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Astros Rotation Status

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The Astros have lots on their plate after a difficult couple of weeks in the public eye, but they have on-field issues at hand as well. Now that the manager and GM are in place, the focus can soon return to the field. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke make for an enviable top of the rotation, but there’s uncertainty beyond their veteran aces, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart.

Lance McCullers Jr. will return from elbow surgery to man the third spot in the rotation, and after his strong performance in the postseason, Jose Urquidy has a good chance of claiming one of the two remaining slots. But with a new GM and manager stepping in, there’s a potential clean slate working against the otherwise favored.

A host of candidates are on hand to push Urquidy and contend for the final rotation role. Brad Peacock and Austin Pruitt are the veterans with rotation experience on hand, with either one capable of taking turns in the rotation.

Beyond the vets, there are a host of young arms capable of proving their readiness and stepping into the rotation. Josh James, Bryan Abreu, Framber Valdez, Forrest Whitley, Austin Pruitt, Cy Sneed and Francis Martes. There’s more at stake in this arms race, as there are three to four bullpen spots available for those left out of the dugout.

Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander Named Cy Young Winners

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6:28pm: The BBWAA announced a slight correction in the NL voting (Twitter link), revealing that Ryu finished in second place alone — not in a tie with Scherzer, who is alone in third place. Flaherty is now alone in fourth place as well, with Strasburg landing fifth.

5:56pm: Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom and Astros righty Justin Verlander have been named the Cy Young Award winners in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced Wednesday (click for voting breakdowns in the National League and American League).

It’s the second consecutive Cy Young win for deGrom, who has cemented himself among the elite arms of the generation. The 31-year-old deGrom received 29 of a possible 30 first-place votes, with the Dodgers’ Hyun-Jin Ryu receiving the lone other first-place vote. Ryu, who narrowly topped deGrom for the NL ERA title but tossed 22 fewer innings, finished in a second-place tie with Max Scherzer. Stephen Strasburg and Jack Flaherty, meanwhile, were only slightly behind that pair in a fourth-place tie of their own. Mike Soroka, Sonny Gray, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Kirby Yates and Patrick Corbin all received votes and appeared further down the ballot.

Tossing 200 innings is an increasingly rare feat in today’s era of bullpen dominance, but deGrom delivered his third straight year of 200-plus frames, finishing with 204 innings of 2.43 ERA ball. His 2.67 FIP largely supported that excellent ERA, and deGrom was once again masterful in terms of overall strikeout percentage (31.7 percent) and walk percentage (5.5 percent). The right-hander, to this point, hasn’t given the Mets any reason to second-guess the four-year, $120.5MM contract extension they awarded him prior to the 2019 campaign. That pact ensured that deGrom will be a fixture on the starting staff for years to come, and he’ll join Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Marcus Stroman in a formidable top four in 2020 as the Mets look to reload and once again take aim at a postseason berth.

Verlander, 36, narrowly edged out teammate Gerrit Cole but managed to secure his second career Cy Young win. No pitcher outside of Verlander or Cole received a first- or second-place vote, but Verlander’s 17 first-place votes won the day. Rays star Charlie Morton received the bulk of the third-place votes (18) and came in third place on the ballot, while Cleveland’s Shane Bieber received 10 third-place votes and finished fourth in voting. Lance Lynn parlayed his brilliant rebound campaign into a fifth-place finish, while Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito and Mike Minor rounded out the ballot (in that order).

Verlander led the Majors with 223 innings pitched and finished second in the game in strikeout percentage (35.4 percent), trailing only Cole (39.9 percent) in that regard. Verlander’s 2.58 ERA was slightly higher than Cole’s 2.50 mark, and his FIP (3.27) was a good margin higher than that of Cole (2.64). But Verlander yielded fewer walks in more innings pitched, started one more game than Cole and finished the year with 21 victories to Cole’s 20. The two were widely expected to crush the rest of the field in a tightly contested race and did just that. Verlander would have been a free agent alongside Cole were it not for the two-year, $66MM extension he signed over the winter. He’ll instead join Zack Greinke atop the Houston rotation for the next couple of seasons as he seeks to add a third trophy to his Cooperstown case.

