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Edward Cabrera

Marlins Option Edward Cabrera

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Amid the flurry of deadline moves yesterday, the Marlins optioned right-hander Edward Cabrera to Triple-A Jacksonville, with Jordan McPherson of The Miami Herald among those who relayed the info.

Cabrera, 25, was generally considered one of the top 100 prospects in the league in his time in the minors but has yet to put together an extended stretch of big league success. He made his debut in the big leagues in 2021 with seven starts, posting an ERA of 5.81 in those. In 2022, he was able to get that down to 3.01, obviously a much better number, but that came in just 14 starts as he made multiple trips to the injured list. He was probably lucky to have that ERA, as his .207 batting average on balls in play and 86.1% strand rate were both on the fortunate side of average, leading to a 4.59 FIP and 4.68 SIERA.

Here in 2023, Cabrera was able to stay healthy for the first half of the season. He did land on the IL in mid-June due to right shoulder impingement, returning after just over a month. His 17 starts and 77 innings are already personal highs at the major league level, and he’s getting strikeouts at a strong 27.6% rate as well as grounders at a 54.4% clip. But he’s paired those with a 15.4% walk rate, the highest such rate of any pitcher with 70 innings pitched this year, almost a full percentage point beyond Alek Manoah’s 14.6% rate. Despite a solid combination of strikeouts and grounders, those control issues have Cabrera’s ERA at 4.79 for the year.

Despite once having a rotation surplus, the Marlins have seen that thinned out this year. They traded Pablo López to the Twins in the offseason and currently have Trevor Rogers and Max Meyer on the 60-day IL. Their rotation mix is now Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Johnny Cueto and Braxton Garrett. With Cabrera nudged out, it’s possible that his spot goes to Ryan Weathers, who was just acquired from the Padres in the Garrett Cooper trade yesterday. Eury Pérez has been optioned himself to monitor his workload, but he could be back up at some point.

This option will likely put the Marlins and Cabrera in a bit of a bind since he only has one option season remaining. Once he spends 20 days on optional assignment, he will burn that last option, meaning he will enter 2024 out of options unless he’s quickly recalled in the coming weeks. It’s unlikely to affect his path to free agency, as he came into this season with 168 days, just under the 172 required for a full year. He’s already gone well beyond that one-year mark, though his chances of reaching Super Two status after 2024 might slip depending on how long he’s in the minors.

The Marlins have a bit of time to decide what to do. If they still believe Cabrera is capable of reining in his control and taking a step forward as a major league starter, they can keep him in that role. Cueto is likely to return to free agency this winter as his $10.5MM club option for 2024 will probably be spurned in favor of a $2.5MM buyout, since he’s mostly been injured and not at his best this year. That could reopen a spot for Cabrera next year, though Rogers and Meyer might be healthy and back in the mix by then as well.

If they think his true future is in the bullpen, they could consider giving him some time in that role now so that he goes into 2024 with a bit of preparation, but doing so would give them a bit less starting depth for the final months of this season. Once the offseason rolls around, they could perhaps pursue trading Cabrera to a rebuilding club with more willingness to give him a starting job at the big league level, though that will be an avenue to pursue in the future. For now, the Fish seem to be at a turning point with the former prospect, which will be an interesting situation to monitor.

Marlins Place Edward Cabrera On 15-Day Injured List

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2:53PM: Cabrera’s IL placement is somewhat precautionary in nature, manager Skip Schumaker told McPherson and other reporters.  “We’re hoping it’s just only two starts [missed].  I don’t think he’s going to miss a bullpen.  He might even throw through that,” Schumaker said.

2:19PM: After already placing Jean Segura on the 10-day injured list earlier today, the Marlins have sent another notable player to the IL.  The Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson (Twitter link) reports that the Fish have placed Edward Cabrera on the 15-day IL due to a right shoulder impingement, with the placement retroactive to June 14.  Right-hander Huascar Brazoban has been called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

Tapped by many as a possible breakout candidate for the 2023 season, it has been an up-and-down year for Cabrera, with his inflated 14.1% walk rate and 17.3% home run rate contributing to much of this inconsistency.  While Cabrera generally does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground (53.7% groundball rate), his big flies have yielded a lot of damage, as his homer rate is the sixth-highest of any hurler in the league with at least 60 innings pitched.  The result is a 4.70 ERA, despite Cabrera’s impressive 28.9% strikeout rate.

