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Andrew Painter

Phillies’ Andrew Painter Undergoing Testing On Elbow

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TODAY: An update on Painter will come Sunday or Monday rather than today, Thomson told reporters (including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer).  The manager said Painter “is in good spirits,” but Thomson otherwise declined to give details on the nature of the testing or whether or not Painter or the team are looking for a second opinion.

MARCH 3: Phillies right-hander Andrew Painter, arguably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, reported feeling “tenderness” in his elbow and has been sent for testing, manager Rob Thomson announced to reporters Friday (link via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). The skipper did not provide further specifics on the type of tests being performed or the organization’s level of concern. More information is expected to be provided tomorrow.

Just 19 years old, Painter was the No. 13 overall pick in the 2021 draft and has soared through the Phillies’ system to the cusp of MLB readiness in less than two years’ time. He pitched across three levels in 2022 — Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A — working to a combined 1.56 ERA with a massive 38.7% strikeout rate, a strong 6.2% walk rate and a tiny 0.43 HR/9 mark through 103 2/3 frames. Both Baseball America and MLB.com rank Painter as the game’s best pitching prospect and one of the top six overall prospects in the sport.

Despite his youth and lack of Triple-A seasoning, Painter was vying for a spot in the Phillies’ Opening Day rotation. Philadelphia currently has Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez and offseason signee Taijuan Walker locked into spots, but Painter has been competing with Bailey Falter (among others) for the fifth and final place in Thomson’s rotation. He just made his Grapefruit League debut earlier in the week, tossing a pair of innings against the Twins and allowing a run on three hits and no walks with one strikeout. Painter tossed 29 pitches in that outing, regularly hitting 99 mph with his heater.

[Related: The Phillies’ Fifth Starter Possibilities]

There’s little sense in speculating as to what type of injury, if any, Painter may be battling. The Phillies are concerned enough to send him for testing of some degree, which is cause for obvious trepidation among the fan base. Then again, it should be emphasized that it behooves the Phillies to proceed with as much caution as possible, given Painter’s upside and long-term value to the club. To this point, there’s no indication that the team expects a serious injury to be at play.

If Painter were to miss time, be it a brief shutdown in camp or a stay on the injured list once the season is underway, Falter’s grip on the final rotation spot would likely tighten. The 25-year-old appeared in 20 games with the Phils last year, 16 of them starts, and pitched to a solid 3.86 ERA through 84 frames. Falter’s 21.2% strikeout rate was a bit below average, but his 4.9% walk rate was among the best in baseball — tied for 20th-best among the 159 pitchers who tossed at least 80 innings.

The Phillies’ Fifth Starter Possibilities

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The Phillies had a bit of shuffling in the middle of their rotation this offseason. Each of Zach Eflin, Noah Syndergaard and Kyle Gibson went elsewhere in free agency. Philadelphia partially backfilled the starting staff by bringing Taijuan Walker aboard, but they focused the rest of their offseason attention on installing Trea Turner atop the lineup and stockpiling bullpen help.

Philadelphia has one of baseball’s best one-two punch atop the rotation in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Walker steps into the third or fourth role, pairing with southpaw Ranger Suárez in the middle. Losing Eflin and Gibson thins out the depth at the back end, leaving the Phils to rely on someone without much starting experience at the big league level in the #5 role.

Turning to those possibilities:

Some MLB Rotation Work

Bailey Falter

Falter, a 25-year-old lefty, made 16 starts out of 20 outings for the Phils last year. That came on the heels of a rookie campaign in which he was used almost exclusively out of the bullpen and posted a 5.61 ERA. Falter had a better run prevention mark last season, allowing just 3.86 earned runs per nine innings. Falter struck out a roughly average 21.2% of opponents and kept his walks to a sparkling 4.9% clip last season. His ground-ball percentage dropped from 36.1% as a rookie to 31.7%, though, and he surrendered home runs at a higher than average rate (1.71 per nine innings).

The former fifth-round pick has shown excellent control throughout his time in the minor leagues. He missed bats on a decent 11% of his MLB offerings last season. His strikeout and walk profile fits fine at the back of a contending rotation, though his fly-ball oriented approach could give him trouble in a very hitter-friendly home park. Falter doesn’t throw hard and gives up a fair amount of hard contact. That’s been a particular issue with right-handed hitters, who have a .266/.313/.486 line against him in his MLB career.

Cristopher Sánchez

Sánchez, 26, only has four big league starts to his name. He’s come out of the bullpen 18 times at the MLB level and has logged 52 2/3 innings over the last two seasons. He owns a 5.47 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk marks (20.3% and 10.2%, respectively). On the plus side, he’s racked up grounders on a massive 56.4% of batted balls.

