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Gunnar Henderson Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson has won Rookie of the Year for the American League, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Tanner Bibee of the Guardians placed second while Triston Casas of the Red Sox placed third.

Henderson got to make his major league debut last year as a September call-up, just a couple of months after his 21st birthday. Despite his young age, he held himself incredibly well. His 25.8% strikeout rate was a bit above average, but he also drew walks at a 12.1% clip. His .259/.348/.440 batting line last year resulted in a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% above league average in that time. That call-up gave him a chance to get a taste of the majors while maintaining rookie status, since he didn’t get to 130 at-bat or 45 days on the roster.

The O’s came into 2023 looking to firmly stamp out their rebuild and make the postseason for the first time since 2016. Henderson’s first full season helped them do just that, as he hit 28 home runs and stole 10 bases. His walk rate dipped to 9%, though that was still above league average. His .259/.348/.440 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 123. He split his time between shortstop and third base, getting strong grades at both positions. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.6 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference had him at 6.2. The Orioles, meanwhile, won 101 games and took the top spot in the American League East.

The award is surely gratifying for Henderson and the O’s in and of itself, but there are other implications of this news. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Henderson, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #1 prospect on all three of those lists.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Henderson did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the O’s, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Bibee and Casas also had strong seasons, but not enough to catch Henderson. The former made 25 starts for the Guards with a 2.98 earned run average, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He wasn’t promoted until late April but will earn a full service year by getting second place in this voting. But since he didn’t get that service year the traditional way, the Guards won’t get a bonus draft pick. Casas hit 24 home runs and walked in 13.9% of his plate appearances, leading to a .263/.367/.490 batting line and 129 wRC+. He was in the majors all year, so the voting won’t impact him from a service time perspective, but he falls just shy of getting the Red Sox a bonus pick.

Henderson was a unanimous selection, per the full vote tally from the BBWAA, getting all 30 first-place votes. Bibee got 20 of the second-place votes while Casas got six. Other players receiving votes were Josh Jung of the Rangers, Yainer Diaz of the Astros, Masataka Yoshida of the Red Sox, Edouard Julien of the Twins and Anthony Volpe of the Yankees.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Could Pursue First Base Addition

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The Twins snapped the longest postseason losing streak in North American sports this year when they swept the Blue Jays out of the Wild Card round before falling 3-1 in an ALDS loss to the Astros. They’ll head into the offseason facing the potential loss of Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray, but there are also other areas of need on the roster. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey indicated to Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that his club could also be in the market for an addition to their first base mix.

“With [Alex Kirilloff] and with potential external additions, it’ll probably be an area we do spend some time this offseason from free agent or trade perspective,” Falvey said of his team’s first base outlook.

Kirilloff, a longtime top prospect whose career trajectory has been altered by persistent wrist and shoulder injuries, served as the Twins’ primary first baseman when healthy in 2023. Free agents Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo also logged significant time at first base. There’s yet to be any indication the Twins plan to re-sign either. Gallo, in particular, seems likely to depart.

The 26-year-old Kirilloff turned in a very sound .270/.348/.445 batting line with 11 home runs in 319 plate appearances, but he also had multiple shoulder-related IL stints before ultimately undergoing surgery at season’s end. That procedure, Nightengale writes, was actually less invasive than the Twins originally anticipated, and he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

That said, it’s hard to bank on Kirilloff assuming the position on a full-time basis next year. The Twins thought highly enough of the former first-round pick to give him his MLB debut during the 2020 postseason, and he’s now spent parts of three seasons on the MLB roster. However, this past campaign’s 88 games and 319 plate appearances are both career-highs. Kirilloff’s 2021 and 2022 seasons ended with wrist surgery.

There’s little doubting Kirilloff’s raw abilities. He was the 15th overall draft pick in 2016 and hit a combined .324/.381/.525 in the minors — including a gaudy .366/.458/.673 in 53 Triple-A games. Prior to his MLB debut, he peaked as the game’s No. 15 overall prospect at Baseball America and climbed as high as ninth on MLB.com’s top 100 rankings. Even with the past wrist issues and ongoing shoulder troubles in ’23, he was a well above-average hitter. But his ability to remain on the field and the extent to which he can recover from a third notable surgery in three years are both open questions.