Cabrera joins Trevor Rogers and Johnny Cueto as projected rotation stalwarts currently on the injured list, with Rogers and Cueto each on the 60-day version of the IL.  The nature of Cabrera’s shoulder problem isn’t yet known, as an “impingement” could describe a more serious concern or just a minor issue that would allow Cabrera to return in the minimum 15 days.  The right-hander already missed around seven weeks of the 2022 season due to elbow tendinitis, as well as a minor ankle sprain that sent him to the IL at the very end of the season.

The Marlins had slated Cabrera to start Monday’s game against the Blue Jays, so the club doesn’t have long to decide on a replacement.  A bullpen game is one option, or the Fish On First blog (Twitter links) notes that Jeff Lindgren or Chi Chi Gonzalez could be called up for a spot start, as both pitchers are on a normal amount of rest between outings for Triple-A Jacksonville.  Neither Lindgren or Gonzalez are on the 40-man roster, but Avisail Garcia could be moved to the 60-day IL to create space.

Latest On Marlins’ Rotation

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Even after trading Pablo López for Luis Arraez as part of their effort to overhaul the lineup, the Marlins go into 2023 with a strong group of starting pitchers. Defending Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara is followed by Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and offseason pickup Johnny Cueto. The fifth spot has at least been a bit up in the air, with each of Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera having a case for the job out of camp.

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that Cabrera appears to have moved ahead of Garrett on the depth chart. Cabrera has had the edge with regards to Spring Training performance. He’s tossed five innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts and a pair of walks; Garrett, on the other hand, has been tagged for ten runs in 9 1/3 frames with seven punchouts, three walks and a hit batter.

There are certainly more important factors in the club’s decision than small-sample performances in exhibition games. One could argue Cabrera entered camp with the upper hand given his prospect status and higher-octane stuff. The right-hander worked to a 3.01 ERA over 14 starts last year, a solid rookie showing in spite of elbow tendinitis that resulted in a six-week injured list stint. Cabrera averaged north of 96 MPH on his fastball and generated swinging strikes on an excellent 13.3% of his total pitches. That power stuff had previously gotten him onto Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list each season from 2020-22.

The only area of concern for the 24-year-old Cabrera was some inconsistency in his strike-throwing. He walked an elevated 11.3% of batters faced, relying on an unsustainable 86.1% strand rate and .207 batting average on balls in play to keep his ERA around 3.00. Cabrera’s season was overwhelmingly positive overall, though, and the organization no doubt anticipates him pitching alongside Alcantara and Luzardo towards the top of the staff for years to come.

Garrett, 25, is a former seventh overall pick and top prospect in his own right. His stock had dimmed a bit in recent years thanks to inconsistent minor league performances. Garrett had a quietly strong 2022 campaign, though, posting a 3.15 ERA in seven Triple-A starts. More impressively, he worked to a 3.58 ERA with better than average strikeout (24.1%), walk (6.4%) and ground-ball (47.8%) numbers in 17 big league outings. Garrett’s 11.8% swinging strike percentage was solid despite a pedestrian 91.4 MPH average fastball.

Both Cabrera and Garrett figure to get into the Miami rotation throughout the season, as virtually no team goes through a 162-game schedule without any injuries. It’d seem Cabrera is trending towards first crack, with Jackson suggesting that Miami is likelier to option Garrett to Triple-A Jacksonville than have him start the season in long relief at the MLB level. The Alabama native has one minor league option year remaining, as does Cabrera.

Marlins Explored Trades For Mets’ Brett Baty

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The Marlins spent much of the season looking for ways to convert their surplus of starting pitchers into some help at the plate, and that quest might have ended this week when the Fish dealt Pablo Lopez to the Twins as part of a four-player swap that sent Luis Arraez to Miami.  Before that move, however, Mets third base prospect Brett Baty was one of the other names on Miami’s radar, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the Marlins were willing to offer either Jesus Luzardo or Edward Cabrera in return.

