Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds Turned Down Extension Prior To 2021 Season

By Steve Adams | March 11, 2022 at 10:11am CDT

Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds turned down multiple extension offers prior to the 2021 season, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter links). News of rebuffed extension efforts will only serve to further trade speculation surrounding Reynolds, though the Bucs surely have a sky-high asking price, as he’s emerged as their best player and can be controlled via arbitration for another four years.

Reynolds recently told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he didn’t talk about a long-term deal between the end of the 2021 season and MLB’s implementation of the lockout that froze transactions for 99 days, although that shouldn’t be taken as an indication that the Pirates have given up hope of signing him, even in light of today’s report from Mish. Extension talks are often reserved for Spring Training, with teams preferring to spend the bulk of the offseason exploring free agent and trade possibilities. The Pirates explored a possible extension with Reynolds prior to the 2020 season as well, though those talks obviously proved unfruitful as well.

Mish adds, as he’s previously reported in the past, that the Marlins still hold keen interest in prying Reynolds from Pittsburgh, and longtime Marlins beat writer Joe Frisaro tweets the same — that Reynolds remains a target for GM Kim Ng and her staff now that the lockout has lifted. They won’t be the only team with interest, of course, as there are several other teams in the hunt for outfield upgrades. The Yankees, Astros, Angels, Braves, Brewers and Mariners have all unsuccessfully tried to trade for Reynolds over the past year alone, and there are undoubtedly other clubs who’ve done so more quietly. The Phillies, Guardians and White Sox are all expected to pursue outfield help in this second wave of offseason activity.

Realistically, the list of teams without any interest in trading for Reynolds is likely shorter than the list of teams who’d like to add him to their outfield mix. The switch-hitting 27-year-old finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2019 after posting a huge .314/.377/.503 batting line with 16 home runs, 37 doubles and four triples. He followed that with the quintessential “sophomore slump” in 2020’s shortened season (.189/.275/.357), but that came in a small-ish sample of just 208 plate appearances. Reynolds not only rebounded in 2021 but turned in his best year yet, batting .302/.390/.522 with 24 homers, 35 doubles and a league-leading eight triples. That 2020 flop looks like an aberration at this point, and Reynolds’ overall line .290/.368/.490 in 1400 big league plate appearances is immensely tantalizing for any club seeking outfield upgrades.

Of course, it’s also tantalizing for the Buccos to keep Reynolds and hope to build around him moving forward. Teams will undoubtedly try to persuade the Pirates to part ways with their newest star, but the Pirates’ rebuild is well underway and Reynolds will still be in his prime as prized prospects like Oneil Cruz, Henry Davis, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales and others percolate up to the Majors. The Pittsburgh farm is already ranked third in the game by the team at Baseball America, third by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and sixth by Keith Law of The Athletic. That system will be further bolstered when Pittsburgh picks fourth overall in this summer’s draft. Eventually, the Pirates will need to shift their focus to wins at the big league level, and Reynolds could be a huge part of that — or perhaps the final player moved on the path to building up MLB’s best overall farm system.

Reynolds: No Extension Talks With Pirates Prior To Lockout

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | March 2, 2022 at 7:25pm CDT

The Pirates probably won’t grab too many headlines of note in free agency once the lockout lifts, but the majority of Pittsburgh fans hope they’ll make another transaction of note: a long-term deal for All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds. Likewise, fans from just about every outfield-needy club around the league are hoping the Pirates move the 27-year-old Reynolds in exchange for what would figure to be a major haul of prospect talent. It’s not an either-or proposition, as Pittsburgh could just hang onto Reynolds and control him another four years via arbitration, even without an extension. Whatever path the team is planning, Reynolds himself tells Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he “didn’t hear anything” regarding his future from the team before MLB halted Major League transactions and barred players from communicating with their teams.

Reynolds was a focal point of the 2021 trade deadline, reportedly drawing sizable offers from the Braves and Brewers. The Mariners, Marlins and Yankees have each shown interest in Reynolds as well, and his market undoubtedly spans a good bit wider than just that handful of publicly known suitors.

It’s hardly a surprise that Reynolds has become such a coveted player. He followed a Rookie of the Year-caliber 2019 season with a rough campaign in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but Reynolds bounced back better than ever in 2021 and made that 2020 downturn look like an aberration. Reynolds has played three seasons in the Majors and, in the two full campaigns, has hit better than .300 with a near-.400 OBP and well above-average power. He made his first All-Star team in 2021 — a season that saw him finish out the year with a hearty .302/.390/.522 batting line. Reynolds belted a career-best 24 long balls, racked up 35 doubles and logged a career-high (and league-leading) eight triples as well. On the whole, the switch-hitter owns a .290/.368/.490 line in an even 1400 plate appearances.

Defensively, Reynolds has stepped up as the Pirates’ primary center fielder, although publicly available metrics provide lukewarm reviews of his glovework there. He registered +2 Outs Above Average this past season, per Statcast, but Reynolds also checked in with -5 Defensive Runs Saved and a -5 Ultimate Zone Rating. His overall defense in center rates closer to average when factoring in his entire career, but it’s also worth noting that Reynolds has 10 Defensive Runs Saved in the corners. Scouting reports based on the eye test surely provide a similar range of opinions, but it’s unlikely anyone views Reynolds as a major liability with the glove.

Reynolds is controlled through the 2025 season but will reach arbitration as a Super Two player this year, as he enters the season with two years and 163 days of service time (just nine days shy in that rookie season of reaching a full year). He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a $4.5MM salary for the coming season, and he’ll be in line for three more raises based on that first-time arbitration salary.

Historically speaking, there’s a wide swath of possible extension outcomes for players with between two and three years of MLB service time. Mike Trout (six years, $144MM) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (14 years, $341MM) are clear outliers that needn’t enter the conversation when trying to gauge a theoretical price point for Reynolds, but as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, there have been quite a few outfielders to sign long-term while in this service bracket — including a few who were Super Two players themselves.

