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West Notes: Giants, Yamamoto, Angels, Leiter

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The Giants have long been expected to be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams after missing out on megadeals for stars Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last offseason. While the club was still active on last year’s free agent market, deals for lower-profile players like Taylor Rogers, Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger didn’t save San Francisco from a 79-83 campaign that ended with a fourth place finish in the NL West this year. As president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his front office looks to turn things around ahead of the 2024 season, the club has been connected to plenty of top players this offseason, ranging from star outfielders Cody Bellinger and Juan Soto to reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell to even two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.

One such star the Giants are known to have interest in is NPB right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who Zaidi himself noted the club has scouted extensively in the run-up to his posting late last month. Today, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle provided an update on the club’s interest in Yamamoto, who ranked as the #3 free agent in this year’s edition of MLBTR’s annual top 50 free agents list. Per Slusser, other teams interested in Yamamoto believe that the Giants “have an edge” in the sweepstakes for his services. Yamamoto figures to be among the most sought-after free agents this winter, with reports indicating that nearly half the league has interest in the 25-year-old righty. The Mets and Yankees, in particular, have been connected to Yamamoto heavily to this point in the offseason.

Even if San Francisco does have a leg up in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, a signing would surely require a major financial outlay. The righty is widely expected to secure the largest deal of any starting pitcher on the market this winter besides Ohtani; MLBTR has projected him for a nine-year, $225MM deal that would only be surpassed by the guarantees secured by Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg among free agent starters. That shouldn’t be a problem for San Francisco, which reportedly offered Judge a deal in the $360MM range last offseason before 2022’s AL MVP ultimately returned to the Yankees.

More from MLB’s West divisions…

  • The Angels have made significant headway in assembling their 2024 coaching staff under new manager Ron Washington in recent weeks, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests the club previously offered both former Pirates and Rockies manager Clint Hurdle as well as 21-year MLB veteran LaTroy Hawkins roles on Washington’s staff; Hurdle was offered a job as Washington’s bench coach while Hawkins was offered the bullpen coach role. Nightengale goes on to note both men are expected to retain their current roles as special assistants to the front offices in Colorado and Minnesota, respectively. That’s hardly a surprise, as the club has reportedly hired Steve Karsay as the new bullpen coach in Anaheim while bench coach Ray Montgomery will remain in that role for a third season in 2024.
  • The Rangers were open to moving right-handed prospect Jack Leiter at the trade deadline this summer in the right deal for pitching, according to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. The second-overall pick of the 2021 draft was initially expected to be a fast-rising arm who could impact the big league club shortly after being drafted, but the righty has struggled to this point in his professional career. While Grant notes that Leiter made some strides last season, he’s not yet ready to contribute in the majors and could be part of the return for a front-of-the-rotation arm, should Texas look to the trade market in their search for rotation upgrades this winter. While Leiter has a career 5.37 ERA across two minor league seasons, the 23-year-old ended the 2023 campaign on a relative high note with a 3.31 ERA and a 39.7% strikeout rate in his final four starts at the Double-A level.

AL West Notes: Angels, Leiter, Astros

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After a strong start to the 2023 campaign, the Angels have faltered with a 4-14 record over their last 18 games. That slip to fourth place in the AL West has been accompanied by a rash of major injuries to key players like Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Gio Urshela. Fortunately for the club, the tides of their injury misfortune may be turning. MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger notes that both infielder Brandon Drury and catcher Logan O’Hoppe have progressed to hitting off a tee in their injury rehab processes.

Drury, in a particular, seems poised for a quick return, as Bollinger adds that he hopes to return from injury “in a few days.” O’Hoppe is farther away, considering his initial recovery timeline of four to six months after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum back in April. Still, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register indicates that O’Hoppe’s recovery is going well, as he told reporters that his healing process following the surgery is expected to end next week, allowing him to focus on baseball activities going forward. While no specifics were given regarding O’Hoppe’s timeline for return, his most recent comments seem to leave the possibility of a late-season return on the table, which is excellent news given his status as the Angels’ top prospect entering the 2023 campaign.