Reports earlier this month indicated that the Marlins had also talked to the Mets about Eduardo Escobar, when New York seemingly had an agreement in place with Carlos Correa.  Had the Correa contract been finalized, an Escobar deal to the Marlins might’ve been been more viable, but the Mets naturally opted to hang onto Escobar once the club had some issues with Correa’s physical.  Heyman writes that the Marlins’ interest in Baty existed “both before and after the Mets’ Carlos Correa deal fell through,” and it is probably safe to assume that the Mets’ willingness to move Baty also diminished in the aftermath of the Correa situation.

While there seems to be no financial limit on the Mets’ desire to upgrade their roster, Steve Cohen’s splashy dives into free agency have been related to the club’s desire to hang onto its minor league depth.  While New York has moved some top young players in trades during Cohen’s two-plus years as owner, the Mets haven’t been willing to entirely clean out the farm system for proven veterans.  As such, players like Baty, Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio, and prospects further away from the majors have remained in New York’s organization.

Since Correa is no longer in the picture and the 34-year-old Escobar is entering his last year under contract, Baty may once again be the Amazins’ third baseman of the future, or even present if he starts to take on a larger role in 2023.  Baty made his MLB debut last season and could potentially be deployed in a platoon with Escobar this year, or might see some action in left field.  As Baty recently told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, he would’ve been happy to switch positions in the event of a Correa signing, saying “I just want to be in the big leagues helping a team win.”  Baty also said he feels “stronger than ever” in the wake of the thumb surgery that prematurely ended his 2022 season, and though he has been fully healed since November, Baty will be heading to Spring Training early to make up for lost prep time.

With Baty looking like a key figure in the Mets’ future plans, it would’ve taken quite a trade haul to get the team to change its mind about trading the third baseman….a haul akin to, say, a controllable and talented young pitcher like Luzardo or Cabrera.  Such a trade may no longer be on the table in the wake of the Arraez move, but it would’ve been a fascinating swap of young talents, especially with the added wrinkle of the Mets and Marlins being division rivals.  Either Luzardo or Cabrera would’ve added youth and long-term control to a veteran Mets rotation that currently has only one pitcher (Kodai Senga) locked up beyond the 2024 season.  Carlos Carrasco is entering the last year of his contract, while Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Jose Quintana are all only guaranteed through the 2024 campaign (though Verlander has a vesting option for 2025).

Had the Marlins successfully landed Baty, their roster moves of the last few weeks would’ve naturally been quite different, and the Arraez trade likely doesn’t happen.  In this scenario, Baty likely becomes the new everyday third baseman, while Jean Segura would’ve played second base rather than the hot corner.  This would’ve still opened the door for Jazz Chisholm Jr. to be moved to center field, as the Marlins are seeing if the All-Star second baseman’s speed and arm can translate to success as an outfielder.

Rockies Not Anticipating Significant Roster Move For Remainder Of Offseason

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It has been a quiet offseason in Denver. The Rockies have made a few depth acquisitions, primarily on the pitching staff. They re-signed José Ureña to a $3.5MM deal and brought in reliever Pierce Johnson on a $5MM contract. Brent Suter, Connor Seabold and Nick Mears were added via minor trade or waiver claims. The most significant move of the offseason was the surprising acquisition of young left-handed power hitter Nolan Jones for infield prospect Juan Brito back in November.

Despite their lack of free agent activity, it seems the club is mostly content to carry the roster as it stands into Spring Training. General manager Bill Schmidt told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post this afternoon the group was mostly set (Twitter link). Schmidt added the club would continue to explore potential pitching acquisitions and ways to bolster the depth more broadly, but it seems any further moves will be fairly minor.

That might be disheartening for the Colorado fanbase with the club coming off a 68-94 season, though it wasn’t unforeseeable. Last offseason’s Kris Bryant deal and the club’s series of recent extensions for players like Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Ryan McMahon and Elias Díaz added significant money to the payroll. Colorado entered the offseason with a player payroll at franchise-record levels after accounting for the additional $21MM they”ll owe the Cardinals as part of the Nolan Arenado trade.