The Twins have alternatives at the position. Rookie infielder Edouard Julien, a top-100 prospect in his own right, hit the big league scene with a .263/.381/.459 batting line and 16 home runs as a rookie in 408 plate appearances this season. He’s primarily been a second baseman, but there are questions about his ability to handle that spot long term and Julien already logged some time at first base. With Jorge Polanco entrenched at second base, slotting Julien in at first base and designated hitter could get his bat into the lineup more regularly. Of course, the Twins’ wealth of young infield talent makes Polanco an obvious trade candidate, and if he’s moved, that’d clear a spot for Julien at second base and Kirilloff and/or an external acquisition at first base.

Also in the mix is Jose Miranda — yet another former top prospect who broke through with a terrific rookie showing in 2022 before regressing in 2023 and eventually requiring a shoulder surgery of his own. Miranda batted .268/.325/.426 with 15 home runs in 125 games as a rookie in ’22 but limped to a .211/.263/.303 line in 40 big league games this past season. His work in Triple-A wasn’t any better, and he wound up being diagnosed with a shoulder impingement that resulted in September surgery. Still just 25 years of age, a healthy Miranda could work his way back into the mix as well.

Suffice it to say, the Twins aren’t short on in-house options. The looming possibility of a Polanco trade (thus opening second base for Julien), uncertainty surrounding the health/durability of Kirilloff and Miranda, and the hopeful opening of some at-bats at the designated hitter position could all pave the way for Minnesota to bring in a bat, though. Byron Buxton spent the bulk of the 2023 season as a designated hitter due to lingering complications from last winter’s knee surgery, but the Twins are optimistic that he’ll be able to return to center field in 2024, per Falvey. That’d be a boon both offensively and defensively, if he’s able to do so.

The offseason market at first base isn’t exactly deep in terms of star power, though Rhys Hoskins stands as a prominent name on the open market (assuming his own recovery from a torn ACL progresses as expected). Brandon Belt is also available, though he’s a strict platoon option and bats from the same side of the plate as the left-handed Kirilloff. Buy-low options include Garrett Cooper and old friend C.J. Cron. Pete Alonso’s name has been kicked around the trade market, but Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said this week that he does not anticipate trading the star slugger (link via Will Sammon of The Athletic).

The Twins are expected to reduce payroll this coming season, albeit not drastically so. Revenue losses stemming from the collapse of their television deal under Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy create uncertainty in Minnesota, where Roster Resource currently projects them for a $125MM payroll. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the team’s payroll would likely settle between $125-140MM. Trading Polanco ($10.5MM), Max Kepler ($10MM) and/or Christian Vazquez ($10MM) would create some breathing room, as could a trade or non-tender of utility infielder Kyle Farmer (projected $6.6MM arbitration salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

Twins Notes: Correa, Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Buxton

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Carlos Correa was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis and a muscle strain in his left foot back in late May. The Twins shortstop has played through the issue, avoiding the injured list all season.

It hasn’t been a banner year for the two-time All-Star, whose .226/.309/.398 line through 511 plate appearances is among the worst of his career. It’s not hard to connect the dots, as Correa has spoken about playing through continued discomfort on a few occasions.

Correa expanded on the injury in a recent chat with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The 28-year-old called it the most painful issue through which he’s played in his career. Correa rather candidly told Rosenthal he “probably would have sat out more time to let it heal” were he an impending free agent but indicated he feels the team needs him to remain as a steadying presence on the active roster — even if his production is below his typical level.

Skipper Rocco Baldelli has pencilled Correa in at shortstop for 117 of Minnesota’s 132 games. He’s logged over 1000 innings, rating as a marginally above-average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average. Public metrics have loved Correa’s glove in previous seasons, none more so than in 2021 when he rated anywhere nine and 20 runs above average by measure of OAA and DRS en route to a Platinum Glove award. It stands to reason the foot injury is also playing a role in limiting his mobility on that side of the ball, as Correa’s sprint speed is at a personal-low level.

