Latest On Giancarlo Stanton, James Paxton
Had the Major League Baseball season started on time, the Yankees would have had to come out of the gates without three of their most important players. Injured outfielders Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton and left-hander James Paxton all would have missed some portion of the campaign, but if this season does get underway, they should be ready from the outset.
We already know about Judge, who’s progressing in his recovery from a rib stress fracture. His fellow slugger Stanton is also on the road back, manager Aaron Boone told Meredith Marakovits of the YES Network (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).
“Giancarlo’s doing well,” Boone said. “He’s still reporting in Tampa and going through his rehab. He’s doing really well. When we get ready to go, he should certainly be ready to be back and part of things.”
Stanton suffered a calf injury in the final week of February, rendering him doubtful for a normal Opening Day. It was especially unwelcome in light of Stanton’s abbreviated 2019, when biceps and knee issues limited him to a meager 18 regular-season games. That was Year 2 in a Yankees uniform for Stanton, whom they acquired from the Marlins on the heels of his 2017 NL MVP-winning season and who produced a .266/.343/.509 line with 38 home runs in 705 plate appearances during his only full season as a Yankee. He’s still signed for a guaranteed $244MM through 2027 (including a $10MM buyout for ’28). While the 30-year-old will have an opportunity to opt out of his contract after this season, it seems extremely unlikely he’ll take advantage of that chance even if he does enjoy a healthy and productive 2020.
There are better odds that Paxton has donned Yankees pinstripes for the last time. He’ll be a free agent next winter, after all, and no one knows whether a season will occur in the meantime. Paxton has consistently performed well for the Mariners and Yankees over the past few years, which would make him an appealing free agent, but injuries have been an all-too-common problem along the way. He underwent back surgery in early February and was set to be sidelined into May. But the 31-year-old’s recovery has gone “pretty smoothly,” according to Boone, who added he’s “really encouraged where James is.”
Paxton’s importance to New York’s staff only increased when righty Luis Severino underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery in February. That procedure left Paxton as arguably the Yankees’ top complement to Gerrit Cole, with Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ and Jordan Montgomery also in the mix. Paxton showed well in his first season as a Yankee, averaging better than 95 mph on his fastball and turning in 150 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA/3.86 FIP ball with 11.11 K/9 and 3.29 BB/9.
Latest On James Paxton, Yankees’ Rotation
Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake told reporters Wednesday that left-hander James Paxton is progressing well in his rehab from back surgery (Twitter links via Brendan Kuty of the New Jersey Star-Ledger). The left-hander went under the knife in early February, after which the Yankees announced a timetable of three to four months for his recovery. Paxton is throwing at his home in Wisconsin, and the club is optimistic about his recovery.
As notably, Blake revealed that right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga would’ve factored “heavily” into the team’s rotation picture had the season begun on time. Absent Paxton, Luis Severino and Domingo German, it was clear that left-hander Jordan Montgomery was the team’s fourth starter (behind Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ). Loaisiga was one of many candidates vying for the fifth spot — a race that also included Mike King, Deivi Garcia, Luis Cessa and perhaps non-roster invitees such as Chad Bettis and Nick Tropeano.
Loaisiga’s standing could be rendered moot with Opening Day pushed back indefinitely, as it appears increasingly likely that Paxton could be ready to suit up when (or if) the season does eventually commence. But it’s nevertheless telling that Loaisiga appears to have had a leg up on his competitors, as that could provide some insight into the organization’s contingency plans in the event of additional early-season injuries.
The 25-year-old Loaisiga has been plagued by durability issues himself, including last season, when a shoulder strain limited him to 80 2/3 innings between the minors and the big leagues. However, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus both ranked him among baseball’s 100 best prospects prior to the ’19 season. In a combined 88 2/3 minor league innings from 2017-18, he posted a 2.60 ERA with a 100-to-11 K/BB ratio.
Aaron Hicks Begins Throwing Program
Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks has been cleared to begin a throwing program, manager Aaron Boone told reporters Wednesday (Twitter links via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Boone didn’t provide a further timetable on Hicks, but it’s a notable step in the 30-year-old’s recovery from last October’s Tommy John surgery.
