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Rangers Pursuing Jordan Hicks

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The Cardinals have been hopeful of working out an extension with closer Jordan Hicks, but as of yesterday, talks had failed to progress. There’s no indication yet that the Cardinals feel an extension decidedly will not be reached, but while the situation remains unresolved, the Rangers have been angling to hammer out a trade bringing Hicks to Texas, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi recently reported that the Rangers have been exploring trades that could simultaneously address both their rotation and bullpen needs; speculatively speaking, the Cardinals could be a match in such a deal, with both Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty expected to be traded between now and Tuesday’s deadline. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News offered a similar report this morning, noting that Texas could look to do the bulk of its shopping in one trade. Grant echoes prior reports that Texas has talked to the White Sox about Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly, and he further adds that the Rangers have some degree of interest in Sox relievers Keynan Middleton, Kendall Graveman and Aaron Bummer.

Hicks would be the second power arm added to the Texas bullpen in the past month. The Rangers jumped the relief market and kicked off the summer trade season by acquiring Aroldis Chapman from the Royals in late June, and it’s been well documented that they’re still looking for bullpen reinforcements.

Hicks, a free agent at season’s end despite still being just 26 years old, would fill that need in spades. He’s shaken off a rocky start to the season and been one of the most dominant bullpen arms in the sport dating back to early May. In his past 28 2/3 frames, the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 1.88 ERA with a 31.4% strikeout rate, an 8.5% walk rate and a mammoth 66.7% ground-ball rate — all while averaging a blistering 100.6 mph on his sinker. He’s doing so while playing on a modest $1.8375MM salary agreed upon over the winter to avoid arbitration in his final season of eligibility.

Overall, Hicks currently sports a 3.67 ERA in 41 2/3 innings, though fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.02) and SIERA (3.40) are a bit more bullish. Command has long been an issue for Hicks, but after walking nearly 20% of his opponents through May 7, he’s since sporting that previously mentioned 8.5% rate — roughly in line with the league average.

Durability has been the other primary knock on Hicks. Since debuting as a 21-year-old back in 2018, he’s pitched just 219 1/3 big league innings. A 2019 UCL tear ended that season in June and sidelined him for the entire 2020 campaign, and Hicks has also spent time on the injured list due to inflammation in that surgically repaired elbow, a flexor strain in his right arm, and neck spasms. The 77 2/3 innings he pitched as a rookie still represent a career-high, and the 40 appearances he’s made this season already mark the second-highest total of his career, next to that rookie campaign.

Hicks has avoided the injured list this season and generally been able to take the ball whenever the Cards have needed, however. He’s frequently worked back-to-back days and pitched on three consecutive days as recently as mid-June. He’s seen a modest dip in his velocity of late, “only” averaging 99.6 mph on his sinker over his past six appearances, though that includes a 100.4 mph average in his most recent appearance.

As for the White Sox group, any would add a talented arm to the back of the Texas ’pen. I took a look at Middleton’s quiet resurgence earlier this month, although he’s been scuffling of late — with a dozen runs allowed in his past 14 innings. He’s still carrying a 3.82 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate this year while averaging nearly 96 mph on his heater (and playing on a low-cost deal). Graveman, signed through 2024 on a deal that pays him $8MM annually, has a 3.48 ERA with a roughly average 22.6% strikeout rate and an elevated 10.6% walk rate. His typically excellent ground-ball rate has wilted to a below-average 39.4% in 2023. Bummer has struggled to an ERA north of 6.00 but still has excellent strikeout and grounder rates on the year, with a lofty BABIP and unusually low strand rate contributing to his struggles (as I explored in a bit more detail yesterday).

White Sox Rumors: Cease, Bummer, Lynn, Kelly

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The White Sox’ long-expected status as deadline sellers was cemented last night when they traded impending free agents Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels in exchange for prospects Edgar Quero and Ky Bush. Further deals for the South Siders between now and Tuesday’s deadline are a certainty, but a broad-reaching teardown still appears unlikely. Teams who have inquired on the availability of righty Dylan Cease, who’s controllable through the 2025 season, have repeatedly been turned away, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

Cease, last year’s Cy Young runner-up, has been one of the most speculated-upon trade candidates in baseball this season, even as it’s continued to seem unlikely he’s moved. The White Sox are intent on reloading and taking another run at contending in 2024, making it far less likely that they’d deal a controllable top-of-the-rotation arm of Cease’s caliber.

