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Postseason Notes: Wild Card, Brewers, Dodgers

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As twenty teams prepare to pack it in for the offseason, a few odds and ends concerning those still remaining in the battle for a World Series crown…

  • The 2019 playoff picture is officially set. The Rays will head to Oakland for the AL Wild Card game on Wednesday, Oct. 2, with first pitch at 8:09 pm EST. Earlier this week, Rays manager Kevin Cash appeared on MLB Network Radio, where he made comments indicating that Charlie Morton would take the ball on Wednesday for Tampa. No official word has come from the Athletics regarding their own one-game stopper, but Billy Beane hinted to the San Francisco Chronicle that Sean Manaea may have the “inside track” to tackle the opportunity.
    The Nationals and Brewers will do battle on Tuesday at 8:08 pm EST in Washington D.C. for the NL play-in spot, where Max Scherzer is expected to take the ball for the Nationals. Meanwhile, Tom Haudricort of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relays that Brandon Woodruff will be trusted by manager Craig Counsell to best Scherzer in the winner-moves-on affair (link). Woodruff may not carry the imposing resumé of Scherzer (nor does he possess a rare genetic variation that endows him with transfixing, multi-colored eyes), but he has looked the part of a frontline starter when healthy in 2019, with a 3.62 ERA (3.01 FIP) in 121.2 innings this season.
  • In other Brewers-related news, outfielder Ryan Braun expects to play in that Tuesday tilt against D.C. Haudricort also relays that outfielder Lorenzo Cain is “hopeful” for the game (link). Braun is dealing with a calf issue, while Cain has a balky ankle. As previously noted here, the Brewers may be limited to Trent Grisham or Tyrone Taylor in center if Cain is indeed too hindered to give it a ’go’ on Tuesday night.
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts hasn’t yet announced the full pitching lineup for the NLDS, but he tells Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Time that he is “feeling really good” about trusting Rich Hill with potential Game 4 duties (link). Hill was only activated from the IL on September 24th but did strike out five Padre hitters in just two innings of work in that appearance. As the number-one seed in the National League, the Dodgers will host the winner of the Nats-Brewers Wild Card play-in matchup. The Dodgers, in fact, will play at home throughout the postseason, unless they face the Astros in the World Series–by posting an MLB-best 107-55 record, Houston clinched homefield advantage through the Fall Classic.

 

Brandon Woodruff To Start Tomorrow For Brewers

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Brewers skipper Craig Counsell said today that top starter Brandon Woodruff will make his long-anticipated return tomorrow, as Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel was among those to report (Twitter links). He has been sidelined since late July with an oblique strain.

Without any remaining minor-league games to utilize for rehab work, Woodruff will obviously not hit the ground at full stride. The Brewers are clearly planning ahead for a truncated outing, though just how long he’ll last hasn’t been divulged. The club did indicate that veteran lefty Gio Gonzalez will take the ball from Woodruff.

It’ll be interesting to see how the 26-year-old Woodruff throws upon his return. Indications are that the team is bullish on his work to date, though game conditions will pose a different challenge. With a tight postseason race coming down to the wire, Counsell will need to extract as much value as possible from Woodruff while also ensuring he doesn’t push the valuable young pitcher too far too fast.

If the Milwaukee organization is able to sneak into the postseason, Woodruff will be a fascinating part of the picture. He likely won’t be fully built up to shoulder a full starter’s workload, but could be used in tandem fashion. And it stands to reason that his workload might increase with each successive outing, which could make Woodruff a larger and larger factor.

Woodruff will still be short of two full years of MLB service at season’s end, so he’s well shy of arbitration eligibility. But he’s on track to qualify as a Super Two at the end of the 2020 campaign. With ample cheap control remaining, Woodruff is a major piece of the near-future puzzle in Milwaukee. Thus far in 2019, he has thrown 117 2/3 innings of 3.75 ERA ball with a strong combination of 10.4 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.

