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Ian Desmond

Padres, Ian Desmond Having Ongoing Discussions

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TODAY: Discussions between the two sides are “very preliminary,” according to Jon Heyman (via Twitter). While there is an expectation that the Pads will have talks this week with Desmond’s camp, Heyman says the purpose will be “to see if there’s anything to talk about.”

YESTERDAY: The Padres and free agent shortstop Ian Desmond are having ongoing discussions, according to major league sources who spoke with Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  Even though that match would make a lot of sense, no deal appears to be imminent between Desmond and San Diego, Morosi adds.

Morosi notes that Desmond hit 88 home runs over the past four seasons and in that same span the Padres scored the second-fewest runs in the majors.  Meanwhile, their 2015 shortstop Alexi Amarista had the worst OPS (.544) of any National League player with at least 300 at-bats last season.  Financials and, perhaps, their timeline for contention aside, the Padres sound like the perfect landing spot for Desmond.

Desmond picked up three straight Silver Slugger awards from 2012 through 2014, and owns a .264/.317/.443 since he began his breakout in 2012. While that line was down overall in 2015, his .307 BABIP did fall shy of his career .322 mark and he showed more life at the plate at times later in the season.  The 30-year-old’s calling card is his ability to deliver power from a middle infield position, but his reps have also been highlighting his defensive ability when meeting with teams.  The Padres would slot Desmond in as their starting shortstop without hesitation, but Desmond appears to be open to playing other positions in an effort to broaden his market.

Desmond declined his qualifying offer from the Nationals back in November, but San Diego’s top pick (8th overall) is protected.  The team also stands to add two compensatory picks if and when Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy land elsewhere.  At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Desmond would land a five-year, $80MM deal.

Heyman On Cespedes, Parra, Davis

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There could be more great star free agents still available as we head into the New Year than ever before, in the estimation of CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman. The question now is – where will they land?  Here’s the latest from Heyman:

  • Angels owner Arte Moreno has indicated that he’s not going to make a major free agent splash between now and Opening Day, but Heyman hears that the Halos have been in contact with Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton and perhaps Alex Gordon as well.  It’s not clear how serious they are about signing one of the three, however.
  • Gerardo Parra is said to have “seven or eight” teams in on him and the Rockies are in “serious” pursuit.  Colorado has been considering trades involving Carlos Gonzalez and their other outfielders, so a Parra signing could be a part of a serious outfield overhaul for them.  Parra slashed .291/.328/.452 in 2015 and he boasts a strong reputation as a defensive outfielder, though his fielding statistics took a big step backward last season.  The Royals are also known to have interest.
  • When asked about free agent slugger Chris Davis, one person connected to the Astros said the player is “not in our plans.”  Davis would be a strong fit for Houston, in theory, but he is out of their price range.  The 29-year-old Davis is the top power bat on the open market, as he has led the Majors in homers over the past three seasons.
  • When approached, the Yankees asked the Astros for Lance McCullers Jr. in exchange for Andrew Miller, and Houston quickly rebuffed that attempt.  The Yankees are seeking a No. 1 pitcher in order to part with Miller, so it seems unlikely that he’ll go anywhere.
  • Word is that new Yankees reliever Aroldis Chapman is unlikely to serve a lengthy suspension for his alleged domestic violence incident.  Heyman reasons that the Bombers wouldn’t have made the deal if they felt that Chapman was in store for a long ban.
  • The Padres still need a shortstop but one person with Padres connections wondered whether an investment of  “$60MM to $70MM” (his estimate) made sense for them given that they are not expected to contend this year. However, Heyman notes that president Mike Dee and GM A.J. Preller are aggressive and they might not want to pass up on the chance to ink a player like Desmond at a sensible number.  Heyman also IDs the Rockies and White Sox as dark horse teams for Desmond.
  • The Cardinals were another club that downplayed the possibility of a major move, but GM John Mozeliak went out and signed Mike Leake after publicly stating that he wasn’t going to make any “dynamic” moves.  Could they have another significant move in store?  Heyman has heard buzz that the Cards may also be looking again at a big bat at first or in the outfield.
  • When asked about the possibility of Cespedes, one Nationals-connected person said, “Probably not, at least not at the moment.”  That doesn’t make a signing likely by any means, but it also doesn’t rule out a pursuit.
  • There are still “about six to seven teams involved” when it comes to Cespedes, Heyman writes.
  • The Dodgers are still looking around after signing Scott Kazmir, so they are not out on Japanese star Kenta Maeda.  The Yankees, meanwhile, can be crossed off the list as they are not interested.  Maeda, 28 in April, is widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in Japan. He just wrapped up a season in which he pitched to a 2.09 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 across 206 1/3 innings, marking his sixth consecutive season with an earned run average of 2.60 or better.
  • Marlins president president David Samson contends that owner Jeffrey Loria still has “no interest” in selling the club.

