Keith Law On Epstein, Sizemore, Votto, Ricciardi
ESPN's Keith Law gave his thoughts on a number of prospects during a chat with readers today, and also expounded on a few Major League items. The highlights…
- Cubs fans should be excited about Theo Epstein's "ability to turn the Cubs' baseball ops department into a process-oriented, professionally run organization. You can't run a baseball team the way they were run 20 or 30 years ago. It's a business now, one where smart decisions based on sound processes are necessary and innovation is increasingly critical."
- Law describes Brett Jackson (taken 31st overall by the Cubs in the 2009 amateur draft) as a "non-star prospect" and thinks he would be fair compensation for Epstein.
- Law doesn't think Grady Sizemore can remain healthy as an everyday center fielder. The Indians have a $9MM club option on Sizemore next season but will take their time in deciding on it, given that Sizemore just underwent knee surgery.
- Between Joey Votto and Yonder Alonso, Law would deal Alonso and "look to win" in the remaining two years that Votto is under Reds' control. Cincinnati GM Walt Jocketty recently shot down rumors that the Reds were listening to offers for the reigning NL MVP.
- Law hears from his sources that J.P. Ricciardi isn't currently on the Orioles' short list of general manager candidates, as was reported on Tuesday by Law's ESPN colleague Buster Olney. Law worked for the Blue Jays' front office from 2002-06 when Ricciardi was the team's general manager.
- The Mariners "might have the best rotation in baseball by 2013 or so."
- If given a choice of signing either Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols to a seven-year contract worth the same money, Law says he would choose the younger Fielder. "Pujols is the better player right now, but even at his listed age I worry about his durability and potential decline," Law says.
- Despite Alex Avila's breakout 2011 season, Law said he still prefers Matt Wieters as the better long-term player.
Quick Hits: Sizemore, Carmona, Pujols, Wilson, Nova
Wednesday night linkage..
- The Indians plan to take their time in deciding whether to pick up the options on Grady Sizemore and Fausto Carmona, writes MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. Sizemore, who underwent surgery on his right knee earlier this month, has a club option worth $9MM with a $500K buyout while Carmona's option is worth $7MM for next season.
- The Cardinals are hopeful that the good feelings from this postseason might carry over into the Albert Pujols negotiations this winter, tweets Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.
- Even though the Marlins are expected to spend this offseason, Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel (via Twitter) doesn't like their chances of landing Pujols or C.J. Wilson.
- If Yankees pitcher and former Rule 5 pick Ivan Nova can build off of an inspiring rookie season, he’ll be taking one of the rarest career paths in baseball history, writes Josh Goldman of Fangraphs.
Central Notes: Ventura, Ordonez, Sizemore, Epstein
If the Tigers win the ALCS, we could see the first all-Central World Series since St. Louis topped Detroit five years ago. Today's AL and NL Central links…
- The White Sox announced they'll introduce new manager Robin Ventura tomorrow at an 11am central time press conference. ESPNChicago's Doug Padilla reported today that Mark Parent will come aboard as Ventura's bench coach and Joe McEwing will serve as the third base coach. Jeff Manto is ahead of Tim Laker in terms of hitting coach candidates, Padilla reports.
- The Tigers' Magglio Ordonez re-fractured his ankle Saturday, reported MLB.com's Jason Beck. The right fielder will see specialists after returning to Detroit, tweets Tom Gage of the Detroit News. Ordonez, 38 in January, is eligible for free agency this winter.
- "It seems highly unlikely" that the Indians will exercise their $8.5MM club option on center fielder Grady Sizemore, opines MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. The Indians revealed Tuesday that Sizemore had a right knee arthroscopy but is expected to be ready for Spring Training. Should the 29-year-old reach free agency, I'd rank him around 30th on my top 50 list.
- A rival executive talked to ESPN's Buster Olney on Red Sox GM Theo Epstein and the Cubs: "If he met with the Cubs, what it means is that if he gets the offer he wants, he's gone [to Chicago]." Earlier today, however, SI's Jon Heyman wrote that most baseball insiders "believe it's more likely than not [Epstein will] remain in Boston, at least for now."