Back in 2015-16, it was common for outfielders in this position to sign in the range of $25-30MM over a five-year period, as evidenced by deals for Adam Eaton, Ender Inciarte and Odubel Herrera. All of those deals included at least one club option. Minnesota’s Max Kepler moved the needle forward a bit further with his 2019 extension — a five-year deal worth a guaranteed $35MM, plus a club option for a sixth season. Kepler, like Reynolds, was a Super Two player, and his $3.2MM projected 2019 salary was a good bit lower than that of Reynolds. Kepler’s deal paid him $25.5MM for his four arbitration seasons, guaranteed him $9.5MM for one would-be free-agent year and also gave the Twins a $10MM option for a sixth season. Reynolds has a superior track record to this point in his career, so it seems fair to expect that he’d topple that Kepler mark by a fair bit.

The other potential comparable for Reynolds, and one that his reps at CAA likely prefer as a target to surpass, is the six-year, $53.5MM deal signed by Kevin Kiermaier in 2017. Kiermaier was also a Super Two center fielder with above-average power. His defensive accolades had already begun to pile up — Kiermaier won Gold Gloves in 2015-16 and a Platinum Glove in 2015 — but he hadn’t made anywhere near the same level of offensive impact as Reynolds has. He’d tallied 1313 career plate appearances at the time of his extension and owned a .258/.313/.425 line that’s a good bit shy of Reynolds’ career numbers. There’s also the simple fact that Kiermaier’s deal — which paid him $27.5MM for his arbitration years, bought out two free agent campaigns at a combined $26MM and contained a $13MM club option for a seventh season — is now five years old, making for a slightly dated comparison point.

The possibility of a long-term deal for Reynolds is complicated by the Pirates’ organizational spending habits. The Bucs have rather remarkably never topped a $60MM guarantee on any player, and that contract was handed out to Jason Kendall more than two decades ago. Even by the Pirates’ consistent low-spending ways, the long-term financial outlook is wide open. They don’t have a single dollar committed beyond next season, and Reynolds is the only player on the roster who’d be likely to command a significant arbitration payout in 2023. There looks to be opportunity for the Pirates to build around Reynolds as a franchise player, but it may require the single biggest expenditure the organization has made — at least since Bob Nutting took over principal ownership of the franchise in 2007.

A good portion of the fanbase would be in favor of such a move, with Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes expected to be part of a long-term core for the Pirates as they continue with a massive rebuild. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote over the summer that the Bucs weren’t inclined to trade Reynolds, instead “(intending) to build around him.” That might result in the front office opening talks whenever they’re again allowed to make MLB transactions, but that process apparently hasn’t yet begun.

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: Impact Players With A Chance To Move

By Steve Adams | February 11, 2022 at 11:00pm CDT

Earlier in the week, MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes published our list of the 14 players we consider to be the likeliest trade candidates following the ongoing MLB lockout. That list was the result of an extensive talk with Tim, myself and Anthony Franco, wherein we considered the possibility of more than 100 players and whether they could (or could not) viably change hands. While that Athletics-heavy list contained who we agreed to be the likeliest, it certainly didn’t represent every plausible trade candidate in our eyes.

As Tim noted within that post, we wound up sorting our list of plausible trade candidates into various buckets/tiers. The top 14 was simply the likeliest, regardless of contract or quality of player, but for the remainder of the exercise, we chose to categorize things based on how impactful a player might be to his new team. This, admittedly, is subjective. We didn’t establish a defined set of concrete parameters in labeling this group “impact” players; rather, we focused on mid-rotation (or better) starting pitchers, high-leverage relievers and hitters with recent All-Star-worthy performances (even if they didn’t necessarily result in an actual All-Star berth). Three wins above replacement in a given season wasn’t a firm cutoff, but we did ask at multiple points whether we a player had recently or could be reasonably expected/projected to turn in a 3-WAR season while sorting them.

Once these players were tiered, we further broke them down by whether they were legitimately plausible candidate to change teams or just someone whom other clubs would be trying to pry away. Basically, none of Tim, Anthony or myself would bat an eye to see Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas traded. Bryan Reynolds or Cedric Mullins, though? We’ll probably hear about teams trying to pry those players loose from their respective clubs (hence their inclusion), but a deal coming together seems like a long shot and would register as a mild surprise (if only because of the asking price and remaining club control).

As Tim explained, some of these players are interconnected. While the Reds have three starters who could plausibly change hands, we don’t necessarily think all three will move. It’s the same with the A’s roster. They could plausibly move multiple players — GM David Forst said amid November reports of a mandate to slash payroll that they’d have to listen on the whole roster — but that doesn’t mean the A’s are going to trade seven or eight players.

Anthony will follow this list up in the near future with a collection of solid regulars who we believe could change hands and/or will be in high demand following the lockout, but for now, here’s our second tier of trade candidates — legitimate impact players who could plausibly change teams but perhaps aren’t as likely to go as those listed by Tim earlier in the week…

Plausible/Decent Chance to Move

Luis Castillo / SP / Reds

The Reds’ offseason transactions since the close of the 2020 season have included a salary dump of Raisel Iglesias, non-tendering another quality reliever (Archie Bradley), trading Tucker Barnhart to Detroit, and placing Wade Miley on waivers rather than picking up a reasonable $10MM option. GM Nick Krall kicked off the 2021-22 offseason by declaring a need to “align our payroll to our resources.” Rumors of trades involving Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray (listed among our 14 likeliest candidates due to his age and larger price tag) and Tyler Mahle naturally followed.

Even if the Reds aren’t actively shopping the 29-year-old Castillo, teams will be calling to inquire, and Krall and his staff will be listening. The Reds probably aren’t going to shop him and simply let him go for the best offer, as they control him through 2023. They could always hold and market him again this summer or next offseason if no enticing offer materializes post-lockout.

Still, Castillo might be the best starting pitcher who could feasibly change hands. He got out to a brutal start in 2021, but over his final 22 starts, Castillo was excellent. He racked up 135 1/3 innings (six-plus innings per start) and notched a 2.73 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate, a 9.4% walk rate and a massive 59.9% ground-ball rate. Castillo’s ugly April/May results skew both his 2021 numbers and his collective numbers from 2019-21, but over the past three seasons he’s still posted a 3.61 ERA while fanning 27% of his opponents.

Maybe he’s not a true “ace,” but Castillo is a playoff-caliber starter for virtually any team. He’s projected to earn $7.6MM in 2022 and would be owed one more arbitration raise in 2023. Essentially, he’ll cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $20MM for the next two seasons — a bargain rate that should be reflected in a huge asking price from the Reds.