Perhaps the Twins’ place in the standings will enable them to sprinkle in a few more rest days. Minnesotas optioned starter Bailey Ober to Triple-A this evening in a move that seems largely motivated by a desire to keep an eye on his personal-high innings total. After beating the Guardians tonight, the Twins hold a seven-game margin in the AL Central. While the division isn’t quite sewn up, it’s possible they’ll be in position to ease off a lot of their regulars by the second half of September to keep players fresh headed into the postseason.

While the weakness of the division is a big reason for Minnesota’s comfortable place in the standings, the Twins have also simply played well of late. They’re 24-17 in the second half and have matched their season high by pulling six games above .500 at 69-63. As Aaron Gleeman writes for The Athletic, the Twins’ strong rookie core has played a big role in that success.

Minnesota has received well above-average play from each of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. None of that trio began the season on the active roster. Lewis started on the injured list rehabbing from a second straight year with a torn ACL. Julien and Wallner opened the year in Triple-A. They’re now all healthy and playing regular roles thanks to their strong performances.

Lewis has secured the third base job, which had been up for grabs after José Miranda struggled early on. The former first overall pick is up to a .317/.366/.521 line through 153 plate appearances after tonight’s game, in which he hit a grand slam off Cleveland righty Xzavion Curry. Lewis had connected on a grand slam in yesterday’s extra-inning win over Texas as well, becoming the first player in franchise history to hit one in consecutive contests.

Julien is working as the primary designated hitter. The lefty-hitting infielder had manned second base while Jorge Polanco was on the shelf. While he struggled defensively, he’s been an excellent offensive player, putting together a .285/.378/.478 line in 292 trips to the plate. Wallner, meanwhile, has grabbed the left field corner opposite Max Kepler with 10 homers, six doubles and a triple through 156 plate appearances. That has pushed the struggling Joey Gallo into a platoon center field role alongside Michael A. Taylor.

Minnesota could soon welcome Byron Buxton back into the outfield rotation. The Twins had limited the Gold Glove winner to designated hitter early in the season in an effort to keep him healthy. Buxton nevertheless landed on the injured list with a hamstring strain a few weeks ago, but he doesn’t seem far off a return. He went through an on-field workout today and could soon head on a minor league rehab stint, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North. The Twins are expected to give Buxton center field reps on that assignment as they evaluate his readiness to handle defensive work for the final few weeks.

The Twins’ Breakout Rookie

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The Twins have rattled off five consecutive wins, pushing themselves a season-high six games above .500. Paired with the Guardians dropping eight of their last 10, Minnesota has stretched their lead in the AL Central to 5.5 games. All of a sudden, only the Braves have a larger cushion at the top of a division.

That’s somewhat a reflection of an otherwise dismal AL Central, of course. Yet Minnesota has a 19-12 record since the start of June and the sixth-best run differential overall (+53) among American League clubs. They’re playing like a legitimate playoff team.

Among the reasons for Minnesota’s improved production of late: a somewhat quiet building case for Rookie of the Year consideration. Edouard Julien owns a .299/.389/.512 batting line through his first 235 plate appearances. Among the 43 first-year players with 200+ trips to the dish, none is reaching base at a higher clip. Only Corbin Carroll, Matt McLain, Yainer Diaz and Luke Raley have a better slugging mark.

Julien has only played 65 games, roughly three-fifths of the action logged by the likes of Josh Jung and Gunnar Henderson. He’d be behind that duo in Rookie of the Year consideration if the season ended today. There’s a chance for Julien to close that gap in the season’s final couple months (particularly with Jung set to miss six weeks thanks to a thumb fracture that’ll require surgery).

Award consideration aside, the more meaningful development is the introduction of a middle-of-the-order caliber bat into Minnesota’s lineup. That didn’t come out of nowhere. The lefty-swinging Julien had been regarded as one of the more talented offensive players in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut. There’s some amount of uncertainty with any prospect before they get exposure to big league pitching, though, and Julien has only 38 games of Triple-A experience under his belt.