The 27-year-old Cease hasn’t pitched as well in 2023 as he did in 2022. He’s sporting a solid 4.04 ERA with an excellent 28% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate through 113 2/3 frames so far this season. He’s been particularly effective over his past nine starts, however, firing 51 innings of 3.00 ERA ball while punching out one-third of his opponents and recording an improved 8.5% walk rate. Cease is earning an affordable $5.7MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility and will be due a raise on that salary next season.

Cease isn’t the only controllable arm drawing interest on Chicago’s roster. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that several contenders have expressed interest in lefty reliever Aaron Bummer despite a disastrous 6.56 ERA. Bummer’s season got out to an awful start, but he’s logged a 4.50 ERA in 24 innings dating back to May 12; five of the dozen earned runs he’s yielded in that time came in one meltdown on July 6.

Looking deeper into Bummer’s season, he’s fanned an impressive 28.3% of his opponents and kept the ball on the ground at a hefty 54.3% clip. The 29-year-old has been plagued by a .347 average on balls in play and an abnormally low 48.1% strand rate this year, both of which figure to trend back toward his career averages of .300 and 69.5%. Bummer hasn’t allowed a home run yet this season, which isn’t sustainable, but the overall package of a hard-throwing lefty who misses bats and piles up grounders while pitching on an affordable contract understandably has appeal for contending clubs. Bummer is playing out the fourth season of a five-year, $16MM contract but can be controlled another three seasons: a $5.5MM salary in 2024 plus a pair of club options valued at $7.25MM and $7.5MM in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

As with Cease, Bummer can be a part of the White Sox’ efforts to contend both in 2024 and 2025, so there’s no guarantee he’s moved. However, reliever performance is more volatile, evidenced by Bummer’s current ERA after logging a 2.59 mark in 160 innings from 2019-22. If the Sox can get some near-MLB help that could more affordably contribute to the 2024 roster, it’s feasible they’d be open to the possibility.

At some point in the next few days, the Sox will quite likely move right-handers Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Keynan Middleton, all of whom can become free agent at season’s end (though Lynn and Kelly have 2024 options on their contracts). The Rays and Dodgers were both reported to be in talks on Lynn yesterday, and the Dodgers were tied to Kelly.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds further fuel to those rumors, writing this morning that the Rangers and White Sox discussed a trade that would bring both Lynn and Kelly to Texas yesterday. The talks didn’t gain enough traction to bring about a deal, but Texas’ interest in both pitchers highlights the number of balls the Sox have in the air and the number of paths they could take as they look to retool in the coming days.

The White Sox’ Quietly Dominant Trade Chip

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Earlier in the week, I took a look at how the Cubs had scored big in minor league free agency and are now left with the quandary of what to do with Mark Leiter Jr. — a breakout reliever at age 32 with three years of remaining club control beyond the current season. They could sell high or hold onto him in hopes that the breakout is both legitimate and sustainable into his mid-30s. Across town, the White Sox had similarly good fortune in minor league free agency, but there’s no question of how they’ll proceed in the coming weeks.

At some point between now and Aug. 1, it’s extraordinarily likely Keynan Middleton will be traded.

Angels fans are surely familiar with the 29-year-old Middleton, who looked like a bullpen mainstay in Anaheim earlier in his career before injuries — most notably Tommy John surgery — derailed his trajectory. Fans of other clubs, however, may have never had Middleton on their radars and might be surprised to learn that he’s in his final season of club control and will be a free agent this winter. Middleton collected five years of service time prior to the 2023 season — much of it coming on the Major League injured list — despite entering the current season with just 143 2/3 big leagues innings under his belt. As such, he’s a pure rental on a fourth-place White Sox team whose GM has been candid about the team’s chances and the possibility of selling at the deadline.

At the time of his signing, Middleton didn’t command much attention. It was a minor league deal for a reliever issued by a club that had several high-priced veterans in the bullpen (Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Aaron Bummer, Jake Diekman). Middleton hadn’t had big league success since his initial run with the Angels in 2017-19 and looked like a pure depth move. Even when the Sox selected him to the 40-man roster in mid-April, at a time when both Hendriks and Kelly were on the injured list, it seemed like he could just be a short-term stopgap until the Sox got healthier. And perhaps that was indeed the initial plan, but Middleton has become an indispensable member of the bullpen and emerged as a legitimate trade chip.

It’s only 32 innings of work so far, but the right-hander owns a tidy 3.09 ERA on the season. That’s a solid number on its own, but the underlying numbers are even more encouraging. Middleton averaged 94.8 mph with his heater in a short look with the D-backs last year but is back up to 96 mph in 2023 — much healthier and much closer to the 96.8 mph he averaged with the Angels prior to surgery.

