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Cole Hamels

Latest On Cole Hamels

By Jeff Todd | July 23, 2018 at 7:15pm CDT

7:27pm: Then again, a source tells Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link) that it’s “not accurate” to say the sides have discussed Hamels.

Of course, the Nats do have someone on hand to watch Hamels in action tonight, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports on Twitter. The Braves, Cubs, Phillies, Yankees, and Diamondbacks do as well.

Of course, there are other players on view as well. The Atlanta organization may be looking at lefty reliever Jake Diekman, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman suggests on Twitter.

As for the Nationals, Janes tweets that noted D.C. executive Dan Jennings is the rep in Arlington, though she suggests his appearance is “more due diligence.”

7:15pm: The Nationals are the latest team with some level of interest in Rangers lefty Cole Hamels, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Those two organizations are said to have engaged in “trade discussions,” though there’s no indication that a deal is particularly close.

It’s not surprising to see the Nats angling to deepen their rotation and Hamels is certainly a pitcher with whom the organization is familiar. Of course, it’s also a bit interesting to hear of this particular connection given a rather notable run-in between Hamels and the D.C. ballclub, though that was some years ago.

After a strong outing on June 19th, Hamels owned a 3.41 ERA. After four sub-optimal times out, though, he’s all the way up to a 4.36 mark that arguably better reflects his true talent level at this stage of an outstanding career.

On the one hand, Hamels is back to generating a strikeout per nine after a big fall-off in 2017. On the other, he’s giving up home runs on 20.2% of the flyballs put in play against him. ERA estimators mostly view Hamels as a solid hurler — he’s at a 5.06 FIP, 4.11 xFIP, and 4.06 SIERA this year — but there’s not much reason to believe that Hamels is the top-line starter he once was.

Perhaps there’s some added appeal in the fact that Hamels has a long history of good work in the postseason, even if his most recent appearance — a 2016 dud for the Rangers — did not go as hoped. All told, he has thrown 98 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball over 16 playoff starts. Hamels was also named the MVP of the 2008 World Series.

Contract will play a major role in the market for Hamels. He’s earning $22.5MM this year, a hefty rate for a sub-elite starter. He’s also due a $6MM buyout on a $20MM club option for 2019. Increasingly, it seems likely he’ll end up receiving the break-up fee.

Hamels can block trades to twenty teams, but the Nats are not among them. Neither are the division-rival Braves. The Atlanta organization has been linked loosely to Hamels in the recent past. Morosi suggests the Braves are indeed at least taking a look, though it’s not clear if there’s serious interest.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies Texas Rangers Washington Nationals Cole Hamels Jake Diekman

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Cafardo’s Latest: Yanks, Drury, Gray, O’s, Jays, Donaldson, Hamels, Marlins, Straily

By Connor Byrne | July 22, 2018 at 8:17am CDT

Third baseman Brandon Drury was in the package the Yankees offered the Orioles for shortstop Manny Machado, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. The Yankees’ proposal didn’t suffice for the Orioles, who sent Machado to the Dodgers for a five-player return on Wednesday. Drury has also been part of a 2018 trade, an offseason deal in which he went from the Diamondbacks to the Yankees, but he hasn’t been able to find steady playing time in New York. After entering the season as the Yankees’ starting third baseman, the 25-year-old Drury headed to the disabled list with migraines in early April, paving the way for rookie Miguel Andujar’s emergence at the hot corner. While Drury also offers a fair amount of experience at second base and in the corner outfield, the Yankees have set starters in those spots.

Thanks largely to the presences of Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Brett Gardner, Drury has amassed just 54 plate appearances with the Yankees and spent most of the season in the minors. Drury hasn’t done much in his limited work with New York, as his .184/.259/.286 batting line demonstrates, but he has posted a .294/.403/.447 slash in 233 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s also not far removed from a decent showing with Arizona, where he batted .275/.323/.453 with 29 HRs in 979 PAs from 2016-17, and comes with a cheap salary ($621,900) and three years of arbitration eligibility. Perhaps the Yankees will find a taker for Drury in the near future, then, though they’re surely not in a hurry to give away any depth.

