Justin Verlander Shut Down Due To Lat Strain
12:42pm: Verlander himself sounds as though he’s expecting to open the season on the injured list (Twitter link via Rome): “I would say it would probably take a miracle for me to be back by Opening Day.”
12:07pm: The Astros have shut right-hander Justin Verlander down for the time being due to a “mild lat strain,” general manager James Click tells reporters (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). There’s no timetable for when Verlander will resume throwing yet, and the organization is uncertain as to whether Verlander will be ready for Opening Day.
There were far worse potential outcomes as Houston fans braced for the worst when Verlander exited yesterday’s start and went in for an MRI. Indeed, Click indicated that, “By and large, the news we got today was on the positive side.” While any injury to a starter of Verlander’s caliber is problematic, the lack of any tearing or structural damage in his arm surely came as a sigh of relief. That said, it’s still a discouraging development for a team with mounting questions on the pitching staff. If Verlander proves unable to take the ball come Opening Day, one would imagine that fellow veteran Zack Greinke would get the nod in the season opener. But beyond Greinke, the Astros are looking at Tommy John returnee Lance McCullers Jr. and the relatively inexperienced Jose Urquidy in the third and fourth slots in the rotation.
Presently, Austin Pruitt and Josh James are the presumptive front-runners for the fifth spot in the rotation, but both could be start games early in the season in the event of an IL stint for Verlander. Alternatively, the ‘Stros could look to use an opener early in the year. Click, it should be noted, was hired out away from the Rays earlier this winter — the organization that pioneered the opener tactic at the Major League level.
One in-house alternative, right-hander Rogelio Armenteros, has already been shut down due to elbow discomfort. Brad Peacock has yet to throw in a game this spring, as he’s been slowed by neck pain. He’s been slated for bullpen duties anyhow. Other options could include right-hander Cy Sneed or lefties Framber Valdez and Cionel Perez. However you want to judge the race for the final few spots, an Astros rotation that until very recently was a legitimate powerhouse now has more questions than answers. And at this point, it’s not as if Houston can simply go out into the free-agent market and plug a starter into their staff. Jason Vargas, Clay Buchholz and Andrew Cashner are among the unsigned names of note, but Opening Day is a mere 15 days away; none from that bunch would be ready in time.
Perhaps Click and his staff will explore other avenues, but no one should expect a proven big league starter to be on the move at this point of Spring Training. And with the Astros about $23MM over the luxury tax threshold as it is, they don’t seem likely to take on any sort of meaningful salary. Waiver claims and deals for veterans who opt out of minor league pacts elsewhere could help to replenish the depth, though, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club make any moves along those lines.
Justin Verlander Undergoes MRI Following Triceps Injury
March 9: Verlander underwent an MRI to evaluate the issue, tweets Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, but the Astros have yet to receive the results.
March 8, 2:50pm: Dusty Baker shed some light on Verlander’s exit, saying he experienced right triceps soreness, per McTaggart. His removal was precautionary.
2:06pm: Justin Verlander exited his spring start two innings early today, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. He threw two scoreless innings, but left to undergo medical testing.
It’s unclear at this time what particular issue Verlander is dealing with, though he’s been plagued with a strained right groin throughout spring training. Neither Verlander nor the Astros gave any indication as to the severity of Verlander’s discomfort. Presumably, an update will be provided shortly.
Among the many issues that could derail the Astros 2020 season, any hiccups at the top of the rotation might be the most worrying. With a host of less-established candidates filling the void at the back end of the rotation, Verlander and co-ace Zack Greinke are the only guaranteed quality starters currently employed in Houston. Lance McCullers Jr. slots in as the number three, but the native Floridian is coming off a lost 2019, and he’s never made more than 22 starts in a season.
Verlander’s injury may turn out to be nothing, but this is the risk in pinning rotation stability on a 37-year-old Verlander and 36-year-old Greinke. Granted, Verlander and Greinke show no signs of slowing down after combining for 13.3 pitching bWAR in 2019, and given the amount of adversity sure to confront the 2020 Astros, a healthy Verlander and Greinke still provide the surest chance to rise above.
Injury Notes: Alfaro, Harris, Verlander
The latest on some player health situations from Spring Training…
- Jorge Alfaro was a scratch from the Marlins‘ lineup today due to left oblique tightness (Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald was among those to report the news). Alfaro is day-to-day, though obviously any type of oblique issue is a concern, given how such injuries have been known to keep players out for weeks at a time depending on the severity. On the plus side, Alfaro isn’t being sent for an MRI, according to reporter Craig Mish (via Twitter). After a 2019 that saw Alfaro hit .262/.312/.425 with 18 homers over 465 PA while posting some subpar blocking and framing numbers, Alfaro is still considered to be Miami’s first-choice catcher heading into 2020, though the club did add Francisco Cervelli as a veteran complement this winter.