- Brewers reliever Francisco Rodriguez reflected on this summer's trade, telling Mike Puma of the New York Post, "I'm winning, and [the Mets] needed pretty much to get rid of me." K-Rod told Puma he holds no grudge toward the Mets.
- Of the 11 Pirates players eligible for arbitration this winter, only Joel Hanrahan, Jeff Karstens, Charlie Morton, and Evan Meek are absolutely certain to be tendered contracts, writes MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch. She notes that "if the Pirates do not intend to tender a contract to someone on the list, there is a good chance that player will be removed in November so that the Pirates can open up roster spots to protect players from being taken in the Rule 5 Draft." Click here for MLBTR's projected salaries for the Pirates' arbitration group.
- The chances of lefty Paul Maholm returning to the Pirates next year are less than 50-50, in the opinion of Langosch. I'd say Maholm ranks toward the back end of the top ten free agent starters this winter.
- Check out my offseason outlooks for the Cubs and Astros.
Olney On Grady Sizemore, Rays
Grady Sizemore underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee this week and though the Indians say they expect him to be ready for spring training 2012, there’s no guarantee that they’ll exercise his $9MM option. Buster Olney weighed in on Sizemore and the Rays in this morning’s blog entry at ESPN.com. Here are the details:
- If the Indians let Sizemore walk, many teams would be interested in his services. Specifically, Olney suggests the 29-year-old center fielder would draw interest from teams like the Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies.
- At times, talent evaluators saw Sizemore’s old explosiveness this year and it wouldn’t be surprising if he became a star player again.
- He’s not likely to be back with the Indians in 2013, Olney writes.
- Olney outlines the options for Rays owner Stuart Sternberg, who expressed frustration with the team’s season-long attendance issues despite its on-field success. He could sell the franchise, continue with a low payroll and low expectations or look to move the team to Tampa or another city. "The St. Petersburg baseball market is dead," Olney writes.
Quick Hits: Orioles, Sizemore, Sabathia, Rays
On this date ten years ago, 42-year-old Tim Raines and his son, 22-year-old Tim Raines Jr., played outfield for the Orioles, becoming the second father-son duo to play in the same outfield (the Griffeys were the first). Here are some recent updates from around MLB…
- Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has not yet decided on his future role with Baltimore, according to MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli. It’s expected that MacPhail will step down and that the Orioles will find a replacement.
- The Indians announced that Grady Sizemore underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. The Indians say they expect the 29-year-old to be ready for spring training 2012, but it’s hard to be overly optimistic - Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer points out that it’s Sizemore’s fifth surgery in three years. GM Chris Antonetti told Hoynes that he isn’t going to speculate on Sizemore’s $9MM option for 2012.
- FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron doesn’t deny that some batters have advantages over some pitchers, but he doesn’t endorse relying on past batter/pitcher confrontations to predict future outcomes.
- Dave Waldstein of the New York Times explains that there's a small chance C.C. Sabathia threw his last pitch for the Yankees last night, since the left-hander can opt out of his contract after the season. When MLBTR readers voted earlier today, they were divided on Sabathia's offseason earning power.
- Rays owner Stuart Sternberg told Jim Caple of ESPN.com that he's frustrated that winning hasn't led to improved attendance in Tampa Bay. The Rays' attendance figures dropped by 15% this year and Sternberg says it's "untenable as a model going forward."
Make Or Break Year: What Happened?
Before the season, MLBTR writers identified 13 players who were set for 'make or break' years. These players had experienced ups and downs in their respective careers and were positioned to re-establish themselves as difference makers at the Major League level and set themselves up for success in free agency.
We checked in on the players at the quarter pole of the campaign and again at its midway point. Let's do it again now that the regular season's over (all links go to the MLBTR posts):
Players whose seasons met or exceeded preseason expectations:
- Aramis Ramirez - Ramirez had a strong season, hitting 26 homers and posting a .306/.361/.510 line as the Cubs' everyday third baseman.
