Bryan Reynolds

Pirates, Bryan Reynolds Agree To Two-Year Deal To Avoid Arbitration

By Anthony Franco | April 14, 2022 at 11:06pm CDT

The Pirates and center fielder Bryan Reynolds have agreed to a two-year contract to avoid arbitration, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The deal covers the 2022-23 campaigns and doesn’t affect the team’s window of contractual control. Reynolds is a CAA Sports client.

It’s a $13.5MM guarantee, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (on Twitter). He’ll receive matching $6.75MM salaries in each of the next two seasons, adds Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic.

Mackey wrote last week the Pirates were hoping to get a two-year deal done with Reynolds. As he noted, the Bucs are a “file-and-trial” team, meaning they decline to discuss one-year agreements with players once the deadline to exchange arbitration figures passes. That’s a fairly common practice around the league, albeit one teams set themselves.

By establishing the precedent they won’t continue negotiations after filing day, the reasoning goes, teams can deter players from filing at a high number in hopes of anchoring further discussions from an elevated starting point. If team and player go to a hearing, the arbitrator chooses one of the side’s desired figures rather than picking a midpoint. That incentivizes both to file for a salary reasonably in line with established precedent, since an outlier in either direction is less likely to be judged fair in the hearing.

On the other hand, going to a hearing with a star player like Reynolds isn’t ideal. The 27-year-old maintained in the past he wouldn’t be miffed by the process, but also acknowledged that the inherently adversarial arbitration process can sometimes get “messy” (link via Mackey). Signing a two-year deal after filing day allows the Pirates to maintain they’ve not violated their “file-and-trial” policy while avoiding the possibility of irritating one of their best players.

From Reynolds’ perspective, he locks in guaranteed earnings over the next couple years without delaying his path to free agency. He’ll also make more money this season than he would’ve even had he won a hearing. Reynolds’ camp had filed for a $4.9MM salary; the team had countered at $4.25MM. Pittsburgh will go above Reynolds’ desired mark this year to foreclose the possibility he receives a notable raise in 2023 with another big season.

Both sides are surely glad to avoid hearings for the next two years, but Reynolds’ long-term status with the organization isn’t much affected by today’s news. This was his first of four seasons of arb-eligibility as a Super Two qualifier. Barring another agreement at some point down the line, he’ll head through the arbitration process again in the 2023-24 and 2024-25 offseasons.

Reynolds is controllable through 2025, his age-30 campaign. He reportedly rejected an extension offer from the Bucs prior to the 2021 season and said in Spring Training the organization hadn’t seriously approached him about a long-term deal this year. Biertempfel tweets the two sides have discussed various potential contract structures in the past. It stands to reason they’ll eventually make a renewed effort at a longer-term pact.

Latest On Pirates, Bryan Reynolds

By Tim Dierkes | April 8, 2022 at 11:39am CDT

Due to the 99-day lockout this winter, a significant number of arbitration cases remain unsettled as the season begins. One of those is Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds. With the player filing at $4.9MM and the team at $4.25MM, a $650K gap exists between the sides. While some teams have made exceptions this year to the game’s otherwise-pervasive file-and-trial policy, it appears the Pirates would like to stay true to that without setting up a midseason fight with their best player. According to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “the team has been pushing to sign Reynolds to at least a two-year deal.”

Reynolds, 27, is entering the arbitration system for the first time. That means his 2022 salary will echo down the road, since he’ll also be arbitration eligible for the 2023, ’24, and ’25 seasons. A two-year deal would at least provide the Pirates with some cost certainty. Plus, Mackey’s sources say owner Bob Nutting does not like the optics of going to an arbitration hearing with Reynolds.

A recent example of what the Pirates appear to be aiming for happened with the Dodgers and Walker Buehler. The club had exchanged figures with Buehler in January ’21 and were facing an $850K gap, but instead hammered out a two-year, $8MM deal to buy out his first two arbitration years without affecting the team’s control over the player, going to a hearing, or violating the file-and-trial policy.

Reynolds generated plenty of interest on the trade market this offseason, with the Padres and Marlins among those recently connected. Pirates GM Ben Cherington recently said to Mackey, “Those calls are incoming calls. They’re not outgoing calls.”

Yesterday, the Pirates announced the largest contract in franchise history, an eight-year, $70MM extension with third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. Reynolds reportedly turned down some extension offers from the Pirates prior to the 2021 season. His price can only have risen since, significantly beyond that of Hayes. Reynolds told Mackey in February of this year that he hadn’t heard anything from the Bucs prior to the lockout.

Padres Notes: Clevinger, Abrams, Paddack, Weathers

By Mark Polishuk | April 3, 2022 at 8:02pm CDT

Mike Clevinger is battling soreness in his right knee and is expected to begin the season on the 10-day injured list, Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune). Clevinger has made only one appearance this spring, and lasted only 1 2/3 innings.

The IL placement “allows us to kind of smooth things out and slow it down some,” Melvin said. “We don’t feel like it’s a significant thing, but it actually might be a little bit of a blessing because it did feel like we were kind of rushing him a little bit.”

It has already been a lengthy absence from a big league mound for Clevinger, who underwent Tommy John surgery in November 2020 and subsequently missed all of last season. The Padres were already planning to ease him back into action on limited innings, pairing Clevinger with another pitcher in piggyback fashion. It seems likely that the team might still pursue this strategy when Clevinger does return, though the extra recovery time could allow Clevinger to start a bit deeper into games.

San Diego has enough of a pitching surplus to withstand Clevinger’s absence, particularly after Sean Manaea was acquired from the A’s earlier today. However, rumors continue to swirl about the possibility that the Friars could trade from their pitching depth to facilitate another deal, and the Padres reportedly came close on a four-player swap with the Mets yesterday that would’ve seen Eric Hosmer, Chris Paddack, and Emilio Pagan all sent to New York for Dominic Smith.

That trade would’ve been largely about getting luxury tax relief from Hosmer’s contract, though the Padres have also pursued other big-ticket moves to add talent. San Diego has long been rumored to have interest in the Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Padres offered two arms in Paddack and Ryan Weathers in exchange for the All-Star outfielder. That wasn’t enough for the Pirates, as talks were scuttled when Pittsburgh additionally wanted top prospect C.J. Abrams added to the trade package.

While Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has been willing to deal notable prospects in the past, he has mostly resisted trading any of the true upper-tier names from his farm system. As a consensus top-15 prospect in baseball, Abrams fits that billing, even coming off an injury-shortened 2021 season. The Pirates are known to be seeking a major return in exchange for Reynolds, so while Abrams is a justifiable ask for a player of Reynolds’ proven ability, it remains to be seen if the Padres (or any team) would be willing to trade away a blue-chip minor league talent.

In fact, the door remains open on Abrams contributing to the Padres’ own big league roster as early as Opening Day. Abrams has been hitting well this spring, and with Fernando Tatis Jr. set to miss as much as the first three months of the season, there is a vacancy at Abrams’ natural shortstop position. Abrams has also been playing at second base, and Melvin has suggested that he could get some reps in the outfield as well, acting as some center field depth behind Trent Grisham.

It would be an aggressive promotion considering that Abrams has only played 42 games of Double-A ball, and has never played at Triple-A. That said, the Padres didn’t shy away from putting Tatis on their Opening Day roster in 2019, and that was even before the new Collective Bargaining Agreement introduced the “Prospect Promotion Incentive,” which allows teams to potentially gain an extra draft pick if a top prospect spends an entire season on the active roster and has a high finish in awards balloting.

Returning to the pitching rumor mill, Paddack drew some attention from New York’s other team last month, when the Yankees and Padres were discussing Luke Voit in trade talks. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Yankees initially wanted Paddack in return for Voit, before finally settling on a less-experienced hurler in prospect Justin Lange.

Padres, Pirates Have Discussed Bryan Reynolds Trade

By Steve Adams | March 31, 2022 at 9:55pm CDT

9:55pm: The Padres currently consider the Pirates asking price on Reynolds to be “prohibitive,” writes Dennis Lin of the Athletic. That’s hardly a surprise, given the reported lofty asks the Bucs have sought in Reynolds talks with other teams.

9:21am: The Padres and Pirates have had recent trade discussions surrounding All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Young pitchers Chris Paddack and Ryan Weathers have both been mentioned as possible pieces going back to Pittsburgh, he adds.

It’s important to make a few key distinctions here. First and foremost, talks between the two parties don’t necessarily suggest that a deal is nigh — nor do they indicate that Pittsburgh is actively seeking to trade Reynolds. The Pirates have fielded Reynolds interest from more than a half-dozen teams since last summer alone, and he remains in camp with Pittsburgh.

Secondly, Paddack and Weathers are surely just two of a wide range of names that have been discussed. Even if both are of interest to the Bucs, additional pieces would assuredly need to be added. Paddack, for instance, is controlled for less time than Reynolds (three years to Reynolds’ four years) and is coming off a poor 2021 season that ended with an elbow injury. Weathers, meanwhile, is a former top-10 draft pick and top-100 prospect, but he was knocked around for a 5.32 ERA through 94 2/3 innings during last year’s rookie campaign. He’s controllable for another five years, at least.

As Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets, San Diego’s interest in Reynolds is not a new revelation. However, if they are indeed discussing specific players that could go back to Pittsburgh, that’d mark a sign of progression over prior, more preliminary talks, Acee adds.

Reports last night indicated that the Padres are open to trading from both their starting pitching and catching surpluses in order to address their needs in the outfield. Padres skipper Bob Melvin just yesterday acknowledged that the lack of outfield depth is “a concern.” San Diego has been considering the possibility of playing top shortstop prospect CJ Abrams in the outfield early this season.

At the moment, the Padres have Trent Grisham and Wil Myers locked into outfield slots, but their left field situation is particularly dire. Newly acquired first baseman/outfielder Matt Beaty could see significant time there despite grading out as a poor defender. Switch-hitting utilityman Jurickson Profar is the other leading leading candidate, but he’s coming off a miserable 2021 season at the plate and has spent the bulk of his career playing the infield.

Reynolds is about as high-profile a target that Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller could explore. That’s par for the course for Preller, who typically explores any and all opportunities to acquire a marquee player, however slim the chances may be. Preller and Pittsburgh counterpart Ben Cherington have lined up on a couple of trades over the past 13 months or so, however, as Pittsburgh traded both Joe Musgrove and Adam Frazier to San Diego in separate deals. As such, it’s likely that Paddack, Weathers and quite a few other Padres youngsters have already been discussed in previous trade talks between the two sides. Those prior talks could serve as groundwork to an extent, but evaluations and opinions of young players can change rapidly over the course of even just a few months’ time.

Reynolds has also been aggressively pursued by the Marlins, dating back to last year’s trade deadline. Other teams known to have interest in the switch-hitting 27-year-old include the Mariners, Yankees, Braves and Brewers, among others. It’s easy to see why when looking at Reynolds’ career .290/.368/.490 batting line and, in particular, last year’s .302/.390/.522 output. Reynolds is controllable all the way through the 2025 season, though, and between his elite performance and that long-term control, the asking price on him figures to be sky-high.

For instance, Craig Mish and Barry Jacksonn of the Miami Herald recently reported that the Pirates sought both shortstop Kahlil Watson and right-hander Max Meyer in talks with the Fish. Both recent first-rounders rank among the sport’s top-50 overall prospects. In past trade talks with the Mariners, the Bucs targeted uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez as the starting point and sought additional pieces beyond him, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. With regard to the Padres, those prior asks on Reynolds underscore that Paddack and Weathers would likely be seen as secondary pieces, at best.

As for the Padres’ general outfield search, if they’re not able to strike up an agreement with the Pirates regarding Reynolds, there’s no shortage of alternative paths for them to explore. The Twins are known to be seeking rotation help and have plenty of outfielders — both in terms of established players (Max Kepler) and young, MLB-ready options with upside (Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff). The Yankees could use additional options on the mound and behind the plate, and they have a crowded outfield mix (which includes former Padres trade target Joey Gallo). The Angels are deep in young outfielders (e.g. Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh) and are always on the hunt for rotation help. The Mariners, similarly, could use another starter and have a deep collection of outfield talent on the 40-man roster. Preller could also look to Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins or Austin Hays, though Mullins in particular is a Reynolds-esque long shot to be moved.