- Newly-acquired Nationals reliever Will Harris “tweaked his abdomen” in the wake of a bullpen session yesterday, manager Davey Martinez told MASNsports.com’s Pete Kerzel and other media. MRI results were negative, and Martinez said the team was opting “to be on the conservative side,” so it doesn’t sound as if the problem is overly serious. Harris signed a three-year, $24MM free agent deal with the Nationals this winter, going from the Astros to the team that defeated them in last fall’s World Series.
- Speaking of the Astros, Justin Verlander threw 30 pitches of a live batting practice rather than a scheduled Spring Training start against Washington today. It would have been Verlander’s first official outing of the spring, but the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner told reporters (including MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola) that he “wanted to be in a little more controlled environment” after suffering minor discomfort in his right groin earlier this week. Verlander left the simulated two-inning session feeling good, and he is still scheduled to start Houston’s game against the Cardinals on Tuesday. It is still unclear at to how this setback could impact Verlander’s usual preseason routine and his potential readiness for Opening Day, as “it all depends on where I’m at when I start in games,” the right-hander said. “If there’s a lot of stuff I need to work on, then I don’t have a lot of time to do it. But if I feel pretty good and my stuff’s working, it’s just about building my pitch count. It’s kind of a TBD.”
Astros Players Deny Using Buzzers
Thursday looks like yet another tough day for the Astros in an offseason packed with them. The club sent a few representatives out to discuss its sign-stealing scandal that many believe has tarnished its laundry list of accomplishments from recent years. The news conference wasn’t well-received, as multiple players and owner Jim Crane only offered perfunctory apologies for the team’s wrongdoing. What’s more, Crane called on manager Dusty Baker to ask for forgiveness on the club’s behalf. The problem? Baker had nothing to do with the Astros’ misdeeds. He only just joined the Astros as their skipper Jan. 29, a couple weeks after the team bid adieu to suspended predecessor A.J. Hinch.
Among their possible crimes, Astros hitters may have worn electronic buzzers under their jerseys last season in order to help identify which pitches were coming. Major League Baseball investigated the matter, but it didn’t find any evidence supporting those accusations. Questions about it have persisted, though. Crane said Thursday, “I truly believe there were no buzzers ever.” Prominent members of the roster agree, for what it’s worth, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle relays.
Second baseman Jose Altuve‘s walk-off home run against the Yankees in Game 6 of last year’s American League Championship Series sent the Astros to the World Series. Altuve wouldn’t let his teammates rip off his jersey as he approached home plate to celebrate, but he quickly went into the locker room to change his shirt after that. Some may regard that as damning evidence that he was wearing a device at the time, though the former AL MVP vehemently denied those claims Thursday.
“It was a fake Twitter account that started everything,” Altuve said. “It makes me upset that a fake Twitter account had that much credibility. Like I said, I feel bad for 2017 but I can say something that I didn’t do was the buzzer thing. No one on this team wore a buzzer.”
The “fake Twitter account,” now deactivated, belonged to someone claiming to be the niece of former Astro Carlos Beltran – one of the central figures in the team’s 2017 sign-stealing scheme. The Beltran family denied that was the case when the story came out last month, however.
Along with Altuve, shortstop Carlos Correa, outfielders George Springer and Josh Reddick, and ace Justin Verlander all shot down the idea that the team utilized buzzers.
“That’s a lie. Nobody wore buzzers. Nobody wore devices,” insisted Correa, who added the “story should be killed already.”
Both Springer and Reddick said that was “absolutely not” the case, while Reddick offered, “no, not to my knowledge.”
Considering the events of the past few weeks, you’d be within your rights to have a hard time believing what the Astros are saying. But even if the team didn’t wear buzzers, it’s obvious at this point there were other violations in recent years. Hence, the mess the Astros find themselves in now.
Astros Rotation Status
The Astros have lots on their plate after a difficult couple of weeks in the public eye, but they have on-field issues at hand as well. Now that the manager and GM are in place, the focus can soon return to the field. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke make for an enviable top of the rotation, but there’s uncertainty beyond their veteran aces, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart.
