Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Jeff Samardzija

Starting Pitching Notes: Shark, Lackey, Kuma, Shields, Miller, Nova, Fernandez

By | at

The Cubs remain interested in a reunion with Jeff Samardzija, reports ESPN’s Jayson Stark, but the team may be getting uncomfortable with the level to which his price is rising. Samardzija, who has reportedly received offers of $90MM and $100MM, is of interest to both the Giants and Dodgers, and the team that loses out on the services of Zack Greinke may very well turn to Samardzija, per Stark. Said one executive from a team that has interest in Samardzija: “I don’t know if he gets to nine figures. But if you put the over/under on him at $90 million, I’d go ’at’ or ’over.'”

Some more notes on what has been an aggressive and high-priced market for starting pitching thus far…

  • As the prices for arms like Samardzija and others rise, a two-year deal for John Lackey is becoming increasingly appealing for the Cubs, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. While the Cubs may indeed have interest in two years for Lackey, it seems reasonable enough to me to believe that interest in him could push the requirement to three years. Lackey will pitch next season at 37, but he’s delivered results that are either on part with or in excess of expectations for younger, second-tier starters and won’t come with as extravagant a price tag as Samardzija, Mike Leake or Wei-Yin Chen.
  • Having already completed five trades and signed four free agents — most recently Nori Aoki — the Mariners will turn their focus to re-signing Hisashi Iwakuma, writes MLB.com’s Greg Johns. General manager Jerry Dipoto told Johns and other reporters that while he still needs to address utility infielder and determine who will play first base in 2015, his focus will be shifting more to the rotation for the time being. “We are continuing to move along with Kuma and we’ll see where that takes us,” said Dipoto.
  • Turning from free agency to the trade side of the starting pitching market, Stark tweeted yesterday that the Padres are hoping to move James Shields without having to eat any money in the deal, citing unnamed clubs that have been in trade talks with San Diego. Not only that, they’re hoping to land a younger shortstop option in the deal. Clearly, that’s a lofty and unlikely goal, as Shields along doesn’t carry that type of value on his own and comes with significant downside given his opt-out clause. If the Padres were willing to take back a sizable contract in exchange for Shields, perhaps the scenario would become more plausible.
  • The Padres, though, think the rising price of free agent starters could make the remaining $65MM on Shields’ contract look more appealing (links to Twitter). That may be the case, but Shields certainly isn’t a bargain, and some scouts tell Rosenthal they feel that Shields’s stuff is in decline. And, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweeted yesterday, his opt-out clause makes him a risky target for any club. Shields isn’t a lock to opt out of the deal even with a big 2016 season, per Lin, because he loves living in San Diego. A trade might make him more inclined to re-enter the market if he performs well enough, so a team could be acquiring just one year of him if he performs up to his previous standards. On the other hand — the aforementioned downside — if Shields repeats his 2015 results or struggles even further, then the team would be left with the two years and $44MM on his contract from 2017-18.
  • The Rockies like Braves right-hander Shelby Miller quite a bit, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. However, Colorado and Atlanta haven’t discussed a possible swap “in a while,” a source told Saunders. While the Braves are seeking outfield upgrades, an expensive and relatively short-term asset like Carlos Gonzalez wouldn’t hold appeal to the Braves, he writes. Rather, a player like Corey Dickerson and other prospects would probably be Atlanta’s asking price, he continues, adding that the Rox aren’t presently in the Miller derby.
  • The White Sox were interested in both Jesse Chavez and Ivan Nova last month, reports George A. King III of the New York Post, but the fact that Chavez is now off the board following a trade to Toronto hasn’t increased Chicago’s interest in Nova. The Yankees have discussed Nova with multiple teams and will continue to market him at the Winter Meetings, though the asking price reported by King — a younger arm with more controllable years — seems too steep unless the Yankees are adding other pieces to the deal.
  • The Marlins aren’t shopping ace Jose Fernandez, president of baseball operations Michael Hill tells MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Hill said he’s “not sure where that came from” in reference to rumors that Fernandez could be had in trades, but the plan is for Fernandez to front Miami’s rotation next season. Hill said that teams, naturally, ask for Fernandez all the time, just as they did with Giancarlo Stanton prior to his extension. But, that’s to be expected with elite players that are not locked up on contract extensions, he notes, and inquiring teams are informed that Fernandez isn’t for sale.

