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Eury Perez

Eury Perez To Undergo Imaging Due To Elbow Soreness

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The Marlins announced this afternoon that right-hander Eury Perez is experiencing elbow soreness and is set to undergo imaging and testing over the course of the coming days. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that part of the club’s diagnostic process will be a trip to Texas, where Perez will meet with noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister. Earlier this week, Perez was pulled from a Spring Training start after just 14 pitches due to discomfort caused by a broken fingernail.

It’s a brutal blow for the Marlins, who have been ravaged by rotation injuries this offseason. Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery back in the fall and is set to miss the entire 2024 campaign, and since then both Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera have dealt with shoulder issues that could relegate them to the injured list to begin the season. Now Perez appears all but certain to open the regular season on the shelf as well. While the severity of the 20-year-old phenom’s specific issue is uncertain, concerns regarding the elbow are particularly ominous due to the possibility of a lengthy absence.

Elbow surgeries can often wipe out a pitcher’s entire season, as is the case with Alcantara, and even non-surgical rehab can take a pitcher away from game action for months at a time, as was recently demonstrated by Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Even in the best case scenario, the time spent determining the extent of Perez’s injury figures to set him back as he looks to build up his pitch count for the regular season. Perez’s aforementioned fingernail issue has limited his ability to prepare for the coming season this spring, and with just two weeks until Opening Day and the right-hander likely to be sidelined for at least a few more days, it’s hard to imagine him being able to avoid at least a brief stint on the injured list.

With Perez, Cabrera, and Garrett all at least at risk of joining Alcantara on the injured list to open the season, that leaves southpaw Jesus Luzardo as the only member of the club’s on-paper starting rotation who is currently expected to be available on Opening Day. Southpaw A.J. Puk was already widely expected to begin the season in the club’s rotation after the club made the decision to stretch the lefty out despite his success as a high-leverage arm in the club’s bullpen last year, and the injuries also seem likely to open the door for the likes of Trevor Rogers and Ryan Weathers to step into rotation roles as the season begins. That would still leave the fifth spot in the club’s rotation vacant, however, though right-hander Bryan Hoeing represents one option already on the 40-man roster and the club has plenty of potential non-roster options at its disposal including Yonny Chirinos, Vladimir Gutierrez, and Devin Smeltzer.

Of course, none of those potential depth options can be reasonably expected to deliver the sort of impact that Perez offers. The righty, 21 next month, was a consensus top-15 prospect in all of baseball when he made his debut for Miami last year, and he immediately flashed the front-of-the-rotation potential that his prospect pedigree suggested as he dazzled with a microscopic 1.34 ERA and a solid 3.02 FIP in his first nine starts in the majors. He struck out 29.2% of batters faced during that stretch, and while midsummer struggles led the club to limit his workload down the stretch the youngster nonetheless features prominently in the club’s plans for the 2024 season and beyond. So much so, in fact, that Perez was generally regarded as the club’s sole untouchable as they fielded trade offers on the likes of Garrett, Luzardo, and Cabrera during the offseason.

The rotation injuries have been a major blow to a Marlins club that is looking to build upon a surprising postseason appearance in 2023. The club’s starting pitchers ranked top ten in the majors last year in ERA, FIP, and fWAR while striking out the fourth-most batters in all of baseball. That dominant run prevention apparatus was key to the club’s success last year as the lineup lagged behind, ranking just 20th in the majors with a collective wRC+ of 94. With so many injuries impacting the club’s rotation already this year, the team will need strong performance from the likes of Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Jake Burger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. if the club hopes to return to postseason contention in 2024.

Orioles Have Shown Interest In Jesús Luzardo

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The starting pitchers of the Marlins have been popular in trade rumors and the Orioles showed the most interest in left-hander Jesús Luzardo, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It’s unclear exactly when the trade talks took place.

The Orioles have been looking for starting pitching all offseason so it’s logical that they would check in with Miami. The O’s were connected to trade candidates like Dylan Cease and free agents like Michael Lorenzen and James Paxton before landing a big fish when they acquired Corbin Burnes from the Brewers.

