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Injury Notes: Lodolo, Cabrera, Garrett, Perez, Means, Bradish

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Nick Lodolo looked sharp today in the first of two planned Triple-A rehab starts.  The Reds southpaw allowed one run in five innings and 77 pitches of work, while striking out eight and allowing two hits and three walks.  After missing most of the 2023 season due to a stress reaction in his left tibia, Lodolo was still feeling some leg soreness this spring, so the Reds started him on the 15-day injured list in order to better ease Lodolo’s path back to action.  Assuming he is feeling healthy after today’s outing and his next rehab start, Lodolo is slated to make his season debut for the Reds on April 10.

More on other pitchers working towards getting healthy….

  • Edward Cabrera also began the season on the 15-day IL, as the Marlins righty was sidelined with an impingement in his throwing shoulder.  As noted by MLB.com, Cabrera threw 39 pitches in a intrasquad scrimmage game earlier this week and a 20-pitch bullpen session on Friday, so the next step is a minor league rehab assignment that begins with a Triple-A start today.  It isn’t yet known how many rehab outings Cabrera might need before he is activated, though of the Marlins’ multiple injured starters, he appears closest to a return.  Braxton Garrett is slated to throw a bullpen session today as he works his way back from his own shoulder impingement, and Garrett intends to be back in action before the end of April.  El Extra Base’s Daniel Alvarez-Montes (X link) notes that Eury Perez threw 20 pitches in a bullpen session today, with Perez on the road to recovery after being waylaid by elbow soreness in Spring Training.
  • While rehab starts are about getting comfortable and working out pitches rather than pure results, John Means had a shaky showing in first rehab start today with Triple-A Norfolk.  The Baltimore Sun’s Matt Weyrich was among those to relay the news that Means gave up seven runs on six hits and a walk over the 32-pitch outing.  Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters yesterday that Means’ is “going to be close to 30 days” in Norfolk, as in the maximum length for rehab assignments.  Means missed almost all of the 2022 and 2023 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery, and the O’s didn’t include him on their playoff roster due to what was reported as elbow soreness at the time.  As Kubatko notes, the Orioles are now referring to the injury as a left forearm strain, which only adds to the extreme caution Means and the O’s are taking in slowly ramping up the southpaw’s workload.
  • A sprain in Kyle Bradish’s right UCL created concerns that Bradish might also miss an extended amount of time, but the Orioles right-hander seems to be making good progress as he is also taking a careful approach to his rehab.  As relayed to Kubatko and other media, Bradish threw all of his pitches over a 35-pitch bullpen session yesterday.  While he “feels really good” in the aftermath of this bullpen, Bradish and Hyde didn’t commit to any kind of timeline about when Bradish will start building towards a return to the active roster.

Edward Cabrera Diagnosed With Right Shoulder Impingement

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March 12: Cabrera has been diagnosed with an impingement in his right shoulder and is day-to-day for the time being, Schumaker revealed to the Marlins beat this morning (X link via Issac Azout of Fish On First). Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald adds that he’ll be evaluated further today, and the team will determine his next steps thereafter.

March 11: Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera will undergo an MRI on his right shoulder, manager Skip Schumaker tells Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. The righty’s strength tests evidently came back fine but there’s still enough concern that the club would like some more information.

It was reported that Cabrera didn’t make his scheduled start yesterday due to some tightness in his throwing shoulder. Though his scratch was presented as precautionary and Cabrera said he was “already starting to feel better” a few hours later, the concern from the club is enough that some imaging is now planned.

Cabrera has shown a strong ability to get strikeouts and ground balls thus far in his career, though with some concerns about his lack of control. He has thrown 197 2/3 innings over the past three years with a 4.01 earned run average. He has punched out 26.2% of hitters in that time while keeping 49.4% of balls in play on the ground, but he’s also given out free passes to 14% of opponents that he has faced.

Now out of options, Cabrera seemed a lock for a rotation spot in Miami to open the year, especially with some injury questions in the starting group. Sandy Alcántara underwent Tommy John surgery late last year and won’t be an option for the club in 2024. Lefty Braxton Garrett is dealing with some shoulder soreness here in spring and is questionable for Opening Day.

Garrett’s injury seemed to open the door for A.J. Puk to break camp in the rotation, as he looks to move from the bullpen to a starting role. Puk would slot in next to Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez and Cabrera, with one spot available for someone like Trevor Rogers or Ryan Weathers. If Cabrera’s shoulder tightness requires him to miss some time, perhaps both of Rogers and Weathers need to open the season in the rotation.