Lance McCullers Jr. will return from elbow surgery to man the third spot in the rotation, and after his strong performance in the postseason, Jose Urquidy has a good chance of claiming one of the two remaining slots. But with a new GM and manager stepping in, there’s a potential clean slate working against the otherwise favored.
A host of candidates are on hand to push Urquidy and contend for the final rotation role. Brad Peacock and Austin Pruitt are the veterans with rotation experience on hand, with either one capable of taking turns in the rotation.
Beyond the vets, there are a host of young arms capable of proving their readiness and stepping into the rotation. Josh James, Bryan Abreu, Framber Valdez, Forrest Whitley, Austin Pruitt, Cy Sneed and Francis Martes. There’s more at stake in this arms race, as there are three to four bullpen spots available for those left out of the dugout.
Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander Named Cy Young Winners
6:28pm: The BBWAA announced a slight correction in the NL voting (Twitter link), revealing that Ryu finished in second place alone — not in a tie with Scherzer, who is alone in third place. Flaherty is now alone in fourth place as well, with Strasburg landing fifth.
5:56pm: Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom and Astros righty Justin Verlander have been named the Cy Young Award winners in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced Wednesday (click for voting breakdowns in the National League and American League).
It’s the second consecutive Cy Young win for deGrom, who has cemented himself among the elite arms of the generation. The 31-year-old deGrom received 29 of a possible 30 first-place votes, with the Dodgers’ Hyun-Jin Ryu receiving the lone other first-place vote. Ryu, who narrowly topped deGrom for the NL ERA title but tossed 22 fewer innings, finished in a second-place tie with Max Scherzer. Stephen Strasburg and Jack Flaherty, meanwhile, were only slightly behind that pair in a fourth-place tie of their own. Mike Soroka, Sonny Gray, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Kirby Yates and Patrick Corbin all received votes and appeared further down the ballot.
Tossing 200 innings is an increasingly rare feat in today’s era of bullpen dominance, but deGrom delivered his third straight year of 200-plus frames, finishing with 204 innings of 2.43 ERA ball. His 2.67 FIP largely supported that excellent ERA, and deGrom was once again masterful in terms of overall strikeout percentage (31.7 percent) and walk percentage (5.5 percent). The right-hander, to this point, hasn’t given the Mets any reason to second-guess the four-year, $120.5MM contract extension they awarded him prior to the 2019 campaign. That pact ensured that deGrom will be a fixture on the starting staff for years to come, and he’ll join Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Marcus Stroman in a formidable top four in 2020 as the Mets look to reload and once again take aim at a postseason berth.
Verlander, 36, narrowly edged out teammate Gerrit Cole but managed to secure his second career Cy Young win. No pitcher outside of Verlander or Cole received a first- or second-place vote, but Verlander’s 17 first-place votes won the day. Rays star Charlie Morton received the bulk of the third-place votes (18) and came in third place on the ballot, while Cleveland’s Shane Bieber received 10 third-place votes and finished fourth in voting. Lance Lynn parlayed his brilliant rebound campaign into a fifth-place finish, while Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito and Mike Minor rounded out the ballot (in that order).
Verlander led the Majors with 223 innings pitched and finished second in the game in strikeout percentage (35.4 percent), trailing only Cole (39.9 percent) in that regard. Verlander’s 2.58 ERA was slightly higher than Cole’s 2.50 mark, and his FIP (3.27) was a good margin higher than that of Cole (2.64). But Verlander yielded fewer walks in more innings pitched, started one more game than Cole and finished the year with 21 victories to Cole’s 20. The two were widely expected to crush the rest of the field in a tightly contested race and did just that. Verlander would have been a free agent alongside Cole were it not for the two-year, $66MM extension he signed over the winter. He’ll instead join Zack Greinke atop the Houston rotation for the next couple of seasons as he seeks to add a third trophy to his Cooperstown case.
World Series Notes: Altuve, Astros, Nationals, Pressly
Somewhere in the concourse beyond Minute Maid Park, there lies a stretch of concrete that will one day be the site of a statue in honor of Astros infielder Jose Altuve. Saturday night’s 9th inning saw the diminutive second baseman launch a towering shot into the night air of a tied elimination game in the American League Championship Series, sealing with one swing his place in postseason lore.