  • Sticking with the Yankees, Cafardo relays that teams are scouting right-hander Sonny Gray, and some clubs are under the impression New York wants to trade him. The Yankees paid a high price to the A’s for Gray at last year’s trade deadline, but the move hasn’t worked out as hoped for the Bombers. Gray has taken sizable steps backward this season, with a 5.34 ERA/4.42 FIP in 96 innings, and may not be worthy of trusting in a playoff series should the Yankees get to that point. The 28-year-old’s making $6.5MM in 2018 and is only controllable via arbitration for one more season.
  • The Blue Jays “hope” to trade pending free-agent third baseman Josh Donaldson this summer, according to Cafardo. A superstar with Oakland and Toronto from 2013-16, Donaldson’s amid his second straight injury-plagued year and has only appeared in 36 games this season. Not only has Donaldson been on the DL twice (including since May 29 because of calf tightness), but he hasn’t offered his usual excellent production when healthy. The 32-year-old has hit a middling .234/.333/.423 in 159 plate appearances, helping to hurt his value on the trade market and hamper his future earning power. In the event Donaldson returns in the coming weeks, he could wind up as an August trade piece, though his injury problems, decline in production and lofty salary ($23MM) would make it difficult for Toronto to get much back in a deal.
  • It’s “likely” the Rangers will find a trade partner for left-hander Cole Hamels, writes Cafardo, who adds that the Phillies, Yankees and Braves undoubtedly have interest. The Red Sox may also be among teams with Hamels on their radar, per Cafardo. Phillies general manager Matt Klentak doesn’t seem keen on dipping into the trade market for starters, though, and it’s no lock Hamels would even be part of the solution for them or any other team. The 34-year-old’s struggles this season are well known, and his $22.5MM salary for 2018 and $6MM buyout for 2019 don’t help matters.
  • Marlins righty Dan Straily is drawing interest, per Cafardo. The 29-year-old’s not having a particularly good season (4.02 ERA/5.27 FIP with 7.24 K/9, 4.25 BB/9 and a 33.5 percent groundball rate over 78 1/3 innings), but he’s affordable and controllable. Straily’s on a $3.37MM salary this season and has another two years of arbitration eligibility remaining.
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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Miami Marlins New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Brandon Drury Cole Hamels Dan Straily Josh Donaldson Sonny Gray

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Trade Rumors: Hamels, Phillies, Rangers, Tigers, J. Iglesias, M’s, D-backs

By Connor Byrne | July 21, 2018 at 8:59pm CDT

Rangers left-hander Cole Hamels has made it known he’d welcome a return to Philadelphia, where he pitched from 2008-15, but a reunion appears “unlikely,” Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. The Phillies are trying to stay away from the starting pitching market in general, according to general manager Matt Klentak, who said Friday that the team’s rotation “has been the strength of our team this year.” It’s doubtful Hamels would serve as a legitimate upgrade over any of the Phillies’ starters, especially at such a high price ($22.5MM salary this season and then a $6MM buyout in 2019). Formerly a front-end hurler, the 34-year-old Hamels has managed a 4.36 ERA/5.06 FIP with an equally unappealing home run rate (1.73 allowed per nine) over 109 1/3 innings in 2018.

