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Make Or Break Year: How Are They Doing?

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Before the season, MLBTR writers identified 13 players who were set for 'make or break' years. These players had experienced ups and downs in their respective careers and were positioned to re-establish themselves as difference makers at the Major League level and set themselves up for success in free agency. Now that we're at the quarter pole for the 2011 season, let's check in on the lucky 13 players (all links go to the MLBTR posts):

  • Scott Kazmir - Kazmir, now on the DL, has appeared in one game this year and he allowed five runs, five hits and two walks in 1 2/3 innings. I'll be surprised if he signs a guaranteed contract this winter.
  • Nate McLouth – McLouth was coming off a poor 2010 season, but the results are much better in 2011. He has a .262/.355/.379 line, though UZR/150 suggests his defense in center field has been poor since 2009.
  • Grady Sizemore – After missing most of 2010 with a knee surgery that required microfracture surgery, Sizemore returned with a vengeance, only to hit the disabled list with an injury to his other knee. In 18 games before he got hurt, Sizemore posted a .282/.333/.641 line with six homers.
  • Ryan Doumit - Though he has only stepped to the plate 82 times, Doumit has a healthy .278/.358/.458 batting line. The switch-hitter has been available in trades for a while and it wouldn't be surprising to see him dealt this summer.
  • Jonathan Broxton – Broxton is on the disabled list with a bruised right elbow and there's no timetable for his return. If he doesn't pitch well later this season, he will be overshadowed by this offseason's strong crop of free agent relief pitchers.
  • Joel Zumaya - Zumaya had elbow surgery a week ago today and is now resting and rehabbing. It's not clear that he'll return to the Tigers this year.
  • Casey Blake – Blake required surgery for an elbow infection and could return to the Dodgers soon. Before he got hurt, the 37-year-old had a .956 OPS in 66 plate appearances.
  • Aramis Ramirez - Ramirez is off to a so-so .287/.347/.368 start, but his power can sneak up on people, as it did last year when he hit 19 homers after July 5th.
  • Edwin Jackson - Still just 27, Jackson has a 4.53 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 55 2/3 innings. His name appears multiple times on the leaderboard for free agent starters.
  • Bobby Abreu - The 37-year-old doesn't have much power at this stage in his career (.327 slugging, .072 isolated power), but you won't find many hitters capable of a .377 OBP.
  • Carlos Beltran - Beltran has rebounded in a big way this year. The way he's hitting (.286/.381/.564, 8 homers) he'll be among the most appealing free agents available after the season. I suggested this spring that he and agent Scott Boras could ask for a multiyear deal and that seems even more likely now.
  • Matt Capps - Capps hasn't walked anyone in 18 1/3 innings and he has five saves and a 3.93 ERA. The 27-year-old's value doesn't appear to have changed much this year.
  • Jeff Francis - Though Francis is 0-5 with a 4.83 ERA, he has averaged 6.0 innings per start for the Royals and has a respectable 27K/10BB ratio. The left-hander seems healthy after consecutive seasons with shoulder issues.

Heyman On Lincecum, Cano, Votto, Weaver, Dodgers

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Ryan Braun's $105MM, five-year contract extension through 2020 seemed like it came out of nowhere, but a ton of other young stars also appear to be in line for new deals, writes Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.  Heyman runs down the 20-somethings that could get hefty contract extensions and touches on a few other things in today's column..