Marlins Notes: Reynolds, Hernandez, Bullpen, Neidert, Sixto

By Anthony Franco | March 23, 2022 at 10:22pm CDT

The Marlins were on the hunt for outfield upgrades all winter, eventually culminating in multi-year free agent deals with Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler. Neither player required parting with young talent, but the Fish looked into potential higher-impact acquisitions on the trade market.

Miami has long had interest in prying star center fielder Bryan Reynolds from Pittsburgh, and Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald shed some light on the teams’ discussions. The Bucs and Marlins discussed permutations that would’ve involved top shortstop prospect Kahlil Watson — Miami’s first-round pick last summer — headed back as part of a deal. However, Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins balked at including both Watson and 2020 #3 overall pick Max Meyer in a Reynolds trade.

Baseball America placed both Watson and Meyer among the back half of their Top 100 prospects this winter. Watson, a lefty-hitting shortstop with big bat speed and athleticism, fell to the Marlins at 16th in last year’s draft but signed for the 10th-highest bonus. That better reflected how evaluators viewed him as an amateur prospect, and he’s generally regarded as one of the highest-upside players in the minors. Meyer, meanwhile, has one of the minors’ best fastball-slider combinations and struck out 27.2% of Double-A hitters in his first full pro season. Prospect evaluators have raised some concerns about his size and command consistency, but he boasts a high-octane arsenal and isn’t that far from MLB readiness.

Parting with both Watson and Meyer would’ve been quite a blow to the Miami farm system, but it reflects the huge asking price the Pirates can justifiably set with four years of arbitration control over Reynolds. Reports going back to last summer’s trade deadline have suggested the Bucs preferred to build around him rather than move him. Reynolds told reporters (including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) this afternoon the Pirates haven’t approached him about an extension this offseason, and they’re set to go to an arbitration hearing to determine his 2022 salary after not agreeing to terms yesterday. Still, the 27-year-old downplayed the notion that a hearing could affect his relationship with the organization. “I’m an adult,” he said. “I can handle it. I don’t care. I have a pretty good idea of what’ll be said and all that. We’ll prepare, and we’ll be fine.”

Jackson and Mish write the Marlins and Pirates may eventually revisit trade talks, although it’ll again be difficult to pry him out of Pittsburgh. The Herald reports the Marlins also had some pre-lockout discussions with the Blue Jays regarding corner outfielder Teoscar Hernández, but those conversations are no longer active. Soler’s signing to play right field would seem to close the door on the possibility of Miami making a run at another corner outfielder/DH option like Hernández.

Speaking with reporters (including Christina De Nicola of MLB.com) this afternoon, general manager Kim Ng expressed her confidence in the Miami outfield. She pointed to García and Bryan De La Cruz as options to see some time in center field, while Jackson and Mish write that Jesús Sánchez could get a look there as well. Ng didn’t expressly rule out the possibility of further moves on the position player side, but she suggested it was more likely they’d look to add another arm to the bullpen.

“As I mentioned, the bat was first and foremost, and making sure that we secured that and what the parameters of that looked like,” Ng said (via De Nicola). “And now we’re definitely focused on relievers. I will say that I’ve gotten some nice reports on some of the guys here, so we might be able to pull from within as well.”

Among those internal possibilities is right-hander Nick Neidert. A well-regarded starting pitching prospect early in his career, Neidert has yet to find success in 44 MLB innings. The Marlins are deep in rotation options, and manager Don Mattingly told reporters today that Neidert will transition to a bullpen role (De Nicola link). Despite his profile as a changeup specialist — which theoretically should aid him against opposite-handed batters — Neidert has been hit at a .314/.444/.500 clip by lefties in the majors. He was similarly ineffective against southpaws in Triple-A last season (.306/.393/.471), and the bullpen role may afford Mattingly the opportunity to deploy him more often with the platoon advantage.

At present, the Marlins look likely to open the year with a starting five of Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Pablo López, Elieser Hernández and Jesús Luzardo. That’s a particularly strong top end, and Miami has high-upside young arms like Meyer, Edward Cabrera and Sixto Sánchez who could factor into the mix at some point.

Sánchez has already had some MLB success, but he missed the entire 2021 season due to injury and will also begin this year on the injured list as he recovers from last July’s shoulder surgery. De Nicola tweets that the fireballing 23-year-old is currently a third of the way through a six-week shutdown period. Given that he won’t even pick up a ball until at least a few weeks into the season, it seems likely he’ll spend a fairly significant amount of time on the IL to open the year.

NL East Notes: Phillies, Bryant, Marlins, Reynolds, Marte, Jansen, Chafin, Mets

By Mark Polishuk | March 20, 2022 at 8:01pm CDT

The Phillies were often speculated as a suitor for Kris Bryant this winter, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the team did indeed have interest in the former NL MVP. However, Bryant wanted as much long-term security as possible in the form of “at least a seven-year deal,” and he landed that desired contract with his seven-year, $182MM agreement with the Rockies. Philadelphia’s offer topped out at five years, Nightengale writes.

Given the terms, one wonders if the Phillies’ offer to Bryant was somewhat similar to the five-year, $100MM deal the club ended up giving to Nick Castellanos. Even that deal took some additional legwork, since as The Athletic’s Matt Gelb details, the front office first had to convince owner John Middleton that adding Castellanos was worth exceeding the luxury tax threshold for the first time in franchise history. Middleton has long stated that he was willing to pay the tax for a difference-making type of acquisition, and the end result is that the Phillies are now projected to sit above the $230MM threshold with an estimated $236.46MM tax number.

NL Central Notes: Castellanos, Reds, Reynolds, Cardinals, Pujols, Kim

By Mark Polishuk | March 12, 2022 at 4:26pm CDT

The bullpen, a fifth starter, bench help, and backup catching were cited by Reds GM Nick Krall as possible target areas, Krall told The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters, and the Reds could turn to either Major League or minor league free agents to address any of those needs. In regards to one particular prominent free agent, Krall seemed to close the door on the chances of Nick Castellanos returning to Cincinnati, saying “we have not been engaged with his representatives.”

It doesn’t count as any big surprise that Castellanos will be moving on, since he was looking for a hefty new contract pre-lockout, and the Reds’ offseason moves have thus far been geared towards cutting and managing payroll (while still making some effort to contend for a playoff spot). Since Castellanos rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer and because Cincinnati is a revenue-sharing recipient, the team stands to receive an extra pick after the first round of the 2022 draft should Castellanos sign elsewhere for more than $50MM.

