Julio Teheran Changes Agencies
Angels right-hander Julio Teheran has hired a new agent and will now be represented by Mato Sports Management moving forward, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. He’d previously been represented by Wasserman.
The 2020 season will be the first that Teheran, 29, plays with an organization other than the Braves. Atlanta paid him a $1MM buyout rather than exercising his $12MM club option for the upcoming season, making Teheran a free agent for the first time. He’d previously signed a six-year, $32.4MM contract extension back before he’d even accrued two full years of MLB service. Now, he’ll play the shortened 2020 season on a prorated $9MM salary after signing with the Angels back in December.
A consensus Top 5 prospect in all of MLB from 2011-12, Teheran has at times flashed brilliance but settled in as more of a mid-rotation arm. He posted a terrific 3.03 ERA and a strong 3.58 FIP in 406 2/3 frames from 2012-13 but has since logged a 3.90 ERA and 4.50 FIP in 927 1/3 innings since. Highly durable, Teheran has made 222 starts in seven seasons since cementing himself as a big league regular — an average of 31.7 starts per year with only 27 total days on the injured list in that time. He’s made at least 30 starts in each of his seven full MLB seasons.
In changing representation, Teheran will move to a smaller firm — albeit one with several still-notable clients. Avisail Garcia, Anibal Sanchez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Danny Santana and Cameron Maybin are among his new company’s clients. All of that can be seen in MLBTR’s Agency Database of more than 2,000 players, which has been updated to reflect Teheran’s switch. If you see any omissions or errors in need of corrections in the database, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Julio Teheran Dealing With Hamstring Tightness
FEBRUARY 26: Teheran indicated he doesn’t see much cause for concern; in fact, he’s hoping to be ready to get back on the mound by Sunday or Monday, Fletcher tweets.
FEBRUARY 25: Angels right-hander Julio Teheran won’t make his scheduled start Wednesday because of left hamstring tightness, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register was among those to report. Fortunately for the Angels and Teheran, an MRI came back negative.
Teheran appears to be OK, but this is still a situation worth monitoring for an Angels club that has dealt with an abundance of adversity in its rotation over the past couple years. Injuries have been a major problem of late for the club, evidenced in part by the fact that no Angel even threw 100 innings last season. Conversely, a lack of durability hasn’t been a problem for Teheran, whom the Angels signed to a one-year, $9MM contract in free agency.
The 29-year-old Teheran was a member of the Braves from 2011-19, a span in which he amassed 170-plus innings in seven seasons. Teheran didn’t turn into the front-line type of starter the Braves thought they had toward the beginning of his career, but he has nonetheless managed decent overall numbers. Most recently, he piled up 174 2/3 frames of 3.81 ERA/4.66 FIP ball with 8.35 K/9 and 4.28 BB/9 last year. The FIP doesn’t look appealing, but that particular statistic has never been bullish on Teheran, who has consistently found a way to outdo it in the ERA department. Teheran’s the owner of a lifetime 3.67 ERA – a number the Angels would surely sign up for in 2020. He’ll first have to get over this injury, though.
Angels Sign Julio Teheran
DECEMBER 21, 4:35PM: Teheran’s deal with the Angels is now official, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.
DECEMBER 19: The Angels and right-hander Julio Teheran have agreed to a one-year contract, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). Teheran will earn $9MM in the deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reports. Teheran is represented by the Wasserman agency.
After spending his first nine seasons in Atlanta, Teheran will now head west to join what the Angels hope will be a greatly improved pitching staff. Los Angeles has been linked to numerous top free agent starters, though their pitching acquisitions have thus far been more modest, between signing Teheran and trading four minor league pitchers to the Orioles for Dylan Bundy. While putting Teheran and Bundy behind Shohei Ohtani still represents an upgrade for the Halos, one suspects the Angels will still look to add a topline arm rather than count on Ohtani to be an ace in his first season back from Tommy John surgery.
Given the amount of pitching injuries the Angels have faced in recent years, Teheran’s durability is a big plus. The righty has averaged 191 innings per season from 2013-19, with only two minimal injured list stints (for a thumb contusion and a lat strain) in that span. While Teheran has two All-Star appearances to his name and looked for a time like he could become the ace of the Braves’ staff, his last three seasons have been more modest.
