Bobby Witt Jr.

The Royals are exploring the market for relief help, manager Matt Quatraro said at this week’s Winter Meetings (relayed by Anne Rogers of MLB.com). General manager J.J. Picollo took a broader approach in an appearance on the MLB Network with Matt Vasgersian and Harold Reynolds, saying they’re evaluating both the rotation and bullpen markets.

Picollo expressed a similar desire to upgrade the starting five a couple weeks ago. Kansas City subsequently brought in Kyle Wright in a trade with the Braves, but he’ll miss all of next season recovering from shoulder surgery. It’s natural they’re still searching for pitching help in any area, although Picollo noted today they’ll need to “rebuild (the) bullpen.”

That could point to multiple additions to the relief unit. The Royals acquired Nick Anderson in a cash transaction with Atlanta in the middle of November. He’s one fairly experienced addition to a bullpen still consisting of mostly young pitchers. Among returning hurlers with 20+ innings pitched, only James McArthur and swingman Alec Marsh turned in a sub-4.00 ERA when working out of the bullpen. Carlos Hernández and Taylor Clarke joined that group in narrowly posting a strikeout rate better than league average.

Only the Rockies — who play in a much more difficult home park for pitchers — had a worse bullpen ERA overall. K.C. relievers finished 23rd in strikeout rate and 28th in walk percentage. Given that lack of depth, it’s unsurprising that the Royals are looking to add beyond Anderson. Quatraro noted the roster as currently constructed doesn’t have a closer, so they project to have a committee approach to the late innings for now.

If the front office wants to add some stability, they could pursue someone with experience handling the ninth inning. Kansas City’s $3.75MM free agent deal with Aroldis Chapman last offseason was one of the winter’s best rebound fliers, as the Royals flipped him for breakout lefty Cole Ragans after Chapman turned in a stellar first half. While Chapman is presumably out of Kansas City’s price range this time around, the likes of David Robertson and Dylan Floro are speculative bounceback candidates who have worked as closers in the past.

Picollo also confirmed reports that the Royals have had some extension talks with franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. The GM predictably didn’t tip his hand about the status of negotiations or handicap the odds of getting a deal done but noted the team “(loves) having him” and called Witt the “face of our future.” The righty-hitting shortstop connected on 30 home runs with a .276/.319/.495 batting line while playing 158 games this year. He’s under club control for four more seasons and will reach arbitration for the first time next winter if the sides don’t agree to a long-term deal in the interim.

While the Royals’ rebuild hasn’t gone to plan overall, Kansas City does have at least one cornerstone in Bobby Witt Jr.  The second overall pick of the 2019 draft has lived up to the hype in his young career, fully breaking out with a 5.7 fWAR season in 2023 that saw Witt hit .276/.319/.495 over 694 plate appearances with 30 homers, 49 stolen bases (in 64 chances), and a league-high 11 triples.  The public defensive metrics are rather unusually split on Witt’s glovework, but at least in the view of the Outs Above Average metric, Witt’s +14 number makes him one of sport’s best defensive shortstops, to boot.

The future is very bright for the 23-year-old, and some level of discussion seems to have taken place between Witt and the Royals in regards to how much of that future will be in K.C.  Witt told Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star that “I think there is some talks here and there” in regards to a possible contract extension, “so we’re just kind of waiting to see.  I love this organization and love this team.  It’s just kind of one of those things.  If the time is right, the time’s right.”

Players and teams usually tend to keep contract negotiations quiet, especially since things between Witt and the Royals might still be somewhat in the embryonic stages.  As Thompson noted, Royals GM J.J. Picollo said last month that the club was “working on” extending Witt, and that “it would be exciting to do so, as he is a special player.  We want to keep special players in our uniform.”

To this end, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal hears from a source that the Royals are “at least entertaining the idea of approaching Witt” about an extension at some point this offseason, which implies that no formal offers have been issued or perhaps even floated towards Witt’s representatives at Octagon.  It is worth noting that there isn’t a big ticking clock on either side to fully delve into talks, as Witt is under team control through 2027 and won’t even be eligible for salary arbitration until next winter.

That said, Witt’s price tag will only increase as time goes by.  Witt is already looking at a sizeable set of increasing salaries through his arb seasons, so the Royals would surely like to gain some cost certainty for those years at the minimum.  If a larger-scale extension can’t be worked out, Witt and the Royals might explore a shorter-term deal covering just the arbitration seasons, akin to the three-year extension Bo Bichette signed with the Blue Jays last spring.

Even that type of extension would be a relatively pricey endeavor for a Kansas City franchise that has never been big spenders.  Salvador Perez’s four-year, $82MM extension prior to the 2021 season remains the largest contract in franchise history, and a long-term deal for Witt might be at least twice that amount, depending on the number of years covered.

For instance, the Rays inked Wander Franco to an 11-year, $182MM extension after Franco’s 2021 rookie season, which consisted of 70 MLB games.  Like Franco, Witt was also a heavily hyped shortstop prospect, but Witt now has two full productive Major League seasons under his belt, so it would seem like Octagon could surely argue that a Witt extension deserves to top Franco’s deal, and approach or top the $200MM mark.  The Braves’ Austin Riley inked a ten-year, $212MM extension when he was between two and three years of MLB service time.