NL Notes: Dews, Nationals, Desmond, Baez, Reds

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The Braves organization suffered a difficult loss over the weekend, as long-time coach, advisor, and instructor Bobby Dews passed away at 76 years of age. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman explains how deeply embedded he was in the team’s fabric, even as he spent less time around the ballclub in recent years. We join all those around the league in tipping our cap to Dews and offering our condolences to his family and friends.

A few notes from the National League …

  • Following the Nationals’ reported agreement with Stephen Drew on a one-year deal, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post breaks down what the club’s bench could look like. As Janes notes, the addition of Drew will give first-year Nationals manager Dusty Baker four left-handed bats on the bench (Jose Lobaton, Clint Robinson and Matt den Dekker being the others, as things stand). His versatility, as well as the versatility of fellow newcomer Daniel Murphy (who can also handle third base, first base and, in a pinch, left field) gives Baker plenty of options to mix and match. A significant addition may or may not be coming, Janes writes, noting that the pursuit of top free agents such as Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist at least indicates that the club has money to spend. However, even if the team doesn’t land an additional center field option, the much-needed addition of some left-handed options in recent weeks has brightened the 2016 outlook.
  • Former Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond has long been rumored to be dabbling in the idea of signing as a Zobrist-esque super-utility player, and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney suggests the Giants could be a fit for him in such a role. Desmond could be the regular left fielder, even see time in center, and function as a reserve or injury replacement in the infield, Olney reasons.
  • Speaking of converting infielders to the outfield grass, Cubs youngster Javier Baez has seen time in center field in the Puerto Rican winter league, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat noted recently. It doesn’t seem that the organization is looking to press him into regular duty there, at least at present, but would at least like to have the option of deploying him in the outfield on occasion.
  • The Reds’ two Rule 5 picks have a solid chance of sticking with the club, C. Trent Rosecrans writes for Baseball America. Outfielder Jake Cave (from the Yankees) makes for a good fit because he hits from the left side, assistant GM Nick Krall tells Rosecrans. And Krall adds that southpaw Chris O’Grady (via the Angels) has shown an ability to retire batters on both sides of the box, with good command helping to make up for average stuff.

AL Central Notes: Alexei, White Sox, Indians, Nathan

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The White Sox haven’t closed the door on a return for longtime shortstop Alexei Ramirez, writes Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670thescore.com. Levine’s belief at this time is that most of the remaining budget will be spent on an outfield upgrade, but he opines that Ramirez’s strong second half — .277/.325/.432 following the All-Star break — and questions about Tyler Saladino’s bat would make a two-year deal with Ramirez a wise investment. The Sox could still pay Ramirez less than the $10MM he’d have earned via his previously declined club option, and Ramirez would then serve as a bridge to top prospect Tim Anderson, who could be ready in 2017. Levine writes that Ian Desmond is the only other free agent shortstop that Chicago “may also look into,” but Desmond’s career OBP doesn’t fit the team’s needs, and a long-term deal for him would clash with Anderson’s timeline to the Majors. Additionally, Levine hears that the Padres, too, have interest in adding Ramirez on a short-term deal, suggesting that there will be some competition if the Sox do pursue a reunion.

Here’s more from the AL Central….