From the perspective of the Marlins, they don’t quite have the overflowing rotation surplus that they have had in the past, but it makes sense to listen to offers since they have holes elsewhere on the roster that need to be addressed. Catcher and shortstop are those spots that could clearly be upgraded but free agency doesn’t have many enticing options, so perhaps moving a starter would be their best bet even if the depth isn’t quite what it was.

They traded Pablo López to the Twins last winter as part of the return for Luis Arráez and then Sandy Alcantara required Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2023 campaign. Additionally, they traded prospect Jake Eder to the White Sox for Jake Burger, thinning out the depth a bit.

After all that, the club’s rotation mix currently consists of Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers, with Sixto Sánchez, Ryan Weathers and Meyer are some of the other options on the roster.

That group has its question marks. Cabrera gets tons of strikeouts and ground balls but has also walked 14% of batters faced in his career. He’s now out of options and can no longer be sent to the minors to continue refining his command. Rogers was great in 2021 but his results backed up in 2022 and then he was limited by injuries in 2023. He made four April starts last year before going on the injured list due to a left biceps strain, later being diagnosed with a partial tear in his right lat, never making it back to the club. Sánchez has thrown just one minor league inning over the past three years due to ongoing shoulder problems. Weathers had poor results last year while Meyer missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The Marlins are reportedly setting a high asking price in trade talks concerning Luzardo, which is a sensible position to take. With that group of starters, they don’t strictly need to move someone since it’s arguably flimsy as it is. Luzardo is also under club control through the 2026 season, meaning the club needn’t be in any kind of hurry. He’s making $5.5MM this year and will be due two more arbitration raises in the seasons to come. That’s a bargain price for a guy who made 50 starts over the past two years with a 3.48 ERA, 28.7% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate.

Cabrera and Rogers have also received some trade interest, but the asking price on them would naturally be lower on account of the Cabrera’s control problems and Rogers’ injury issues. Jackson and Mish add that the Marlins and Royals had talks about some kind of blockbuster involving Pérez and Bobby Witt Jr. but those talks quickly fizzled out. Those talks were towards the end of last season, while Kim Ng was still running the baseball operations department. Jackson and Mish report that the new regime, led by Peter Bendix, considers Pérez untouchable.

But with the holes elsewhere on the roster, there would be an argument for taking the right deal. The Marlins reportedly asked about catching prospect Samuel Basallo in trade talks with the Orioles, but the O’s had no interest in making him available. Part of Baltimore’s never-ending parade of elite prospects, Basallo is currently ranked 10th in the league by Baseball America and 7th by FanGraphs.

The Marlins currently have a catching tandem of Christian Bethancourt and Nick Fortes. Both are fairly well regarded on defense but don’t provide a lot with the bat. Bethancourt hit .231/.261/.361 last year and Fortes just .204/.263/.299. The 19-year-old Basallo would be more of a long-term solution there, as he only has four games above High-A and is unlikely to crack the majors for much of 2024, if at all.

The Orioles could also theoretically stand to part with Basallo since they already have a cornerstone catcher in Adley Rutschman, but that doesn’t seem like it will motivate them towards a deal. They also have a surplus of young talent on the infield and outfield but have generally held onto the majority of it, apart from including Joey Ortiz in the Burnes deal. They still seem to have too many players for the playing time they have to distribute but appear to be quite patient in letting moves come together.

As mentioned, it’s unclear exactly when the talks regarding Luzardo took place. Presumably, they were before the Burnes deal, but there would have been an argument for the O’s to still be pursuing rotation upgrades even after that. After that trade, the rotation projected to be Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and John Means. That’s a talented group but Rodriguez was inconsistent as a rookie last year while Means just returned from a lengthy Tommy John layoff. Adding Luzardo into that group would have been a viable path for the O’s to take, so it’s possible the talks happened post-Burnes, even if they didn’t make much headway.

It’s possible that their desire to get a deal done may have increased this week, however. It was reported today that Bradish has been diagnosed with a sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament, raising the spectre of Tommy John surgery. It’s still not determined if he will need to go under the knife but he will at least start the season on the injured list. Additionally, Means is about a month behind schedule due to an elbow issue he dealt with last year.

With two-fifths of their projected starting rotation now questionable, perhaps the O’s will circle back to the Marlins and reopen these talks at some point. Though the free agent market also still features notable names like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and many more. Meanwhile, Cease is still on the White Sox while other trade candidates like Shane Bieber or Paul Blackburn could still be available. Even after the Burnes trade, the O’s are still considered to have an excellent farm system and could pull off just about any trade they decide to make if they really wanted.