  • More on the Rangers, whose relievers are drawing trade interest, per TR Sullivan of MLB.com. Closer Keone Kela and lefty Jake Diekman seem to be garnering the most attention from other teams, Sullivan suggests. That’s unsurprising – after all, both are inexpensive and effective, and they’ve reportedly been on the block for a month.
  • Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias is of interest to “at least” one team, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free-Press reports. The 28-year-old, a pending free agent on a $6.275MM salary, is enjoying one of his most productive seasons at an opportune time. With 1.8 fWAR in 350 plate appearances, he’s on pace to surpass the 2.0 fWAR mark for the fourth time. The light-hitting defensive specialist owns a .269/.307/.385 batting line and an 8.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, which ranks second among shortstops.
  • Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and other reporters on Friday that the M’s are hoping to address their pitching staff by the deadline. “We’ve certainly had our feelers out there on a variety of different things that would help our pitching staff, whether it be bullpen or starting pitching,” said Dipoto, adding that “we would prefer to focus on pitching.” Dipoto’s less concerned about upgrading the Mariners’ position player group, which will soon get the suspended Robinson Cano back, though Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says (video link) the team’s “open to any upgrade” – even an offensive one. The same is true regarding the Diamondbacks, who are “exploring a wide range of possibilities,” Rosenthal reports. Although, the bullpen is the likeliest area that both Seattle and Arizona will address, per Rosenthal.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Detroit Tigers Philadelphia Phillies Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Uncategorized Cole Hamels Jake Diekman Jose Iglesias Keone Kela

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Trade News & Rumors: Trade Value Rankings, Dozier, Andujar, Britton

By Kyle Downing | July 21, 2018 at 9:51am CDT

Fangraphs recently released its annual rankings of the top 50 most valuable contracts in baseball, or the players who would have the highest value in a trade. High atop the list sits a pair of Indians infielders (Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor), while Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Carlos Correa round out the top five. The rankings take into account the amount of money each player is owed and the length of his contract in relation to his expected future performance. While the list is top-heavy with young stars (as one might expect), there are a few surprising names later down in the rankings, and a few top prospects even make the list.

Speaking of trades…

  • Twins second baseman Brian Dozier has drawn trade interest from the Brewers, reports Darren Wolfson of KSTP. That comes as little surprise considering the tight NL Central pennant race and the fact that Milwaukee’s second basemen have combined for the third-worst production in baseball to date. However, Wolfson also reports that another (unnamed team) has been “showing stronger interest”. For their part, the Twins (who now sit 8.5 games out of first place in the division) are open to moving Dozier.
  • The Yankees tried to acquire left-hander Brad Hand (who recently went to the Indians), but balked when they were asked to include young third baseman Miguel Andujar in the return, reports Andy Martino of SNY. That’s just one name the club had been targeting in a search for pitcher, but the prices for some of the available names (Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ, for instance), remain “insane” according to Martino.
  • The trade interest in Orioles lefty Zach Britton is “intensifying”, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Kubatko says that he expects Britton to be the “next Oriole out the door.” The Braves have thrown their hat into the ring recently, while the Cubs, Astros, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers and Giants have also been “in the mix”. As Kubatko aptly points out, the removal of Hand from the pool of available names should turn a lot of attention towards Britton.
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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies San Francisco Giants Aaron Judge Brad Hand Brian Dozier Carlos Correa Cole Hamels Francisco Lindor J.A. Happ Jose Ramirez Miguel Andujar Mike Trout Zach Britton

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AL West Notes: Mariners, Hamels, Parker, Anderson, Bedrosian, A’s

By Mark Polishuk | July 15, 2018 at 7:53pm CDT

Some news from around the AL West, as the division heads into the All-Star break with four teams over the .500 mark…