World Series Notes: Altuve, Astros, Nationals, Pressly

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Somewhere in the concourse beyond Minute Maid Park, there lies a stretch of concrete that will one day be the site of a statue in honor of Astros infielder Jose Altuve. Saturday night’s 9th inning saw the diminutive second baseman launch a towering shot into the night air of a tied elimination game in the American League Championship Series, sealing with one swing his place in postseason lore.

But Altuve’s ascension to Game 6 October glory is an unlikely development. While this seems like a pat statement at first glance–perhaps referring, as observers often do, to Altuve’s small, 5’6 frame–the truly unlikely thing about Altuve’s story concerns a nascent failure in his native Venezuela. As Alex Putterman’s 2017 story for The Atlantic explained, Altuve was cut by the Astros after appearing as a teenager in a club tryout camp because the organization considered him too short. At the behest of his father, Altuve returned to tryout for the club again, where he ultimately showed enough to earn a $15,000 signing bonus from Houston officials–hardly a considerable sum in an international signing landscape where seven-figure deals often grab headlines stateside. While a recap of Altuve’s many career exploits following that signing would be redundant at this point, tonight seems a fitting occasion to remember that tonight’s hero achieved his place in history due, in part, to familial encouragement and a little bit of old-fashioned determination. Apparently, even the tiniest of prospects can develop into statues, given the right conditions.

Looking onward to the 115th World Series, beginning play on Tuesday evening…

  • With champagne still raining in the Houston locker room, it’s obviously a bit early to talk pitching matchups–but that didn’t stop Nationals beat writer Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post from giving it a shot (link). As Dougherty sees it, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole should square off in Game 1, Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander could conceivably follow in the second game, and Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke project as the matchup for Game 3. For their careers, those six pitchers have combined for 269.3 bWAR. Cole, as has been stated ad nauseam this postseason, is slated for free agency this winter, and Strasburg could follow should he decline the remaining four years and $100MM sitting on the other side of his contractual opt-out.
  • Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle shares that reliever Ryan Pressly had some “scar tissue in his knee [break] off” during his third-inning appearance of Game 6 of the ALCS (link). Said scar tissue is, presumably, the result of surgery Pressly underwent in August to address soreness in his right knee joint. Pressly intimated to Rome that he will be “ready to go” for the World Series. If the pitching lineup Astros manager AJ Hinch used in the ALCS is any indication, then Pressly’s services would be especially vital in Game 4, which could be a bullpen game for the ’Stros. Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington shares that Hinch said in his postgame presser that he is “expecting” Pressly to be ready for World Series action (link).

Pitcher Notes: Pressly, Verlander, Pivetta

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All-Star Astros relief ace Ryan Pressly underwent surgery on his right knee Friday, but the right-hander is determined to make it back to action before the end of the season, as detailed in a piece from Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. “It’s always frustrating when you miss time, rather it being in Spring Training or offseason, or even now,” Pressly said. “Stuff like this happens. It’s a baseball injury and you just have to figure out a way to get back as fast as you can.”

Pressly had already missed time with a knee injury this summer, so Astros fans are surely hoping that this direct address of the hurler’s nagging injury will get him ready for the postseason. Statistically speaking, there’s basically nothing to dislike about Pressly’s 2019 output. With a 2.50 ERA, 11.62 K/9 rate,  and SwStr% exceeding 17% in 50.1 innings this year, Pressly should give October opposition another thing to fear aside from the Stros’ vaunted starting trio of Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke, and Justin Verlander.