  • We’ve already heard quite a bit on the White Sox and their outfield options today, and MLB.com’s Scott Merkin suggests that smoke is coming from a legitimate fire. (Twitter links.) He writes that he anticipates that Chicago would pursue an alternative outfield addition if it’s unable to land Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, or Alex Gordon.
  • While it’s still unclear whether they’ll make an aggressive move on the open market, the White Sox are rather uniquely well-situated to do so, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello explains. Most importantly, argues Petriello, the team has a high-quality core and other affordable pieces that make near-term competitiveness the optimal strategy. While there are several major areas still in need of improvement, that actually increases the marginal return on a well-targeted signing. And then there’s the fact that Chicago snuck into the top ten in next year’s draft and thus needs only to sacrifice a compensation pick (tied to the qualifying offer rejected by Jeff Samardzija) in order to add a QO-bound free agent. That certainly increases the team’s flexibility to act opportunistically in a position player market that is still loaded with quality options.
  • Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer recently fielded a number of reader inquiries, sharing some insight into the Indians’ signings of Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli as well as the team’s plans at third base and trade scenarios involving starting pitchers. Hoynes believes that Cleveland will utilize a combination of Giovanny Urshela and Jose Ramirez at third base, and, in response to a question about a potential swap of Yasiel Puig for a starting pitcher, says the Indians want more than one piece in return for any deal sending away Danny Salazar or Carlos Carrasco. Hoynes doesn’t specifically mention whether a 1-for-1 deal involving Puig and one of those two prized young starters has been discussed, though he does note that he doesn’t believe Cleveland has ever had any real intention of trading a starting pitcher.
  • Reliever Joe Nathan — a long-time member of the Twins who pitched most recently for the Tigers — is hoping he’ll be ready for game action by May or June, he said in an MLB Network appearance today (via Jon Morosi, on Twitter). The 41-year-old had a disappointing run in Detroit, to say the least, but had some outstanding seasons before that and would still make for an interesting bounceback candidate.

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Top-10 Free Agent To Sign?

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Of the top 10 entries on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, half are already off the market.  David Price, Jason Heyward, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto have all signed new contracts, though there’s obviously still lots of top-tier talent still available, particularly on the position player side.  Indeed, the five remaining top-10 players are all everyday players — three left fielders, a shortstop and a first baseman.  There’s also been a notable lack of clarity about each player’s market (compounded by the fact that several of the same teams are interested in these same names), leaving some question about exactly who might come off the board next.  Here are the candidates, in the order of their ranking on MLBTR’s list…

Justin Upton: There have been surprisingly few solid rumors about Upton’s market, as the Angels and Orioles have both at least spoken with Upton’s representatives but there’s been little evidence of a serious pursuit.  He carries a high projected price tag (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes thinks Upton will get a seven-year, $147MM deal) and he’ll cost his new team a draft pick as qualifying offer compensation, though Upton’s main problem could simply be the glut of other quality outfielders on the free agent and trade markets.  That said, it’s hard to believe Upton won’t eventually wind up with a lucrative deal given the number of potential suitors that could use a big outfield bat.

Chris Davis: The Orioles, Davis’ former team, made a $150MM offer to the slugger that has since been taken off the table.  The Cardinals, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been speculatively linked to Davis but Baltimore is the only club known to be firmly pursuing him.  If Davis and agent Scott Boras are really looking for an eight-year, $200MM offer, however, it’s hard to see any team taking the plunge at that price, despite Boras’ track record of scoring higher-than-expected contracts for his clients.

Yoenis Cespedes: Upton and Cespedes share many of the same issues clouding their market, though Cespedes is two years older but can be signed without draft pick compensation.  (Cespedes, in fact, is the only player of these five who doesn’t have the qualifying offer hanging over his free agency.)  The Orioles and Angels have also been lightly linked to Cespedes, with the Tigers, Royals and Giants also being involved.  The White Sox have also been mentioned as a possible suitor for Cespedes or Upton, as they have a left field vacancy.

Alex Gordon: Though Gordon is four and two years older, respectively, than Upton and Cespedes, he’s been getting a lot more interest from a variety of teams — the Cardinals, Astros, Royals, Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Cubs, Orioles and Tigers have all been linked to Gordon at one time or another this winter.  At least a few of those teams, however, can probably be eliminated from contention due to other moves; the Cubs signed Heyward and Colby Rasmus accepted Houston’s qualifying offer, for instance.  Dierkes projected a five-year, $105MM deal for Gordon, so it’s not surprising that teams are exploring their options before deciding to give up a draft pick and give a nine-figure deal to a 32-year-old.

