Royals Notes: Lorenzen, Marsh, Harvey, McArthur
Michael Lorenzen will return from the 15-day injured list tomorrow. The Royals list him as the probable starter for the second game of their series in Washington. Kansas City will need to make a corresponding active roster move.
It’s a crucial start as K.C. fights for a playoff spot. The Royals squeaked out a 1-0 win in extra innings over the Nationals tonight. That kept them in front of the Tigers for the AL’s second Wild Card spot via the tiebreaker. They’re two games up on the Twins and 2.5 clear of the Mariners in the race.
Lorenzen has been down for more than a month because of a left hamstring strain. Acquired from the Rangers at the deadline, the righty had a sparkling 1.85 earned run average in 24 1/3 innings over his first five starts. That excellent run prevention was in spite of mediocre strikeout (17%) and walk (10%) rates. Lorenzen’s results have generally outpaced his peripherals for consecutive seasons. He carries a 3.43 ERA over 126 frames between Texas and K.C. this year.
Alec Marsh stepped back into the rotation while Lorenzen was on the shelf. He pitched fairly well, turning in a 4.50 ERA while striking out more than 32% of opponents over four starts. Marsh is moving into the bullpen to open a rotation spot, tweets Jaylon Thompson of the K.C. Star. The 26-year-old righty has turned in a 4.65 ERA with a solid 23% strikeout rate over 25 appearances (24 starts) on the year. He had an excellent start to the season before a terrible July led the Royals to option him to Triple-A for the three weeks preceding Lorenzen’s injury.
While Lorenzen’s return is a boost to the pitching staff, skipper Matt Quatraro provided disheartening updates on a pair of relievers this afternoon. The Royals have officially ruled out Hunter Harvey and James McArthur for the season, Quatraro said (X link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). Harvey has been out since the middle of August with a back injury, while the Royals lost McArthur to an elbow sprain last week.
Quatraro said the Royals were sending Harvey for a second opinion, which at least raises the question of whether he’ll need surgery. Injuries have been a recurring problem for the 29-year-old righty. Harvey underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect and has had extended absences during his MLB career for forearm, lat and elbow injuries.
Harvey can be a high-leverage reliever at his best, as he showed with the Nationals between 2023-24. He fired 60 2/3 innings of 2.82 ERA ball last season. This season’s 4.20 mark across 45 frames wasn’t as impressive, but Harvey punched out more than 26% of opponents behind a 13.4% swinging strike rate. The Royals viewed him as a late-game weapon and sent third base prospect Cayden Wallace plus the 39th pick in this summer’s draft to acquire him. They’ve gotten essentially nothing out of that deal, as Harvey allowed four runs over 5 2/3 innings before going on the shelf.
Kansas City controls Harvey for one more year via arbitration. The Royals would tender him a contract if they expect him to be back early in 2025, but a long-term injury could obviously change the calculus. He’d be due a small raise on this year’s $2.325MM sum.
McArthur operated as Kansas City’s closer for a time. He picked up 18 saves but also blew seven leads. McArthur’s heavy reliance on ground-balls without many whiffs plays better in the middle innings than it does in the ninth. His year concludes with a 4.92 ERA through 56 2/3 frames. The Royals are using deadline acquisition Lucas Erceg as their closer while turning high-leverage innings to converted starter Kris Bubic and left-hander Sam Long.
Royals Place Chris Stratton On 15-Day Injured List
The Royals placed right-hander Chris Stratton on the 15-day injured list due to a right forearm flexor strain. Left-hander Angel Zerpa was called up from Triple-A Omaha in the corresponding move.
Only 16 days remain in the regular season, so between the calendar and the usually serious nature nature of forearm and flexor-related injuries, it seems likely that Stratton’s 2024 campaign is over. If the strain is mild, Stratton could conceivably return to action if the Royals make a deep playoff run, but the larger concern at this point could be whether or not the 34-year-old could be facing a surgical procedure that could threaten some (or all) of his 2025 season.
Stratton has allowed five runs over his last two appearances and two innings of work, but even if his injury factored into these rough outings, the righty has already been struggling in his first season in Kansas City. Stratton has a 5.55 ERA over 58 1/3 innings, along with a 17.1% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate that are both far below the league average. The K% and BB% rates are both career lows for Stratton over a full MLB season, while his ERA is only a touch better than the 5.57 ERA he posted with the Angels and Pirates in 2019.
The right-hander bounced back from that tough 2019 campaign with solid results and a full-time move to relief pitching over the next four years, posting a 3.91 ERA in 255 1/3 frames with the Pirates, Cardinals, and Rangers. That includes a 3.92 ERA and a career-best 7.4% walk rate in 82 2/3 innings with St. Louis and Texas last year, and four more innings in the playoffs as Stratton won a World Series ring on the Rangers’ championship squad.