Corbin Carroll Wins National League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll has won the National League Rookie of the Year award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Mets right-hander Kodai Senga came in second while Dodgers outfielder James Outman placed third.

Carroll was selected to Arizona’s roster in late August of last year, allowing him to get a taste of the majors but without exhausting his rookie status. He fared extremely well in that audition, hitting .260/.330/.500 in his first 115 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 131, indicating he was 31% better than the league average hitter in that time. The D’Backs felt confident enough in Carroll based on that showing, and his work as a minor leaguer, to give him an eight-year extension with a guarantee of $111MM.

They were hoping he would be an integral part of the club and help them make the postseason for the first time since 2017. He went on to have an incredible showing in his first full season in the majors, hitting 25 home runs and stealing 54 bases. His .285/.362/.506 line led to a 131 wRC+ and he also got strong grades for his outfield defense. He produced 6.0 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs while Baseball Reference had him at 5.4. The club did indeed break their postseason drought, snagging a Wild Card spot and eventually going all the way to the World Series.

While the award is surely thrilling for Carroll and the Snakes on its own, there are other implications of Carroll taking the trophy. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Carroll, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #2 prospect on all three of those lists. Gunnar Henderson, who got the AL trophy today, was #1.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Carroll did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the Diamondbacks, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Senga also had a strong season, his first after coming over from Japan. He made 29 starts for the Mets with a 2.98 earned run average, 29.1% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. Players considered by MLB to be foreign professionals, as Senga is, aren’t eligible to earn PPI picks for their clubs. Outman also had a solid campaign, hitting 23 home runs and stealing 16 bases. He struck out in 31.9% of his plate appearances but offset that somewhat by walking at a 12% clip. His .248/.353/.437 batting line led to a wRC+ of 118 and he also graded out well in the field. He wasn’t considered a top 100 prospect coming into the year and wouldn’t have qualified for a PPI pick even if he surpassed Senga for second place.

The voting was unanimous, per the vote tally at BBWAA, with Carroll getting all 30 first-place votes. Senga got 22 second-place votes and Outman got five. Other players getting votes were Nolan Jones of the Rockies, Eury Pérez of the Marlins, Patrick Bailey of the Giants and three Reds: Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins Place Eury Perez On 15-Day Injured List, Select Jeff Lindgren

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The Marlins have selected the contract of right-hander Jeff Lindgren, per a club announcement. In a corresponding move, right-hander Eury Perez has been placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to September 21) with left SI joint inflammation. The move to the IL brings an end to Perez’s regular season, at the very least. He’ll also be unavailable for the Wild Card series of a potential playoff run, though it’s not currently clear if he could return later in the postseason, should Miami make it that far.

Perez, 20, made his MLB debut for the Marlins earlier this year. He was considered one of the sport’s top pitching prospects at the time and made an immediate impression upon reaching the majors with a 1.34 ERA and 3.03 FIP in addition to a 29.2% strikeout rate across his first nine starts. Miami made the decision to option Perez to the minors in early July with the hope of managing his innings total in 2023 while also keeping him available for the stretch run and a potential postseason push.

Things didn’t go according to plan, however. In addition to Perez landing on the injured list for the final week of the season, the rookie’s results have been far less impressive since returning to the majors in early August. In his last 38 innings (eight starts), he’s posted just a 4.26 ERA and 4.71 FIP. That late-season downturn in performance culminated in a three-inning outing against the Mets this past Wednesday where Perez allowed three runs (two earned) on three hits and three walks while stirking out just two. Overall, Perez will finish his first regular season as a big leaguer with a 3.15 ERA and 4.12 FIP in 91 1/3 innings of work.

The news comes on the heels of today’s announcement that ace right-hander Sandy Alcantara won’t pitch again this year. The news combines for a devastating pair of blows to the Marlins rotation as they’re in the midst of a late-season playoff. The club sat just one game back of the Cubs for the final NL Wild Card spot entering play today, but will now have to lean on a rotation group headlined by left-handers Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett. With veteran Johnny Cueto long since demoted to relief work, righty Edward Cabrera and potential depth options like David Smeltzer and Ryan Weathers will have to help carry the load in the absence of Perez and Alcantara going forward.

