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Kyle Gibson

Phillies Acquire Kyle Gibson, Ian Kennedy For Package Including Spencer Howard

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The Phillies struck a deadline deal to add a pair of quality arms — one each for the rotation and the bullpen. Philadelphia acquired starter Kyle Gibson and reliever Ian Kennedy from the Rangers, along with pitching prospect Hans Crouse. In return, the Phils are sending three players, including young righty Spencer Howard. Texas also added pitching prospects Kevin Gowdy and Josh Gessner.

After Max Scherzer and José Berríos were dealt, Gibson was perhaps the top remaining starter on the market. The Phils were known to be targeting pitching help, and they struck big with a package deal to address the middle of the rotation and the back end of the bullpen.

Gibson signed a three-year, $28MM deal with Texas over the 2019-20 offseason. It started inauspiciously, as he tossed 67 1/3 innings of 5.35 ERA ball during last year’s shortened season. However, the veteran righty flipped the script this season. After a rough Opening Day, Gibson got on a roll and eventually pitched his way to his first career All-Star selection with a fantastic first half. He’s hit a rough patch recently, but his overall line remains impressive.

The 33-year-old has worked 113 innings across 19 starts, pitching to a 2.87 ERA/4.46 SIERA. His run prevention numbers have been aided by opponents’ .267 batting average on balls in play and an elevated 79.7% strand rate. That said, Gibson has a long track record of inducing grounders, and he’s continued to do so this season. He’s a generally durable hurler who throws strikes at a decent rate and has had success limiting damaging contact.

Gibson’s not the top-of-the-rotation starter his ERA and All-Star nod might suggest at first glance. But he’s a dependable arm who can be counted on to log average or slightly better production. That’s an upgrade over the inconsistency that has plagued the back of the Philly rotations for the past few years.

Speaking of longstanding troubles in Philadelphia, the bullpen has again been a problem for the Phils. They’ll try to shore that up with Kennedy, who has made good on an offseason minor league deal. The veteran righty gave the Rangers 32 1/3 innings of 2.51 ERA ball, striking out a strong 27.8% of opposing hitters against a 5.6% walk rate. The deal turned out exactly as the rebuilding club had hoped, with Kennedy performing well enough to be flipped midseason to a contender.

Gibson is playing out the season on a $10MM salary (about $3.5MM of which remains to be paid out). He’s controllable affordably for 2022 at $7MM as part of a backloaded arrangement. Kennedy, meanwhile, locked in a $2.15MM base salary when he made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster and is due about $750K for the stretch run before hitting free agency at the end of the year.

The Rangers are reportedly including around $4MM in salary, which was critical for the Phillies as they looked to stay below the $210MM luxury tax threshold. Philadelphia’s luxury mark sits at around $204MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, so the front office successfully stayed below the figure in pulling off their big midseason additions.

Doing so will require parting ways with Howard, who has long been one of the organization’s (and league’s) top pitching prospects. Baseball America ranked the righty among MLB’s top thirty prospects entering both the 2020 and 2021 seasons. He’s bounced on and off the big league roster over the past couple years, tossing 52 2/3 innings of 5.81 ERA/4.81 SIERA ball.

Clearly, Howard has yet to find consistent major league success. But the 24-year-old is a well-regarded stating pitching prospect with a strong minor league track record. He’s performed very well over six starts at Triple-A Lehigh Valley this season and is a quality young arm around whom the Rangers can build as they continue their organizational retooling effort. Howard is controllable through at least the 2026 season, and future optional assignments could push back that trajectory.

Texas also adds a pair of pitchers who haven’t yet gotten to the big leagues. Gowdy is a former second-round draft choice, but the righty has yet to get out of the low minors. The 23-year-old has performed fairly well in High-A, though, tossing 61 innings of 4.43 ERA ball with strong strikeout and walk numbers (24.0% and 5.7%, respectively). Gessner, a former international signee out of Australia, has yet to advance beyond the complex level.