NL Notes: Dodgers, Brewers, Cubs, Padres

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It’s “very unlikely” outfielder Alex Verdugo will return for the Dodgers’ National League Division Series matchup, manager Dave Roberts told Ken Gurnick of MLB.com and other reporters Friday (Twitter links). The rookie originally landed on the injured list Aug. 6 with a right oblique strain, but a back injury has slowed him of late. Meantime, southpaw Rich Hill – who’s dealing with a strained left MCL – will undergo an MRI on Monday. It seems iffy at best that Hill will avoid a lengthy absence, as a strained left MCL previously shelved him for the first month of the season. The injury-prone 39-year-old then missed almost two months with a forearm problem. His start Thursday, when he recorded just two outs, was his first since June 19.

Here’s more from the National League…

  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel provided a couple injury updates Friday on the Brewers, who are now a game behind the NL’s second wild-card position (Twitter links). Top starter Brandon Woodruff is still on track to return in the next week, but it’s unclear whether he’ll start or relieve. Woodruff will throw a bullpen session Saturday as he continues working back from the oblique strain he suffered July 21. And catcher Manny Pina, out with a concussion since Sept. 5, isn’t recovering as quickly as the team hoped he would, according to manager Craig Counsell. The Brewers have “to stack some good days in a row” for Pina before he’s capable of returning, Counsell said. Milwaukee has been in fine shape behind the plate without Pina, of course, as it boasts one of the game’s elite catchers in Yasmani Grandal.
  • The Cubs promoted executive Jason McLeod to senior vice president of player personnel, which could keep him in their front office for at least a little while longer. But McLeod said this week that his goal is to run a team’s baseball department, per Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (subscription required). “I do aspire to someday lead an organization,” said McLeod, who has been on GM-needy clubs’ radars in the past. He interviewed for that position with the Giants last year, though they instead went on to hire Farhan Zaidi as their president of baseball operations.
  • Padres rookie Chris Paddack will make at least one more start this season, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets. Shutting Paddack down for the year looked like a possibility after he threw six scoreless innings against the Cubs on Wednesday. The rookie standout, 23, has now racked up 135 2/3 innings this season, easily surpassing the previous professional high of 90 he set in 2018 as a minor leaguer.

Brandon Woodruff Expected To Return Within A Week

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It hasn’t been a good week for the Brewers on the injury front (obviously), but they’re on the verge of getting one of their best arms back from the IL, general manager David Stearns tells Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (Twitter link). Right-hander Brandon Woodruff threw to hitters yesterday, and the organization is “very pleased” with how Woodruff looked in that session. Stearns adds that the expectation is that Woodruff will be able to pitch in a big league game “sometime within the next week.”

Woodruff, 26, hasn’t pitched in a game since July 21 due to what is clearly a rather significant oblique strain. He’s been rehabbing for a bit now but won’t have the luxury of ramping back up with a minor league affiliate, so he could be used in short stints his first few times out, McCalvy adds. There’s not much time to build him back up to a full starter’s workload, though perhaps if the Brewers secure a Wild Card spot and advance into divisional play, he’d be an intriguing multi-inning weapon either out of the ’pen or in a truncated (by design) starting capacity.

Prior to landing on the IL, Woodruff had been the Brewers’ most valuable starter. Through 20 trips to the hill and 117 2/3 innings, he’d turned in a 3.75 ERA with averages of 10.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 0.92 HR/9 to go along with a 43.6 percent ground-ball rate. Woodruff’s 11.6 percent swinging-strike rate and 33.5 percent opponents’ chase rate were both improvements over the 2018 campaign, as was his 96.2 mph average fastball velocity.

Fielding-independent metrics and Statcast both loved Woodruff’s work on the mound as well. He logged a 3.09 FIP and 3.46 xFIP while generally excelling at limiting hard contact. Woodruff’s average opponents’ exit velocity was in the 93rd percentile among big league hurlers at just 85.7 mph, and only five percent of MLB starters limited opponents in terms of barreled-ball rate.