Jeff Samardzija Has Offers Of $90-100MM

By | at

DEC. 3: An $18MM average annual value is the “going rate” for Samardzija, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com/CBS Chicago hears (Twitter link). A source confirmed to Levine that at least one team has offered Samardzija $90MM. It remains unclear which teams are involved at this level, but it would appear that Samardzija has at least a pair of quite strong offers in hand already as his camp gears up for the Winter Meetings.

DEC. 2: The representatives of free agent righty Jeff Samardzija are telling teams that the hurler already has at least one $100MM offer on the table, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. Needless to say, that’s a huge number for a pitcher coming off a down year, but speaks to his popularity among scouts and executives.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained in his profile of the talented veteran, there’s a lot to like about Samardzija despite his ugly ERA last season. Dierkes foresaw a five-year, $80MM deal resulting.

To be sure, it once seemed plenty plausible to imagine Samardzija taking down nine figures in free agency. His outstanding 2014 season appeared to set the table for just that kind of payday, and the fact that he was traded for a premium prospect in Addison Russell confirmed that the market put a high value on his arm. And it’s often been noted that Samardzija comes with relatively low mileage.

Free Agent Notes: Utley, Victorino, Cubs, Rangers, Giants, Non-Tenders

By | at

Both the Angels and Dodgers have ongoing interest in free agent Chase Utley, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com tweets. A source tells Stark that the veteran would like to play in his native California, and it seems he’ll have options to do just that. Utley has been consistently linked to the Dodgers since they declined his $15MM option, and agent Joel Wolfe recently went on-record to state that five or six teams have expressed interest in Utley as a “mostly everyday infielder.” From my vantage point, the Angels have a clearer path to regular (or near-regular) at-bats for Utley. The Dodgers have multiple infield options, including Enrique Hernandez and Jose Peraza.

A few more notes on the free-agent market…

  • Another former Phillies stalwart, Shane Victorino, is telling clubs that he intends to return to switch hitting in advance of the 2016 season, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. “I am finding out that not switch-hitting and not doing things from both sides of the plate had lots to do with the way my body has felt,” Victorino told Rosenthal. “Going back and doing things from both sides is such a good thing for my body now that I can physically do it again.”
  • Within that same piece, Rosenthal notes that the Cubs are “busy” looking for a center fielder but are faced with relatively limited options. Dexter Fowler is a possibility for the Cubs but is currently exploring the open market. Signing Jason Heyward to play center field is an option, but the team would then need to address its rotation in a cost-effective manner by trading a young bat such as Jorge Soler or Javier Baez. If Soler ends up being the price to bolster the rotation, then the outfield would, of course, remain an issue.
  • The Rangers still love Mike Napoli, tweets MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan, but general manager Jon Daniels indicated today that his club may not have the “right spot” to fit Napoli into the mix next season. Sullivan’s Seattle counterpart, Greg Johns, however, tweets that Napoli could potentially be of interest to the Mariners, who have a need at first base after trading both Logan Morrison and Mark Trumbo this offseason. Napoli struggled for much of the season in Boston but was reinvigorated by a return to the Lone Star State, hitting .295/.396/.513 in 91 plate appearances with the Rangers. His cumulative .278/.391/.563 line against lefties last year indicates that Napoli, at the very least, is still a highly potent platoon option.
  • Sticking with former Rangers, right-hander Colby Lewis tells Jeff Wilson of the Forth Worth Star-Telegram that Dr. Keith Meister gave him a “thumbs up” on his left knee (links to Twitter). Lewis has been working out and expects to be 100 percent for Spring Training. Many teams have contacted his agents at Octagon, says Lewis, though he remains hopeful that the Rangers will be interested after his latest knee exam. There’s some interest on both sides, according to Wilson.
  • The Giants consider Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake fallback plans in the event that they’re unable to lure Zack Greinke away from L.A., tweets Rosenthal. John Lackey, too, is a consideration for San Francisco. There’s no word yet on a decision from Greinke, who is said to be choosing between the Dodgers and Giants.
  • In the wake of yesterday’s tender deadline, MLB.com’s Zachary Finkelstein identified five non-tendered players that are still worthy of roster spots and can be potential bargains for clubs in 2016 (and, in some cases, beyond). Henderson Alvarez tops the list and is followed by Pedro Alvarez, Chris Carter, Tyler Flowers and Neftali Feliz. Alvarez’s youth and track record, the power of Alvarez and Carter, the pitch-framing abilities of Flowers and still-strong velocity plus a nice finish for Feliz give some elements of value to each, he writes.