More from around the AL West…

  • It’s been a frustrating season for the Rangers and 2021 second overall pick Jack Leiter. After his selection in the 2021 draft, Leiter entered the 2022 season as a consensus top-25 prospect in the sport. Since then, however, he’s struggled mightily when pitching at the Double-A level, with a 5.54 ERA in 92 2/3 innings of work last season that saw him fall off many top 100 lists entering the 2023 campaign. Things haven’t gotten better from there, as Leiter has posted an eerily similar 5.52 ERA in 15 starts (65 1/3 innings) this season. Leiter’s struggles culminated in the club moving him to the development list yesterday, taking him off the Double-A active roster. Per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today, the club hopes to work with Leiter on his mechanics in a more controlled environment than minor league starts can provide, and has offered no timetable for Leiter’s return to game action. It’s a deeply disappointing update for Rangers fans, as the 54-39 club would surely benefit from the front-line production Leiter was expected to provide when he was selected with the second overall pick two years ago.
  • While the Astros have not been shy about their desire to acquire rotation help ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, Astros GM Dana Brown recently discussed with reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) the club’s back-up plan in the event that the club fails to acquire a surefire starter for the rotation over the next couple of weeks. Brown indicated that the club would consider a second half call-up for right-hander Spencer Arrighetti to help supplement the rotation if reinforcements are still necessary after the deadline. A sixth-round pick in the 2021 draft, Arrighetti a 4.21 ERA in 72 2/3 innings of work between the Double- and Triple-A levels this season. While Arrighetti seems unlikely to provide the same impact a rental starter such as Lucas Giolito or Eduardo Rodriguez could offer, the Astros have managed to find success while relying on unheralded rookies this season, including J.P. France, Ronel Blanco, and Shawn Dubin.

Big Hype Prospects: Jones, Leiter, Alvarez, Chourio, De La Cruz

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll mostly focus our attention upon invitees to the Futures Game.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Nolan Jones, 24, OF, CLE (AAA)

108 PA, 3 HR, 4 SB, .311/.417/.500

Once on pace to debut during the 2020 season as a 22-year-old, several factors considerably slowed Jones’s ascent. First, he came back rusty from the lost 2020 minor league season, performing particularly poorly in May. He improved as the season progressed and could have arrived in Cleveland last September if not for a season-ending ankle injury in late-August. He also opened the 2022 season on the injured list while recovering from surgery for the same injury. The Guardians finally appear poised to promote him after a month in Triple-A.

Jones is best known for his plate discipline. Expect him to show the same discerning eye as Max Muncy. Jones has a little more swing-and-miss to his game which could manifest in a 30 percent strikeout rate. Whereas Muncy’s swing has plenty of loft, Jones skews heavily towards ground ball contact. He has the raw power to be a 30-homer threat, but his combination of grounders and infrequent contact leave him projected for only 20 home runs per 600 plate appearances. Although he’s always posted exceptional BABIPs in the minors, he can get pull happy. That could open him up to BABIP-killing shifts. Since his game revolves around walks and balls in play, anything that negatively affects his BABIP could also affect how he’s used.

Jack Leiter, 22, SP, TEX (AA)

48.2 IP, 11.10 K/9, 5.18 BB/9, 5.36 ERA

Leiter was aggressively assigned to Double-A to start the season, and it hasn’t been an easy transition. Optimists can readily spot encouraging signs. He’s held batters to just 44 hits while recording 60 strikeouts. Unfortunately, he’s also issued 28 walks and hit five batters. Command isn’t expected to be a long-term issue for Leiter, but it is one he’s presently battling. He’s issued 16 walks over his last 19.2 innings.

Fortunately, the recent second-overall pick retains all of his glamorous tools. He features three plus offerings – a rising fastball, curve, and slider. He also has an underdeveloped changeup. He’ll represent the Rangers in the Futures Game.