Rogers and Weathers have each been posting good results here in spring but it would be less than ideal for the Marlins to be relying on them early on. Rogers only tossed 18 innings last year due to biceps and lat injuries. Weathers, meanwhile, struggled badly last year and finished with a 6.55 ERA. It would also put them in a spot where their top depth options could be Max Meyer or Bryan Hoeing. Meyer is a talented prospect but missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Hoeing has just 83 1/3 innings of major league experience with a 6.48 ERA. Pitchers like Roddery Muñoz and Darren McCaughan are also on the 40-man roster but Muñoz hasn’t yet made his MLB debut and McCaughan has just 14 big league innings.

That would put the Fish far away from past years, when they had so much depth that there were persistent rumors about them using it to bolster other parts of the roster. They did make one such trade when they flipped Pablo López and a couple of prospects for Luis Arráez, but that trade and the Alcántara surgery have thinned out the group in a hurry.

The club will obviously be hoping for good news in the coming weeks on both Garrett and Cabrera. Free agency still has some arms available but the Marlins have been keeping the purse strings tight this offseason. Their $5MM deal for Tim Anderson is the only major league deal they’ve given out to a free agent. That makes it hard to imagine them signing someone like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, or even Michael Lorenzen. Pitchers like Jake Odorizzi or Noah Syndergaard could perhaps be signed for a modest amounts, though the Marlins may not feel that necessary if Cabrera and/or Garrett end up feeling better in the coming days.

East Notes: Casas, Cabrera, Marsh

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The Red Sox recently signed right-hander Brayan Bello to a six-year, $55MM extension that extends their team control over the youngster by two years. That deal isn’t the only possible extension for a young potential cornerstone that Boston has pursued this winter, however, as first baseman Triston Casas confirmed to reporters that he and the Red Sox have discussed a possible extension as well. At the time, Casas indicated that while he would love to spend his entire career in Boston, the club had yet to present him with anything “enticing” to that point. In the wake of Bello’s extension, Casas recently discussed his own extension negotiations with the Red Sox, as relayed by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

In his comments, Casas reiterating that he hopes to play in Boston for “the rest of [his] career” while also providing an update on the discussions he’s had with Red Sox brass. Per Casas, the sides are still talking but there’s been “no numerical values” discussed to this point and that “nothing has really accelerated” to this point. Even as the 24-year-old makes clear he hopes to spend his entire career in Boston, it doesn’t seem as though he feels much urgency to get a deal done anytime soon.

“I think I have a lot of work to do before I feel like I can say I deserve that contract extension to be the long-term first baseman for the Boston Red Sox,” Casas said, as relayed by Speier. “…So if I don’t get that offer, I’m not upset at anybody in the organization. I’m not upset with myself.”

Although Casas claims to have not yet performed at a level that would warrant the extension he’s looking for, he certainly turned in a strong performance in his first full big league season last year. In 132 games with the Red Sox, Casas slashed an impressive .263/.367/.490 (129 wRC+) in 502 trips to the plate. That strong overall performance was bolstered by a torrid second half that saw Casas slash an incredible .317/.417/.617 in 54 games with a 175 wRC+ that was the fifth-best figure among all hitters with at least 200 plate appearances down the stretch, bested by only Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts. If the sides are unable to come to an agreement this spring, a 2024 campaign that even comes close to resembling his second half last year would surely improve Casas’s earning power considerably.

More from MLB’s East divisions…

  • Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera was removed from his start against the Cardinals today before throwing a pitch, with Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald noting that Cabrera experienced a bout of tightness in his right shoulder while warming up for the game. McPherson adds that Cabrera’s removal from the game was precautionary, per Miami, and that Cabrera told reporters a few hours after being removed from the game that he was “already starting to feel better.” While both club and player are indicating that the issue isn’t a particularly severe issue, it’s worth noting that Cabrera was sidelined by a shoulder impingement in June of last year and missed a month of action. Should Cabrera manage to avoid a trip to the injured list to open the season, he figures to Jesus Luzardo and Eury Perez in the rotation. Southpaws A.J. Puk, Trevor Rogers, and Ryan Weathers figure to compete for the final two spots in the club’s rotation, though Braxton Garrett figures to join the rotation once he’s recovered from his own shoulder woes.
  • Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh has yet to appear in a game this spring while rehabbing from arthroscopic knee surgery he underwent in early February. While the initial timeline for his return to action was three-to-four weeks following the surgery, Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer indicates that Marsh is not quite ready to return to game action at this point. Coffey adds that club manager Rob Thomson recently indicated that Marsh is “on track” with regards to his rehab and could get into a Grapefruit League game by the end of the week. Marsh, 26, slashed a strong .277/.372/.458 in 133 games for the Phillies last year and figures to be a regular fixture in the club’s outfield mix this season alongside Nick Castellanos and Johan Rojas.