- Edwin Jackson - Jackson, a free agent after the season, completed 199 2/3 innings with a 3.79 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 43.8% ground ball rate.
- Bobby Abreu - Though Abreu's power dropped off, he managed a .353 on-base percentage and 21 steals. His 2012 option vested in July, so he should be back in Los Angeles for a fourth season with the Angels.
- Carlos Beltran - A highly-coveted midsummer trade target, Beltran spent time on the DL with a strained right hand and wrist in August. His season line was .300/.385/.525, so agent Scott Boras will likely receive multiyear offers for the switch-hitter.
- Jeff Francis - Francis pitched 183 innings with a 4.82 ERA, 4.5 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. He wasn't spectacular, but he made his starts, quieting questions about the condition of his left shoulder.
Players who had disappointing seasons due to injury or poor performance:
- Scott Kazmir - Kazmir spent time on the DL, made one appearance for the Angels and posted a 17.02 ERA with more walks than strikeouts at Triple-A before getting released. The 2011 season could not have gone much worse for the former first rounder.
- Nate McLouth - McLouth's .228/.344/.333 line is better than it was last year and features a respectable on-base percentage, but he missed the second half with oblique and abdominal injuries.
- Jonathan Broxton - It was a lost season for Broxton, who recently had surgery to remove loose bodies in his right elbow and is looking at an incentive-based one-year deal in free agency.
- Grady Sizemore - Sizemore got off to a hot start, but finished the season with a .224/.285/.422 line. Knee and abdominal issues limited him to 71 games and there's no guarantee that the Indians will pick up his $9MM option for 2012.
- Joel Zumaya - Zumaya didn't pitch in a Major League game after undergoing elbow surgery in March.
- Ryan Doumit - A sprained left ankle limited the 30-year-old to 77 games. When healthy, he posted a .303/.353/.477 line, but it doesn't appear likely that the Pirates will pick up his $7.25MM option.
- Casey Blake - Blake hit .252/.342/.371 in 239 plate appearances and spent considerable time on the DL with a cervical strain. He had surgery in September and the Dodgers will decline his $6MM option for 2012.
- Matt Capps - Capps saw his strikeout rate (4.7 K/9), ground ball rate (41.6%), average fastball velocity (92.9 mph) and innings total (65 2/3) drop this year, while his ERA rose nearly two runs to 4.25. At least he stayed healthy, unlike many on this list.
Ohio Notes: Thome, Sizemore, Phillips, Cordero
The Indians (80-82) edged out the Reds (79-83) for state bragging rights this season and the Tribe also went 5-1 against Cincinnati in interleague play. As a result, the Cleveland notes lead off the latest edition of news from the Buckeye State…
- "I would say that the percentage is higher of me coming back next year than not," Jim Thome tells MLB.com's Zack Meisel. The veteran slugger is known to be considering retirement.
- GM Chris Antonetti says the Indians' payroll will be "significantly" higher next year, tweets MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. This doesn't necessarily mean Cleveland will be making big moves, however, as the Tribe have a number of players due healthy arbitration raises this winter.
- Appearing on a Starting Blocks TV video, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer predicts that Grady Sizemore will return to the Indians next season. The Tribe have a $9MM club option on Sizemore for 2012, or the team could buy him out for $500K. Hoynes also writes that the Indians will have to make a quick decision about their center fielder given that Sizemore had his knee examined on Monday and teams have until just three days after the last game of the World Series to decide on player options.
- Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer believes the Tribe should let Sizemore leave since he's too much of an injury risk. Pluto suggets Cleveland should decline Sizemore's option and see if he would agree to return for something akin to a $3MM deal with lots of incentives.
- In case you missed it, manager Manny Acta's option for the 2013 season was picked up earlier today by the Tribe.
- Tim Belcher has stepped down as the Indians' pitching coach and will take a job in the team's baseball operations department. MLB.com's Jordan Bastian reports that "the Indians have known for months" that Belcher was thinking of resigning.