The 24-year-old hasn’t had any issues against MLB pitching thus far. His results in the minors had been built on power and an extremely patient plate approach. He’s showing the same profile at the MLB level. Julien almost never chases pitches off the plate; his 18.9% swing rate on offerings outside the strike zone is lowest among all MLB hitters with 200+ plate appearances. Julien is swinging at pitches within the zone at a roughly average clip. That’s generally the approach one would want to see from a hitter, particularly a rookie — patient without getting too passive.

Julien’s comfort working deep counts is naturally going to come with a fair number of strikeouts. There’s also just some swing-and-miss in his game; he’s made contact on 72.2% of his swings, roughly four percentage points below the 76.4% league average. Julien will probably strike out too often to be a .300 hitter. His .410 average on balls in play is bound for some regression.

There’s no need for Julien to run a near-.300 average to be a productive player, though. He’s going to work plenty of walks to keep his OBP floor high. Prospect evaluators have credited him with above-average to plus power potential. Julien has shown that at the MLB level, connecting on 10 homers with a quality 42.9% hard contact percentage.

The remaining concern in Julien’s offensive profile is probably his limited track record against same-handed pitching. The Twins have shielded him against southpaws, keeping him to 29 MLB plate appearances thus far. In 2022, he had marked platoon splits in Double-A. Julien hit .332/.465/.566 against righties in the minors last season compared to a .210/.373/.276 showing versus left-handers.

For now, the Twins are happy with a rookie who’s mashing right-handed pitching. The Twins have struggled as a team against southpaws, but they have Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and switch-hitting Willi Castro on hand as righty-capable infielders who can take some pressure off Julien in the short term.

Moving forward, the bigger question is where Julien fits best defensively. Scouting reports have long pegged him as a well below-average defender at second base, where he’s spent the majority of his professional career. Public metrics have panned his work over his first 366 MLB innings at the keystone.

The Twins have lived with the subpar middle infield glove to inject more life into the offense. Julien’s two promotions have been in response to injuries to Jorge Polanco. The latter is now healthy, but the Twins reshuffled their infield to keep Julien in the lineup. Polanco has started four times at third base since being reinstated from the IL on July 28, his first work at the hot corner in seven years.

Whether Minnesota feels that’s a long-term option remains to be seen. The Twins could welcome Royce Lewis back from an oblique strain within the next couple weeks. The former first overall pick has battled myriad injury issues throughout his career but been a productive player whenever healthy. Lewis is probably ticketed for regular run at the hot corner when he returns. That could push Polanco back to the keystone and perhaps move Julien into a primary designated hitter capacity.

That’d enable Minnesota to cut into the playing time of Joey Gallo, who is hitting .156/.276/.349 since an excellent first month. Beyond this season, Julien’s emergence figures to only raise more questions about the possibility of subtracting a left-handed bat to add more lineup balance. Gallo’s impending free agency will remove one player from the group, while the club will have a net $9MM option decision on Max Kepler.

If they’re comfortable with Julien as a tolerable (if fringy) defender at second base, that could lead to an interesting question on Polanco’s future. Minnesota can bring the veteran infielder back on a $10.5MM option. That’s solid value — before this year’s injury-plagued season, Polanco was one of the league’s better offensive second basemen — but could make him a potential trade candidate. The Brewers, for instance, exercised an option on Kolten Wong before dealing him to Seattle last offseason.

Those are decisions the Minnesota front office could weigh three months from now. In the interim, they’ll be thrilled with Julien’s excellent start to his career. Wherever he plays, he looks like an impact piece in the lineup, at least against right-handed pitching. The Twins are in pole position for a division title after a disappointing 2021-22 stretch, in part because of their hot-hitting rookie.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Central Notes: Cardinals, Twins, Carpenter, Ashby

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The Cardinals saw a pair of high-profile players exit today’s loss to the Cubs due to injury today. Catcher Willson Contreras exited the game in the sixth inning with right hip tightness before third baseman Nolan Arenado exited the game in the ninth inning. Per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, Contreras felt some soreness in his hip while blocking pitches early in the game that was then aggravated upon running the bases later on, while Arenado fouled a ball off his lower left leg earlier in the game. While he initially stayed in the game, Arenado’s leg began to stiffen up during a lengthy rain delay later in the game, prompting Arenado’s exit. Per MLB.com’s John Denton, Arenado told reporters that he’ll “be fine” on Sunday, indicating he could return to the lineup without missing time. Denton added that Contreras is listed as day-to-day.