  • There was some buzz last month about the Mariners discussing a trade for Cole Hamels, though the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish hears that the Mariners’ “interest was greatly overplayed.”  Whatever talks the M’s and Rangers had about Hamels could have been simply due diligence on the part of Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto, who “checks in on every player and will never toss away any proposal immediately.”
  • The Mariners’ general need for pitching is further explored by Divish as part of his mailbag piece, as he isn’t sure Seattle will necessarily target a starter.  For one, a clear top-of-the-rotation arm may not be available.  The team’s search for such a pitcher is further complicated by the fact that some members of Mariners ownership and the upper-level management team aren’t keen on acquiring players who are only under contract for the rest of this season (i.e. Hamels or J.A. Happ, another pitcher linked to Seattle on the rumor mill.)  It should be noted that Hamels is technically under control for 2019 via a club option, though at a steep cost of $20MM.  As for a more controllable arm on a frequent Mariners trade partner, Divish doesn’t believe the M’s have the prospect depth to obtain Chris Archer from the Rays.
  • The Angels have been getting calls about such relievers as Blake Parker, Cam Bedrosian, and Justin Anderson, Ken Rosenthal reports in a video update for FOXSports.com.  All three right-handers have pitched well this season, with Parker stepping up as Anaheim’s first choice at closer in the wake of Keynan Middleton’s Tommy John surgery.  Rosenthal suggests the Angels will be open to selling high on these arms due to the “volatile” nature of relief pitchers on a year-to-year basis, though obviously L.A. would want a decent return since all three come with multiple years of control.
  • With the Athletics positioned to make additions at the trade deadline, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser figures the team will look to add pitching in some form.  Though the rotation is Oakland’s biggest need, Slusser suggests the A’s could “get creative” by bolstering its already-solid relief corps, which would allow the starters to make shorter outings before turning things over to the bullpen.  If the A’s do pursue a starter, it will be a mid-tier arm rather than a frontline ace — Slusser suggests the Twins’ Jake Odorizzi or Lance Lynn as the types of starters Oakland would look at obtaining, though there isn’t any indication that the A’s have specific interest in either of those Minnesota pitchers.
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Athletics Los Angeles Angels Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Blake Parker Cam Bedrosian Cole Hamels Justin Anderson

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NL East Notes: Phillies, Hamels, Marlins, Cespedes

By Jeff Todd | July 4, 2018 at 9:32am CDT

Phillies GM Matt Klentak discussed his approach to the coming trade deadline with reporters including MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. He emphasized a need “to understand how we got here and why we got here, and it’s because of our young players developing not only in the minor leagues, but at the major league level.” At the same time, he said he’ll be looking to “upgrade the team in the short term or long term via trade.” The Phils’ baseball ops point man indicated that he will indeed be willing to pursue pure rental options, though the organization will also need to “make sure that whatever trades we’re contemplating are appropriately balancing now with the future.”

  • It’s still unknown just how aggressive the Phillies will be in their first season of contention under the current front office regime. The club is one of the most interesting buy-side organizations to watch. Jon Heyman of Fancred dangles one intriguing possibility, tweeting that he’s “hearing some chatter” regarding the possible pursuit of Rangers lefty Cole Hamels. That said, Heyman also notes that he’s “unsure how serious the chatter is.” The long-time Philadelphia hurler is a clear trade candidate, though his big remaining guarantee, 2019 option, and 20-team no-trade protection figure to complicate things from the Rangers’ perspective. And it’s fair to wonder if the Phillies would set their sights on a more significant addition if they try to add to their rotation.
  • The Marlins don’t have many clear trade pieces, but certainly have a number of possibilities. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald provides an update on the organization’s approach, writing that there’s a willingness to deal players who are within a few seasons of free agency. At the same time, per the report, the Marlins are no longer especially motivated by trimming salary — which isn’t to say that won’t be a notable consideration, especially for higher-priced players such as Brad Ziegler. The veteran reliever is “most likely to be moved” of all the club’s players, Jackson notes. Of even greater interest, the team’s most valuable asset — catcher J.T. Realmuto — is said to be viewed internally as an extension target as much as a potential trade chip. It’s hardly clear whether a long-term arrangement is a realistic possibility, but there’s little question the Marlins will (and should) seek a hefty return for the mid-prime backstop.
  • While it likely won’t have much of an impact on the deadline, the Mets finally got some promising news yesterday on Yoenis Cespedes, who has been on ice since the middle of May. The veteran outfielder began running, as Mike Puma of the New York Post was among those to tweet, which would seem to suggest that his ailing hip is feeling better. It’s a lost season for the Mets, and Cespedes won’t likely feature as a trade candidate, but that doesn’t mean his return isn’t significant. With salaries of $29MM and $29.5MM for the coming two seasons, Cespedes will be a key part of the picture for the New York organization as it navigates a tricky stretch.
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Miami Marlins New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Texas Rangers Brad Ziegler Cole Hamels J.T. Realmuto Yoenis Cespedes

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Report: “Increasingly Possible” Cole Hamels Is Traded Before All-Star Break

By Jeff Todd | June 29, 2018 at 12:17am CDT

FRIDAY, 12:17am: The Mariners have engaged in some “dialogue” regarding Hamels, Morosi tweets, though there’s no indication at present that they’re particularly likely to end up with him.