Ian Desmond: Whereas the other four names on this list had good-to-excellent walk years, Desmond headed into free agency burdened by a poor 2015 season (.233/.290/.384 in 641 PA, 83 wRC+, -3.7 UZR/150).  It’s made for a slow market for Desmond, as teams with shortstop needs like the Padres and Mets have shown only marginal interest.  What may help Desmond, however, is that he may not be limited to shortstop-needy teams, as his agents have been pushing him as a multi-position player capable of handling the outfield.  The strategy seems to be working to some extent, as multiple teams are considering Desmond not just at short or the outfield but also at second and third.

With all these factors in mind, who will be the next member of MLBTR’s Top 10 to sign a new contract?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here)

Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Kazmir, Dee Gordon, Clippard, Holliday, Padres, Astros

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There are a host of interesting notes in the latest column from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Here are some of the highlights:

  • While the Royals are still interested in free agent starters Yovani Gallardo and Scott Kazmir, as has previously been reported, the club may be most intrigued by Wei-Yin Chen, per Heyman. Kansas City would have to go well beyond its usual spending levels to add the southpaw, but Heyman writes that the club has newfound budget “flexibility” in the midst of its renaissance. Chen, though, is represented by Scott Boras, with whom the Royals have a strong relationship. (Kendrys Morales, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Rios and Franklin Morales are among the current or recent Royals to be Boras clients.)
  • Kazmir already has multiple three-year offers with guarantees in the range of $12MM to $13MM annually, per the report, with teams like the Athletics, Orioles, and Dodgers said to be involved. It seems like the first legitimate four-year offer could land Kazmir, Heyman adds. Of course, it’s unclear if the A’s will still be in the hunt if and when their reported one-year deal with righty Henderson Alvarez is finalized.
  • Meanwhile, the Royals are still pursuing Alex Gordon, but Heyman reports that the team’s initial four-year offer was not met with a very promising response from Gordon’s camp. It’s been surprisingly quiet on the Gordon front for much of the offseason, although with Jason Heyward off the board, it’s easy to imagine the market for him and fellow corner outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton picking up quickly.
  • The Royals are holding extension discussions with backstop Salvador Perez, says Heyman, and there’s interest from team and player in reaching “something equitable.” But K.C. has all the leverage, of course, given its already lengthy and cheap control rights over the sturdy young catcher. Heyman adds that Perez’s representatives have raised the extensions of players like Troy Tulowitzki, Evan Longoria, and Ryan Braun in talks, with the Royals not favorably disposed to those concepts. (An observation: those deals certainly don’t seem all that relevant from where I sit. Perez is an excellent player, but hasn’t reached the heights of those stars, and his current contract is far cheaper than the ones Longoria and Braun turned into new deals. Also, as a heavily-worked, large-framed catcher, there are questions about how wise it would be to make a long-term investment in Perez.)
  • The Marlins have continued their extension talks with Dee Gordon, and Heyman says that Miami has put a five-year deal on the table. But Gordon and his reps are looking for seven seasons in an extension. The talks are moving slowly, but still moving, per Heyman.
  • While the Mets do have legitimate interest in Tyler Clippard, they only want him with a one-year guarantee, per Heyman. Clippard is looking for a two-year deal he adds. It certainly seems that the veteran’s market is lagging the rest of the top-end set-up men who hit free agency this year. That could be due to a combination of his heavy recent workload and sub-par peripherals last year, but Clippard should still find a significant contract given his lengthy track record and the high dollars we’ve seen given to inferior arms.
  • Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday has been working out at first base, with the veteran looking to extend his career by adding defensive versatility. While that’s been done at Holliday’s initiative, Heyman wonders whether the hypothetical possibility of a move could keep St. Louis involved in the hunt for Gordon.
  • The Padres seem unlikely to put together a big offer for Ian Desmond. That would certainly be bad news for the free agent, whose market has yet to develop, as San Diego seems like one of the best fits. The Pads are not getting a lot of interest in James Shields at present and have put a high price on Tyson Ross, per the report. Meanwhile, the club is considering a move for veteran reliever Fernando Rodney.
  • The Astros aren’t done with their bullpen and remain in the market for relievers as well as a corner bat, Heyman writes. Houston non-tendered Chris Carter, and A.J. Reed probably won’t be ready to begin the season, so there does indeed appear to be room for someone capable of taking some at-bats at first base (although Jon Singleton could be given another look there as well).
  • We’ve heard chatter that the Orioles and Rockies have had some talks regarding outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, and Heyman says that Colorado asked for young righty Kevin Gausman in a deal. That was, unsurprisingly, a non-starter for Baltimore. The O’s, meanwhile, tried to get Andre Ethier from the Dodgers last offseason, and Heyman wonders whether another such effort could take place this year as the club continues to hunt for another left-handed-hitting outfielder (per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, on Twitter).
  • The Indians had talks with free agent Austin Jackson before signing Rajai Davis, per Heyman. He adds that there are legitimate concerns that Michael Brantley will be out into June “or perhaps even later” after some undisclosed new shoulder “issue” arose this winter.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Teams Considering Ian Desmond As An Outfielder