Olney’s Latest: Price, Greinke, Carrasco, Shark, Cubs, Heyward

By | at

ESPN’s Buster Olney begins his latest Insider-only blog post by offering his take on David Price’s deal with the Red Sox. Olney notes that while the blame for Boston’s failure to retain Jon Lester as its ace lies on owner John Henry and not former GM Ben Cherington, Henry deserves credit for recognizing the mistake and going to the measures necessary to bolster his rotation. Rival evaluators have wondered to Olney how Price will adapt to losing his velocity as he ages, but for the short-term, Price gives Boston exactly what it needed — an ace to front the rotation and shift names like Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez and the injury-prone Clay Buchholz down the rotation.

Some more highlights from Olney’s column…

  • Price’s signing creates a perfect storm for Zack Greinke, who now stands alone as the top free agent starter on the market with a pair of division rivals — the Giants and Dodgers — bidding against one another to secure his services. One person close to the situation suggested to Olney that Greinke could land a five-year deal worth $165MM (an average annual value of $33MM), which meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Jayson Stark that said Greinke could take a five-year deal if it meant a sizable increase over Price’s AAV.
  • The Indians have been listening to offers on their young starters, but the price tags for pitchers like Price and Greinke have underscored the value of controllable, young arms like Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, leading to a perhaps exorbitant asking price. For instance, the Indians asked the Giants for a package that included both Brandon Belt and Joe Panik in exchange for Carrasco in recent talks, according to Olney. While some Giants fans may recoil at the notion, Olney writes that with pitchers such as J.A. Happ commanding $36MM over three years, Carrasco’s four-year, $22MM contract and two club options come with incredibly high value. Carrasco talks between the two sides are dead at this point, he adds.
  • The Cubs have been positioning themselves for a run at Jeff Samardzija since before Price made his final decision. The Giants are among the other clubs with interest in Samardzija, according to Olney, who wonders if the teams that missed out on both Price and (eventually) Greinke will then check in with Johnny Cueto as an alternative.
  • The Cardinals have at least spoken to Greinke, but there’s no indication that they’re prepared to compete with the Dodgers and Giants for his services, making it seem unlikely that they’ll emerge as a late dark-horse candidate in his market.
  • The Cubs weren’t comfortable with the notion of roughly $55MM per season for a pair of pitchers each season for the foreseeable future, referring to a potential combo of Price and Lester. Olney calls a swap of Jorge Soler and Braves right-hander Shelby Miller a potential plan B for Chicago, which would then free up the club to make a run at Jason Heyward.

Cubs Notes: Samardzija, Zobrist, Leake, Lackey

By | at

ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers has penned a column on the status of the Cubs’ targets in free agency at present. To this point, the team hasn’t given any indication that a pursuit of either Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto is a possibility, leaving David Price as the sole top-tier arm that the Cubs could be expected to pursue, Rogers writes. The Cubs’ Plan B in terms of free-agent pitchers focuses on Jeff Samardzija at this point, according to Rogers, and sources tell him that the team is also in the mix for Ben Zobrist. Signing Zobrist would all but ensure a trade of Starlin Castro, but of course, there is widespread interest in Zobrist, who is one of the most popular free agents on this year’s market. Rogers lists Jason Heyward as a perhaps speculative target but notes that president Theo Epstein has pointed out in the past how young the game is getting, and Heyward, 26, would indeed fit into the Cubs’ youth movement in terms of position players. I’d imagine that signing Heyward would create further trade speculation surrounding Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber, though Rogers doesn’t indicate that Heyward is a top target of the Cubs as things presently stand, so much of that speculation would be putting the cart before the horse.