The 6’1″ hurler has spent the bulk of the last two years starting games for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He struggled with walks en route to a 4.68 ERA there in 2021 but had a much more productive showing last season. Over 57 1/3 innings spanning 15 appearances, the Dominican-born southpaw posted a 3.14 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout percentage, 8.4% walk rate and eye-opening 62% grounder percentage. While Sánchez hasn’t had much MLB success to date, he’s in the back of the rotation and/or long relief mix thanks to his quality Triple-A showing.

Top Prospects

Andrew Painter

Arguably the top pitching prospect in the game, Painter ranks among the sport’s top 15 minor league talents at Baseball America, ESPN and The Athletic. Armed with an upper-90s fastball, the 6’7″ righty also draws praise from evaluators for a pair of impressive breaking pitches in his slider and curveball. His changeup is viewed as a little behind the rest of his power arsenal but a promising fourth pitch in its own right.

The 13th overall pick in the 2021 draft out of a Florida high school, he traversed three minor league levels last season. In a year split between Low-A, High-A and Double-A, he threw 103 2/3 innings of 1.56 ERA ball, striking out a laughable 38.7% of opponents with just a 6.2% walk rate.

It’s hard to draw up a better first full pro season. Still, Painter won’t turn 20 until April, and he has just five late-season starts in Double-A and zero experience at the top minor league level. Carrying him on the MLB roster from day one would be a risk, though president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said on a few occasions this offseason that it’s not out of the question (link via Andy Jasner of Sports Illustrated).

Mick Abel

Abel was Philadelphia’s first-round selection the year before Painter. Also a high school righty, he’s likewise developed into one of the sport’s more talented young arms. Abel split last season between High-A and Double-A, also making just five starts at the latter level. He combined for a 3.90 ERA across 108 1/3 frames with a 27.6% strikeout rate but a 10.6% walk percentage. He’s a consensus top-100 talent but below Painter in the prospect hierarchy, with a little less velocity and a greater need to refine his control. Abel’s a very good prospect and could potentially put himself in the MLB mix midseason, but right now it doesn’t seem like he’ll get immediate consideration for an Opening Day rotation role. Of course, a standout spring performance could potentially change that.

Griff McGarry

McGarry, a Virginia product, was a fifth-round draftee in 2021. As a college player, he’s older than Painter and Abel. He spent most of the 2022 season as a starter at High-A and Double-A as well but got eight late-season relief outings at Lehigh Valley. McGarry combined for 87 1/3 innings of 3.71 ERA ball in his first full professional season. He punched out an enormous 35.7% of opponents but walked batters at a 14.6% clip. McGarry has had high-octane stuff but inconsistent control dating back to his time in college. He’s a well-regarded prospect in his own right and looks like a great find for the Phils in the fifth round, though he’d need a dramatic improvement in his strike-throwing to factor into the MLB rotation this year. A midseason bullpen debut might be more likely.

Minor League Depth

Michael Plassmeyer

Acquired in a minor league trade that sent catcher Austin Wynns to the Giants last summer, Plassmeyer cracked the 40-man roster in August. He’d been hit hard in Triple-A with San Francisco but seemed to turn the corner in the Philadelphia organization. Over 16 starts for Lehigh Valley, the former fourth-round draftee posted a 2.41 ERA across 82 innings. He had some strand rate and BABIP help but also struck out 24.8% of opponents against a 7% walk rate. That’s enough to get Plassmeyer on the MLB radar, but he’d struggled significantly with walks and home runs on the road to a 7.38 ERA over 11 appearances with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate prior to the trade.

James McArthur

McArthur made 13 starts for Double-A Reading last season before suffering a stress reaction in his throwing elbow. He struck out a quarter of opponents at that level but issued walks at a higher than average 10% clip. Over 57 innings, he managed a 5.05 ERA in a hitter-friendly home environment. McArthur’s 26 and has still yet to reach Triple-A. That he’s still holding a 40-man roster spot suggests the Phils still like his upside, though he’d presumably need to earn an MLB look with a strong showing in Lehigh Valley and might fit better in the bullpen regardless.

———————–

The Phillies figure to bring a few more arms to camp as non-roster Spring Training invitees. Philadelphia added Kyle Hart on a minor league deal this afternoon, while Hans Crouse remains in the organization after clearing outright waivers last November. It’s possible the front office looks for another starter with some MLB experience who’s willing to accept an NRI.

Unless the Phils surprisingly add Michael Wacha or pivot to the trade market, however, it’s unlikely anyone they bring in at this point would get an immediate MLB rotation job. The organization looks prepared to put a lot of faith in their highly-touted prospects, especially Painter. Whether that’ll be the case from day one is to be determined, with Falter and Sánchez in position to vie for key roles if the Phils determine more minor league time is necessary for their vaunted young arms.

Big Hype Prospects: Painter, Graceffo, Herrera, Thomas, Wesneski

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My Rule 5 coverage didn’t go to plan. While I successfully tabbed first overall pick Thad Ward, he was the only Rule 5 eligible player chosen of the 25 we evaluated. Ryan Noda was left off due to his age. All the others chosen were not on my radar.