The Brewers have rattled off six consecutive wins and suddenly find themselves tied with the Cubs for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. Not only that, they’re just four games back of the Cardinals for the NL Central lead and have a three-game series in St. Louis set to begin tomorrow. It doesn’t sound like Woodruff will factor prominently into that series, but his looming return is all the more important to the Brewers now that they’re squarely back in both the Wild Card and division races with 17 games to play.

Brewers Notes: Hiura, Shaw, Woodruff

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At 68-66 and five games out of wild-card position, the reigning National League Central champion Brewers have seen their playoff hopes drift away over the past several weeks. Now, if they’re going to make a miraculous run to another postseason berth in the final month of 2019, they may have to make do without one of their top players. Second baseman Keston Hiura is headed back to Milwaukee to have his hamstring examined after suffering an injury in the Brewers’ loss to the Cubs on Friday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. In the wake of that news, the Brewers are set to recall infielder Travis Shaw from Triple-A San Antonio on Friday, according to Robert Murray of The Athletic.

The brilliance of the rookie Hiura has helped phase Shaw out of the Brewers’ plans for most of the season. Hiura has overcome a 30 percent strikeout rate to slash an excellent .301/.369/.571 with 16 home runs and 2.0 fWAR over his first 295 major league plate appearances. Along the way, the 23-year-old Hiura has established himself as one of 2019’s hardest hitters, ranking near the top of the league in several Statcast metrics.

The woes Shaw has unexpectedly endured played a large role in the Brewers’ decision to call up Hiura for the second time back in July (they optioned Shaw in a corresponding move). But now that Hiura’s potentially bound for the IL and third baseman/second baseman Mike Moustakas is dealing with a wrist issue, the Brewers are left to hope for a Shaw revival.

While Shaw was an integral piece of the Brewers’ position player group from 2017-18, this year’s version has limped to a disastrous .145/.276/.279 line with six homers and a sky-high 32.5 percent K rate through 228 PA. Shaw has raked in the minors, however, having batted .286/.437/.586 (good for a 145 wRC+ in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League) and mashed 12 HRs in 174 trips to the plate.

The Brewers’ rotation, like Shaw, has gone through a less-than-ideal season – in part because emergent righty Brandon Woodruff went to the IL in late July with an oblique injury. They’re hopeful Woodruff will take the mound again in 2019, though.

“We’re trying to get him healthy for October,” manager Craig Counsell said (via McCalvy). “I mean, I think Brandon can play a huge part in this thing. The best-case scenario is obviously sometime late in the second half of September and October.”

Realistically, there won’t be an October for the sinking Brew Crew, but it would still be nice from the team’s perspective to see Woodruff finish this season healthy. The 26-year-old held his own in 117 2/3 innings before his IL placement, posting a 3.75 ERA (with a far better 3.09 FIP) and 10.4 K/9 against 2.22 BB/9. Woodruff has unquestionably been the Brewers’ most effective starter this year, and the fact that they’ve gone without him for several weeks has helped take a sledgehammer to their playoff chances.

Central Notes: Brewers, Kang, Twins, Buxton, Royals

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The latest from baseball’s Central divisions…