Lindgren is another such option. He’s spent the season riding the waiver wire with Miami, as this is the fourth time the Marlins have selected his contract this season. The right-hander’s stints with the big league club have been brief, but he’s posted a 5.14 ERA that’s only slightly below league average by measure of ERA+ (91) with a 4.69 FIP in his seven innings of work with the club. With a 4.88 ERA in a swing role at the Triple-A level this season, Lindgren could be a valuable source of innings for a rapidly thinning Marlins pitching staff over the season’s final stretch.

East Notes: Red Sox, Verdugo, Severino, Narvaez, Perez

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The Red Sox issued a positive update regarding the status of right-hander Garrett Whitlock today, with manager Alex Cora (as relayed by MassLive’s Christopher Smith) indicating that he’s poised to begin a minor league rehab assignment next week. Whitlock has been on the 15-day injured list due to a bone bruise in his elbow for just over a month. Meanwhile, both right-hander Tanner Houck and left-hander Chris Sale could also be nearing returns, with Houck expected to make three rehab starts before rejoining the club while Sale will be evaluated tomorrow as he nears a return to the majors.

Whitlock’s return to the Red Sox, according to Cora, could come with a change of role, as the manager indicated there was “a good chance” that Whitlock would be used in a multi-inning relief role rather than as a member of the rotation. That’s a role that has suited Whitlock quite well throughout his career, as he owns a sterling 2.24 ERA in 112 2/3 innings of work out of the bullpen, a far more impressive figure than his rather pedestrian 4.76 ERA in 19 starts as a member of the rotation.

Even with Whitlock seeming ticketed for the bullpen, the impending returns of Houck and Sale could create a logjam in Boston’s rotation. With the aforementioned trio on the shelf, the club was recently forced to move right-hander Nick Pivetta back into the rotation alongside regular starters James Paxton, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford despite the fact that Pivetta sported a dominant 1.98 ERA in 41 innings coming out of the bullpen since he was removed from the rotation back in May.

With Paxton, Bello, and Sale all likely locked into rotation spots when healthy, the Red Sox will have to pick one of Pivetta, Houck, or Crawford to join Whitlock in the rotation unless the club plans on moving to a six-man rotation upon the return of Sale and Houck to starting action. While Pivetta’s 5.98 ERA coming out of the rotation is the weakest figure of that trio, his 7 1/3 inning, three-run outing in his return to the starting rotation may to have given Red Sox brass renewed confidence in him as a starting option going forward.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • Sticking with the Red Sox, outfielder Alex Verdugo was scratched from today’s lineup shortly before the game started. Following the game, Cora briefly discussed Verdugo’s situation with reporters, including Smith. In his comments, Cora indicated that Verdugo’s absence from the lineup was not injury-related. While neither Cora nor Verdugo commented on the specifics of the situation, Cora stressed that it was “the manager’s decision”, saying: “We need everybody available. I decided the reason that he didn’t play. But he wasn’t available today. He was ready to play but he wasn’t available. … The manager decided not to play him today. And he has his reason. I’m not going to go into details or whatever.” After a hot start to the 2023 campaign, Verdugo has slashed just .157/.245/.277 in 94 trips to the plate since the start of July.
  • Yankees manager Aaron Boone indicated to reporters, including The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, that “everything is on the table going forward” regarding right-hander Luis Severino, including a move to the bullpen. Once a rising star in the game as a reliable, front of the rotation arm, Severino has struggled massively in 13 starts this season with a 7.74 ERA and 6.56 FIP. Severino has made fifteen appearances out of the bullpen during his career to excellent results. He’s posted a microscopic 0.31 ERA with a 30.6% strikeout rate in 29 1/3 innings of work as a reliever. If Severino were to exit the rotation, that could open up starts for a younger arm like Jhony Brito or Randy Vasquez.
  • Sticking to New York, Mets catcher Omar Narvaez indicated to Will Sammon of The Athletic that he would “probably be back next season” when discussing his upcoming $7MM player option for 2024. Narvaez opened the season as the club’s starting catcher but suffered a calf strain early in the season. While Narvaez was on the shelf, youngster Francisco Alvarez emerged as the club’s everyday player behind the plate, leaving Narvaez in a part-time role upon his return. In addition to his diminished role, Narvaez has struggled badly at the plate this season, slashing just .189/.281/.245 with a wRC+ of 54 in 24 games this year.
  • The Marlins figure to welcome young right-hander Eury Perez back to the rotation on Monday, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Perez made his last big league start on July 6 before being optioned to the minors in an effort to manage his innings and keep him fresh for the stretch run. Perez’s return figures to be a significant boost to the Marlins rotation, as he impressed with a 2.36 ERA and 3.70 FIP in eleven starts during his first stint in the majors earlier this season. The Marlins currently sport a 58-54 record and are just half a game out of the final NL Wild Card spot. That spot is currently occupied by the Reds, against whom Perez is slated to make his return on Monday.