In a final twist, the Phillies add a prospect of their own. Crouse was a 2017 second-round draftee, and he’s spent the season in Double-A. The righty has tossed 51 innings with a 3.35 ERA at that level, punching out 27.7% of batters faced while walking 9.7% of opponents. Eric Logenhagen of FanGraphs wrote over the winter that Crouse’s injury history and atypical mechanics seem likely to push him to the bullpen, but noted that his repertoire depth could be good enough to give him a chance to stick as a starter. He’ll need to be added to the 40-man roster this winter or exposed to the Rule 5 draft.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Phillies were acquiring Gibson and Kennedy. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report that Howard was included as part of the deal. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported Gowdy’s and Gessner’s inclusions. Jeff Wilson reported the Rangers were including a prospect, whom Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported to be Crouse. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reported the Rangers were including approximately $4MM in cash considerations.

Kyle Gibson Rumors: Deadline Day

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Rangers right-hander Kyle Gibson is enjoying a career year, reaching his first All-Star Game and posting a 2.87 ERA and 50.8% grounder rate over 113 innings.  There are some red flags (a 4.46 SIERA and a below-average 20.4% strikeout rate), but for a veteran arm controlled through 2022 on an $8MM salary, Gibson has been drawing a lot of attention.  Here is the latest on Gibson as the deadline approaches…

Latest Updates

Earlier Today

  • The Rays may be the leaders to acquire Gibson, The Athletic’s Levi Weaver tweets.  Tampa Bay was initially linked to Gibson a few days ago, as the team has continued to overhaul its starting and relief pitching mix.
  • The Phillies are a new team in the Gibson sweepstakes, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that Philadelphia is “making a hard push” for Gibson’s services.  The Phils are known to be looking for help at the back end of their rotation, behind their top trio of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and the currently-injured Zach Eflin.
  • The Padres were also rumored to have interest in Gibson earlier this week, and they have “maintained” that interest heading into this afternoon, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin.  Twins right-hander Kenta Maeda is another name on San Diego’s radar, but the “price tag has been too high for the Padres’ liking,” which could indicate that the club is perhaps now turning more towards Gibson or other rotation options.

Brewers Interested In Trevor Story, Josh Donaldson, Kyle Gibson

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The Brewers are looking to add to their NL Central-leading roster, and are considering some big names.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links) reports that Milwaukee has shown interest in Twins third baseman Josh Donaldson and Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, and The Athletic’s Levi Weaver tweets that Rangers right-hander Kyle Gibson is also on the Brewers’ radar.

Brewers GM Matt Arnold indicated this past weekend that the team would look into adding some hitting help,  as the Brew Crew has managed their success despite middling numbers in most major offensive categories.  Of course, Milwaukee has already made two notable trades to land hitters, obtaining Rowdy Tellez from the Blue Jays earlier this month and landing Willy Adames as part of a four-player deal with the Rays way back in May.  Tellez has looked great in his brief (30 plate appearances) since joining the team, while Adames has been nothing less than spectacular in hitting .294/.388/.537 over 232 PA.

Adames would seemingly be locked in at the everyday shortstop, though adding Story could create an interesting dilemma about who plays the position.  Both players are strong defenders, and since Kolten Wong is one of the game’s better defensive second basemen, third base would be the most obvious landing spot for either Adames or Story.  Such contenders as the White Sox and Padres were known to be considering Story at other positions, and it could be that Milwaukee was another one of the teams thinking of a creative use of Story’s ability.

Of course, just acquiring an actual third baseman like Donaldson would be a cleaner way of upgrading the hot corner, though that trade would offer another of complications.  Story is a free agent after the season, while Donaldson is guaranteed at least $50MM through the end of the 2023 (with a club option for 2024 that would add another $8MM to the ledger).  Donaldson would also be owed a $2MM bonus in the event of a trade, and it isn’t known if the Brewers are one of the clubs on Donaldson’s five-team no-trade list.