- The Reds should "play the odds" and cut ties with both Brandon Phillips and Francisco Cordero, opines John Erardi of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Erardi thinks the Reds must spend more efficiently and not sign two veteran players to big-money contracts. He also suggests seeing what Aroldis Chapman could bring on the trade market.
- John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer thinks the Reds will again pursue an front-of-the-rotation pitcher this winter.
- "This is going to be a strange offseason, I think," Bronson Arroyo says to MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. "I don't think anyone in the locker room here has any idea what moves the front office wants to make."
Quick Hits: Crisp, Patton, Yankees, Indians
On this date in 1983, Steve Carlton of the Phillies won the 300th game of his career. The Phillies don't have any 300 game winners on their staff at this point, but it won't be surprising if one or two of their pitchers join Carlton in Cooperstown one day. Here are some links for Friday…
- Coco Crisp told Joe Stiglich of the Contra Costa Times that he's looking for a winning team, a location he likes and a good "financial situation" when he decides where to sign this offseason (link via the Boston Herald). The 31-year-old California native says he enjoys playing in Oakland and believes the A's have a chance to win in 2012.
- The Orioles placed Troy Patton on the restricted list yesterday, according to MLB.com's Transactions Page. The left-hander left the team for a court-appointed orientation class that's related to his offseason DUI arrest, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. He should re-join the team in Detroit today.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman told Bob Klapisch of the Record that he's "comfortable but not expectant" of a new contract after the season, when his current deal with the Yankees expires. Klapisch says Cashman has earned another contract.
- Bud Shaw of the Cleveland Plain Dealer made the case for bringing Grady Sizemore and Fausto Carmona to the Indians next year. Though there are arguments in favor of each player, it's not easy to get excited about "the prospect of continued uncertainty."
Indians Notes: Sizemore, Carmona, Thome, Cabrera
The Indians may have had their playoff hopes dashed by the Tigers, but with a strong performance over the next week and a half, they'll still finish the season with a winning record. Cleveland sends Justin Masterson to the hill against the Twins today, looking to finish off a sweep and get back to .500. Before they get underway at Target Field, let's check out a few Tribe-related links….
- The Indians figure to pursue starting rotation depth and a right-handed bat this winter, according to Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Pluto also expects the club to exercise Grady Sizemore's 2012 option, though he's not as sure about Fausto Carmona's. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes said earlier this month that Carmona's option "requires pause, but is worth exercising," and also predicted Sizemore's option will be exercised.
- Within Pluto's piece, he notes that the Tribe should end up drawing more than 1.8 million fans this season, well above their projected figure of 1.3 million. The bump in attendance will help accommodate a payroll increase for 2012.
- The Indians have sent $20K to the Twins to complete the Jim Thome trade, tweets MLB.com's Jordan Bastian.
- Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer fields reader questions in his latest mailbag, discussing Casey Kotchman, Orlando Cabrera, and September callups, among other topics.
- The Star-Ledger's Mike Vorkunov looks at the Indians and a few other teams whose playoff hopes fell by the wayside in the second half. He briefly explains what went wrong and why there's hope next year for each club.
Central Notes: Indians, La Russa, Verlander
A few links to pass along regarding clubs in the Central divisions …
- The Indians are facing an offseason of difficult decisions, writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. With basically the same roster, the Tribe's payroll would jump from $49MM in 2011 to roughly $70MM next season, explains Hoynes. Several key players like Shin-Soo Choo, Justin Masterson, Chris Perez and Asdrubal Cabrera will be eligible for arbitration, and the Indians own options on Grady Sizemore ($9MM) and Fausto Carmona ($7MM).
- Cardinals manager Tony La Russa dismissed a rumor that he will manage the Cubs next season, writes Kevin Roberts of MLB.com. A report surfaced earlier this week that the Cubs would hire La Russa and Reds GM Walt Jocketty (formerly the Cards' GM) in an effort to lure impending free agent Albert Pujols this offseason. This one seems to be falling apart, as Reds owner Bob Castellini has said Jocketty will be back with the Reds in 2012.
- The AL MVP Award is now Tigers righty Justin Verlander's to lose, opines Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports (Twitter link).