Marlins Looking To Add Starting Pitcher

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The Marlins pulled off one of the bigger moves of deadline season last night, acquiring back-end reliever David Robertson for a pair of promising low minors prospects. It’s the first of what is likely to be multiple additions for a Miami club that currently sits just outside the NL Wild Card picture.

Before the Robertson deal, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported that adding both a starter and a reliever were Miami’s top priorities. They moved quickly on the latter front but figure to explore the rotation market over the coming days.

It’s surprising to see the Fish looking for rotation help at first glance. For a few seasons, Miami has skewed rotation-heavy and been light on offense. As a result, the Marlins dealt Pablo López to Minnesota for Luis Arraez in an effort to balance the roster.

That said, the Marlins’ rotation has been more good than exceptional in 2023. They rank 11th in starting pitching ERA, allowing 4.11 earned runs per nine innings. They’re third in strikeout rate (25.4%), 11th in walks (7.5%) and third in grounder percentage (45.9%). Starting pitching certainly hasn’t been a weakness, but it hasn’t been quite as effective as last year’s group — which ranked eighth in ERA behind a Cy Young performance from Sandy Alcantara.

Some amount of regression was probably inevitable. The López trade subtracted arguably Miami’s second-best starter. The Marlins rearranged their infield, installing Arraez at second base to push Jazz Chisholm to the outfield. They signed Jean Segura to move to third and dealt away Miguel Rojas while moving Joey Wendle to shortstop. All those transactions were designed to add offense — and the Arraez trade in particular has achieved that — but come with the expected effect of reducing the defensive efficiency behind a ground-ball heavy pitching staff.

That’s among the reasons for Alcantara’s step back, although there are myriad factors whenever a pitcher’s ERA jumps more than two runs (from 2.28 to 4.46). They’re obviously not going to displace Alcantara from the rotation, but his relative down season magnifies some of the other challenges Miami has faced.

Trevor Rogers has been on the injured list since the middle of April; a partial tear in his non-throwing shoulder leaves him with an uncertain return timetable. Free agent pickup Johnny Cueto lost a couple months to injury and was knocked around on his minor league rehab stint. Miami broke him in as a reliever before moving him back into the rotation last weekend.

Top prospect Eury Pérez has had a brilliant start to his MLB career, but he’s back in the minors temporarily as the club keeps an eye on his workload. The 20-year-old has already set a personal high with 86 2/3 innings between Double-A and the majors this season. Bryan Hoeing has gotten six starts but allowed a 6.66 ERA in 24 1/3 frames over that stretch. He’s been much better in a multi-inning relief role.

There have also been signs of promise, of course. Jesús Luzardo has taken another step forward and looks like a #2 caliber starter. Braxton Garrett, who opened the season in the minors, has stepped up with a 4.32 ERA and above-average peripherals through 100 innings. Edward Cabrera is missing plenty of bats and racking up grounders, though he’s walking over 14% of opponents and has an ERA approaching 5.00.

Miami has plenty of high-upside arms who are capable of starting a playoff game if they play into October. They don’t need to shop at the top of the rotation market. There’s some sense in adding a stable back-end starter to ease the workload on some of Miami’s younger arms — in effect playing the role the Marlins envisioned from Cueto when they signed him in January.