THURSDAY, 8:37pm: It’s “increasingly possible” that the Rangers will strike a deal involving veteran starter Cole Hamels in advance of the All-Star break, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). This year’s mid-summer classic is scheduled for July 17th.

It has long been apparent that Hamels was in position to be traded. The Rangers stumbled out of the gates and never made up ground. Meanwhile, the 34-year-old southpaw has produced good results with good-enough peripherals. With just one option year left on his high-priced contract, he’s a clear trade candidate.

While this evening’s report hints at some movement, much is still unknown. It’s largely unclear just which teams have interest, though there are a limited number of “buying” organizations and most of them could stand to add a rotation piece. It remains to be seen whether any will really push to get Hamels on board well in advance of the deadline. There’s no indication that a single suitor has emerged to this point.

It is also not yet apparent how much of an obstacle Hamels’s contract situation will pose. He can block trades to twenty teams. While he indicated a willingness to facilitate a move, he also could still seek some additional inducement. Teams will surely not be enthused with the fact that Hamels is earning a hefty $22.5MM salary this season. There’s yet greater potential for complication from his $20MM club option for 2019, which comes with an unusually large $6MM buyout.

Of course, those matters wouldn’t be quite so important were it not for the fact that Hamels is no longer the pitcher he was when the Rangers originally acquired him. We examined some of these limitations a month back. For the most part, the situation remains the same: Hamels has restored most of his lost ability to get swings and misses, but he’s giving up far too many homers and has perhaps been a bit fortunate to carry a 3.61 ERA. Opponents this year own only a .266 batting average on balls in play (well below the mark Hamels has allowed in his career) despite making hard contact at a lofty 44.1% rate (by far the highest Hamels has permitted).

To be sure, Hamels still warranted a top spot in our recent list of the top fifty summer trade candidates. But that’s due in no small part to the fact that few high-end rental starters seem likely to be made available. Other pitchers — J.A. Happ and Tyson Ross, in particular — are arguably preferable given their strong numbers and cheaper contracts.

In fairness, there are some factors that point in favor of Hamels, too. He has a lengthy track record as a standout pitcher and had reeled off seven-straight 200+ inning campaigns before missing some starts last season. Hamels also has ample postseason experience, carrying a composite 3.48 ERA in 98 1/3 total playoff innings.

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AL Notes: Tanaka, Hamels, Kiermaier, Orioles

By Connor Byrne | June 9, 2018 at 10:02am CDT

Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka left his start against the Mets on Friday after five innings because of stiffness in both hamstrings. He’ll undergo an MRI on Saturday to determine the severity of the issue, though odds are he’ll require a stint on the disabled list, Randy Miller of NJ.com suggests. Tanaka suffered the injury on the bases, thus cutting short a performance in which he allowed one run on one hit and a walk and struck out eight. The 29-year-old’s amid a second straight underwhelming season from a run prevention standpoint (4.58 ERA), but losing him would still be a significant blow for the starter-needy Yankees, who already lost lefty Jordan Montgomery for the season (and some of 2019) earlier this week.