Bryan Reynolds Turned Down Extension Prior To 2021 Season

By Steve Adams | March 11, 2022 at 10:11am CDT

Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds turned down multiple extension offers prior to the 2021 season, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter links). News of rebuffed extension efforts will only serve to further trade speculation surrounding Reynolds, though the Bucs surely have a sky-high asking price, as he’s emerged as their best player and can be controlled via arbitration for another four years.

Reynolds recently told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he didn’t talk about a long-term deal between the end of the 2021 season and MLB’s implementation of the lockout that froze transactions for 99 days, although that shouldn’t be taken as an indication that the Pirates have given up hope of signing him, even in light of today’s report from Mish. Extension talks are often reserved for Spring Training, with teams preferring to spend the bulk of the offseason exploring free agent and trade possibilities. The Pirates explored a possible extension with Reynolds prior to the 2020 season as well, though those talks obviously proved unfruitful as well.

Mish adds, as he’s previously reported in the past, that the Marlins still hold keen interest in prying Reynolds from Pittsburgh, and longtime Marlins beat writer Joe Frisaro tweets the same — that Reynolds remains a target for GM Kim Ng and her staff now that the lockout has lifted. They won’t be the only team with interest, of course, as there are several other teams in the hunt for outfield upgrades. The Yankees, Astros, Angels, Braves, Brewers and Mariners have all unsuccessfully tried to trade for Reynolds over the past year alone, and there are undoubtedly other clubs who’ve done so more quietly. The Phillies, Guardians and White Sox are all expected to pursue outfield help in this second wave of offseason activity.

Realistically, the list of teams without any interest in trading for Reynolds is likely shorter than the list of teams who’d like to add him to their outfield mix. The switch-hitting 27-year-old finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2019 after posting a huge .314/.377/.503 batting line with 16 home runs, 37 doubles and four triples. He followed that with the quintessential “sophomore slump” in 2020’s shortened season (.189/.275/.357), but that came in a small-ish sample of just 208 plate appearances. Reynolds not only rebounded in 2021 but turned in his best year yet, batting .302/.390/.522 with 24 homers, 35 doubles and a league-leading eight triples. That 2020 flop looks like an aberration at this point, and Reynolds’ overall line .290/.368/.490 in 1400 big league plate appearances is immensely tantalizing for any club seeking outfield upgrades.

Of course, it’s also tantalizing for the Buccos to keep Reynolds and hope to build around him moving forward. Teams will undoubtedly try to persuade the Pirates to part ways with their newest star, but the Pirates’ rebuild is well underway and Reynolds will still be in his prime as prized prospects like Oneil Cruz, Henry Davis, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales and others percolate up to the Majors. The Pittsburgh farm is already ranked third in the game by the team at Baseball America, third by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and sixth by Keith Law of The Athletic. That system will be further bolstered when Pittsburgh picks fourth overall in this summer’s draft. Eventually, the Pirates will need to shift their focus to wins at the big league level, and Reynolds could be a huge part of that — or perhaps the final player moved on the path to building up MLB’s best overall farm system.

Reynolds: No Extension Talks With Pirates Prior To Lockout

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | March 2, 2022 at 7:25pm CDT

The Pirates probably won’t grab too many headlines of note in free agency once the lockout lifts, but the majority of Pittsburgh fans hope they’ll make another transaction of note: a long-term deal for All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds. Likewise, fans from just about every outfield-needy club around the league are hoping the Pirates move the 27-year-old Reynolds in exchange for what would figure to be a major haul of prospect talent. It’s not an either-or proposition, as Pittsburgh could just hang onto Reynolds and control him another four years via arbitration, even without an extension. Whatever path the team is planning, Reynolds himself tells Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he “didn’t hear anything” regarding his future from the team before MLB halted Major League transactions and barred players from communicating with their teams.

Reynolds was a focal point of the 2021 trade deadline, reportedly drawing sizable offers from the Braves and Brewers. The Mariners, Marlins and Yankees have each shown interest in Reynolds as well, and his market undoubtedly spans a good bit wider than just that handful of publicly known suitors.

It’s hardly a surprise that Reynolds has become such a coveted player. He followed a Rookie of the Year-caliber 2019 season with a rough campaign in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but Reynolds bounced back better than ever in 2021 and made that 2020 downturn look like an aberration. Reynolds has played three seasons in the Majors and, in the two full campaigns, has hit better than .300 with a near-.400 OBP and well above-average power. He made his first All-Star team in 2021 — a season that saw him finish out the year with a hearty .302/.390/.522 batting line. Reynolds belted a career-best 24 long balls, racked up 35 doubles and logged a career-high (and league-leading) eight triples as well. On the whole, the switch-hitter owns a .290/.368/.490 line in an even 1400 plate appearances.

Defensively, Reynolds has stepped up as the Pirates’ primary center fielder, although publicly available metrics provide lukewarm reviews of his glovework there. He registered +2 Outs Above Average this past season, per Statcast, but Reynolds also checked in with -5 Defensive Runs Saved and a -5 Ultimate Zone Rating. His overall defense in center rates closer to average when factoring in his entire career, but it’s also worth noting that Reynolds has 10 Defensive Runs Saved in the corners. Scouting reports based on the eye test surely provide a similar range of opinions, but it’s unlikely anyone views Reynolds as a major liability with the glove.

Reynolds is controlled through the 2025 season but will reach arbitration as a Super Two player this year, as he enters the season with two years and 163 days of service time (just nine days shy in that rookie season of reaching a full year). He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a $4.5MM salary for the coming season, and he’ll be in line for three more raises based on that first-time arbitration salary.

Historically speaking, there’s a wide swath of possible extension outcomes for players with between two and three years of MLB service time. Mike Trout (six years, $144MM) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (14 years, $341MM) are clear outliers that needn’t enter the conversation when trying to gauge a theoretical price point for Reynolds, but as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, there have been quite a few outfielders to sign long-term while in this service bracket — including a few who were Super Two players themselves.