  • The Brewers have shown interest in signing free-agent infielder Jung Ho Kang to a minor league contract, but it doesn’t appear an agreement will come together before the Triple-A season runs out. The two sides are “bogged down in visa issues,” according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. It’s unclear what exactly is causing the problem, but Kang did miss almost all of the 2018 season while with the Pirates because he had difficulty securing a visa on the heels of a third DUI arrest in his homeland of South Korea. Kang returned last year, though, and then re-signed with the Pirates for a $3MM guarantee in November. It proved to be a poor investment for Pittsburgh, which released the 32-year-old Kang in early August after he hit .169/.222/.395 in 185 plate appearances.
  • More from Haudricourt, who tweets Brewers right-hander Brandon Woodruff still isn’t expected to rejoin the club before the middle of September. But Woodruff, who suffered an oblique injury July 21, is making progress. He moved his throwing program to 120 feet off flat ground Friday, which Haudricourt notes is the final step before he returns to the mound. The absence of Woodruff, who has unquestionably been the Brewers’ top starter this year, is an obvious reason why they’re drifting from NL Central and wild-card contention. The 26-year-old Woodruff has broken out with a 3.75 ERA/3.09 FIP and 10.4 K/9 against 2.22 BB/9 over 117 2/3 innings.
  • Twins center fielder Byron Buxton is nearing a rehab assignment, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com writes. Buxton hit the IL on Aug. 3 with a left shoulder subluxation – a product of the all-out effort with which he plays. The 25-year-old crashed into the outfield wall while trying to rob Milwaukee catcher Yasmani Grandal of an extra-base hit. Unfortunately for Buxton, not only did he fail to come up with the ball, but he’ll end up missing at least a few weeks because of the attempt. Injuries have been an issue all summer for Buxton, who has gone on the IL three times since June. When healthy, though, this has been a highly productive season for Buxton, owner of a .262/.314/.513 line with 10 home runs, 14 stolen bases and 2.6 fWAR in 295 plate appearances.
  • Royals southpaw Danny Duffy will begin a rehab stint at the Double-A level Sunday, Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star relays. A left hamstring strain has kept Duffy out of action since Aug. 3, when Minnesota lit him up for nine runs (eight earned) and four homers across 4 2/3 innings. This has been the second disappointing season in a row for Duffy, who has only managed a 4.93 ERA/5.13 FIP in 100 1/3 frames.

Brewers To Place Brandon Woodruff On 10-Day IL Due To Oblique Injury

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TODAY: Skipper Craig Counsell says the organization anticipates about a six-week absence, as Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel was among those to cover on Twitter. More will be known after the club learns the results of a full examination and MRi today.

YESTERDAY: The Brewers are placing Brandon Woodruff on the 10-day injured list after the right-hander suffered a left oblique injury during today’s game.  (Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel was among those to report the news.)  Woodruff was two pitches into the fourth inning of today’s start against Arizona when he suffered the injury, and left the game after a visit from the team trainer.

An MRI is scheduled for Monday to determine the extent of the injury, though the best-case scenario is at least a couple of weeks on the IL.  Depending on the severity, many oblique injuries usually require a month or more of recovery time, so the Brewers could potentially be without arguably their best starting pitcher for much (or all) of the pennant race.

Woodruff emerged as both a starter and a multi-inning bullpen weapon for the Brewers down the stretch and into the postseason last year, and earned enough trust from Milwaukee brass to begin the season in the rotation.  That decision proved to be a great one, as Woodruff ended up earning a spot on the NL All-Star team.  Including today’s abbreviated outing against the D’Backs, Woodruff has posted a 3.75 ERA, 10.4 K/9 and only a 2.22 K/BB rate over 117 2/3 innings in 2019.  As per Statcast numbers, he has been one of the league’s best pitchers at limiting exit velocity and hard-hit contract, holding opposing batters to a .286 xwOBA.

Woodruff has been a stabilizing force within a Brewers rotation that has generally delivered middle-of-the-pack numbers this year.  Among the most frustrating parts of Woodruff’s injury was that Milwaukee’s starters were beginning to show signs of rounding into form as a whole, as Gio Gonzalez was back from an IL stint and Chase Anderson has quietly re-established himself as a solid starter after beginning the season in the bullpen.  Zach Davies has also continued to pitch well in terms of bottom-line results, posting a 2.79 ERA despite some questionable advanced metrics.  In terms of a short-term replacement for Woodruff, Adrian Houser is likely the top choice to pick up starts in Woodruff’s place, though a pair of upcoming off-days on the schedule means that a fifth starter likely won’t be needed until sometime next week.