Donaldson also turns 36 in December, making him a riskier proposition for such a long-term deal even though he is still delivering big production in his age-35 season.  The Brewers already have big money committed to Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, and Yelich has been hampered by injury over the last seasons while Cain has had two injury-plagued years sandwiched around his decision to opt out of most of the 2020 campaign.

It would stand to reason that the Twins would at least listen to offers involving getting a mid-30’s player off their own books.  That said, Minnesota doesn’t have much future money committed, and the Twins are reportedly not looking to move players controlled beyond this season since the team is planning to bounce back and contend again in 2022.

Gibson is himself controlled through 2022, but at a modest $8MM price tag for next year plus the remainder (roughly $3.2MM) of his 2021 salary.  While every team wants as much pitching as possible, Gibson might be something of a luxury for a Brewers team that has gotten great-to-solid results from its rotation.  Milwaukee could see adding Gibson as a way of limiting innings for everyone to keep the rotation fresh for the postseason, and to add further length and depth to the bullpen.  However, there are many other teams with more pressing pitching needs looking at Gibson, so it remains to be seen if the Brew Crew would be willing or able to outbid the field for the veteran righty.

Rays Interested In Max Scherzer, Kris Bryant, Kyle Gibson

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The Rays have already made one big pre-deadline splash in acquiring Nelson Cruz, and more major names seem to be on Tampa’s radar.  According to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan, the Rays “have had preliminary discussions about” Max Scherzer and Kris Bryant, while FanSided’s Robert Murray reports that the Rays are also one of the teams who have spoken to the Rangers about right-hander Kyle Gibson.

As always with Tampa Bay, payroll will be a critical factor in any acquisition, particularly since all of these players represent larger financial commitments than the Rays are usually willing to make.  As Passan notes, however, the Rays’ deep farm system can act as a counterweight to those salaries — the Nationals, Cubs, or Rangers could possibly cover most or all of the remaining salaries for their trade chips if the Rays were willing to include some of their higher-tier minor leaguers.  It can be reasonably assumed that Wander Franco is untouchable in trade talks, but beyond that, the Rays could be willing to budge on other noteworthy prospects if it meant landing a player that could help them win a World Series.

Scherzer presents a particularly interesting case, since the Nationals are solely responsible for the final $7.5MM installment of Scherzer’s original signing bonus, and the roughly $11.8MM remaining of his $35MM salary for 2021 is entirely deferred until 2028.  Beyond just kicking the financial can down the road for much of the decade, the Rays might very well even be in a new city (and have new revenue streams) available by that point, since the Rays’ lease at Tropicana Field is up in 2027.

Scherzer would have to okay the move to Tampa by waiving his no-trade clause, and recent reports suggest that he would be more open to playing for a team on the west coast.  This doesn’t necessarily mean Scherzer would veto a proposed move to Tampa Bay, but it is possible the Rays might not get the nod if Scherzer was presented with multiple trade options, such as a potential move to one of the NL West powers.

As one executive recently described matters to Murray, Gibson is maybe the “most unpredictable element” of deadline season.  While someone like Scherzer obviously has a more proven track record, Gibson has been very good in 2021 but has been much more up-and-down over the course of his eight MLB seasons.  Whereas Scherzer and Bryant are free agents after the season, Gibson is controlled through 2022, at the cost of a $7MM salary.  The Rays could see acquiring Gibson as a way of checking off one box for their offseason shopping needs….or, given how Tampa operates, they could flip Gibson themselves this winter to save payroll space.

The Cubs have already moved Joc Pederson and Andrew Chafin in trades, and several other players figure to be departing Wrigleyville prior to Friday’s 3pm CT deadline.  Bryant is widely expected to be dealt, though the shape of the Cubs’ other trades might contribute to what exactly Chicago does in moving the former NL MVP.  Should the Cubs move a significant amount of money off their books in other deals, the team could be more open to absorbing more of Bryant’s salary (around $6.8MM remaining) in order to obtain better prospects from the Rays.