Pirates’ Trade Talks For Rotation Help Have Slowed

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Throughout the late stages of the offseason, the Pirates have reportedly been exploring the trade market for rotation help, with the Marlins (specifically, right-hander Edward Cabrera) being the team most frequently suggested as a potential trade partner. However, while the Bucs talked with the Fish and surely several other clubs about deals to bolster the rotation, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that talks have “lost steam” and that GM Ben Cherington now says he’s increasingly focused on the arms in house.

“If there are things we can do to make the team better, we’re gonna stay on that,” Cherington tells Mackey. “No guarantee those things happen. We’re mostly focused on the guys who are here.”

The Pirates have three slam-dunk members of their Opening Day rotation: Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. Keller, who recently signed a five-year contract extension, will get the Opening Day nod. There are still a pair of open rotation jobs, however, and Cherington suggested there are six or seven options vying for those two opportunities.

The names currently competing include a mix of young prospects, rebound candidates coming off a down 2023 showing, and veterans hoping to win a spot. While the Pirates have already informed 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick Paul Skenes that he won’t make the Opening Day roster, fellow top prospect Jared Jones (No. 74 on Baseball America’s top 100 list) is firmly in the mix. Jones may not have the same ceiling as Skenes, but Skenes pitched just 6 2/3 innings last year following the draft. Jones, on the other hand, logged a combined 3.85 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate in 126 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A in ’23. He’s pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in camp.

Jones, 22, was specifically called out by manager Derek Shelton as a candidate for a spot in the Opening Day rotation (X link via Alex Stumpf of MLB.com). He’d need to be added to the 40-man roster, which could potentially work against him. That’s not true of Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter and Kyle Nicolas, each of whom is on the 40-man roster. (Lefty Jackson Wolf is as well, but the Pirates already optioned him to Double-A in their first wave of spring cuts).

Contreras and Falter have the most experience of the bunch. Both are looking to rebound from ugly 2023 showings. Contreras looked like a potential rotation staple as recently as 2022, when he pitched 95 innings of 3.79 ERA ball with passable, if unspectacular, strikeout and walk rates (21.1%, 9.6%). However, he lost more than a mile off his heater in ’23 and took a step back in virtually every rate category of note. He’s still only 24 years old and is just two years removed from being a top-100 prospect himself, so there’s ample time for him to figure things out. He’s out of minor league options, meaning he’ll make the roster one way or another — be it in the rotation or in the bullpen. Pirates fans will want to check out Mackey’s piece in full, as it more fully details some of the gains Contreras has shown thus far in camp.

Falter was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in a swap sending utilityman Rodolfo Castro to the Phillies. The 26-year-old was never as touted a prospect as Contreras was, but the two followed relatively similar arcs otherwise: brief MLB debut in 2021, solid back-of-the-rotation results in 2022, poor showing in 2023. Falter tossed 84 innings with a 3.86 ERA as the Phillies’ fifth starter in ’22, fanning 21.2% of his opponents against an exceptional 4.9% walk rate. Like Contreras, he saw his strikeout, walk, swinging-strike and home run rates all back up in 2023 as he finished out the season with a 5.36 ERA in 80 2/3 frames. Also like Contreras, he’s out of minor league options and will need to make the roster or else be traded or exposed to waivers.

Priester, Ortiz and Nicolas all have minor league options remaining and have all made their big league debuts (in quite brief fashion, for Nicolas). They all ranked within the organization’s top 15 prospects at Baseball America as recently as 2023. Priester and Ortiz both drew top-100 fanfare prior to their debuts. None of the three has established himself on the roster, however. Priester has the best minor league numbers of the group but has been hit harder than Ortiz in the big leagues. Ortiz throws the hardest but has displayed shakier command than Priester. Nicolas still hasn’t had much success above Double-A, so he seems likely ticketed for Triple-A Indianapolis to begin the year, particularly since he’s already been hit hard in camp.