Today’s news will only intensify the Brewers’ search for pitching at the trade deadline, as the team had already been linked to such names as Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard on the starter front, and the Giants’ Will Smith as a potential bullpen upgrade.  Despite some unimpressive play in recent weeks, the Brewers are still in possession of an NL wild card berth, and are two games behind the Cubs for first place in the NL Central.  GM David Stearns said earlier this week that his club was planning to be deadline buyers, though left the door to perhaps standing pat (or at least not making any major splashes) unless the Brewers started to string together some wins.  Today’s win over the D’Backs gave Milwaukee five victories in its last six games.

Brewers Move Chase Anderson To Bullpen, Set Rotation

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The Brewers have settled on their Opening Day rotation, and they’ll be placing a good bit of faith in a young core of arms with limited big league experience, as Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes. Veteran Jhoulys Chacin was named the Opening Day starter earlier in camp, and it’s now been confirmed by the team that he’ll be joined by right-handers Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Zach Davies. While the 26-year-old Davies has been a presence in the Milwaukee rotation for the past couple of seasons, this will mark the first time that Burnes, Woodruff and to a lesser extent Peralta are penciled in as long-term starters. (Peralta did start 14 games for the Brewers last year but finished the season with a pair of relief outings.)

The decision to sandwich that trio of young arms between Chacin and Davies means that 2018 Opening Day starter Chase Anderson will begin the year in a bullpen role. So, too, will right-hander Junior Guerra, who has started 60 games for the Brewers over the course of the past three seasons.

The decision on Anderson is of particular note given that he signed a two-year, $11.75MM contract in October 2017. He’ll earn $6.5MM this year under the terms of that pact, but the Brewers have a pair of club options on him valued at $8.5MM and $9.5MM, respectively. The shift to the bullpen seemingly makes it less likely that he’d be valued at that price point, though Anderson would remain under club control as an arbitration-eligible player even if next year’s option is bought out, as he won’t have six full seasons of MLB service time.

The Brewers drew some criticism for not doing enough to address their rotation last winter in an offseason that saw them sign both Chacin and Wade Miley (who signed as a free agent with the Astros earlier in the current offseason). This winter, they didn’t make a single big league addition to their rotation, knowing full well that the trio of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta were now ready for big league roles.

It’s unconventional for a team with World Series aspirations to effectively begin the year auditioning three young starters, as promising as they may be, for long-term rotation roles. But, it’s also not difficult to see why the trio has earned the faith of the front office. Both Burnes and Woodruff have previously carried top 100 prospect billing and found some success in Triple-A despite playing their games there in an awful pitching environment (Colorado Springs). Both pitched well in relief roles at the MLB level last season, with Burnes in particular creating intrigue based on his spin rates (99th percentile in fastball, 89th in curveball) and velocity. Peralta, too, fared well in the hitter-friendly Colorado Springs in addition to turning in a 4.25 ERA (3.72 FIP) in his first 78 1/3 MLB frames.

It should also be noted that this iteration of the rotation is hardly permanent. Top starter Jimmy Nelson is on the mend from 2017 shoulder surgery and is nearing a return to the active roster. It’s also possible that either Anderson or Guerra could work his way back into the fold in the event of an injury or some shaky performance from one of the team’s younger arms. Righties Adrian Houser and Aaron Wilkerson are also on hand as 40-man options in Triple-A. And, as ever, the summer trade market will bear numerous options whom the Brewers could consider should the rotation prove to be an area of definitive need.

NL Central Notes: O’Neill, Brewers, Cubs

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As things currently stand, slugging outfielder Tyler O’Neill is expected to make the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. The Cards “have reserved a spot for him as a spare outfielder, for now,” Goold writes, noting that poor health in the shoulder of Marcell Ozuna and/or continued struggles for Dexter Fowler could eventually thrust him into a larger role. And with Ozuna set to hit free agency at season’s end, a more natural path to everyday at-bats for the 23-year-old O’Neill isn’t hard to see. As Goold highlights in chatting with hitting coach Jeff Albert, O’Neill has worked diligently to improve his contact skills as he seeks a more well-rounded offensive profile. O’Neill slugged 35 homers between Triple-A and the Majors last season but punched out in a quarter of his plate appearances in Triple-A and more than 40 percent of his 142 PAs in the Majors.