There’s far more to like about Middleton than a simple resurgence in velocity. He’s fanned a hefty 31.1% of his opponents, issued walks at a slightly better-than-average 8.3% clip and racked up grounders at a huge 56.4% rate. Even more impressive are his 17.8% swinging-strike rate and 38.4% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate — top-of-the-scale numbers that rank sixth and 14th, respectively, among the 338 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 30 innings during the 2023 season. This has been the best stretch of Middleton’s career, and while the sample is small, he’s arguably been one of the sport’s best relievers in 2023.

The one knock is his 1.41 HR/9 mark, but that’s driven in part by a cozy home ballpark and a 26.3% homer-to-flyball rate that’s bound to regress; in the past decade there have only been 38 instances (out of a possible 4550) where a pitcher with at least 30 innings pitched has run a homer-to-flyball rate that high. Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize in the 12-13% range for most pitchers over a large enough sample. Since 2013, the league-average homer-to-flyball rate for pitchers has fallen between 9.5% (a clear outlier season in 2014) and 15.7% (during the juiced ball season of 2019).

Skeptics might point out that Middleton has struggled over the past month, and it’s a valid concern. He’s been tagged for nine earned runs in his past 10 2/3 innings, due largely to yielding four of the five homers he’s surrendered on the season. It’s also worth pointing out, however, that the rest of Middleton’s profile during that time remains largely unchanged. He’s fanned 27.7% of his opponents, walked 8.5% of them and compiled a 55.2% ground-ball rate. Opponents are also averaging just 86.2 mph off the bat against him during that slump; he’s still rarely giving up hard contact — it’s just that a disproportionate amount of the hard contact he has yielded has resulted in a round-tripper. (For what it’s worth, four of the five homers he’s allowed this year have come in his hitter-friendly home park, too.)

There’s some degree of volatility with all relief pitching, however, and this season Middleton has done pretty much everything modern front offices love to see at a better-than-average (often elite) rate. He throws hard, misses bats at elite levels, limits walks at an average clip and ranks in the 94th percentile of pitchers (min. 30 innings) in ground-ball rate. It’s a recipe for success that checks a lot of boxes. Add in that he originally signed on a low-cost minor league deal and would be affordable for even teams with luxury tax concerns, and Middleton only sounds more appealing.

Of  course, given the limited track record coming into the season and the fact that he’s a pure rental, Middleton isn’t going to fetch any club a true top-tier prospect on his own. But we regularly see teams pay relatively steep prices for relievers at the deadline, even for rental arms. The demand for Middleton should be strong, and on his own he should still be able to net the Sox a solid prospect or perhaps a younger player with some club control but no real spot on his current team’s roster.

There are multiple paths for the White Sox to explore as they mull their options with Middleton, but nearly all roads seem like they’ll lead to a trade of some sort. And while Middleton might first seem underwhelming to the fanbase that acquires him, he could wind up being one of the most impactful arms moved at this year’s deadline if he can sustain this level of pitching in the season’s final two and a half months.

Latest On White Sox’s Deadline Plans

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The White Sox could be one of the most interesting sellers of this year’s deadline. Chicago lost their last two heading into the All-Star Break and sit 16 games under .500 at 38-54. They’ve fallen eight games back of Cleveland in the AL Central, in which they now occupy fourth place.

Chicago has a number of players who are relatively close to free agency whom they could market in trade. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Sox are prepared to seriously consider offers on all but four players: center fielder Luis Robert Jr., ace Dylan Cease, first baseman Andrew Vaughn and left fielder Eloy Jiménez. Heyman suggests that while no one on the roster might be categorically untouchable, Chicago’s “clear intention” is to retain those four players.

Last month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote that Chicago was telling rival clubs they were focused on retaining players under control beyond this season. Genuinely considering offers on everyone aside from Cease, Robert, Vaughn and Jiménez would represent a change in direction, although the Sox would still resist moving any of their most valuable long-term assets.

Chicago has a number of likely impending free agents who are apparent trade candidates. Starter Lucas Giolito and relievers Keynan Middleton and Reynaldo López are pure rentals; all three appeared among MLBTR’s top 20 trade candidates last week. So did starter Lance Lynn, whose contract contains an $18MM team option that appears likely to be bought out for $1MM. Reliever Joe Kelly, controllable for next season via $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout), also ranked highly on that list.