With that financial situation, it’s not too surprising the organization mostly sat out free agency. The Rox showed some interest in adding to the starting five and/or bringing in a lefty-hitting outfielder (particularly a center fielder) but seemed eventually priced out of both markets. Perhaps the front office will eventually add a depth arm for the back of the rotation — particularly with Senzatela starting the season on the injured list after tearing his ACL late last summer — but the notable outfield pickup no longer seems to be in the cards.

At the same time, the franchise has again steadfastly refused to entertain any kind of rebuild. For the past few years, Colorado ownership and the front office have maintained faith they have the nucleus of a viable contender and have shown no interest in tearing things down. Reports last month suggested the Rockies were in touch with the Marlins about potentially swapping out second baseman Brendan Rodgers for an immediate MLB starter in Edward Cabrera. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last night that Colorado eventually backed away from that framework.

Without any kind of notable overhaul, it’s difficult to imagine the Rockies finishing any higher than fourth in the NL West during the upcoming season. Colorado has seen some positive developments in the farm system though. The Rockies had four players place on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects this week. Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar got a cup of coffee in the majors last fall and looks likely to be the primary shortstop this year. Outfielder Zac Veen, catcher Drew Romo and middle infielder Adael Amador are each further away but could at least be in the mix in the upper minors.

Marlins, Twins Continue To Discuss Trade Possibilities Involving Luis Arraez, Pablo Lopez

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The Marlins and Twins continue to explore trade possibilities involving Minnesota infielder Luis Arraez and Miami’s surplus of starting pitching, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first wrote last week that Arraez’s name had come up in discussions involving Marlins righty Pablo López but suggested the Twins were uninterested in parting with the infielder.

Hayes similarly hears that Minnesota isn’t willing to pull the trigger on a one-for-one swap of Arraez and López. However, Hayes characterizes Minnesota as willing to entertain larger possibilities involving Arraez and controllable starting pitching targets. While the Twins aren’t actively shopping him, they’re apparently keeping an open mind to broader trade permutations. There’s no indication anything is imminent, and Hayes notes that the sides haven’t directly spoken in several days even as a general line of communication between the clubs seemingly remains open.

The Marlins’ willingness to dealing from the rotation has dated back at least as far as the 2021-22 offseason. Miami has yet to make a major trade but is still generally expected to subtract a starter for an offensive addition between now and Opening Day.

Reports have suggested the Fish were amenable to offers on any of López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. While there’s no indication that’s officially changed, it seems talks are focusing in on the most experienced member of the group. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote this afternoon that López has moved the forefront of Miami’s trade discussions around the league. According to the Herald, discussions on Rogers and Cabrera have “cooled” of late.

That’s not an especially surprising development. López is down to two seasons of remaining club control. Rogers and Luzardo are each controllable for four years, while Cabrera can be retained for another six seasons. That has made López the most straightforward trade candidate in the Miami rotation all along, although early reports this winter suggested the Fish might instead look towards a Rogers deal while keeping López in the fold.

Even with the comparatively lesser control window, López is a highly appealing trade chip for Miami general manager Kim Ng and her staff. The Venezuelan-born righty has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.

He’ll play the 2023 campaign on a $5.45MM salary after avoiding arbitration last week. The 26-year-old will be due one more raise the following year before hitting free agency over the 2024-25 offseason.

Acquiring a starter who’s controllable beyond next season is apparently on the wishlist for a Minnesota club that could see a notable chunk of its rotation depart next winter. Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are all slated for free agency after the 2023 campaign. Of their current starting five, only Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are controllable beyond next season. Minnesota extended their window of control over righty Chris Paddack by an extra season last week, signing him through the end of 2025. He’ll likely get another rotation opportunity at some point but is currently on the mend from the second Tommy John procedure of his career. Young pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder and Louie Varland could play their way into the mix at some point but are far from established.