With the Winter Meetings behind us, we’ll swing into full offseason mode here at Big Hype Prospects with a focus on young players affected by recent news.

Five BHPs In The News

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 103.2 IP, 13.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.56 ERA

The Phillies had what can only be described as a successful Winter Meetings, checking off all three boxes on their offseason wishlist. With Taijuan Walker joining the rotation, the club reportedly intends to leave the fifth slot as a battle between Bailey Falter and their stable of prospects. Though he’s younger than Mick Abel, Griff McGarry, and other candidates, Painter is under consideration for an early-season rotation role. He turns 20 shortly after Opening Day. While Falter is the odds-on favorite for the fifth slot, that assumes no preseason injuries to their planned rotation.

Painter carried an unusually large workload for a teenager including two late-season outings of 26 or more batters faced. He made short work of three minor league levels. He gives every appearance of Major League readiness, though a stint in Triple-A might prove beneficial.

Gordon Graceffo, 22, SP, STL (AA)
(A+/AA) 139.1 IP, 9.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 2.97 ERA

The Cardinals pursuit of a catcher ended with the signing of Willson Contreras. In negotiations with the Athletics for Sean Murphy, Oakland apparently requested Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Graceffo. The right-hander has an effective four-pitch repertoire coupled with above-average command. While the details differ, this is basically the same starter kit as Zac Gallen – a deep array or weapons with the means to use them all effectively. Graceffo ran into some speed bumps in Double-A, posting a 3.94 ERA with a 5.07 FIP in 18 starts. He’s on pace to debut in late-2023 or at some point in 2024.

Ivan Herrera, 22, C, STL (AAA)
278 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .268/.374/.394

Long considered the heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera isn’t quite far enough along in his development for the Cardinals to hand him the keys. He looked overmatched in a tiny 22 plate appearance Major League sample. While the acquisition of Contreras could render him expendable, the Cardinals have resisted trading touted prospects in recent seasons. It’s entirely plausible St. Louis will treat Contreras as an expensive stopgap to be traded if ever Herrera surpasses him. Herrera draws mixed reviews for his defense with most reports considering him below-average but passable. His athleticism suggests he could be a late bloomer behind the dish. Plate discipline and contact skills are his carrying traits as a hitter. Though he’s no slouch in the power department, he doesn’t hold a candle to Contreras’ exit velocities.

Alek Thomas, 22, OF, ARI (MLB)
411 PA, 8 HR, 4 SB, .231/.275/.344

No longer technically a prospect by the prevailing definition, Thomas is nevertheless prospect-aged and sufficiently talented. His Major League debut didn’t go to plan, but he held his own thanks to positive defense and baserunning. Thomas’ batted ball profile is built for generating high-BABIPs and batting averages, but he slumped to a .263 BABIP in the big leagues. Part of his minor league success included plus plate discipline. He was below average in this regard in his debut, a sign he didn’t adjust well to sharp scouting reports.

Arizona’s outfielders will be in-demand all winter long, especially once the remaining quality free agents like Andrew Benintendi and Michael Conforto sign.

Hayden Wesneski, 25, SP, CHC (MLB)
(AAA) 110.1 IP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.92 ERA

The Cubs signed Jameson Taillon last week and were reportedly among the finalists for Kodai Senga before he signed with the Mets. Their focus on upgrading the rotation could leave Wesneski without an Opening Day role in the Majors. Acquired in the Scott Effross trade, Wesneski finished 2022 with a lovely 33-inning stint with Chicago. He pitched to a 2.18 ERA with a 3.20 FIP. Wesneski wields a five-pitch repertoire of three fastballs, a slider, and a changeup. They bleed together in a way that stymies hitters despite a lack of overpowering stuff. One scout I spoke with believes the Cubs are better suited than the Yankees to get the most from his particular approach. Whether or not Wesneski opens in the rotation, he is an important part of the club’s 2023 plans.

Five More

Ryan Noda, OAK (26): The second overall pick in the Rule 5 draft, Noda is highly likely to slot into the Athletics lineup and never look back. He’s been among the top minor league performers for his entire career. Notably, he has always been old for his levels. He uses discipline as a weapon and has made steady gains in other facets of his game over the years. He even steals bases, though nobody will confuse him for a speedster. Think of him as vaguely similar to a more athletic Dan Vogelbach.

Dominic Fletcher, ARI (25): Though not nearly of the same pedigree as their other in-house options, Fletcher looks the part of a second-division starter or adequate fourth outfielder. He’s slowed to the point that center field is no longer a fit, and his modest power isn’t ideal for a corner outfield role. His batted profile yields high BABIPs, and his discipline improved last season. He could be a draw in trade discussions, and Arizona shouldn’t mind shopping him given their depth.