Here are a few more notes pertaining to the Cubs…

  • CSN Chicago’s David Kaplan hears that the Cubs are active on many fronts at this point but still doesn’t believe that the Cubs will be significant players for Price or Greinke (links to Twitter). Kaplan hears that the Cubs are currently active on the trade market and are also in touch with the representatives for Samardzija, Mike Leake and John Lackey. Unsurprisingly, the Cubs’ highly touted farm system has many names that are in high demand as the team explores the trade market for starting pitching. Any of Samardzija, Leake or Lackey would give the Cubs a strong third starter to slot behind Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester in the rotation.
  • Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes that the difference between this winter and last offseason for the Cubs is that Epstein & Co. can now sell prospective free agents on the allure of joining a contender rather than preaching patience and trust that the rebuild will deliver a winning club. Epstein also explained to Sullivan a number of non-monetary incentives that the Cubs pitch to players, including the team’s new clubhouse and the programs the Cubs have set up for the families of players to enjoy upon relocating to Chicago. “Just little things behind the scenes we do that really impact the lives for our players’ families they may not be aware of,” said Epstein. Of course, as Sullivan notes, those factors alone probably won’t outweigh the difference between tens of millions of dollars, but they could help tip the scales in Chicago’s favor should they make a similar offer to another club for a free agent target.
  • Epstein noted today that the club’s early-offseason moves haven’t been without their importance, as Rogers reports. “Depth is underrated, especially in the winter,” said Hoyer. “Everyone will write out lineups in the offseason and they don’t focus on bench, they don’t focus on the bullpen, they don’t focus on guys in Triple-A that are going up and down. Over the course of six months, those are the little moves that make a huge difference.” But Hoyer made clear that more impactful transactions are coming in the near term, with the organization prepared to adapt as the market explodes. “You have to stay nimble and know things will come at you that you might not have expected,” he said. “Some team will throw an idea at us that we never thought about.”

Orioles Notes: Davis, Pitching, Morneau, Hardy

By | at

The Orioles were right to extend Matt Wieters a qualifying offer even though the plan backfired, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNmidatlantic.com. Dubroff’s wish list for the club includes first baseman Chris Davis, a starting pitcher, and a quality outfielder. He doesn’t expect the club’s payroll to exceed $130MM to $140MM. With about $100MM committed to their current roster, the club has just enough money to pay Davis and one other substantial piece.

  • The three-year, $36MM contract signed by J.A. Happ serves to set the market floor for mid-tier starting pitchers, per Dubroff. Possible Orioles targets like Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, John Lackey, and Jeff Samardzija can expect to earn more than Happ. If the club retains the space to re-sign Davis, then they’re out on any of the top market starting pitchers.
  • Dubroff also looks at first basemen past Davis. Several like Chris Parmelee, Kelly Johnson, Travis Ishikawa, Mark Reynolds, and Steve Pearce have already appeared with the Orioles. None would represent a fan-inspiring signing. Should the club fall short on Davis, Dubroff suggests a one-year flyer on Justin Morneau as one alternative.
  • While Baltimore may look to free agency for additions, current players need to step up their game too, writes Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. In particular, J.J. Hardy, Chris Tillman, and Miguel Gonzalez are listed as three players in need of a rebound. Injuries have ruined Hardy’s last two seasons, especially at the plate. Tillman, once a promising pitching prospect, is coming off his worst season since 2011. Gonzalez is entering his age 32 season after posting career worst numbers across the board.

Central Notes: Cardinals, Samardzija, Cubs, Indians

By | at

Lance Lynn’s recent Tommy John surgery has the Cardinals hunting for starting pitching. While Lynn’s injury is unfortunate, the Cardinals’ need for pitching couldn’t be better timed, given the strong market for starters, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out. This winter’s market has everything: superstars like David Price and Zack Greinke, interesting high-upside pitchers like Jeff Samardzija and Kenta Maeda, reliable mid-rotation types like Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen, and potential post-Christmas signees like Yovani Gallardo and Doug Fister. Here’s more from the Central divisions.