The Bucs also have a pair of veterans who could compete for a job. Lefty Josh Fleming is on the 40-man roster after signing a split deal late in the winter. He’s out of options and can’t be sent down, but he’s spent the bulk of his MLB career as a swingman with the Rays and could be headed for a similar spot in Pittsburgh. Righty Chase Anderson is in camp on a non-roster deal. The 36-year-old hasn’t posted a sub-5.00 ERA in the big leagues since being traded by the Brewers following the 2019 season but has shown decently in Triple-A while bouncing around the league since then.

Pirates Still Discussing Rotation Trades With Marlins, Exploring Free Agency

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The Pirates have added Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales to their rotation this winter but remain in active pursuit of at least one more starter, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The Bucs are in ongoing trade discussions with multiple clubs, including the Marlins, and are still showing interest in various free agents, per Mackey. FanSided’s Robert Murray also wrote this morning, after the Bucs signed Josh Fleming, that Pittsburgh is still active on both the trade and free agent markets.

Miami has reportedly entertained interest in starters Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett at various points this offseason. Ballyhooed right-hander Eury Perez, who impressed with a 3.15 ERA through 91 1/3 innings as a 20-year-old rookie in 2023, is widely considered to be off limits.

Of the other Miami arms, Cabrera has generally been considered the “most” available. The 6’5″ 25-year-old is a former top-tier prospect himself but has dealt with command troubles through his first year-plus of big league service time and has not yet as established as the other three hurlers in question. Mackey indeed suggests that Cabrera is the likeliest target, reporting that a deal between the Bucs and the Fish would likely include an infielder such as Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales or Ji Hwan Bae.

Each of those three have varying levels of trade value themselves. Peguero has garnered the most prospect fanfare of the group but struggled in a 59-game MLB debut last year, hitting .237/.280/.374 in 213 plate appearances. Gonzales is a former No. 7 overall pick and top-100 prospect, but Baseball America now lists him ninth among Pittsburgh minor leaguers. Bae is another once-well-regarded prospect but exhausted his rookie eligibility last year with a tepid .231/.296/.311 showing through 371 plate appearances. All three are middle infielders, though Gonzales and Bae are considered limited to second base (and, in Bae’s case, the outfield).

Any member of that trio would figure to be just one of several pieces going to Miami, should a deal come together. Though Cabrera himself has some questions about his lackluster command, he’s still performed far better in the majors than any of those Pittsburgh infielders, and controllable young pitching is typically the most difficult type of asset to acquire.

Since making his big league debut in 2021, Cabrera has pitched 197 2/3 innings of 4.01 ERA ball. That includes a rocky debut that lasted just 26 1/3 frames in ’21, however. Over the past two seasons, he sports a more encouraging 3.73 mark in 171 1/3 frames. Cabrera has averaged better than 96 mph on his heater, punched out an above-average 26.6% of his opponents and induced grounders at a strong 50.6% clip. Still, fielding-independent metrics are a bit more bearish on him than ERA due to his 13.7% walk rate. In that same 2022-23 window, Cabrera sports a 4.50 FIP and 4.42 SIERA.

If Cabrera can improve his command at all, he has the makings of a clear big league starter. His fastball and changeup give him a pair of above-average to plus offerings, with the change in particular befuddling lefties and thus mitigating typical platoon issues. Southpaws have flailed away at the pitch and produced a hapless .184/.291/.315 batting line in 433 plate appearances against Cabrera. Because his slider hasn’t been as consistently effective, Cabrera has struggled against right-handed opponents. They’ve hit just .231 against him but posted a huge .376 OBP and slugged .422.

Cabrera’s 1.147 years of big league service time put him on track to be arbitration-eligible as a Super Two player next winter. That’d make him arb-eligible four times rather than the standard three, but he’s under club control through the 2028 season regardless.

Beyond their interest in Miami’s starters, the Pirates have seen free agents Domingo German and Noah Syndergaard throw recently, per Mackey. Either figures to be available on a low-cost deal, and it seems entirely feasible that the Pirates could both trade for a pre-arb starter who won’t alter their payroll and still add another low-cost rotation piece on a one-year deal. Other veterans still on the market –beyond top starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who are surely out of Pittsburgh’s price range — include Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu, Mike Clevinger and Eric Lauer.