Keyshawn Askew, TBR (22): True to his name, Askew brings the funk from the left side. Acquired in the Brooks Raley deal, Askew profiles as a likely future reliever who seems destined to flummox hitters for years to come. He throws a sinker and slider out of a quirky sidearm armslot. The Rays love to collect unusual pitchers. There’s yet a chance they keep him stretched out as a starter.

Michael Busch, LAD (25): An accomplished minor league hitter, Busch has slow-burned through the Dodgers system. He’s considered a poor defensive second baseman but might get a chance there nonetheless due to the club’s intention to stay out of Carlos Correa’s market. He hit .266/.343/.480 (102 wRC+) with 21 home runs in 504 Triple-A plate appearances last season.

Jacob Amaya, LAD (24): Amaya is a more defensively able option at second base if Gavin Lux is indeed shifted to shortstop on a full-time basis. After torching Double-A pitching, Amaya was merely decent at Triple-A. He’s shown consistently above-average discipline but there’s often a notable lack of impact when he connects. For a team with Dodgers standards, he looks more like a utility man than a starter. Lesser clubs might happily count him as a regular.

Big Hype Prospects: Quero, Carter, Graceffo, Painter, Amador

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we take a look at some precocious youngsters in the upper minors.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Edgar Quero, 19, C, LAA (A)
515 PA, 17 HR, 12 SB, .312/.435/.530

Recently selected as the Angels Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America, Quero has surged in the Angels system and likely ranks as their second-best farmhand behind Logan O’Hoppe. For what it’s worth, Baseball America’s midseason update has Quero behind O’Hoppe, Zach Neto, and Ky Bush, but it’s pretty clear to me that he’s since leapfrogged at least Bush.

Quero progressed considerably both offensively and defensively this season. He’s now viewed as likely to not only remain a catcher but to do so as a quality defender. As a hitter, he’s a consistent contact machine with advanced plate discipline for his age. He has a knack for finding gaps (35 doubles, two triples) and could grow into more home run power as he ages. For a 19-year-old with non-elite power (by scouting grade), hitting 17 dingers is a lovely platform. His 8.4 percent swinging strike rate is superior to most teenagers – even those that eventually go on to post high rates of contact. His 12 steals have come in 17 attempts, a sign he might not run much as he advances.

One tiny detail that will often be missed in surface-level analysis – Quero was hit by pitch 21 times. Among Major Leaguers, only Willson Contreras (23) has been hit by more than 20 pitches this season. While Quero’s OBP captures this trait, his walk rate does not. He’s listed as having a 14.2 percent walk rate and 17.7 percent strikeout rate. He actually has 94 walks plus hit-by-pitches compared to 91 strikeouts. It’s debatable whether this is a good trait for a minor leaguer since bean balls lead to injuries.

Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
(A+) 447 PA, 11 HR, 26 SB, .287/.388/.476

Carter, a second-round pick in the weird 2020 draft, was on track to jump onto Top 100 lists last season before a season-ending stress fracture in his back ended his campaign. While that may sound ominous, it’s a simple injury to maintain via core exercises. He spent the bulk of 2022 in High-A, earning a late-season promotion to Double-A in order to continue his season. Per Baseball America, he now ranks above Josh Jung as the Rangers top farm hand.

Carter is frequently praised for his swing decisions, but scouting reports often take time to focus on his weaknesses too. He has the size and physicality of a power hitter. His swing is thought to be prone to ground ball contact, though that didn’t show up in his incredibly balanced batted ball profile in High-A. He’s a capable center fielder whom multiple evaluators comp to Brandon Nimmo due to the discerning eye, a similar left-handed swing, and game power that is expected to underperform his stature. That said, the Rangers are sometimes criticized for asking their prospects to max out on power. Don’t sleep on the potential for 20-or-more homer upside once he’s in his 20s. His max exit velocity is already above the Major League average.

Gordon Graceffo, 22, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 93.2 IP, 7.98 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 3.94 ERA

Graceffo opened 2022 in High-A. In eight starts (45.2 innings), he chewed through the level with a 0.99 ERA, 11.04 K/9, and 0.79 BB/9. He’s performed more ordinarily at Double-A. A 5.07 FIP suggests he’s even struggled a bit more than his ERA portends. He’s performed particularly well of late. In 16.2 innings this month, he’s allowed no runs, five hits, two walks, and two hit batters with 22 strikeouts. His latest start began with five perfect innings before he allowed a hit in the sixth. Unlike most pitching prospects in their second pro season, he’s carried a fairly substantial workload of 139.1 innings. For perspective, only 56 big leaguers have thrown more frames. He also rates 10th among minor leaguers.

He possesses a four-pitch repertoire of above-average offerings complemented with average or better command. In essence, this is the Zac Gallen starter kit. The FanGraphs report mentions the shape of his fastball plays down. Basically, it’s contact-prone and won’t necessarily limit the quality of said contact. This appears to be an organizational shortcoming with the Cardinals – whether by choice, happenstance, or some other reason.