From 2017-19, Teheran has 3.3 total fWAR, a 4.09 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 1.99 K/BB rate over 538 2/3 frames. While he posted a 3.81 ERA in 2019, ERA predictors like FIP (4.66), xFIP (5.26), and SIERA (5.11) painted a much more dire picture of Teheran’s 2019 performance. He also posted a career-high 39.1% hard-hit ball rate, and he finished in the bottom tenth percentile of all qualified pitchers in fastball velocity, with only a 89.7mph average on his heater. (In more positive Statcast news, Teheran had above-average fastball spin and finished in the 84th percentile in terms of curveball spin.)
Given these less-than-impressive advanced metrics, it wasn’t entirely surprising that the Braves chose to buy out the final year of Teheran’s contract for $1MM rather than pay him a $12MM salary for 2020. (Teheran was playing on a six-year, $32.4MM extension signed prior to the 2014 season.) The one-year guarantee from L.A. was also less than the two-year, $18MM MLBTR projected for him at the outset of the offseason. The Teheran signing looks somewhat akin to the short-term signings of Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill that Angels GM Billy Eppler orchestrated last winter, though obviously Eppler will be hoping for much more than the near-minimal return Harvey and Cahill brought to the 2019 Angels.
With Teheran now in the fold, the Angels have a projected luxury tax payroll of just over $185.5MM, as per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. There’s still plenty of daylight between the Angels (who have never paid a tax penalty) and the $208MM luxury tax threshold, so Los Angeles has room to still make more additions to the pitching staff or the roster as a whole.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Braves Not Ruling Out Re-Signing Julio Teheran
Although the Braves bought out right-hander Julio Teheran‘s 2020 option on Monday, that doesn’t necessarily mean the two sides’ longstanding union is over. General manager Alex Anthopoulos indicated after letting Teheran go that he hasn’t slammed the door on signing the hurler to a new contract, per David O’Brien of The Athletic (subscription link).
“We’ll continue to stay in contact with him,” Anthopoulos said. “Obviously, he’ll have a chance now to test the market and talk to other teams. But I think there’s an openness on both sides to continue the relationship. So, we’ll see where that leads.”
While Teheran’s no longer the front-end starter he looked like earlier in his career, the two-time All-Star has at least been a productive source of innings throughout his MLB tenure. Teheran just turned in his seventh straight season with no fewer than 30 starts (33) or 170-plus frames (174 2/3). He pitched to an above-average 3.81 ERA along the way, but as has typically been the case, ERA indicators such as FIP (4.66), xFIP (5.26) and SIERA (5.11) were far less bullish. Teheran did strike out a career-high 8.35 batters per nine, but he also walked 4.28, continued to induce grounders at a less-than-stellar clip (39 percent), and saw his average fastball velocity drop to a personal-low 89.7 mph. Those are just some of the red flags that may have scared off the Braves, who turned down paying Teheran $12MM for next season in favor of a $1MM buyout.
Now that he’s on the free-agent market, Teheran – who still has one more season left in his 20s – has a chance to score an overall larger guarantee than the one the Braves rejected. MLBTR regards Teheran as one of a few starters who could secure a pact in the $18MM range over two years.
Anthopoulos’ words aside, it obviously looks doubtful Atlanta will end up as the team to hand Teheran his next deal. The Braves instead appear poised to redirect some of what would have been Teheran’s money in an effort to reel in a bigger fish, as they’ll go after “a front-line starter” to join the returning trio of Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz, O’Brien writes.
Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg are hands down the top unsigned starters in the sport, but both seem like unrealistic targets for Atlanta. Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jake Odorizzi, Dallas Keuchel (a Brave in 2019) and Cole Hamels are among the best of the rest, and no one there will rival Cole or Strasburg in earning power. However, it’s up for debate how many of them are legitimate rotation headliners at this point. The Braves could also explore the trade market, where the Tigers’ Matthew Boyd (an ATL target over the summer) and the Indians’ Corey Kluber are among those who may be rumor mill regulars this winter.
Braves Decline Options Over Teheran, Hamilton; Issue Qualifying Offer To Josh Donaldson
The Braves announced today that they have declined options over righty Julio Teheran and center fielder Billy Hamilton. In other news, the club made a qualifying offer to third baseman Josh Donaldson.
In Teheran’s case — the most interesting one of the three — the club will pay a $1MM buyout rather than picking up the option at $12MM. It isn’t entirely surprising to see that the Braves are ready to move on from the long-time rotation stalwart, but it had been possible to imagine the team exercising the option and then trading him.