The Sox have a few more players with relatively pricy 2024 options. Closer Liam Hendriks has a $15MM option that comes with a matching buyout figure. That seems likely to be exercised, as buying Hendriks out would only allow the Sox to defer that payment over a 10-year span. Tim Anderson’s deal contains a $14MM team option or a $1MM buyout. Anderson is having a terrible season (.223/.259/.263 over 290 plate appearances) that could at least force the organization to reconsider an option that looked like an easy call a few months ago. The Mike Clevinger deal contains a $12MM mutual provision which the club will probably buy out for $4MM.

Yasmani Grandal and Elvis Andrus are the other impending free agents on the roster. Grandal is hitting at a decent .251/.317/.374 clip, but trades of catchers midseason are fairly rare and he’s making an $18.25MM salary that’d be difficult to move. Andrus isn’t producing, hitting .208/.286/.266.

The White Sox considering offers on anyone in that group isn’t too surprising. The majority are unlikely to be on the South Side beyond this season. It’d be an inopportune time to deal Anderson or Hendriks (currently on the injured list with elbow inflammation), although the front office could look into it if they’re contemplating declining next year’s option on either player.

Giolito, in particular, seems all but assured to change uniforms. MLBTR’s #1 trade candidate has tossed 112 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball across 19 starts. He’s striking out over a quarter of opponents and looks the part of a durable #2/3 starter on a playoff team. He’s on track for a nine-figure contract that’d be larger than any in White Sox’s franchise history. Chicago should get more in trade this summer than the value of the draft choice they’d receive if they allow him to depart in free agency after declining a qualifying offer.

Heyman suggests the Reds and Rangers could check in Giolito. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has gone on record about a desire to add pitching. The NL Central-leading club is very likely to upgrade a starting staff that’s presently without Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Texas has gotten strong results out of their rotation but could look to add depth as they try to maintain a two-game lead in the AL West. They’ve reportedly checked in on Lynn as well, though Giolito would be the more impactful and costlier (in terms of prospect capital) addition.

One controllable player whom the Sox seem at least somewhat willing to consider moving: starter Michael Kopech. Heyman writes the Sox would be more amenable to relinquishing Kopech than anyone from the Robert, Cease, Vaughn, Jiménez group.

While the 6’3″ right-hander is only in his second full season as a big league starter, he’s not all that far off free agency. Kopech will soon surpass four years of MLB service and is eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign — the same control window as Cease. He’s playing this season on a $2.05MM salary.

Kopech landed on the 15-day injured list last week with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He’s generally expected back not long after the Break, however, so he could have multiple starts before the August 1 deadline. If he’s in form, he’d surely generate interest.

Through 16 starts and 86 innings, Kopech has worked to a 4.08 ERA. He’s striking out 26% of opponents on a solid 11.4% swinging strike percentage while averaging over 95 MPH on his fastball. There’s clearly plenty of promise with the 27-year-old righty, but he has not yet established himself as the top-of-the-rotation arm some evaluators had envisioned. That’s largely due to spotty control, as his 13.1% walk rate is the highest of any pitcher with at least 15 starts.

There’s obviously far less urgency for general manager Rick Hahn and his staff to move Kopech than with any of the impending free agents. Chicago isn’t going to embark on a full teardown and rebuild, so they figure to hold firm to a lofty asking price on their controllable mid-rotation starter. Still, the front office seems more amenable than they were a few weeks ago to consider moving players besides their collection of talented rentals.

White Sox Reportedly Only Willing To Trade Rental Players

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The White Sox are potentially lined up to be sellers at the deadline, though exactly how much they commit to that task remains to be seen. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that, as of right now, they might only be willing to move impending free agents. Those plans could always change as discussions take place, but it’s a noteworthy stance at the moment. The trade deadline is August 1.

At this point, it’s not even necessarily a lock that the White Sox will be sellers at all. Despite their poor 30-40 record, they are only 5.5 games back of the Twins in the weak American League Central division. But the Wild Card race is much stronger, putting them 9.5 games out of a spot there.

A hot streak could get them right back in the divisional race but those have been hard to come by this season and the front office needs to at least consider the possibility that they stay on the outside looking in. Like all clubs, the players on the roster have varied contractual situations that affect the trade calculus. It seems that the club is currently leaning towards trading players on expiring contracts but keeping players with more control in order to take another shot at contending next year.