While it’s easy to see the appeal of adding a quality pitcher like López who’d stick around through 2024, Minnesota remains unwilling to do so in a straight swap for Arraez. The left-handed hitter is arbitration eligible for one season longer than López, controllable through 2025. His 2023 salary remains undefined — he and the club look to be headed for an arbitration hearing after not reaching an agreement last week — but will check in between $5MM and $6.1MM.

Arraez is fresh off his first All-Star campaign. He claimed the American League batting title by hitting .316 and reached base at a .375 clip overall. The 25-year-old only hit eight home runs in 603 plate appearances but is among the sport’s best pure hitters. No qualified hitter struck out less often than Arraez, who went down on strikes in only 7.1% of his trips. He was one of six qualified batters with more walks than strikeouts, drawing free passes at a decent 8.3% rate.

A second base prospect throughout his time in the minors, Arraez has assumed more of a bat-first utility role in recent years. Public defensive metrics have given him mixed reviews for his work at the keystone, and Minnesota turned to him more often at first base in deference to Jorge Polanco last season. Arraez can also play some third base and rotate through designated hitter. Miami has Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jean Segura to play second and third base, respectively. There’d be room for Arraez to join right-handed power bats Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler in the first base/DH mix, and he’s the archetype of the high-contact bat the Miami front office has reportedly sought.

If Miami and the Twins can’t bridge the gap in their trade discussions, the Marlins would find no shortage of interest in López elsewhere. The Padres and Cardinals have also been linked to the hurler this offseason while a number of others checked in at last summer’s trade deadline. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch implied this afternoon (on Twitter) there wasn’t much momentum between the Fish and Cardinals on López right now, though, suggesting that Miami’s interest in St. Louis outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been rebuffed.

Cardinals Among Teams To Inquire On Marlins’ Starters

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The Cardinals and Marlins have held “at least preliminary” discussions regarding Miami’s bevy of young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Rosenthal suggests that St. Louis is a nice fit for Pablo Lopez, although on paper, it’s easy enough to make a case for just about any of the Marlins’ available starters as a fit in St. Louis. Each of Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera has seen his name surface in trade chatter recently. Miami, however, doesn’t seem to have any plans to deal ace Sandy Alcantara, whom the Cardinals actually traded to the Fish alongside Zac Gallen in the deal that sent Marcell Ozuna from Miami to St. Louis.

The Cardinals have a solid-looking rotation on the surface, with each of Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty likely to slot into the starting five. Depth options behind the group include Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Andre Pallante, although the latter two did well in a bullpen setting in 2022. Further down the line are prospects Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy and Tink Hence, although none of that group is on the 40-man roster just yet.

All that said, however, the Cards could lose nearly their entire rotation after the season. Wainwright is set to retire, while each of Mikolas, Montgomery and Flaherty are free agents next winter. Only Matz, whose four-year contract covers the 2022-25 seasons, is signed or controlled beyond the current season.

In that sense, there’s good reason for the Cards to pursue a starter who can be controlled through at least the 2024 season. There’s surely some internal hope that someone like Liberatore, Graceffo or McGreevy can step up and seize a rotation spot when an opportunity inevitably presents itself this season, but that’s a lot to bank on. And, even if that happens, the Cards would still be looking at multiple rotation spots they need to fill next offseason — perhaps as many as three.

Lopez, 27 in March, has a 3.52 ERA over his past 340 big league innings and is arbitration-eligible through the 2024 campaign. Luzardo, even younger at 25, enjoyed a nice bounceback year in 2022 when he notched a 3.32 ERA and 30% strikeout rate, but a forearm injury limited him to just 100 1/3 innings. He’s under team control through 2026. That’s the same amount of club control as the 25-year-old Rogers, a 2021 Rookie of the Year finalist who stumbled to a 5.47 ERA in 107 frames in 2022, his second full MLB campaign. The 24-year-old Cabrera, meanwhile, has six full years of club control remaining and notched a 3.01 ERA in 71 2/3 innings in 2022.

None of that bunch is expensive, with Lopez’s $5.45MM salary leading the way. Finances shouldn’t play a major consideration for the Cardinals anyhow; they’re on pace to roughly match last year’s $163MM payroll, and president of baseball ops John Mozeliak had previously indicated the ability to increase payroll. From Miami’s vantage point, their projected $103MM payroll would be the second-highest mark in club history.