Teheran has never been the ace that some once expected him to be. But he has generally been quite effective, with a 3.67 lifetime ERA and sub-4.00 marks in each of the past two campaigns. And Teheran has been freakishly durable, scarcely missing a single outing and averaging 191 innings since his first full season in 2013.
It’s debatable just how much interest Teheran will draw on the open market. But it’s plenty possible to imagine teams considering multi-year offers. Beyond his excellent health record, Teheran is still just 28 years of age.
As for Hamilton, claimed off waivers in August, there was never any chance his mutual option would be exercised by the team at a $7.5MM price tag. He’ll take a $1MM buyout with him as he goes back onto the open market.
It was equally obvious that Donaldson would receive the $17.8MM qualifying offer at $17.8MM. The Braves paid him more than that for one season already and got everything they bargained for. There’s no question Donaldson will turn down the offer and take to free agency.
Julio Teheran Replaces Chris Martin On Braves’ NLDS Roster
Right-hander Julio Teheran will replace injured reliever Chris Martin on the Braves’ postseason roster, the team announced Friday morning. Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets that with Teheran now on board, he’ll likely draw the starting nod in a theoretical Game 4, with lefty Max Fried continuing on as a relief option for the rest of the series.
Martin didn’t throw a pitch in last night’s contest, as he sustained an oblique strain when coming out of the ‘pen to begin the eighth inning. At the time, Atlanta held a 3-1 lead but quickly saw things unravel when right-handers Luke Jackson and Mark Melancon combined to surrender six earned runs while recording a collective total of five outs. Despite a pair of ninth-inning homers from Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman, the Braves were left stunned by a 7-6 loss at the hands of the NL Central champion Cardinals.
Fried had been tentatively lined up to start Game 4, if necessary, after being available out of the ‘pen in the first couple games of the series. He tossed 14 pitches and picked up two strikeouts in a flawless inning of relief yesterday, and if he’s going to be reserved for a bullpen role for the remainder of the NLDS, it stands to reason that he’ll be more available for multi-inning work now as well.
Martin’s injury, meanwhile, likely brings an end to his time with the Braves. While Atlanta could re-sign him, he’s a free agent at season’s end and will also have the opportunity to explore offers from other clubs. Acquired on July 30 in a trade that sent pitching prospect Kolby Allard to the Rangers, the 33-year-old Martin logged a 4.08 ERA and a sensational 22-to-1 K/BB ratio in 17 2/3 innings with the Braves.
The unfortunate injury also gives the 28-year-old Teheran what could be one final opportunity to pitch in a Braves uniform. While he’s controlled for the 2020 season via a $12MM club option ($1MM buyout), there’s no guarantee that the Braves opt to exercise that clause. (MLBTR readers weighed in on the subject last night and were evenly split when polled about his future.) In 174 2/3 innings this season, Teheran pitched to a 3.81 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9 and a 39 percent ground-ball rate. Those are solid enough numbers, but Teheran’s walk rate has risen significantly over the past two seasons while his velocity has dropped (career-low 89.7 mph average fastball in ’19).
Braves’ Chris Martin Likely Out For Rest Of Postseason
10:59pm: Atlanta’s “likely” to replace Martin with Teheran, per Bowman.
9:20pm: The Braves lost Game 1 after a bullpen implosion, and it appears they’ll have to go the rest of the playoffs without Martin. Expectations are he’s done for the postseason, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. It’s not known yet who will replace Martin on Atlanta’s roster.
7:22pm: As of this writing, Atlanta’s bullpen just blew a late lead over St. Louis in the first game of the National League Division Series. The two teams are heading to the bottom of the eighth inning tied at three. The Braves had a 3-1 advantage entering the top of the frame, which turned into a catastrophe for the club. It began when right-hander Chris Martin, whom the Braves initially called on to preserve the lead, exited with tightness in his left oblique, Mark Bowman of MLB.com was among those to report.
Martin left prior to throwing a pitch, leading the Braves to turn to righty Luke Jackson, who struggled over two-thirds of an inning before they pulled him. His replacement, Mark Melancon, also failed to get the job done.
Considering oblique injuries often require absences of at least a few weeks, it seems possible Martin won’t pitch again this season. That would be an awful development for the Braves, who acquired Martin in July with the hope he’d carry his impressive first few months with Texas to Atlanta. It turns out the 33-year-old hasn’t been quite as effective as a Brave, as his ERA has climbed a full run from 3.08 to 4.08, though he did end the regular season in excellent fashion. Martin threw 5 1/3 innings of two-hit ball with no walks and eight strikeouts in September.