Even by limiting themselves to a softer sell, they would still have plenty of players to discuss in trade talks. Lucas Giolito, Mike Clevinger, Yasmani Grandal, Elvis Andrus, Reynaldo López and Keynan Middleton are all set to reach free agency this winter and would be the club’s best trade chips. Clevinger’s deal has a mutual option for 2024 but those are rarely picked up by both parties.

Giolito would be one of the top names on the market this summer if he were available, having established himself as a reliable and effective starter in recent years. In each season from 2019 to 2021, he had an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53. That figure jumped to 4.90 last year, but that coincided with his batting average on balls in play jumping to .340, well above any of his previous seasons. This year, he’s dropped his ERA right back down to his norm as he’s at 3.54 through 14 starts.

Now 28 years old, Giolito has gone year-to-year in arbitration. He’s now in his third and final arb year, making $10.4MM. By the time the deadline rolls around, there will be roughly $3.5MM left to be paid out.

Just about every contender will be looking to bolster their rotation for the final months of the season and the playoffs, which should give Giolito widespread interest. Even teams on the lower end of the spending spectrum could fit that salary figure onto their books, meaning few clubs would be eliminated from the list of logical suitors. That makes Giolito the White Sox’ best chance at recouping some future value from what could end up being a disappointing season.

Some of those other names may have some appeal as well. Clevinger has a 3.88 ERA but with subpar peripherals, striking out 19.3% of opponents while walking 9.5%. A .275 batting average on balls in play and 81.2% strand rate are helping him out, with his 4.89 FIP and 5.07 SIERA less optimistic. He’s making a salary of $8MM this year but has a $4MM buyout on his mutual option. He has a bit of an uncertain health outlook at the moment, as he was removed from his most recent start due to biceps soreness. It seems there’s no structural damage, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, but he might still land on the injured list.

Grandal struggled last year but is having a decent bounce back, hitting .271/.330/.410 so far this year for a wRC+ of 106. Trading catchers at midseason can be tricky since they would then have to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly. However, Grandal is 34 years old and hits well enough that it could make sense for him to factor into a club’s designated hitter mix, especially since he’s a switch-hitter. The final year of his four-year deal pays him $18.25MM annually.

Andrus is also an impending free agent but his interest will surely be muted as he’s hitting .196/.277/.247 this year. López has a 5.10 ERA but his 28.3% strikeout rate will surely lead to some intrigue. Middleton’s 1.93 ERA is buoyed by an unsustainable 96.3% strand rate but he is striking out 31.9% of opponents and getting grounders at a 54.5% clip. All three of these players are making modest salaries of less than $4MM this year.

There are also a couple of borderline cases who could be considered rentals. The Sox have an $18MM option on Lance Lynn for next year with a $1MM buyout. His 6.75 ERA this year makes it less likely that gets picked up but it also diminishes his trade appeal. Joe Kelly is in a somewhat similar situation as he can be kept around for 2024 via a $9.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout. He has a 4.57 ERA but strong peripherals and a 53.7% strand rate, leading to a 2.86 FIP and 2.80 SIERA.

The club also has a $15MM option on Liam Hendriks, though with a $15MM buyout. The only difference is that triggering the buyout would allow them to spread the payment out over 10 years instead of just in 2024. He’s been floated as a trade candidate this summer but he’s currently on the injured list due to inflammation in his pitching elbow. Given the injury, the PR hit of trading him away after his feel-good return from cancer and that buyout, it seems likely that he’s with the Sox again next year.

If the Sox ultimately stick to their plan of only trading rentals, that would mean that other speculative trade candidates are off the table. Many observers have wondered if the club would consider moving shortstop Tim Anderson, who can be retained for 2024 via a $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout. Trading him now would be a difficult decision because it would hurt the club’s chances of returning to contention in 2024 and the return would surely be diminished since he’s hitting just .251/.290/.296 this year. Instead of trading him when his value is at a low ebb, there would be sense in the club hanging onto him and hoping for a return to form next year.

Dylan Cease has also been suggested as a trade candidate but that would require the club to really commit to a lengthier rebuild. He still has two more passes through arbitration to go and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2025. His ERA has almost doubled from last year’s 2.20 to this year’s 4.31 figure, but he’s still getting strikeouts at an above-average 26.2% rate. They would surely get a huge haul for him if they decided to move him, but it doesn’t seem as though that’s on the table right now.