Adding both Cruz and Bryant would represent a major boost to an already-solid Tampa Bay lineup, and Bryant also brings the versatility that a DH-only player like Cruz lacks.  The Rays’ penchant for defensive flexibility could see Bryant used at either corner infield position or anywhere in the outfield, depending on matchups and situations.  Any potential positional logjam could be alleviated by the trade itself, if the Rays sent a position player off their Major League roster back to the Cubs.

Latest On Padres’ Trade Targets

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Locked in a tight NL West race, the Padres are known to be looking for starting pitching and lineup help at the deadline.  This leaves a wide range of possibilities open for an aggressive general manager like A.J. Preller, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears that Preller’s front office has “has talked with other teams about scenarios ranging from the seemingly obvious to the implausible.”

That gamut might be reflected in two hitters Acee links to the Padres, as he reiterates that the club continues to be interested in Joey Gallo, long mentioned as a target for San Diego.  Beyond Gallo, however, Acee also notes that the Padres were one of the NL teams who had an interest in Nelson Cruz, before Minnesota sent the veteran slugger to the Rays in a trade earlier tonight.  It would’ve been bold to put Cruz (a DH-only player for the last three seasons) back in line for regular outfield duty, which might be why the Twins ultimately found the most interested suitor in an AL team that could deploy Cruz in his normal DH spot.

On the pitching front, the Padres are looking for multiple arms to aid a rotation that had been hit with injuries.  Acee writes that the targets are “both a potential innings eater and a starter who could be a viable option to start early in a playoff series.”  The Padres’ talks with the Rangers and Twins also involved such names as Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kenta Maeda.  San Diego has also had interest in Rockies right-hander Jon Gray and Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, though it is unclear if Duffy is still a consideration after he was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week.

Gray, Duffy, and Lyles are all pure rentals, as free agents after the season.  Duffy and Gray have pretty comparable overall metrics, and while Duffy’s 2.51 ERA is significantly better than Gray’s 3.68 ERA, Gray has 93 innings pitched to Duffy’s 61, as Duffy is in the midst of his second IL stint of the season.  Duffy also has full no-trade protection but the California native might be open to agreeing to be dealt back to his home state.  Gray has no such trade protection, though the Rockies’ willingness to move a notable player to a division rival could be a potential obstacle.

The biggest issue with acquiring Lyles is likely that the 30-year-old simply hasn’t pitched well over his two years in Texas, posting a 5.84 ERA in 165 innings since the start of the 2020 season.  A change of scenery could help Lyles regain the effectiveness he displayed in 2018-19, and Lyles is a familiar face for Preller, as the righty pitched for San Diego during the 2017 and 2018 campaigns.

A trade could also help Maeda escape the doldrums of a tough 2021 season, though the right-hander far from struggled in his first year in Minnesota, finishing second in 2020 AL Cy Young Award voting.  Maeda missed a little over three weeks with a groin injury this year, and has pitched better over his last three starts, with a 1.69 ERA over his last 16 innings.

Maeda is no stranger to the NL West after spending his first four MLB seasons with the Dodgers, and he also has the most contractual control of any of the five pitchers known to be on San Diego’s radar.  Maeda is owed only $3MM in guaranteed money in each of the 2022 and 2023 season, but several millions more are available in incentives based on innings pitched and games started.  The overall price tag is still quite reasonable, and as much as Maeda hasn’t been a front-of-the-rotation type in 2021, his contract and his past track record make him a good trade chip.  Of course, this assumes that Minnesota would be open to a trade for anything more than a very generous offer, as the Twins are reportedly not very interested in dealing anything beyond rental players.

Gibson is also controlled beyond 2021, as he still has a full year remaining (worth $7MM) on the three-year, $28MM free agent deal he inked with the Rangers in the 2019-20 offseason.  With a 2.86 ERA over his first 107 innings, Gibson is on pace for a career year, and he already was named an All-Star for the first time in his nine MLB seasons.  Gibson doesn’t miss many bats, however, and both his Statcast profile and overall career numbers don’t much help the argument that he can keep up this borderline ace production over the course of a full season, or into 2022.