  • Giants ace Tim Lincecum won't be a free agent until after the 2013 season, but San Francisco would be wise to lock him up before his arbitration numbers get out of hand.  A third Cy Young season could potentially bring Lincecum from $14MM into the $25MM range and possibly to $30MM in '13.  Heyman expects a deal to get done, even if it costs the club a fortune.  MLBTR's Tim Dierkes touched on the Lincecum situation here and here, and will have much more on the topic next week.
  • Similarly, there's no reason to think the Yankees would let Robinson Cano leave in the prime of his career.  The Bombers have options for 2012 and '13 at $14MM and $15MM, respectively, and will obviously exercise them. Look for the Yanks to get a deal done with the second baseman, but only after the Scott Boras client files for free agency.
  • Reds slugger Joey Votto will hit the open market after 2013 and it would be wise for the club to lock him up as the youngster continues to improve.  This winter he signed a three-year, $38MM to take care of his arbitration years, but his rate will presumably rise after that deal is up.  Heyman believes that the Reds will lock up Votto, just as they did with Jay Bruce.  This winter, Cincinnati signed the right fielder to a six-year, $51MM deal.
  • Even though the Marlins' poor attendance would seem to indicate that the club doesn't have the funds to sign Josh Johnson to a new deal, they are on their way to a brand-new facility in the near future.  Putting that aside, they're still in the black. His $39MM, four-year deal goes through 2013 but his next contract should easily top that.
  • If you're a Halos fan looking to purchase a Jered Weaver jersey, you may want to reconsider.  Heyman writes that the right-hander is all but a goner in two years.  Agent Scott Boras is talking his client up and the Angels don't have a history of keeping their top free agents anyway.  It's possible that the next Dodgers owner, assuming there is one, could talk the Simi Valley product into a homecoming.
  • It may come as a surprise to some, but Heyman predicts that Andre Ethier will remain with the Dodgers beyond 2012.  GM Ned Colletti is believed to want to lock up Ethier along with Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw.  Even though the Dodgers' situation is probably too messy for anything to get done right away, they have to act fast to keep the 29-year-old. 
  • You can also expect the Dodgers to work something out with Kemp, who is also a free agent after 2012. 
  • Of the 33 players that Heyman profiles, he expects most to get new deals done with their respective clubs.  Some of the players that we may see elsewhere: John Danks, Shin Soo-Choo, Jonathan Sanchez, Justin Morneau, Grady Sizemore, and Shaun Marcum.
  • TV magnate Burt Sugarman is one name believed to be in the mix among potential buyers of the Dodgers.  Investment banker Jason Reese and billionaire Ron Burkle are also in the mix.  Burkle is teaming with former Dodgers great Steve Garvey.

AL Central Notes: Sizemore, Martinez, White Sox

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Links from the AL Central, before the second-place Royals host the first-place Indians…

  • Indians center fielder Grady Sizemore, who has returned from microfracture knee surgery, tells Yahoo’s Jeff Passan that he feels healthy again. Passan explains that there’s no guarantee Sizemore will have the same explosiveness he had early in his career, even though he has recovered from the procedure.
  • The Tigers have called up Omir Santos from Triple-A, but have yet to announce a corresponding move, according to MLB.com's Jason Beck (on Twitter). The Tigers may have to cut someone if Victor Martinez doesn't need a DL stint.
  • Scot Gregor of the Daily Herald looks at the struggling White Sox and points out that Mark Teahen has likely improved his trade value a little with his strong start. That doesn't make up for Chicago's five-game losing streak, however.

Rosenthal On Twins, Cardinals, Sizemore

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With opening weekend in full swing, Ken Rosenthal has his first Full Count video of the season up over at FOX Sports. Let's check out the highlights….

  • The Twins' outfield is worth keeping an eye on, since Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are facing free agency after 2011 and many of the team's top prospects are outfielders. Rosenthal says it's "even possible" that the Twins could trade Denard Span, who is signed through 2014.
  • While Matt Holliday recovers from his appendectomy, the Cardinals are comfortable platooning Allen Craig and Jon Jay. Craig is "highly sought after" in trade talks, particularly by American League teams, according to Rosenthal. However, the Cards aren't inclined to move him.
  • Even if Grady Sizemore returns to form in the coming months, he's not likely to be dealt at the trade deadline. His 2012 club option becomes a player option if he's traded, so if they wanted to explore a deal, the Indians would probably do so next winter, after picking up the option.