The Marlins are known to be seeking improvements to their lineup and have been prioritizing center field and catcher dating back to last offseason. Miami swung a trade for Pittsburgh catcher Jacob Stallings prior to the 2022 season but saw the former Gold Glove winner turn in a disappointing .233/.292/.292 batting line while his typically high-end defensive grades also cratered. Center field remains an unaddressed need, and Miami again appears likely to take someone better suited for a corner (Bryan De La Cruz) and hope for the best this season.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are deep in outfielders with Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar likely lined up left-to-right at the MLB level. (Rosenthal suggests that of the bunch, Nootbaar is the least likely to change hands.) Top prospect Jordan Walker, who’s likely all but off limits in trade talks, looms behind that group. Alec Burleson, meanwhile, has already gotten some MLB experience, and fellow outfielder Moises Gomez posted big numbers in the upper minors. Behind the plate, the Cards have well-regarded catching prospect Ivan Herrera, who doesn’t exactly have a clear path to a regular role now that Willson Contreras has been signed to a five-year deal.

Certainly, the Cards and Marlins seem to have aligning needs that could lead to a trade, but there’s also no indication that talks are particularly heated. Miami has likely discussed its available starters with more than half the league, given the dearth of viable big league options elsewhere on the trade market. Even the Cards and Marlins themselves don’t know whether a deal will ultimately come together at this juncture, but it’s nevertheless of some note that the two parties have at least held some surface-level talks.

Marlins Letting Teams Know Four Of Their Starters Are Available

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The Marlins’ Pablo Lopez has often come up in trade rumors, but according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Lopez is just one of four starters that the Marlins are telling other teams are available in trade talks. The other three are Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo. It’s been widely reported for quite some time that the Marlins were willing to tap into their pitching surplus in trades, but this sheds more light on who the Marlins are willing to trade and who’s seemingly off limits.

The Marlins have a solid stable of controllable pitching with ace Sandy Alcantara and youngster Braxton Garrett joining that quartet, as well as a group of young arms including Sixto Sanchez, Eury Perez and Max Meyer who should be able to help the big league club within the next few seasons. As such, there’s definitely a surplus of pitching in Miami and the team could well look to offload an arm to bolster their offense.

Last summer, it was reported that the Yankees came close to a deal that would’ve sent Lopez to the Bronx in a deal involving Gleyber Torres. It was also reported this winter that the Marlins and Rockies discussed a deal involving Cabrera and Brendan Rodgers, so it’s not secret that Miami is listening on some of their starters. Notably, both of the two players the Fish would have acquired in those trades are second basemen, but they’ve recently gone out and picked up Jean Segura to bolster their infield group.

Instead, the team could look to turn one of their starters into an outfielder. The Padres have been linked with adding another starter, and have reportedly shown a willingness to trade Trent Grisham, so there could be a match there. It’s also been reported that the Pirates are seeking young pitching to headline any deal for Bryan Reynolds, so if the Marlins are really keen to make a big splash perhaps floating Cabrera as part of a deal would get Pittsburgh’s attention.

With six years of control remaining, Cabrera, 24, would certainly be an attractive acquisition for pitching hungry teams. A former top-100 prospect, he tossed 71 2/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball for the Fish last year, with a solid 25.8% strikeout rate and an 11.3% walk rate.

Luzardo, 25, is hitting arbitration for the first time this year as a Super Two player, and is projected (via Matt Swartz) to make $2MM in 2023. He put together a 3.32 ERA over 100 1/3 innings with a very strong 30% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate. He missed about two-and-a-half months last season with a forearm strain, but a full season of his output would make for a quality starting pitcher. The left-hander is under control for four more years.

Rogers, 25, was excellent in 2021, but took a step back in 2022. The southpaw made the All Star game in ’21 during a season in which he threw 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball. That was followed up by 107 innings of 5.47 ERA ball in ’22, as Rogers saw his strikeout rate drop by about 6% and his walk rate jump by a percentage point. He also saw his HR/FB rate jump from just 5% in 2021 to 13.2% last year. Rogers is under control for four more seasons, and is due to hit arbitration for the first time next winter.