Latest On Marlins’ Rotation Trade Possibilities

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As the free agent starting pitching market thins, there’s been some chatter about the Marlins as a team that might subtract a pitcher in trade. That attention has generally been centered on left-hander Jesús Luzardo and young righty Edward Cabrera. Last week, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote that Cabrera had the better chance of that duo of changing hands, although it wasn’t clear how likely Miami was to move either player.

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald added some context on the trade possibilities involving Miami’s starters this afternoon. Jackson writes that the Fish are willing to consider offers on each of Luzardo, Cabrera and left-hander Braxton Garrett, although he indicates there aren’t any proposals under “active consideration.”

A trade still seems a possibility but isn’t necessarily likely. The Fish haven’t done much under first-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix. Miami is the only team that still hasn’t signed a free agent to a major league deal this offseason. Their biggest moves were trade pickups of catcher Christian Bethancourt, reliever Calvin Faucher and out-of-options infielder Vidal Bruján.

It’s an underwhelming offseason for a team coming off a surprising Wild Card berth. The Fish seem likely to lose a 36-homer hitter after Jorge Soler declined his player option. They’re looking to add at shortstop, but the free agent class at the position is dismal. They could use another bat in the corner outfield/designated hitter mix.

For all the lineup questions, their biggest loss in 2024 is one to injury. Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery during last year’s postseason. With the 2022 NL Cy Young winner missing the entire season, the Fish project for a season-opening starting five of Eury Pérez, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera and Trevor Rogers.

That’s still a promising group, but their once vaunted rotation depth has thinned. In addition to the Alcantara injury, the Fish dealt Pablo López and prospect Jake Eder last year. Depth options beyond their front five include Ryan Weathers and Bryan Hoeing. Miami should get a boost from former #3 overall pick Max Meyer, who is 18 months removed from his own Tommy John procedure. Jackson writes that the new front office still considers Meyer a viable starting pitcher; prospect evaluators were divided on whether he was better suited for a high-leverage relief role before the injury.

Meyer only made two MLB starts before the unfortunate ligament tear. Rogers was limited to four starts, all in April, last year by biceps and lat injuries. Pérez, widely regarded as the sport’s top pitching prospect before an impressive rookie season, logged 128 innings between Triple-A and the majors last season. Miami could still be cautious about expanding the 20-year-old’s workload too far beyond 150 frames.

Luzardo and Garrett are Miami’s only healthy starters who topped 100 MLB innings a season ago. They both had strong seasons. The former posted a 3.58 ERA while punching out more than 28% of opposing hitters in 32 starts. With three years of arbitration control and a fastball approaching 97 MPH on average, he likely has more trade value than anyone in the Miami rotation aside from Pérez (who certainly isn’t getting moved).

Garrett has a more extended control window, as he won’t get to free agency for another five seasons. The former #7 overall pick allowed 3.66 earned runs per nine in just under 160 frames. Garrett doesn’t have the huge velocity of most of his rotation mates, sitting around 91 MPH with his heater. Yet his strong secondary offerings and plus command have translated into mid-rotation results for the last two seasons.

Cabrera is a more volatile young arm. The 25-year-old righty worked to a 4.24 ERA across 99 2/3 MLB frames. He generated an impressive 27.2% strikeout rate and 54.3% ground-ball percentage with a fastball that sits above 96 MPH. His control remains a significant question, however. Cabrera walked more than 15% of opposing hitters last season and has handed out free passes at a 14% rate over parts of three years in the big leagues. As with Garrett, he’s under club control for five more seasons.

Latest On Marlins’ Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo

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As with the past several offseasons, there’s been plenty of speculation and reporting about the Marlins’ willingness to deal from their starting rotation. Chatter surrounding the possibility of Miami dealing a starter didn’t bring about a high-profile trade two winters ago — Miami did deal Zach Thompson to the Pirates as part of the Jacob Stallings deal — but last offseason saw the Fish ship righty Pablo Lopez to Minnesota alongside prospects Jose Salas and Byron Chourio in a deal that brought Luis Arraez to Miami. Talk this offseason has centered primarily around lefty Jesus Luzardo and righty Edward Cabrera, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that a trade involving Luzardo is “less likely” than a trade of the younger Cabrera. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote late last week that the Marlins have been open to discussing both in trades.