Losing either Contreras or Arenado for significant time would be a major blow to the St. Louis. While the club is in fourth place in a weak NL Central division with an abysmal 44-55 record, the club has performed better of late with a solid 17-13 record in their last thirty games. Both Arenado and Contreras have been key pieces in that success. Since that month of play began, Arenado boasts a strong .288/.336/.586 slash line while Contreras has caught fire to the tune of a .373/.472/.653 line in 21 games. If Contreras ends up missing time, the Cardinals figure to rely on youngster Ivan Herrera behind the plate alongside backup Andrew Knizner.

More from around MLB’s central divisions…

  • With Twins infielder Jorge Polanco nearing a return from the injured list, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) that Polanco would be taking reps at third base during his rehab assignment. The position change, Baldelli explained, is designed to keep second baseman Edouard Julien in the lineup after Polanco’s return. Julien has been a revelation for the Twins in his rookie season, slashing a phenomenal .318/.399/.565 with a wRC+ of 167. With Polanco set to shift to the hot corner, the likes of Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer figure to see their playing time reduced upon his return.
  • MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter is drawing significant trade interest, but that Detroit is expected to hold onto the lefty slugger. The 25-year-old Carpenter has done nothing but hit since reaching the majors late last season, with a .257/.317/.493 slash line in 312 career plate appearances that’s good for a wRC+ of 125. Carpenter has shown particularly prodigious power, with 17 homers despite only half a season’s worth of trips to the plate. Given his offensive success, it’s hardly a surprise that Morosi notes the Tigers see Carpenter as part of the club’s future. Riley Greene, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, and Spencer Torkelson are among the other young pieces already in the majors who could be key factors in the club’s eventual return to contention.
  • Brewers lefty Aaron Ashby has yet to pitch in the majors this year after undergoing shoulder surgery back in April, but he’s making progress toward a return at some point this season. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy relays that Ashby has been on a schedule involving 30-pitch bullpen sessions on Tuesdays and Fridays, and that while there are still hurdles before he can return to game action, he’s expected to head to Arizona next week to continue his rehab. Upon his return, Ashby figures to pitch in out of the bullpen, a role in which he owns a career 3.66 ERA across 39 1/3 innings of work with a 32.5% strikeout rate.

Big Hype Prospects: Westburg, Matos, Crawford, Whisenhunt, Anthony

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The Orioles are finally calling up one of their top hitting prospects, and it isn’t the one I expected to get the first call. Jordan Westburg will make his debut later today. I expected Colton Cowser to win the race to the Majors. With Cedric Mullins recently returning, Cowser is left to await another injury or Aaron Hicks’ inevitable collapse (good outcomes, deeply terrible EVs).

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jordan Westburg, 24, 2B/3B/SS, BAL (AAA)
301 PA, 18 HR, 6 SB, .295/.372/.567

There’s a disconnect between public perceptions of Westburg and scouting reports. The bat will play, though Westburg’s penchant to swing-and-miss could result in long slumps as reports identify exploitable weaknesses. His minor league exit velocities would rate as above average in the Majors. Additionally, Westburg seemingly mixes discipline and targeted aggression in a way that could help keep his strikeouts under control – it has thus far in the minors.

The trouble is his defense. He’s trained all over the infield. Some think he’ll eventually land in left field. We see these sorts of bat-first players all over the league. His flexibility enables the club to view him as a tenth man akin to Chris Taylor (to be clear, Taylor is a far superior fielder). When approaching roster construction, Westburg can be slotted into whatever spot needs filling or else rotate with the regulars to keep everyone fresh.

Luis Matos, 21, OF, SFG (MLB)
45 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .282/.378/.385

On the back of a mediocre AFL performance, it wasn’t guaranteed the Giants were going to roster Matos this year. He would have likely gone early in the Rule 5 draft if they hadn’t. Matos immediately rewarded San Francisco’s decision to protect him. Though discipline has long been a weakness, he has more walks than strikeouts through 45 plate appearances after hitting .398/.435/.685 in 116 Triple-A plate appearances. The 21-year-old has looked like a new hitter this year.