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Some teams are considering the possibility of signing shortstop Ian Desmond and having him play outfield, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick writes (Twitter links). Desmond is also attracting interest as a second baseman and third baseman.

Theoretically, Desmond’s ability (or apparent ability — he hasn’t appeared in a game anywhere other than shortstop since 2010) could widen the field of teams interested in signing him, which is probably why it emerged last month that his representation was marketing his ability to play multiple positions. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted at the time, though, much of Desmond’s value at this point is tied to his ability to play a decent defensive shortstop, in spite of his high error totals. Desmond’s 2015 line (.233/.290/.384) would have been weak for an outfielder, but as a shortstop, Desmond was still able to accumulate 1.7 fWAR.

It might be, however, that Desmond’s apparent willingness and ability to move around the diamond might provide a team planning on signing him long-term with a way to hedge its bets. If Desmond is able to play the outfield and other defensive positions, he might be able to move from shortstop into a different role if his defense slips over the course of his next contract.

Mets Notes: Murphy, Niese, Walker, Cabrera

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The Mets were surprised by Ben Zobrist’s decision to spurn them for the Cubs, but that doesn’t mean they’re likely to re-sign Daniel Murphy as a backup plan, Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. Puma notes that the Mets would have interest in Murphy on a one- or two-year contract, but they expect him to get four years elsewhere. The Mets are also “lukewarm” on Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera. Ian Desmond is another possibility, with Wilmer Flores moving to second, but the Mets are wary about his defense. Puma notes that the Mets could just go with 21-year-old Dilson Herrera at second and focus on upgrading elsewhere. That option strikes me as a fairly good one — Herrera is young, but he’s hit brilliantly in the upper minors and certainly looks like he’ll be ready to start soon if he isn’t already. Here’s more on the Mets.

  • The Mets have listened to trade offers regarding lefty Jon Niese, Puma writes. If they were to deal Niese, they could use Rafael Montero as their fifth starter until Zack Wheeler is ready to return after having had Tommy John surgery in March.
  • The Mets are interested in Pirates second baseman Neil Walker, but aren’t optimistic they’ll be able to swing a deal, Puma tweets. Walker could conceivably take over at second base for the Mets in 2016, after which he’ll be a free agent.
  • The Mets met with Ben Zobrist’s representatives at Octagon yesterday, Adam Rubin of ESPN New York tweets, but the two sides actually talked about other Octagon players. That could mean anything, but via MLBTR’s Agency Database, Octagon clients who could be of interest to the Mets include Cabrera, Gerardo Parra, Fernando Rodney and Edward Mujica. Cabrera and Parra have both recently been connected to the Mets.

Free Agent Profile: Ian Desmond

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Ian Desmond is the best shortstop available on the open market, but he comes with plenty of risk.

Strengths/Pros

Delivering power from an up-the-middle defensive position is probably Desmond’s single standout trait. The 30-year-old has averaged 22 long balls annually since the start of his breakout 2012, and he’s done that consistently (ranging from 19 to 25) rather than relying on a single outlying season.