While rotation help now seems to be the front office’s priority, Ng and her group will also certainly remain on the lookout for ways to add to the lineup. They’ve been loosely linked to Jeimer Candelario and Tim Anderson within the past week. Rosenthal writes that Miami made a run at first baseman Carlos Santana before the Pirates dealt him to Milwaukee. The Marlins should have a few irons in the fire over the next few days as a somewhat surprising entrant into the rotation market.

Marlins Select Robert Garcia, Designate Jeff Lindgren

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The Marlins selected the contract of left-hander Robert Garcia, reports Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald, with righty Jeff Lindgren designated for assignment in a corresponding move. They also optioned Eury Pérez and recalled Sean Reynolds, both of which were reported earlier today.

Garcia, 27, cracks a big league roster for the first time. Originally a Royals prospect, he came over to the Marlins in the minor league portion of the 2021 Rule 5 draft. He split last year between Double-A and Triple-A, posting a 3.75 ERA in 62 1/3 innings. He struck out 24.5% of batters faced while walking 11.5%. He’s spent all of this year in Triple-A, with his walk rate jumping to 13.3% but his strikeout rate ticking up to 34.2%. He has a 2.95 ERA through 36 2/3 innings this year.

Lindgren, 26, has thrice been added to the Marlins’ roster this year only to be quickly designated for assignment shortly thereafter. He’s tossed seven big league innings over three appearances with a 5.14 ERA. He’s spent more time in Triple-A, with a 4.55 ERA in 61 1/3 innings over 12 starts.

The Marlins will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. Both of his previous DFAs resulted in him clearing waivers and being outrighted to the minors. Players with previous career outrights have the right to reject further assignments in favor of electing free agency. Lindgren could have therefore rejected his second outright but elected to stay in the organization. It’s possible that the same series of events plays out again in the coming days, though that remains to be seen.

Marlins Option Eury Pérez

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The Marlins are optioning right-hander Eury Pérez to the minor leagues, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It might seem like a strange decision at first blush since the rookie has an excellent 2.36 ERA through his first 11 starts, but it was reported earlier that the club was going to manage the youngster’s innings this year.

Pérez came into this season regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in the league, despite a fairly limited track record. He was signed as an amateur in 2019, but then the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in 2020. He made his professional debut in 2021, tossing 78 innings. Last year, he was on pace to eclipse that mark but suffered a lat strain in the summer and was limited to shorter stints upon his return, finishing the year with just 77 innings pitched.

He’s had excellent results everywhere he’s pitched but came into 2023 without having cracked 80 innings in a season. He continued his run of excellent at the start of this year, posting a 2.32 ERA over 31 Double-A innings. He got called up to the majors and has thrived with a 2.36 ERA in 53 1/3 innings, striking out 28.4% of opponents against a 7.9% walk rate. Between Double-A and the majors, he’s already at 84 1/3 innings this year, more than either of the previous two campaigns.

Mish provides some more context in a subsequent tweet, saying that the club had planned on making this move earlier in the year. However, injuries to Johnny Cueto, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers, as well as the continued excellence of Perez, pushed them to keep rolling with him for a while longer. Now the All-Star break is imminent and Cueto is nearing a return, putting them in a better position to continue without him. By all accounts, the club is hoping to slow Pérez down, using the less-competitive environment of the minors to manage his workload so that he still has some bullets left for the postseason race or appearing in the playoffs themselves. Mish adds that the timeline of this plan hasn’t yet been definitively worked out.

Subtracting Pérez from the rotation leaves them with Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Bryan Hoeing. Cueto will be rejoining the club after the All-Star break, per Mish, but his role has yet to be determined. He posted a 10.50 ERA over six rehab starts and perhaps the club is hesitant to install him back into a rotation job right away. Cabrera is also working his way back to health and will start a rehab assignment tomorrow, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.

As for Pérez and his service time, he was called up May 10 and wasn’t going to be able to get to a full year here in 2023. He could have been granted the entire year by finishing in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but that was always going to be a challenge as long as these workload limits were part of the conversation. He would have been in a decent position to qualify for arbitration after 2025 as a Super Two player, though his odds of maintaining that trajectory will be dropped, depending on how the rest of the season plays out.