There are still worrying details under the surface. His 89.5-mph average and 107.5-mph max exit velocities suggest middling power. Given his age, he could easily grow into more power – several evaluators believe this will happen. It’s my expectation Matos will soon enter a slump due to poor quality of contact. However, I’m optimistic about the long-range picture. In addition to burgeoning hitting skills, Matos is a plus defensive center fielder.

Justin Crawford, 19, OF, PHI (A)
202 PA, 0 HR, 32 SB, .346/.395/.456

I was surprised to recently discover Crawford had crept onto Baseball America’s Top 100 list. That’s not meant as a knock against Crawford. There happens to be a large number of high-quality prospects around the league. Crawford is more projection than actuality at this stage of his development.

The 17th pick of the 2022 draft, Crawford was seen as the sort of toolsy, incomplete prospect the Phillies have historically loved – and struggled to develop. He’s performing decently in Low-A where his first-rate speed is on display. A .423 BABIP has allowed him to get away with too many swinging strikes for his current low-power profile. He’s expected to age into roughly average pop, so this problem could go away in a couple ways. Comparisons to his father, Carl Crawford, come naturally as they share quite a few traits. He’s reportedly comfortable making adjustments to his hitting mechanics which further increases the volatility of his prospectdom.

Carson Whisenhunt, 22, SP, SFG (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 49.2 IP, 12.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 2.90 ERA

Whisenhunt would rank higher among evaluators if not for off-field issues. As it is, he’s still in consideration for the back-end of Top 100 lists. The simplest issue to comment on publicly is his failed PED test in college. You’ll notice, it’s rare for college players to be caught for PEDs, and it’s not because they’re squeaky clean. For his part, Whisenhunt blames a tainted supplement. The skinny southpaw leads with a double-plus changeup and is only just reaching a level where hitters will have some capacity to cope with the pitch. His changeup is such that he won’t truly be tested until he reaches the Majors. The profile and build are reminiscent of Cole Hamels.

Roman Anthony, 19, OF, BOS (A+)
(A/A+) 251 PA, 5 HR, 12 SB, .236/.379/.382

Anyone statistically minded is going to like Anthony. A 19-year-old performing well in High-A is exciting stuff, particularly when said 19-year-old has a 171 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances. He was considerably more ordinary in Low-A, posting a 110 wRC+ in 202 plate appearances. A sweet-swinging lefty slugger, Anthony has considerable development ahead of him if he’s to continue this speedy race toward the Majors. The P-word gets thrown around. Against better competition, Anthony will find himself behind in the count all too often. Passivity isn’t a death knell. We saw Gunnar Henderson defeat it entering last season and again about a month ago. It’s a trait which has a way of echoing. But for the passivity, Anthony has all the traits of a starting corner outfielder.

FanGraphs gives Anthony a four-paragraph writeup that says more than I can in this space.

Three More

Edouard Julien, MIN (24): The star of the 2022 AFL, Julien is on the verge of losing his prospect “eligibility.” He’s batting .252/.336/.439 through 123 plate appearances. A 34.1 percent strikeout rate has held him back. He also has a 12.5 percent swinging strike rate – nearly double that of his Triple-A performance. Defensively limited, Julien appears in need of an adjustment or two. He has the tools to pull it off.

Jacob Misiorowski, MIL (21): It’s good to be unique as a pitcher. Misiorowski certainly checks the “unique” box. The 6’7’’ right-hander has the sort of funky arm action that makes it hard to identify balls and strikes. Misiorowski lacks a changeup, but we’ve seen plenty of starters succeed without one in recent years, especially those who can live up in the zone with hard heat. He currently has poor command.

Quinn Priester, PIT (22): Priester has been on the radar for a while, bouncing in and out of the Top 100 prospects. He’s a ground ball pitcher who manages around a strikeout per inning while limiting walks and piling up ground balls. Since his fastball isn’t particularly effective, he should be viewed as a potential back-of-the-rotation guy – the type who keeps his team in the game.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Twins To Reinstate Jorge Polanco, Option Edouard Julien

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The Twins are activating second baseman Jorge Polanco from the 10-day injured list before tomorrow’s matchup with the Guardians, manager Rocco Baldelli told the team’s beat (relayed by Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press). Rookie infielder Edouard Julien will be optioned to Triple-A St. Paul in a corresponding transaction.