That performance provided a platform for Stratton to land a two-year, $8MM free agent deal with the Royals this past winter. The deal is technically a one-year contract with a player option for 2025, as Stratton can choose to take either a $500K buyout or remain in the last year of the deal for a $4.5MM salary next season. Between his subpar performance and now this injury, Stratton seems like a lock to pass on his opt-out clause.
While Stratton wasn’t delivering much in the way of results, his absence will leave K.C. short of an innings-eating bullpen arm. Zerpa’s 4.40 ERA over 47 innings could provide a bit of a boost, but Stratton joins Will Smith (back spasms) and Hunter Harvey (mid-back tightness) on the list of injured Royals relievers. In Harvey’s case, MLB.com’s Anne Rogers writes that Harvey has started throwing but the team isn’t yet sure when or if the right-hander might able to return to action.
Royals Place Hunter Harvey On 15-Day Injured List
The Royals announced that right-hander Hunter Harvey has been placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to August 7) due to mid-back tightness. Right-hander Carlos Hernandez was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.
The back problem has kept Harvey from pitching since August 4, so he’ll get the maximum three days of backdated IL placement time factored into a longer stint on the sidelines. Clearly Harvey and the Royals were hopeful that some rest would allow for Harvey to heal without the need for a trip to the injured list, but today’s news continues that has been a shaky beginning to the reliever’s tenure in Kansas City.
Acquired from the Nationals just under a month ago, K.C. paid a hefty price to land the righty, giving up both notable infield prospect Cayden Wallace as well as the 39th overall pick in the 2024 draft (the Royals’ Competitive Balance Round selection, which are the only types of draft picks that can be traded). The Royals were hoping that Harvey could help solidify their bullpen, but he has thus far posted a 6.35 ERA in 5 2/3 innings over four appearances, with four walks and five strikeouts.
These numbers are starkly different from the 4.20 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, and 6.3% walk rate Harvey posted in 45 innings for Washington prior to the trade. The small sample size of Harvey’s time with the Royals must be considered, of course, plus some extra misfortune in the form of a .389 BABIP since he went from D.C. to K.C. However, while most secondary metrics indicated that Harvey pitched better with the Nats than his 4.20 ERA indicated, he is near the bottom of the league with a 48.3% hard-hit ball rate.
It could be that all of that hard contact was bound to catch up with Harvey eventually, and it surely hasn’t helped that he might’ve been nursing a bad back during some of this time. Harvey has a long injury history mostly related to arm problems rather than back issues, so hopefully a 15-day absence will fully correct the problem.
Harvey joins a few other Royals relievers on the IL, as John Schreiber and Dan Altavilla are expected back roughly around the end of August and the team is hopeful Josh Taylor can return at some point in September. The injuries haven’t helped the Royals’ efforts to both improve their bullpen results or their broader goal of reaching the playoffs, and with Harvey out, it puts more pressure on James McArthur and new arrival Lucas Erceg to hold the fort in high-leverage situations.
MLBTR Podcast: Top Trade Candidates, Hunter Harvey To KC And The Current State Of The Rays And Mets
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Trade Candidates For The 2024 Trade Deadline (2:20)
- The Royals acquire Hunter Harvey from the Nationals (5:45)
- The Mets acquire Phil Maton from the Rays (14:55)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- The Cubs are such an interesting case right now. They’re not performing well, but they’re also not built to sell. They’ve got a lot of players slated to return from the IL in the next few weeks and they’ve got an easy strength of schedule after the deadline. They’ve got a strong farm system and some positional surpluses that they could deal from, but they’re up against the tax that they’ve self-imposed as a hard cap. They’re not too far from playoff contention but they’ve got a bunch of teams ahead of them. What should they do? (27:15)
- With the trade deadline approaching fast and the Tigers’ recent play, could they be potential buyers if they continue this trend up to the deadline? (34:25)
- If the White Sox trade Luis Robert Jr., Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech, just how improved could they expect to be? (40:40)
Check out our past episodes!
- Brewers’ Pitching Needs, Marlins Rumors And The Nats Prepare To Sell – listen here
- The Rays Could Deal Starters, Garrett Crochet, James Wood And Free Agent Power Rankings – listen here
- Injured Trade Candidates, The Cristopher Sánchez Extension And Blue Jays’ Woes – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
AL Notes: Soroka, Harvey, McCullers, Pederson
Michael Soroka only three pitches in today’s outing before leaving with what the White Sox announced as right shoulder soreness. More will be known once Soroka undergoes testing, though shoulder inflammation brought an early end to both his 2022 and 2023 seasons, and he had other shoulder issues in his first two Major League seasons in 2018-19. Beyond these shoulder problems, Soroka missed almost the entirety of the 2020-22 seasons due to a pair of torn Achilles tendons, but he returned to the Show to pitch 32 1/3 innings of 6.40 ERA ball with the Braves last year.