More notes on pitching from around the game of baseball…

  • Speaking of Verlander, Chris Thomas of the Detroit Free Press has details on a recent, bizarre incident in Houston involving the veteran pitcher and journalist Anthony Fenech. In a possible violation of the MLB’s collective bargaining agreement, the Astros denied clubhouse access to Fenech (a Detroit Free Press writer) this week, after being requested to do so by Verlander. As Thomas’ report lays out, Verlander is apparently still sour over several perceived violations on his privacy by Fenech during the pitcher’s days in Detroit, including Fenech’s tweeting of a private, astronomy-centric conversation between Verlander and Al Kaline in 2017. Obviously, readers should bear in mind that this Free Press article is likely to advocate for an employee facing possibly unfair public scrutiny, but it does offer interesting insight into the fiery, vigilant personality that Verlander employs both on and off the mound.
  • 26-year-old righty Nick Pivetta has been sent to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, courtesy of a Phillies organization that has watched him struggle to a 5.38 ERA in 88.2 innings in 2019. Pivetta, long touted as a potential breakout candidate due to his bat-missing abilities, has been particularly stung by the long ball this year, as 22.4% of flyballs against him have left the yard. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports paraphrases manager Gabe Kapler as having said that Pivetta needs to use this demotion to “look in (the) mirror and show more accountability” (link).

Health Notes: Kershaw, Perez, Johnson

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Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw may not be all that far from returning to the MLB mound, but he has a few more steps to take. As Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter, the star hurler could soon be cleared for a minor-league rehab assignment — if he’s able to complete a live BP session tomorrow without incident. Supposing things go well and Kershaw is ready to resume competitive action next week, he’ll still need to build up his pitch count before returning to the Dodgers roster. It’s not yet clear how many rehab starts he’d need before being activated.

More health notes from around the game …

  • The Tigers announced Friday that pitching prospect Franklin Perez will miss the first four to six weeks of the season due to tendinitis in his right shoulder. He’ll rehab at the team’s spring facility in Lakeland, Fla. for the time being. The shoulder tendinitis is the latest health-related setback for 21-year-old, who also missed most of the 2018 campaign with lat and shoulder issues. Perez, who threw just 19 1/3 innings last seasons, was one of the key pieces Detroit received from the Astros in the 2017 blockbuster that sent Justin Verlander to Houston. Considered at the time of that deal to be one of baseball’s premier minor league arms, Perez has seen his prospect star dim as injuries have prevented him from taking the hill. Fortunately for the Tigers, he’s still quite young and has ample time to develop, but the ongoing arm issues are a troubling trend.
  • There’s an even tougher diagnosis for Marlins prospect Osiris Johnson, as Wells Dusenbery of the Sun Sentinel reports on Twitter. The youngster appears to be sidelined for all of the 2019 season after undergoing surgery for a right tibial stress fracture. Taken in the second round of last year’s draft, the shortstop is considered a high-risk, high-upside talent. He turned in good results at the Rookie level but stumbled in a late promotion to the Class A level. This was to be an important year of development for Johnson, who only turned 18 last October.

Astros Extend Justin Verlander

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SUNDAY: Houston has announced the extension.

SATURDAY: The Astros have reached an agreement with right-hander Justin Verlander on a two-year, $66MM extension, Mark Berman of FOX 26 Houston reports. The deal will keep Verlander, a client of ISE Baseball, in Houston through the 2021 season.

It has been a remarkable few seasons for Verlander, who’s set to complete the final season of a five-year, $140MM extension signed prior to the ’13 campaign. Lagging velocity and some health issues led to messy 2014 and 2015 seasons, but Verlander recovered admirably, finishing out his Tigers tenure in good form before being shipped to the ’Stros.

Verlander has now reached his 36th birthday, but you wouldn’t know it from the way he pitched last year. Over 214 frames, he worked to a 2.52 ERA with 12.2 K/9 against just 1.6 BB/9. And it wasn’t just the work of a crafty veteran who somehow managed to squeeze out one last good season from what was left of his stuff. Verlander averaged over 95 mph with his dominating fastball and jumped to a 14.5% swinging-strike rate — easily the highest mark of his storied career.