Lopez, 27 in March, was a steady presence in the rotation for the Fish last season, hurling 180 innings of 3.75 ERA ball over 32 starts. He may not possess the upside of the three younger pitchers, but Lopez has been a consistent pitcher for a few years now, finishing up with ERAs of 3.61, 3.07 and 3.75 in the past three years. Projected to make $5.6MM through arbitration this year, he’s under control for another two seasons and would slot nicely into the middle of a lot of rotations around baseball.

Marlins, Rockies Talked About Trade Involving Edward Cabrera, Brendan Rodgers

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The Marlins boosted their offense yesterday, adding Jean Segura on a two-year, $17MM deal to play third base. Yet it appears they are still looking for hitting, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post, and at some stage discussed possible trade scenarios with the Rockies, with Edward Cabrera and Brendan Rodgers the players talked about. It’s not known whether those talks occurred before or after the Segura signing, although it seems probable they came beforehand.

Cabrera, 25 in April, made a solid 14 starts for the Marlins this season, pitching to a 3.01 ERA. He surely benefited from an opponent’s BABIP of just .207, and sure enough advanced metrics such as FIP had him pegged at 4.59. While he did strikeout batters at an above-average 25.8% clip in ’22, his walk rate of 11.3% was below the league average. Nonetheless, it was still a big step forward from a difficult seven starts Cabrera made in 2021 for Miami. Pitching prospects often take a bit of time to settle in at the highest level, and Cabrera is a former top-100 prospect who’s made just 21 big league starts and is yet to reach a full year of service time, so there’s still plenty of time for him to reach his full potential.

The Rockies could certainly use a boost to their rotation, as not one of their projected starting five had an ERA under 4.50 last year, and three finished north of 5.00. Acquiring a young starter like Cabrera would have given them a huge boost in the rotation, particularly over the long term.

The Marlins have been speculated as a possible trade partner for one of their starting pitchers. There were reports at the deadline that the Yankees came close to acquiring Pablo Lopez in a deal involving infielder Gleyber Torres. That didn’t come to fruition, and while it’s not known how far these discussions between the Rockies and Marlins got, it’s interesting to note that it was a similar framework in terms of the Marlins seeking an infielder to headline the return for one of their starting pitchers.

In this case, Rodgers, 26, is a former top-100 prospect himself who had a breakout year in 2022. The bat largely stayed in line with his career numbers, as Rodgers slashed .266/.325/.408 with 13 home runs, but he amassed a staggering 22 Defensive Runs Saved at second base, the second most in all of baseball (behind only Ke’Bryan Hayes). That’s quite the jump forward from the previous year, when Rodgers was worth -5 DRS. That saw Rodgers claim his first Gold Glove award.

The acquisition of Rodgers would have given them arguably one of the best defensive group of infielders in the game, as he would have joined Joey Wendle, Miguel Rojas, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Though it’s worth noting that both Wendle and Rojas have drawn trade interest themselves (Rojas and Wendle).

The exact makeup of a deal, or even how far along in discussions the two teams got, is unknown but it seems unlikely it would have been a straight swap. Rodgers is first year arbitration-eligible and is projected to take home $2.7MM in 2023 (per Matt Swartz’ predictions). He can be controlled for three more seasons, while Cabrera is under control for another six.

Given the signing of Segura, it’d seem unlikely for Miami to seek any more additions in the infield without trading someone away, but they could shift their attention to moving some pitching to get outfield help. The Padres are reportedly open to moving Trent Grisham, while Pittsburgh has reportedly been seeking a top, young starter to headline any deal for Bryan Reynolds, so those two teams as well as a myriad of others could, speculatively, make sense as trade partners for Miami.

Marlins Open To Trading From Rotation Surplus Again This Offseason

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As last year’s offseason was getting started, reports emerged that the Marlins were considering trading from their stock of young starting pitchers in order to bolster their position player mix. In the end, they did trade Zach Thompson as part of the Jacob Stallings trade, though stopped short of a more headline-grabbing deal.