Desmond’s overall power production is equally strong, which has continued to be true despite a dip in 2015. Even in that down year, his .151 ISO landed right at league average and checked in at fourth among qualifying shortstops. Though Desmond began and ended the year with rough stretches, he managed to put up a .185 ISO over the second half owing to a blistering August that showed there’s still some juice in his bat.

Sep 11, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond (20) throws over to first base during the eighth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The Marlins won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

That fairly steady pop has made the 30-year-old a strong overall contributor on offense. In spite of a propensity for the strikeout, he’s also quietly raised his walk rate to near the league average. Desmond picked up three straight Silver Slugger awards from 2012 through 2014, and owns a .264/.317/.443 since he began his breakout in 2012. While that line was down overall in 2015, his .307 BABIP did fall shy of his career .322 mark and he showed more life at the plate at times later in the season.

On the defensive side of the equation, Desmond has rated as an approximately average shortstop — by measure of both Defensive Runs Saved and UZR — in the aggregate over the past three years. While he’s not nearly as smooth (or as valuable) with the glove as some of the league’s true magicians, Desmond’s powerful and aggressive approach to the position remains effective. He has excellent range and a cannon for an arm.

While he’s not a top stolen base threat — he’s probably a candidate for 15-to-20 swipes a year moving forward — Desmond is among the game’s most skilled baserunners. By measure of Fangraphs’ BsR statistic, he rated 11th in the game last year in total contributions on the basepaths and falls within the 25 most productive runners league-wide over the past three seasons combined.

It’s worth noting also that, while Desmond has had his ups and downs, his physical skills remain elite. For instance, MLB recently released an interesting list of true “five-tool” players, based on several StatCast measurables, which puts Desmond alongside some truly outstanding names.

On top of these direct inputs, Desmond contributes in more subtle ways, too. He’s widely credited for his accountability, hard work, and clubhouse presence. For but one example of the many pieces written on the veteran’s leadership, check out this article regarding his influence over young Nationals star Bryce Harper.

Weaknesses/Cons

While there’s a lot to commend Desmond, he undeniably comes with some serious questions. At the plate, the major issue is contact. Desmond’s strikeout rate took a jump before 2014 and has hovered just shy of the 30% mark since.

Plenty of players have thrived with that kind of swing-and-miss in their game, but it’s an increasing concern, especially given that it has coincided with a broader downturn. It’s hard to ignore the fact that Desmond is coming off of an 83 wRC+ campaign, or that he’s declined in overall batting production for three years in a row. Power, as noted above, is a notable strength but Desmond’s ISO has also fallen off, and any further erosion would seriously hamper his value.

I mentioned BABIP above, and that stat can be an indicator of luck. But Desmond has a high career mark because of hard contact and speed, and there are some indications that his 2015 dip wasn’t just the product of circumstance. Desmond lost about four percentage points in hard contact in 2015, even as his soft-contact rate jumped by an even greater amount. He’s hitting more infield flies and grounders than ever.

Desmond also showed a newfound susceptibility to same-handed pitching. In the past, Desmond had neutral platoon splits (2013-14) or was so good against both that it didn’t much matter (2012). But last year, his OPS against righties was over 100 points south of the damage he inflicted against lefties. To be fair, that’s not necessarily a huge problem so much as a possible erosion of an area that had been a strength.

There’s concern, too, on the defensive side. Despite his excellent tools at short, Desmond has always been error prone and probably always will be. That tendency was on full display early in 2015, drawing plenty of attention, and is something that a signing team will need to be prepared to experience. Desmond’s error tally has grown every year since 2012.

Despite the down year, Desmond received and turned down a qualifying offer from the Nationals. That means that his new team will need to part with a draft pick to sign him.

Personal

Desmond and his wife, Chelsea, have three children and live in their native Sarasota, Florida. Desmond is known for being active in the community and has done charity work relating to neurofibromatosis and the Nationals’ Urban Youth Academy initiative.

Though he never suited up in Montreal — the club moved to D.C. just one year after he was drafted — Desmond was the last player left from that earlier epoch. The mutual respect between Desmond and the only professional team he’s known is readily apparent; GM Mike Rizzo called him “the rock of the organization,” while Desmond said he’s “extremely proud” to have been a National.