There’s an argument to be made that Verlander was never better than in 2018. He didn’t tally the same volume of great innings that he did in the vintage seasons of his youth, but Verlander’s insane 30.4% K%-BB% was nearly twice his career average. That level of unadulterated dominance is typically reserved for elite late-inning relievers who mostly unleash their arsenal in one-inning bursts. Statcast actually felt that Verlander was unlucky to permit opposing batters a paltry .260 wOBA. The contact they made against him was so weak that the advanced system credited those hitters with a .236 xwOBA.

Locking up Verlander – the third in a series of late-spring Astros extensions – brings at least some degree of clarity to a future rotation mix that seemed hazy at best. With both Verlander and Gerrit Cole set to hit the market after the upcoming campaign, and emerging frontliner Lance McCullers Jr. on the shelf until at least Opening Day 2020, Houston’s level of concern vis-á-vis the top end of the rotation had reached urgent heights. Collin McHugh was lassoed back from the bullpen, but none of the club’s glut of emerging arms – Cionel Perez, Framber Valdez, Josh James, Forrest Whitley, Corbin Martin, and J.B. Bukauskas among them – would likely be prepared to lead a staff in the upcoming seasons, especially one with designs on another AL crown.

The club still has more to work to do, of course (old friend Dallas Keuchel is still out there), but with just $108MM on the 2020 books even with the extensions divvied to Verlander, Alex Bregman, and Ryan Pressly, there should be plenty of room with which to maneuver. A Cole deal seems further off, and riskier still given his third-starter track record in the two seasons prior to ’18, but the club’s tech-blazed path to improvement with so many of its hurlers, centered on bolstering spin rates with pitches both fast and slow, should certainly be a mark in its favor. Houston, under Jeff Luhnow, has always been loath to part from the cream of its crop, so a high-profile trade for a top-end arm wouldn’t seem to be in the cards.

Regardless, with ace now in tow, the Astros have widened their window considerably. In addition to Cole, only George Springer, among the team’s stars, is set to hit the open market between now and when Verlander’s contract expires at the end of 2021, and the team has its floodgates set wide open in hopes that another homegrown star or two will wash ashore.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report the two sides were “moving toward” an extension (via Twitter). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first with the proposed figures (Twitter link). Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole Extension Possibilities

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4:27pm: Owner Jim Crane acknowledged that there are talks with at least some realistic possibility of a deal, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports on Twitter.

“I don’t think anything is final, but if it’s going to get done it’s going to get done before we get out of here,” said Crane in reference to the conclusion of spring camp.

3:17pm: Cole seems to have snuffed out any possibility of a deal coming together in his case. He says “there have been no contract negotiations,” as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports.

The hurler indicated some displeasure with the situation. He tells Rome that the team asked, and he gave permission to hold a discussion with agent Scott Boras. But there was never any talk beyond that per Cole, who says “this seems more like a phone call negotiation involving the media than anyone else.”

2:50pm: The Astros are currently discussing potential extension scenarios with both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole — a development that The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal downplayed even as he reported it earlier today. In a follow-up tweet, though, Rosenthal says that deal with Verlander “is at least possible.”

That characterization seems to nudge up the likelihood of a deal. The plausibility is boosted further by the fact that Rosenthal puts out some numbers. It seems there’s some discussion and potential for a two-year extension worth over $60MM.

Verlander will turn 37 years of age before he throws a competitive pitch in the 2020 season. At that phase of a player’s career, lengthy commitments generally can’t be achieved. We’ve seen hefty two-year deals for superior performers, though not at the kind of top-of-the-market rates that seem to be under contemplation here.

It’s hard to argue that Verlander is worthy anything less than top dollar. He has been fantastic since landing in Houston late in the 2017 season, throwing 248 innings in 39 starts and compiling a 2.32 ERA with 12.1 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. Even for a pitcher as great as Verlander, that’s a dizzying level of output.

Verlander has indicated that he’d like to keep pitching well into his forties. For now, he’ll have to decide whether to lock in two more years in Houston or instead wait to see what the open market offers next winter. As for the Astros, Rosenthal suggests they may need to dangle something approaching the current record average annual value for a starter (Zack Greinke’s $34.4MM) to secure a deal.

