plate discipline is an important and underrated ingredient when it comes to altering a young player’s batted ball profile. While some scouting reports suggest he’ll shift to second base down the line, my own interpretation is that this isn’t strictly necessary. Defensively, he might fit best as a first-division utility man capable of suiting up all over the diamond. Not to say that he’s similar to Chris Taylor, but that role would be an excellent use of Amador’s talents.
Five More
Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): Like Carter, Chourio earned a promotion to Double-A mostly in order to continue his season. Thus far, he’s just 1-for-11 with three walks and four strikeouts. He’s also just 18-and-a-half, eight months the junior of the next-youngest hitter at the level (see next). If he can salvage a strong finish, he might be on pace to arrive in the Majors as a teenager.
Deyvison De Los Santos, ARI (19): Another promotee for the purpose of extending his season, De Los Santos flashed through Low- and High-A this season while bashing 21 home runs and posting some gaudy BABIPs. Those helped to hide swing-and-miss issues with his approach that at times evokes Pedro Cerrano. Plate discipline remains an ongoing issue for the potent teenager.
Francisco Alvarez, NYM (20): Recently sidelined with a loose body in his ankle, Alvarez returned to action a few days ago. He launched a home run on Tuesday. The Mets have gotten next to no offense from their catchers and might be willing to take desperate measures as the Braves nip at their heels in the NL East race.
Tink Hence, STL (20): Profiled in detail last week, Hence made a third straight scoreless start. He even faced a career-high 16 batters. The Cardinals continue to carefully manage his innings this season, combining short starts with a full week between outings.
Chase Silseth, LAA (22): Though he’s made seven big league appearances spanning 28.2 innings (6.59 ERA), Silseth has yet to appear in Triple-A. The 22-year-old has pitched excellently in Double-A with a 2.28 ERA, 11.93 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, and a flashy 17.8 percent swinging strike rate. He delivered a six-inning scoreless outing on Thursday with nine strikeouts for the Rocket City Trash Pandas.
Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Walker, Holliday, Lee, Painter
This week on Big Hype Prospects, we check in with a couple recently-promoted Major Leaguers, peek at a couple more on the cusp, and introduce ourselves to some hot-hitting 2022 draftees.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Vaughn Grissom, 21, 2B/SS, ATL (MLB)
35 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .406/.457/.656
Grissom was just playing his way into consensus Top 100 status when the Braves tabbed him for a Major League promotion instead. He had just 98 plate appearances in Double-A after spending much of the season in High-A (344 PA, 11 HR, 20 SB, .312/.404/.487). His numbers have actually improved slightly at each stop. As many have noted (unpleasant noise warning), he’s the second player the Braves have skipped straight past Triple-A. Of course, 35 plate appearances is hardly the basis for Major League success – the true challenge is proving the ability to counter-adjust once the league figures him out. We might not get to that point since Ozzie Albies is approaching a rehab assignment. Grissom will probably hold down the fort until then.
His arrival also has long-term implications. He mostly played shortstop in the minors. So too did Albies back in the day. The club could be using this opportunity to further their postseason bid by using a more dynamic player than Ehire Adrianza while at the same time assessing if a shortstop signing is an urgent need this winter. If they like what they see from Grissom, the Braves might opt to target a lesser free agent like Jose Iglesias or even skip the market altogether.
Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
430 PA, 15 HR, 17 SB, .310/.393/.522
On Thursday, Walker had his third double-dinger game since July 29. He appears to have accomplished all that he can in Double-A by both improving upon his walk and strikeout rates while continuing to punish the baseball. One of the big impending storylines of free agency is Nolan Arenado’s player option decision. Will he stay or hit the open market? Judging by the ascendancy of Walker, St. Louis might be alright with letting Arenado walk. After all, they can always use Nolan Gorman at third base if Walker isn’t ready in early 2023.
There are still some issues with Walker’s game hidden underneath the beautiful surface level stats. For one, he has a 16.1 percent swinging strike rate. That’s roughly on par with Adolis Garcia, Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, and Patrick Wisdom – not exactly the most contact-oriented collection of batters. Moreover, Walker has these whiff issues while running a 45 percent ground ball rate. One of the “tricks” for striking out less is to flatten a swing plane. That adds grounders at the expense of fly balls. Walker has nothing left to give on that front. For what it’s worth, some of the next guys up on the swinging strike rate list are Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Rafael Devers, and Byron Buxton. Stars can sometimes have whiff problems without dreadful strikeout rates.