But Altuve’s ascension to Game 6 October glory is an unlikely development. While this seems like a pat statement at first glance–perhaps referring, as observers often do, to Altuve’s small, 5’6 frame–the truly unlikely thing about Altuve’s story concerns a nascent failure in his native Venezuela. As Alex Putterman’s 2017 story for The Atlantic explained, Altuve was cut by the Astros after appearing as a teenager in a club tryout camp because the organization considered him too short. At the behest of his father, Altuve returned to tryout for the club again, where he ultimately showed enough to earn a $15,000 signing bonus from Houston officials–hardly a considerable sum in an international signing landscape where seven-figure deals often grab headlines stateside. While a recap of Altuve’s many career exploits following that signing would be redundant at this point, tonight seems a fitting occasion to remember that tonight’s hero achieved his place in history due, in part, to familial encouragement and a little bit of old-fashioned determination. Apparently, even the tiniest of prospects can develop into statues, given the right conditions.
Looking onward to the 115th World Series, beginning play on Tuesday evening…
- With champagne still raining in the Houston locker room, it’s obviously a bit early to talk pitching matchups–but that didn’t stop Nationals beat writer Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post from giving it a shot (link). As Dougherty sees it, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole should square off in Game 1, Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander could conceivably follow in the second game, and Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke project as the matchup for Game 3. For their careers, those six pitchers have combined for 269.3 bWAR. Cole, as has been stated ad nauseam this postseason, is slated for free agency this winter, and Strasburg could follow should he decline the remaining four years and $100MM sitting on the other side of his contractual opt-out.
- Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle shares that reliever Ryan Pressly had some “scar tissue in his knee [break] off” during his third-inning appearance of Game 6 of the ALCS (link). Said scar tissue is, presumably, the result of surgery Pressly underwent in August to address soreness in his right knee joint. Pressly intimated to Rome that he will be “ready to go” for the World Series. If the pitching lineup Astros manager AJ Hinch used in the ALCS is any indication, then Pressly’s services would be especially vital in Game 4, which could be a bullpen game for the ‘Stros. Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington shares that Hinch said in his postgame presser that he is “expecting” Pressly to be ready for World Series action (link).
Pitcher Notes: Pressly, Verlander, Pivetta
All-Star Astros relief ace Ryan Pressly underwent surgery on his right knee Friday, but the right-hander is determined to make it back to action before the end of the season, as detailed in a piece from Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. “It’s always frustrating when you miss time, rather it being in Spring Training or offseason, or even now,” Pressly said. “Stuff like this happens. It’s a baseball injury and you just have to figure out a way to get back as fast as you can.”
Pressly had already missed time with a knee injury this summer, so Astros fans are surely hoping that this direct address of the hurler’s nagging injury will get him ready for the postseason. Statistically speaking, there’s basically nothing to dislike about Pressly’s 2019 output. With a 2.50 ERA, 11.62 K/9 rate, and SwStr% exceeding 17% in 50.1 innings this year, Pressly should give October opposition another thing to fear aside from the Stros’ vaunted starting trio of Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke, and Justin Verlander.
More notes on pitching from around the game of baseball…
- Speaking of Verlander, Chris Thomas of the Detroit Free Press has details on a recent, bizarre incident in Houston involving the veteran pitcher and journalist Anthony Fenech. In a possible violation of the MLB’s collective bargaining agreement, the Astros denied clubhouse access to Fenech (a Detroit Free Press writer) this week, after being requested to do so by Verlander. As Thomas’ report lays out, Verlander is apparently still sour over several perceived violations on his privacy by Fenech during the pitcher’s days in Detroit, including Fenech’s tweeting of a private, astronomy-centric conversation between Verlander and Al Kaline in 2017. Obviously, readers should bear in mind that this Free Press article is likely to advocate for an employee facing possibly unfair public scrutiny, but it does offer interesting insight into the fiery, vigilant personality that Verlander employs both on and off the mound.
- 26-year-old righty Nick Pivetta has been sent to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, courtesy of a Phillies organization that has watched him struggle to a 5.38 ERA in 88.2 innings in 2019. Pivetta, long touted as a potential breakout candidate due to his bat-missing abilities, has been particularly stung by the long ball this year, as 22.4% of flyballs against him have left the yard. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports paraphrases manager Gabe Kapler as having said that Pivetta needs to use this demotion to “look in (the) mirror and show more accountability” (link).
Health Notes: Kershaw, Perez, Johnson
Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw may not be all that far from returning to the MLB mound, but he has a few more steps to take. As Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter, the star hurler could soon be cleared for a minor-league rehab assignment — if he’s able to complete a live BP session tomorrow without incident. Supposing things go well and Kershaw is ready to resume competitive action next week, he’ll still need to build up his pitch count before returning to the Dodgers roster. It’s not yet clear how many rehab starts he’d need before being activated.