Atlanta then shipped Soroka and four other players to Chicago in the Aaron Bummer trade last November, and Soroka’s first season with the Sox has been a struggle, as he has a 5.25 ERA over 72 innings and he lost his rotation job in May. Soroka’s 3.49 ERA as a reliever is a big step up from his 6.39 ERA as a starter, though this latest shoulder injury could bring another unwelcome wrinkle to his career. It could also impact Chicago’s trade deadline plans, as an impending free agent like Soroka is an obvious trade candidate, and a healthy multi-inning reliever would appeal to several teams.
More from around the American League as we head into the All-Star break…
- The Royals started their deadline moves with a bang on Saturday, acquiring Hunter Harvey from the Nationals for third base prospect Cayden Wallace and Kansas City’s Competitive Balance Round A pick in this year’s draft. (Washington used the 39th overall pick on Cal catcher Caleb Lomavita.) “What we came to realize is if you’re going to acquire a quality relief pitcher with years of control, it’s not going to be a comfortable trade to make. You’re going to have to give up something to get something,” Royals general manager J.J. Picollo told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters. K.C. was known to be looking for bullpen help, and Harvey brings “great depth” to the relief corps, though Picollo said the team was “happy with” James McArthur‘s work as closer. “The depth was the focus for us and having more options at the back end of the game,” Picollo said.
- Astros GM Dana Brown provided an update on Lance McCullers Jr. during a pregame radio appearance today (hat tip to Chandler Rome of The Athletic). McCullers’ rehab from flexor surgery was halted earlier this week due to some soreness in his right arm, and Brown said “we just have to let time heal and we can’t push him.” A return by September to work as a reliever is a possibility, Brown said, which is itself notable since McCullers has started 127 of his 130 career big league games. A variety of injuries have cost McCullers the entirety of both the 2019 and 2023 seasons, and limited him to 265 innings over the 2020-22 campaigns. The exact nature of McCullers’ latest issue isn’t known, but Brown somewhat ominously said that the righty had gotten “his second opinion” about the setback.
- The Blue Jays were known to be pushing to sign Joc Pederson last winter, before Pederson landed with the Diamondbacks on a one-year deal worth $12.5MM in guaranteed money. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith recently spoke with Pederson about his offseason talks with Toronto, and Pederson said he had a FaceTime conversation with GM Ross Atkins and manager John Schneider that seemed to go well, though negotiations didn’t progress much further. “They just I guess didn’t want me as bad as some other teams and weren’t able to really put together an offer when it was time for me to make a decision….From the conversations we had on the phone and how interested they were in adding a left-handed bat, their actions didn’t match their words, I guess you could say,” Pederson said. “They said everything went really well and then didn’t want to offer what other teams did.” The veteran slugger didn’t have any displeasure with how things worked out, and even left the door open to potentially play for the Jays in the future. Pederson is having an excellent season as a righty-mashing DH in Arizona, hitting .273/.374/.498 with 13 homers over 277 plate appearances with the D’Backs.
Royals Acquire Hunter Harvey From Nationals
The Royals have bolstered their bullpen with the acquisition of right-hander Hunter Harvey, as the Nationals announced that Harvey will head to K.C. in exchange for third baseman Cayden Wallace and the Royals’ Competitive Balance Round A pick (39th overall) in the 2024 draft. The Royals also announced the move, as well as the news that right-hander Nick Anderson has been designated for assignment to create roster space for Harvey.
Today’s 5-0 loss to the Red Sox dropped the Royals to a 52-44 record, and a game back of Boston for the third and final AL wild card slot. Playing .542 baseball is already an impressive step forward for a team that lost 106 games in 2023, yet Kansas City clearly has eyes on bouncing back from some recent struggles. The Royals started the season at a blistering 39-26 pace, but have since stumbled to a 13-18 mark in their last 31 games, and relief pitching has been a major reason behind this slide.
The K.C. bullpen ranks in the bottom third of baseball in most major categories, including 22nd in bullpen ERA (4.30). James McArthur has converted 17 of 21 save chances but has been somewhat shaky, and the Royals’ relief corps is lacking in both velocity and strikeout ability. Recent reports suggested that Kansas City was considering the bullpen as a top need heading into the trade deadline, even ahead of the Royals’ also-pressing need for outfield upgrades.
Harvey and his 97.8mph fastball provide some immediate high-leverage zip in the Royals’ pen, and Harvey also has above-average strikeout and walk rates over his 45 innings this season out of Washington’s bullpen. While he has a 4.20 ERA, Harvey’s SIERA is 2.99, as a .325 BABIP has contributed to make Harvey’s bottom-line results an insufficient reflection of his quality pitching.
Selected 22nd overall by the Orioles in the 2013 draft, Harvey drew top-100 prospect attention before a variety of injuries threatened to halt his career before it ever got off the ground. He had a 3.42 ERA over 23 2/3 innings and 26 appearances for Baltimore during the 2019-21 seasons, but the Giants claimed him off waivers in November 2021, and Harvey then moved to Washington on another waiver claim just prior to the start of the 2022 campaign.