Tyler Mahle / SP / Reds

Mahle doesn’t have the name value that Castillo brings to the table, and his track record of success is shorter. Nonetheless, he’s blossomed into a sharp mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons, sporting a 3.72 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Unlike Castillo, he’s a fly-ball pitcher, which has at times bitten him at his bandbox of a home stadium; Mahle has given up 30 home runs in 227 2/3 frames dating back to Opening Day 2020, and 24 of them have come at home. He posted a 2.30 ERA away from Great American Ball Park in 2021 and, in his career, has a 5.09 ERA at home versus a 3.72 mark on the road.

A spacious home park would benefit Mahle perhaps even more than your average starter, although his penchant for yielding fly-balls will likely always make him a bit susceptible to the long-ball. Mahle has also been more of a guy who pitches into the sixth rather than completes six or seven frames (5 1/3 innings per start since 2020), but that’s increasingly common in today’s era of aggressive bullpen usage.

Mahle’s shorter track record may give some fans pause, but teams are likely comfortable projecting him as a quality arm based on the past two seasons of missing bats at a high level. And, that shorter track record has left him with a lower price point in arbitration, as he’s projected to earn $5.6MM in 2022. Like Castillo, he’s controlled through 2023, so there’s no immediate urgency to move him — especially given his affordable price tag. Still, teams will be calling, and the Reds can justifiably ask for a strong return.

Frankie Montas / SP / Athletics

Sticking with pitchers who have two remaining years of club control, Montas joins a long list of Athletics who could be traded post-lockout. Amid reports of a mandate to slash payroll, GM David Forst outwardly acknowledged back in November that the A’s will have to listen to offers on the majority of their roster.

Montas, unlike free-agents-to-be Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, is controlled through 2023. And unlike Matt Olson and Matt Chapman, his projected $5.6MM salary is a bit easier for the A’s to stomach. That’s why Montas is in this “bucket” of our trade candidate rankings, but even if he’s not as likely to move as some of his teammates, a deal is certainly still plausible.

Though Montas isn’t without red flags — he served an 80-game PED suspension in 2019 and had never reached 100 innings in a big league season prior to 2021 — it’s hard to ignore the quality results. Since 2018, Montas has pitched 401 innings of 3.57 ERA ball with a 24.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 43.7% ground-ball rate. His swinging-strike rate has continued to improve, and this past season’s 26.9% strikeout rate was a career-best. He’ll turn 29 in May, and he’s an upgrade for any team’s rotation.

Tyler Glasnow / SP / Rays

Glasnow is the most talented name on this list and, when healthy, looked the part of a legitimate ace with Tampa Bay. From 2019-21, Glasnow tallied 206 innings with a 2.80 ERA and fielding-independent marks to match. He punched out a ridiculous 36% of his opponents, walked just 7.8 percent of them and kept the ball on the ground at a 45% clip. Among the 114 starting pitchers who totaled at least 200 innings in that time, Glasnow ranks tenth in swinging-strike rate and second to only Shane Bieber in his combined percentage of called and swinging strikes. Only Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole had higher strikeout rates.

With that type of profile, two years of team control remaining and a projected $5.8MM salary for the 2022 season, a healthy Glasnow would be a no-brainer for the Rays to keep. Of course, Glasnow is not healthy. He’s likely to miss most, if not all of the upcoming season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. Arb-eligible players who miss an entire season due to injury typically sign on for a repeat of their prior year’s salary, meaning that in 2023 Glasnow will likely pitch on the same salary as 2022. Using that same $5.8MM projection, the Rays would be looking at about $11.6MM for one season of Glasnow, when his workload would need to be monitored coming back from major surgery.

Glasnow’s career-high innings total in the Majors is 2018’s 111 2/3, and his career-high for any professional season is when he reached 155 innings between Triple-A and Pittsburgh combined back in 2017. Realistically, the Rays would probably be thrilled to get 100-120 innings from Glasnow in 2023 — and an $11-12MM price tag on that modest total is rather steep for a team with Tampa Bay’s general payroll concerns.

Other clubs would welcome the opportunity to take that chance, however. We’ve seen two-year pacts for Tommy John rehabbers like Drew Smyly ($10MM with the Cubs), Michael Pineda ($10MM with the Twins) and Garrett Richards ($15.5MM with the Padres). Glasnow’s price tag is toward the lower end of that spectrum in terms of dollars, but the cost of trading prospects also has to enter into the equation. For an arm of this caliber, however, there are plenty of teams that would take the plunge.

Glasnow, for his part, recently told Chris Rose that he strongly hopes to remain with the Rays (YouTube link). Perhaps there’s a contract to be worked out that could benefit both parties, but Glasnow himself acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding his status and that president of baseball operations Erik Neander will have to listen to some offers if and when other teams come calling.

Josh Hader / RP / Brewers

Teams have been trying to get their hands on Hader for years, and the Brewers have steadfastly refused all overtures. The reluctance is understandable, as Hader has established himself as arguably the best reliever in the sport. In 282 1/3 career innings, he’s posted a 2.26 ERA and fanned exactly four out of every nine batters faced. No longer being used for multiple innings at a time, Hader posted a career-best 1.23 ERA in 58 2/3 frames this past season. The homer he allowed to Freddie Freeman in the NLDS isn’t a great note on which to close a season, but looking at Hader’s broader playoff track record, he has a 1.88 ERA and 23-to-3 K/BB ratio in 14 1/3 innings.

Trading the game’s most impactful reliever wouldn’t be easy for president of baseball operation David Stearns, but Hader’s value is at its apex. He’s also projected to see his salary spike to $10MM in 2022, with a fourth and final arbitration raise coming in 2023. Hader is dominant, but the typically low-payroll Brewers are flirting with what would be a record $123MM payroll. It’s not accurate to suggest that the presence of a second powerhouse reliever, Devin Williams, makes Hader expendable, but Williams’ excellence would at least slightly soften the blow of a theoretical Hader trade.

Milwaukee could still stand to improve its offense, and moving Hader could both free up some financial resources and simultaneously net some immediate help for the big league lineup. The Brewers don’t have to move Hader now, to be clear. However, they probably wouldn’t move him in-season if they’re contending — meaning it’s now or next winter, when they’d be marketing one year and a $15MM+ salary. That would net far less long-term value. It’s a fine line to walk.