Market

Once the internal valuations are made, free agency is a complicated game with many moving parts and outside influences. Some best-in-class players can avoid that, to an extent, because the market is willing to wait on their decision. But while Desmond is the premier shortstop available, that doesn’t seem to be the likely course for him.

Given all the complications surrounding his value, teams are likely to weigh a signing of Desmond along with other possibilities — especially since he’ll require draft pick forfeiture. There are some other viable shortstops on the market, including Asdrubal Cabrera and bounce-back veterans such as Alexei Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins. And, of course, the trade market is always a factor.

With several outstanding young shortstops ascending to the majors in recent years, the demand side of the equation isn’t terribly strong. The Padres may be the best fit on paper after clearing salary in the Craig Kimbrel trade, while the White Sox, Twins, and Mets also could be in the market at short. It’s still unclear, though, whether any of those clubs will want to spend top dollar on Desmond, particularly given that several have plausible shortstops of the future moving through their farms.

Otherwise, it’s not obvious where Desmond could land, though there are a few clubs that could make some theoretical sense in the right circumstances. The Braves, for instance, might be an under-the-radar possibility if they were to trade Erick Aybar and could get value in a deal. The Rockies would also be a surprise, but there’s at least some opening (however unlikely) given the uncertainty surrounding Jose Reyes. A return to the Nationals can’t be ruled out entirely, particularly if Desmond’s market collapses and he’s forced into a pillow contract.

Expected Contract

Comparable free agents are hard to come by. Jhonny Peralta got four years and $53MM coming off of a PED suspension. That seems somewhat on the light side for Desmond, but isn’t an implausible figure if demand never comes to fruition. Reyes scored $106MM over six seasons, but Desmond seems unlikely to warrant a sixth year at this stage. Indeed, if anything, the lack of numerous obvious suitors could hold him to a four-year deal. All said, though, there’s a wide range of plausible outcomes.

My best guess is that Desmond will find a fifth guaranteed year, but won’t get both that and a premium annual salary. Despite being a big fan of Desmond’s, personally, I find myself a bit bearish on his free agent outlook and will predict he lands a five-year, $70MM deal.

Market Notes: Soria, Utley, Desmond, Jones

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Free agent reliever Joakim Soria has long been rumored to be drawing interest from several of his former employers, and at least two of them are still in the hunt, per a tweet from Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. The current “front-runners” to land the righty, it seems, include the Royals and Rangers — but not the Tigers, who just dealt for Francisco Rodriguez. Interestingly, the other top pursuer is largely a newcomer to the chatter on Soria: the Giants rate as one of the three most likely landing spots, according to the report.

Here are a few more free agent notes:

  • Five or six clubs have expressed interest in signing Chase Utley as a “mostly everyday infielder,” agent Joel Wolfe tells Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News (Twitter link). The Dodgers are one of those teams, per the report (and as suggested previously). Utley would probably be best served as a platoon option at this point, though he’d presumably see plenty of action if he gets most of the time against right-handed pitching.
  • The representatives of shortstop Ian Desmond are highlighting his defensive versatility to prospective clubs, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets. That’s a bit surprising to hear, given that much of Desmond’s value is tied to his ability to play short, where he rates as a solid defender despite being prone to committing errors. DiComo notes that Desmond has played outfield previously, which is true — but only barely. Desmond has appeared in the outfield in exactly four games as a professional: twice with the Nats, once in Triple-A, and once in the Dominican Winter League. Indeed, he’s only ever played eight other games at any position other than short, with all of those coming in the way of minor league appearances at second. None of that is to say that Desmond can’t play elsewhere on the diamond. After all, he is an excellent athlete. And perhaps the idea of eventually moving to the grass would make the back end of his deal somewhat more palatable.
  • Veteran outfielder Andruw Jones is looking for a chance with a big league club and will retire if he doesn’t find one, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reports on Twitter. The 17-year MLB veteran, now 38 years old, last appeared in the majors in 2012. But he was rather productive for the NPB’s Rakuten club between 2013 and 2014, slashing .232/.392/.441 in 1185 total plate appearances. It is worth noting, though, that Jones did not end up playing last year after reportedly seeking another shot at the bigs.
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