White Sox Select Keynan Middleton, Place Joe Kelly On IL, Outright Jonathan Stiever

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The White Sox announced Monday that they’ve placed right-hander Joe Kelly on the 15-day injured list due to a groin strain and selected the contract of right-handed reliever Keynan Middleton. Right-hander Jonathan Stiever was outrighted in order to open a 40-man spot for Middleton. Stiever hasn’t been previously outrighted and doesn’t have three years of MLB service time, so he can’t reject the assignment. He’ll remain with the organization now that he’s cleared waivers.

Middleton, 29, signed a minor league deal over the winter and didn’t initially win a spot in Chicago’s bullpen, pitching to a 6.00 ERA in nine spring innings. He’s opened the year in Charlotte with a trio of scoreless frames, punching out three of the 11 batters he’s faced and also walking a pair.

The White Sox will be Middleton’s fourth big league club. He spent the first four seasons of his career with the Angels, looking at one point like a potential building block in the relief corps in Anaheim. Middleton debuted with 58 1/3 solid innings back in 2017 (3.86 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate) and showed a high-octane fastball that averaged 97 mph.

Middleton started the 2018 season with an even stronger 2.04 ERA in 17 2/3 frames but saw diminished velocity while his strikeout and walk rates trended in the wrong direction. He was placed on the injured list in May with what the team discovered some damage in his ulnar collateral ligament. He underwent Tommy John surgery just a few days later. That wiped out the remainder of his 2018 season, and while Middleton returned with a clean 1.17 ERA in 7 2/3 innings the following year, he walked more hitters (seven) than he struck out (six) and was working with a fastball sitting at 94.2 mph.

In the three seasons since, Middleton’s velocity has fluctuated greatly, but his results with the Halos, Mariners and D-backs have been similarly below par. Overall, since returning from Tommy John surgery, the right-hander carries a 4.66 ERA with a 19% strikeout rate and 11.9% walk rate that are both worse than the league average. In the aggregate, his post-TJS fastball has sat at 95.6 mph, but that includes year-to-year averages that are all over the map: 94.2 mph in 2019, 97.2 mph in 2020, 95.6 mph in 2021 and 94.8 mph in 2022. Along the way, he’s encountered biceps, elbow and ankle injuries.

As for the 34-year-old Kelly, he’s gotten out to a rough start, yielding three runs on four hits and a walk through his first 2 2/3 innings of the 2023 campaign. He’s playing out the second season of a two-year, $17MM contract that hasn’t panned out as either he or the White Sox hoped. Biceps and hamstring injuries limited the former Red Sox and Dodgers hurler to 37 innings last year, during which he posted an unsightly 6.08 ERA with a career-worst 13.5% walk rate. He’ll now head to the injured list for the third time in just over one calendar year with the South Siders.

Kelly, of course, has a much better track record prior to his time with the ChiSox. From 2017-21, he tossed 229 innings of 3.62 ERA ball, and he was a postseason hero for the 2018 Red Sox, tossing 11 1/3 innings of one-run ball with a 13-to-0 K/BB ratio in the postseason during their march to an eventual World Series title.

Stiever, 26 next month, is a 2018 fifth-rounder who ranked among the White Sox’ best prospects from 2020-21 but has seen his stock tumble in recent seasons, in part due to health troubles. Stiever underwent lat surgery late in the 2021 season and spent nearly the entire 2022 campaign on the 60-day injured list as a result. He’s appeared in just 6 1/3 MLB innings, allowing 10 runs on 11 hits (four homers) and four walks in that time.

Because of those injuries and the lost 2020 minor league season, Stiever still has just 252 minor league innings under his belt. Seventy-nine of those have come at the Triple-A level, but he’s been tagged for a 5.47 ERA in that time. All but five of those 79 frames came during an ugly 2021 season, and Stiever has tossed a pair of scoreless innings so far to begin his ’23 season. He’ll remain in Triple-A and hope that better health brings about better results. If so, he could conceivably work his way back into the 40-man roster conversation at some point.

White Sox Sign Keynan Middleton To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox have signed right-hander Keynan Middleton to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He’ll presumably receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Middleton, 29, was drafted by the Angels and spent the first few seasons of his career there. He seemed to be establishing himself as a quality relief option in 2017 and 2018, making 80 appearances over those two seasons with a 3.43 ERA. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery midway through the latter campaign, putting him out of action for over a year.

The righty returned to the mound late in 2019 but has struggled over the past few years. He made 13 appearances in the shortened 2020 season but with a 5.25 ERA. The Angels non-tendered him after that but he secured a major league deal from the Mariners for 2021. The change of scenery didn’t help much, with the righty posting a 4.94 ERA over 32 appearances that season.