  • Given that it’s likely in the market for a starter, New York has come up as a speculative fit for Rangers left-hander Cole Hamels in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. However, if Hamels’ home run issues don’t subside, the Rangers will have trouble getting much back for him in a trade, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News observes. The 34-year-old is currently yielding 1.93 homers per nine, well above his career mark (1.04) and the American League average for starters (1.23). Hamels has still logged a respectable 3.86 ERA, but his secondary numbers are less encouraging. He’s not exactly teeming with trade value, then, especially considering Hamels’ ability to block deals to 20 teams and his $22.5MM salary this season (plus either a $20MM club option or a $6MM buyout in 2019).
  • Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier expects to return from the disabled list around June 20, according to Bill Chastain of MLB.com. The defensive standout has been on the shelf since suffering a torn ligament in his right thumb on April 15, thus limiting him to 48 plate appearances so far. Fill-in Mallex Smith has performed respectably in the aggregate (.271/.340/.351 with 11 steals in 211 PAs), but his production has dropped off a cliff this month. The Rays, meanwhile, have lost eight in a row since May 31 to fall six games below .500.
  • The Orioles will activate reliever Darren O’Day from the DL on Saturday, per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. O’Day has been out for over a month with a hyperextended right elbow. With Baltimore well out of contention, the 35-year-old O’Day could spend the next several weeks auditioning for other teams as the deadline nears, though he’s still under contract at $9MM for next season. Meanwhile, teammate and impending free-agent reliever Zach Britton could return as early as Monday, Matheson notes. Britton hasn’t pitched at all this season after suffering a ruptured Achilles during the winter.
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Baltimore Orioles New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Cole Hamels Darren O'Day Kevin Kiermaier Masahiro Tanaka Zach Britton

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AL Notes: Hamels, Yanks, Orioles, Miggy, Mariners

By Connor Byrne | May 27, 2018 at 11:02am CDT

The Rangers may trade left-hander Cole Hamels in the next couple months, and “it looks like the Yankees could be interested,” Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Although the Yankees are among 20 teams on Hamels’ no-trade list, the 34-year-old suggested earlier this week that he wouldn’t block a move to a contender. New York certainly looks as if it’ll contend all season, which would appeal to Hamels, and the team figures to end up acquiring him or another legitimate starter at some point this summer. General manager Brian Cashman pointed to his pitching staff as an area that he could address Saturday, before Sonny Gray continued his disappointing season with an ugly start against the Angels.

Regardless of whether the Yankees go outside for help, they should get back a rotation reinforcement, lefty Jordan Montgomery, in the coming weeks. Montgomery, who has been out since May 2 with an elbow strain, is “progressing” without any issues, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com tweets. The second-year man is three-plus weeks into a potential six- to eight-week absence, and he had been in the midst of another effective season prior to going down. Righty Domingo German has served as a Montgomery fill-in for three starts, the first of which went swimmingly and the next two rather poorly.

More on a few other AL teams…

  • There have been questions about the Orioles’ power structure, a group that includes general manager Dan Duquette, manager Buck Showalter, VP Brady Anderson and ownership (Peter Angelos and his two sons), but signs are pointing to Duquette making the calls this summer, per Cafardo. Based on Cafardo’s report, Duquette will run point on a potential Manny Machado trade, one that could provide long-term benefits for the Orioles if the GM secures the right talent in return. Whether Duquette will continue in his post beyond this season remains unclear, though, given that his contract’s set to expire and the O’s look primed to begin a rebuild.
  • Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera could come off the disabled list as early as Monday, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com tweets. The 35-year-old has missed upward of three weeks with a hamstring strain, which derailed an excellent start to his season. Cabrera put together a .323/.407/.516 line in 108 plate appearances before landing on the shelf.
  • The surging Mariners picked up another win Saturday to move to 31-20, though they may have lost a couple important contributors in the process. Shortstop Jean Segura exited after being kicked in the head, and manager Scott Servais said afterward that he’d enter concussion protocol, while reliever Nick Vincent departed with a strained right groin (Twitter links via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). A DL stint seems like a good possibility for Vincent, who ranks third among Mariners in relievers in innings (22) and has logged a 4.09 ERA with 9.41 K/9 against 2.45 BB/9. The Mariners will presumably know more Sunday on Vincent and Segura, one of their offensive catalysts. Segura has slashed .329/.345/.469 with four home runs and 12 stolen bases in 226 PAs this season.
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Baltimore Orioles Detroit Tigers New York Yankees Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Cole Hamels Dan Duquette Jean Segura Jordan Montgomery Miguel Cabrera Nick Vincent

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Trade Candidate: Cole Hamels

By Jeff Todd | May 24, 2018 at 8:43am CDT

The Rangers faced an uphill battle even before the season began, as they were chasing the defending World Series champions in the AL West. Now that the club is off to a 20-31 start, looking up at three other teams sporting winning records, it’s all but inevitable that the Texas organization will explore sales of veteran assets this summer.