Extension Rumors: Cole, Verlander, Red Sox, Castellanos

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The Astros are currently discussing extensions with starters Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required), though a deal with either seems unlikely. Rosenthal notes that the Astros may not be keen on paying market price for a multi-year extension with Verlander when that deal would begin in his age-37 season. Cole, meanwhile, is a Scott Boras client and thus likelier to test the free-agent market. Boras’ most recent extension for a starting pitcher was Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg, who (like Cole) was in his walk year when he signed a $175MM guarantee on a seven-year deal beginning in his age-28 season. Cole is in his age-28 season right now, so he’d be a year older than Strasburg at the time of a theoretical extension, but he’s also been more durable, reaching 200 innings in three of the past four seasons. Rosenthal makes a slightly less-aggressive comp than that, pointing out that Cole will reach free agency at the same age as Patrick Corbin and with better career stats. Corbin agreed to a six-year deal worth $140MM with the Nats this winter.

Since it’s officially “Extension Season” — as MLBTR’s Extension Tracker shows, there have been a virtually unprecedented 16 extension agreements during Spring Training — here’s more extension chatter from around the game…

  • Rob Bradford of WEEI spoke to J.D. Martinez about the opt-out clause in his contract with the Red Sox at the end of the season. Martinez, who can opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his current deal, said there haven’t been any discussions about an extension or a restructuring of the contract to this point. Unlike last summer, however, he at least left open a slight window for in-season talks in his most recent interview with Bradford. Martinez has an opt-out after the third year of his contract as well, at which point there’d be two years and $38.75MM remaining on the deal.
  • Red Sox left fielder Andrew Benintendi was drafted five spot behind Alex Bregman and reached the Majors barely a week after the Astros’ third baseman, but Benintendi tells Bradford that his those similarities didn’t make him take particular note of Bregman’s $100MM extension. Rather, the 24-year-old Benintendi says it’s “fun to watch all these guys sign some deals” in a nod to the bevy of extensions throughout MLB. Benintendi and his reps have not discussed an extension with the Sox this winter, though he tells Bradford that he would “definitely” listen if the Sox initiated talks.
  • MLB Network’s Jon Heyman spoke to Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski about the team’s current slate of extension candidates (all links to Twitter). While it’s common for players to place Opening Day deadlines on extension talks, Dombrowski somewhat unusually took a similar stance. “We’re focused on winning this year,” he said. “…Unless something unexpected happens, we’re not going to do anything once the season starts.” Heyman notes that Xander Bogaerts, specifically, has stated an aversion to in-season negotiating. Regarding Martinez, Dombrowski merely stated that the Sox are “hopeful” he won’t opt out of his contract.
  • The Tigers “haven’t engaged in any kind of [extension] conversations” with Nicholas Castellanos this spring, GM Al Avila told MLB.com’s Jason Beck yesterday. There’s been no formal offer or even any formal discussions on the matter with Castellanos’ agent, according to Avila, though he said the possibility of a deal is “obviously… in our minds.” Castellanos has expressed a desire to remain in Detroit on a long-term deal, though the rebuilding Tigers will undoubtedly view him as a possible trade asset this summer as well. If the two sides can eventually find a common ground in terms of price, however, Avila said he wouldn’t rule out an in-season extension. “He hasn’t said anything to the contrary,” Avila said of Castellanos being willing to negotiate beyond Opening Day. “I think he would be open to it.”

West Notes: Verlander, Kershaw, Rangers

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Astros righty Justin Verlander chatted yesterday about his pending free agency with Jon Heyman of MLB Network (all links to Twitter). While he’s keeping an open door to remaining in Houston, it doesn’t sound as if there’s any expectation of reaching a deal this spring. Verlander, who’s still at the top of his game at 36 years of age, reiterated his previously stated intention to pitch well into his forties. That expectation won’t lead him to chase the longest-possible guarantee in free agency, though. Having already secured career earnings in the hundreds of millions of dollars, Verlander says he’ll prioritize annual salary and other considerations while remaining “cognizant” of how his contract fits in the larger market picture. Further to that point, the veteran notes that big deals for this winter’s very best free agents have tended to mask the down-market struggles and number of teams that are not seeking to compete.