After a couple of rough seasons, Middleton had to settle for a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks for 2022. He pitched well enough in the minors to get back into the big leagues, but his 18 appearances for Arizona resulted in a 5.29 ERA. He did reduce his walk rate to 4.3% after being much higher in the preceding campaigns, but his strikeout and ground ball rates were both subpar. He also allowed five home runs in that brief time, matching his total from the four previous seasons combined. He was cut from the roster in November and became a free agent again.

Middleton will now look to get back on track after a rough few years. Despite some poor results, he does average over 95 mph on his fastball, placing him in the 74th percentile of qualified pitchers, according to Statcast. If he can claw his way back onto the club’s roster, he won’t be able to be optioned to the minors without his consent since he has over five years of MLB service time.

A’s Claim Yonny Hernandez From Diamondbacks

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The Athletics announced that they have claimed infielder Yonny Hernandez off waivers from the Diamondbacks. Additionally, the club has outrighted infielder Nate Mondou, left-hander Sam Selman and righties Austin Pruitt, Norge Ruiz, and Collin Wiles. The Diamondbacks also announced the claim of Hernandez, while relaying that infielder Jake Hager and right-hander Keynan Middleton cleared waivers and elected free agency.

This is one of the times on the baseball calendar when roster turnover is high, for a couple of reasons. First, there is no injured list between the World Series and Spring Training, meaning that players on the 60-day IL will soon be retaking their spots. Secondly, the deadline to add prospects to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft is November 15. Those two factors both combine to squeeze certain players off rosters and onto waivers.

Hernandez, 25 in May, had spent all of his career in the Rangers organization until being traded to the D-Backs in April. He got into 12 MLB games this year, spending much more time in the minors. He hit .241/.349/.324 in 71 Triple-A games this year, wRC+ of 78. That’s not an especially impressive showing, but Hernandez fared much better in previous seasons and has always had good plate discipline. Despite the rough year, he still walked in 11.7% of his plate appearances and struck out in just 15.8% of them, with both of those numbers being much better than average. He’s never hit for much power though, having only hit five home runs in a minor league career that dates back to 2015. He still has options, meaning the A’s can keep him in the minors next year and try to see if they can draw something extra out of him.

Mondou, 28 in March, was just selected to the roster in October. He made his MLB debut by getting into one game where he made three hitless plate appearances, walking once and striking out once. In 108 Triple-A games, he hit .283/.374/.431 for a wRC+ of 105. Given his seven years of minor league experience, he will be eligible to elect free agency five days after the World Series.

Selman, 32 this month, has thrown 73 MLB innings over the past four seasons. He has a 4.81 ERA in that time with a 22.5% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate and 29.6% ground ball rate. He cut his walk rate to 6.7% in 2022 but also gave up four home runs in just 18 1/3 innings, leading to a 4.91 ERA. He’s eligible to elect free agency by virtue of having been previously outrighted in his career.

Pruitt, 33, signed a minor league deal with the A’s for 2022 and was twice selected to the roster with one DFA in between. He got into 55 1/3 innings on the season and registered a 4.23 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate was below average but he limited walks to a 4% rate and also got grounders on 45.5% of balls in play. He’s eligible to elect free agency both on account of his previous outrights and more than three years of service time.

Ruiz, 29 in March, was once a high-profile signing out of Cuba but saw his stock fade in recent years. A switch from starting to relieving in 2019 seemed to give him a boost, leading to him getting to make his MLB debut in 2022. He tossed 19 innings with a 7.11 ERA, though a .413 batting average on balls in play could indicate there’s some bad luck in there. He had a much nicer 3.73 ERA in 41 Triple-A innings. He should stick with the A’s as depth but without taking up a roster spot.

Wiles, 29 in May, got the call to the big leagues for the first time in September. He was able to log 9 2/3 MLB innings while putting up a 4.66 ERA in that small sample. He worked as a starter in the minors, logging 143 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 5.40 ERA. He limited walks to a 4.3% rate but was undone by 27 long balls in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Hager, 30 in March, appeared in 28 big league games for Arizona this year, hitting .240/.345/.280 in that time for a wRC+ of 84. He had fairly similar results in 72 Triple-A games, adding a bit more pop but walking less. He’s eligible to elect free agency based on the fact that he’s been previously outrighted in his career.