Back in 2015-16, it was common for outfielders in this position to sign in the range of $25-30MM over a five-year period, as evidenced by deals for Adam Eaton, Ender Inciarte and Odubel Herrera. All of those deals included at least one club option. Minnesota’s Max Kepler moved the needle forward a bit further with his 2019 extension — a five-year deal worth a guaranteed $35MM, plus a club option for a sixth season. Kepler, like Reynolds, was a Super Two player, and his $3.2MM projected 2019 salary was a good bit lower than that of Reynolds. Kepler’s deal paid him $25.5MM for his four arbitration seasons, guaranteed him $9.5MM for one would-be free-agent year and also gave the Twins a $10MM option for a sixth season. Reynolds has a superior track record to this point in his career, so it seems fair to expect that he’d topple that Kepler mark by a fair bit.

The other potential comparable for Reynolds, and one that his reps at CAA likely prefer as a target to surpass, is the six-year, $53.5MM deal signed by Kevin Kiermaier in 2017. Kiermaier was also a Super Two center fielder with above-average power. His defensive accolades had already begun to pile up — Kiermaier won Gold Gloves in 2015-16 and a Platinum Glove in 2015 — but he hadn’t made anywhere near the same level of offensive impact as Reynolds has. He’d tallied 1313 career plate appearances at the time of his extension and owned a .258/.313/.425 line that’s a good bit shy of Reynolds’ career numbers. There’s also the simple fact that Kiermaier’s deal — which paid him $27.5MM for his arbitration years, bought out two free agent campaigns at a combined $26MM and contained a $13MM club option for a seventh season — is now five years old, making for a slightly dated comparison point.

The possibility of a long-term deal for Reynolds is complicated by the Pirates’ organizational spending habits. The Bucs have rather remarkably never topped a $60MM guarantee on any player, and that contract was handed out to Jason Kendall more than two decades ago. Even by the Pirates’ consistent low-spending ways, the long-term financial outlook is wide open. They don’t have a single dollar committed beyond next season, and Reynolds is the only player on the roster who’d be likely to command a significant arbitration payout in 2023. There looks to be opportunity for the Pirates to build around Reynolds as a franchise player, but it may require the single biggest expenditure the organization has made — at least since Bob Nutting took over principal ownership of the franchise in 2007.

A good portion of the fanbase would be in favor of such a move, with Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes expected to be part of a long-term core for the Pirates as they continue with a massive rebuild. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote over the summer that the Bucs weren’t inclined to trade Reynolds, instead “(intending) to build around him.” That might result in the front office opening talks whenever they’re again allowed to make MLB transactions, but that process apparently hasn’t yet begun.

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: Impact Players With A Chance To Move

By Steve Adams | February 11, 2022 at 11:00pm CDT

Earlier in the week, MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes published our list of the 14 players we consider to be the likeliest trade candidates following the ongoing MLB lockout. That list was the result of an extensive talk with Tim, myself and Anthony Franco, wherein we considered the possibility of more than 100 players and whether they could (or could not) viably change hands. While that Athletics-heavy list contained who we agreed to be the likeliest, it certainly didn’t represent every plausible trade candidate in our eyes.

As Tim noted within that post, we wound up sorting our list of plausible trade candidates into various buckets/tiers. The top 14 was simply the likeliest, regardless of contract or quality of player, but for the remainder of the exercise, we chose to categorize things based on how impactful a player might be to his new team. This, admittedly, is subjective. We didn’t establish a defined set of concrete parameters in labeling this group “impact” players; rather, we focused on mid-rotation (or better) starting pitchers, high-leverage relievers and hitters with recent All-Star-worthy performances (even if they didn’t necessarily result in an actual All-Star berth). Three wins above replacement in a given season wasn’t a firm cutoff, but we did ask at multiple points whether we a player had recently or could be reasonably expected/projected to turn in a 3-WAR season while sorting them.

Once these players were tiered, we further broke them down by whether they were legitimately plausible candidate to change teams or just someone whom other clubs would be trying to pry away. Basically, none of Tim, Anthony or myself would bat an eye to see Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas traded. Bryan Reynolds or Cedric Mullins, though? We’ll probably hear about teams trying to pry those players loose from their respective clubs (hence their inclusion), but a deal coming together seems like a long shot and would register as a mild surprise (if only because of the asking price and remaining club control).

As Tim explained, some of these players are interconnected. While the Reds have three starters who could plausibly change hands, we don’t necessarily think all three will move. It’s the same with the A’s roster. They could plausibly move multiple players — GM David Forst said amid November reports of a mandate to slash payroll that they’d have to listen on the whole roster — but that doesn’t mean the A’s are going to trade seven or eight players.

Anthony will follow this list up in the near future with a collection of solid regulars who we believe could change hands and/or will be in high demand following the lockout, but for now, here’s our second tier of trade candidates — legitimate impact players who could plausibly change teams but perhaps aren’t as likely to go as those listed by Tim earlier in the week…

Plausible/Decent Chance to Move

Luis Castillo / SP / Reds

The Reds’ offseason transactions since the close of the 2020 season have included a salary dump of Raisel Iglesias, non-tendering another quality reliever (Archie Bradley), trading Tucker Barnhart to Detroit, and placing Wade Miley on waivers rather than picking up a reasonable $10MM option. GM Nick Krall kicked off the 2021-22 offseason by declaring a need to “align our payroll to our resources.” Rumors of trades involving Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray (listed among our 14 likeliest candidates due to his age and larger price tag) and Tyler Mahle naturally followed.

Even if the Reds aren’t actively shopping the 29-year-old Castillo, teams will be calling to inquire, and Krall and his staff will be listening. The Reds probably aren’t going to shop him and simply let him go for the best offer, as they control him through 2023. They could always hold and market him again this summer or next offseason if no enticing offer materializes post-lockout.

Still, Castillo might be the best starting pitcher who could feasibly change hands. He got out to a brutal start in 2021, but over his final 22 starts, Castillo was excellent. He racked up 135 1/3 innings (six-plus innings per start) and notched a 2.73 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate, a 9.4% walk rate and a massive 59.9% ground-ball rate. Castillo’s ugly April/May results skew both his 2021 numbers and his collective numbers from 2019-21, but over the past three seasons he’s still posted a 3.61 ERA while fanning 27% of his opponents.