Joey Gallo / OF / Yankees

Gallo popped 13 homers in 58 games following a July trade from Texas to the Bronx, but it’s fair to say the deal didn’t work out as New York had hoped. Gallo’s strikeout rate, which had dipped a bit with the Rangers, spiked to 38.6% as a Yankee. The resulting .160/.303/.404 batting line in 228 plate appearances is one of the more bizarre slashes you’ll ever see from a regular player.

Struggles in New York aside, Gallo was hitting .223/.379/.490 through 388 plate appearances in Texas and had bashed 25 homers in that span — putting him on pace for what would’ve been his third career 40-homer season had he not dropped off with the Yankees.

Gallo has as much power as anyone in baseball, and he’s made himself into a strong defender in the outfield corners (who can handle center from time to time). However, he’s projected to earn $10.2MM in arbitration this season, and it’d be understandable if the Yankees were hesitant at that price based on his post-trade struggles. New York is projected to top $226MM in luxury tax concerns, so moving Gallo could prove beneficial if owner Hal Steinbrenner is again intent on dipping beneath the threshold (wherever that’ll ultimately lie in 2022).

The Yankees have Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton as outfield options, with Estevan Florial serving as a possible reserve. Were they to give Gallo a change of scenery by moving him to a team seeking pop in the outfield, they could always sign a free agent to replenish some of the depth. It’s not clear that the Yankees will shop Gallo once the lockout lifts, but the New York Post’s Joel Sherman wrote about the possibility back in October, reporting within that as many as seven other teams tried to land Gallo at the deadline. If he’s on the block, there’ll be interest.

Longer Shots due to Asking Price and/or Remaining Club Control

Ramon Laureano / CF/ Athletics

Given Forst’s comments and the reports of forthcoming payroll reduction, it’s viable that anyone earning a salary of some note will at least be discussed. Laureano, projected to earn $2.8MM this coming season after his first trip through the arbitration process, also represents one of the few plausible center field options on the market, which should lead to plenty of teams inquiring on his availability.

Trading Laureano is more complicated than moving some of his teammates. He’s currently in the midst of an 80-game PED ban which, beyond raising questions about his performance to date, could come with major service time implications. Laureano still needs to serve 27 games of that suspension, which could impact his path to free agency. He currently has three years and 14 days of service time, meaning he’d need 158 days in 2022 to cross the threshold into four years of service and remain on track to hit the open market post-2024. There are only 187 days in a standard season, making it unlikely he’ll end up accruing the necessary time on the roster to get to that point. (Remember that off-days spent on the MLB roster count as a day of service.)

There’s always the small chance that some other factor impacts this trajectory (e.g. the ongoing labor talks, a potentially shortened 2022 schedule, a grievance filing), but as it stands, Laureano could wind up under team control through 2025 rather than 2024. An extra year of team control both heightens his appeal but also makes it tougher to trade him.

Beyond the service-time considerations, Laureano underwent core muscle surgery after the season, which adds another layer to a complicated scenario. But looking solely at Laureano’s numbers, he’s a difference-maker for a team in need of a center fielder (e.g. Phillies, Marlins, Guardians). A career .263/.335/.465 hitter with 25-homer pop, good speed and plus center field defense isn’t a hard sell.

Jesse Winker / OF / Reds

I explored Winker’s situation at length last week, with the bottom-line point being that it makes little sense to listen to offers on starting pitchers with two years of club control remaining (e.g. Castillo, Mahle, Gray) without doing the same on Winker. The 28-year-old slugger has had some issues with durability, doesn’t hit lefties well (though he’ll still draw his walks against them) and isn’t a great defender. That’s an odd trio of qualities to focus on when talking about someone’s trade candidacy, but the other side of the coin is more compelling: Winker’s production against right-handed pitching is at Bryce Harper/Juan Soto levels of brilliance.

Since 2020, Harper and Soto are the only two qualified hitters in baseball with a better mark than Winker’s 169 wRC+ against righties. In terms of more traditional slash metrics, he’s batting an outrageous .322/.417/.619 when holding the platoon advantage. With all the talent on the Reds’ roster, I think Cincinnati should be in aggressive, win-now mode. Krall’s early comments and their dealings since 2020 suggest otherwise, however, and if you’re going to listen on the other guys with four-to-five years of MLB service — why not listen on Winker as well? Cleveland, Colorado, Philadelphia and so many others are looking for offensive upgrades in the outfield corners.

Pablo Lopez / SP / Marlins

As is a common refrain on this list, the Marlins have no urgency to move Lopez, who’ll turn 26 in March. He was limited to 102 2/3 innings by shoulder issues last season and has yet to top 111 2/3 frames in a Major League season, but Lopez has been pretty darn good when healthy. From 2020-21, in particular, he’s compiled 31 starts and 160 innings of 3.26 ERA ball with a 26.4% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate. He’s in his first trip through arbitration and projected for a highly reasonable $2.5MM salary.

So, why even bother considering a move? The Marlins are still hopeful of landing some help in center field, and they’re also so deep in pitching talent that it borders on comical. The old adage that a team can never have too much pitching always rings in the back of our minds, but the Marlins aren’t short on options beyond Lopez. Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Nick Neidert, Cody Poteet and Daniel Castano are all on the 40-man — and top prospect Max Meyer is quickly rising through the minors. Injured top prospect Jake Eder will be back in 2023.

Jose Ramirez / 2B, 3B / Guardians

The favorite subject of so many hypothetical trade scenarios from fans, Ramirez does feel likely to end up traded … at some point. The question is whether now’s the time. Cleveland has him for $11MM this year plus a $13MM option in 2023. Given Ramirez’s elite play, there’s little chance of the Guardians extending him beyond that 2023 season, but there’s also good sense in Cleveland taking another run at the AL Central with Ramirez as a focal point. The pitching is still excellent, and while the lineup clearly needs another bat or two, the 2022 payroll is currently projected at only $49MM. There’s room to add some help for Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, and a deep farm system could also provide some in-house upgrades.

It’s also impossible to look at the situation without accounting for public relations. We’re only a year removed from Cleveland trading Francisco Lindor in a wildly unpopular move, and many fans’ anger with further fueled by the team’s name change. The newly-named Guardians are looking to usher in a “new era” of Cleveland baseball, and trading their best player for a second straight offseason isn’t a great way to foster good will.