This time with the Nationals allowed Harvey to establish himself as a solid MLB-caliber arm, even if he has flown under the radar during the team’s rebuild. Harvey has a 3.17 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate, and 6.4% walk rate in 145 innings for D.C., working mostly as a setup man but with 10 saves to his ledger in 2023. Hard contact is a big red flag in Harvey’s arsenal, but he has done a passably good job of keeping this hard contact from translating into home runs. Moving to spacious Kauffman Stadium could further help the 29-year-old Harvey in this regard.
Harvey is earning a $2.35MM salary this season in his second-last year of arbitration eligibility, so the Royals also control him through the end of the 2025 campaign. This extra year of control made Harvey a particularly interesting player to watch heading into the July 30 deadline, and both Harvey and Nats closer Kyle Finnegan (also controlled through 2025) cracked the top 15 of MLBTR’s recent listing of the top 50 trade candidates. Since teams generally have to pay a bit extra to complete deals further in advance of the deadline, that factor plus Harvey’s extra year of control and perhaps the Royals’ eagerness to quickly correct their bullpen struggles combined to give Washington a pretty nice return.
The rebuilding Nationals stayed within striking distance of the NL wild card race, but today’s trade leaves no doubt that the Nats will remain on their expected path as sellers heading into the deadline. This doesn’t mean that Washington might not seek out some players that could help them be competitive as early as 2025, and Wallace could potentially fit that category, as he is currently in his second season of Double-A ball.
A second-round pick for the Royals in the 2022 draft, Wallace is hitting .282/.350/.427 over 140 plate appearances for Double-A Northwest Arkansas this season, but he has been slowed by both an oblique strain and an ongoing IL stint for a broken rib. These injuries have slowed his development, but MLB Pipeline still ranks Wallace as the second-best prospect in the Kansas City farm system, and Baseball America ranked him fifth in their preseason ranking of Royals minor leaguers. Both scouting reports consider him a good defensive player with the ability to remain at third base due to a strong throwing arm, and Wallace has a good approach at the plate and a solid swing. He has power potential moreso than obvious power at the moment, so Pipeline and BA view Wallace as a gap hitter with some upside as he develops.
Trading a “third baseman of the future” candidate like Wallace serves as an endorsement of the Royals’ faith in Maikel Garcia in at least the short term, even if Kansas City might now look for some help at the hot corner down the road — perhaps as soon as tomorrow’s draft. As noted by MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman, the Nationals have now given themselves lot of third base depth for the future, with Wallace joining Brady House (ranked by Pipeline as the 44th-best prospect in all of baseball) and Yohandy Morales in the minor league ranks. This could be a potential surplus position for the Nationals in the coming years, if they return to contention and start moving their own internal prospects for more win-now veterans.
The Competitive Balance Round selections are the only types of draft picks that can be traded, and as such are quietly some of the most valued trade chips in all of baseball. Any team can trade for CBR picks, but since smaller-market and lower-revenue teams are the only clubs eligible for these bonus selections in the first place, trades involving the picks are relatively rare, given how adding talent through the draft is of such particular value for the game’s lesser spenders. Still, today’s trade marks the third CBR pick of the 2024 draft to change hands — the Brewers acquired the 34th overall pick from the Orioles as part of the Corbin Burnes trade, while the White Sox landed the 68th overall pick (in CBR Round B) as part of the deal that sent Gregory Santos to the Mariners.
The Royals select sixth overall in tomorrow’s draft, and now won’t pick again until their second-round choice (41st overall). The Nationals now have three selections within the first 44 picks, with their newly-acquired CBR selection sandwiched between their first- and second-round slots.
Anderson came to the Royals in a trade with the Braves last November, as Kansas City had interest in seeing if the former Rays bullpen ace could regain his form after three injury-marred seasons. Over 34 2/3 innings for the Royals this season, Anderson had a 4.15 ERA and not much in the way of secondary metrics, as he posted a 10.1% walk rate and 18.1% strikeout rate.
Anderson is earning $1.575MM this season, and he is arb-controlled through 2025, which could add some attraction for any club interested in adding bullpen depth via waiver claim. Anderson has now passed the five-year threshold for MLB service time due to being on the Royals’ active roster all season, and would thus retain all of his 2024 salary if he clears waivers and becomes a free agent.
Nationals Preparing To Be Deadline Sellers
The Nationals have been on the periphery of the postseason picture for much of the season but are preparing to approach the trade deadline as a seller, per Ken Rosenthal, Katie Woo and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Washington will be open to offers both on potential free agents and players signed/controlled for only one additional season, per the report. The Nats’ group of impending free agents include outfielder Jesse Winker, lefty Patrick Corbin, righty reliever Dylan Floro, struggling slugger Joey Gallo and the currently injured Trevor Williams. Of even more interest will be outfielder Lane Thomas, setup man Hunter Harvey and closer Kyle Finnegan, each of whom is controlled through the 2025 season via arbitration.