Between his two teams this year, Martin posted a fantastic 65 strikeouts against five free passes over 55 2/3 innings. Martin will try to parlay that production into a nice payday when he reaches free agency after the season. In the meantime, the Braves can ill afford to lose him as they attempt to push for a World Series. If Martin is in for a lengthy absence, though, they may end up having to call on one of Julio Teheran, Anthony Swarzak, Jerry Blevins, Kyle Wright or Bryse Wilson – all of whom were left off their NLDS roster.
MLBTR Poll: Julio Teheran’s Option
The Braves are currently licking their wounds after collapsing in the first game of their National League Division Series matchup against the Cardinals on Thursday. Before the series began, Atlanta made the decision to leave right-hander Julio Teheran off its roster in order to deepen its bench. It wasn’t long ago that keeping Teheran out of a playoff series would have been unthinkable for the Braves, as he was once among the crown jewels of the franchise. In fact, during his first two full seasons (2013-14), Teheran notched 63 starts and 406 2/3 innings of 3.03 ERA/3.58 FIP ball with 7.88 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9. Prior to the second of those seasons, the Braves locked up Teheran to an extension worth a guaranteed $32.4MM over six years. At the time, it was the second-largest pact given to a pitcher with just two years’ service time.
Now 28, Teheran has hung with the Braves through the entirety of his deal, though he hasn’t been able to deliver the results he did during his early career coming-out party. Now, it’s possible he’s just about at the end of the line as a Brave. After the season concludes, the Braves will have a call to make on whether to exercise the $12MM club option for 2020 that they included in Teheran’s contract. They could pick it up with the goal of retaining Teheran, exercise it and try to trade him or decline it in favor of a $1MM buyout.
A one-year, $12MM gamble on Teheran wouldn’t look wholly unappealing for the Braves or anyone else. In Atlanta’s case, the club will head into the offseason with only Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz looking sure to return from this year’s staff (Game 1 NLDS starter Dallas Keuchel is a pending free agent). The team could also explore free agency and trades for other possible solutions and-or turn to young arms like Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Kyle Muller sometime in 2020. That foursome has little to no major league experience under its belt, though. Wright and Wilson have struggled over a small sample of MLB innings, while Anderson and Muller have not debuted yet.
If nothing else, Teheran has shown a consistent ability to eat innings. He’s fresh off his seventh consecutive regular season of 30-plus starts. Moreover, in 2019, Teheran continued an annual trend of yielding a low batting average on balls in play (.266), recording a solid home run-to-fly ball rate (11.2 percent) and outproducing his fielding-independent numbers. Across a team-high 174 2/3 innings, he managed a 3.81 ERA despite a far less appealing 4.66 FIP, 5.26 xFIP and 5.11 SIERA. While Teheran added a career-high 8.35 strikeouts per nine innings, he also turned in his second-largest walk rate (4.28 BB/9), once again induced few ground balls (39 percent), logged an all-time low swinging-strike percentage (9.2) and averaged a personal-worst 89.7 mph on his four-seam fastball – the pitch he relies on most.
Teheran clearly has his flaws, but that doesn’t mean the Braves will move on from him. It also doesn’t mean he’ll wind up making zero contributions this postseason (he could get back on their roster immediately as a result of Chris Martin‘s oblique injury). Atlanta obviously has greater priorities right now than worrying about Teheran’s future, but once the Braves’ season ends, what do you think they’ll do with him?
(Poll link for app users)
Predict Julio Teheran's offseason fate
-
ATL will exercise option with the intention of keeping him 34% (1,288)
-
ATL will exercise option and shop him 33% (1,247)
-
He'll become a free agent 33% (1,236)
Total votes: 3,771
Braves Leave Julio Teheran Off NLDS Roster
TODAY: The Braves have formally announced the full roster. In addition to the moves previously announced, the club nailed down a few other spots. Darren O’Day and Josh Tomlin got the nod in the bullpen over other options that included Julio Teheran, Anthony Swarzak, Jerry Blevins, Kyle Wright, and Bryse Wilson.
YESTERDAY: Braves manager Brian Snitker announced today that the team has decided not to carry Julio Teheran on its roster for the National League Divisional Series. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman was among those to cover (Twitter links). The action gets underway tomorrow, with the Braves squaring off against the NL Central-champion Cardinals.