While Cabrera has more club control remaining — five years, compared to Luzardo’s three — he’s also the less-established arm of the two, so it makes sense that the Marlins would be a bit more reluctant to part with the more experienced Luzardo.

Cabrera, who’ll turn 26 in April, has already spent parts of three seasons in the big leagues. After getting roughed up as a rookie, the former top prospect has made strides in the past two seasons, logging a combined 3.73 ERA with a sharp 26.6% strikeout rate. He throws hard (96.2 mph average fastball), has generally been good at keeping the ball in the yard (1.10 HR/9) and boasts a strong 50.6% ground-ball rate. However, Cabrera has also walked far too many opponents, issuing free passes to 13.7% of batters faced.

That lack of command has at times prevented him from working deep into games. While some of his short starts have been attributable to the Marlins monitoring his workload as he’s worked through a shoulder impingement and elbow inflammation, Cabrera’s average of 4 2/3 innings per start to this point in his career is quite brief, even by today’s standards. Cabrera worked a career-high eight shutout innings against the A’s in August of 2022, but that was one of just two career outings where he’s recorded an out beyond the sixth inning (the other was in his MLB debut a year prior).

Clearly, there are still some final steps to take in Cabrera’s development, but his body of work over the past two years offers plenty of reason for optimism. Couple that with club control that stretches through the 2028 season — he’ll likely be arbitration-eligible four times as a Super Two player — and Cabrera should appeal to plenty of pitching-hungry clubs, even if he’s the less-established of Miami’s two “available” starters.

As for the Marlins’ goals in a trade, they’ll surely vary from prospective trade partner to prospective trade partner. The Fish entered the offseason looking for long-term help behind the plate and at shortstop. Rosenthal suggests that a viable long-term option at short, in particular, might pique the Marlins’ interest when it comes to moving a controllable pitcher. As things stand, utilityman Jon Berti, glove-first prospect Jacob Amaya and former top prospects Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards are among the organization’s options there.

That said, Miami also hasn’t done much to upgrade its long-term catching outlook this winter. Christian Bethancourt was acquired in a small trade with Cleveland, who’d acquired him from the Rays. He and Nick Fortes are the only catchers on Miami’s 40-man roster. None of the organization’s current top 10 prospects at Baseball America are catchers.

There’s no indication yet that a trade of Cabrera, Luzardo or any other Marlins starter should be considered especially likely. But the Marlins have sat out free agency entirely this offseason, and the market hasn’t exactly been deep in options at their foremost positions of need anyhow. They likely view the trade market as their best path to addressing those needs in the short- and long-term, as in addition to the thin free-agent market, the team’s projected $97MM payroll (via Roster Resource) is already about $5MM greater than last year’s Opening Day mark.

The Fish are still about $13MM shy of where they ended the 2023 season, but it’s fair to wonder just how much appetite ownership has for additional spending. Rosenthal writes, for instance, that Josh Bell’s $16.5MM salary (which the club acquired in order to dump the majority of Jean Segura’s contract on the Guardians) is one of the reasons that the Marlins have been reluctant to spend this winter. If that’s the case, it’s hard to envision owner Bruce Sherman greenlighting additional free-agent spending of note, which either sets the stage for some trade activity or a disappointing offseason on the player acquisition front (possibly both).

Marlins’ Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers Drawing Trade Interest

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It wouldn’t be an offseason or trade deadline without the annual tradition of rumors regarding the Marlins’ collection of young starting pitchers. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes this morning that Miami has received interest in right-hander Edward Cabrera and lefty Trevor Rogers this winter, though there’s no indication a deal involving either has been seriously discussed.

Miami’s wealth of starting pitching has been the focus of other clubs for several years now, although the extent of that depth is probably overstated now. The Fish traded Pablo Lopez as part of their Luis Arraez acquisition and will be without 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara in 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. Pitching prospect Jake Eder was traded at the deadline to acquire Jake Burger from the White Sox. Fellow prospects Max Meyer (2022 TJS), Dax Fulton (2023 elbow surgery) and Sixto Sanchez (shoulder surgeries in 2021, 2022) have all seen injuries slow their trajectories as well — particularly in the case of Sanchez.