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (AA)
24.1 IP, 11.84 K/9, 0.74 BB/9, 1.11 ERA

Painter is a candidate to claim the mantle of top minor league pitcher once Grayson Rodriguez matriculates. In a past episode of BHP, I compared Painter to Spencer Strider due to what might play as a two-pitch repertoire. Reports have since surfaced that he’s gained confidence in an improved changeup. I also failed to account for their difference in stature – Painter is seven inches taller which greatly affects the shape of his fastball.

While he hasn’t induced quite as many swinging strikes as Strider did through his ascent, Painter has shown better command and pitchability. Given his early success in Double-A following 17 dominant starts in A-ball, he could be on track to debut in 2023. It’s rare for pitchers to reach the Show in their age 20 season. In fact, the youngest pitchers in the Majors this season are 22, though Luis Patino was 20 when he debuted. He even set a season-high of 27 batters faced on September 3, more than most big leaguers face in a start.

Adael Amador, 19, SS, COL (A)
555 PA , 15 HR, 26 SB, .292/.415/.445

Similarly to Quero, Amador remained in Low-A all season where he was able to focus on making modest improvements without being overmatched. He’s seen as a high-probability shortstop prospect who recorded more walks than strikeouts, makes a ton of contact, and isn’t a complete zero in the power department. He hits too much pulled, ground ball contact, but he has plenty of time to make adjustments. Excellent plate discipline is an important and underrated ingredient when it comes to altering a young player’s batted ball profile. While some scouting reports suggest he’ll shift to second base down the line, my own interpretation is that this isn’t strictly necessary. Defensively, he might fit best as a first-division utility man capable of suiting up all over the diamond. Not to say that he’s similar to Chris Taylor, but that role would be an excellent use of Amador’s talents.

Five More

Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): Like Carter, Chourio earned a promotion to Double-A mostly in order to continue his season. Thus far, he’s just 1-for-11 with three walks and four strikeouts. He’s also just 18-and-a-half, eight months the junior of the next-youngest hitter at the level (see next). If he can salvage a strong finish, he might be on pace to arrive in the Majors as a teenager.

Deyvison De Los Santos, ARI (19): Another promotee for the purpose of extending his season, De Los Santos flashed through Low- and High-A this season while bashing 21 home runs and posting some gaudy BABIPs. Those helped to hide swing-and-miss issues with his approach that at times evokes Pedro Cerrano. Plate discipline remains an ongoing issue for the potent teenager.

Francisco Alvarez, NYM (20): Recently sidelined with a loose body in his ankle, Alvarez returned to action a few days ago. He launched a home run on Tuesday. The Mets have gotten next to no offense from their catchers and might be willing to take desperate measures as the Braves nip at their heels in the NL East race.

Tink Hence, STL (20): Profiled in detail last week, Hence made a third straight scoreless start. He even faced a career-high 16 batters. The Cardinals continue to carefully manage his innings this season, combining short starts with a full week between outings.

Chase Silseth, LAA (22): Though he’s made seven big league appearances spanning 28.2 innings (6.59 ERA), Silseth has yet to appear in Triple-A. The 22-year-old has pitched excellently in Double-A with a 2.28 ERA, 11.93 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, and a flashy 17.8 percent swinging strike rate. He delivered a six-inning scoreless outing on Thursday with nine strikeouts for the Rocket City Trash Pandas.

Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Walker, Holliday, Lee, Painter

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we check in with a couple recently-promoted Major Leaguers, peek at a couple more on the cusp, and introduce ourselves to some hot-hitting 2022 draftees.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Vaughn Grissom, 21, 2B/SS, ATL (MLB)
35 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .406/.457/.656

Grissom was just playing his way into consensus Top 100 status when the Braves tabbed him for a Major League promotion instead. He had just 98 plate appearances in Double-A after spending much of the season in High-A (344 PA, 11 HR, 20 SB, .312/.404/.487). His numbers have actually improved slightly at each stop. As many have noted (unpleasant noise warning), he’s the second player the Braves have skipped straight past Triple-A. Of course, 35 plate appearances is hardly the basis for Major League success – the true challenge is proving the ability to counter-adjust once the league figures him out. We might not get to that point since Ozzie Albies is approaching a rehab assignment. Grissom will probably hold down the fort until then.

His arrival also has long-term implications. He mostly played shortstop in the minors. So too did Albies back in the day. The club could be using this opportunity to further their postseason bid by using a more dynamic player than Ehire Adrianza while at the same time assessing if a shortstop signing is an urgent need this winter. If they like what they see from Grissom, the Braves might opt to target a lesser free agent like Jose Iglesias or even skip the market altogether.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
430 PA, 15 HR, 17 SB, .310/.393/.522

On Thursday, Walker had his third double-dinger game since July 29. He appears to have accomplished all that he can in Double-A by both improving upon his walk and strikeout rates while continuing to punish the baseball. One of the big impending storylines of free agency is Nolan Arenado’s player option decision. Will he stay or hit the open market? Judging by the ascendancy of Walker, St. Louis might be alright with letting Arenado walk. After all, they can always use Nolan Gorman at third base if Walker isn’t ready in early 2023.