More health notes from around the game …
- The Tigers announced Friday that pitching prospect Franklin Perez will miss the first four to six weeks of the season due to tendinitis in his right shoulder. He’ll rehab at the team’s spring facility in Lakeland, Fla. for the time being. The shoulder tendinitis is the latest health-related setback for 21-year-old, who also missed most of the 2018 campaign with lat and shoulder issues. Perez, who threw just 19 1/3 innings last seasons, was one of the key pieces Detroit received from the Astros in the 2017 blockbuster that sent Justin Verlander to Houston. Considered at the time of that deal to be one of baseball’s premier minor league arms, Perez has seen his prospect star dim as injuries have prevented him from taking the hill. Fortunately for the Tigers, he’s still quite young and has ample time to develop, but the ongoing arm issues are a troubling trend.
- There’s an even tougher diagnosis for Marlins prospect Osiris Johnson, as Wells Dusenbery of the Sun Sentinel reports on Twitter. The youngster appears to be sidelined for all of the 2019 season after undergoing surgery for a right tibial stress fracture. Taken in the second round of last year’s draft, the shortstop is considered a high-risk, high-upside talent. He turned in good results at the Rookie level but stumbled in a late promotion to the Class A level. This was to be an important year of development for Johnson, who only turned 18 last October.
Astros Extend Justin Verlander
SUNDAY: Houston has announced the extension.
SATURDAY: The Astros have reached an agreement with right-hander Justin Verlander on a two-year, $66MM extension, Mark Berman of FOX 26 Houston reports. The deal will keep Verlander, a client of ISE Baseball, in Houston through the 2021 season.
It has been a remarkable few seasons for Verlander, who’s set to complete the final season of a five-year, $140MM extension signed prior to the ’13 campaign. Lagging velocity and some health issues led to messy 2014 and 2015 seasons, but Verlander recovered admirably, finishing out his Tigers tenure in good form before being shipped to the ‘Stros.
Verlander has now reached his 36th birthday, but you wouldn’t know it from the way he pitched last year. Over 214 frames, he worked to a 2.52 ERA with 12.2 K/9 against just 1.6 BB/9. And it wasn’t just the work of a crafty veteran who somehow managed to squeeze out one last good season from what was left of his stuff. Verlander averaged over 95 mph with his dominating fastball and jumped to a 14.5% swinging-strike rate — easily the highest mark of his storied career.
There’s an argument to be made that Verlander was never better than in 2018. He didn’t tally the same volume of great innings that he did in the vintage seasons of his youth, but Verlander’s insane 30.4% K%-BB% was nearly twice his career average. That level of unadulterated dominance is typically reserved for elite late-inning relievers who mostly unleash their arsenal in one-inning bursts. Statcast actually felt that Verlander was unlucky to permit opposing batters a paltry .260 wOBA. The contact they made against him was so weak that the advanced system credited those hitters with a .236 xwOBA.
Locking up Verlander – the third in a series of late-spring Astros extensions – brings at least some degree of clarity to a future rotation mix that seemed hazy at best. With both Verlander and Gerrit Cole set to hit the market after the upcoming campaign, and emerging frontliner Lance McCullers Jr. on the shelf until at least Opening Day 2020, Houston’s level of concern vis-á-vis the top end of the rotation had reached urgent heights. Collin McHugh was lassoed back from the bullpen, but none of the club’s glut of emerging arms – Cionel Perez, Framber Valdez, Josh James, Forrest Whitley, Corbin Martin, and J.B. Bukauskas among them – would likely be prepared to lead a staff in the upcoming seasons, especially one with designs on another AL crown.
The club still has more to work to do, of course (old friend Dallas Keuchel is still out there), but with just $108MM on the 2020 books even with the extensions divvied to Verlander, Alex Bregman, and Ryan Pressly, there should be plenty of room with which to maneuver. A Cole deal seems further off, and riskier still given his third-starter track record in the two seasons prior to ’18, but the club’s tech-blazed path to improvement with so many of its hurlers, centered on bolstering spin rates with pitches both fast and slow, should certainly be a mark in its favor. Houston, under Jeff Luhnow, has always been loath to part from the cream of its crop, so a high-profile trade for a top-end arm wouldn’t seem to be in the cards.
Regardless, with ace now in tow, the Astros have widened their window considerably. In addition to Cole, only George Springer, among the team’s stars, is set to hit the open market between now and when Verlander’s contract expires at the end of 2021, and the team has its floodgates set wide open in hopes that another homegrown star or two will wash ashore.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report the two sides were “moving toward” an extension (via Twitter). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first with the proposed figures (Twitter link). Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.