What the Padres would be willing to give up for any of these players (or any deadline target) is still up in the air.  The club is close to the $210MM luxury tax threshold already but they reportedly have the ability to cross that threshold, so money might not be the most pressing issue for deadline acquisitions.  In regards to moving prospects, Acee hears that the Padres aren’t willing to move any of their top four minor leaguers — presumably MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Luis Campusano, or Robert Hassell — and might even look to add some more young talent in deals, though obviously the Padres wouldn’t be “deadline sellers” by any stretch of the imagination.

Speculatively, San Diego could look into some type of complex multi-player deal that would see them acquire a package that includes at least one notable MLB player that can help them win now, as well as a minor leaguer or two.  The inclusion of prospects could perhaps make it easier for the Padres to move one of their better minor leaguers as part of a trade.

Quick Hits: Sticky Stuff Crackdown, Cardinals, Verlander

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As we approach trade season, teams are burdened with the overwhelming task of re-evaluating the league in the wake of the crackdown on illegal substances. Broad strokes, evaluators will be more trusting of pitchers who rely on two-seamers and sinkers, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Unsurprisingly, those pitchers who have taken to the recent trend of high-velocity heaters up in the zone and wicked curveballs diving away will be watched more closely. The next month will obviously provide important data points for potential buyers, but looking at how players have struggled and/or succeeded in the first few months of the year will also be heavily scrutinized by teams looking to find players on the rebound. In other MLB news….

  • The Cardinals are doing their best to patch together a rotation in the wake of Jack Flaherty’s extended absence, but they’re also exploring their options outside the organization. They have reached out to the Twins about Jose Berrios and the Rangers for Kyle Gibson, but the price for Berrios was “high,” and presumably, the same will be true of Gibson, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. With very few difference-making arms likely to be available, Berrios and Gibson are sure to be in high demand. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak spoke of the Cardinals’ desire to win, but “not at the cost of our future.” While that’s a reasonable mode of thinking, such a mind-set isn’t likely to procure an arm like Berrios or Gibson.
  • Justin Verlander hasn’t rule out the possibility of returning to the Detroit Tigers before his career runs out, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Of course, Verlander needs to get healthy first. He will be a free agent at the end of the season, however, free to pursue a return to Detroit, should that be his desire. Verlander played in Detroit for 13 seasons. He ranks 2nd in Tigers’ history for rWAR among pitchers, 2.7 rWAR behind Hal Newhouser. He is fifth in Tigers’ history in games started with 380 and 2nd in total strikeouts with 2,373.

Rangers Activate Kyle Gibson From 10-Day Injured List

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The Rangers announced that Kyle Gibson has been activated off the 10-day injured list, and the right-hander will start tonight’s game against the Rays.  The corresponding roster move happened yesterday, when left-hander Wes Benjamin was optioned to Triple-A.  Gibson’s IL placement (due to a right groin strain) took place on May 25 and was backdated to May 22, so he’ll end up missing only slightly beyond the 10-day minimum.

The Rangers will surely welcome the quick return of a pitcher who has somewhat unexpectedly become the ace of their rotation.  After a lackluster 2020 season, Gibson has posted a 2.24 ERA over 60 1/3 innings this season, aided by a 52.7% grounder rate and perhaps some batted-ball luck in the form of a .234 BABIP.  Gibson’s SIERA is two runs higher at a still-respectable 4.24.

Should Gibson maintain this performance, he’ll draw a lot of attention at the trade deadline.  MLBTR’s Steve Adams ranked Gibson eighth on the most recent listing of the top 40 trade deadline candidates, noting that Gibson’s contract (he is owed roughly $5.88MM for the rest of this season and owed $7MM in 2022) makes him a pretty inexpensive pickup for most contenders.

Rangers Place Kyle Gibson On Injured List

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The Rangers announced a series of roster moves Tuesday, most notably placing right-hander Kyle Gibson on the 10-day injured list due to a right groin strain. Texas also placed righty Hunter Wood on the IL with a fairly ominous designation of “right elbow discomfort.” Gibson’s placement is retroactive to May 22, while Wood’s is backdated to May 23. No timeline was provided for either pitcher, though Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that the initial hope is Gibson will only be forced to miss a pair of starts. In their place, lefty Wes Benjamin and righty Demarcus Evans were recalled from Triple-A.