Quick Hits: Diamondbacks, Guerrero, Marcum, Pence

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Football will dominate today's sports headlines, but ESPN.com's Jayson Stark tweets some good news for baseball fans – Super Sunday also represents the start of the last week without baseball until November! Here are today's links, as the Packers and Steelers prepare to square off in Texas….

Indians Notes: LaPorta, Sizemore, Rotation, Chisenhall

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Even on a day filled with football news, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer has a pair of Indians articles up filled with some information on what we can expect from the Tribe in 2011. Let's look at some highlights:

  • The upcoming season will play a large role in gauging the return that the Indians got from the C.C. Sabathia trade. Both Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley are expected to play full seasons as part of Cleveland's rebuilding efforts. LaPorta, who recently turned 26, is fully healthy unlike 2010 when he underwent two mid-season surgeries.
  • Both Grady Sizemore and Fausto Carmona could be traded if they perform well in the first half. Sizemore is more likely, given that he's only under Cleveland's control through 2012 (the $8.5MM club option on his deal becomes a player option if he's traded). Carmona is through 2014 through a series of club options.
  • The club is still interested in both Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Bonderman, though Hoynes says the Indians haven't changed their stance on Millwood's asking price; they don't want to invest $4MM-$5MM.
  • Lonnie Chisenhall will open the season at Triple-A Columbus no matter what, according to Hoynes. He has a chance to push some current big-leaguers eventually, as do Jason Kipnis, Jared Goedert, and Cord Phelps. Keith Law recently ranked Chisenhall as the game's 39th best prospect. Kipnis placed 56th.

Cafardo On Sizemore, Carmona, Delcarmen, Milledge

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Rocco Baldelli tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that, despite having to retire at age 29, he considers himself fortunate to have had as much time as he did in the majors. "I have no regrets," Baldelli said. "I played major league baseball. I got to the big leagues and I had some moments I'll never forget." Cafardo opens this week's column by wondering what might have been, had Baldelli stayed healthy throughout his career. The Globe writer also shares a handful of hot stove notes….

  • Although recent trade rumors involving Grady Sizemore and Fausto Carmona were quickly shot down, Cafardo says if both players are healthy and playing well this year, they could be "major trade deadline chips."
  • Four teams are in discussions with agent Jim Masteralexis, regarding client Manny Delcarmen. We heard earlier this month that the Rays had interest in the ex-Red Sox, so they're likely one of the four.
  • One executive told Cafardo that he's surprised Lastings Milledge is still available. While the exec's team doesn't need another outfielder, he argued that "you just don't give up" on a talent like Milledge.
  • Scott Schoeneweis, who hopes to play this season, is being considered by the Diamondbacks.
  • Friends of Pedro Martinez say the right-hander has yet to get pitching out of his system. Pedro will turn 40 later this year, and didn't pitch in the bigs in 2010, but he had success for the Phillies in 2009, compiling a 3.63 ERA, 7.5 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9 in nine starts.
  • Cafardo speculates that Boston could be a good fit for Jeremy Bonderman on a minor league deal.

Make Or Break Year: Grady Sizemore

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AQA10042302_Indians_At_Athletics It wasn't too long ago that Grady Sizemore was one of the best players on the planet. He hit .279/.380/.499 with 85 homers and 93 steals from 2006 through 2008, ranking third among all center fielders with a +22.5 UZR. Three All-Star Game appearances, three top-12 finishes in the MVP voting, and two Gold Gloves are fantastic accomplishments over a career. Sizemore did all that before he turned 27. 

It's clear that Grady and his ladies were well on their way to superstardom, but injuries started to get in the way. He battled a sore elbow early in the 2009 season, eventually hitting the disabled list for over three weeks with inflammation. With the Indians out of the race and his batting line sitting at a respectable but un-Grady-like .248/.343/.445 in early-September, Sizemore shut it down for the season and had surgery on both his elbow and abdomen.