The vibe in D.C. is high at the moment following the debut of top-ranked prospect James Wood and the All-Star selection of shortstop CJ Abrams. But Washington has dropped 11 of its past 15 games to fall seven under .500. At 16.5 games back in the NL East, there’s no hope of surging back to the front of the division, and in the Wild Card chase, the Nats are 5.5 games back of the third spot with six teams to pass in order to get into the fray.
The Nationals are already three years into a rebuilding process that kicked off in 2021 with trades of Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber (among many others) and continued into the summer of 2022 with the deadline blockbuster that shipped Juan Soto to San Diego in exchange for a package of five young players headlined by Abrams, Wood and current staff leader MacKenzie Gore. Selling off some short-term pieces at this year’s deadline isn’t a sign that said plan has faltered or a setback necessarily; for much of the season, the Nats appeared ahead of schedule but are now settling into the type of position most expected them to occupy heading into the 2024 campaign.
Among Washington’s slate of rental players, Winker stands as the most productive healthy option. He’s back in vintage form after a pair of seasons ruined by knee and neck injuries that both required surgery in the 2022-23 offseason. In 337 trips to the plate, the former Reds, Brewers and Mariners outfielder is hitting .268/.382/.436 with ten home runs and a career-high 12 steals. Winker’s 13.6% walk rate is more than five percentage points ahead of the league average, and he’s striking out at a manageable 22.3% clip.
Winker has long had platoon issues, but the Nats have given him 80 plate appearances against southpaws this season and he’s held his own, hitting .250/.344/.363. It should be noted that his small-sample production against lefties is aided by a bulky .358 average on balls in play and comes in spite of a huge 29% strikeout rate (10 points higher than his mark against righties). Winker probably can’t be expected to continue his output against lefties, but he’s punishing righties just as he always has when healthy: .275/.397/.465 with nine of his 10 home runs and six of his 17 doubles. Winker signed a minor league deal with a $2MM base salary, making him an ultra-affordable option for any team seeking a quality left-handed bat to add to its DH/outfield mix.
Floro, 33, is in the midst of a nice rebound season. He’s on a one-year, $2.25MM deal and has produced 43 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball. His 20.5% strikeout rate is a couple percentage points shy of average, but his 6.4% walk rate is a couple points better than par. Floro sports a strong 50.4% grounder rate as well. However, he’s yet to allow even one home run this season, and it’s not sustainable for any pitcher to see every single one of his fly-balls stay in the park. Metrics like SIERA (3.50) and xFIP (3.45), which normalize homer-to-flyball rate, view Floro as a solid arm but not the dominant force his raw ERA might suggest. He should still draw plenty of interest as an affordable veteran with some track record.
Corbin’s $35MM salary is going to nullify any trade interest unless the Nats are willing to pay down almost the entire sum. The first season of his six-year, $140MM contract with the Nats went beautifully, as Corbin helped lead a deep rotation and stepped up as a key postseason arm en route to Washington’s Cinderella World Series run. He’s posted a 5.60 ERA since, including a 5.49 mark in 100 frames this year.
That said, the veteran has been pitching well of late. Corbin sports a 4.53 ERA dating back to Memorial Day weekend and has delivered a 3.81 ERA in 28 1/3 frames over his past five starts. A team just looking for some veteran innings in the five spot could look at Corbin as a cheap solution if the Nats eat most or all of the remaining salary.
If healthy, Williams might stand as the clearest and most coveted rental piece the Nats have to offer. He made 11 starts, and though he was averaging just five frames per appearances, Williams logged a pristine 2.22 ERA with a solid 21% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. As with Floro, he’s been extremely fortunate with home runs (just two in 56 2/3 frames), and a solid but unspectacular K-BB profile points to some ERA regression if that home run trend doesn’t continue. But Williams is in the second season of a two-year, $13MM contract and would be an affordable rotation option. He’s been out since early June with a strained muscle in his forearm.
Also on the injured list is Gallo, who was struggling at career-worst levels prior to a hamstring strain. He’s hitting .164/.285/.321 with a glaring 43% strikeout rate and five homers in 165 plate appearances. Between that line and Gallo’s injury, it’s hard to envision any trade value even if he’s healthy enough to return before July 30. He’s more a DFA candidate than a trade candidate.
Looking to the Nationals’ more controllable pieces, Thomas and the bullpen duo of Finnegan and Harvey will draw wide-reaching interest. A deal for Thomas could be difficult to line up, depending on how the Nats price him. At last year’s deadline, Washington was valuing Thomas as an everyday outfielder, whereas many other clubs were viewing him more as a potential platoon piece.