It’s a sudden and unexpected development for the Rangers, though the expectation of a relatively brief absence is good news for the club and its fans. Gibson, 33, was absolutely shelled for five runs in a third of an inning in his 2021 debut, but he’s been one of the best pitchers on the planet in nine starts since that time. Dating back to April 7, the longtime Twins righty has pitched to a 1.50 ERA with a 20.3 percent strikeout rate, a 6.9 percent walk rate and a 52.7 percent ground-ball rate.

The 2021 season is the second of three in a $28MM contract Gibson inked with Texas back in the 2019-20 offseason. The first of his three years on the deal didn’t go well at all — 5.35 ERA in 67 1/3 innings — but like Mike Minor and Lance Lynn before him in Texas, he’s now exceeded all expectations on a three-year pact that surprised some onlookers. For a Rangers club that is 22-27 at the moment, losing its best starter even for a brief period of time is a notable hit to absorb.

Of course, the Rangers weren’t expected to contend this season anyhow, as the club has been outspoken about its decision to move in a younger direction. With that in mind, Gibson’s run of excellence and a contract that now looks eminently affordable would make him one of this summer’s most obvious trade candidates — provided today’s injury indeed proves to be minor in nature. Should he require a lengthier stint, experience a setback in rehab and/or deal with additional groin issues down the road, that could adversely impact the Rangers’ ability to extract a strong return in a trade.

Wood, 27, signed a minor league deal with the Rangers and was called to the big league club not long ago. He’s tossed five innings and held the opposition to a pair of runs, making for a fine start to his Texas tenure. The right-hander has a solid track record at the MLB level, having compiled a 3.34 ERA in 91 2/3 frames between Tampa Bay, Cleveland and his new surroundings in Texas. The hope, as always, is that the elbow discomfort proves to be minor, but the lack of specificity suggests the Rangers will perform additional testing to determine what’s at play.

The Rangers’ New-Look Rotation Has Big-Time Upside

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Historically, pitching has not been a strength of the Texas Rangers. The franchise has consistently found itself sorely lacking true aces; outside of Nolan Ryan, there aren’t really any iconic pitchers that come to mind when you think of the Rangers. Kenny Rogers, anyone?

That trend held true once again last year, with the Rangers posting an overall 5.09 ERA that ranked seventh-worst in baseball. That said, Lance Lynn and Mike Minor anchored the top of the rotation admirably, each garnering Cy Young consideration and holding the staff intact during the hot Texas summer.

But when the 2020 season boots up, Lynn and Minor will have some help, and starting pitching may indeed be a strength for this year’s iteration of the team. GM Jon Daniels and company made a concerted effort in the winter to acquire starting pitchers—and they did so at relatively little cost, meaning that a bit of short-term ambition likely won’t impeach on the franchise’s future plans.

Corey Kluber is the big-name addition, and the two-time Cy Young winner should do plenty to bolster the Rangers’ staff. Even so, the team didn’t mortgage the future to bring him aboard: Kluber is only guaranteed a contract for this year, with a vesting option that could keep him in Texas through 2021. Coming off a season in which he could pitch in just seven games, he was acquired in exchange for Delino DeShields and Emmanuel Clase, a move that was widely praised at the time and looks even worse for Cleveland in light of Clase’s PED suspension.

But the smaller-scale signings of Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, while not deserving of the same attention as the acquisition of a decade-defining pitcher like Kluber, could together have just as great an impact on the Rangers’ success as Kluber. In the offseason, Lyles signed on with a two-year, $16MM deal, while Gibson earned himself a three-year contract worth $28MM. Together, they’ll make $19MM in 2020, just a hair more than Kluber’s salary.