Currently, the Marlins project to trot out a rotation including Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers and ballyhooed young right-hander Eury Perez. There’s no way the Marlins would move Perez, who entered 2023 as arguably the top pitching prospect in the sport and debuted as a 20-year-old with 19 starts of 3.15 ERA ball. Similarly, Rosenthal suggests that Luzardo and Garrett are likely considered off limits. Beyond that top quintet, the Marlins’ top in-house options are 27-year-old Bryan Hoeing and lefty Ryan Weathers, whom they acquired in a buy-low deal from the Padres over the summer.

The extent to which Cabrera or Rogers is available will depend on the strength of offers made by other clubs, as there’s no urgency for Miami to move either pitcher. Rogers, the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up, has three years of team control remaining. Cabrera has five. Rogers has had a pair of disappointing years since a brilliant rookie campaign, pitching to a 5.26 ERA in his past 125 frames (just 18 of which came in an injury-ruined 2023 season). Cabrera has been better but inconsistent while showing worrying command; he’s logged a 3.73 ERA and fanned 26.6% of his opponents in his past 171 1/3 innings but has also issued walks at a 13.7% clip in that time.

Between the greater amount of club control and the better recent track record (both in terms of health and performance), Cabrera has the greater trade value of the pair. He’ll likely be eligible for Super Two status next winter and thus be arbitration-eligible four times rather than three, but Rogers is already into his arb years and projected to earn a modest $1.5MM this coming season, via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

With their past trades and all of the injuries throughout the prospect ranks, the Marlins are no longer as deep as some may believe them to be. It’s still feasible that they could trade someone like Cabrera or Rogers in an effort to acquire help at another area of need like catcher, shortstop or center field (depending on the new front office’s plans for Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s defensive home). It’s a thin free-agent market for bats, after all, and the Marlins likely don’t have extensive financial flexibility anyhow.

That said, if new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix does deal from the rotation to address another need, it’d likely just create a hole on the starting staff that would need to be filled via free agency or a subsequent trade. The Marlins tried this last year when dealing Lopez and signing Johnny Cueto, but the results weren’t at all what the team had hoped, as Cueto posted a 6.02 ERA in 52 1/3 innings.

Marlins Place Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Soler On IL

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The Marlins announced that they have placed right-hander Sandy Alcantara on the 15-day injured list with a right forearm flexor strain. Also, outfielder/designated hitter Jorge Soler going on the 10-day injured list due to a right oblique strain and right-hander Geoff Hartlieb has been designated for assignment. Outfielder Dane Myers and right-hander Edward Cabrera have been recalled while left-hander Devin Smeltzer had his contract selected.

It’s a batch of unfortunate and ill-timed news for the Marlins, who are in the thick of a playoff race. They haven’t qualified for the playoffs in a full season since 2003 but have a chance this year, currently just half a game behind the Reds for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The club hasn’t provided any specifics about the expected absences but it seems possible they might have to undergo the rest of the race without either their best pitcher or their best power hitter.

Alcantara is one of the best pitchers in the sport when at his peak, which he showed last year. He finished 2022 with a 2.28 earned run average over 228 2/3 innings, earning the National League Cy Young in the process. He struck out 23.4% of batters, walked just 5.6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 53.4% rate. Here in 2023, his ERA has jumped to 4.14, but he seemed to have righted the ship after a rough start. He had a 5.08 ERA through June 21 but has a much more palatable 3.13 ERA since then. Soler, meanwhile, is an incredibly inconsistent hitter but is one of the best in the league when on a heater. He has 35 home runs this year and is slashing .240/.329/.513 overall for a wRC+ of 124.

Subtracting that arm from the pitching staff and that bat from the lineup is obviously less than ideal, especially when considering the timing. There’s just over three weeks remaining in the regular season, which doesn’t give either player much time to get healthy before it could be too late. Further updates will undoubtedly come after more tests, but both injuries are worrisome. Oblique strains are notoriously frustrating and can often keep players sidelined for weeks, even in mild cases.

A flexor strain, meanwhile, can be even more serious. Both Dustin May of the Dodgers and Drew Rasmussen of the Rays were diagnosed with flexor strains earlier this year before each required season-ending surgery. That’s not to say that Alcantara is necessarily going to follow the same path, but it shows the potential severity of today’s news.

Looking ahead to the winter, Alcantara won’t be significantly impacted from a financial perspective as he signed an extension that runs through 2026 with a club option for 2027. Soler, on the other hand, has one year and $9MM remaining on his deal but can opt out at season’s end. Assuming he is healthy, he should be able to top that guarantee on the open market based on his strong season and the lack of impact bats available this winter.