Healthy at the outset of the 2010, Sizemore's season lasted all of 33 games. He hurt his knee sliding into a base in April then re-aggravated the injury the next month, playing his final game of the season on May 16th. Sizemore hit just .211/.271/.289, and had mirofracture surgery on his left knee in early-June. The six-to-nine month recovery time has him on track for Opening Day, and ESPN's Buster Olney reported last week that Grady has started hitting off a tee, the first wave of baseball activity he's performed since the surgery.

The Indians made waves by signing Sizemore to a six-year, $23.45MM contract back in 2006, then the largest contract (in terms of guaranteed money) ever given to a player with less than two years of service time. That contract expires at the end of the 2011 season, though the team will have to decide between a $9MM club option for 2012 or a $500K buyout.

That option looked like a no-brainer not too long ago, but it's been two full seasons since Sizemore was healthy enough to play more than 106 games, and it's been close to two calendar years since he was completely healthy and productive. We've heard that the Indians would love to trade their second highest paid player, but he's got to prove his health before the team can even think about getting fair value in return. 

Sizemore won't turn 29 until August, and a return to his MVP-caliber form will ensure that his option is picked up. If he doesn't rebound, he'll hit the open market with his stock at an all-time low. 

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Indians Rumors: Kotchman, Carmona, Sizemore

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On this date five years ago, the Indians sent Arthur Rhodes to the Phillies for Jason Michaels and traded Josh Bard, Coco Crisp, David Riske and a player to be named later to the Red Sox for Andy Marte, Guillermo Mota, Kelly Shoppach and cash. January 27th 2011 doesn't figure to be quite as eventful for the Tribe, but you never know. Here are some Indians links…

  • The Indians are interested in Casey Kotchman on a minor league deal, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link).
  • The Nationals reportedly inquired on Fausto Carmona and Grady Sizemore, but ESPN.com's Buster Olney and Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer both hear that the Nationals have not discussed such a trade with the Indians (Twitter links). Olney says the Nationals haven't called the Indians 'at all' about such a move.
  • The Indians are looking for bargains and would like to upgrade their rotation and infield, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter). The team inquired on Kevin Millwood earlier in the month.
  • MLB.com's Jordan Bastian reports that some free agent relievers were hesitant to join the Indians this offseason because the Tribe has a number of promising young relievers.

Nationals Interested In Carmona, Sizemore

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WEDNESDAY, 8:59pm: Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain-Dealer says "there's not much meat" to the rumor about Carmona and Sizemore potentially going to the Nationals. MLB.com's Bill Ladson says he's heard the same (Twitter links).

TUESDAY, 7:52pm: The Nationals have had "conversations" with the Indians about Fausto Carmona and Grady Sizemore, reports Phil Wood of MASNsports.com.  Another source tells Wood the Nats "are working on 'a number' of other trades," as well. 

Nats GM Mike Rizzo has been open about his frustration at not being able to acquire a top-flight starting pitcher this winter, but acquiring Tom Gorzelanny and adding Carmona would certainly ease that disappointment.  Washington could well have been one of the several teams that were interested in Carmona in December, but the Indians are in no hurry to trade the right-hander given that he's on an affordable, option-heavy contract through 2014.

Sizemore is set to earn $7.5MM this season and the Tribe have an $8.5MM option on him for 2012 (with a $500K buyout).  Cleveland would like to unload that contract, but after two injury-plagued years, Sizemore's trade value is at its lowest point.  If the Indians accepted a buy-low offer and then saw Sizemore regain his All-Star form elsewhere, that lack of maximum return for Sizemore would be a damaging move to the rebuilding Tribe.

From the Nationals' perspective, they clearly have money to spend and can afford a $7.5MM risk to see if Sizemore returns to form.  Carmona is obviously the safer and probably preferable option due to his team-friendly contract and the fact that he could post even better numbers in the NL.  The question is whether the Nats have the prospects that Cleveland would want for either player, since Washington's farm system isn't known to be very deep.

In other Nats news, Wood predicts Alberto Gonzalez may be designated for assignment to make room for the newly-signed Alex Cora.  Gonzalez, a utility infielder, posted a .578 OPS in 198 plate appearances with Washington last season.

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