As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne noted when looking at how the postponing of Opening Day impacts the Yankees, Hicks’ recovery timetable was expected to be eight to 10 months, which would put him in line for a return anywhere from June until August. Depending on when (or if) the season is able to commence, it’s possible that Hicks could return to the lineup without having missed much time at all.
That’d be a notable boost for the Yankees; while many have lamented the seven-year, $70MM contract signed by Hicks immediately before back injuries caused him to begin the 2019 season on the IL (and before his elbow required surgery), it’s worth remembering just how strong Hicks’ 2017-18 seasons were. During that time, he slashed .255/.368/.470 with 42 home runs, 36 doubles, three triples and 21 steals through 942 plate appearances. In the field, he totaled 4 Defensive Runs Saved, a 5.7 Ultimate Zone Rating and was at least average, per Statcast’s OAA metric.
Boone also noted that lefty James Paxton, on the mend from back surgery, is continuing a throwing program at his Wisconsin home. All appears to be well on that front — or, at least, no setback or negative updates were provided — which bodes well for an on-target return to the mound. The Yankees announced he’d be sidelined three to four months when he underwent back surgery in February.
As for right fielder Aaron Judge, Boone offered little in terms of timeline but gave what’s sure to be a frustrating update for fans when he revealed that the slugger’s collapsed lung could date all the way back to a diving attempt in the outfield last September. “It’s probably something that’s impossible to know for sure, but I would believe that it’s all interrelated,” said Boone. Judge will be re-evaluated in a “few weeks” after his cracked rib has had more time to heal, tweets Brendan Kuty of the New Jersey Star-Ledger.
Latest On Stanton, Paxton Progress
The Yankees have missed a few key players early in camp, but two were back on the field today, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports (links to Twitter). Both Giancarlo Stanton and James Paxton are participating in some baseball activities this morning.
Stanton, who has been nursing a calf injury, was able to take live batting practice today. Stepping in against a big-league hurler represents a notable step that seems to suggest there has been real progress.
The Yanks have already ruled Stanton out for Opening Day, but the hope has remained that he’ll be ready before the month of April is out. Today’s development buttresses that belief.
As for Paxton, he was throwing with teammates this morning. That’s a notable milestone — indeed, it’s the first time he has tossed a ball since undergoing a back procedure in mid-December.
It’s good to see Paxton back to baseball activities, but he still obviously has a ways to go. At this point, the southpaw says he views a mid-May return to the majors as a best-case outcome.
Health Notes: Paxton, Rodgers, Morrow, Buttrey
As spring training games kick off, let’s check in on some injury situations around the game.
- The early stages of James Paxton’s recovery from February back surgery have been promising, reports Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. Paxton is “optimistic” he’ll begin a throwing program around ten days from now, relays Ackert. Paxton suggested he could be back in the Yankees’ rotation by May, which would be at the early end of the three to four month estimate for his recovery immediately post-surgery. A prompt return from the southpaw is perhaps even more important with Luis Severino now dealing with uncertainty of his own. The 31-year-old Paxton posted a solid 3.82 ERA with strong strikeout (29.4%) and walk (8.7%) rates over 150.2 innings in his first season in pinstripes in 2019.
- Rockies’ infielder Brendan Rodgers is ahead of schedule in his own recovery from surgery. The season-ending shoulder procedure he underwent last June was expected to keep him out until sometime in May, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com, but that timetable could be moving up. Rodgers is hitting without pain, Harding reports, and the infielder estimated he could log reps at DH by March 3. The next step, Harding adds, is for Rodgers to begin a throwing program from shortstop, although he’s already throwing from 160 feet without pain, he says. The former top prospect tells Harding not to rule out a potential Opening Day return.