Maybe he’s not a true “ace,” but Castillo is a playoff-caliber starter for virtually any team. He’s projected to earn $7.6MM in 2022 and would be owed one more arbitration raise in 2023. Essentially, he’ll cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $20MM for the next two seasons — a bargain rate that should be reflected in a huge asking price from the Reds.

Tyler Mahle / SP / Reds

Mahle doesn’t have the name value that Castillo brings to the table, and his track record of success is shorter. Nonetheless, he’s blossomed into a sharp mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons, sporting a 3.72 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Unlike Castillo, he’s a fly-ball pitcher, which has at times bitten him at his bandbox of a home stadium; Mahle has given up 30 home runs in 227 2/3 frames dating back to Opening Day 2020, and 24 of them have come at home. He posted a 2.30 ERA away from Great American Ball Park in 2021 and, in his career, has a 5.09 ERA at home versus a 3.72 mark on the road.

A spacious home park would benefit Mahle perhaps even more than your average starter, although his penchant for yielding fly-balls will likely always make him a bit susceptible to the long-ball. Mahle has also been more of a guy who pitches into the sixth rather than completes six or seven frames (5 1/3 innings per start since 2020), but that’s increasingly common in today’s era of aggressive bullpen usage.

Mahle’s shorter track record may give some fans pause, but teams are likely comfortable projecting him as a quality arm based on the past two seasons of missing bats at a high level. And, that shorter track record has left him with a lower price point in arbitration, as he’s projected to earn $5.6MM in 2022. Like Castillo, he’s controlled through 2023, so there’s no immediate urgency to move him — especially given his affordable price tag. Still, teams will be calling, and the Reds can justifiably ask for a strong return.

Frankie Montas / SP / Athletics

Sticking with pitchers who have two remaining years of club control, Montas joins a long list of Athletics who could be traded post-lockout. Amid reports of a mandate to slash payroll, GM David Forst outwardly acknowledged back in November that the A’s will have to listen to offers on the majority of their roster.

Montas, unlike free-agents-to-be Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, is controlled through 2023. And unlike Matt Olson and Matt Chapman, his projected $5.6MM salary is a bit easier for the A’s to stomach. That’s why Montas is in this “bucket” of our trade candidate rankings, but even if he’s not as likely to move as some of his teammates, a deal is certainly still plausible.

Though Montas isn’t without red flags — he served an 80-game PED suspension in 2019 and had never reached 100 innings in a big league season prior to 2021 — it’s hard to ignore the quality results. Since 2018, Montas has pitched 401 innings of 3.57 ERA ball with a 24.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 43.7% ground-ball rate. His swinging-strike rate has continued to improve, and this past season’s 26.9% strikeout rate was a career-best. He’ll turn 29 in May, and he’s an upgrade for any team’s rotation.

Tyler Glasnow / SP / Rays

Glasnow is the most talented name on this list and, when healthy, looked the part of a legitimate ace with Tampa Bay. From 2019-21, Glasnow tallied 206 innings with a 2.80 ERA and fielding-independent marks to match. He punched out a ridiculous 36% of his opponents, walked just 7.8 percent of them and kept the ball on the ground at a 45% clip. Among the 114 starting pitchers who totaled at least 200 innings in that time, Glasnow ranks tenth in swinging-strike rate and second to only Shane Bieber in his combined percentage of called and swinging strikes. Only Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole had higher strikeout rates.

With that type of profile, two years of team control remaining and a projected $5.8MM salary for the 2022 season, a healthy Glasnow would be a no-brainer for the Rays to keep. Of course, Glasnow is not healthy. He’s likely to miss most, if not all of the upcoming season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. Arb-eligible players who miss an entire season due to injury typically sign on for a repeat of their prior year’s salary, meaning that in 2023 Glasnow will likely pitch on the same salary as 2022. Using that same $5.8MM projection, the Rays would be looking at about $11.6MM for one season of Glasnow, when his workload would need to be monitored coming back from major surgery.

Glasnow’s career-high innings total in the Majors is 2018’s 111 2/3, and his career-high for any professional season is when he reached 155 innings between Triple-A and Pittsburgh combined back in 2017. Realistically, the Rays would probably be thrilled to get 100-120 innings from Glasnow in 2023 — and an $11-12MM price tag on that modest total is rather steep for a team with Tampa Bay’s general payroll concerns.

Other clubs would welcome the opportunity to take that chance, however. We’ve seen two-year pacts for Tommy John rehabbers like Drew Smyly ($10MM with the Cubs), Michael Pineda ($10MM with the Twins) and Garrett Richards ($15.5MM with the Padres). Glasnow’s price tag is toward the lower end of that spectrum in terms of dollars, but the cost of trading prospects also has to enter into the equation. For an arm of this caliber, however, there are plenty of teams that would take the plunge.

Glasnow, for his part, recently told Chris Rose that he strongly hopes to remain with the Rays (YouTube link). Perhaps there’s a contract to be worked out that could benefit both parties, but Glasnow himself acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding his status and that president of baseball operations Erik Neander will have to listen to some offers if and when other teams come calling.

Josh Hader / RP / Brewers

Teams have been trying to get their hands on Hader for years, and the Brewers have steadfastly refused all overtures. The reluctance is understandable, as Hader has established himself as arguably the best reliever in the sport. In 282 1/3 career innings, he’s posted a 2.26 ERA and fanned exactly four out of every nine batters faced. No longer being used for multiple innings at a time, Hader posted a career-best 1.23 ERA in 58 2/3 frames this past season. The homer he allowed to Freddie Freeman in the NLDS isn’t a great note on which to close a season, but looking at Hader’s broader playoff track record, he has a 1.88 ERA and 23-to-3 K/BB ratio in 14 1/3 innings.

Trading the game’s most impactful reliever wouldn’t be easy for president of baseball operation David Stearns, but Hader’s value is at its apex. He’s also projected to see his salary spike to $10MM in 2022, with a fourth and final arbitration raise coming in 2023. Hader is dominant, but the typically low-payroll Brewers are flirting with what would be a record $123MM payroll. It’s not accurate to suggest that the presence of a second powerhouse reliever, Devin Williams, makes Hader expendable, but Williams’ excellence would at least slightly soften the blow of a theoretical Hader trade.