That perception from other clubs won’t be different in 2024. Thomas has never hit righties much but is slashing a dismal .208/.262/.343 against them in 2024. Conversely, he’s always hit well against southpaws and is even better than his career line in 2024, hitting .338/.407/.563. Thomas is an absolute menace to southpaw pitchers, and he’s perhaps deceptively fast. Statcast ranks him in the 94th percentile of MLB players in average sprint speed, and Thomas has already swiped 21 bags — though he’s also been caught seven times. He’s making $5.45MM this season and will be owed one more raise in arbitration this winter before hitting free agency post-2025.
Both Finnegan and Harvey are on track for free agency in the 2025-26 offseason as well. Finnegan has saved 23 games and posted a tidy 2.17 ERA in 37 1/3 frames. He’s averaged a hefty 97.4 mph on his heater while recording a 26.5% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 42.7% ground-ball rate. After a rough start in terms of his command, Finnegan has reined in the walks, yielding only a 5.8% rate over his past 32 innings.
Harvey was arguably even more appealing for much of the season, though a recent rough patch could have altered that. His $2.325MM salary is less than half Finnegan’s $5.1MM mark, he throws even harder, and his strikeout/walk/ground-ball rates were the better of the two for the bulk of the current campaign.
Some recent struggles have ballooned Harvey’s ERA to 4.40 — more than two runs higher than the 2.08 mark he carried into the month of June. He’s been tagged for 14 runs in his past 12 2/3 innings. In that time, he’s walked 9.1% of his opponents (more than double his rate over the first two months) and been tagged for a grisly 2.13 homers per nine frames. For a pitcher with a lengthy injury history — Harvey still has just 166 2/3 career innings despite debuting in 2019 — that could be a particular concern among bullpen-needy clubs. But the affordable salary, extra year of control, 98.1 mph average heater and K-BB profile should all generate interest.
One other name to consider is journeyman righty Derek Law, who’s posted a 3.35 ERA in 53 2/3 innings of relief already and is controllable through 2025. Law has fanned 21.2% of opponents against a 6.2% walk rate but has been wildly inconsistent dating back to his 2016 debut campaign. He’s earning $1.5MM this season and could be a sensible middle-innings arm for a team looking at low-cost means of deepening the ‘pen.
Nats Notes: Deadline, Winker, Hassell, Wood, Crews
The Nationals have received trade interest in veterans Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Lane Thomas but haven’t considered dealing any veteran pieces just yet, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Washington, even with a sub-.500 record (35-36), is tied with the Padres for the final Wild Card spot in the National League at the moment and has not yet made a determination on how to approach this year’s trade deadline, Morosi adds.
It’s sensible for teams to inquire with the Nats, who entered the season as a playoff long-shot after spending the past two years in a rebuilding pattern. The Nats have outplayed expectations thanks to myriad factors (e.g. breakouts from MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams; a stronger-than-expected debut for lefty Mitchell Parker; a big step forward by CJ Abrams; a rebound by Jesse Winker). Those positive developments, plus widespread mediocrity in the National League, have thrust the Nationals into postseason conversations in mid-June. Williams’ recent flexor strain is a big damper on the team’s solid showing this year, but it’s only natural that GM Mike Rizzo and his staff aren’t yet ready to concede that they’ll be deadline sellers.
The next six weeks will be pivotal for the Nats. Holding the status quo or even playing winning ball between now and July 30 could push the Nationals to function as buyers. They may not be keen on dealing prospects for short-term rentals in a season like this, but targeting some names with multiple years of club control remaining feels plausible. On the other side of the coin, if the Nats fall a few games back in the standings and/or incur further injury problems of note, then listening on short-term veterans would be far likelier.
All three of the names listed by Morosi are controlled only through the 2025 season. Finnegan and Harvey would both draw widespread interest among contenders, given the perennial demand for bullpen help among playoff hopefuls. Harvey, in particular, has been dominant with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate en route to a 2.75 ERA. Finnegan leads the team with 20 saves and a terrific 1.78 ERA, though he’s benefited hugely from a microscopic .157 BABIP and a sky-high 94.7% strand rate — neither of which feels sustainable long-term.
Thomas drew interest at last summer’s trade deadline, but he’s likely someone the Nats value more than many of the teams seeking to acquire him. Washington reportedly priced him like an everyday player on last summer’s trade market — which is also how they use him — but Thomas carries enormous platoon splits and could be seen by other clubs as a player best deployed in a timeshare. He’s batting .327/.390/.588 against lefties this season (166 wRC+) but has an awful .196/.256/.330 output against righties (65 wRC+). His career splits aren’t quite that dramatic but are quite stark: .305/.364/.524 versus left-handers (141 wRC+) compared to .223/.290/.392 versus right-handers (86 wRC+).
The next few weeks will be pivotal for Rizzo and his lieutenants as they chart a course for this year’s deadline planning. If the Nats fall several games out of the race, all three of the names listed by Morosi could feasibly hit the market, and they likely wouldn’t be alone. Third baseman Nick Senzel and reliever Derek Law are also only controlled through 2025 as well. Veterans Dylan Floro and Eddie Rosario are free agents at the end of the current season, as are the aforementioned Williams and Winker.