There are still some issues with Walker’s game hidden underneath the beautiful surface level stats. For one, he has a 16.1 percent swinging strike rate. That’s roughly on par with Adolis Garcia, Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, and Patrick Wisdom – not exactly the most contact-oriented collection of batters. Moreover, Walker has these whiff issues while running a 45 percent ground ball rate. One of the “tricks” for striking out less is to flatten a swing plane. That adds grounders at the expense of fly balls. Walker has nothing left to give on that front. For what it’s worth, some of the next guys up on the swinging strike rate list are Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Rafael Devers, and Byron Buxton. Stars can sometimes have whiff problems without dreadful strikeout rates.

Jackson Holliday, 18, SS, BAL (CPX)
6-for-15, 1 HR, 1 SB, 5 BB, 1 K

The number one overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday arrived with a bang in the complex league this week. He hit his first professional home run on Friday and has a five-to-one walk-to-strikeout ratio. MLB Pipeline already rates him the 14th-best prospect in the league – an aggressive ranking compared with the recent updates from Baseball America (39) and Keith Law (42). Scouting notes on Holliday remain sparse, mostly focusing on his excellent pre-draft conditioning as well as a need to see him against more advanced competition. With the way he’s playing in his first week, a promotion could come soon.

Brooks Lee, 21, SS, MIN (A+)
30 PA, 1 HR, .333/.400/.444

Another recent first-round draftee, Lee made short work of the complex league. The Twins liked his hit tool so much they assigned him straight to High-A. There, he’s more than held his own albeit with more swing-and-miss than expected. Given the aggressive assignment – nearly every player in High-A has years rather than a few scant weeks of professional experience – Lee’s early success is encouraging. Law believes Lee “is the ne plus ultra” of fast-moving college draftees, meaning we could see him broach the Majors as early as next season. Law also considers a move to third base likely while other sources think Lee can stick at shortstop so long as he’s well-positioned.

The ”fast-mover” middle infield profile typically consists of a near-elite hit tool and nonexistent power. Think Nick Madrigal. Lee’s power is more aptly described as nascent. He’s expect to grow into 10 to 20 home runs annually to go with a disciplined, high-average approach.

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (A+)
(A+) 36.2 IP, 12.03 K/9, 1.72 BB/9, 0.98 ERA

Last week, we covered Ricky Tiedemann in this spot. Many of the same superlatives apply to Painter. He’s the same age as Tiedemann and rapidly ascending towards Top 10 prospect status. He’s one of the best pitchers left in the minors. At present, Painter has a fastball-slider combo that evokes Spencer Strider. Painter lives upstairs with 98-mph heat then drops sharp sliders into the strike zone. Scouting reports indicate his ability to locate the slider outside of the zone is still a work in progress as are the development of a curve and changeup. Given Strider’s success with the same toolkit, Painter might just find his way to the Majors next season as a two-pitch 20-year-old.

Five More

Josh Jung, TEX (24): Last week, we noted Jung’s successful return to Triple-A. Since then, he’s gone 10-for-20 with four home runs, three doubles, two walks, and a strikeout. A promotion should come any day now.

Sal Frelick, MIL (22): Speaking of hot bats, Frelick is hitting .440/.525/.540 through his first 60 Triple-A plate appearances with more walks than strikeouts. The Brewers have fallen three games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central and two games back of the Phillies in the Wild Card race. Milwaukee could consider taking a page from the Braves by promoting Frelick before he’s ticked all the usual developmental boxes. Center field and leadoff hitter are their biggest areas of need. Frelick profiles as Steven Kwan-like.

Brayan Bello, BOS (23): Bello is slated to make a rehab start at Triple-A on Friday. If all goes well, he could return to the Majors in short order. While it’s trendy to count the Red Sox out of the playoff hunt, they’re only five games behind the Rays and Jays. They’re six back of the Mariners. A recovery is certainly possible. Bello, with his domineering stuff and over-60 percent ground ball rate, could be an important piece if Boston is to salvage their season.

Kerry Carpenter, DET (24): A late-bloomer who only started generating hype this season, Carpenter thrashed the upper-minors for 30 home runs in 400 plate appearances. He’s since tacked on two dingers in 25 Major League plate appearances. As expected, he’s shown signs of below average plate discipline and a modest swinging-strike issue in his small sample of big league experience. Overall, his debut has been a rousing success to date so the Tigers have every reason to continue trotting him out on a daily basis.