Milwaukee could still stand to improve its offense, and moving Hader could both free up some financial resources and simultaneously net some immediate help for the big league lineup. The Brewers don’t have to move Hader now, to be clear. However, they probably wouldn’t move him in-season if they’re contending — meaning it’s now or next winter, when they’d be marketing one year and a $15MM+ salary. That would net far less long-term value. It’s a fine line to walk.

Joey Gallo / OF / Yankees

Gallo popped 13 homers in 58 games following a July trade from Texas to the Bronx, but it’s fair to say the deal didn’t work out as New York had hoped. Gallo’s strikeout rate, which had dipped a bit with the Rangers, spiked to 38.6% as a Yankee. The resulting .160/.303/.404 batting line in 228 plate appearances is one of the more bizarre slashes you’ll ever see from a regular player.

Struggles in New York aside, Gallo was hitting .223/.379/.490 through 388 plate appearances in Texas and had bashed 25 homers in that span — putting him on pace for what would’ve been his third career 40-homer season had he not dropped off with the Yankees.

Gallo has as much power as anyone in baseball, and he’s made himself into a strong defender in the outfield corners (who can handle center from time to time). However, he’s projected to earn $10.2MM in arbitration this season, and it’d be understandable if the Yankees were hesitant at that price based on his post-trade struggles. New York is projected to top $226MM in luxury tax concerns, so moving Gallo could prove beneficial if owner Hal Steinbrenner is again intent on dipping beneath the threshold (wherever that’ll ultimately lie in 2022).

The Yankees have Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton as outfield options, with Estevan Florial serving as a possible reserve. Were they to give Gallo a change of scenery by moving him to a team seeking pop in the outfield, they could always sign a free agent to replenish some of the depth. It’s not clear that the Yankees will shop Gallo once the lockout lifts, but the New York Post’s Joel Sherman wrote about the possibility back in October, reporting within that as many as seven other teams tried to land Gallo at the deadline. If he’s on the block, there’ll be interest.

Longer Shots due to Asking Price and/or Remaining Club Control

Ramon Laureano / CF/ Athletics

Given Forst’s comments and the reports of forthcoming payroll reduction, it’s viable that anyone earning a salary of some note will at least be discussed. Laureano, projected to earn $2.8MM this coming season after his first trip through the arbitration process, also represents one of the few plausible center field options on the market, which should lead to plenty of teams inquiring on his availability.

Trading Laureano is more complicated than moving some of his teammates. He’s currently in the midst of an 80-game PED ban which, beyond raising questions about his performance to date, could come with major service time implications. Laureano still needs to serve 27 games of that suspension, which could impact his path to free agency. He currently has three years and 14 days of service time, meaning he’d need 158 days in 2022 to cross the threshold into four years of service and remain on track to hit the open market post-2024. There are only 187 days in a standard season, making it unlikely he’ll end up accruing the necessary time on the roster to get to that point. (Remember that off-days spent on the MLB roster count as a day of service.)

There’s always the small chance that some other factor impacts this trajectory (e.g. the ongoing labor talks, a potentially shortened 2022 schedule, a grievance filing), but as it stands, Laureano could wind up under team control through 2025 rather than 2024. An extra year of team control both heightens his appeal but also makes it tougher to trade him.

Beyond the service-time considerations, Laureano underwent core muscle surgery after the season, which adds another layer to a complicated scenario. But looking solely at Laureano’s numbers, he’s a difference-maker for a team in need of a center fielder (e.g. Phillies, Marlins, Guardians). A career .263/.335/.465 hitter with 25-homer pop, good speed and plus center field defense isn’t a hard sell.

Jesse Winker / OF / Reds

I explored Winker’s situation at length last week, with the bottom-line point being that it makes little sense to listen to offers on starting pitchers with two years of club control remaining (e.g. Castillo, Mahle, Gray) without doing the same on Winker. The 28-year-old slugger has had some issues with durability, doesn’t hit lefties well (though he’ll still draw his walks against them) and isn’t a great defender. That’s an odd trio of qualities to focus on when talking about someone’s trade candidacy, but the other side of the coin is more compelling: Winker’s production against right-handed pitching is at Bryce Harper/Juan Soto levels of brilliance.

Since 2020, Harper and Soto are the only two qualified hitters in baseball with a better mark than Winker’s 169 wRC+ against righties. In terms of more traditional slash metrics, he’s batting an outrageous .322/.417/.619 when holding the platoon advantage. With all the talent on the Reds’ roster, I think Cincinnati should be in aggressive, win-now mode. Krall’s early comments and their dealings since 2020 suggest otherwise, however, and if you’re going to listen on the other guys with four-to-five years of MLB service — why not listen on Winker as well? Cleveland, Colorado, Philadelphia and so many others are looking for offensive upgrades in the outfield corners.

Pablo Lopez / SP / Marlins

As is a common refrain on this list, the Marlins have no urgency to move Lopez, who’ll turn 26 in March. He was limited to 102 2/3 innings by shoulder issues last season and has yet to top 111 2/3 frames in a Major League season, but Lopez has been pretty darn good when healthy. From 2020-21, in particular, he’s compiled 31 starts and 160 innings of 3.26 ERA ball with a 26.4% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate. He’s in his first trip through arbitration and projected for a highly reasonable $2.5MM salary.

So, why even bother considering a move? The Marlins are still hopeful of landing some help in center field, and they’re also so deep in pitching talent that it borders on comical. The old adage that a team can never have too much pitching always rings in the back of our minds, but the Marlins aren’t short on options beyond Lopez. Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Nick Neidert, Cody Poteet and Daniel Castano are all on the 40-man — and top prospect Max Meyer is quickly rising through the minors. Injured top prospect Jake Eder will be back in 2023.

Jose Ramirez / 2B, 3B / Guardians

The favorite subject of so many hypothetical trade scenarios from fans, Ramirez does feel likely to end up traded … at some point. The question is whether now’s the time. Cleveland has him for $11MM this year plus a $13MM option in 2023. Given Ramirez’s elite play, there’s little chance of the Guardians extending him beyond that 2023 season, but there’s also good sense in Cleveland taking another run at the AL Central with Ramirez as a focal point. The pitching is still excellent, and while the lineup clearly needs another bat or two, the 2022 payroll is currently projected at only $49MM. There’s room to add some help for Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, and a deep farm system could also provide some in-house upgrades.