If the first half of the season goes poorly, I’d expect Ramirez to be among the most talked-about names at the 2022 trade deadline, and there’d be a much stronger chance he moves at that point. With regard to the offseason, however, there’s just not enough urgency to push something across the line unless Toronto or another on-paper suitor puts forth an over-the-top offer. Even then, fans who’ve already purchased new Guardians gear bearing Ramirez’s name are going to feel rather jilted. It’d be tough for the front office to make this move now.

Bryan Reynolds / OF / Pirates

Reynolds is the best player on a last-place team that’s squarely in the midst of a rebuild so it’s hardly a surprise that he’s been in trade rumors dating back to the summer. Rival teams know the Pirates are open for business, and it’s only natural they’d try to acquire a center fielder capable of posting a .302/.390/.522 slash like the one Reynolds logged in 2021.

On the one hand, there’s an argument that the rebuilding Buccos ought to listen on anyone — and they surely will. But on the other hand, Reynolds is 27 and controlled another four seasons. His trade value won’t diminish substantially if the Pirates hold onto him, giving the fans at least one recognizable and marketable star player. Reynolds is a Super Two player who’s projected to earn an eminently affordable $4.5MM in 2022, so there’s no financial pressure. Everyone has their price in a trade, especially on a team like the Pirates, but for some context, that price reportedly included Mariners uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez (and more) when the two teams last talked. Baseball America currently ranks Rodriguez as the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball.

Cedric Mullins / OF / Orioles

Most of what was written about Reynolds applies to Mullins. The Orioles’ breakout star put together a 30-30 season last year while hitting .291/.360/.518 and is controllable for another four seasons — through age 30. No one expects the Orioles to contend in 2022, but they’ll get a look at top prospects like Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall this year. Reinforcements from the farm are on the way, and it’s feasible that by 2023 (and certainly by 2024), they could be on the cusp of turning a corner. Mullins will be under control, affordable and in his prime at that point.

The Orioles aren’t going to declare anyone on their Major League roster “untouchable,” but Mullins would only be available for a staggeringly strong offer. A Mullins trade doesn’t seem likely, but teams are going to at least try to force GM Mike Elias’ hand.

Ketel Marte / 2B, CF / Diamondbacks

Teams have been trying to pry Marte from the D-backs for more than a year. Arizona reportedly took the extra step of plainly telling rival clubs in early July — weeks before the trade deadline — that Marte wouldn’t be moved. That probably didn’t stop clubs from trying, and teams will be trying again post-lockout. The Marlins, Yankees, Mariners and quite a few others have at least been speculatively linked to Marte, whose team-friendly deal heightens his appeal. Marte will earn $8MM in 2022, and his contract calls for a $10MM team option in 2023 and a $12MM team option in 2024.

Dating back to 2019, Marte boasts a .318/.374/.543 batting line with 48 dingers, 79 doubles, 11 triples and a lowly 14% strikeout rate (versus a 7.6% walk rate). He’s rated poorly in center field, from a defensive standpoint, but is well-regarded defensively at second base. A 28-year-old switch-hitter with power, some speed, plenty of versatility and a grand total of $30MM owed to him over the next three years ($21MM of which isn’t even guaranteed) is wildly appealing. The D-backs, however, have shown little inclination to move him in the past, and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye echoed that sentiment in November, calling Marte a “cornerstone” player around whom the D-backs can build.

Zac Gallen / SP / Diamondbacks

Twenty-six years old and controlled another four seasons, Gallen is precisely the type of pitcher that pitching-needy teams like the Rangers, Twins, Nationals and so many others would dream of acquiring. A forearm issue slowed him in 2021 and limited his workload, but Gallen has now made 50 starts in the Majors with a 3.46 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate to show for it. He’s already been traded twice — going from St. Louis to Miami in the Marcell Ozuna deal before being flipped to Arizona in what amounted to a rare prospect-for-prospect swap sending Jazz Chisholm back to the Fish.

The D-backs didn’t even trade Merrill Kelly at this past summer’s deadline when he was a fourth starter with 1.5 cheap years left on his contract. It’s hard to imagine they’ll be excited about the idea of giving up four seasons of Gallen — particularly when his stock is down a bit, owing to last season’s arm issue. Gallen closed out the 2021 season quite well, with a 3.19 ERA and 52-to-15 K/BB ratio in his final 48 frames (eight starts). Sawdaye listed Gallen as a “cornerstone” player right alongside Marte, adding that the D-backs never plan to fully punt on a given season. Their signing of Mark Melancon for two years and $14MM meshes with the notion that this is not a team on the brink of a full-fledged teardown. Teams can try to nab Gallen, but it’d likely require some young MLB-ready talent going back to Arizona. Overall, the odds are low.

David Bednar / RP / Pirates

One of several pieces acquired in last winter’s Joe Musgrove trade, the 27-year-old Bednar stepped up and solidified himself as the Pirates’ likely closer in 2022. Through 60 2/3 innings, Bednar posted a tiny 2.23 ERA with a 32.5% strikeout rate, an 8.0% walk rate and a 41.4% grounder rate. Bednar yielded only five home runs all season (0.74 HR/9) and averaged 97 mph on his heater. He looks the part of a legitimate high-leverage weapon, and he’s controlled for five more years — all the way through 2026.

With such good results, a pre-arbitration salary and so much team control remaining, Bednar probably isn’t going anywhere. (As a bonus, he’s a Pittsburgh-area native.) The Pirates can’t (or at least won’t) simply trade every player who shows some semblance of value, after all. That said, the last thing most rebuilding clubs need is a high-end closer, and bullpen help is always in demand. Bednar will be 29 or 30 by the time the Pirates are realistically turning a corner, and the attrition rate on relievers is higher than anywhere else on the diamond. The argument for capitalizing on his value right now is pretty clear, but as with the rest of this “long shot” list, it’s hard to see a team meeting what would surely be a pretty substantial asking price.

Marlins Have Continued Interest In Bryan Reynolds

By Mark Polishuk | January 26, 2022 at 5:02pm CDT

The Marlins looked into a Bryan Reynolds trade with the Pirates prior to the trade deadline and were rebuffed, though that hasn’t stopped the team from trying again. The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson reports that the Fish revisited talks with the Pirates before the lockout, even if “the odds are against” the chances of Reynolds ultimately heading to Miami.