Jackson Holliday, 18, SS, BAL (CPX)
6-for-15, 1 HR, 1 SB, 5 BB, 1 K
The number one overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday arrived with a bang in the complex league this week. He hit his first professional home run on Friday and has a five-to-one walk-to-strikeout ratio. MLB Pipeline already rates him the 14th-best prospect in the league – an aggressive ranking compared with the recent updates from Baseball America (39) and Keith Law (42). Scouting notes on Holliday remain sparse, mostly focusing on his excellent pre-draft conditioning as well as a need to see him against more advanced competition. With the way he’s playing in his first week, a promotion could come soon.
Brooks Lee, 21, SS, MIN (A+)
30 PA, 1 HR, .333/.400/.444
Another recent first-round draftee, Lee made short work of the complex league. The Twins liked his hit tool so much they assigned him straight to High-A. There, he’s more than held his own albeit with more swing-and-miss than expected. Given the aggressive assignment – nearly every player in High-A has years rather than a few scant weeks of professional experience – Lee’s early success is encouraging. Law believes Lee “is the ne plus ultra” of fast-moving college draftees, meaning we could see him broach the Majors as early as next season. Law also considers a move to third base likely while other sources think Lee can stick at shortstop so long as he’s well-positioned.
The ”fast-mover” middle infield profile typically consists of a near-elite hit tool and nonexistent power. Think Nick Madrigal. Lee’s power is more aptly described as nascent. He’s expect to grow into 10 to 20 home runs annually to go with a disciplined, high-average approach.
Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (A+)
(A+) 36.2 IP, 12.03 K/9, 1.72 BB/9, 0.98 ERA
Last week, we covered Ricky Tiedemann in this spot. Many of the same superlatives apply to Painter. He’s the same age as Tiedemann and rapidly ascending towards Top 10 prospect status. He’s one of the best pitchers left in the minors. At present, Painter has a fastball-slider combo that evokes Spencer Strider. Painter lives upstairs with 98-mph heat then drops sharp sliders into the strike zone. Scouting reports indicate his ability to locate the slider outside of the zone is still a work in progress as are the development of a curve and changeup. Given Strider’s success with the same toolkit, Painter might just find his way to the Majors next season as a two-pitch 20-year-old.
Five More
Josh Jung, TEX (24): Last week, we noted Jung’s successful return to Triple-A. Since then, he’s gone 10-for-20 with four home runs, three doubles, two walks, and a strikeout. A promotion should come any day now.
Sal Frelick, MIL (22): Speaking of hot bats, Frelick is hitting .440/.525/.540 through his first 60 Triple-A plate appearances with more walks than strikeouts. The Brewers have fallen three games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central and two games back of the Phillies in the Wild Card race. Milwaukee could consider taking a page from the Braves by promoting Frelick before he’s ticked all the usual developmental boxes. Center field and leadoff hitter are their biggest areas of need. Frelick profiles as Steven Kwan-like.
Brayan Bello, BOS (23): Bello is slated to make a rehab start at Triple-A on Friday. If all goes well, he could return to the Majors in short order. While it’s trendy to count the Red Sox out of the playoff hunt, they’re only five games behind the Rays and Jays. They’re six back of the Mariners. A recovery is certainly possible. Bello, with his domineering stuff and over-60 percent ground ball rate, could be an important piece if Boston is to salvage their season.
Kerry Carpenter, DET (24): A late-bloomer who only started generating hype this season, Carpenter thrashed the upper-minors for 30 home runs in 400 plate appearances. He’s since tacked on two dingers in 25 Major League plate appearances. As expected, he’s shown signs of below average plate discipline and a modest swinging-strike issue in his small sample of big league experience. Overall, his debut has been a rousing success to date so the Tigers have every reason to continue trotting him out on a daily basis.
Marcelo Mayer, BOS, (19): In recent years, we’ve been spoiled with precocious play from young, top prospects. Of all the Top 10 prospect candidates, we’ve had the least to say about Mayer in this column. The long and short of it is he’s having a typical season for a prospect of his age and repute. He hasn’t done anything jaw-dropping while at the same time assuring onlookers of his eventual role as a Major League shortstop of some quality. Personally (remember, I’m not a scout), I see similarities to J.P. Crawford with eventual power outcomes being a tad more accessible/plausible. Since a recent promotion to High-A, he’s hitting .243/.333/.405 in 42 plate appearances.