It’s also impossible to look at the situation without accounting for public relations. We’re only a year removed from Cleveland trading Francisco Lindor in a wildly unpopular move, and many fans’ anger with further fueled by the team’s name change. The newly-named Guardians are looking to usher in a “new era” of Cleveland baseball, and trading their best player for a second straight offseason isn’t a great way to foster good will.

If the first half of the season goes poorly, I’d expect Ramirez to be among the most talked-about names at the 2022 trade deadline, and there’d be a much stronger chance he moves at that point. With regard to the offseason, however, there’s just not enough urgency to push something across the line unless Toronto or another on-paper suitor puts forth an over-the-top offer. Even then, fans who’ve already purchased new Guardians gear bearing Ramirez’s name are going to feel rather jilted. It’d be tough for the front office to make this move now.

Bryan Reynolds / OF / Pirates

Reynolds is the best player on a last-place team that’s squarely in the midst of a rebuild so it’s hardly a surprise that he’s been in trade rumors dating back to the summer. Rival teams know the Pirates are open for business, and it’s only natural they’d try to acquire a center fielder capable of posting a .302/.390/.522 slash like the one Reynolds logged in 2021.

On the one hand, there’s an argument that the rebuilding Buccos ought to listen on anyone — and they surely will. But on the other hand, Reynolds is 27 and controlled another four seasons. His trade value won’t diminish substantially if the Pirates hold onto him, giving the fans at least one recognizable and marketable star player. Reynolds is a Super Two player who’s projected to earn an eminently affordable $4.5MM in 2022, so there’s no financial pressure. Everyone has their price in a trade, especially on a team like the Pirates, but for some context, that price reportedly included Mariners uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez (and more) when the two teams last talked. Baseball America currently ranks Rodriguez as the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball.

Cedric Mullins / OF / Orioles

Most of what was written about Reynolds applies to Mullins. The Orioles’ breakout star put together a 30-30 season last year while hitting .291/.360/.518 and is controllable for another four seasons — through age 30. No one expects the Orioles to contend in 2022, but they’ll get a look at top prospects like Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall this year. Reinforcements from the farm are on the way, and it’s feasible that by 2023 (and certainly by 2024), they could be on the cusp of turning a corner. Mullins will be under control, affordable and in his prime at that point.

The Orioles aren’t going to declare anyone on their Major League roster “untouchable,” but Mullins would only be available for a staggeringly strong offer. A Mullins trade doesn’t seem likely, but teams are going to at least try to force GM Mike Elias’ hand.

Ketel Marte / 2B, CF / Diamondbacks

Teams have been trying to pry Marte from the D-backs for more than a year. Arizona reportedly took the extra step of plainly telling rival clubs in early July — weeks before the trade deadline — that Marte wouldn’t be moved. That probably didn’t stop clubs from trying, and teams will be trying again post-lockout. The Marlins, Yankees, Mariners and quite a few others have at least been speculatively linked to Marte, whose team-friendly deal heightens his appeal. Marte will earn $8MM in 2022, and his contract calls for a $10MM team option in 2023 and a $12MM team option in 2024.

Dating back to 2019, Marte boasts a .318/.374/.543 batting line with 48 dingers, 79 doubles, 11 triples and a lowly 14% strikeout rate (versus a 7.6% walk rate). He’s rated poorly in center field, from a defensive standpoint, but is well-regarded defensively at second base. A 28-year-old switch-hitter with power, some speed, plenty of versatility and a grand total of $30MM owed to him over the next three years ($21MM of which isn’t even guaranteed) is wildly appealing. The D-backs, however, have shown little inclination to move him in the past, and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye echoed that sentiment in November, calling Marte a “cornerstone” player around whom the D-backs can build.

Zac Gallen / SP / Diamondbacks

Twenty-six years old and controlled another four seasons, Gallen is precisely the type of pitcher that pitching-needy teams like the Rangers, Twins, Nationals and so many others would dream of acquiring. A forearm issue slowed him in 2021 and limited his workload, but Gallen has now made 50 starts in the Majors with a 3.46 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate to show for it. He’s already been traded twice — going from St. Louis to Miami in the Marcell Ozuna deal before being flipped to Arizona in what amounted to a rare prospect-for-prospect swap sending Jazz Chisholm back to the Fish.

The D-backs didn’t even trade Merrill Kelly at this past summer’s deadline when he was a fourth starter with 1.5 cheap years left on his contract. It’s hard to imagine they’ll be excited about the idea of giving up four seasons of Gallen — particularly when his stock is down a bit, owing to last season’s arm issue. Gallen closed out the 2021 season quite well, with a 3.19 ERA and 52-to-15 K/BB ratio in his final 48 frames (eight starts). Sawdaye listed Gallen as a “cornerstone” player right alongside Marte, adding that the D-backs never plan to fully punt on a given season. Their signing of Mark Melancon for two years and $14MM meshes with the notion that this is not a team on the brink of a full-fledged teardown. Teams can try to nab Gallen, but it’d likely require some young MLB-ready talent going back to Arizona. Overall, the odds are low.

David Bednar / RP / Pirates

One of several pieces acquired in last winter’s Joe Musgrove trade, the 27-year-old Bednar stepped up and solidified himself as the Pirates’ likely closer in 2022. Through 60 2/3 innings, Bednar posted a tiny 2.23 ERA with a 32.5% strikeout rate, an 8.0% walk rate and a 41.4% grounder rate. Bednar yielded only five home runs all season (0.74 HR/9) and averaged 97 mph on his heater. He looks the part of a legitimate high-leverage weapon, and he’s controlled for five more years — all the way through 2026.

With such good results, a pre-arbitration salary and so much team control remaining, Bednar probably isn’t going anywhere. (As a bonus, he’s a Pittsburgh-area native.) The Pirates can’t (or at least won’t) simply trade every player who shows some semblance of value, after all. That said, the last thing most rebuilding clubs need is a high-end closer, and bullpen help is always in demand. Bednar will be 29 or 30 by the time the Pirates are realistically turning a corner, and the attrition rate on relievers is higher than anywhere else on the diamond. The argument for capitalizing on his value right now is pretty clear, but as with the rest of this “long shot” list, it’s hard to see a team meeting what would surely be a pretty substantial asking price.

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