In essence, nothing seems to have changed regarding Pittsburgh’s stance on a Reynolds trade, whether to the Marlins or any of the multiple other teams (including the Mariners, Yankees, Astros, Guardians, Brewers, and Braves) who have reportedly shown interest in the All-Star over the last seven months. The center fielder is the rare roster piece that the Pirates aren’t too open to trading, as the Bucs feel their next competitive window will open while Reynolds is still a productive regular. Reynolds is controlled through the 2025 season and would still seem to have several prime years ahead of him, as he only turns 27 years old tomorrow.

This mix of skill and contractual control also makes Reynolds a prime trade target, hence the long list of teams interested in his services. The Marlins are perhaps better equipped than most to meet whatever the Pirates’ gigantic asking price would be for Reynolds, as Miami is deep in talented young pitchers who are either close to the majors or have already made an impact at the big league level.

It isn’t surprising that the Fish would keep asking about Reynolds, nor is there any real harm in continuing to check in just in case the Pirates have lowered their demands. Discussing one trade could end up laying the groundwork for another deal, either now or down the road. Perhaps related to this idea, there’s obviously some rapport between the Marlins and Pirates front offices, as the two teams completed a notable trade in November that sent catcher Jacob Stallings to Miami for a three-player package.

Offense and position-player help in general was a stated need for the Marlins heading into the offseason. The club has thus far been aggressive in trading for Stallings and Joey Wendle (from the Rays), and Jackson writes that the Marlins have had trade talks with at least seven teams, though nothing was particularly close to being finalized before the lockout halted all big league roster activity.

In general, Jackson writes that the Marlins are “shooting high in their search for another impact bat,” and might not turn to second-tier options until the larger targets are off the table. Jackson feels a trade is perhaps more likely than another free agent signing, though Miami has been active on that front as well in signing Avisail Garcia to a four-year, $53MM free agent deal. A true center fielder like Reynolds might be preferable to playing Garcia mostly every day up the middle, but the Marlins are comfortable enough with Garcia’s center-field ability that corner outfielders like Kyle Schwarber, Seiya Suzuki, or Nick Castellanos are still on the club’s radar.

Yankees Interested In Starling Marte, Bryan Reynolds

By Mark Polishuk | November 11, 2021 at 9:31am CDT

The Yankees are known to be looking for center field help, and the club is considering options at the top of the free agent and trade markets. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Yankees and Mariners are among the teams interested in acquiring Bryan Reynolds from the Pirates, while on the free agent front, NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty reports that “Starling Marte is, at the very least, on the Yankees’ radar.”

This isn’t the first time that the Bronx Bombers have looked into Marte, as the Yankees had some talks with the Marlins about a potential swap back in July. Marte ended up being dealt to the A’s, while the Yankees instead augmented their outfield by acquiring Joey Gallo from the Rangers. As for Reynolds, New York joins the long list of teams who have reportedly asked about Pittsburgh’s All-Star center fielder in the last six months alone — the Astros, Guardians, Marlins, Brewers, and Braves have all been linked to Reynolds, and Seattle tried to deal for Reynolds prior to the trade deadline.

Aaron Hicks, of course, is ostensibly already the Yankees’ starting center fielder, so landing a proven everyday star like Marte or Reynolds would amount to a major sea change in the team’s outfield depth chart. However, Hicks has battled multiple injuries in recent years, including a wrist surgery in May that ended his 2021 season after 32 games. Hicks is expected to return to baseball activities in December and be ready for Spring Training, yet as GM Brian Cashman told reporters yesterday, “We just want to make sure we put the best team out there, so no guarantees right now for anybody….We just don’t have a pure center fielder at this point with the unknown of Aaron Hicks not playing for a while.”

If Hicks is healthy and Marte, Reynolds, or another notable starting outfielder was added, New York would suddenly be awash in outfield options. Aaron Judge obviously has right field locked down, Giancarlo Stanton would play every day as either the DH or in the corners, and the likes of Gallo, Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier, and Estevan Florial are also on hand.

In the event of a Reynolds trade, it isn’t out of the question that any of those latter three names could be part of the very big trade package the Pirates would demand in any Reynolds deal. None would be headliners in that trade package, however, as Andujar, Frazier, and Florial have all seen their star prospect status dim over the last couple of years. Gallo or Hicks probably wouldn’t have much trade appeal for the rebuilding Pirates, though either veteran could potentially be flipped in another deal if the Yankees were looking to create room, even if New York would likely have to eat a good portion of the $41MM left on Hicks’ contract.

Should the Yankees balk at Pittsburgh’s asking price for Reynolds, signing Marte wouldn’t come with any prospect cost, even if he might require something in the neighborhood of a four-year, $80MM contract. This type of spending shouldn’t necessarily be beyond a Bombers team that ducked under the luxury tax line last season, even if the Yankees additionally gave out some big dollars to address their needs at shortstop, first base, or perhaps in the rotation.

Mariners Tried To Trade For Kris Bryant, Bryan Reynolds

By Mark Polishuk | October 31, 2021 at 9:01am CDT

The Mariners’ trade deadline endeavors ended up focusing around pitching additions, yet the club also looked into acquiring a pair of top-tier bats. On a recent edition of the Talking Mariners podcast, 710 ESPN’s Shannon Drayer and James Osborn said Seattle tried to obtain Kris Bryant from the Cubs, with Drayer noting that the M’s “went in heavy on” their attempts to land the former NL MVP. Additionally, The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish reports (on the Times’ Extra Innings podcast, with MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer as a guest) that tried to pry Bryan Reynolds away from the Pirates.

Bryant is perhaps the more intriguing name, considering that he’ll be available in the free agent market in a matter of days. As Drayer mentioned, Seattle’s interest in Bryant as a trade deadline rental doesn’t necessarily mean the club would also be open to making him a long-term free agent offer. Signing Bryant would be expensive, but GM Jerry Dipoto has said that the M’s have more payroll to spend this winter, and the club doesn’t have much salary on the books for forthcoming years.

Tying into another recent Dipoto comment, Bryant would also fit the Mariners’ preferred desire for “a player who is adaptable and willing to move around the field.” Bryant’s ability to play either corner infield position and all three outfield spots certainly qualifies, and his presence would allow the M’s to mix and match their current options at those positions.