Marcelo Mayer, BOS, (19): In recent years, we’ve been spoiled with precocious play from young, top prospects. Of all the Top 10 prospect candidates, we’ve had the least to say about Mayer in this column. The long and short of it is he’s having a typical season for a prospect of his age and repute. He hasn’t done anything jaw-dropping while at the same time assuring onlookers of his eventual role as a Major League shortstop of some quality. Personally (remember, I’m not a scout), I see similarities to J.P. Crawford with eventual power outcomes being a tad more accessible/plausible. Since a recent promotion to High-A, he’s hitting .243/.333/.405 in 42 plate appearances.

Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Search

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The Phillies are looking to add a front-of-the-rotation type of arm, with The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter links) writing that the Phils want “a starter who can start a playoff game.”  To this end, the club has been linked to such arms as the Reds’ Tyler Mahle, the Angels’ Noah Syndergaard, and the Pirates’ Jose Quintana — three of the most prominent starting pitchers remaining on the trade market.

Mahle is controlled through the 2023 season, while Syndergaard and Quintana would be pure rentals as players who are scheduled for free agency this winter.  As such, Mahle would surely cost the most in a trade, and Syndergaard carries a bit of a financial hit, with roughly $7.2MM still owed to him over the remainder of the season.  By contrast, Quintana is owed only around $675K for the rest of 2022, but Quintana also has a shaky track record over the last few seasons before righting himself this year in Pittsburgh.

Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia’s president of baseball operations, suggested earlier this week that his team was hoping to bolster the rotation, but the Phils were also hesitant about dealing any of their top prospects.  Stark backs up that assertion, noting that the Phillies haven’t been willing to move any of Mick Abel, Andrew Painter or Logan O’Hoppe (the Phils’ consensus top-three prospects in the view of Baseball America and MLB Pipeline), or right-handed pitching propects Griff McGarry or Ben Brown.  BA ranks McGarry fourth and Brown seventh in their ranking of Phillies prospects, while Pipeline is a little less bullish, ranking McGarry eighth and Brown 26th.

Since the Phillies’ system isn’t considered to be too deep overall, it isn’t any surprise that the front office isn’t keen on parting ways with any of the relatively few premium names on hand in the minors.  However, as Stark observes, the Phils will find it difficult to obtain higher-tier pitching unless they’re open to trading prospects.  Given the amount of interest Mahle has received from around the league, and given what the Reds just obtained from the Mariners in the Luis Castillo deal, it would seem almost impossible for the Phillies to land Mahle without at least one of the blue-chip prospects.

Syndergaard and Quintana would come at a lower price tag as rental players, but Stark notes that Dombrowski also prefers controllable starters.  This was Philadelphia’s strategy in landing Kyle Gibson from the Rangers at last year’s deadline, and landing a starter who is controlled through at least 2023 would give the Phillies some cover since Gibson and Zach Eflin could both be free agents this winter.

The rotation seems to be Philadelphia’s top priority at this point, as Stark says that the Phillies aren’t focused on any bullpen moves for the moment.  This is a little surprising given the Phils’ longstanding needs in the relief corps, but it could be that Dombrowski is first exploring his options with the starter market before turning to the (relatively) easier route of adding relievers.  Also, virtually every contender in baseball is looking for relievers right now, so Dombrowski could be opting to make some late strikes after the first wave or two of bullpen trades have been made.

Phillies Interested In Matt Chapman

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The Phillies have shown interest in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman, but unsurprisingly, the Athletics have put a big price tag on the Gold Glover.  In exchange for Chapman, Oakland is asking for one of the Phillies’ top prospects as the centerpiece of a trade package, Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports, with such names as shortstop Bryson Stott or right-handers Mick Abel and Andrew Painter mentioned as the caliber of prospect the Athletics would have in mind.

Since Philadelphia’s farm system is short on premium talent, naturally the “Phillies have been reluctant to” part with any of their best youngsters in a Chapman deal, Coffey writes.  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has a long history of trading quality minor league talent for proven big leaguers, however, and it is possible that giving up another blue-chip prospect would simply be the necessary cost to pry Chapman away from the A’s.

While the Athletics’ payroll-cutting endeavors have already begun with tonight’s Chris Bassitt trade with the Mets (a Phillies NL East rival, no less), Billy Beane’s front office isn’t going to move Chapman for pure salary-dump purposes.  At his best, Chapman has shown he is one of the game’s best all-around players, combining consistently superb third base defense with some big offensive numbers, particularly in 2018 and 2019.  Over the last two years, however, Chapman’s average and OBP totals have dropped off, while his strikeouts have ballooned — Chapman’s 33.1% strikeout rate is the third-highest of any qualified hitter in baseball since the start of the 2020 season.

The Phillies and other trade suitors (the Yankees and Mariners have been linked to Chapman earlier this winter) could use this downturn to try and negotiate a lesser trade return for the third baseman, yet that tactic might not work given the amount of interest in his services.  Chapman is projected for a $9.5MM salary in 2022 and also has another arbitration year remaining in 2023, with that extra control only adding to the Athletics’ high asking price.