Polanco spent barely over the minimal time on the shelf after being diagnosed with a left hamstring strain. The abbreviated absence is good news for Minnesota with the switch-hitting infielder off to a nice start to the year. Polanco carries a .284/.327/.484 line with four home runs through his first 101 plate appearances. It’s right in line with the above-average offensive production Polanco has offered in each of the prior three full seasons. He’s a .270/.337/.460 hitter since the start of the 2019 season.

While he’s been out, the Twins have given the bulk of the second base reps to Julien. The Auburn product has emerged as one of the game’s more intriguing offensive prospects with huge minor league numbers. Julien is hitting .210/.296/.435 in his first 72 trips to the plate against big league arms. He’s popped four home runs and walked seven times but he’s already gone down on strikes on 25 occasions.

Second base was the clearest path to everyday playing time for Julien with Polanco on the shelf. It’s understandable the Twins would look to get him regular reps in St. Paul rather than assuming a multi-positional bench role in the short term. The Twins have Willi Castro, Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer as versatile infield options behind the primary group of Joey Gallo, Polanco, Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa.

Twins Place Jorge Polanco On 10-Day Injured List

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The Twins placed second baseman Jorge Polanco on the 10-day injured list due to a left hamstring strain.  The placement is retroactive to May 18.  Infielder Edouard Julien has been called up from Triple-A to take Polanco’s spot on the active roster.

Polanco had to be removed from Wednesday’s game after hurting his hamstring while trying to beat out a grounder.  Today’s move sends Polanco back to the injured for the second time this season, as he didn’t play his first game until April 21 since the Twins were taking a cautious approach with a lingering knee injury.  Polanco’s 2022 campaign was ended in early September by left knee inflammation, and he didn’t play much in Spring Training since he continued to feel some soreness.

The silver lining is that Polanco has performed well when he’s been able to play, as he has a .284/.327/.484 slash line and four home runs over his 101 plate appearances.  While obviously a small sample size this early, Polanco’s 124 wRC+ matches his career best over a full season.  A .343 BABIP has played a big role and his strikeout/walk rates are both below average, but Polanco’s .369 xwOBA is also higher than his .349 wOBA.

With Nick Gordon also sidelined with a shin fracture, Minnesota’s infield depth has been thinned, but the Twins do have options to replace Polanco at least in the short term.  Donovan Solano and Willi Castro can each get some time at the position, or Kyle Farmer could be moved over from third base if Solano or Castro get a start at the hot corner.  Julien will also be in the mix in his second MLB call-up, as he hit .222/.276/.444 in 30 PA during his first appearance in April.

In the bigger picture, losing Polanco for at least 10 days is another blow to a Twins team that has had trouble both staying healthy and delivering consistent offense.  Carlos Correa and Christian Vazquez are among the Twins hitter who have yet to really get going at the plate, though Minnesota is still in first place in the AL Central thanks largely to an excellent rotation.

Twins Reinstate Jorge Polanco

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The Twins announced a series of roster moves today, with infielder Jorge Polanco reinstated from the injured list and right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson recalled from Triple-A. In corresponding moves, righty Jorge Alcalá and infielder Edouard Julien were optioned to Triple-A. The Polanco-Julien swap was reported by Twins Farm Report on Twitter prior to the official club announcement.

Polanco, 29, is in tonight’s lineup, batting fifth and playing second base. This will be his first major league game since August of last year. He was placed on the injured list in early September due to left knee inflammation and wasn’t able to return. As this year’s Spring Training ramped up, everything seemed aligned for him to make the Opening Day roster, but he was eventually slowed down in the middle of March with what chief baseball officer Derek Falvey called “normal soreness.” That ultimate led to an IL-placement on Opening Day, but he’ll now slot back into the Minnesota lineup for the first time in almost eight months.