Assuming Kyle Seager’s club option isn’t exercised, Ty France and Abraham Toro are penciled into the starting first base and third base spots, but landing Bryant would allow either player to fill Seattle’s vacancy at second base. The Mariners have Mitch Haniger, Kyle Lewis, Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, and Jake Fraley set for outfield duty with top prospect Julio Rodriguez set to make his MLB debut, yet Haniger is the only experienced name in this group, and Lewis missed almost the entire 2021 season due to injury.

Since Dipoto has mainly built the Mariners’ roster via trades, however, Divish and Kramer believe the general manager is more likely to again focus on the trade market rather than free agency for any big-ticket additions. Signing Bryant or any of the top free-agent shortstops might not be as feasible for the M’s as picking up a notable trade target, and in fact, Divish predicts J.P. Crawford will be signed to a contract extension to further entrench him as the Mariners’ shortstop. (Drayer, for the record, believes Trevor Story would be willing to move to second or third base to accommodate, and “Story is somebody that [the Mariners] have liked for a long, long time.”)

Seattle could also use their financial flexibility to accommodate some deals, but of course, swinging a major trade that doesn’t involve absorbing a big contract would have another heavy cost in terms of surrendering prospects. In regards to Reynolds, Divish says the M’s have tried to acquire the outfielder on two different occasions, and in the most recent trade talks, the Pirates wanted Rodriguez in return. It seems highly unlikely that Seattle would part with Rodriguez (arguably the sport’s top prospect) in any deal, yet those are the kinds of asks that other teams would make for any premium talent.

Pittsburgh’s demand for Rodriguez also further illustrates the very high price tag the Pirates are putting on Reynolds, who was a popular trade target for many teams this summer. Reynolds is arbitration-eligible through the 2025 season, and that type of control combined with Reynolds’ outstanding performance in two of his three seasons makes him one of the most valuable trade chips in all of baseball. However, the Pirates have also indicated that they see Reynolds as a key member of their rebuild, and it isn’t likely Reynolds is dealt unless another team steps forward with a truly eye-popping offer, i.e. a Rodriguez-level prospect.

Braves, Brewers Made Pirates “Big-Time Offers” For Bryan Reynolds

By Mark Polishuk | September 28, 2021 at 10:46am CDT

You can add the Braves and Brewers to the list of teams who asked the Pirates about Bryan Reynolds prior to the trade deadline, as The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel hears from a source that Pittsburgh received “big-time offers” from the two clubs. Atlanta and Milwaukee join the Marlins, Indians, and Astros as teams known to have at least checked in on Reynolds’ availability, though it sounds as if the Braves and Brewers went a step further with their overtures.

Of course, Reynolds wasn’t dealt anywhere, as the Pirates value the outfielder as a cornerstone of their future plans. Biertempfel’s report comes within the context of a larger piece about which current Pittsburgh players are most likely to be on the roster come Opening Day, and Reynolds is seen as someone who is “not going anywhere.” Reynolds’ price tag will start rising this offseason in his first of four (as a Super Two player) arbitration-eligible years, the Bucs have him controlled through the 2025 season, and the team is surely hoping to be back in contention while Reynolds is still producing at a high level.

After a big 2019 rookie season and a sophomore slump in 2020, Reynolds has enjoyed a strong season as the Pirates’ everyday center fielder. The 26-year-old has hit .293/.382/.505 with 24 home runs over 628 plate appearances, resulting in a 136 wRC+ and 139 OPS+. While Reynolds’ hard-hit numbers are nothing special, his speed has allowed him to turn even moderate contact into base hits. As a center fielder, Reynolds’ glovework is either elite (+10 Outs Above Average, one of the higher totals of any player at any position) or slightly below average (-3.2 UZR/150, -2 Defensive Runs Saved) depending on your metric of choice, though the eye test would certainly seem to lean closer to OAA’s analysis.

There’s plenty to like about Reynolds as a contributor both now and in future seasons, which is why it was no surprise that so many teams were inquiring about trades. The Braves and Brewers stand out as particularly intriguing, considering that Milwaukee has already won the NL Central and Atlanta has a 2.5-game lead in the NL East with six games remaining, so the specter of a Reynolds trade will loom as an interesting “what-if” should either team fall short in October.

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is no stranger to big deadline moves, and while a Reynolds trade would’ve counted as a blockbuster, Atlanta was hardly lacking in activity. With Ronald Acuna Jr. gone for the season, Anthopoulos reinvented his outfield by adding Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, and Adam Duvall. That quartet has all hit well, helping carry the Braves from a 52-55 mark on August 1 to the brink of a division title. It is worth wondering if Atlanta’s inquiries about Reynolds led to the notable trade that the Braves did make with the Pirates, landing Richard Rodriguez for Bryse Wilson and Ricky DeVito.

The Brewers had a relatively quieter July than the Braves in terms of sheer volume of moves, though the Brew Crew had the benefit of a much wider division lead, and the team certainly picked up some solid offensive contributors in Eduardo Escobar and Rowdy Tellez. Installing Reynolds in center field ahead of the Lorenzo Cain/Jackie Bradley Jr./Tyrone Taylor combination would’ve certainly been a huge upgrade for Milwaukee’s lineup, and perhaps solidified the Brewers as World Series favorites.

If the Pirates had been moved to deal Reynolds, it would’ve surely taken an enormous trade package from any team, and it is quite possible Pittsburgh might’ve demanded a premium to send Reynolds within the NL Central. While the Pirates and Brewers combined on a pair of minor trades earlier this season, swapping minor league depth pieces is a far different matter than sending a star player to a division rival.

NL Central Notes: Indians, Reynolds, Winker, Brach, Hayes, Escobar

By Mark Polishuk | August 29, 2021 at 10:05pm CDT

The Indians were known to be looking at outfield help in the lead-up to the trade deadline, and The Athletic’s Zack Meisel reports that Cleveland checked in on a pair of major NL Central names — the Tribe spoke to the Pirates about Bryan Reynolds, and with the Reds about Jesse Winker. It isn’t known if any serious talks took place about potential deals, or if the Indians were just doing their due diligence and were quickly rebuffed.

The Pirates are reportedly viewing Reynolds as a building block and aren’t looking to move him (at least for anything less than a gigantic offer). As for the Reds, it wasn’t even certain if they were going to be deadline sellers at all, even though Cincinnati had only a 39-40 record at the end of June. However, the Reds have gone 32-21 since July 1 and now hold a 1.5-game lead over the Padres for the second NL wild card slot. Given how Winker has developed into one of the game’s best bats, it’s safe to assume the Reds won’t be very open to offseason trade inquiries about his services, short of any “too good to be true” proposals.