  • The Cubs are interested in bringing back Samardzija, but the key to negotiations will be how much they value him compared to their other needs, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes. They need a top starter more than they need Samardzija, says Sullivan, and at some point, they’ll also need to have money left over to extend Jake Arrieta.
  • The Indians have a bit of depth that could help them withstand the departure of one of their young pitchers, and they could also look outside the organization for reinforcements if they make a trade. But they aren’t looking to deal Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar or Trevor Bauer unless they get obvious impact talent in return, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes.
  • The Indians have been in touch with free agent Shane Victorino, and whether they sign him or not, Victorino is the type of outfielder the team seems likely to acquire, writes Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. The Indians could probably sign Victorino to a one-year deal — a reasonable proposition for them, since they need outfield help in 2016 but have a number of potentially helpful outfielders in the minors (including Tyler Naquin and James Ramsey in the short term and Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer in the longer term) who could help in future seasons.

Epstein, Samardzija Meet In Chicago

By | at

Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein sat down last night with free agent righty Jeff Samardzija, according to a report from Phil Rogers of MLB.com (via Twitter). The former Cubs, Athletics, and White Sox hurler flew in from Arizona for the meeting, per Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com (Twitter links).

Chicago has previously been said to have at least some interest in bringing back Samardzija, who was with the organization from 2006 through the middle of 2014. After tantalizing with his promise for years, the 30-year-old emerged as a force with the Cubs in his last season with the team. Samardzija was traded away that summer after he and the club were unable to work out an extension, but there was never a sense that bridges were burned. (And the decision was eminently understandable: he was the key piece in a swap that returned Addison Russell as well as Billy McKinney.)

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote yesterday in breaking down Samardzija’s free agent case, the sturdy veteran still holds plenty of appeal after a rough 2015. He has the frame and track record to support an expectation of good health and a lot of innings. And scouts and executives are still enamored of his talent and toughness. Of course, signing Samardzija will require the sacrifice of a draft selection since he turned down the White Sox’ qualifying offer.

It’s not yet clear how serious the Cubs are in a reunion, but the team clearly needs pitching. Epstein and co. have frequently been connected to the very top arms available in free agency, but there are a number of avenues that the organization could take to building out its staff. Adding a durable arm with upside (like Samardzija) could certainly represent a component of the team’s strategy, possibly occurring along with the addition of another pitcher via trade or free agency. It is worth bearing in mind, though, that the club’s top baseball decisionmakers have suggested recently that multiple major free agent investments are somewhat unlikely, suggesting at least that there are some clear limits to the team’s spending plans this winter.

Free Agent Profile: Jeff Samardzija

By | at

After an offseason trade to the White Sox, Jeff Samardzija struggled through his worst season in four years as a starting pitcher.  He’ll still likely aim for a sizable multiyear contract in free agency.

Strengths/Pros

Samardzija is, first and foremost, a workhorse.  He tossed 647 1/3 regular season innings from 2013-15, sixth-most in baseball.  David Price is the only free agent with more during that span, and he only had eight additional innings.  Samardzija has never been on the disabled list and has never missed a start due to injury.  The 6’5″, 225 lb. righty seems built to last.

Aug 19, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija (29) pitches against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Samardzija has lower mileage on his arm than most of his fellow free agents, mainly because he spent a portion of his big league career as a reliever.  As a 31-year-old with no DL time, Samardzija has still only thrown 1502 pro innings.  Yovani Gallardo, who is a year younger than Samardzija, has 1901 innings.  Johnny Cueto and Scott Kazmir have mileage similar to Gallardo.  Ian Kennedy has 1590 2/3 innings, a total held down by 2009 shoulder surgery.  Jordan Zimmermann and Wei-Yin Chen have lower mileage than Samardzija, but both had Tommy John surgery.  Mike Leake, who recently turned 28, has 1115 career innings.

Samardzija has shown the ability to pitch at the front end of a rotation.  He was his team’s Opening Day starter in each of the past three seasons, and earned an All-Star nod in 2014.  That season, Samardzija posted a 2.99 ERA in 219 2/3 innings.  His 4.7 K/BB ratio ranked 14th among qualified starters.  He also brings the heat.  From 2012-15, Samardzija averaged 94.6 miles per hour on his fastball, second only to Stephen Strasburg among those with 600 innings.