Though the Rays have shown a (comparatively) greater inclination to spend lately, we haven’t yet really seen how far the Royals are willing or able to stretch their payroll under owner John Sherman.  On the one hand, Perez’s extension did take place under Sherman’s watch, as part of a relative spending spree during the 2020-21 offseason that also saw a four-year extension for Hunter Dozier, as well as two-year free agent deals for Mike Minor and Carlos Santana.  All of these moves were made with the intent of boosting what the Royals thought was a group of youngsters on the verge of a breakout, yet the team has continued to struggle.  This cost former president of baseball operations Dayton Moore his job in 2022, elevating Picollo from second-in-command to the head of the decision-making pyramid.

Some other big-picture issues cloud the financial picture.  While the bankruptcy of the Diamond Sports Group has yet to impact the Royals’ broadcasts on Bally Sports, Sherman said last spring that naturally the organization was monitoring the situation should the Royals’ TV rights payments suddenly come into question.  As well, Sherman has been trying to get a new ballpark built in Kansas City, and in some instances, owners claiming that a new stadium is critical to a team’s ability to compete don’t want to perhaps undercut that argument by then spending $200MM on a player’s contract.  That said, Rosenthal argues in the other direction, writing that a Witt extension “might help sway public sentiment” to get the ballpark project off the ground.

Even if K.C. probably aren’t going to be huge players in the offseason transaction market, the possibility of a Witt extension stands out as a notable subplot to watch — both for its importance on the Royals’ future, and as a benchmark for future extensions.  Even if the two sides are in the proverbial “talking about having some talks” phase of negotiations, expect things to get at least a little more serious as we get deeper into Spring Training, as teams tend to focus more on extensions once their offseason business is complete.

We don’t know when Opening Day will be for Major League clubs, but Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore told reporters this week that when it does, top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. will have the opportunity to break camp with the team (link via Pete Grahoff of the Kansas City Star).

“He’s very talented and we’re going to give him that opportunity,” Moore said of his organization’s top prospect. Because Witt has not yet been required to be added to the 40-man roster, Moore is able to freely discuss him and Witt is able to interact with club personnel and make use of club facilities.

By now, most fans are quite familiar with Witt Jr. — the son of 16-year MLB veteran pitcher Bobby Witt. Selected with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 draft, the now-21-year-old Witt Jr. is regarded as one of the game’s top three overall prospects. He’s played primarily shortstop in the minors and figures to, before long, be given the chance to settle in as the Royals’ long-term option either at short or at the hot corner.

The 2021 season was Witt’s first full year of professional games, thanks to the canceled minor league season in 2020, but you’d hardly know it based on the numbers. Splitting the season between Double-A (61 games, 279 plate appearances) and Triple-A (62 games, 285 plate appearances), Witt batted a combined .290/.361/.576 with 33 home runs, 35 doubles, four triples and 29 stolen bases (in 40 attempts). That production came not only in spite of extremely limited pro experience but also in spite of the fact that Witt was three years younger than his average opponent in Double-A and five years younger than the average Triple-A player.

Even in 2021, there was some talk that Witt could be considered for an Opening Day roster spot, although that always felt like an extreme long shot, given that he’d yet to play above Rookie ball. Now, with a dominant season in the upper minors under his belt, Witt would seem to have a legitimate chance at making the roster, so long as he performs well in whatever iteration of Spring Training is put together.

Just where Witt will line up on the diamond remains to be seen, as the Kansas City infield is rather crowded. Nicky Lopez solidified himself as an elite defender at shortstop this past season, and while he’s no lock to repeat his .300/.365/.378 batting line, the glove should continue to play no matter what. Two-time All-Star and 2021 stolen base champion Whit Merrifield can handle either second base or any of the three outfield spots. The ultra-talented but oft-injured Adalberto Mondesi remains in the mix for playing time, be it at shortstop, third base or in right field. Corner infielder/outfielder Hunter Dozier is entering the second season of a four-year, $28MM contract and will be looking to rebound from a dismal 2021 effort.

If the Royals prefer to leave Lopez, a Gold Glove finalist at shortstop, at the position where he broke out this past season, the natural move might be to slide Witt over to third base. The organization prepared for this to some extent last year, giving Witt 17 starts (and 18 total appearances) at the hot corner throughout the season.

The frequency (or lack thereof) of prospects of Witt’s caliber making their respective teams’ Opening Day rosters has been a key talking point in ongoing labor negotiations. The Royals, however, generally haven’t shied away from promoting top prospects out of the gate, rather than keeping them in the minors for a few weeks early in the season to secure a seventh year of club control. As recently as the 2020 season, the Royals gave Brady Singer a full year of service time, when keeping him at their alternate site for even a week would’ve delayed his path to free agency.

None of that is presented to spur debate on the merits of service-time practices that have become increasingly commonplace throughout the league. However, it’s notable context that Kansas City has generally taken up the stance that when the front office feels a player is ready, he’ll be added to the big league roster. Whether that means a full year of service in 2022 remains to be seen, as MLB and the Players Association will need to haggle over just how the canceled games will impact service time and pay.

Setting that aside, though, Moore’s confirmation of what was already widely assumed now gives Royals fans an additional reason to be excited for big league camp … whenever that may be. If Witt does indeed crack the Royals’ Opening Day roster and accrue a full year of service time in 2022, he’d be controllable via arbitration through the 2027 season before reaching free agency in advance of his age-28 season.