Francisco Alvarez, 20, C, NYM (AAA)

(AA) 296 PA, 18 HR, .277/.368/.553

With Adley Rutschman graduated, Alvarez is now the consensus top catching prospect in the minors. He was recently promoted to Triple-A where he’s 1-for-10 in 13 plate appearances. He’s the Mets Futures Game representative.

Alvarez is an advanced hitter. Already one of the youngest players at Triple-A, he features plus plate discipline and huge raw power. At times, he sells out for pull-side contact. His minor league batted ball data include low line drive rates which could manifest as a low BABIP in the Majors. That said, he’s on pace to debut early next season as a 21-year-old catcher, a developmental path which tends to lead to storied careers. His bat will need to carry what could be a below average defensive profile. While he’s not bad enough to move off the position, the Mets might opt to use him as a part-time designated hitter to keep his bat in the lineup while allowing certain pitchers to work with a better defender.

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A)

236 PA, 11 HR, 9 SB, .318/.369/.594

Chourio might be the next 20-year-old uber-prospect to debut in the Majors. He will be the youngest participant in the Futures Game. Only 18, he’s already performing impressive feats of strength including three home runs in July. Presently, there’s some swing-and-miss and overaggression to his approach, but not to the extent that either is a problem. We’ll see how these secondary traits develop as he climbs the ladder.

Since earlier this season, I’ve yet to hear or read any description of Chourio that wasn’t effusive in its praise. He’s the hip teenage breakout of the year. MLB Prospect Pipeline actually has him ranked ahead of 2021’s big teenage breakout, Elly De La Cruz. At least one other midseason update will also rank Chourio ahead of De La Cruz.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, 3B/SS, CIN (A+)

268 PA, 18 HR, 26 SB, .302/.357/.597

Speaking of De La Cruz, fantasy baseball enthusiasts are undoubtedly drooling over his combination of power and speed. The switch-hitter produces some of the top exit velocities in the minors. He’s built like Oneil Cruz, albeit two inches shorter. The obvious flaws in his game relate to discipline and whiff rate. He could have exploitable flaws as he ascends the minor league ladder. However, we’ve seen other players with this rare athletic-profile improve their strikeout rate enough to become a superstar. Since June 28, a span of 34 plate appearances, De La Cruz has five home runs and a .387/.441/.903 slash. He might not return to High-A after the Futures Game.

Five More

Yosver Zulueta, TOR (24): Zulueta will appear in the Futures Game after already churning through three levels of the minors. His development has been slowed first by Tommy John surgery and then by a torn ACL. He needs to be placed on the 40-man roster after this season (or exposed to the Rule 5 draft) despite having faced only one batter prior to this year. A former big bonus international free agent, Zulueta could move fast as a high leverage reliever, but he might also have the stuff to start with a Spencer Strider-like two-pitch approach.

DL Hall, BAL (23): Since the last BHP, Hall has pitched twice. He’s totaled 10 innings of one-run ball including just four hits allowed and three walks. He struck out 22 of 38 batters faced. Hall is more than halfway to a career-high in innings. He might be seen as ready to get his feet wet in the Majors as a short-burst starter. Notably, his 5.77 BB/9 in Triple-A could be a barrier to starting long-term. Of qualified pitchers, Dylan Cease ranks last with 4.21 BB/9. Pitchers with higher walk rates don’t pile up innings. Hall will not be attending the Futures Game.

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson is the Orioles Futures Game representative. He’s also jumped into the Top five on the MLB.com Prospect Pipeline. He’s actually in his first funk of the season, batting just .133/.188/.167 with 15 strikeouts over his last seven games (32 PA).

Logan O’Hoppe, PHI (22): The Phillies have left O’Hoppe in Double-A where he’s batting .270/.383/.521 with 14 home runs and five steals in 256 plate appearances. His offensive numbers could be inflated both by Reading and a weak Double-A pitching environment. Either way, he profiles as a future big league regular. If the Phillies remain in contention in the upcoming weeks, he’s their one big, expendable trade chip. He might stay in Double-A through the deadline.