Samardzija turned the corner with his control in 2014, walking only 1.8 batters per nine innings.  His 1.9 mark from 2014-15 ranks 15th among qualified starters, and many of those ranked above him are soft-tossers.  From 2012-14, Samardzija showed an elite combination of skills and durability, ranking eighth in MLB with a 3.35 SIERA for those with 600 or more innings.  During those three years, Samardzija was firmly operating in Jordan Zimmermann/Jon Lester territory.  That valuation was borne out when Samardzija (along with Jason Hammel) netted the Cubs Addison Russell and Billy McKinney in a trade with the Athletics.

Weaknesses/Cons

There’s no tiptoeing around the fact that 2015 was a very rough season for Samardzija.  He allowed the most hits and earned runs of any MLB starter, and he tied for the most home runs allowed in the AL.  In his four seasons as a starter, his 6.9 K/9 was easily a career worst, as were his 4.96 ERA, 1.22 HR/9, and 39% groundball rate.  In his 32 starts, he allowed five or more earned runs in 11 of them.  Samardzija had a stretch in August where he gave up 22 earned runs in three starts.  Zack Greinke didn’t give up his 22nd earned run until his 21st start of the season.  A childhood fan of the White Sox, Samardzija’s season on the south side of Chicago did not go as planned.

In four seasons as a starter, Samardzija has posted a 4.03 ERA over 822 innings, and his only campaign below 3.81 was 2014.  In each of the 2012, ’13, and ’15 seasons, Samardzija’s SIERA was significantly below his ERA.  What has caused the big righty to post higher-than-expected ERAs in three out of his four seasons as a starter?  Batting average on balls in play, home run per flyball rate, and issues pitching out of the stretch have all manifested in those three seasons, but none consistently.  His All-Star season, 2014, was the only one where all three of those factors were normal.  I asked SIERA creator Matt Swartz about this, and he concluded, “You have to figure he’s more likely to underperform his SIERA than the average pitcher, but nothing jumps out as a persistent problem.”

With the White Sox, Samardzija reduced the usage of his two-seam fastball in favor of the cutter, perhaps unsurprisingly.  That pitch change mix supports the narrative that Samardzija can be fixed.  On the other hand, why couldn’t Samardzija right the ship during the 2015 season?

Samardzija received and turned down a qualifying offer from the White Sox, so signing him requires draft pick forfeiture.  Teams with unprotected picks in the teens such as the Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Orioles could shy away.

Personal

Jeff Samardzija was born and raised in Merrillville, a town in Northwest Indiana.  Inspired by his older brother Sam, Jeff played football, baseball, and basketball at Valparaiso High School.  Tragically, Jeff lost his mother Debora during that time to a rare lung disease.  With his father and brother in mind, Jeff looked at colleges close to home and landed a football scholarship to Notre Dame.  Jeff was a star wide receiver for the Irish, but quietly pitched for the college’s baseball team as well.  A baseball teammate noted Jeff resembled the shark from Finding Nemo, giving him a nickname that stuck.  Since most teams thought he was destined for the NFL, Samardzija fell to the fifth round in the MLB draft in 2006.  Cubs GM Jim Hendry was a good friend of Samardzija’s baseball coach Paul Mainieri, who urged Hendry to draft the greatest athlete he’d ever coached.  Jeff agreed to a $250K deal with the Cubs, provided he could return to Notre Dame for his senior season.

After making seven appearances for Cubs minor league affiliates in Boise and Peoria, Samardzija had to decide whether to commit to the Cubs or enter the 2007 NFL draft as a potential first-round pick.  Samardzija surprised the Cubs by working out a five-year, $10MM deal to commit to baseball.  Samardzija ascended through the Cubs’ minor league system more because of his contract than due to success.  As an up-and-down reliever, Samardzija briefly kicked around a return to football in April 2010.  However, he had a decent year out of the Cubs’ pen in 2011, and then Theo Epstein’s regime took over the team’s front office.  Samardzija removed his distractions that offseason and told Epstein he wanted to be a starting pitcher.  He was awarded the Cubs’ fifth starter job out of camp in 2012, and his MLB career took off.