Lyles has been around forever, it seems, breaking in as a young arm with the Astros and Rockies, but it took until his age-28 season for him to put it all together as a starter. After a slow start with the Pirates earned him a trade to Milwaukee, he put up career-best numbers, striking out 146 batters in 141 innings, an unprecedented rate for Lyles.

How come? The simple version is that Lyles began relying less and less on his sinker, a staple in his repertoire throughout the early stages of his career. His sinker usage dropped to a minuscule 1.7% last year while he threw four-seam fastballs 50.2% of the time, more than he ever had before. The curveball also became a more important weapon in his pitch mix.

That isn’t too unlike the formula that Lance Lynn rode to his career-best 2019 season. Just like Lyles, Lynn’s sinker usage hit a career low last year, replaced almost entirely by four-seam fastballs—largely in the upper part of the strike zone. This isn’t unique to the Rangers—the Astros’ unparalleled pitching brilliance hinges on this philosophy—and it’s a trend that has redefined the way we look at pitching in MLB.

It’s an approach that worked for the Rangers last year, Lynn’s first in Texas, and perhaps Daniels is confident that his staff can use it to produce similar results with Lyles and Gibson this year. Sure enough, the sinker has been Gibson’s most-used pitch through his first five years as a big-leaguer. Sound familiar? Granted, Gibson’s four-seamer hasn’t been a great pitch for him, but throwing fewer sinkers could in turn lead to a jump in his slider usage, a high-spin pitch that may be a hidden gem.

Still, pitching at the MLB level is not as simple as flipping a switch and saying, “sinker bad, four-seam good.” That approach can’t be uniformly applied to every pitcher in baseball with the same results; there’s a reason careers have been forged around the sinker. And yet, the proliferation of the high fastball in MLB lends credence to its value, and the Rangers may have pursued the likes of Gibson and Lyles with that style in mind.

But that’s only half the battle; the burden then falls on the coaching staff and players themselves to accept and implement adjustments. It’s why we still play the games when there’s such a wealth of knowledge out there. So we’ll anxiously await the 2020 season to see whether the on-field results look as good as the ideas that underpin them.

Rangers Notes: Rendon Offer, Lyles

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The Rangers were in on free agent Anthony Rendon to the tune of $32MM per year for six years, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. The total 6-year, $192MM package landed a year and $53MM short of the winning bid. Heyman points out that the lack of an income tax in Texas put the dollar value of the Rangers’ offer more-or-less in-line with the contract Rendon ultimately signed. The extra year made the difference for both player and team in this case. Rendon will turn 37-years-old in June of his seventh contract year with the Angels.

Though they’ve yet to land a big bat (and reportedly will not push to sign Josh Donaldson), the Rangers have made strides to improve their rotation with the additions of Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. While reliable rotation arms don’t equate to a star signing like Rendon, for the Rangers, they are critical additions. Of course, part of this gambit assumes Lyles pitches more like he did in Milwaukee (2.45 ERA) and less like he did in Pittsburgh (5.36 ERA).

The sky is the ceiling when pitchers switch teams nowadays, however, as the reworking of arsenals and usage patterns has rapidly become the norm. For Lyles, much of the improvement his experienced in Milwaukee can be attributed to moving from a sinker to a four-seamer and swapping out a slider for a curveball, per Evan Grant of the Dallas News. The Rangers also see Lyles as a sort of developmental descendent of Lance Lynn, who made a similar switch to a four-seamer in Texas. The Rangers believe Lynn will be a positive influence for Lyles as he tries to perform with more consistency.

For his part, Lyles credits the urgency of a playoff push and his chemistry with catcher Yasmani Grandal as a driving factor of his late-season success. The Rangers’ catching situation is far from settled, with Jeff Mathis the closest defensive equivalent to Grandal in terms of pedigree. It will be an uphill battle for the Rangers’ to put themselves in the playoff race, though Gibson and Lyles raising the floor of the rotation goes a long way to fixing the issues of 2019. Still, the Astros, A’s, and Angels are all pushing for contention, while the Mariners are gearing up for a push in 2021.

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