He began his career as a shortstop and didn’t get especially strong marks for his glovework but showed encouraging offensive abilities. By the end of 2018, he had appeared in 288 games and struck out in just 16.2% of his plate appearances while demonstrating a bit of power with 23 home runs. His .272/.329/.420 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 100, indicating he was exactly league average in that time.

The Twins clearly believed that Polanco would grow into something more, as they then signed him to a five-year, $25.75MM extension with a couple of club options. Polanco has since proved them right, hitting 75 home runs over the past four seasons, one of which was the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. His .270/.337/.459 line in that time amounts to a wRC+ of 117. He’s since moved to second base in deference to stronger shortstop defenders like Andrelton Simmons and Carlos Correa.

Polanco is now in the final guaranteed season of that extension, though it seems likely that those options will be picked up. The 2024 option is valued at $10.5MM with a $1MM buyout, making it a net $9.5MM decision. The 2025 option is worth $12.5MM with a $750K buyout, making it a net $11.75MM decision. Those are reasonable salaries for a potent bat at an up-the-middle position.

While Polanco has been out of action this year, most of the playing time at second base has gone to Julien, Nick Gordon and Kyle Farmer. Julien will now go back to the minors to get regular work down there. Farmer went on the IL last week after getting hit in the face by a fastball from Lucas Giolito. Though the incident looked quite scary on the broadcast, Farmer managed to avoid any fractures and was mostly limited to dental injuries. He told Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press today that he still has to get four root canals next week but has started doing baseball activities like hitting off a tee and taking ground balls.

Twins Promote Edouard Julien

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April 12: The Twins formally announced that Julien has been recalled from Triple-A St. Paul. He’ll make his big league debut today at second base, Twins vice president of communications Dustin Morse tweets.

April 11: The Twins are promoting Edouard Julien before tomorrow’s game against the White Sox, reports Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic (Twitter link). That’ll be the corresponding move for the placement of Joey Gallo on the 10-day injured list.

It’s the first major league call for Julien. An 18th round pick out of Auburn in 2019, he signed for a well overslot $493K bonus after a down sophomore season. He’s significantly elevated his stock in pro ball. Julien has been an excellent offensive player throughout his time in the minors. He hit .267/.434/.480 in 2021, his first full minor league season after the cancelation of the previous campaign. The left-handed hitter spent all of last year with Double-A Wichita, raking at a .300/.441/.490 clip with 17 home runs over 508 plate appearances.

Julien showed top-end patience at the plate. His 19.3% walk rate was more than double the MLB average. That willingness to work deep counts translated to a slightly higher than average 24.6% strikeout percentage, though it’s a tradeoff with which the Twins are surely comfortable given Julien’s huge on-base marks.

The Quebec native played for Canada during this spring’s World Baseball Classic. He was assigned to Triple-A St. Paul to open this season. Julien has picked up right where he left off, collecting eight hits and seven walks through his first 36 plate appearances. He’s homered twice and doubled over his first eight games at the top minor league level.

Over the winter, Julien generated some top prospect attention. ESPN and FanGraphs placed him near the back of their respective Top 100 lists, while he finished just outside the Top 100 at Baseball America. Prospect evaluators unsurprisingly praise his plate discipline and strong left-handed power potential. He’s widely expected to be a productive offensive player at the MLB level.

Julien’s defensive profile is more spotty. He’s split his time between second base, left field and first base in the minors. Evaluators have offered bearish reviews on his glove at the keystone, suggesting he’s better suited for left field or first base long term. With Gallo’s injury vacating first base, it seems likely Julien will break in primarily there.

The Twins added Julien to their 40-man roster last offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. They won’t need to make any additional moves to call him up. The 23-year-old still has three minor league option years remaining, so the Twins can shuttle him between the majors and St. Paul as needed.

While Julien didn’t break camp with the MLB club, he’s still in position to potentially secure a full service year in 2023. Players need to accrue 172 days on the big league roster to reach one year. Julien would narrowly meet that cutoff if he’s in the majors for good, though any optional assignment back to the minors would keep him shy of a full season. The Twins aren’t in position to recoup any draft compensation for his promotion, as he only appeared on the preseason Top 100 list at one of ESPN, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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