The Atlanta organization elected not to carry an extra starter, preferring instead to operate with a deeper bench. Left-handed-hitting outfielder Rafael Ortega got the surprise nod for that spot, with Austin Riley also being left out of the picture. Veteran righty Josh Tomlin nabbed a final bullpen spot.
While the Braves did not formally release a full roster list, we can surmise the remainder of the picture:
Right-handed pitchers
- Mike Foltynewicz (game 2 starter)
- Shane Greene
- Luke Jackson
- Chris Martin
- Mark Melancon
- Mike Soroka (game 3 starter)
- Josh Tomlin
- Darren O’Day
Left-handed pitchers
- Dallas Keuchel (game 1 starter)
- Max Fried
- Sean Newcomb
Catchers
Infielders
Outfielders
Snitker indicated that the team decided to carry an extra bench piece in large part because of the absences of Charlie Culberson, Johan Camargo, and Ender Inciarte, who might’ve been entrusted to broader roles. That pushed Teheran out of the picture, leaving Fried as the fourth starter if one is needed.
There’s clearly a real possibility that Teheran’s last appearance in a Braves uniform was his final one. He could still be called upon if the Braves advance to the NLCS and have slightly different needs. And it’s still plenty possible that the organization will elect to pick up Teheran’s $12MM option for 2020 — even if only to trade him on to another club.
It’s also potentially telling to see Riley left home in favor of Ortega. There’s little question Riley has a future in the organization; the latter was chosen primarily because he’s a left-handed hitter who balances out the options for Snitker. But it’s still notable that Riley wasn’t able to push his way into the postseason plans. It remains to be seen whether the Braves will enter the offseason planning to hand the third base (or a corner outfield) job to Riley for 2020.
Quick Hits: Angels, Giants, Braves
GM Billy Eppler reiterated the Angels’ plan to build upon the growth of their farm system in 2018, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. The plan is clear: build a Top-5 system, and then use their financial muscle to supplement (Fangraphs pegs their current farm as the 12th most valuable system in the league). The Angels aren’t out on all trade candidates, however, as Eppler makes an important distinction in stating that they haven’t traded anyone “impactful” from their farm. Deals that don’t require surrendering top prospects remain theoretically in play, though such a strategy likely won’t yield any of the sexier names being bandied about these winter meetings, such as Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer or J.T. Realmuto. Fletcher suggests Sonny Gray, Francisco Cervelli and Julio Teheran as the types of trade targets that might be within their reach. These types of targets are likely better fits for their financial outlook as well.
- Behind the leadership of President of Baseball Ops Farhan Zaidi, the San Francisco Giants will open their playbook to more modern pitching strategies next season, per Kerry Crowley of the Mercury News. A staff comprised of injury-prone veterans like Jeff Samardzija and up-and-comers potentially on innings limits (Dereck Rodriguez, Andrew Suarez) may lead manager Bruce Bochy to employ the Opener strategy or, as Zaidi puts it, “different forms of pitching staff constructions” in 2019. Bochy is a noted traditionalist in the dugout, but in lieu of finding five starters capable of pitching 200 innings, he and Zaidi will be forced to adapt by building a pitching strategy tailored to their current personnel. The Giants may still add to their stable of arms, but outfield is far-and-away the winter priority at this time, and they feel pretty good about where how the bullpen is currently constructed. That said, there has been considerably trade interest in Will Smith and Tony Watson, so the near-term outlook could change if a can’t-miss deal presents itself. Thus far, Zaidi is adhering to a patient approach in his first winter at the helm, which makes sense given the financial and talent makeup of the San Francisco roster.
- The Braves lost out to division rival Philadelphia in the bidding for Andrew McCutchen, though Atlanta was never a serious contender once the price rose to include a third season, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. GM Alex Anthopoulos is perfectly content to wait until the new year before making any more additions, should that be what the market dictates. In the case of McCutchen, for instance, the Braves viewed the former Pirates outfielder as comparable to Carlos Gonzalez or Nick Markakis – corner bats that add value when secured on a shorter-term deal. They’ve vetted most outfielders available, and a bigger name like Michael Brantley is still in play for Atlanta, but the Braves aren’t eager to overpay for expediency at this stage of the winter. This mirrors the situation they faced earlier in the winter when they looked into possibly acquiring J.T. Realmuto. After feeling like the Marlins wouldn’t deal within the division, they moved on to free agent target Brian McCann. While the intra-division embargo seems to have passed, the Braves will not be reengaging the Marlins, as they secured a catching tandem they like, in McCann and Tyler Flowers, at a price they like.