- In less promising news, Cubs’ reliever Brandon Morrow has been shut down “for at least a few days” with a “mild right upper chest strain,” reports Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (Twitter link). Morrow’s timetable for return is unclear, Bastian adds. Standing alone, a non-arm problem wouldn’t be all that worrisome at this stage of spring training. With Morrow’s litany of prior injuries, though, it’s certainly concerning to hear he’s again fighting through pain. Morrow re-signed with the Cubs on a minor-league deal this offseason after injuries wrecked his first two years with the organization. When healthy, the 35-year-old has proven a highly-effective option in the late innings.
- Another high-leverage reliever, Angels’ right-hander Ty Buttrey, expects to throw off a mound by next Thursday, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Buttrey suffered an intercostal strain last week, but it never seemed particularly serious. He should be a full go for Opening Day, Fletcher adds.
AL Notes: Yankees, Angels, Indians, Twins, Rays
The Yankees’ rotation took a serious shot Wednesday when it was announced that they’ll go without left-hander James Paxton for three to four months on account of back surgery. General manager Brian Cashman discussed the news with Joel Sherman of the New York Post, saying Paxton first complained of back discomfort in his final regular-season outing Sept. 27. That didn’t stop Paxton from making three playoff appearances, though, and Cashman noted surgery was a “last resort.” The timing of the procedure’s not ideal, but the Yankees didn’t want to rush into a decision, according to Cashman.
One of Paxton’s fellow Yankees lefties, J.A. Happ, was a trade candidate earlier this offseason, but Cashman revealed Paxton’s injury “certainly” played a part in the team’s decision to keep him. However, there was trade interest in Happ, Cashman told Sherman. “There was a lot of knocking on our door about it,” he said.
Here’s more from the American League…
- Angels infielder Luis Rengifo appears to be on the verge of going to the Dodgers in a trade for outfielder Joc Pederson. It’s not the first time Rengifo’s name has come up in trade talks this offseason, though. Rengifo was part of the discussions between the Angels and Indians when the two teams were weighing a Corey Kluber swap back in December, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. The two clubs couldn’t come to an agreement, and the Indians ended up trading Kluber to the Rangers a few days later.
- Twins righty Jake Odorizzi decided to forgo free agency this offseason in favor of the team’s $17.8MM qualifying offer. Odorizzi may have done better on the open market – MLBTR predicted a three year, $51MM payday – but he doesn’t regret his choice to stick with Minnesota on a short-term deal. “Not a bit,” he told Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. “I made my decision based on the best knowledge we had at the time. Money started flying around pretty quick, and the market got pretty hot, but nobody predicted that.” Indeed, there has been far more money distributed in free agency than many anticipated when the offseason began. Odorizzi’s now left to hope the cash will continue flowing next winter if he gets to free agency, though Miller writes that he remains “open to” a long-term pact with the Twins.
- Rays outfield prospect Josh Lowe underwent right shoulder debridement surgery in November and “likely” won’t return to action until late May, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The 22-year-old Lowe, a 2016 first-round pick and the younger brother of Rays first baseman Nate Lowe, ranks as the team’s 11th overall prospect at MLB.com. Josh Lowe enjoyed a strong season at the Double-A level last year, when he slashed .252/.341/.442 with 18 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 519 plate appearances.
James Paxton Out Three To Four Months Following Back Surgery
The Yankees announced Wednesday that left-hander James Paxton will be sidelined for an expected three to four months after undergoing a microscopic lumbar discectomy operation with the removal of a peridiscal cyst.
It’s a tough blow for the Yankees before their spring camp even opens, as Paxton will now be sidelined until at least early May and possibly into June. That represents something of a best-case scenario and assumes no substantial setbacks along the way for the 31-year-old lefty.
Paxton was perhaps the Yankees’ most effective starter in 2019, tossing 150 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA ball over the life of 29 starts in his first season with the club. The longtime Mariners starter averaged 11.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 1.37 HR/9 after being acquired in the trade that sent lefty Justus Sheffield, right-hander Erik Swanson and outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams to Seattle in the preceding offseason.
The Yankees spent a good portion of the offseason exploring trade scenarios involving fellow left-hander J.A. Happ, but they’re now surely glad that no deal materialized. Happ now figures to be locked into a rotation spot behind Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. Paxton’s injury could also pave the way for left-hander Jordan Montgomery to break camp with the Yankees as a member of the starting staff in what will be his first full season back from 2018 Tommy John surgery.