More from the division…

  • Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns chatted with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and discussed his club’s patient approach in free agency, as well as the decision not to bring in any rotation help from the free-agent market. “I’d say we explored various opportunities on the starting pitching market, but in the backdrop of all of that was the depth and comfort level that we have with our young starters,” said Stearns. “We rode a lot of these guys deep into the playoffs last year, whether it’s Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta or Corbin Burnes. They were in slightly different roles; we’re going to be asking more of them throughout the course of the year this year, but we think they have the potential to do it.” Asked if the team would have the financial wherewithal to make in-season additions after signing Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas, Stearns voiced confidence that owner Mark Attanasio is “willing to support this team and stretch the limits,” pointing to the very additions of Grandal and Moustakas as evidence of that mentality.
  • Although the Cubs didn’t make any kind of significant splash in free agency, they’re also not viewing the current roster as a finished product, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Part of the team’s lack of spending stems from a desire to make sure there are ample resources in place this summer to address in-season needs via the trade market. “We don’t know what it’s going to be, but certainly there’s going to be a major focus to make sure we’re in position to improve the team in the middle of the season,” said general manager Jed Hoyer of potential summer activity.
  • Perhaps the biggest additions the Cubs could see in 2019 would be healthy versions of Kris Bryant and Yu Darvish. Bryant said today in an appearance on 670 The Score that his shoulder feels “completely healed,” stressing that he’s not feeling any lingering effects of the injury that slowed him in 2018 (Twitter link). Darvish, meanwhile, spoke with confidence following his most recent spring outing, with particular excitement over the fact that his fastball reached 97 mph in that game (link via Wittenmyer). Obviously, only time will tell whether either former All-Star can rebound to something resembling peak form, but the fact that neither appears hampered by lingering effects of last season’s health struggles is nonetheless a positive sign for Cubs fans early on in camp.

Quick Hits: Roberts, Brewers, Harvey

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Some rumblings from around baseball as we get ready for the World Series to begin on Tuesday…

  • The Dodgers’ club option on Dave Roberts for 2019 is worth $1.1MM, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link).  The full financial terms of Roberts’ three-year contract aren’t known, though the manager is set to earn a nice payday should the club exercise its option as expected.  It is somewhat unusual that the Dodgers haven’t already locked Roberts up on a longer-term deal, though one would think that an extension is even more of an obvious bit of offseason business now that Roberts had led the team to its second consecutive World Series appearance.
  • The emergence of Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes in the postseason gives the Brewers two more potential options in what could be a very interesting pitching rotation next season, JR Radcliffe of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes.  Woodruff and Burnes were multi-inning relief weapons out of Milwaukee’s pen, with Woodruff starting a bullpen game in Game One of the NLDS and the unofficial starter for Game Five of the NLCS (when Wade Miley’s “start” lasted just one batter in a bit of trickery on the Brewers’ part).  With Woodruff and Burnes likely to be stretched out in Spring Training, they could add depth to a Milwaukee staff that has Jhoulys Chacin as the only sure thing, with Zach Davies, Freddy Peralta, Chase Anderson, Junior Guerra, and potentially a healthy Jimmy Nelson also in the mix.
  • Orioles pitching prospect Hunter Harvey will begin another throwing program in December, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  Chosen 22nd overall by the O’s in the 2013 draft, Harvey has tossed only 176 2/3 innings over his five pro seasons due to a number of arm problems, including Tommy John surgery in 2016.  This past season saw Harvey sidelined with shoulder, forearm, and elbow issues that limited him to 32 1/3 frames for Double-A Bowie.  The right-hander doesn’t turn 24 until December, and the Orioles are still hopeful that Harvey can develop into a solid Major League pitcher if he can shake the injury bug.
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