Speaking of Winker, he had an injury scare over the weekend when he felt knee pain after taking a big turn at first base, slamming on the brakes and (unsuccessfully) diving back to the bag. He exited the game two innings later. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports that Winker underwent an MRI that thankfully came back clean. He’s listed as day-to-day for now.
Winker, 30, isn’t hitting for much power this season but is drawing walks at his typically lofty rate (13.4%) and has made significantly better contact than he did over the past two seasons in a pair of down years with the Mariners and Brewers. He’s batting .265/.378/.390 with six homers and ten doubles through 268 plate appearances. Like Thomas, he’s better utilized in a platoon setting but has been an everyday player in Washington. Winker, to his credit, has a roughly league-average .239/.345/.338 slash in 84 plate appearances against fellow lefties, but he’s a career .210/.325/.338 hitter (89 wRC+) in left-on-left situations, compared to .279/.383/.467 (130 wRC+) against righties.
Eventual trades of Winker, Rosario and/or Thomas could open the door for any number of Nationals farmhands at the big league level. One near-MLB-ready option, Robert Hassell III, doesn’t seem as though he’ll be an option anytime soon, however. The Nats placed Hassell on the minor league injured list last week, and TalkNats.com reports that he’s dealing with another wrist injury and that the team plans to proceed cautiously. Hassell has had multiple wrist injuries in the past, including a broken hamate bone that necessitated surgery.
One of the most notable prospects acquired in the Nationals’ blockbuster trade of Juan Soto to the Padres, Hassell opened the season with a .278/.369/.369 slash in 215 plate appearances at the Double-A level. Those numbers don’t jump out, but they’re about 14% better than average in his currently pitcher-friendly environment, by measure of wRC+. They’re also a sizable step forward from the .225/.316/.324 batting line recorded by Hassell at the same minor league level last year (476 plate appearances).
Both Hassell and uber-prospect James Wood are on the minor league injured list at the moment — the latter due to a hamstring strain. Wood, in particular, could be an option to make his big league debut later this summer, with Andrew Golden of The Washington Post relaying on X today that Wood could return to game action this week. But Hassell could force his way into that conversation as well if he’s cleared to return sooner than later and continues to show improvement over last season. His prospect stock has taken a notable hit since the time of that swap, but he’s maintained strong plate discipline (11.6% walk rate) and cut his strikeout rate from last year’s alarming 31.9% to a far more palatable 21.4% in 2024.
Dylan Crews will also be in the mix, as he’s being promoted to Triple-A, per @PROducerIOTB on X. That’s come on the heels of Crews hitting .274/.343/.446 in Double-A this year while stealing 15 bases.
Nationals Hope To Add Pitching This Offseason
Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo spoke this week about the upcoming offseason, with Andrew Golden of The Washington Post relaying some the details. Rizzo stated that the club is looking to bolster both its starting and relief pitching, as well as mentioning a middle-of-the-order bat.
That the club is open to additions all over the roster is hardly surprising since they have been aggressively rebuilding for a while now. The past few years have seen Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Juan Soto and many others flipped for prospects, leading to the Nats finishing last in the National League East three years running. The 2023 club won 71 games, a jump of 16 from the dismal results of 2022, but there were also some less-encouraging signs. The club had a run differential of -145, second-worst in the National League, ahead of just the Rockies. They outpaced their expected win-loss record of 66-96 thanks to some help from a record of 28-21 in one-run games and a 6-2 mark in extra innings.
On the pitching side, the club had a collective earned run average of 5.02, a mark that topped just the Royals, Athletics and Rockies. The starting staff and the relief corps were equally ineffective, as both groups had matching ERAs at that 5.02 figure.
Stephen Strasburg is still on the roster, although he won’t be a factor going forward. It’s been known for some time that his battle with thoracic outlet syndrome isn’t going to allow him to compete at the major league level anymore. He and the Nats were discussing a retirement deal last year, even though his contract runs through 2026, but the club walked away and he was activated from the IL earlier week. Both Rizzo and Scott Boras, Strasburg’s agent, admit that the righty’s pitching days are done. “Medically, it’s going to be difficult to see him pitching again at the big league level,” Rizzo said, per Golden. “We understand where he’s at physically. We have understood it since last year, so that hasn’t changed.” While coming to some sort of agreement about his retirement would allow the club to free up a roster spot, that doesn’t seem imminent. “The roster spot is important,” Rizzo says. “But there’s certain rules and protocols that have to be met within the CBA to conclude these types of things when [players] are under contract.” He didn’t clarify which parts of the CBA are currently standing in the way of Strasburg’s retirement.
Without Strasburg, the rotation currently consists of Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams. Corbin hasn’t been terribly effective lately, with his strikeout rate having dropped in each of the past four years. But he will likely continue to hold a place based on his contract. He’s set to make $35MM next year, the final year of his deal. Since he’s a fairly reliable innings eater, the Nats will likely give him the ball every fifth day as they manage the workloads of their younger pitchers.