The timing of the surgery is poor not only for the Yankees but for Paxton himself, as he’ll now miss a substantial portion of what will be his platform season for free agency. The left-hander avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $12.5MM salary earlier this winter and is slated to hit free agency next winter, where he’ll search for the first lucrative multi-year deal of his big league career. Today’s surgery doesn’t rule out the possibility of him cashing in, but there’s no getting around the fact that it’ll significantly alter his earning power on the open market.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League
Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.
We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
- The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
- The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
- Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ‘Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
- The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
- Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
- The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.
Earlier Settlements
Yankees’ “Total Focus” On Gerrit Cole
The Yankees “total focus” remains on reeling in the winter’s big fish: ace starter Gerrit Cole, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. That Cole is a priority for the Yankees is old news, though Heyman’s characterization certainly seems to stake a higher degree of urgency to the Yankees’ intent.
The nostalgic among us can take this opportunity to think fondly of the Yankees of yore, who routinely targeted their man in free agency with this kind of fervor. It’s been a few years since a free agent made this kind of impression on the Yanks, though they attacked the opportunity to trade for James Paxton last offseason with similar drive.
The urgency isn’t shocking coming off 2019, which proved an interesting campaign in New York. Injuries decimated the roster, but the offense never missed a beat no matter who stepped into the void (hello, Gio Urshela). They coasted to 103 wins and a division title, defeated the Minnesota Twins in the playoffs as they are wont to do, only to see the favor repaid in full by the new powerhouse of the day Houston Astros. The Yankees found themselves booted from the playoffs for the third time in the last five seasons by the Astros, making this pursuit of the ex-Astro Cole feel all the more crazy-eyed. That said, there is rarely a free agent with Cole’s pedigree, and if they’re going to channel the ghost of Steinbrenner and go all-in for a free agent, Cole is a worthy target.
Which is, of course, exactly why interest in the right-hander runs so rampant. As Heyman put it, the Yankees “don’t want to be denied” in their pursuit of Cole, but there is no shortage of contenders, including both LA teams, the Rangers, and the Phillies (who are a little crazy-eyed themselves these days). All five clubs have ample cause to pull out all the stops for Cole – on paper, they’re not alone.
CC Sabathia Not On Yankees’ ALDS Roster
The Yankees have yet to formally announce their full roster for their upcoming Division Series matchup with the Twins, but manager Aaron Boone announced today that veteran left-hander CC Sabathia will not be a part of the mix (Twitter links via Meredith Marakovits and Jack Curry of the YES Network).
Sabathia has been dealing with a shoulder issue and underwent a cortisone injection, but he hasn’t bounced back to the point where the team considers him an option to this pont. He could potentially factor into the ALCS roster if the Yankees advance beyond the ALDS. With Sabathia off the roster, the Yankees will go to a rotation featuring James Paxton in Game 1, Masahiro Tanaka in Game 2 and Luis Severino in Game 3. They’ll rely on that trio and an exceptionally deep bullpen, which Boone says he’ll be “aggressive” in deploying.
A full roster won’t be released until the Yankees need to formally release it (tomorrow morning), though Boone also indicated that Edwin Encarnacion is “expected” to be on the roster. The slugger hasn’t appeared in a game since Sept. 12 thanks to an oblique injury, but he’s apparently made sufficient progress that he’ll be an option in the best-of-five series that’ll kick off at Yankee Stadium tomorrow evening.
Depending on how the postseason plays out, then, it’s possible that Sabathia’s scoreless outing of relief against the Rays on Sept. 24 — the lone relief appearance of his illustrious 19-year career — could mark the final time he ever sets foot on a Major League mound. Even if the Yankees do advance to the ALCS, there’s no guarantee that Sabathia would be a part of the team’s pitching staff for that best-of-seven series. And, obviously, if the Yankees’ season comes to an end within the next week, Sabathia will head into retirement and take his first official steps toward Cooperstown a bit sooner than he or the organization had hoped.