It seems that strategy is still in play, with Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reporting that the club will again look to swap some pitching for some more offense. The report lists ace Sandy Alcantara and the club’s top prospect Eury Perez as the two “untouchable” arms on the team, with the others apparently available for the right price.

In addition to the Thompson trade, there were a few other ways in which the club’s rotation surplus was reduced in the past year. Prospect Max Meyer made two starts before Tommy John surgery put him out of action for the rest of this year and potentially all of next year as well. Sixto Sanchez has continued to deal with shoulder issues, not having thrown in a game since 2020. Elieser Hernandez struggled enough that he got bumped to the bullpen and later optioned to the minors.

Those setbacks aside, the club still has a mix that includes Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Braxton Garrett, Daniel Castano, Nick Neidert, with the report listing Lopez, Cabrera and Rogers as logical trade candidates. It also says the club would consider dealing prospects to a rebuilding team in order to get MLB-ready players. Though Perez is apparently not on the table, Jake Eder and Dax Fulton are mentioned as possibilities.

Lopez, 26, is no stranger to trade rumors, having been frequently mentioned both as someone who could be moved and as someone garnering interest around the league. It was reported last week that the Marlins and Yankees had discussed a deal prior to the deadline that would have seen the Fish acquire Gleyber Torres and infield prospect Oswald Peraza, though the Yanks apparently balked at the deal. There’s no real hurry for the Marlins to deal him, as he can be controlled through the 2024 season via arbitration. He’s in his third straight strong season, registering a 3.66 ERA through 25 starts this year. Perhaps most importantly, he has stayed healthy and put aside some concerns after he missed some of last year with shoulder issues. He’s making $2.45MM this year and will get a raise for next season via arbitration, though he will still be plenty affordable and should find lots of interest from other teams.

The 24-year-old Cabrera would make for a very different trade chip, having much more control but less of a proven track record. He just made his MLB debut last year and missed about six weeks this season due to elbow tendinitis. He only has 15 MLB starts on his ledger so far but has shown promise in that time, registering a 3.71 ERA in his young career. He came into this year with just 40 days of MLB service time but was optioned in the spring and didn’t get recalled until June 1, which should lead to him coming just shy of the one-year mark at the end of this season, even if he remains in the big leagues for the rest of the campaign. That means he should still have six years of control beyond this one, though he is in his final option year, which will mean he will need to hold a spot on an MLB roster starting next year or else be designated for assignment.

Rogers, 24, broke out last year with a 2.64 ERA over 25 starts but has regressed here in 2022. He has a 5.85 ERA through 19 starts and has been on the IL for over a month due to back spasms. He should still hold appeal given his previous showing and four remaining years of control, but he’ll certainly have diminished trade value compared to a year ago.

Eder, 23, was a fourth-round draft pick in 2020. The lefty made 15 Double-A starts last year with a 1.77 ERA before undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. He’s out for this year and might be limited in 2023, though the Marlins are hoping to deal him to a rebuilding club, who may not be so concerned about the short-term outlook. Fulton is also a left-hander but much younger, turning 21 in a couple of months. He was a second round pick in 2020, having since climbed up to Double-A. Between High-A and Double-A this year, he has a 4.05 ERA across 102 1/3 innings.

Whether the club can work out a deal with will of course depend upon lining up with another club. A team with designs on immediate contention would likely be more interested in Cabrera, Rogers or Lopez, while a rebuilding club would lean towards Eder and/or Fulton. It will also depend on what that theoretical other club has to offer the Marlins in return. As Jackson and Mish note in their report, the Marlins will be using the final weeks of the season to audition certain position players and evaluate their future roles. JJ Bleday, Lewin Diaz, Jerar Encarnacion and Peyton Burdick are all listed as players trying to secure jobs on the 2023 team. How they fare in those auditions could have an impact on who the Marlins look to target in trades to improve their lineup. The team as a whole has been about 12% below league average at the plate this year, as indicated by their 88 wRC+, a mark that places them 26th in the majors.

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