Middleton, 29, has appeared in each of the past six seasons, spending time with the Angels and Mariners before suiting up with the Diamondbacks in 2022. He tossed 17 innings in the majors and another 17 in Triple-A this year, with better results in the minors. He had a 5.29 ERA in the bigs along with a 2.12 ERA for Reno. He is eligible to elect free agency both because of he has more than three years of MLB service time and a previous career outright.

IL Placements: Brubaker, Middleton

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Catching up on some injured-list transactions around baseball…

  • The Pirates placed right-hander JT Brubaker on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 16.  Right-hander Luis Ortiz was called up to take Brubaker’s spot on the active roster.  Brubaker was officially listed as sidelined due to right arm inflammation, though lat soreness was given as the reason for his early exit from Thursday’s game, when he lasted just three innings.  Over 141 1/3 innings and 27 starts for the Bucs this season, Brubaker has a 4.58 ERA and some unimpressive Statcast numbers, though his SIERA is a more favorable 3.95.  His ability to eat innings could put him in the conversation for a spot in Pittsburgh’s rotation next season, even if he doesn’t make it back for one more start in 2022.
  • The Diamondbacks placed right-hander Keynan Middleton on the 15-day IL due to a sprained left big toe.  Righty Luis Frias was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  The toe sprain will likely end what has been an injury-plagued season for Middleton, who missed a couple of months due to elbow inflammation and a right ankle sprain.  Between the injuries and time in the minor leagues, Middleton was limited to 17 innings in 18 appearances with the D’Backs, and he posted a 5.29 ERA over that rather small sample size.  Now in his sixth MLB season, Middleton has yet to regain the early promise of his first two seasons with the Angels, before Tommy John surgery sidelined him in 2018.  He inked a minors deal with the D’Backs last winter and probably seems likely to be back on the open market this offseason in search of another non-guaranteed deal.

Diamondbacks Select Wilmer Difo, Designate Noe Ramirez

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The Diamondbacks announced they’ve selected infielder Wilmer Difo onto the big league roster. They’ve also reinstated relievers Keynan Middleton and Kyle Nelson from the 15-day injured list. To create space on the active and 40-man rosters, Arizona designated right-hander Noé Ramirez for assignment.

Difo gets his first MLB crack of the year, reaching the big leagues for what’ll be an eighth straight season. A switch-hitting middle infielder, Difo has decent contact skills but doesn’t offer much in the way of power production. He’s a .251/.313/.355 hitter in exactly 1300 MLB plate appearances split between the Nationals and Pirates, with the vast majority of that time coming in Washington. Difo has ample experience all throughout the infield, and he’s generally rated well in the eyes of public defensive metrics as a shortstop.

It’s been a similar story in Triple-A Reno this year. The 30-year-old has logged plenty of action at shortstop and third base, and he’s compiled a .269/.311/.398 line over 306 trips to the plate. Difo has struck out in just 13.4% of his plate appearances, but his lack of extra-base impact has been glaring in one of the more hitter-friendly environments in affiliated ball. He’ll nevertheless get a look on the strength of his glove, offering manager Torey Lovullo a defensive specialist off the bench for the stretch run. Difo will be arbitration-eligible this winter and could be kept around for next season, although he’s a likelier non-tender candidate given his journeyman status and below-average offensive showing in Triple-A.

Nelson and Middleton have each missed over a month dealing with injuries: back spasms for Nelson, an ankle strain for Middleton. The former has made 38 appearances during his first season in the desert, working to a sparkling 1.57 ERA in 34 1/3 innings but only striking out 20.5% of opponents. The latter has only pitched 12 times, pitching to a 1.64 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate in 11 frames.

With Nelson and Middleton returning to the bullpen, the D-Backs had to cut one of their incumbent pitchers. (Teams must devote one of the two extra roster spots in September to a position player). The veteran Ramirez finds himself as the odd man out after posting a lackluster 5.22 ERA through 50 innings. Ramirez has punched out 23.7% of batters faced on a solid 11.8% swinging strike percentage, but he’s also walked batters at an alarming 12.1% clip.

The 32-year-old Ramirez spent most of last season in Arizona as well. He signed a minor league deal after being released by the Angels and made the big league roster in June. Ramirez impressed enough down the stretch the D-Backs agreed to bring him back on a $1.25MM salary. They weren’t prepared to do so again this winter, and they’ll now place him on waivers in the next couple days.

If no other team wants to assume the remaining $240K on his contract, Ramirez is likely to head to the open market. He has more than five years of major league service time, giving him the right to refuse an outright assignment in favor of free agency while still collecting the remainder of his guaranteed salary.

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