Marlins Notes: Perez, Cueto, Rogers, Chisholm

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Right-hander Eury Perez has been just about everything the Marlins could have hoped for when they promoted the 20-year-old top prospect to the majors directly from the Double-A level. In eight major league starts this season, Perez has posted a sensational 1.54 ERA in 41 innings of work. While those numbers are already fantastic, Perez has been even more impressive over his last five starts. In that time, he’s allowed a microscopic ERA of just 0.33 while striking out 29 in 27 innings and walking just 7.8% of batters faced. A single solo home run represents the only baserunner to cross home plate against Perez during that period.

With the youngster on such an impressive run of late, one might assume that the Marlins plan to continue riding the wave of Perez’s success as the club attempts to parlay a solid start to the season into a playoff appearance. After all, Miami’s 43-34 record leaves them in second place in their division and firmly in the NL wild card picture alongside the Giants and Dodgers. According to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, however, the plan might not be that simple. While Mish notes that Perez is expected to make at least two more starts, one tomorrow against the Pirates and the other next weekend against the Braves, he also notes that pumping the brakes on Perez from then until after the All Star break is “something [that’s] under consideration.”

Mish’s report comes on the heels of him noting earlier this month that the Marlins were planning to “slow down” Perez in order to manage his innings and hopefully leave him healthy and available for the end of the 2023 campaign and a potential postseason run. Perez has already thrown 72 innings between Double-A and the majors this season despite the fact that he’s never thrown more than 77 innings in a season during his professional career. With Perez’s arm quickly heading toward uncharted territory, it’s somewhat understandable for Miami to exercise caution with their young phenom, even as the club is in the middle of a surprisingly competitive season.

Should Perez indeed take a seat for a few turns through the rotation, the Marlins will have to find another starter to line up alongside Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Bryan Hoeing. Miami’s rotation depth has been tested significantly throughout the season, with each of Edward Cabrera, Johnny Cueto, and Trevor Rogers currently on the injured list. The club has indicated that Cabrera’s stay on the IL is expected to be a brief one, though, and Cueto is also progressing towards a return (as noted by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald) after his third rehab start at the Triple-A level on Thursday.

Rogers, on the other hand, is not expected back any time soon. Per McPherson, the left-hander is dealing with a partial tear in his right lat, an ailment Rogers himself tells reporters is rather rare for left-handed pitchers. On a more optimistic note, Rogers notes that he believes he’ll be able to avoid surgery, and that he’s currently hoping to have more clarity on when he can resume throwing following the All Star break. Rogers, of course, impressed in 2021 with a 2.64 ERA in 133 innings of work en route to the first All Star appearance of his career. The lefty hasn’t measured up to that career year since then, however, with a 5.26 ERA and 4.32 FIP in 27 starts since the start of the 2022 campaign.

McPherson also discussed the timetable for center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s return to action, which manager Skip Schumaker told reporters could come as soon as the club’s upcoming road trip through Boston and Atlanta, which is set to start on Tuesday. It’s been a mixed year for Chisholm so far, as the 25 year old has slashed just .229/.291/.403 coming off an All Star appearance in 2022. That performance is good for a wRC+ of just 90, 10% below league average. On the other hand, the youngster has taken to his new and difficult defensive position admirably despite his lack of experience; his +3 OAA in center field ranks in the 86th percentile of all fielders this season despite Chisholm having played just 39 games.

Big Hype Prospects: Encarnacion-Strand, Lawlar, Perez, Merrill, Amador

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Last week, I described how the Reds might muck about with Elly De La Cruz’s service time – if they chose to do so. Instead, they promptly promoted him. It’s always a relief to see deserving prospects promoted in a timely manner.

To date, De La Cruz is batting .364/.481/.636 in 27 plate appearances with a home run and three steals. His 37 percent strikeout rate is the lone blemish. Like the rookie version of Fernando Tatis Jr., De La Cruz has the capacity to perform despite a high strikeout rate.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
199 PA, 17 HR, .362/.427/.734

Next up in the Reds developmental pipeline is Encarnacion-Strand. Known as CES to those who like to write about him without using 28 characters, the powerful corner infielder has punished opposing pitchers to the tune of .542/.633/1.042 (1.675 OPS) in his last six games. He hit seven singles, three doubles, and three home runs over the span.