Market

We see Samardzija in a tier with Wei-Yin Chen and Mike Leake, a notch below David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, and Johnny Cueto.  Comparing Samardzija’s contract with Chen’s will offer an interesting data point on whether teams are really moving past ERA.  ERA makes Chen look better than Samardzija, yet Samardzija has a better reputation with the team executives to whom we’ve spoken, as well as superior skill-based stats.  For some teams, Samardzija offers a chance at a #2 type starter coming off a down year, resulting in a potential bargain.  Samardzija is an innings guy at worst, with the same high floor as Leake.  Leake, however, doesn’t offer the same ceiling.

Though the draft pick loss will be an issue for some, a potential list of suitors for Samardzija includes the Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Astros, Angels, Rangers, Marlins, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Padres, Dodgers, and Giants.  He could be a top choice for a team like the Tigers, who intend to add multiple starters and therefore may sit out the $100MM+ market.  Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry currently works for the Yankees (at least for now), so there’s an obvious connection with Shark.

Expected Contract

In June 2014, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reported Samardzija rejected a five-year extension offer from the Cubs worth slightly more than $85MM.  A few months prior, Homer Bailey had signed an extension with the Reds for six years and $105MM, and that comparable may have compelled Samardzija to turn down the Cubs.  The Cubs’ argument may have been that Bailey was younger than Samardzija, and that’s why he received a sixth year.  That same question still exists: is there a team willing to sign Samardzija through 2020, his age 35 season?  Given the list of teams above, as well as the pitcher’s durability, I think there will be enough suitors for Samardzija and his agents at Wasserman Media Group to get a fifth year on the open market.  A slightly lower average annual value could bolster that case – Samardzija may cost $16-17MM per year, as opposed to $20MM+ salaries for guys like Rick Porcello and, presumably, Zimmermann.  I’m predicting a five-year, $80MM deal for Samardzija.

2015 Qualifying Offer Decisions

By | at

The deadline or players to accept or reject their one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offers was today at 5pm ET. We already know that Colby Rasmus will become the first player to ever accept a qualifying offer, and Marco Estrada reached a two-year deal with the Blue Jays. Brett Anderson also accepted his qualifying offer from the Dodgers.

Here are the updates on the rest of the 20 players that received qualifying offers one week ago today…

  • Ian Desmond will reject the Nationals’ offer, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. He’ll be joined on the open market by Jordan Zimmermann, who did the same, per a tweet from MLB.com’s Bill Ladson.
  • While Brett Anderson will be returning on a one-year deal, Howie Kendrick and Zack Greinke have rejected their qualifying offers from the Dodgers, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links),
  • It’s an obvious one, but Alex Gordon will hit the open market rather than taking a one-year deal from the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Likewise, Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy of the Padres will participate in the open market his fall (per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, on Twitter) and Dexter Fowler has turned down his offer from the Cubs, as Paul Sullivan of 670thescore.com tweets.
  • The Cardinals will stand to pick up draft choices if Jason Heyward and John Lackey sign elsewhere, as they too have rejected the offer, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter).
  • Daniel Murphy and Jeff Samardzija have declined their offers, per reports from Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter) and Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com (also via Twitter).
  • Gallardo has declined his QO, Stevenson now tweets.
  • As expected, Hisashi Iwakuma has turned down the qualifying offer issued to him by the Mariners, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.

Earlier Updates

  • Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram hears differently on Gallardo, reporting that he’s still deciding whether or not to accept (links to Twitter). Gallardo’s camp has spoken to multiple other clubs about a deal, but the righty is still mulling a return to his hometown team.
  • Yovani Gallardo will decline the Rangers’ qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Gallardo never seemed likely to accept the deal, though there may have been a bit of temptation given the fact that Gallardo is a Fort Worth native. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that he spoke to Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt, and was told that he’s yet to officially inform the Rangers one way or the other (Twitter link).

Those who are unfamiliar with the process can refer to MLBTR’s explanation of the qualifying offer system for full details.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top