There are a few interesting players to watch on the Rangers’ roster, with Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus certainly among them. But both of those veterans are currently situated on the DL, rather than the left side of the Texas infield, so it’s not the best time to look in at their market.

Instead, it’s southpaw Cole Hamels who seems the clearest possible trade piece at the moment. He’s a highly accomplished pitcher, with a resume that includes 16 postseason starts, who’s playing on an expiring contract. Through 58 2/3 innings on the season, Hamels owns a 3.38 ERA that’s nearly a spot-on match for his career average. While he’s no spring chicken at 34 years of age, that’s not much of a concern for a rental asset.

That’s not to say there aren’t any countervailing factors here. For one thing, Hamels wasn’t great last year, when he failed to record an ERA of 3.65 or below for the first time since way back in 2009. Even his 4.20 earned run mark, moreover, arguably required some good fortune. Hamels held opposing hitters to an unsustainable .251 batting average on balls in play. For the first time ever, he failed to record a double-digit swinging-strike rate (9.7% on the year) and struck out less than seven batters per nine (6.4). Hamels also hit the shelf for the first time in a long time owing to an early-season oblique injury.

There were some legitimate questions, then, entering the current season. Some, perhaps, have been answered. Though he missed eight starts in 2017, Hamels has otherwise been a paragon of durability, taking the ball thirty or more times in nine straight seasons (2008 through 2016). Unless something crops up between now and the trade deadline, teams will surely view Hamels as an excellent health bet over the final few months of the season.

But what kind of performance can be expected? In many regards, Hamels’s 2018 performance has encouraged. In particular, he has rebounded in terms of swings and misses (12.1% swinging strikes; 9.8 K/9). But there are some issues. Hamels has continued to hand out more free passes than he did earlier in his career. He has coughed up 1.69 homers per nine on a an 18.6% HR/FB rate. And he’s again benefiting from a low (.255) BABIP-against. The Statcast numbers indicate that opposing hitters have been unfortunate to record only a .317 wOBA, as their contact against him spits out a .352 xwOBA.

Taken together, it seems reasonable to view Hamels as a solid and reliable mid-rotation piece, but not a top-of-the-rotation arm. He’s producing a wide array of fielding-independent pitching numbers (4.94 FIP/4.12 xFIP/3.85 SIERA) thus far on the year, but all suggest that he’s more good than great at this stage.

Of greater importance, perhaps, is Hamels’s contract, which was originally signed with the Phillies just in advance of the 2012 trade deadline. The lefty is earning $22.5MM this season. Even if a contender feels that he’s worth every penny — which, as the above discussion suggests, may or may not quite be the case — that’s enough coin to be a potential stumbling block for teams that face luxury tax or other budgetary concerns.

There are some other contractual complications, too. The deal comes with a $20MM vesting/club option that carries a $6MM buyout. It’s not going to vest owing to the number of innings Hamels threw last year, but it’ll require some added financial wrangling nevertheless. An acquiring team could consider picking up Hamels at that rate for 2019, depending upon how the season shakes out, but also likely won’t want to sign up for the big buyout at the point of acquisition.

The Texas front office will not only have to sort out those matters, but will do so against the knowledge that Hamels has significant no-trade rights as well. He can be shipped to the Braves, Mariners, Phillies, Nationals, Rays, Cardinals, Cubs, Royals, and Astros without consent. Otherwise, the lefty will need to be consulted before a deal can be consummated. That may not necessarily prove a major stumbling block, but the presence of the option could come back into play if he’s not particularly interested in a certain locale for future seasons.

Certainly, the possibility for a tough-to-navigate situation does exist. While it still feels quite likely that Hamels will be dealt, it’s tough to say at this point exactly how it will come together.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals Texas Rangers Trade Candidate Cole Hamels

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