For now, it seems as though Cabrera will jump into the rotation to replace Alcantara. The 25-year-old posted a 4.79 ERA in 17 starts earlier this year, with an unsightly 15.4% walk rate, before getting optioned down to the minors. In five Triple-A starts since then, he has a 2.22 ERA with a 10.6% walk rate that’s still high but a marked improvement over his major league results this year.

Hartlieb, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in the offseason and had his contract selected a month ago. He’s only been able to get into two big league games in that time, spending much of it on optional assignment. He has a 3.29 ERA in 38 1/3 Triple-A innings this year, with a 25.3% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He has less than two years of service time but will be out of options next year. The Marlins will place him on waivers in the coming days. If he were to clear, he would have the right to elect free agency by virtue of having a previous career outright.

Smeltzer, 27, signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in the offseason and has been on and off their roster all year. This is the fourth time the club has selected his contract this season, with each of the previous three instances eventually resulting in him being designated for assignment and accepting an outright assignment. He’s tossed 18 2/3 innings for the club this year with a 5.79 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 4.8% walk rate and 32.8% ground ball rate.

Craig Mish and Jordan McPherson, both of the Miami Herald, relayed the details of these transactions prior to the official club announcement.

Marlins Had Interest In Turner, Lynn, Cron Prior To Trade Deadline

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The Marlins were one of the league’s busier teams in advance of the trade deadline, as Miami made several moves to bolster its lineup and bullpen for the wild card race.  Such names as Josh Bell, David Robertson, Jake Burger, Jorge Lopez, and Ryan Weathers joined the organization, but there were plenty of interesting players on Miami’s radar, including a few who weren’t previously mentioned in pre-deadline buzz.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Levi Weaver report that the Marlins had “extensive discussions” with the Red Sox about Justin Turner, while Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report that the Marlins were also interested in Lance Lynn and C.J. Cron.

Reports surfaced on July 28 that the Sox weren’t moving Turner, which is probably when (as Rosenthal and Weaver write) the Marlins turned their attention to other position players.  Miami’s talks with the White Sox about Lynn also developed into the eventual Burger trade, as the Fish landed Burger for left-hander Jake Eder in a one-for-one swap.  Burger was also something of a fallback once the Marlins balked at the Nationals’ asking price for Jeimer Candelario, and Miami was more comfortable trading a controllable pitcher like Eder for another younger player with multiple years of control, whereas Candelario is a free agent after the season.

Lynn and Cron were seen as likely trade candidates since the White Sox and Rockies are both out of contention, and indeed both players were moved in pre-deadline deals.  (Chicago sent Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers as part of a five-player trade, while the Rockies dealt Cron and Randal Grichuk to the Angels for two pitching prospects.)  There would certainly have been more eyebrows raised over a Turner deal given that the Red Sox are fighting for a wild card berth in the American League, yet even such a trade wouldn’t have been a total shock considering how Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom both moved and acquired veterans at the 2022 deadline when Boston was also on the periphery of the playoff chase.

This year’s deadline season was comparatively quieter at Fenway Park, as the Sox only acquired Luis Urias from the Brewers and sent Enrique Hernandez to the Dodgers.  The Red Sox were known to be looking for controllable pitching, and Rosenthal/Weaver theorize that the Marlins’ deep crop of arms might have gotten Bloom to at least consider the idea of moving Turner.

Speculatively, it is also worth wondering if Edward Cabrera might have been part of the Marlins/Red Sox talks.  Jackson and Mish write that several teams called about Cabrera, to the point that the Marlins had Devin Smeltzer on hand in case Cabrera was moved prior to his scheduled start on Monday.  Cabrera only lasted three innings in that start, and he was optioned to Triple-A on Wednesday and Smeltzer’s contract was officially selected from Triple-A a day later.

As much as the Red Sox needed pitching, it is safe to guess that trading Turner for almost anyone wouldn’t have gone over well with Boston fans, or even within the clubhouse.  Turner has hit .286/.356/.481 with 17 homers over 441 plate appearances, with his offense steadily increasing over the course of the season.  Though Turner will be 39 in November, he is still playing well enough that it’s possible he could opt out of the final season of his two-year contract with the Sox and again enter free agency this winter, looking to land a more lucrative multi-year commitment.  If that scenario occurs, one would imagine the Marlins would come calling, considering their interest in Turner dates back at last winter.

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