There are aspects of his game that can temper enthusiasm. There’s a risk his plate approach and high swinging strike rates could lead to high strikeout rates. At this point, he’s utterly eviscerated Triple-A. It’s time to see if those concerns are warranted. The Reds have a minor issue to resolve when it comes to selecting CES’s promotion date. Joey Votto’s rehab will end in about 12 days. His recovery in Triple-A is progressing at a slow pace. Fitting all three of CES, Votto, and Spencer Steer in the regular lineup could prove challenging – and would cost Tyler Stephenson playing time too. Such impediments shouldn’t block Encarnacion-Strand for much longer.

Jordan Lawlar, 20, SS, ARI (AA)
215 PA, 8 HR, 15 SB, .238/.335/.443

Considered one of the top athletes in the minors, Lawlar’s time in Double-A hasn’t been all that impressive. However, in the last week, he’s hitting .407/.429/.704 in 28 plate appearances. He has a 1.029 OPS over his last 73 plate appearances. It would seem he’s made an adjustment. Reports from public sources note concerns about his hit tool. Every other aspect of his game is expected to be above average. Lawlar is the penthouse apartment of prospects – he has a high floor and higher ceiling. Presently, he is on pace to debut in 2024.

Eury Perez, 20, SP, MIA (MLB)
29 IP, 9.31 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 2.17 ERA

Perez is a big part of the Marlins recent success. Already 3-1 in just six starts, Perez hasn’t missed a beat since skipping from Double-A to the Majors in mid-May. His only truly sub-par outing occurred at Coors Field. While ERA-estimators (4.34 FIP, 4.68 xFIP) suggest he’s had some luck with run prevention, this is still an impressive performance from a young 20-year-old (he has a mid-April birthday).

A peek under the hood suggests Perez still has a thing or two to learn about using his repertoire. He’s regularly using all four of his pitches. Hitters have performed well against his 97.5-mph heater, but they’ve struggled versus the offspeed stuff. Perez features a “big” fastball. It shouldn’t perform as a below-average offering. It’s possible he’s trying to make pitches that would work in Double-A but not the Majors. As he acclimates, I expect his fastball to grade out better.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
206 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .257/.296/.387

The third-highest ranked “Jackson” on most prospect lists, Merrill was a contender for Top 10 prospect status over the offseason. He’s backed up a bit in the early going. The Midwest League happens to be one of the more difficult hitting environments in the minors. While the above triple-slash probably looks bad, it’s only six percent below the league average. Merrill is a hit-over-power prospect who produces high-quality, low-angle contact. The left-handed hitter draws a Michael Brantley comp from the folks at FanGraphs. Though injuries have reduced his developmental opportunities, he remains on pace to debut by his age 22 season.

Adael Amador, 20, 2B, COL (A+)
228 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .306/.392/.510

Last season, Amador profiled as a flexible utility fielder. While there’s never been any question about his feel for contact, the quality of that contact often raised eyebrows in a bad way. Amador looks “small” on the field, and that likely colored scouting reports. He’s strengthened over the last year to the point where he’s no longer seen as an ideal utility candidate. He’ll likely plant at second base for the long haul – especially with defensively adept Ezequiel Tovar ahead of him at shortstop. The switch-hitting Amador still has adjustments to make if he’s to make full use of spacious Coors Field. He taps most of his contact on the ground, though the quality of said contact has continually improved over time. Amador has more walks than strikeouts in his professional career and is running a 4.4 percent swinging strike rate this season. He should reach Double-A before much longer.

Three More

Andrew Painter, PHI (20): Painter was on pace to debut as a 19-year-old when a sprained UCL ended his Spring Training bid. He threw a 20-pitch bullpen on Saturday. The coming weeks mark an important step in his recovery.

Marcelo Mayer, BOS (20): Mayer’s time in Double-A isn’t going so hot. The shortstop is batting .154/.227/.333 in 45 plate appearances. A recent report on FanGraphs noted a mechanical shortcoming similar to Jarred Kelenic and Spencer Torkelson – namely, an issue with lifting balls low in the zone.

Connor Norby, BAL (23): There’s no question the Orioles have a lot of infield depth. I’m often asked whom I believe they’ll trade from that depth. Norby is my answer. The short right-handed hitter doesn’t have the utility of others in the system. He’s Major League adjacent and primed for a regular role within the next year. However, he profiles more like a core performer than a high-ceiling star.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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