Alec Bohm (himself a former top prospect) is penciled into Philadelphia’s third base role for Opening Day, though Bohm’s defensive struggles have already led to speculation that a position change could be in his future.  Bohm’s lack of production at the plate in 2021 also didn’t help his cause, even if countless players have dealt with the so-called sophomore slump.  Theoretically, the Phillies could acquire Chapman and then move Bohm across the diamond into a first base/DH split with Rhys Hoskins, though such a move would then lock up the Phils’ DH spot.

Stott is also a factor in the team’s infield plans, as the 14th overall pick of the 2019 draft has been viewed as a candidate to both make his MLB debut in 2022, and also immediately step into a regular role.  This could be as a shortstop if Didi Gregorius is traded, perhaps at second base if the Phillies opted to instead deal Jean Segura, or maybe even at the hot corner, if the Phillies decide to switch Bohm’s position even without acquiring a proven veteran like Chapman.  While the Phillies surely also prize Abel and Painter, it would seem on paper that Stott might be the most untouchable of the trio, given Stott’s importance to Philadelphia’s infield plans.

Phillies Sign First-Rounder Andrew Painter, 10 Other Top Picks

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7:36PM: Painter signed for a $3.9MM bonus, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports, landing under the $4,197,300 slot value.  As for Philadelphia’s other picks, MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis reports that second-rounder Ethan Wilson signed for a $1,507,600, matching the slot price for the 49th overall pick.

6:15PM: The Phillies have made quick work of the top end of their 2021 draft class, announcing that they have come to terms with all 11 of their picks through the draft’s first 11 rounds.  This includes first-round pick Andrew Painter, the high school right-hander selected 13th overall.  No financial terms were announced for any of the signings — the 13th overall selection has an assigned slot price of $4,197,300.

Baseball America ranked Painter 15th on their list of prospects in this year’s draft class, while MLB Pipeline and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel each had Painter 18th, Fangraphs 22nd, and The Athletic’s Keith Law put the righty in 24th.  As McDaniel notes, the additional risk involved in drafting high school pitchers might be the only red flag against Painter, since “basically everything Painter…does grades as a 55 or 60, and the frame, delivery and feel all check out.”

To that point, Pipeline and BA’s grades give high marks to Painter’s four-pitch arsenal, headlined by a fastball that sits in the 93-97mph range and is already considered a plus pitch.  There could be more potential for future velocity since the 18-year-old is already either 6’6″ or 6’7″ and weighs between 210-230 pounds.  Painter’s control is also very highly regarded, which Baseball America notes is something of a rarity for a high school arm.

2021 MLB Draft, Day One Results

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The 2021 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll be keeping track of tonight’s picks as they’re announced.  The draft will get underway this evening with the first 36 picks — the first round proper, the compensatory round (which consists of just one pick, the Reds’ extra selection granted when Trevor Bauer rejected their qualifying offer last winter and signed with the Dodgers for more than $50MM), and then Competitive Balance Round A.

Rounds 2-10 (plus the included compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round B) will take place on Monday afternoon, and then rounds 11-20 will take place Tuesday afternoon.  This year’s draft is to 20 rounds from five rounds in 2020, and the current expectation is that the 2022 draft will return to its old 40-round format, though the draft structure will be one of many topics under discussion when the league and the players’ union negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement this winter.

For more on these stars of the future, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The selections…

  1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, University Of Louisville
  2. Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  3. Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
  4. Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
  5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State University
  6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas, TX)
  7. Kansas City Royals: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic High School (CT)
  8. Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
  9. Los Angeles Angels: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (Ohio)
  10. New York Mets: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  11. Washington Nationals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
  12. Seattle Mariners: Harry Ford, C/OF, North Cobb High School (GA)
  13. Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FLA)
  14. San Francisco Giants: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State University
  15. Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
  16. Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
  17. Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
  18. St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
  19. Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University Of Mississippi
  20. New York Yankees: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois University
  21. Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University
  22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge High School (IN)
  23. Cleveland Indians: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
  24. Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest University
  25. Oakland Athletics: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA)
  26. Minnesota Twins: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional High School (NJ)
  27. San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park High School (MD)
  28. Tampa Bay Rays: Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines High School (CA)
  29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL)
  30. Cincinnati Reds (compensatory pick): Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic High School (FL)
  31. Miami Marlins (Competitive Balance Round A): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East High School (NY)
  32. Detroit Tigers (CBR-A): Ty Madden, RHP, University of Texas
  33. Milwaukee Brewers (CBR-A): Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
  34. Tampa Bay Rays (CBR-A): Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor High School (TN)
  35. Cincinnati Reds (CBR-A): Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State University
  36. Minnesota Twins (CBR-A): Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (WI)

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