Kyle Harrison, SFG (20): Like many pitching prospects, Harrison’s workload was carefully managed early in the season at High-A. Upon promotion to Double-A, he’s been making normal starts typically in the range of 20 to 24 batters faced. He’s on track to make his Major League debut in 2023. His mechanics offer an uncomfortable look. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a front angle. He has a floor as a high-leverage reliever, but he’s likelier to be used as a mid-rotation pitcher.

Rangers Sign Jack Leiter

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The Rangers announced Wednesday that they’ve signed No. 2 overall draft pick Jack Leiter. He’ll join the club on a bonus worth a bit more than $7.9MM, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). That checks in slightly above the $7.7899MM slot value associated with the selection. It’s also more than $1MM north of the $6.5MM bonus for #1 overall pick Henry Davis and seems likely to wind up as the top bonus in this year’s class.

That’s not too surprising considering Leiter’s pedigree. The 21-year-old has been touted as one of the likely top picks in the draft for more than a year and only reinforced that hype with a dominant season at Vanderbilt in 2021. In 110 innings, the 6’1″, 205-pound righty pitched to a pristine 2.13 ERA while punching out 41.6 percent of his opponents. His 179 total strikeouts tied with Vandy teammate Kumar Rocker for tops in the country among Division I hurlers.

Leiter entered the draft as the consensus top arm available. Each of Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Baseball America and Keith Law of the Athletic placed the righty as the best pitcher on their pre-draft rankings and among the five most talented players in the class overall. Leiter’s arsenal is headlined by a mid-90’s fastball with excellent life that plays above barrels at the top of the strike zone. His assortment of secondary offerings are solid, and Leiter has the athleticism and mechanics to project as an obvious starting pitcher. He’s polished enough that he should arrive in the majors rather quickly.

2021 MLB Draft, Day One Results

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The 2021 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll be keeping track of tonight’s picks as they’re announced.  The draft will get underway this evening with the first 36 picks — the first round proper, the compensatory round (which consists of just one pick, the Reds’ extra selection granted when Trevor Bauer rejected their qualifying offer last winter and signed with the Dodgers for more than $50MM), and then Competitive Balance Round A.

Rounds 2-10 (plus the included compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round B) will take place on Monday afternoon, and then rounds 11-20 will take place Tuesday afternoon.  This year’s draft is to 20 rounds from five rounds in 2020, and the current expectation is that the 2022 draft will return to its old 40-round format, though the draft structure will be one of many topics under discussion when the league and the players’ union negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement this winter.

For more on these stars of the future, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The selections…

  1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, University Of Louisville
  2. Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  3. Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
  4. Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
  5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State University
  6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas, TX)
  7. Kansas City Royals: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic High School (CT)
  8. Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
  9. Los Angeles Angels: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (Ohio)
  10. New York Mets: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  11. Washington Nationals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
  12. Seattle Mariners: Harry Ford, C/OF, North Cobb High School (GA)
  13. Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FLA)
  14. San Francisco Giants: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State University
  15. Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
  16. Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
  17. Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
  18. St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
  19. Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University Of Mississippi
  20. New York Yankees: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois University
  21. Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University
  22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge High School (IN)
  23. Cleveland Indians: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
  24. Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest University
  25. Oakland Athletics: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA)
  26. Minnesota Twins: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional High School (NJ)
  27. San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park High School (MD)
  28. Tampa Bay Rays: Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines High School (CA)
  29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL)
  30. Cincinnati Reds (compensatory pick): Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic High School (FL)
  31. Miami Marlins (Competitive Balance Round A): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East High School (NY)
  32. Detroit Tigers (CBR-A): Ty Madden, RHP, University of Texas
  33. Milwaukee Brewers (CBR-A): Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
  34. Tampa Bay Rays (CBR-A): Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor High School (TN)
  35. Cincinnati Reds (CBR-A): Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State University
  36. Minnesota Twins (CBR-A): Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (WI)

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