More from the western divisions …

  • Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw threw to a catcher today from flat ground, J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group reports in a series of tweets. That still counts as notable progress for the vaunted hurler, who also long-tossed and does not seem to have reported any issues. Shoulder issues have slowed Kershaw thus far in camp, but he has seemed to be on the upswing of late. Filling in for him early on shouldn’t be a problem for a Dodgers club that has a deep staff to call upon, but the early health issues are of greater concern given the recent history. Kershaw, who’ll soon turn 31, has now missed starts in each of the past three seasons and is under contract for three seasons and $93MM.
  • While the Rangers recently worked out a new deal with reliever Jose Leclerc, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that it’s far from clear they’ll land any other extensions this spring. Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara appear to be hypothetical candidates, but both say they’re not presently engaged with the club. That could still change; Gallo and Mazara each say they are willing to listen and are interested in remaining in Texas. Otherwise, it’s tough to identify any reasonable candidates on the roster.

AL West Notes: Astros, Mariners, Swarzak, Tropeano, Choo

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Astros owner Jim Crane spoke with reporters Wednesday and addressed a number of topics, including his thoughts on potential rule changes throughout the game, Manny Machado’s recent agreement with the Padres and the potential for some Astros moves (link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Crane acknowledged that the Astros “certainly are going to look at” the possibility of a contract extension with Justin Verlander and/or Gerrit Cole. However, he didn’t put a timeline on those talks and was generally vague, suggesting they could take place anytime between now and at the end of the season. “…[I]t just all depends on what they want to do and whether they want to stick here and for what number they want to stick here,” Crane said of his top two starters.

Crane wouldn’t comment much on former Astros Dallas Keuchel and Marwin Gonzalez, both of whom remain unsigned, though he didn’t expressly rule out a reunion. “Hopefully they’ll land in the right spot and certainly it could be one or two of them might be back here,” said Crane, though he declined to say whether Houston has made an actual offer to either player (beyond the qualifying offer which Keuchel rejected back in November).

Here’s more from the division…

  • The Mariners could be active in their efforts to pick up some bullpen depth over the course of Spring Training, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Divish notes that right-hander Anthony Swarzak, acquired to help balance out the financial component of the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz blockbuster, isn’t likely to be ready for Opening Day (due to shoulder discomfort). With that in mind, Seattle is likely to take to the waiver wire in an effort to bolster its depth, though it doesn’t sound as if the club is intent on spending significantly in order to bolster its ’pen at this point.
  • Angels righty Nick Tropeano is still two and a half weeks from throwing a full bullpen session and is roughly five to seven weeks from being ready to pitch in a game setting, writes Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. Tropeano experienced a December setback in his rehab from shoulder issues that dogged him throughout the 2018 season, which has him behind schedule this spring. Tonight’s update provides a clearer timetable than was previously available. Tropeano tells Bollinger that he’s been doing increased video work with new pitching coach Doug White (formerly the Astros’ bullpen coach) to make adjustments to his delivery that’ll hopefully lessen the stress he places on his shoulder.
  • In a Q&A with Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Rangers designated hitter Shin-Soo Choo addressed a number of topics, including Adrian Beltre’s retirement, the atmosphere under new skipper Chris Woodward and his own future in baseball. Choo, who is signed for another two seasons, empathized with Beltre’s desire to spend more time with his family but also voiced a desire to continue playing so long as he is physically able to do so. “Baseball, sports, is a short career,” said the veteran slugger. “If you’re healthy and can perform on the field, I definitely can play. At the same time, I have a family. My wife has been a single mom for eight months for 16 years.” Choo’s bat cratered in the second half last season, but he was slashing a robust .293/.405/.506 at the All-Star break. He’s owed $21MM in each of the next two seasons.
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