Gray had a 3.91 ERA last year but may have been lucky to do so. His 20.5% strikeout rate, 11.5% walk rate and 37.8% ground ball rate were all worse than league average. An 80.4% strand rate likely helped to keep some runs off the board, which is why he had a 4.93 FIP and 5.08 SIERA. Gore had better peripherals but allowed more home runs, leading to a 4.42 ERA. Both of them are still fairly young, Gray going into his age-26 campaign and Gore his age-25, and neither has reached arbitration yet. They will be in the rotation again next year as the Nats hope they take a step forward in 2024.
Williams signed a two-year deal with the Nats last offseason but the first season of that contract didn’t go especially well as he posted a 5.55 ERA over 30 starts. Similar to Corbin, he could serve an innings-eating role but the club is likely less committed to Williams. He’s only making $7MM in 2024 so his deal would be easier to walk away from. Irvin had a 4.61 ERA in 2023 with fairly uninspiring peripherals.
The Nats also have Joan Adon, Thaddeus Ward, Jackson Rutledge and Roddery Muñoz on the roster, though each of those guys is likely stuck in a depth role until they have better results. Given the current options, it’s fair to see how Rizzo could find room for an external addition or two.
It’s unclear who the Nats would target but they kept things fairly modest last year. Apart from the two-year contract for Williams, they stuck to one-year deals for bounceback candidates like Jeimer Candelario and Dominic Smith. If they set similar targets this winter, they could perhaps look to pitchers like Wade Miley, Martín Pérez, Kyle Gibson, Frankie Montas, Luis Severino and others.
On the bullpen side of things, there are plenty of arms available they could look to add, but it also sounds like subtraction is possible. Rizzo says other clubs have been asking about righties Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s not a surprise to hear that the two are drawing interest, both because of their strong results and because they also were in trade rumors at the deadline a few months back.
Both players stayed and Finnegan finished the year with a 3.76 ERA, racking up 28 saves in the process. Harvey’s ERA was almost a full run better at 2.82, striking out 28.5% of batters while notching 10 saves and 19 holds. The Nats don’t need to move either, since they are both controllable via arbitration through 2025. However, performance from relievers can be volatile and an injury can happen at any time. The Nats could open their next competitive window in the next two years but there would be some sense to flipping these guys for players that could be more meaningful pieces of that window.
As for the middle-of-the-order bat Rizzo referenced, there are plenty of options available, depending on how aggressive they are willing to be. First baseman Dominic Smith and third baseman Carter Kieboom are both non-tender candidates. If Smith were out of the picture, Joey Meneses could take on some extra first base time, or the club could look outside. In the outfield, Lane Thomas is coming off a solid season but did most of his damage against lefties. Stone Garrett also had a good year but finished it on the injured list due to a fractured leg. Victor Robles is coming off another frustrating season.
If the Nats wanted to make a splash, they could target players like Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Rhys Hoskins, but other options include Tommy Pham, Jason Heyward, Adam Duvall and Joc Pederson.
Nationals “More Than Likely” To Place Hunter Harvey On 15-Day Injured List
Hunter Harvey felt soreness in his right triceps following his outing on Saturday, and is set to undergo an MRI today to fully access any damage. Nationals manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that “more than likely,” Harvey will be headed to the 15-day injured list since “I’d rather be very careful, very cautious with him.” X-rays were “clean” on Harvey’s arm yesterday, so that it at least some positive news that the right-hander has avoided another serious injury.
However, the Nats’ caution is certainly understandable given the potential seriousness of any triceps or elbow-related injury, as well as Harvey’s own personal injury history. Most prominently, Harvey underwent a Tommy John surgery in 2016, and his career has been repeatedly stalled by various health issues. After Washington claimed him off waivers from the Giants in March 2022, Harvey made four appearances for the Nats before missing close to three months with a right pronator strain.
When Harvey has been able to pitch, he has been quite effective over his two seasons with the Nationals. Since the start of the 2022 campaign, the righty has a 2.82 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, and a 7.6% walk rate over 79 2/3 relief innings. Harvey has also racked up nine saves since taking over the closer’s job from Kyle Finnegan, further enhancing both his value to the Nats and his potential worth as a deadline trade chip.
Because of the stop-and-start nature of Harvey’s injury-hampered career, he is only in his first year of arbitration eligibility, so Washington still holds team control over his services through the 2025 season. This means that Harvey wasn’t a surefire candidate to be moved at the deadline, but with the Nationals still in rebuild mode, there was certainly an argument to be made for D.C. to sell high on Harvey. Unfortunately, it now doesn’t seem that Harvey will even be back from the IL before the August 1 deadline, unless a clean MRI and no lingering soreness results in a minimum 15-day absence. Even then, it’s hard to imagine that a trade suitor would be willing to give up any sort of decent return without some clear evidence that Harvey is healthy.