Marlins Discussed Trades Involving Bryan Reynolds, Brandon Marsh

By Mark Polishuk | July 31, 2021 at 9:45pm CDT

Prior to the trade deadline, the Marlins were looking for outfield help, and explored what would have been a pair of major deals. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of The Miami Herald report that the Marlins checked in with the Pirates about All-Star center fielder Bryan Reynolds, and also discussed a fascinating deal with the Angels that would have seen Miami acquire outfielder Brandon Marsh in exchange for Max Meyer, the third overall pick of the 2020 draft.

It’s probably safe to assume that almost every team in baseball at least asked the Pirates about Reynolds, who has delivered great results in two of his three MLB seasons. Reynolds has rebounded from a sophomore slump to hit .309/.388/.525 with 18 homers over 425 plate appearances this season, with an .385 xwOBA that ranks among the league’s best.

Reynolds turns 27 in January and is controlled through the 2025 season, making him one of the few assets that the rebuilding Pirates weren’t looking to move in general, and certainly not for anything short of a huge return. “Pittsburgh wanted more than the Marlins were willing to consider,” Jackson/Mish write, so talks ultimately didn’t pan out.

As for the negotiations with the Angels, other players may have been involved in the proposed deal, so it wouldn’t have been only a straight Marsh-for-Meyer swap. Such major trades of top prospects are rare, though this particular move would have addressed needs for both clubs. It isn’t any secret that the Angels are looking to add young arms, as evidenced by their two deadline day trades that netted five minor league pitchers, or their 20-player draft class consisting of nothing but hurlers.

Meyer might already be pretty close to the majors, after throwing three years of college ball and making his pro debut this year at Double-A. The right-hander has a 1.93 ERA over 70 innings for Double-A Pensacola and ranks 38th on Baseball America’s midseason top 100 prospects list.

As impressive as Meyer has been, he is only one of several impressive pitchers at both the MLB and minor league levels of Miami’s organization. With this surplus in mind, Jackson/Mish write that the Marlins are looking to deal a pitcher for “a front-line offensive prospect” like Marsh, who made his Major League debut earlier this month.

Marsh had an even higher placement on BA’s midseason list, ranking as the 26th-best prospect in all of baseball. His first taste of Triple-A ball was limited to 24 games due to shoulder inflammation, but he hit well over that limited playing time and earned his first look at the MLB level. Seen as a center fielder of the future, Marsh would be a natural replacement for Starling Marte up the middle in Miami, and the Angels might be willing to move such a player for premium pitching talent since L.A. has another big outfield prospect in Jo Adell.

Between Marte, Adam Duvall, and Corey Dickerson, the Marlins have traded three veteran outfielders in a little over a month’s time, making the position a target area for the offseason. Jesus Sanchez and the newly-acquired Bryan De La Cruz will be in the mix as potential starters, though Jackson/Mish write that Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison aren’t seen as long-term options. For Harrison, “his future with the organization is uncertain” after an internal matter that reportedly involved Harrison having to be restrained after an argument with Marte.

Astros Exploring Center Field, Bullpen Markets

By Anthony Franco | July 21, 2021 at 2:50pm CDT

The Astros are exploring the market for center field and bullpen help, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported over the weekend that Houston was among the teams with interest in Marlins star Starling Marte.

In addition to Marte, Houston “checked in” on the availability of Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds, according to Rosenthal, but it doesn’t seem he’s a particularly attainable target. As Rosenthal wrote in a separate piece earlier this week, Pittsburgh prefers to build around Reynolds rather than trade him this summer. That’s hardly surprising, since the All-Star outfielder is controllable through the end of the 2025 season.

There’s an argument to be made the Astros needn’t explore the center field market at all. While the position looked like a question mark entering the season, Houston center fielders (Myles Straw and Chas McCormick) have played well. The Astros have a cumulative .269/.344/.361 slash line at the position, resulting in a 103 wRC+ that ranks tenth leaguewide. They’ve also both rated highly defensively.

Indeed, it’s possible the Astros would only look to the top of the center field market if they were to make an acquisition. Marte and Reynolds have been among the best performers at the position this year, and Houston could explore the possibility of making an impactful add while being content leaning on Straw/McCormick if no top players come available.

That’d generally align with comments made by general manager James Click earlier this month regarding the club’s payroll outlook. The Astros narrowly stayed below the $210MM luxury tax threshold over the offseason. Click suggested the organization was free to go above the threshold this summer but didn’t seem inclined to inch above the line to accommodate marginal upgrades.

There’s a case to be made no center fielder who might be made available in the next week and a half has the potential to move the needle for a team more so than Byron Buxton. Rosenthal wonders whether the Astros might look into acquiring the Twins’ star center fielder, although there’s no indication they’ve done so to this point.

Of course, it’s not even clear Buxton will become available. Rosenthal reported last week the Twins were making a renewed effort to broker a long-term extension with Buxton but might consider a midseason trade if the parties can’t get a deal done. However, LaVelle Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that the chances of Buxton being dealt before July 30 are “remote.” Neal hears from Twins personnel who believed the sides were making progress on an extension during Spring Training before those talks broke down. (Jeff Passan of ESPN hears differently, writing that the gap in extension talks this spring “was far too big to bridge“).

Even if the Twins and Buxton don’t work out an extension in the next week, there’s no guarantee Minnesota would make him available in a trade. The Twins can keep him in Minneapolis through 2022 via arbitration, and the club has their sights set on contention next year. Buster Olney of ESPN reported over the weekend the Twins were generally disinclined to part with players under team control beyond this season.

Obviously, the center field situation remains in a state of flux, but the relief market should be more straightforward. There are a handful of productive relievers on non-contending teams, many of whom are affordable enough for Houston to stay below the luxury line if they’re so inclined. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates the Astros have a little more than $3MM in breathing room before hitting the threshold. Paul Fry and Cole Sulser (Orioles), Scott Barlow (Royals), José Cisnero and Gregory Soto (Tigers), Ian Kennedy (Rangers), Dylan Floro and Richard Bleier (Marlins), Ryan Tepera (Cubs), Richard Rodríguez and Chris Stratton (Pirates) and Daniel Bard (Rockies) are among the many quality relievers due less than that amount for the remainder of the season.

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